Talk Elections

I believe NC and OR both will be with-in 2%.

McConnell/Lunsford. All the other competitive Senate races (Oregon, Minnesota, North Carolina) break for the D's by at least two points. Maine is safely Republican and Mississippi stays with Wicker.

Hey, go big or go home.

North Carolina and I think both candidates suck.

OR

MN will be second. Call me crazy.

I like this prediction, though I might switch KY with MS.

OR probably.

     OR methinks, with an outside chance of NC & KY.

In response to the OR predictions, I think Merkley has too much opportunity to break away from Smith because of the state's partisan lean and Smith's increasingly flailing campaign efforts.

NJ, call me crazy but this race resembles Corzine/Franks in every way possible

And you call me stupid!!!!!!!!! You dumbass.

Not happening, DWTL.

I say Oregon, btw.

I think New Hampshire is going to be closer than we suspect.  I mean, like razor-thin.

Yea, Josh you are smart because polls for a week back up slightly what you babble about ::)

It was amazing how intelligent the discussions were until you came back from your closet

Kentucky

Right now, I'd say Oregon. Even Gordon Smith's internals reflect the public polling (i.e., this race id dead-even).

And you have to say that dead even usually goes to the challenger in a blue state like Oregon, which Obama is likely to carry handily. 

Yes, and time's running out for Smith.  The national "experts" are generally clueless about Oregon politics. Case in point: Stu Rothenberg on the Oregon Senate race. "Yes, the Smith ads drive home the point, but they are striking many observers as the sort of late-October ad that a campaign might use as a game-changer, not the kind of TV spot that a confident incumbent would run in mid-September," wrote Rothenberg after Smith launched two ads attacking Merkley stance on crime.

Rothenberg is seemingly unaware that early voting in Oregon moves up the GOTV period by 2-3 weeks. Smith ran that ad because he's slipping among women in Clackamas and Washington Counties. Suburban women are apparently  being swayed by Merkley's focus on abortion, an issue on which Smith is outside the mainstream of Oregon opinion. Smith started defining Merkley in May, but while his ads have driven up Merkley's negatives, they've also polarized the electorate. Smith needs 15%-20% of the Democratic vote to win; he's now hovering around 15% among Democrats.

He's also antagonized his core constituency. While the conservative 3rd party candidate is unlikely to break 5%, he may win 3% ( most of which will come from Smith's right flank). These are the voters who are disgusted by Smith's association with Obama, Kerry, and local liberal Elizabeth Furse. In a tight election, those disaffected base voters could be decide the outcome.

Minnesota.