Title: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 17, 2008, 10:25:33 PM I had to do a double-take when I saw this one, but here it comes:
http://www.wthr.com/global/story.asp?s=9029011 Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Ronnie on September 17, 2008, 10:27:58 PM By all means, let this poll influence Obama to dump his precious resources into IN.
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Sam Spade on September 17, 2008, 10:29:45 PM Selzer again...
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Eraserhead on September 17, 2008, 10:32:32 PM These state polls are certainly coming out at a furious pace these days.
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: TheresNoMoney on September 17, 2008, 10:35:26 PM The poll was done by Selzer & Co., who 538.com ranked as the most accurate pollster during the primary season:
538.com Pollster Rankings (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings) Here is the Indianapolis Star writeup on the poll: Link (http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076/-1/ARCHIVE) Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 17, 2008, 10:36:31 PM Neat. I was worried that McCain would get a North Dakota or Montana-esque bounce in Indiana, but so far it seems like he has not.
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: HardRCafé on September 17, 2008, 10:42:04 PM No doubt propelled by the awesome reverse coattails of Jill Long-Thompson.
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Alcon on September 17, 2008, 10:43:30 PM The poll was done by Selzer & Co., who 538.com ranked as the most accurate pollster during the primary season: 538.com Pollster Rankings (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings) Here is the Indianapolis Star writeup on the poll: Link (http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076/-1/ARCHIVE) Being that it's an Indiana poll...isn't that n=1? Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Sam Spade on September 17, 2008, 10:45:12 PM The poll was done by Selzer & Co., who 538.com ranked as the most accurate pollster during the primary season: 538.com Pollster Rankings (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings) Here is the Indianapolis Star writeup on the poll: Link (http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076/-1/ARCHIVE) It's easier to be the most accurate (and least accurate) when you only poll one primary (not a primary actually, but a caucus). Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Alcon on September 17, 2008, 10:46:09 PM The poll was done by Selzer & Co., who 538.com ranked as the most accurate pollster during the primary season: 538.com Pollster Rankings (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings) Here is the Indianapolis Star writeup on the poll: Link (http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076/-1/ARCHIVE) It's easier to be the most accurate (and least accurate) when you only poll one primary (not a primary actually, but a caucus). Indiana was a primary...? Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Sam Spade on September 17, 2008, 10:50:02 PM The poll was done by Selzer & Co., who 538.com ranked as the most accurate pollster during the primary season: 538.com Pollster Rankings (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings) Here is the Indianapolis Star writeup on the poll: Link (http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076/-1/ARCHIVE) It's easier to be the most accurate (and least accurate) when you only poll one primary (not a primary actually, but a caucus). Indiana was a primary...? Now that I'm looking it up, they did poll Indiana couple of weeks before the primary. Had it as Obama +3 - barely within the MOE. But what else did they poll, because a one-point miss in Iowa and a four-point miss in Indiana does not give me a 0.75 accuracy average. Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Alcon on September 17, 2008, 11:29:12 PM The poll was done by Selzer & Co., who 538.com ranked as the most accurate pollster during the primary season: 538.com Pollster Rankings (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings) Here is the Indianapolis Star writeup on the poll: Link (http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076/-1/ARCHIVE) It's easier to be the most accurate (and least accurate) when you only poll one primary (not a primary actually, but a caucus). I know she does work for the Detroit Free Press in Michigan. I've always heard very good things about Ann Selzer, but I do not believe this poll. Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Tender Branson on September 17, 2008, 11:37:14 PM Too much information. ERROR. ERROR !
I´ve created the German Wikipedia page on 2008 State polling and I used to update it every day, but now each day about 20-30 polls are released ... http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umfragen_zur_Pr%C3%A4sidentschaftswahl_in_den_Vereinigten_Staaten_2008_nach_Bundesstaaten As for the poll: Indiana will be considerably closer than 2004, but I don´t think Obama can win. I would be happy though if CNN is not able to call IN after the polls are closed on Nov. 4 ... Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Mr. Morden on September 17, 2008, 11:39:33 PM The poll was done by Selzer & Co., who 538.com ranked as the most accurate pollster during the primary season: 538.com Pollster Rankings (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings) Here is the Indianapolis Star writeup on the poll: Link (http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076/-1/ARCHIVE) It's easier to be the most accurate (and least accurate) when you only poll one primary (not a primary actually, but a caucus). Indiana was a primary...? Now that I'm looking it up, they did poll Indiana couple of weeks before the primary. Had it as Obama +3 - barely within the MOE. But what else did they poll, because a one-point miss in Iowa and a four-point miss in Indiana does not give me a 0.75 accuracy average. They had an OK Michigan poll: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620080111040 which showed Romney up by 5 (actual result: Romney wins by 9). Better than the polls that actually had McCain winning, I guess. Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: auburntiger on September 17, 2008, 11:51:11 PM This is getting annoying!! Obama will never win Indiana! Trash poll.
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: ?????????? on September 18, 2008, 01:28:22 AM Selzer again... Isn't that a steakhouse? Sam Selzers? Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Aizen on September 18, 2008, 01:32:03 AM ahahahahahahah
mccain is losing in indiana indiana! hahaha how the mighty have fallen stick a fork in mccain Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: ?????????? on September 18, 2008, 01:33:08 AM ahahahahahahah mccain is losing in indiana indiana! hahaha how the mighty have fallen stick a fork in mccain Please, for the love of Christ, go away. Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Aizen on September 18, 2008, 01:35:59 AM ahahahahahahah mccain is losing in indiana indiana! hahaha how the mighty have fallen stick a fork in mccain Please, for the love of Christ, go away. whoa you go away you stupid son of a bitch nah i'm just messin', you're not really stupid Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Sam Spade on September 18, 2008, 08:59:06 AM The poll was done by Selzer & Co., who 538.com ranked as the most accurate pollster during the primary season: 538.com Pollster Rankings (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings) Here is the Indianapolis Star writeup on the poll: Link (http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076/-1/ARCHIVE) It's easier to be the most accurate (and least accurate) when you only poll one primary (not a primary actually, but a caucus). I know she does work for the Detroit Free Press in Michigan. I've always heard very good things about Ann Selzer, but I do not believe this poll. She does the polling for the Detroit Free Press? Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: JohnCA246 on September 18, 2008, 11:16:58 AM The Hoosier state loves corn, Peyton Manning, and Barack Obama?
Somehow I doubt this poll, but hey Ill take it. Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: agcatter on September 18, 2008, 11:57:17 AM Must explain why McCain is spending all that time in Indiana. Oh wait, he hasn't been there.
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: ChrisFromNJ on September 18, 2008, 11:57:54 AM Must explain why McCain is spending all that time in Indiana. Oh wait, he hasn't been there. I agree! Signed, - Al Gore and Tennessee in 2000 Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: RJ on September 18, 2008, 02:37:28 PM Wow, does this mean Obama needs the Kerry states+IA+NM+IN? Make that Kerry states+IA+IN???
Not even I would buy that one! Good to see, though. Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Ebowed on December 22, 2008, 06:03:12 AM ahahahahahahah mccain is losing in indiana indiana! hahaha how the mighty have fallen stick a fork in mccain way to buy into trash polls, troll Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Meeker on December 22, 2008, 06:08:45 AM This thread is great.
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: justfollowingtheelections on December 22, 2008, 12:58:05 PM I've had a lot of fun reading these threads about how Obama couldn't possibly win in states such as Indiana or North Carolina. To be honest I didn't think it would happen either because of the Bradley effect, but I think we should all show a little more respect to statisticians. They know a lot more about their science than most of us do.
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: emailking on December 22, 2008, 01:04:43 PM I remember this thread.
Most of the prognosticators here are just armchair pollsters really. Each poll released is a piece of evidence worthy of consideration. Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Edu on December 22, 2008, 02:47:29 PM LOL
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Holmes on December 22, 2008, 03:22:54 PM Obama can never win states like Georgia and Tennessee, especially not in 2012!!
:) Apparently saying something is impossible here makes it happen... Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Marokai Backbeat on December 22, 2008, 03:24:58 PM By all means, let this poll influence Obama to dump his precious resources into IN. ....:P Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 23, 2008, 11:46:06 PM LOLOL, Republican hacks (includes Sam Spade).
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Lunar on December 24, 2008, 12:05:43 AM That's why I only make fun of Insider Advantage and SUSA polls (and Zogby, obv).
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Ronnie on December 24, 2008, 12:09:03 AM By all means, let this poll influence Obama to dump his precious resources into IN. ....:P ...bah Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Lunar on December 24, 2008, 12:14:53 AM since when were Obama's resources precious anyway? He was advertising in Atlanta, West Virginia, and North Dakota.
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Bacon King on December 24, 2008, 01:21:55 AM since when were Obama's resources precious anyway? He was advertising in Atlanta, West Virginia, and North Dakota. Well McCain did win the money war you know. [/JJ] Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: Lunar on December 24, 2008, 01:23:21 AM Yeah but Ronnie is not crazy insane OCD like JJ
Title: Re: Obama leading by 3% in INDIANA!!! Post by: LanceMcSteel on December 24, 2008, 01:38:29 AM Republicans=Fail
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