Talk Elections

It's on TV right now.

So much for the text message.

a day of my life ill never get back....

Damn. I must how just missed the story break.

Anyway, great news!

It's now made it to their website for those not close to a TV who don't believe me: ;)

http://www.cnn.com/

The text message was for a different purpose obviously.  Youngsters/ardent political supporters are so gullible.

Fine.


Obama/Biden 2008!

:D 'Bout fricken time.



Hey, sour pusses. At least it's not Hillary.

I feel bad for the people that signed up for the text message.

Even the best kept secret couldn’t be kept from the relentless howl of the press. Still, Obama did a heck of  a job keeping it secret.

I like Biden, and good for Obama for picking him. I still won’t vote for Obama, but I feel a lot better with a Biden Vice Presidency, should it come about. And hey, should Obama lose, hopefully Biden can pull an Edwards and give it another go in 2012.

The biggest  problem with this ticket though, is two senators. Seems  a bit weak to me usually, but I think Biden makes up for it for the most part, with his years of experience.  

Oh shut up.

I'm going with it on my blog.

NBC just announced it.

A large chunk of the country has gone to sleep, so the text message will still kind of work for them.

And I guess the Obama campaign hasn't come out and made it "official"...

Still, I'm not surprised it broke before the text. The Secret Service gave it away.

()

     Sweet. I always said that Biden would be Obama's best choice. It would seem that Obama agrees.

Yesssssssssss

I called this before Iowa.

Ooo...I like it.

And like my prediction that Lieberman would win as an Independent back in early 2006, your great prediction will be forgotten by most everybody.

Yeah it's not an official graphic, I got it from a Obama-Biden group on Facebook and I thought it looked really good.

He's made a great choice.

and yet mypalfish lives forever in infamy.

Very good pick.

Sorry for making an "official" thread, I started writing it before this thread exists.  I think I'll leave it just to try and consolidate some comments.

Morden gets the credit.

WTF ABOUT THE TEXT MESSAGES, OBAMA FAIL - I'm upset I signed up for that and waited by my cell phone.

Biden is going to rip McCain apart.

Yeah! Good thing he's the Presidential nominee!

Biden=attack dog

Exactly the type of VP candidate we need.

Wow, Larry King gets to break the story!

Sigh.

Biden was the only real choice Obama had.  He fills in most of the gaps that Obama has in his portfolio.  There's a risk Biden might be viewed as overpowering behind Obama, but as long as Biden can keep his lips in check, it should work.

So I guess we can probably count on McCain picking Romney.  Romney and Biden can keep themselves quite busy during the debates.

Yeah, Bentsen tore Bush a new one in 1988. Former President Dukakis is eternally grateful.

That's exactly why we shouldn't pick Biden. We need a contrast. Who cares if Pawlenty can't keep up with Biden's bomb throwing during a debate that twelve people will watch?

Bensten, an attack dog? What?

More like my grandpa...

You mean Romney, right?

:)

Fair choice, props to Obama.

Bentsen took on Bush and especially Quayle.


Oh, whoops. Yes.  :P

See! They're too similar.

Yes! Just who I wanted (and have been predicting for a long time)

MSNBC keeps playing the same tape of Obama, Biden and Rice all goody goody, kissing and hugging and all. It sickens me.

Yeah, I agree with you. It's late August, what the hell? And THANK GOD it's not Hillary.

I was hoping for Governor Richardson, but I like Biden. So this choice doesn't make me upset.

BWWAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!

Obama couldn't have picked a better VP.... to hand McCain the Election!!!!!


()

Even Bush got elected with Quayle.

VP's don't make or break elections.

"You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I'm not joking."

"You don't know my state. My state was a slave state. My state is a border state..."


(Not to mention the Plagiarism.)

Which is precisely why odds should be placed on a Romney pick by McCain.

LOL! One of my favorites!

He said Delaware was a southern state because it has the eighth largest black population. What the hell does that mean, Joe?

I'm ecstatic over this.

Smokescreen...planted leaks...

Have a good night. Make sure to tune into the news tomorrow morning, bright and early.

As much as I hate to brag, I seem to have nailed it about the uselessness of the text:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=81228.msg1678895#msg1678895


Then again, I'm starting to see some upside to it. A few years down the road, when many of these left-wing sheep (which doubtlessly make up a high % of those who signed up for the alert) have found a new, completely unrelated trendy cause/candidate to support, they'll be getting annoying generic promotional messages from Democratic organizations and candidates long after they ceased having wet dreams about Barack.

You're a couple chapters behind the present day there, bud.

I'll see you bright and early tomorrow at Area 51, old bud...  I hear carlhayden may be joining us.

"Don't tell me words don't matter!"

_____________________________________

"You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I'm not joking."

"You don't know my state. My state was a slave state. My state is a border state..."

_____________________________________

"Don't tell me words don't matter!"

Delaware was a slave state at the start of the Civil War. I always thought it was South of the Mason Dixon Line, but according to Wikipedia, it isn't.

Maryland and Delware were Southern States, but that has changed with the spread of the Northeast Corridor since 1940.

When they're coming from your mouth/key-board, the odds are they don't.

That has nothing to do with what I find amusing.

Facts = hate?


Yesss OMG OBAMA SUPPORTER = FANATIC1!!111 === KOOL AID DRINKER = OBAMA IS MESSIAH OMGOMGOMG!!!!111

Alright, so how is this choice actually a mistake?

Don't attack Biden.  Flatter him.

Say that you wish he was at the top of the ticket instead of the bottom.  Say that would have reassured you.  Say that Biden has a gravitas Obama didn't have on his own.

Say that Obama is implicitly admitting that experience does matter after all.

And get some intrepid beat reporter to ask Joe Biden if he truly thinks Obama is more qualified to be President than he is.

Then run an ad that shows clips of Biden saying Obama isn't up to the job (There are plenty out there) and saying good things about McCain (There are some out there).

In the VP debates, don't touch Biden.  Just point out how much smarter Biden is than Obama, how much more knowledgeable he is.  Then point out that if you want someone in the top job who is as ready as Joe Biden you have to vote for John McCain.

Remember, this race isn't about Joe Biden.  It's about Obama and McCain first and foremost.  Use Biden to make McCain look good and Obama look like a lightweight.

And whatever you do, don't pick Tim Pawlenty.

Obama went out and found the one person in America who is more arrogant and self-righteous than himself... congrats.

Let the gaffing begin.

Zogby will have a flash poll about Obama/Biden out tomorrow afternoon.

I have one too

Obama/Biden -42
McCain 666
MOE=999

Here is the video of John King breaking the story:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROwsIFMZEwc

He says that he got the info from anonymous Democratic sources who were telling him "things they weren't supposed to tell him".

A relatively bad choice, in that there better candidates (politically).  Overall, as VP nominees go, a middling choice. 

The timing, a Saturday at 12:45 AM, is hideously bad.

It's on the Obama page now:

()

I guess they figured the gig was up

And the text still didn't go out.

You are all morons.

The best running mate to combat Biden is Ridge... on many levels.

Seriously, did they not promise an infinite amount of times that the people who signed up with them would find out before they confirmed it officially to the press?  I find it rather offensive to be honest.  I'd rather be woken up at 4 am.

In that he appeals to the same Philly suburb voters that Biden might appeal to?  I suppose.  But nature abhors a vacuum.  With Biden on the ticket, does it make more sense to try and grab votes in an area Biden doesn't help with?

Liberman to win independents, Jews, and moderate Democrats?
Romney for his family name in Michigan?
Palin to close the gender gap nationwide?
Portman for Ohio?

Then there's the slight matter of making Ridge, a backer of the nuclear freeze and author of the color coded homeland security alerts, the heir apparent.  I'm not high on Ridge.

It should be down to Palin, Lieberman, and Portman in that order.

IMO, if Ridge is the VP Nominee, this election is over.  Obama can never get the electoral vote combination needed to win.  Romney on the ticket would be close to that as well, but Obama's odds would go up.

Is Ridge really that popular in Pennsylvania?

There is NO way that Obama can win against a McCain/Ridge ticket? Really?  I never realized that vice presidents could guarantee an election in August.

just got the text

HAHA so much for 10am Surprise :D

Most people probably haven't been following this as obsessively as we have, so this'll come as a surprise to them.

They still should've sent it out before putting the banner on the website though.

Ridge is very well liked amongst the people that were turned off by Barack in the primary.  Also, Ridge guarantees McCain at least 75% in the Northwest... which, while the Northwest is the least populace of the four corners of the state, that would, none-the-less be very significant.

As I pointed out, also, Ridge is regionally connected.  People across the border is Ohio, who might normally throw their support, volunteers and money behind a Democrat would reconsider with Ridge on the ticket.

The question is, which Ridge does he get?  Does he get caught-in-the-headlights Ridge from his time as Secretary of Homeland Security, or does he get the dynamic, considerate Ridge from his days as governor?  The latter still exists, as I have born witness to it.

Let's not forget, Ridge is no idiot.  He graduated with honors from the elite highschool of Erie.  He worked his way through Harvard (construction work).  He has a law degree from Dickinson.  I think he was just overwhelmed and understaffed at HLS.  He'd be a great pick.

Except that Ridge is pro abortion, which matters to a great deal of people, and not just Republicans, outside the Northeast.

Sup 330am text message.

Again, Ridge is not "pro abortion"... Ridge is actually pro-life, but his abortion position is very complex.  As I have said, one of Ridges biggest problems is that he is an awful soundbiter.  It takes him 30 minutes to explain his position on chocolate cake.  And Ridge does support limitations on abortion, outright, and he supports near total ban if a certain number of stipulations are met.  Ridge could, quite credibly, say that he opposes Roe, which is something in our corner.

All of which sounds like McCain's position, except (1) McCain has long been more forthright against it and (2) in any event, he can explain his position better -- or, rather, that he can explain it in a way that doesn't let the Democrats do it for him.

Nuance, and all of the eye-blinking and forehead-sweating associated with it, is deadly before a camera. But I have no need to remind you of it.

Remember: the people who care about abortion, who vote GOP and man phones and give money and such, don't want any compromise nuance-type candidate at the top of the ticket. They have enough problems with McCain. I say, pick a pro-lifer who doesn't scare people. Or a woman. From Alaska.

Not to mention, PA -- the whole of the Northeast, really -- was long gone even before today.

Ridge can.  He is hugely popular in PA and he can attract women, especially older women.  He is moderate on abortion, while still anti abortion.  He truly was raised working class and is a decorated veteran of Viet Nam.  When in congress, he represented Erie and down the boarder to outside of Pittsburgh,  He can influence a far chunk of OH as well.  He plays well everyplace and plays strongly in eastern OH and all of PA, excepting the Phila ghettos; he won re-election with the highest GOP vote in the fistory of the state.  He helps with 41 EV's.  He completely neutralizes Biden.

I say McCain/Ridge is facing Obama/Biden, Obama/Biden is facing the perfect political storm, and cannot win. 

You will note that I have never said Obama cannot win before.

Picking Ridge puts PA in McCain's pocket.  Signed, sealed, delivered.

Picking Ridge highlights the GOP's effort to reach out to the working class, because, in terms of backgrounds you don't get any more working class than Ridge.

Ridge is a decorated Vietnam Veteran, which increases McCain's strength there.

McCain can effortlessly highlight experience by picking Ridge, whereas Obama fumbled, ineloquently, and practically strained to admit, with his VP choice, that he has none.  This increases the contrast.

Ridge doesn't outshine McCain in any significant category... except height.  Which is good for a VP pick.

Ridge is a good personality match for McCain, and will blend in well with the tempo of the campaign.  Just watch the Obama camp try to get Barack and Biden to match or blend.

Finally, if Saddleback didn't convince social conservatives, then nothing ever will.  The negative reaction against Ridge is coming from the pundants and not voters.  Granted, they turn some heads, but this will all look relatively minor by October.

If Ridge gets enough stump/debate practice, there won't be an fumbling.  He'll be fine.

I feel validated by knowing that my own humble, original opinions are similar to those of a genuine political professional.  Now if someone would just give me a job.  :)

Here is the map:

()

Obama/Biden versus McCain/Ridge

I think Obama/Biden can still win Biden's birth state.

Wow... Biden was born in PA.  Ridge was one of the most popular governors in the history of the state.

I'm pretty sure J.J. was just joking, you know, tongue-in-cheek. At least I hope so.

I have not been a professional for years, but I did predict PA correctly in 7 of the last eight times.

Ridge will make Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada solid McCain?  Damn, color me impressed.

No...I think hes pretty serious here.

If it wasn't for the 12 mile circle, Biden would still live in PA.

And as I have said, it helps that Ridge is from Erie, because people up there are fanatical hometowners... fanatical.

Ummm... okay.

He will, Hawaii.  However, both Bushes,  and Kerry didn't, and VP candidates Edwards, Bentson, Ferarro, Kemp did not win theirs.

So, he'll win Erie County, Pennsylvania, by so much, that the votes will transfer over to Erie County, Ohio.  :P

Because Independents in Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia will just be so very impressed by a former Governor of Pennsylvania tied to the Bush Administration. Screw healthcare and the economy, I like this guy I've never heard of that McCain picked for the #2 slot!

The difference is that Obama is up 6 points right now.

Get ready to witness the amazing vanishing lead.

Obama only needs to win by 1 vote.

That's nice, Ridge will probably bring in several hundred thousand, at least.

And there is no math that gives Obama a win without PA and Ohio.

Ridge probably brings in the most EV's of any person on either shortlist.

     I guess that this isn't a win then:

()

     I find it to be reasonable. Ridge will have absolutely zero effect in CO, NV, NM, IA, or VA. I figure Obama has at least a 50/50 shot at each of those states anyway.

Even giving Obama all the tossups and throwing in VA, he loses.

....if Ridge guaranteed both Pennsylvania and Ohio, which he most certainly would not.

Even in NV and CO, because of his abortion stance, he attracts the Hilary women.  Same in VA, but VA was a state subject to a terrorist attack.  That's why he's such a good candidate on so many levels.

That scenario is pretty unlikely. And Ridge shores up VA and IA because of the working class vote.  As I said, Ridge screams "not unfriendly to workers".  What Biden screams might not be fit for TV.

Ridge appeals to a lot of ex-Hillary voters.

Fixed.

     Of course. Ridge would have as much of an effect on Ohio as Jerry Brown would on Nevada. He's not the governor in Ohio after all.


     Too bad for McCain that Ridge is not at the top of the ticket & as such, him appealing to the working class & women is totally meaningless. 99.9% of voters could not care less about who the running mates are when they vote. McCain is the one who would be president; not Ridge.

He would guarantee PA for certain.  And as I have said many, many times.  Ridge is a regional player.  Always has been.  His district was located right across the boarder from Youngstown, Ashtabula, Akron and Cleveland, and his connections there aren't to be down played.

Sometimes I get the idea that most people on this forum would have nothing to say to me if they simply read what I have already said.  Anymore, it seems as though I previously address the concerns of 95% of all posters who come at me.

Soult, I don't think it's that we haven't read your posts...it's (at least for me) that I think you're being optimistic.

I'd be interested to see how McCain informs voters that his VP is pro-choice without annoying religious conservatives.  I'd also totally be impressed by a "not unfriendly to workers" VP taking Iowa from like Obama +5 to solid McCain.

But, whatever you guys say.  He's from your state.  I evidently do not understand the majic.

First off, I was unaware that San Fransisco and Las Vegas were in the same socio-political region... or even anywhere close to one another.

Second, as I said before, picking Ridge helps set the tone of the campaign in ways that go beyond his immediate impact on the ticket.

     Now you do. :P

     Anyway, McCain can set the tone of his campaign independent of Ridge. My point remains that Ridge himself would have almost no effect on any of the five states I have flipping. Vice-presidents never do unless they bring something huge to the ticket, like Cheney bringing experience.

I will say that I still have misgivings about Ridge, in spite of your passionate defense of him. They extend even beyond his abortion moderation (which must be kept in mind at all times in GOP politics).

Does he still have real electoral cache in PA or, better still, Midwestern politics? Do endorsements from him matter? Most importantly, could he even win "reelection", so to speak, if he ran in PA today? Not only do I get the strong impression that Ridge's time, like Giuliani's in NY, is up, the state itself (along with NH) seems to have turned in a tidal wave to the Democrats these few years.

I dismiss, though, concerns about his stint in the DHS. No one remembers that anyhow.

Not to overstate the importance of VP picks -- I just think that Ridge would be a electoral dud outside of (and perhaps even in) the old industrial Northwest, and will just drag down a ticket already burdened with a still-distrusted McCain with so much ballast.

In the end, I think Romney would be the pick -- he has all of the faults of Ridge (not being able to be elected in a home state not named "Utah"), but has the benefit of being trusted by social conservatives.

     Ridge has a military background & lots of experience. Those merely accentuate McCain's strong points, so I don't see that as being too great a boon. Working class credentials help cover a weak point, though considering that that's something more issue-based & less nebulous than experience, I doubt he'll be such an asset that he'll immediately guarantee the election.

     Don't get me wrong, I believe that Ridge is McCain's best option. I, however, don't think that McCain is guaranteed victory if he picks Ridge.

There were a few polls conducted back in early '06 pitting Ridge against Rendell (it would have been possible for him to run, and there was a brief movement).  They all showed Ridge defeating Rendell by significant margins.  Interesting, if one considers the actual result of the election.

And I for one can attest that Ridge is still very popular in the Northwest, which is one part of the state where there has been significant Republican bleeding in the last couple elections.

And don't forget... this also sets Ridge up as the parties standard bearer in 2012 if McCain wins (he would be 66).

Because lets face it... McCain is likely a one termer due to his age... in fact, there is alot of buzz that he has made a one term pledge behind closed doors.

     I agree. If he ran for & won re-election he would be 80 when he left the White House.

I'm confused, are you now arguing for or against Ridge? ;)

I'm not jazzed about Ridge as President.

If he delivers Pennsylvania and the McCain campaign has polls showing he delivers Pennsykvania, then there's really no discussion.  Ridge must be the pick.  But if he doesn't clearly deliver Pennsylvania he shouldn't be on the shortlist because I don't see anything else about him that recommends him.

Any chance you could dig this poll up, Chris?

Whoa, wait one minute.  Where did you get the idea Romney is trusted by social Conservatives?

Ugh.............my stomach..................... (-_- )

Well, at least if he's up texting at 3:30am then he's probably going to be able to answer that 3am phone call when it comes through.

I certainly hope McCain picks a running mate who was both part of Bush's cabinet and also would royally piss off the base. I realize the more moderate blue avatars on this forum don't care if McCain's running mate is pro-choice (which is commendable) but it's still a big issue for a lot of the GOP base vote.

Oh but wait, VP candidates always deliver their home states. ;) History has clearly shown this to be true.

Ridge is easily McCain's smartest pick.  Who will the religious conservatives vote for?  Not Obama-Biden.  Plus, though Ridge is pro-choice, he's not the most hardcore supporter of abortion rights in the GOP.  And if George H.W. Bush could suddenly "get religion" on the issue in 1980, Ridge can, too. 

Ridge is popular in Pennsylvania, well-liked by both Republicans AND Democrats.  His ties to the Bush administration are certainly not a plus -- BUT -- his getting out of that nuthouse when he did could easily be sold to the electorate as a plus.  I know my admiration for anyone who has left the Bush administration has gone up. 

Now, does he help in Ohio?  Well, he doesn't win the state for McCain, that's for sure.  But so what?  It's not so much that he helps in a given state, it's that he doesn't frighten or worry liberal Republicans, Independents and conservative Democrats...all of whom could swing one way or the other.  To that extent, you bet he helps in Ohio.

I simply don't see a down side to Tom Ridge.  And I hope McCain chooses someone else!

BRTD should have a field day with this thread.

Its not that the Ridge pick will send social conservatives to Obama... He will send them home on election day... and Reps up and down the ticket will suffer. Especially in the South... A Ridge pick hurts Dole and Wicker the most.

Yes, I was just thinking that.  Obama announced his running mate with a 3am phone call.  I wonder if he's subtlely trying to rub it in with the Clintons.

>:( Three AM in the damn morning! I mean, what the hell did he wake me up that early for? He's probably like us, staying up late every night reading the Atlas forum.

::)

I strongly disagree with Super and J.J. on this one.

Social conservatives won't stay home whatever Ridge does.  Even if he doesn't flip on abortion rights.  

:D :) :D :) :D

He didn't pick someone other than Bayh and Biden ;D

FWIW:

Quinnipiac University Poll/June 18, 2008 – page 4
Pennsylvania
Obama tops McCain 57 – 34 percent with women as men go 47 percent for McCain to 45 percent for Obama.   Obama leads 61 – 33 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 – 41 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 48 – 43 percent with voters over 55.  The Democrat inches ahead 47 – 44 percent among white voters and leads among black voters 95 – 1 percent.
Obama gets a 54 – 25 percent favorability, to 43 – 33 percent for McCain.
Nineteen percent of the people who voted for Bush in 2004 now back Obama, while 24 percent of the voters who supported Clinton in the primaries now back McCain.
McCain’s age will not affect their vote, 73 percent say, while 24 percent say they are less likely to vote for him because of his age.  Obama’s race will not affect their vote, 88 percent say.
A total of 87 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say the vice presidential candidate is “very important” or “somewhat” important in their November vote.   But looking at some choices, voters say:
•   25 – 16 percent that they would be less likely to vote Democratic if Gov. Ed Rendell is on the ticket, while 56 percent say it won’t make a difference;
•   Split 18 – 18 percent on whether they would be more likely to vote for McCain if he is
running with Tom Ridge, while 62 percent say it doesn’t make a difference.

I didn't think you'd find him worse than Bayh. Eh.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/23/springfield-usa-2/


Weren't there some people here way back on Monday or Tuesday saying "There's no way Obama hasn't already told the person he's picking."?

I think that this is correct.  Ridge further is nuanced on abortion, as is the American electorate. 

On Ohio, it's exposure in those eastern media markets, Youngstown, Akron, and to a lesser extent, Cleveland.  Now, Ridge alone cannot carry Ohio, but he can increase the vote totals, kind of like, "McCain and the guy you know."

Yep.  Right on the mark, as usual, JJ.

I'll be voting for Obama-Biden.  But I have to say, a McCain-Ridge ticket would be a lot more appealing to me than a lot of others.  Ridge is a great guy.

Here is the timeline:

http://thepage.time.com/the-tick-tock-of-the-biden-pick/


I guess that's quasi-confirmation that the short list was Bayh, Biden, Kaine, and Sebelius.  I guess a few others were vetted, like Chet Edwards, but didn't make it into the short list.

I know at least one was internal.  The others are likely lost to history, I'll look.

Well, what I was referring to is that the Ridge base will be extra energized over that prospect.

And I am 99% certain that Ridge delivers PA with minimal effort by the McCain camp.  And he helps out McCain were he is likely to be weakest in Ohio... the Northeast.

With minimal effort? Dude, come on. I think we're winning here with or without Ridge but to think that it would take little work with Ridge is just fantasy.

What makes you think this? This is a very absurd assumption, Ridge would have to make a large impact on 150,000 voters choices for him to flip the state in a 50-50 election. Vice-presidential candidates don't even have close to that sort of a pull.

He's more on the background of the selection process:

link (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/us/politics/24deconstruct.html?_r=2&hp=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1219597849-wx/dIFMKJeUP0JhulouJMQ)

While Bayh, Biden, Kaine, and Sebelius were the four finalists, Dodd and Richardson also apparently received a close look.  Even until the end, Obama staff were prepping arrangements to roll out any of the four finalists: