Talk Elections

not that im a big fan of exit polls. 

vermont comes to mind.  dc too.  minnesota, possibly?

Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts to name a few others ...

oregon maine iowa

Wisconsin perhaps?

maybe not.

Iowa, if he continues his 5-10 point leads there. IIRC, white Iowans are most liberal (by self-identity) white population in the country.

Oregon?

Even more than VT?

Vermont
Massachusetts
Illinois
Minnesota
California
Washington
Hawaii

California(but only if you count latins as white). The rest? I'm not so sure on tbh.

A disproportionate amount of CA Latins are Natives.

Definitely here in Minnesota.  You pretty much have to win the white vote in Minnesota to win.. when we're 85% of the population.

He said white male vote, not white. Still the gender gap in Minnesota is very small. Only a 2-point split between white men and white women in 2004, Bush taking white men 51-49, the numbers reversed for white women. So it'll probably happen here.

Iowa was 52-47, so if he wins by the poll margin, that'll happen.

I wouldn't count on New York, necessarily, seeing as how it votes like Massachusetts and Rhode Island but with a much higher minority population and no doubt one heck of a gender gap in the suburbs.

Kerry's margin among white men, per the exit polls.  Note that these have a reasonably high MoE, especially in states with a high minority population.

District of Columbia +52%
Vermont +14%
Rhode Island +13%
Massachusetts +10%
Hawai'i +4%
Washington +1%
----------------------
Connecticut - 1%
Maine -1%
Minnesota -1%
Illinois -3%
Iowa -5%
New York -6%
New Hampshire -7%
Wisconsin -10%
Missouri -11%
Maryland -13%
New Jersey -13%
Ohio -13%
California -14%
Pennsylvania -15%
West Virginia -15%
Michigan -16%
New Mexico -18%
Oregon -18%
Colorado -19%
Florida -19%
Delaware -20%
Montana -20%
Nevada -20%
South Dakota -25%
Arizona -27%
Indiana -31%
Kansas -32%
Nebraska -32%
Tennessee -33%
North Dakota -34%
Arkansas -35%
Kentucky -35%
Alaska -44%
Texas -45%
Virginia -45%
Wyoming -45%
Idaho -46%
Oklahoma -46%
North Carolina -49%
Utah -50%
Georgia -52%
Louisiana -54%
South Carolina -56%
Mississippi -63%
Alabama -64%

Fun list.  White men in Delaware are just as Republican as in Montana.  Who knew?

Try no.

Vermont
Washington
Oregon
Minnesota
Maine
Illinois
Rhode Island
Massachussetts
New York
Connecticut

Vermont, and maybe Hawaii (the white vote there is pretty liberal these days), Maine, Illinois, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Washington, and Minnesota. I suspect the odds are less than 50-50 everywhere else.

Mississippi

Alcon, add to your list Connecticut, -1.

Didnt see the male part.

I'd be surprised if he lost them in Hawai'i.  Whites are stably Democratic in the state.  It was Bush's surge among pro-incumbent Asians and Pacific Islanders that gave him his gain.  Between 2000 and 2004, he went from 35% to 51% among those groups.

not sure but he could lose the white male vote about everywhere, won't he?  Is there a white male vote in DC?

Why do people think he will win the white male vote in Illinois?

District of Columbia
Vermont
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Hawai'i
Washington
Connecticut
Maine
Minnesota
Illinois
Iowa

Outside chance at New Hampshire and Wisconsin also.

Because he's bound to do better than Kerry in his homestate, and Kerry only lost it by 3 points?

Interesting: He lost it by 7 points (53-46) ...

Exit polls both years were probably off. Lost by 3 points sounds like this year; Kerry probably lost it by 15 points or so in Illinois. Other state changes look really suspicious, like Rhode Island, and they should. MoEs are large.

Anyway...


Among other things, it shows how the Solid South didn't go away, it just switched parties.