Talk Elections

Now that both candidates have picked their running mates, it's time for another iteration of this poll.  In just a few months, right after the '08 general election, this board will be knee deep in speculation over who will run in 2012.  But why wait that long?

For the purpose of this poll, assume that McCain beats Obama in November.  Now here's the question: In early 2009 (just ~6 months from now), who do you think will make up the media-annointed "first tier" of potential contenders for the 2012 Democratic nomination?

You can pick up to three names, but just to be clear, these are the people who you think the media and political insiders will regard as the initial "first tier".  It doesn't mean that they'll be leading in the early 2012 polls, just as (for example) Mitt Romney was regarded as a "first tier" candidate well before he reached double digits in the national polls.  (Likewise, George Allen would have been considered a "first tier" 2008 candidate in late 2005 / early 2006, but in his case his candidacy didn't go anywhere, for obvious reasons.)

Here are the top vote getters from this poll from May:

(name, followed by # of votes)

Warner 22
Clinton 19
Bayh 10
Obama 9
Feingold 5
Schweitzer 5

Warner, Hillary, and Biden.

Clinton (far and away the "front runner")
Biden
Feingold

Honorable Mention: Schweitzer, Warner

Warner and Hillary

Evan Bayh, Hillary Clinton,  Brian Schweitzer

Clinton, Warner and Biden
But Obama would probably still be considered.

Hillary, Warner, Bayh, and Feingold as the first tier.

Henry, Brown, and Schweitzer as second tier candidates who could potentially break into the first tier.

If Obama loses this year not only will he not be considered.. But the party probably won't nominate a non-white for awhile. Sad to say.

I'm sure he would still be considered, as Kerry was after 2004.

I highly doubt he would run though.

Obama may remain viable.  Gore would have been, remember.  Kerry may even have won this cycle if he were somehow nominated again.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here...

Gore only because he won the popular vote in 2000 (and even the electoral vote was disputed).  Kerry never could have won the nomination in 2008 after having lost in '04.  Nowadays, I think the party wants to discard you once you've lost the general election....*unless* you won the popular vote, a la Gore.

you don't think he would have been competitive?  if only because of the environment.

Bill Ritter would be a great choice. He can say that he is pro-life, but will not appoint judges that will overturn Roe on the basis of stability and prudence.

...and if Roe is overturned, he can say that he will stay nuetral....that would basically be as if the abortion debate never existed.

Clinton will be a frontrunner, and I think Mark Warner will run as well. However, it's possible Warner won't, since he backed out of a near-certain bid in '08.

And I think Obama *might* remain viable in 2012, although it will depend a lot on the manner of his defeat. If his loss is a surprise and looks like it's the result of racism, he could well make a credible repeat bid. At the state and local level, many first-time minority nominees lose and are renominated, coming back to win.

This scenario would be even more likely if Obama wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote.

Still, I'd say Clinton is more likely to be the nominee. Really hard to foresee this far out, though. In September 2004, most people would have picked Hillary Clinton and George Allen as the likely nominees if George W. Bush won reelection.

I'd love to think Bill Ritter, but there's nothing cool and hip about nominating a moderate white guy with experience.  Democrats far more enjoy turning the election into a Hollywood party.  Therefore, I assume the frontrunner will be gay, a minority, and hip as can be.  Therefore I change my prediction to Mr. Sulu from Star Trek

The Democratic party should just disband if they can't win this one.

Clinton(runs on an I told you so campaign), Warner(takes up the change mantal), Biden(name thrown out to keep things interesting but he does poorly). Schweitzer, Feingold , and Ritter are lower tier candidates that could break through. Again Dennis Kucinich runs and again he barely gets 1%.