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Title: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on October 01, 2008, 07:10:33 PM Our last winner was Colorado, which beat Virginia 18-15 out of 54 votes cast.
This time, like last time, I say Virginia. Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Likely Voter on October 01, 2008, 07:13:03 PM Assuming an Obama victory, then the close states will be the 2nd tier of GOP swing states. I will go with NC
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on October 01, 2008, 10:08:08 PM NC, if Obama wins by the margin he is polling at right now.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: big bad fab on October 02, 2008, 04:45:40 AM Surprisingly, NV, with Obama very narrowly ahead.
VA isn't any longer the tipping point state: it has swung already. Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: The Ex-Factor on October 02, 2008, 07:44:52 AM I thought I was being contrarian with picking Nevada but I guess everyone is thinking the same thing.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: SPQR on October 02, 2008, 11:32:12 AM Nevada,with Obama winning by less than 1%.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on October 02, 2008, 09:48:02 PM I still can't bring myself to think North Carolina of all places is a tossup/swingstate.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: exopolitician on October 02, 2008, 09:48:39 PM Virginia.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: JSojourner on October 03, 2008, 09:45:55 AM I still can't bring myself to think North Carolina of all places is a tossup/swingstate. Me either. I say Virginia. Still. Not to say NC won't be closer than it's been in years. But tossup or lean Obama? I have a hard time imagining that. A lot of Yankees are moving to Charlotte but not THAT quickly. Hell, it's taken Virginia 20 years to get to this point and it's still not a given... Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on October 03, 2008, 11:52:09 AM I still can't bring myself to think North Carolina of all places is a tossup/swingstate. Me either. I say Virginia. Still. Not to say NC won't be closer than it's been in years. But tossup or lean Obama? I have a hard time imagining that. A lot of Yankees are moving to Charlotte but not THAT quickly. Hell, it's taken Virginia 20 years to get to this point and it's still not a given... It's not just that, the bigger cities in North Carolina have became more open and free sprited about things. I mean just take Greensboro for example. Greensboro has a big GLBT population now, and people don't seem to care if you are GLBT anymore. Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: © tweed on October 03, 2008, 02:11:16 PM voted NC, Indiana a close second
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 03, 2008, 03:23:19 PM Missourah, with Indiana a close second, and North Carolina in third.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: exopolitician on October 03, 2008, 03:27:23 PM Indiana.....really?
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on October 03, 2008, 05:08:52 PM GA...Obama will win the PV by at least 9% and have at least 375 EV
this is going to get real ugly real fast. I'd place McCain's chances of winning somewhere around 2% Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: © tweed on October 03, 2008, 05:36:02 PM GA...Obama will win the PV by at least 9% and have at least 375 EV this is going to get real ugly real fast. I'd place McCain's chances of winning somewhere around 2% at one point you had GWB's 2004 chances at 20%. "what's that hissing sound?" Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Associate Justice PiT on October 03, 2008, 06:01:14 PM Virginia. I expect Palin to galvanize theocons enough to keep it within 1%, though Obama will most likely win.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Torie on October 03, 2008, 09:02:20 PM It is going to be Missouri, as McCain loses the election by 5%. Just a wild guess.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Politico on October 04, 2008, 02:33:22 AM If McCain does not reverse the trend, I think Indiana, Missouri or North Carolina will be the one. If things get back to the way they were two weeks ago, I think it will be Ohio or Florida. If Obama gets yet another bounce, I suspect that Montana, North Dakota or Georgia will be the one.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: HardRCafé on October 04, 2008, 02:49:38 AM If Obama gets yet another bounce, I suspect that Montana, North Dakota or Georgia will be the one. Are you the one who advised Kucinich to stop being so centrist? Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 04, 2008, 02:53:55 AM I'd say Ohio. I think Obama will win Kerry + IA + NM + CO + NV + VA. I'm not sure who will win OH. McCain wins the rest.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: cannonia on October 04, 2008, 10:03:24 AM I'm sticking with Missouri.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Јas on October 04, 2008, 10:14:43 AM I'm sticking with Ohio.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on October 05, 2008, 06:10:48 PM Wow. NV, VA and NC are tied for the lead; I sure wouldn't have predicted that back in June.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Ronnie on October 05, 2008, 09:05:28 PM I honestly don't really care anymore, but I'm taking a wild stab in the dark and saying Florida.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: opebo on October 10, 2008, 02:21:26 PM I voted Missouri, but it could just as easily be Indiana or North Carolina.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Sbane on October 11, 2008, 07:18:28 PM OH or FL. I suspect OH falls slightly to Obama while MCcain wins Florida slightly. This is with about a 4 point win for Obama.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Punditty on October 11, 2008, 09:07:35 PM Last time, I thought Florida. Now I think Obama has Florida barring something major.
This time, I'm going with Indiana although North Carolina could be right there, with Georgia as a "surprise" battleground state. Missouri will break one way or the other near the end (as Missouri often does) and won't be as nail-bitingly close as people think. Expect mischief and accusations around the St. Louis vote, as always, which is usually reported late and has erased many GOP slim statewide margins over the years. But I don't think MO will be close enough for that to matter. If I had to guess now, I'd say it will end up about 50-47.5 Obama with Barr/Nader/other getting 2.5 percent. Very interesting thread. Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: muon2 on October 11, 2008, 11:09:10 PM I've picked MO in all the polls, if consistency counts for anything.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on October 11, 2008, 11:17:34 PM North Carolina
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Vsanto5 on October 12, 2008, 01:56:30 AM Virginia.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Platypus on October 12, 2008, 11:13:22 PM Sheer vote number, NM; percentage-wise, Florida.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: elcorazon on October 12, 2008, 11:16:59 PM Nevada.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on October 26, 2008, 11:18:52 AM Bump. Anyone else?
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: minionofmidas on October 26, 2008, 11:26:32 AM Sheer vote number? North Dakota. Vote margin? Whatever. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Frodo on October 26, 2008, 04:05:21 PM I am torn between Virginia and North Carolina.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: NOVA Green on October 26, 2008, 04:27:10 PM I voted NM last time on this poll....
Now I would have to say NC, followed by MO, and then IN. I suspect the race will tighten up by 1-2 points, and considering early voting and ground game for Obama that NC will be the closest by percentage. Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: LanceMcSteel on October 26, 2008, 10:57:26 PM IN.
Obama will win by .5% Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Daniel Z on October 27, 2008, 02:01:51 AM Top three: Missouri, Florida, North Carolina.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Tender Branson on October 27, 2008, 02:04:12 AM Voted Missouri.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: mack on October 27, 2008, 03:15:43 PM Missouri.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Person Man on October 27, 2008, 09:35:36 PM I think Misery will be the closest when it breaks for John McCain and when it does, it won't matter.
If I had to guess a week out- this is what I am looking for- National - 51.1-47.1-1.8 Big Three Ohio - 51-48-1 Florida- 50-48-2 Pennsylvania- 53-45-2 The Upper "South" Indiana- 47-52-1 Missouri- 48.8-49.1-2.1 Virginia- 51-47-2 North Carolina- 48-50-2 Georgia- 45-54-1 West Virginia- 42-55-3 The New West New Mexico- 52-46-2 Colorado- 51-47-2 Montana- 44-53-3 North Dakota- 46-53-1 Nevada- 50-47-3 Arizona- 46-52-2 Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: elcorazon on October 27, 2008, 10:41:14 PM I'm starting to think it might be Indiana.
Title: Re: What will be the closest state this year, Part III Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2008, 12:06:42 AM Missouri
North Carolina Indiana Nevada |