Talk Elections

So there.

Likely Democratic

NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)

Lean Democratic

AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup

AK-AL (Don Young - R)
CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
PA-03 (Phil English - R)
PA-12 (Jack Murtha - D)

Pure Tossup

CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
FL-08 (Ric Keller - R)
FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart - R)
ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann - R)
NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)

Republican-Leaning Tossup

AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart - R)
MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)

Lean Republican

IN-03 (Mark Souder - R)
MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
NE-02 (Lee Terry - R)
VA-02 (Thelma Drake - R)
VA-05 (Virgil Goode - R)
WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)

Likely Republican

AZ-03 (John Shadegg - R)
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
IA-04 (Tom Latham - R)
KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
SC-01 (Henry Brown - R)


Democratic Pickups:

1. NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
2. NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
3. AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
4. OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
5. FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
6. VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
7. IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
8. OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
9. MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
10. NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
11. AK-AL (Don Young - R)
12. CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
13. MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
14. NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
15. NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
16. PA-03 (Phil English - R)
17. NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
18. NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
19. FL-08 (Ric Keller - R)
20. CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
21. MN-06 (Michele Bachmann - R)
22. NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
23. IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
24. CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
25. MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
26. OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
27. ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
28. FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart - R)

Possible Democratic Pickups:

29. WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
30. FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart - R)
31. NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
32. AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
33. MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
34. MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
35. VA-05 (Virgil Goode - R)
36. NE-02 (Lee Terry - R)
37. VA-02 (Thelma Drake - R)
38. WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
39. IN-03 (Mark Souder - R)
40. KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
41. AZ-03 (John Shadegg - R)
42. IA-04 (Tom Latham - R)
43. SC-01 (Henry Brown - R)

Republican Pickups:

1. FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
2. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
3. TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)

Possible Republican Pickups:

4. NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
5. GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
6. PA-12 (Jack Murtha - D)
7. KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
8. LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
9. AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
10. PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)

You forgot nancy boydas seat.

You put Chris Murphy that high?  His district actually went for John Kerry and is likely to go big for Obama.  Not to mention the fact that he won by 10 points over a popular long time incumbent. 

The open seat in NJ-7 is held by Mike Ferguson, Scott Garrett is the incumbent in NJ-5

She's under pure tossup (KS-02).


It's a 50-50 district, and what's her face self-destructed with those ridiculous ads. I don't expect it to be seriously competitive, but Cappiello is raising some serious dough.

Also, thanks for the correction of the retiring Mr. Ferguson's name.

I'd still put PA-6 at least on the horizon.  If we had our act together there with Mike Gerber or Andy Dinniman, the seat would be a pure Tossup, if not lean Dem.

Dinniman - Sure. Toss up/lean Dem

Gerber - Don't be so sure about that.

PA 6 is basically done for you guys. Gerlach has weathered every major storm. Giving him a joke opponent in 2008 seals the deal.

But running Dinniman would likely cost Democrats his Senate seat. 

I agree with Phil. Don't worry, it won't happen again.

Id pretty much say that Roggio is on par with who Republicans put up in PA-07 and PA-08.

Absolutely but what do you care? I wonder how much the state Dems would care anyway. They're at such a disadvantage in that chamber anyway.

They cannot afford to be losing seats in the Senate when they are already down 21-29. 

It's only a matter of time before they lose that one (and others) anyway.

I dont think they could possibly go any lower.  Especially considering all of the Dem leaning districts Republicans hold in the Philly suburbs. 

They're probably going to lose one out west due to Bonusgate. One of the guys involved is a State Representative running for an open Democratic seat. He refuses to step down as a candidate.

Is this the Beaver county based seat?  I have a hard time seeing how a Republican gets elected in a Democratic stronghold like Beaver County and dont say Melissa Hart, because her district included very Republican areas in Butler county to balance the district off. 

This scandals are a big deal out there. The Democratic leader of the House is in a very strong Democratic seat. He almost lost last time. He's probably going to lose this time. The Democratic Whip (who is also involved with Bonusgate) lost last time because of the pay raise. His seat was also a strong Democratic seat.

Where were and are these seats?  Which counties?

Beaver showed in 2006 that it is more than happy to throw out dodgy Democrats. And Veon's former district is more Democratic than the county as whole (and looks very like an incumbent-protection gerrymander as well).

Veon (lost in 2006) - 14th district - Beaver county

DeWeese - 50th district - Fayette, Greene and Washington counties

Exactly and Marshall won by about eight points. Now who knows if he'll lose this year but it just goes to show you that Democratic candidates involved in scandal don't always find a way to win in these areas.

Are Democrats likely to get back the 14th in a Presidential year or did they fumble this one as well?

Yes, Scandal is normally detrimental to campaigns unless it's one in San Francisco.

That's the one I referenced in my post responding to Al. Everyone believed that Marshall would be gone after one term; that the voters just wanted to be rid of Veon and would wait two years for another Democrat. I don't know the state of Marshall's race though. I'll try to find out.

DeWeese is going to lose if he stays around until November. There are calls for his resignation as leader. If he did that, I bet he'd just leave the House as well. If he sticks around, I don't see how he wins. DeWeese was unopposed in his primary and still had to spend hundreds of thousands. Why? He needed to win back the confidence of Democrats. It didn't work that well. 25% of Democrats wrote in his GOP opponent (the same guy from 2006) against DeWeese.

It looks as if the voter registration in that district is so Democratic that DeWeese could lose 25% of Dems and still win, but its unlikely. 

He's in a lot more trouble than he was in 2006. He only won by six points in 2006. He's done.

It looks like Bob Casey won here by about 64%-36% in the 2006 Senate race.  DeWeese ran about 11 points behind Casey. 

Winning by 6 points is a decent margin, Phil. I wouldn't rule him out yet.

Johnny, you mocked Sam Spade and me for being self-important enough to have our own threads, and then you created your own thread? Nice one! :P Just like “conservative” Republicans preaching fiscal discipline and then running up record deficits.

Your list is solid, but I see a couple of questionable rankings. Starting with Democrats, why are PA-11 and AZ-08 (home to two of the few blue-chip GOP recruits) ranked below MS-01 (Greg Davis still the GOP nominee) and CA-11 (Andal is embroiled in a nasty scandal and his fundraising is mediocre)? Gillibrand faces a self-funder who was once New York’s SOS (read: he already has decent name ID), so I’d move that race up to Lean Democratic. Finally, Bill Foster is running against Oberweis again. Bump that race way down your list. If Lauzen were the nominee, I could understand “Lean Democratic” for IL-14, but Oberweis has basically given up and Obama is a huge help there.

I mostly agree with your Pure Tossup rankings. You’re a little more sanguine about NM-01 than I am (I just don’t think the liberal Anglo has the juice to win over fickle independents and Hispanics). WA-08 is a little too high, but that’s no big deal.  AL-02 should be moved down for reasons  already outline by Spade, and I’d move NC-08 and NV-03 up, too. I just can’t see Jon “luckiest incumbent this side of Jim Gerlach” Porter in the same category as CA-04, which is hard-core conservative territory. If Charlie Brown couldn’t defeat Doolittle in 2006, how can he defeat conservative hero McClintock in a POTUS year?

Some other notes –you may be underestimating the competitiveness of CO-04, FL-24, and MI-09. The same enviros that took out Pombo last cycle are now after Musgrave.  The DCCC will spend big there and the Democrats have a top-notch candidate with no personal problems or voting record for GOP operatives to pick through. FL-24 is a scandal seat to watch and MI-09 is the other enviro target race. The LCV and Defenders of Wildlife are surprisingly adroit at politicking – when they target someone, they defeat that politician over 70% of the time.

Welcome to the Congressional prognosticating party, I hope you’ll drop by a couple more times before E-Day.

Ive been going through some numbers for PA-HD-50 and that district is far more Democratic than I thought it was.  Although Kerry won it just 51%-48% in 2004, Gore won it 55%-42% and Dukakis won it 65%-34%!!  Hell, even Walter Mondale won it 61%-39%. 

I live in NY-20 and believe me, once the DCCC starts running ads showing Treadwell and Bush at the GOP convention in 2004, he will be toast. 

I agree, but don't you think that it should be rated above MS-01? Also, let's hope the DCCC doesn't have to bail out Gillibrand. Doesn't she already have the largest CoH of any frosh?

It should be rated above MS-01, but would put it somewhere between lean and likely Dem.  Im pretty sure if polls show Treadwell very close or ahead, the DCCC would be on the air hammering him or would be forcing Gillibrand to do so. 

Which is horrible for DeWeese.

Off topic - Note how well Swann did - 45% of the vote.

MS-01 is likely Dem. Davis raised like 10K since the special election. He has given up.

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm skeptical of Barletta's ability to win, but I think Kanjorski can lose if he's incompetent enough. Plus Kanjorski's got a lot more money. Tim Bee's lurching to the right, inexplicably, causing Jim Kolbe to drop his support. I don't think Sandy Treadwell is that strong a candidate outside of his pocketbook (Sec of State isn't elected in New York -- how many people actually know who that is? I couldn't tell you who Virginia's Secretary of the Commonwealth is). I agree that Foster is probably safer than lean D, but Oberweis still has more money than he is, so he's still investing more into his race than Greg Davis is into MS-01.

AL-02 and CA-04 are probably going to fall down the list eventually. For now, the Democratic candidates have more cash on hand, but that will probably change.

I generally don't think Republican incumbents are in much danger this time around, with a few exceptions like Walberg and Reichert. I don't think Robin Hayes is going to be caught off-guard this time, and I'd like to wait and see whether MI-09 or FL-24 gets any more competitive than just an opponent with strong fundraising. Musgrave also seems to be hard to beat.

Wow, NY-20 is much larger than I thought it was.  I vacationed in the northern section, very conservative, but those suburbs around Albany might be very liberal.  Anyone know the partisan breakdown?  BTW, there are some places in that district that are 4 hour drives apart from each other, pretty amazing for a state with congressional districts that last mere blocks.

The most Democrat part of the CD is Columbia county; the Democrat-voting parts of Rensselaer   are in the 21st district. Elsewhere, Saratoga Springs has a large Democrat vote but is usually outvoted by the rest of Saratoga county, the north of Dutchess county has quite a few Democrats and while the part of Otsego in the district is mostly Republican it's not without Democrats either. But this is a district that is "supposed" to be held by a Republican. And was obviously drawn for that purpose.

Thank you

Never really thought of Saratoga as a Democratic area, would have picked the immediate suburbs of Albany if I had to guess.   Hopefully a GOP candidate can take it back in 2010

I have hunch that FL-24 will surprise. Feeney won only 59% against a complete lunatic in 2006, and he has been out raised this year. Furthermore, he's never been well-liked generally in Florida, and while it is a Republican district he is arguably both too far right and too abrasive to be secure.  He also has Abramoff baggage that makes him vulnerable to an October scandal dump.

I actually think he is in a very similar situation to Pombo last year. Republican district, but not overwelmingly so, incumbent with many enemies who fails to take any seriously, lots of scandals, interest groups that want the incumbent out etc.

And Kosmas is a stronger candidate than McNerney was by far.

CA-04 moved to Likely Republican from Leans Republican - Tom McClintock sucks, but hell, the district voted for Doolittle, and McClintock isn't even scandal-plagued.

MO-06 moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
MO-09 moved to Republicans on the Horizon from Likely Republican - Republicans wisely avoided nominating the Club for Growther, so MO-09 is more likely a lock. Meanwhile, Kay Barnes is winnowing down Graves' lead, but he's still the favorite.

NV-03 moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican - Dina Titus is running a much better campaign than in 2006.

PA-11 moved to Lean Democratic from Democrats on the Horizon - If Kanjorski survives, he needs to be primaried in 2010.

TX-22 moved to Lean Republican from Republican-Leaning Tossup - Pete Olson's only deficiency was money, then he had a Bush fundraiser.

Watch List

OR-05 (open seat held by Darlene Hooley - D)
CT-05 (Chris Murphy - D)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez - D)
NH-01 (Paul Hodes - D)


Likely Democratic

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell - D)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
IN-09 (Baron Hill - D)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney - D)
MS-01 (Travis Childers - D)
KY-03 (John Yarmuth - D)
NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand - D)
IL-14 (Bill Foster - D)


Lean Democratic

NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
WI-08 (Steve Kagen - D)
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords - D)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)




Democratic-Leaning Tossup

AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire - D)
IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)



Pure Tossup
NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
Slight Dem tilt line
OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
AK-AL (Don Young - R)
slight GOP tilt line
OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)

Republican-Leaning Tossup

MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)

Lean Republican

AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)

Likely Republican

NY-26 (open seat held by Tom Reynolds - R)
CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
LA-04 (open seat held by Jim McCrery - R)
MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
MO-06 (Sam Graves - R)
OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)



Watch List

OH-02 (Jean Schmidt - R)
MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)


I've ordered them (for example, I see Bill Foster in more danger than Harry Mitchell)

More bad news for DeWeese:

http://www.politickerpa.com/wallyedgepa/1129/tally-board-deweese-resigning-leadership-postion
http://www.politicker.com/poll-voters-want-deweese-step-down-think-legislature-doing-poor-job

Oh, believe me, I know. It's always something/someone new everyday.

Its not surprising that going back to the 80's this district was Heavilly Democratic but since then the trend in Western PA has been toward the GOP. Swann did out perform his statewide showing in this area. On the US House scale The 4th district was won by both Swann and Santorum even while Hart was losing. Thats why I think Altmire is endanger and will lose in 2010 if not 2008.

Casey won PA-04 55%-45% in 2006. 

Thats what you get when you trust second hand Info. I wish this site had CD based results for all the races including Senate. I knew Santorum performed better in that area then he did Statewide and he did by about 7 or 8. Thanks for those numbers?

There is no way Santorum got over 46% in this district.  Santorum got just 38% of the vote in Beaver county and 42% in Lawrence county.  As a whole, these two counties cast about 38% of the total district vote.  This would mean that Santorum had to win the rest of the district handily. 

Well at least he won Susquehanna County, were I was born, abeit 51%-48%. He got over 60% there in 2000.

Susquehanna is in PA-10.

Several changes to my list:


AK-AL moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
AZ-05 dropped from list
AZ-08 dropped from list
CO-04 moved to Pure Tossup from Likely Republican
CT-05 dropped from list
FL-16 moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
FL-21 added to list at Lean Republican
FL-24 moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
IL-14 moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
KS-02 moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
MI-09 moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
MS-01 moved to Democrats on the Horizon from Likely Democratic
WA-08 moved to Lean Republican from Republican-Leaning Tossup

Many updates, not that anyone cares:

AK-AL - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup
CT-04 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Leans Republican
FL-16 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
FL-24 - moved to Pure Tossup from Leans Republican
GA-08 - moved to Democrats on the Horizon from Likely Democratic
IL-14 - moved to Democrats on the Horizon from Likely Democratic
LA-06 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
MS-01 - dropped from list
NH-01 - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
NY-13 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
NY-20 - dropped from list
NY-26 - moved to Republicans on the Horizon from Likely Republican
OH-01 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Likely Republican
OH-15 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
OH-16 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
PA-11 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic
TX-23 - dropped from list

What does on the horizon mean again? lol.  I'm very interested in my state's district 1 race.

It means I don't expect it to end up being close, but there's a sliver of a chance of it being competitive. I'm very skeptical of MD-01; I grew up on the Eastern Shore and I know how culturally conservative the place is.

Yea but I'm really hoping that a moderate Democratic challenger coupled with a far right Republican and the endorsement of the outgoing Republican Congressman for the Democrat could give Kravotil a shot.

The list, she is updated:

CO-04 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
FL-08 - added to list at Likely Republican
FL-16 - moved to Lean Republican from Lean Democratic
FL-21 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
FL-25 - added to list at Likely Republican
IL-10 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
KY-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
LA-06 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
MD-01 - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
MI-07 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
MI-09 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
NJ-03 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic
NM-01 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
NM-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
NC-08 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
NY-29 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
PA-03 - added to list at Democratic-Leaning Tossup
PA-04 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
PA-10 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
TX-22 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
WI-08 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic

AK-AL - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Lean Democratic
CA-11 - dropped from list
CT-04 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
FL-08 - dropped from list
FL-16 - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican
FL-24 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
FL-25 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
GA-08 - dropped from list
ID-01 - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
IL-14 - droped from list
IN-09 - dropped from list
KY-02 - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican
KY-03 - dropped from list
LA-04 - dropped from list (December election)
MO-06 - dropped from list
MO-09 - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon
NV-03 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
NY-26 - dropped from list
OH-02 - dropped from list
OH-16 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
OR-05 - dropped from list
PA-04 - dropped from list
WI-08 - dropped from list
WY-AL - moved to Likely Republican from Republicans on the Horizon

Okay, time to get serious. I've dropped every district from the list where I don't think there's a realistic shot of a switch. I've also added a list of projected pickups (in order of likelihood), potential pickups, and depending on the party, wave pickups or upsets. My conservative estimate, at this exact moment, is a net 13 seat pickup for the Democrats.

I'd be wary of dropping Fl-08. Keller seems to be in real trouble this year.

Yes and I think he will lose. 

Thanks to Michele Bachmann's stupidity, she's been added to the list, and I've shifted some of the races to possible pickup territory.

Big shift to the Dems, since I smell a landslide brewing. Also added a few longshots to Likely Republican.

AZ-03 - added to list at Likely Republican
FL-24 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
FL-08 - added to list at Pure Tossup
ID-01 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
IL-11 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
IN-03 - added to list at Likely Republican
MD-01 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
MI-09 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
MN-06 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
NE-02 - added to list at Likely Republican
NV-03 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
NH-01 - moved to Democratic-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
NM-02 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
TX-22 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
VA-02 - added to list at Likely Republican
VA-11 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
WA-08 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
WY-AL - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican

As I have no idea which seats are open / marginal (if someone could post a link to a spreadsheet that lists the results from 2006 by state I'd be happy), so will make a guess based on totals

House
Dem make 15 net gains

Senate
Dem make 5 net gains

I know CO-6 is a very republican district but it is open this year. Any chance the democrat could get close there? How are the candidates? I know Musgrave is basically done but getting Tancredo's seat would be especially sweet.

Nope. The Republican running isn't from the ideologue wing of the CO GOP and has been elected statewide as both State Treasurer and Secretary of State. He's a safe bet for election.

New updated list
GOP Pickukps
Watch List

IN-09 (Baron Hill - D)


Likely Democratic

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell - D)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney - D)
MS-01 (Travis Childers - D)
NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand - D)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire - D)



Lean Democratic

WI-08 (Steve Kagen - D)
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords - D)
AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)
PA-12 (John Murtha- D)
AK-AL (Don Young - R)
AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup

OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)


Pure Tossup
MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
Slight Dem tilt line
WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
FL-08 (Ric Keller- R)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart- R)
PA-03 (Phil English- R)
OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
slight GOP tilt line
OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)



Republican-Leaning Tossup
NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
NY-26 (open seat held by Tom Reynolds - R)

Lean Republican
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann- R)
MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart- R)

Likely Republican

LA-04 (open seat held by Jim McCrery - R)
MO-06 (Sam Graves - R)
NV-02 (Dean Heller- R)



Watch List
OH-02 (Jean Schmidt - R)
MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan- R)
Dem Pickups

Hooray for updates:

CA-04 - moved to Pure Tossup from Likely Republican
GA-08 - added to list at Democratic-Leaning Tossup
FL-21 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
FL-25 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
IN-03 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
IA-04 - added to list at Likely Republican
MO-09 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
NY-25 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
OH-01 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup
OH-15 - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic-Leaning Tossup
SC-01 - added to list at Likely Republican
TX-22 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
VA-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
VA-05 - added to list at Likely Republican
WA-08 - moved to Pure Tossup from Republican-Leaning Tossup

Is that your personal list?

List is in the OP; those are my latest updates.

Last update barring any surprises on Monday.

AL-02 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
ID-01 - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican
MD-01 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Lean Republican
NJ-07 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
PA-12 - added to list at Democratic-Leaning Tossup

Last-minute changes:

NE-02 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
PA-10 - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
PA-11 - moved to Republican-Leaning Tossup from Pure Tossup
VA-05 - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican

Also fiddled with the pickup lists; it's now a net 25-seat gain for the Dems.

Well, let's see how I did. Bold ones I got right, strikethroughs (on the sure pickups lists) I whiffed, and the ones that are still in question are italicized. First, for the Dems:

Democratic Pickups:

1. NY-13 (open seat held by Vito Fossella - R)
2. NY-25 (open seat held by J.T. Walsh - R)
3. AZ-01 (open seat held by Rick Renzi - R)
4. OH-16 (open seat held by Ralph Regula - R)
5. FL-24 (Tom Feeney - R)
6. VA-11 (open seat held by Tom Davis - R)
7. IL-11 (open seat held by Jerry Weller - R)
8. OH-15 (open seat held by Deb Pryce - R)
9. MI-07 (Tim Walberg - R)
10. NC-08 (Robin Hayes - R)
11. AK-AL (Don Young - R)
12. CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave - R)
13. MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg - R)
14. NM-01 (open seat held by Heather Wilson - R)
15. NV-03 (Jon Porter - R)
16. PA-03 (Phil English - R)
17. NJ-03 (open seat held by Jim Saxton - R)
18. NY-29 (Randy Kuhl - R)
19. FL-08 (Ric Keller - R)
20. CT-04 (Chris Shays - R)
21. MN-06 (Michele Bachmann - R)
22. NM-02 (open seat held by Steve Pearce - R)
23. IL-10 (Mark Kirk - R)
24. CA-04 (open seat held by John Doolittle - R)
25. MN-03 (open seat held by Jim Ramstad - R)
26. OH-01 (Steve Chabot - R)
27. ID-01 (Bill Sali - R)
28. FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart - R)

21/28 with one two still out. 75% is a passing grade, I guess. I was irrationally exuberant with the Minnesota seats, and I guess the Cubans are still behind the Diaz-Balarts. I am never listening to an Alaska poll again, however. I was also expecting Obama to have coattails for Dan Seals. Oh well.

Possible Democratic Pickups:

29. WA-08 (Dave Reichert - R)
30. FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart - R)
31. NJ-07 (open seat held by Mike Ferguson - R)
32. AL-02 (open seat held by Terry Everett - R)
33. MD-01 (open seat held by Wayne Gilchrest - R)
34. MO-09 (open seat held by Kenny Hulshof - R)
35. VA-05 (Virgil Goode - R)
36. NE-02 (Lee Terry - R)
37. VA-02 (Thelma Drake - R)
38. WY-AL (open seat held by Barbara Cubin - R)
39. IN-03 (Mark Souder - R)
40. KY-02 (open seat held by Ron Lewis - R)
41. AZ-03 (John Shadegg - R)
42. IA-04 (Tom Latham - R)
43. SC-01 (Henry Brown - R)

Some of these ended up being close. Others, like the ones at the bottom of the list, were not. Overall, no Democratic pickups were complete surprises, though.

Republican Pickups:

1. FL-16 (Tim Mahoney - D)
2. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
3. TX-22 (Nick Lampson - D)

2/3, with Kanjorski surviving by the skin of his teeth. Maybe time to retire, Paul?

Possible Republican Pickups:

4. NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter - D)
5. GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)
6. PA-12 (Jack Murtha - D)
7. KS-02 (Nancy Boyda - D)
8. LA-06 (Don Cazayoux - D)
9. AL-05 (open seat held by Bud Cramer - D)
10. PA-10 (Chris Carney - D)

Certainly, of the seven on this list, Nancy Boyda and Don Cazayoux were not the two I was expecting to lose. Chris Carney and Jim Marshall ended up with double-digit margins, so lucky them.

Overall I'm pretty pleased with my predictions, especially since this is the first time I've attempted it with House races.