Talk Elections

(A) Obama's going to have to make the pick by Saturday afternoon.  I originally reported that it'd be the first appearance with his ticket-mate. Then my sources got skittish and weren't so sure. The Obama campaign wisely let me stew in my own confusion and would not confirm to other reporters what I had reported. I still think that's it right, but I don't know for sure.

(B) I don't think Obama's going to announce the pick on Friday. Why? Because it's Friday. Why would you announce a pick on Friday?

(C) The best day to announce the pick would be Thursday. That'd let the nominee have a day to prepare for Saturday's speech. BTW: Are people going to watch the Olympics on Saturday? Or Obama's kick-off.

(D) Obama is scheduled to be in Virginia on Thursday.

(E) Announcing has several parts to it:

     I. Obama calls his pick. 

    II. Obama calls the folks he didn't pick.

    III. Someone tells Joe Rospars who the pick is, and Rospars sends out text and e-mails.

   IV. The pick is "announced."

(F) The aftermath has several parts, too.

   Hit one: the media confirms the pick and broadcasts it.

   Hit two: the pick makes a short statement outside his or her home.

   Hit three: Obama makes a brief statement about the pick.

   Hit four: Obama and the pick make their first appearance together.

I've recently spoken with two of the finalists for the role of Barack Obama's running-mate, and to two other sources who are close to the process.

My bottom line is this: Barring a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, the choice is likely to be Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.
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"If I had to bet my life on it, I'd bet it is Joe," said one of the other contenders.

Said another, "Barack is moving toward a seasoned Beltway type, and that probably means Biden."

And a source personally close to Obama simply said "Biden makes the most sense."

One of the contenders also revealed a tidbit about timing. That person says Obama's camp wants to know how to get in touch on Thursday afternoon.

NashvillePost.com has learned that senior campaign officials from the Barack Obama Presidential campaign are being dispatched from various locations around the country and are converging in Indianapolis for a “major event” to take place on Saturday.

Saturday is the same day that Obama is expected to make his first public appearance with his yet to be announced vice presidential running mate. Indiana is the home state of Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, widely considered to be on the short list of Democratic vice presidential contenders.

Sources in Denver, the site of next week's Democratic National Convention, say that individuals responsible for Obama's major public appearances have been pulled out of the city and are heading east towards Indiana.

Earlier Wednesday, Obama and former Gov. Mark R. Warner will visit Martinsville. There, they will meet with workers and families who have been affected by what the Obama campaign calls the "failed trade policies of the Bush administration, policies [Arizona Sen.] John McCain promises to continue."

If Howard Fineman's reporting is correct, and potential vice presidential nominees have been asked to stand by on Thursday afternoon for "the call," then we ought to expect some sort of an announcement on Thursday afternoon before the evening news.

I just don't get the sense that there'll be an announcement on Friday. Something else is happening Friday; not sure what it is. I bet Obama is going to spend the day rehearsing his convention speech and attending to some other business.

It makes sense for Obama to announce his pick a full day before he appears with him or her; that person has to get his or her affairs in order. If that person is a governor of a state, he or she has to implement transition plans. A governor can't just up and leave a state for two weeks even if transition planning has already begun. (I am told that it has protectively begun in Virginia, not based on them possessing any special knowledge, but based on Gov. Kaine's staff being proactive.)

Anna Scott, regional director for this part of Virginia, encouraged attendees to text “VP” on their cell phone to 62262 (“Obama” on a telephone keypad).

A “Thank You” reply comes in the return text that also states “you will be among the first to get the message” and the phone will “buzz” with the name soon.

Obama, the presumed Democratic nominee for president, is holding an invitation-only event today at an undisclosed time and location. It has been speculated the campaign will announce Gov. Tim Kaine as the vice presidential candidate.

And in DC, Bayh dragged a gym bag behind his car for about a block Wednesday after leaving his garage. He opened his passenger door to free the bag but drove off without it. Reporters staking out his Washington home returned it to his front door and he later retrieved it.

By this time, Biden had returned at his home, called the "Lake House" in Biden Land. Eventually his wife, Jill, and son, Beau, also arrived. But less than an hour passed before Biden left again, this time driving in a silver SUV with his wife, with nary a whisper -- or some munchables for the press.

CHICAGO - Barack Obama says he's decided on a running mate, but he won't say who. The Democratic presidential candidate told USA Today on Thursday that he went with someone who is independent and would challenge him in the White House. He also said he wanted someone who is prepared to be president and would help him strengthen the economy.

Obama said he wanted somebody who is ‘prepared to be president’ and who will be ‘a partner with me in strengthening this economy for the middle class and working families.’

He said he was looking for not just a partner but a sparring partner. ‘I want somebody who’s independent, somebody who can push against my preconceived notions and challenge me so we have got a robust debate in the White House.’

    Hopefully, the same thing that my campaign has told the American people about me. That I think through big decisions. I get a lot of input from a lot of people, and that ultimately, I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done, and who are not about ego, self—aggrandizement, getting their names in the press, but our focus on what's best for the American people.
    I think people will see that I'm not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths and who are independent. I'm not a believer in a government of yes—men. I think one of the failures of the early Bush Administration was being surrounded by people who were unwilling to deliver bad news, or who were prone to simply feed the president information that confirmed his own preconceptions.

If Obama's campaign had planned to roll out their vice presidential pick at any point today, that announcement is likely to be put on hold. Why? The campaign believes the story about McCain's many houses is political gold and they won't want to step on it with a veep announcement that would immediately change the day's storyline.

Two Republicans who know say McCain has settled on Mitt Romney as his running mate.

Developing...

Meanwhile: If you are the wagering type, bet on Obama announcing Joe Biden as his running mate on Saturday.

EMPORIA, Va. (AP) — Barack Obama said Thursday he's chosen his running mate, but coyly kept all the details to himself as he campaigned with one leading contender and planned a major rally to present the Democratic ticket Saturday in Illinois.

Obama refused to say whether he'd notified his pick or when exactly he would send cell phones buzzing with the answer delivered via text message.

He didn't reveal his choice to Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, considered to be on Obama's short list, even after they met Thursday, according to two people close to the governor. They spoke on a condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Obama seemed to relish the frustrations of scores of reporters following him this week in anticipation of the announcement.

"Wouldn't you like to know?" he said with a grin when an Associated Press reporter asked when the text would be sent.

"I've made the selection, that's all you're gonna get," Obama said as he visited a store selling roasted Virginia peanuts as nonchalantly as any other day campaigning in a battleground state.

On the Republican side, GOP officials said late Thursday that John McCain has not settled on a running mate although former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty were under serious consideration. Two officials close to Romney said he had not been offered the job.

Democratic and Republican officials said both candidates were capable of making wild card picks that would surprise their backers.

Obama planned to appear with his pick Saturday at the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Ill., where he launched his presidential campaign in February 2007. Obama then planned to travel to the battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri and Montana before arriving in Denver to accept his party's nomination Thursday.

One person who had been vetted for the position told The Associated Press there had been no contact from Obama or his campaign about the decision. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the Obama campaign asked candidates not to speak about the decision.

The Illinois senator was widely thought to be considering Kaine, Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware and Evan Bayh of Indiana. None of them gave anything away — at least not in words.

Obama spent part of the day with Kaine, who reportedly told a colleague Wednesday that he believed he was on the short list. West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin said Kaine told him although he hadn't heard anything from the Obama campaign on where he stands at the time, "he really thinks he has a chance at the short straw."

Kaine and Obama met privately with the governor's staff for 15 minutes at a Richmond hotel. Afterward, Kaine said he would let the Obama campaign speak about whether the candidate asked him to be his No. 2. But two people close to Kaine said the governor was still in the dark.

Kaine plans to fly Friday night directly from Virginia to Denver, site of next week's Democratic National Convention, three people with knowledge of the governor's travel plans said. The plans could be changed if Kaine is told he needs to fly to Springfield instead.

Biden had a family gathering at his home Thursday afternoon, with his wife Jill, niece Missy Owens and son Beau, Delaware's attorney general, coming and going past reporters staked outside. Biden ran errands, including a visit to the dentist, but didn't speak to the media as he came and went.

Biden is a favorite for the vice presidential nomination among Democrats who think Obama could use his experience and tough campaign style. Biden has served 35 years in Congress, while Obama has served three.

Sebelius, campaigning for Obama in Iowa, said being mentioned as a potential running mate is something of "an out-of-body experience."

"Whoever it is, I am an enthusiastic supporter," she said but added she would leave the announcement to the campaign.

Bayh worked in his Capitol Hill office and later spent time at his home in Washington. He left wearing shorts and a baseball cap but told reporters outside he had no news to share. "Not tonight, sorry," he said.

It's possible Obama could make a surprise selection, although at least one dark horse candidate appeared out of the running. Former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn's spokesman said he would be traveling internationally until Monday, making a Saturday visit to Springfield seem unlikely.

Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, a national security expert who has been mentioned as a possible candidate, was at his home in Jamestown on Thursday. He told an AP reporter that he was not Obama's choice and that he had not been asked for any background information.

New polls out this week show Obama is neck-and-neck with McCain and still has yet to win over some supporters of Democratic primary rival Hillary Rodham Clinton. The polls sparked fresh discussion of whether Obama would make a surprise selection of Clinton as his running mate.

Clinton had other plans for the weekend. She was scheduled to visit the New York State Fair Friday and speak in Fresno, Calif., Sunday at the United Farm Workers of America's 18th Constitutional Convention.

Sen. Barack Obama called some people on his short-list for the vice presidential slot Thursday night to tell them he had not selected them as running mate, a highly placed Democratic party source told CNN.

The source did not say which people got the call.

Obama has told some other potential running mates over the last few weeks that he would not be choosing them.

In anticipation of Sen. Barack Obama's announcement of a running mate, NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports that one of Sen. Joe Biden's sons was flown in a private plane from Maine to the Senator's home in Delaware on Wednesday. Biden is "gathering the clan."

Another report said Biden has stopped talking to the media again.

Jonathan Alter thinks it's Biden "for some of the very reasons that were thought to disqualify Biden."

Presidential candidate Barack Obama is hours away from naming his running mate, as little-known Texas congressman Chet Edwards is emerging as a finalist.

Democratic officials say that Edwards was one of the few Democrats whose background was checked by Obama's campaign, and he was a finalist for the job.

Edwards is among a small circle of people mentioned, including Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware and Evan Bayh of Indiana.

Obama was expected to text message his choice later on Friday or Saturday.

Obama has often said, most recently on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on July 27, that Clinton “would be on anybody’s short list.”

But apparently not his.

“She was never vetted,” a Democratic official reported. “She was not asked for a single piece of paper. She and Senator Obama have never had a single conversation about it. How would he know if she’d take it?”

The official also said Clinton never met with Obama’s vetting team of Eric Holder and Caroline Kennedy.

And the official said she was never asked for medical records or for any financial 2008 information about her or former President Bill Clinton. The last information the couple has disclosed about taxes and financial holdings was for 2007

Several officials said Rep. Chet Edwards, whose district includes President Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas, had made the list of finalists

CNN first reported, and I can confirm, that Barack Obama has begun calling some folks who were vetted but who didn't quite make it.

Maybe these aren't the short-listers. Maybe these are the long-listers.

In any event, Hillary Clinton has NOT been called. (There's "news" of her not-being vetted, but the New York Times reported this a while ago.)

Evan Bayh has NOT been called.

and Joe Biden has not only NOT been called, it appears that everyone associated with him as gone to ground.

And FWIW: some Bayh folks think Biden's the guy.

Also FWIW: Virginia Democrats still don't think Kaine's the guy.

Obama chief strategist Robert Gibbs booked on morning shows tomorrow....

Hard to imagine he'd appear BEFORE we know...

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/EJA863

A flight from Midway to New Castle, DE... to pick someone up? Who knows?  No other flights from anywhere in and around Chicago to anywhere in and around Delaware... or vice versa. Just this charter.

Late Friday, several officials said the text message announcement would be distributed Saturday morning, a few hours before a scheduled rally at the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Ill., where the Democratic ticket would appear for the first time.

As reported in her Nightly News spot, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, according to sources, were told they're out of the running.