Talk Elections

Barring unexpected circumstances, Obama will be sworn in as the 44th president on Jan. 20th.  What five people are the most likely to become the 45th president?  Rank from most likely to 5th most likely....keeping in mind that the person could become president for reasons ranging from winning the 2012 election to winning the 2016 election to taking over for president if he dies or resigns (Biden would probably be the only person likely to become president via the latter circumstances.)

Biden, Warner, Palin, Jindal and Sanford?

I think the 5 most likely would be the top 5 in the presidential line of succession, but that's no fun.

Off the top of my head...
1. Biden
2. Gingrich
3. Romney
4. Warner
5. Bayh

1. Biden
2. Huckabee
3. Jindal
4. Warner
5. Romney

Biden, Warner, Huckabee, Jindal, Pawlenty.

Most Likely Democrats

1. Joe Biden
2. Mark Warner
3. Brian Schweitzer
4. Kathleen Sebelius
5. Tim Kaine

Most Likely Republicans

1. Sarah Palin
2. New Gingrich
3. Mitt Romney
4. Tim Pawlenty
5. Bobby Jindal

Biden, Romney, Riley, Schweitzer, Jindal.

Biden, Romney, Jindal, Palin, Schweitzer

1. Biden
2. New VP (Bayh, Warner, etc.) (if they get a new VP, 50% sure)
3. Romney
4. Warner
5. Jindal

107. Palin

Everyone thinks Warner is more likely to succeed Obama in 2016 than Hillary Clinton?

No one thinks she's in the top five for most likely to be #45?

Hillary's in the top ten, but I don't think she'll ever be President.

1. Biden
2. Romney
3. Warner
4. Jindal
5. Pawlenty

Biden
Jindal
Pence
Palin
Romney

Joe Biden
Mitt Romney
Hillary Clinton
Mark Warner
Bobby Jindal

I think she probably is. I could see her runner-up status carrying her to the nomination in 2016.

Frontrunners don't normally win the Democrat nomination.

1) Biden
2) Palin
3) Warner
4) Jindal
5) Schweitzer

intresting... I disagree with palin though, she has to reinvent herself and Obama has to be terrible

Six years ago my Aunt (also from Chicago and also a junkie like me) called and told me, "A friend of a friend is a Senator down in Springfield.  So, I went to hear him speak in Hyde Park yesterday.  I had to call you because my first thought after his speech was - this guy's gonna be our first black President!"  I literally laughed at her.  I thought there was no way in hell America was ready for that.  She agreed, but was thinking way down the road, like 2020, or even further.  I'm sure you can guess who that state senator was.

And who thought Palin would get anywhere near a national ticket six months ago?

All of the people listed so far have a shot at being president, but I'd bet money it will be somebody we're not thinking about.  Even more so if Obama has a good eight year run.

And I personally don't think Biden will be on the ticket in four years.  So, if nothing happens to Obama then I think he'll be riding off into the sunset.  My guess is that Palin's pretty much reached her peak as well.  She might run, but I don't think she'll get anywhere.

Of politicians I'm actually aware of, I'd say...

If Obama is a disaster
1. Rick Perry
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. Ryan Paul
4. Mark sanford
5. Charlie Crist

If Obama is good/great
1. His VP when he leaves office
2. Ralph Nader
3. Rahm Emanuel
4. Oprah
5. Al Gore

Really no need to list anyone under number one, if Obama has a good run, meaning people think the country is in a lot better shape than it is now, I'm sure our next POTUS will be his former VP.

Anything can happen in the race.  I think she'd be an awful candidate, but can you name me:
1) Any other candidate, Democrat or Republican, who is as likely as her to run in '12 and/or '16?  No other candidate is as guaranteed to compete.
2) Any other candidate who is as likely as her to win the primaries, after choosing to compete?  Palin  has a great chance of losing the primaries, but in my view she has the plurality odds in this department.  We don't know who the anti-Palin will be yet.

gop

1 palin
2 jindal
3 huckabee
4 crist
5 pawlenty

democrats

1 mark warner
2 evan bayh
3 tim kaine
4 ?
5 ?

Obama has 0% chance of being unable to finish his term for whatever reason?

1 Hillary Clinton
2. Mark Warner
3. Tim Kaine
4. Mit Rommney....... if obama pulls a carter
5. ?? I have no ideal right now

if obama does well why wouldnt a democrat win in '16?

I'm saying if Obama dies or otherwise become incapacitated, Biden will be the 45th POTUS - making him very likely, relative to any individual contender, to be that person.

biden will be too old to get the nod in '16

That's debatable, but Lunar's point is that Biden could become the 45th POTUS *before* 2016 if Obama dies or resigns.

i assumed the 5 most likely people to become #45 excluded biden since he was obvious hence my response not including him

He would be only a year older than McCain was this year, and the same age that Dole was in 1996His age very well could play a factor in his decision to run, or in his performance in the primaries, but I don't see why 73 automatically disqualifies you from running or winning a party's nomination.

But that's irrelevant.

Ford counts as one of the 44 presidents we've had so far and it has nothing to do with the guy winning any election.

1.Sarah Palin
2.Bobby Jindal
3.Mark Warner (ugh)
4.Hillary Clinton
5.Mitt Romney

1. Mitt Romney
2. Bobby Jindal
3. Brian Schwietzer
4. Joe Biden
5. Hillary Clinton




100. Mark Warner
101. Sarah Palin
102. Mike Huckabee

So you view the Repulicans as the Bible-thumping God party, and the Democrats as the Centrist swing-state party?


you serious?

yes

I agree Palin and Huck are completely  unelectable. Mitt Romney will struggle but at least he could try to win over suburbs with a strong economic message and continued weak or unstable economy in 2012. Huck and Palin will be lucky to win 150 Electors on election night in 2012.

Thank you for sharing your objective assessment with the forum.

Not a Mark Warner fan?

Seems there is now quite a lot of opposition to Warner. Sorry Ben. Now you know how us Romney people feel. Good Looking, competent former businessmen just don't do well. Maybe its all the anti-business sentiment in this country.

So we got sort of 3 ways the 45th president will become such: 1. Obama resigns/perishes in office (which as a supporter of his I'd like to avoid), 2. someone defeats Obama in 2012, 3. Obama wins in 2012 and someone wins in 2016 meaning the US has not been destroyed by aliens yet.

For 1, I don't actually see that as very likely. The secret service are much better these days than they were in decades past and they've kept Obama safe so far. I also don't see him being silly enough to get into a major scandal that would force resignation. And major health concerns are unlikely at his age.

So then for 2... From my perceptions, one of the reasons GWB was able to win in 2000 and 2004 was relying on people to vote on social issues and national security. As this year demonstrated, economic issues can trump social issues by far, and to a certain extent national security. In 4 years one of three things is likely to of happened with the economy. A. The economy has rebounded and happy days are back again (Obama seen as a good president so more likely to be re-elected baring any major issue foibles), B. The economy has kind of recovered by things are not easy still (Obama could be in trouble, but can easily depict the plan as not being complete and his opponent as wanting to turn the clock back to 2008/9 so slim advantage Obama but Obama could be crushed if the republican is seen as a more competant economic manager), C. The economy still sucks or worse (Obama likely to loose but only to someone not seen as reckless economically). The conditions where Obama looses then points towards a republican who is either seen as more capable of fixing the economy than Obama or Obama fixes the economy but really screws up another area of national policy. This would suggest either a pragmatic business centric republican or possibly a national security centric republican. Social issue centric republicans would probably flounder with the possible exception of a Huckabee like person giving the finger to the low taxes/no social programs crowd in the GOP and embracing Obamomics.

So 3. 2016 is a ways off. This means that either a young politician of other party (possibly someone we never heard of) is going to get it, or a well respected elder states-person is going to get it. If the Obama economy wins or looses is irrelevant as it will be a new slate of candidates which means new spin.


So what does this mean for my prediction?

Well as there's a huge universe of candidates out there, I think I'll play it safe and just do the roles a candidate of that ranking is most likely to of played. Fill in the name you think is most appropriate. I'll make a stab at them after this list.

1. Youngish up and coming Democrat
2. Youngish up and coming Republican
3. National security centric Republican
4. Competent nationally known Democrat
5. Economically sound centrist Republican

So who do I see filling the roles?

1. Paul of the Hodes
2. Pawlenty of the frozen north
3. David Patreaus (savior or Iraq?)
4. Kathleen Sebelius, prairie wanderer
5. Mittens of Romney


As for other possibilities...
8. Biden of the Joe's
10. Hillary Clinton, the Revenge
25. Sarah of Wasilla
35134. Freddy the Tomp's sons.

Dems
1. Warner
2. Biden
3. Schweitzer
4. Bayh

Gop
1. Romney
2. Jindal
3. Palin
4. Huckabee

I'm a Warner Fan! Atlasians should have a Warner Fan Club!

(just floating the idea)

As the forum's #1 Warner fan, I sanction this idea, and shall set up the thread shortly.

DEM

1. Joe Biden

GOP

1. Bobby Jindal

This forum alone is starting to make me hate Mark Warner. :p

Yeah, but Warner was a much better Governor than Romney was, and is less evil.

For some reason I don't think people would fawn over Warner as much if he had a different physical appearance.  He has that old school attractive politician look to him.

I'm sorry, but Warner's keynote speech made me want to go to sleep. I think he'll be a serious flop and will never become President.

I loved the speech :P

Top 5 Both Dem/Rep (No Order)

1. Joe Biden
2. Brian Schweitzer
3. Sarah Palin
4. Bobby Jindal
5. Hillary Clinton

The best opinion I heard of the Warner DNC speech was that it was a "Warner for Senate" speech rather than "Obama for President". 

But I don't think it hurt him in any way.

I liked it, But I like Schweitzer's the best.  FLORIDA! STAND UP! MICHIGAN! STAND UP!

Most likely: Huckabee
Romney
Jindal
Crist
Least likely: Biden

`
^^^^

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I really don't think Mark Warner will ever be president.

Politicians don't just stay "fresh" for decades. People on this forum seem to always think that the major figures in 2020 are going to be the same people who are prominent today, as if they never age.

Maybe in India or France. Not in the U.S.

I wouldn't rule anything out, but it's more that likely that in 2016, most of the major prospective candidates on either side will be people who just won their first major race this year or are only going to win their first major race in two years, in 2010.

The 2010 class of governors may well supply some major candidates, especially from larger states: I plan to watch the governorships of Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and California.

Sadly, I agree with you. Warner is this generation's Reubin O'Donovan Askew.

Fortunately for Warner, I don't think he really wants it in the first place. Had he run this year, I am fairly confident he would have won both the nomination and the Presidency, yet he didn't even form an exploratory committee.

I think if the nomination were dropped in his lap, he'd take it, but generally he's content to be Mark Warner, Obsession of Atlasians Everywhere.

true, that is true. But Warner isn't exactly "Prominent" Only Political hacks like us and Virginians Know about him.

To continue the trend of not-so-obvious names, what about Beau Biden, presuming that he wins the 2010 DE special election and is subsequently reelected in 2014?

I could definitely see that.

I forgot about that guy. Yes he could be president. Definitely.

1. Caroline Kennedy
2. Hilary Clinton
3. Joe Biden
4. Bobby Jindal
5. Lisa Madigan

My gut tells me Romney for some reason.

Isn't this a little early? Obama is only going to be the 43rd president so why speculation on 45?

44th

Nope. 43rd.

Let's just say... 44th president, but 43rd elected?

Yeah, what are you getting at Donut?

Any president selected by 9 justices and not the voters plus electoral college doesn't count.

So if someone fairly wins the electoral vote but loses the popular vote, they still aren't the rightful President (even though the Constitution states otherwise)?

Yeah.

Bush would still count anyway, since he was elected in 2004.

John Quincy Adams won neither the popular nor electoral vote, yet you still count him as a legitimately elected President?

That's debateable. Had bush after he seized power not been an atrocious leader, and instead done good things I'd be more willing to grant ex-post facto legitimacy to his reign.

I believe Straha views the Constitution as "unconstitutional" and "an illegal document."

That one was a fakepost.

Democratic:
Blanche Lincoln
Kay Hagan
Brad Henry
Phil Bredesen
Bill Nelson

Republican:
Haley Barbour
Mark Sanford
Pawlenty
The Republican that gets elected governor of Illinois in 2010
Tom Ridge

Not happening.

hahaha

Lisa Madigan will be the governor of Illinois in 2010 (unless she becomes a Senator in which case Quinn will run for governor).

I happen to think, oddly, that a republican will be elected governor of illinois in '10

PATRICK FITZGERALD FOR GOVERNOR OF ILLINOIS IN '10.

you heard it here first.

I doubt it.  Madigan was the favorite even before Blago was arrested.  If she runs, I'm pretty sure she will win, especially since she has been Blago's most vocal opponent.

how about Steve Poizner? he will be elected to be Governor of California in 2010, and is an honest, capable public servant. Maybe he will run in 2020, but he is charismatic, and a more sucessful buisnessman the Mitt Romney.

Donald Trump #Gravedigging

Indiana Congressman Mike Pence

Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz.

Lmao... except for... he's running as the frontrunner in 2020.

omg haha that's true

And please do scroll up, as it's will be pretty funny to read in fact.