Talk Elections

Coleman: 43%
Franken: 42%
Barkley: 15%

What do y'all think?

Chris Cillizza called it for Franken. Is anyone else willing to join him?

     Sadly, I think it will be Franken. :(

Coleman +2%.

I decline to predict Barkley's numbers.

Franken by less than a percent.

My honest take:  Franken would have won last week but has lost ground.  Not sure how much.

Hmm... I think he would've lost last week and now will lose in a heartbreaker. This late-breaking scandal is eating away at Coleman's numbers.

Coleman +4

Switch Coleman and Franken.

Franken +2

Gov-2002+Gov-2006=Sen-2008

Coleman: 42.5%
Franken: 41.5%
Barkley: 16%

Coleman(R) 44%
Franken(D) 42%
Barkely(MIP) 14%

Coleman wins narrowly.

Franken 41.5
Coleman 40.5
Barkley 18

Franken by ~1%. Thank God the Coleman thing came out.

43-42-15 Franklen

Franken 45%
Coleman 44%
Barkely 10%

I predict... a recount.

Ooh! Me too!

I'm pleased with the results so far. :)

You remember what happened to Dino Rossi, don't you?

I'd be pretty surprised if this election isn't stolen.

I am really broken up over this one.  I got too emotionally invested in it even though I always suspected Coleman would pull through.  as Xahar said, the margin is small enough that we can hope Minneapolis steals it for Franken, as King allegedly did for Gregoire four years ago.

Is there anything still outstanding in Minnesota? Provisionals? Absentees? What could possibly influence the margin? I'm just remembering our Attorney General race, where Creigh Deeds lost by half this margin and a recount didn't change anything.

they have to recount, which the SoS says may well spill into December

Vote-stealing?

Coleman now up by 465.

Does anybody knows what's going on here? Are they now done counting ballots?

Republicans seem supremely confident about holding this seat - Ensign has already congratuled Coleman.

Ballot counting is done.  They're just relooking over the figures to see if everything matches, but I suspect that will be done by today.

Part of the problem with gaining in MN election recounts is that the ballots are all paper ballots.  So, a recount will consist of examining each paper ballot and making sure the intent is correctly done and then recalculating.

It is quite rare that this process results in any changes to the figures other than superficial ones.  Listen to what Franken says and you'll understand a bit more on the process.

So it's over? I watched a clip from the Franken presser, but I didn't glean anything that was particularly enlightening.

All the absentee and military ballots have been counted? Is that possible?

Coleman is headed for an extremely close victory.

It's not over.  But the key point from Franken to watch is his spiel about "ballot irregularities" and about how hard it was to count votes that are not cast.

I'm not an expert in Minnesota election law - the stuff I'm telling you is gleaned from other reputable sites - however I would guess that Minnesota counts all their absentee ballots beforehand or the day of, but I suspect the number is quite low (with same-day voter registration and all).

The same is true with military ballots, even though they are allowed to be received after election day (but that would be very few in number and probably not favorable).

You see, I haven't heard any talk about new ballots coming into the mix from the newspaper sources, just recounts and checking the numbers, so I have to assume that these are the ballots with maybe an exception or two

He's ahead 426 at the latest figure...

I don't think a recount will give Franken a victory... but Coleman has no right to be traipsing around like a slithering slimeball claiming victory.

On the bright side, the Secretary of State in MN is DFL. So at least we have that going for us.

It's 477 at the SOS site and CNN.

does Minneapolis have its own Dean Logan that can 'find' some ballots?

MN may have as many as 6000 undervotes...

http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=528866&catid=2


still tough for Franken to make up the gap with that; he's down less than 500 now, which means assuming all of the 6000 are counted, he'd have to win by a decent amount (especially considering many of the votes won't be for either he or Franken).  FL 2000 once more, kids.

any absentee/military still hanging in the balance?

Actually these undervotes probably favor Franken. See, once you insert your ballot into the counting machine, it either accepts it or lets you know there's an error, in which case you can either let the ballot count with the error an essentially cast a spoiled vote for that race, or have it returned, where it'll be shredded and you'll get a new ballot. The catch is that most people likely to choose the former are people who waited in long lines and just wanted to get out of there (This actually happened with the girl in front of me.). And we all know where the long lines were...

Oooh... this is getting exciting. When do Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton arrive?

Hopefully never.

Kudos on your prediction! :)