Talk Elections

A few states already provide January 1, April 1 or July 1, 2008 population estimates:

California (Jan. 1): 38.049.462 - up 490.022 from Jan. 1, 2007 or +1.3%

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-4_2001-07/documents/E-4_2008%20Internet%20Version.xls

Oregon (July 1): 3.791.075 - up 45.620 from July 1, 2007 or +1.2%

http://www.pdx.edu/media/p/r/PrelimPopEst2008co_state.pdf

Washington (April 1): 6.587.600 - up 99.600 from April 1, 2007 or +1.5%

http://www.ofm.wa.gov/news/release/2008/080702.asp

Utah (July 1): 2.757.779 - up 58.225 from July 1, 2007 or +2.2%

http://governor.utah.gov/dea/UPEC/AllUPECData081120.xls

...

Population growth is down from 3.2% to 2.2% in Utah, from 1.5% to 1.2% in Oregon and from 1.8% to 1.5% in Washington.

Population growth is up from 1.2% to 1.3% in California.

The official US Census Bureau Estimates are out in December.

Do you think we'll see faster growth in Michigan and Ohio, now that people are stuck in place instead of having greener pastures to try in the southwest and south?

If they are not moving to North/South Florgiaclina, Texas or West or even Canada, they probably stayed in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Michigan had a population decline between July 2006 and 2007 (-30.000) but I expect that Michigan's population will only have declined slightly between July 2007 and 2008 or even stagnated.

Florida's population for example only grew by 127.000 between April 2007 and April 2008, or by 0.7%, despite growing by almost 2% in the previous years.

What's also interesting:

"Population growth is forecast to slow further over the current year to 0.40% (74,686 net new residents)."

Florida has about 240.000 births each year and 170.000 deaths, which means net migration in Florida will be ZERO from April 2008 to April 2009.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr56/nvsr56_21.pdf

http://edr.state.fl.us/conferences/population/FDEC0810_Summary.pdf

Maybe we (or OR, probably) have a shot at that extra CD after all!

I think NC and GA will have about the same amount of people. But NC will have past GA by 1,000 people or so.

Yesterday, July 2008 population estimates were released for Arizona:

As of July 1, 2008 AZ had 6.629.455 inhabitants, compared with 6.500.194 on July 1, 2007.

That's a growth rate of 2.0%, down from 3.1% between July 2006 and July 2007.

http://www.azcommerce.com/doclib/econinfo/FILES/2008AZestimates.pdf

http://www.azcommerce.com/doclib/econinfo/FILES/EEC-07.pdf

http://www.azcommerce.com/doclib/econinfo/FILES/EEC-06.pdf

There will be an shift in growth due to economic slowdown. I expect both a slowdown in interstate emigration and external immigration. It's worth looking at the reapportionment bubble states from the 2007 estimates. I had these projected as the last 5 states to get a seat, and then the next five that just missed:

Seat 431  AZ (10)
Seat 432  PA (18)
Seat 433  TX (36)
Seat 434  MN (8)
Seat 435  OR (6)

Seat 436  WA (10)
Seat 437  NY (28)
Seat 438  MO (9)
Seat 439  SC (7)
Seat 440  IL (19)

Does this make PA and MN safer? Does it put AZ and TX at risk of there current projected gains?

I wonder if the Census officials will have enough money on April 1, 2010 to conduct the Census effectively, or will they be underfunded because of the (continuing) economic worries ?

Or do they have a fixed budget for the 2010 Census ?

When the block-level census redistricting data is released in the spring of 2011, someone ought to divide Wyoming (the state with the smallest population as of the 2000 census and most likely now) into 386 hypothetical congressional districts (the most any state could have with 435 U.S. Representatives and 49 other states that all have to have at least one Representative) just for the fun of it.  I mean, what if some error is found in the census papers for every other state that requires their resident populations to all be recorded as zero?  :D  I wonder how many 1/386ths of Wyoming the Democrats could be competitive in, particularly if the Republican-dominated state government engaged in partisan redistricting?  The Democrats would definitely start championing the Maine-Nebraska method of electoral vote allocation in this surreal scenario.

That might be true.

We are already seeing previously fast growing states like AZ, NV, WA, OR, UT, FL and GA decelerate in growth.

Additionally, I've recently read that Mexican emigration is down more than 40% compared with 2006. In 2006 more than 1.2 Mio. Mexicans emigrated from their country vs. 800.000 in 2007.

In the first quarter of 2008, the number of people emigrating was 1/5 lower than a year earlier. Also, more (illegal) immigrants are now heading back to their home countries, because of the bad economy in the US.

Just yesterday there was an atricle in the Rocky Mountain News about it:

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/dec/13/immigrants-head-home-as-jobs-dry-up/

When will the 2008 census estimates be released?  The Census Bureau's press release (http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/011109.html) announcing the highlights of the 2007 estimates was released at 12:01 a.m. EST Thursday, December 27, 2007, and Polidata's press release (http://www.polidata.org/census/wprgl26a.pdf) with their 2010 apportionment projections was embargoed until 12:00 a.m. that same date.  See also muon2's Census Estimates for 2007 -> 2010 Apportionment (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=66908.0) thread started at 1 a.m. on that date.  Will all this happen on the 27th again this year, or will it happen on a different date?  (muon2 started his 2005 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=33630.0) and 2006 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50839.0) on December 22 of those respective years, with the Census Bureau's press release (http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/006142.html) in 2005 at least being released on 12:01 a.m. on that day.)

Lol. I might do that.

Who would want to stay in Michigan, in this economy?!?!

It might be that people in Michigan feel that opportunities aren't much better elsewhere, that the whole country's in the economic crapper, so why move from one location in the toilet bowl to another.

I have a friend in Michigan, I can ask if you really wanna know... although I don't think anyone in her family is even in the manufacturing business so they probably still have their jobs.

Or that we value things like quality of life and such. :) Of course ancestral and family ties to a region can always explain any decision to not move from any place, also.

I think the July 1, 2008 state estimates are likely to be released until next Friday.

Utah is Fastest-Growing State
     Utah was the nation’s fastest-growing state between July 1, 2007, and July 1, 2008, as its population climbed 2.5 percent to 2.7 million, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Arizona was the second fastest-growing state, increasing 2.3 percent between 2007 and 2008. Texas, North Carolina and Colorado completed the top five, each with a growth rate of 2.0 percent. Nevada, which had been among the four fastest-growing states each of the last 23 years, grew 1.8 percent and ranked eighth over the most recent period.

     Texas gained more people than any other state between July 1, 2007, and July 1, 2008 (484,000), followed by California (379,000), North Carolina (181,000), Georgia (162,000) and Arizona (147,000).

     The only two states to lose population were Michigan and Rhode Island. Michigan’s population declined 0.5 percent (46,000), while Rhode Island’s fell 0.2 percent (2,000).

California remained the most populous state, with about 36.8 million people on July 1, 2008. Rounding out the top five states were Texas (24.3 million), New York (19.5 million), Florida (18.3 million) and Illinois (12.9 million).

Other highlights:

On the whole, the Northeastern states have gained population at an increasing rate since 2005, a turnaround from their declining growth rates from 2000 to 2005.

Six of the 10 fastest-growing states from 2007 to 2008 were Rocky Mountain states: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming. Three others lined the South Atlantic coast: Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina.

The West was the fastest-growing region (1.4 percent) between 2007 and 2008, but the South added the highest number of people over the period (1.4 million).

The estimated July 1, 2008, population for Puerto Rico was 4 million, up by 0.3 percent (13,000) from one year earlier.

link (http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/013049.html)

Growth by raw percentage:

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Growth by quintile:

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It's rather odd to see Minnesota having a higher growth rate than Florida, if just barely.

Highest Domestic Immigration:

Texas 140.862
North Carolina 98.074
Arizona 62.980
Georgia 56.674
South Carolina 49.736
Washington 40.588
Colorado 36.878
Tennessee 31.198
Oregon 24.756
Utah 17.605

Highest Domestic Emigration:

Pennsylvania   -11.462
Connecticut   -14.985
Massachusetts   -18.675
Maryland   -32.161
Ohio   -49.752
Illinois   -52.349
New Jersey   -56.208
Michigan   -109.257
New York   -126.209
California   -144.061

I've heard that Texas has very nice bancruptcy laws. Now all the indebted investment crooks are fleeing to that state ...

North Carolina's population is really growing. I bet by 2010 NC will be larger then GA.

There's a slight chance that NC passes MI, but I doubt that the state will catch GA in the 2010 Census.

So is someone going to do an EV map for 2012 with these new numbers and growth rates?

I'm sure Muon will calculate it soon ...

Growth Map. I think Red is better then Green.

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Key:
40% Blue: -.5 or higher
30% Blue: -.1 to -.4
30% Red: 0.0 to 0.4
40% Red: 0.5 to 0.9
50% Red: 1.0 to 1.4
60% Red: 1.4 to 1.9
80% Red: 2.0 to 2.4
90% Red: 2.5 or higher

I project that MI will still have about half a million more people than NC in 2010. It's hard to see an estimate be off by that much to put NC ahead of MI.
Indeed I have, and the thread is up.

There are always a few surprises. If MI shows a slightly bigger decline from 2000-2010 and the Census shows a population of about 9.8 Mio. and NC with a slightly higher growth, NC could pass MI by a few thousand people. If it's not by April 1, 2010 then certainly 1 year later.

Have the 2008 Census Bureau estimates for counties and county subdivisions (cities, towns and townships in Maine, although a lot of unorganized minor civil divisions are grouped together) been released yet?  If so, where could I find them?

They will do so in March 2009 ...

http://www.census.gov/popest/topics

Couny estimates will be released in March. Towns and other county subdivisions are scheduled for release in July.