|
Title: Results of large cities Post by: nclib on December 21, 2008, 11:11:57 PM For Obama unless otherwise noted
WDC: 92.5%-6.5% Baltimore: 87.2%-11.7% Chicago 85.4%-13.7% San Fran: 84.2%-13.7% St. Louis: 83.5%-15.5% Philly: 83%-16.3% NYC: 79.3%-20% Boston: 78.6%-19.3% Denver: 75.5%-23% Arlington, VA: 71.7%-27.1% Va. Beach: McCain, 49.8%-49.1% Anyone have any more? Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 21, 2008, 11:16:51 PM Minneapolis was around 81% Obama, but I can't give exact numbers yet.
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Ronnie on December 21, 2008, 11:23:34 PM Minneapolis was around 81% Obama, but I can't give exact numbers yet. You're right: http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/ Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Alcon on December 22, 2008, 02:01:05 AM What population are we requiring for "big city"?
Seattle: 84.7%-13.9% Portland: 80.3%-17.0% Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: platypeanArchcow on December 22, 2008, 03:36:54 AM Los Angeles: 76.3%-21.8%
Long Beach: 69.5%-28.4% What do Republicans do in Long Beach? Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: phk on December 22, 2008, 04:08:20 AM Los Angeles: 76.3%-21.8% Long Beach: 69.5%-28.4% What do Republicans do in Long Beach? What was San Diego? Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2008, 05:24:16 AM Los Angeles: 76.3%-21.8% Long Beach: 69.5%-28.4% What do Republicans do in Long Beach? What was San Diego? Quote The Statement of Vote is completed 39 days after each statewide election and the Supplement to the Statement of Vote is completed 159 days after each statewide election Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Verily on December 22, 2008, 03:23:07 PM Anyone have the breakdown from Duval County? Jacksonville proper might have actually voted for Obama, given where the small non-Jacksonville areas of Duval are (very white, very wealthy beach communities, likely 75%+ McCain). In which case we would have to start a quest to discover the biggest city to vote for McCain.
Anyway, the cities worth checking out are Fort Worth (#17), Oklahoma City (#31), Mesa, Ariz. (#38) and Virginia Beach (#41, confirmed for McCain). Hard to imagine that Mesa didn't vote for McCain, either, and Fort Worth is probably more likely to have done so than Oklahoma City anyway. Of course, if Jacksonville (#12) did vote for McCain, the point is moot. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: ag on December 22, 2008, 08:21:17 PM The Duval data by precinct are on their webpage. Unfortunately, I couldn't find the most recent description of which precincts serve what. So, assuming there wasn't recently any change in precincts and assuming no precincts serve both parts of Jacksonville and parts of the micro suburbs, I just subtracted the results for the precincts that have recently participated in local elections in these suburbs. So, with those two assumptions in mind, we get the following:
City of Jacksonville McCain Palin 200,675 votes (50.18%) Obama/Biden 195,900 votes (48.99%) McCain did win Jacksonville :) Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: justfollowingtheelections on December 22, 2008, 08:22:51 PM Can anyone find numbers for cities in Texas?
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: ag on December 22, 2008, 08:35:23 PM Can anyone find numbers for cities in Texas? That's hard: municipal and county governments are not too closely related. One would have to comb precinct-by-precinct data in many counties. Still, given that both Harris County (bulk of Houston) and Dallas county (bulk of Dallas) voted for Obama (the latter by a good margin), he must have won those. Fort Worth is harder to figure out. Travis county (Austin) is, of course, Obama, as are Bexar (San Antonio) and El Paso. Getting the actual numbers would require hard work :) Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: justfollowingtheelections on December 23, 2008, 03:40:51 PM No, that's good enough. Thanks
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Alcon on December 23, 2008, 04:52:33 PM I'm starting a spreadsheet with the exact results of every city of 100,000 or more. It would be helpful if raw numbers could be posted. California can wait for the SOVC. I basically need cities that aren't counties of their own. I just need a raw count for Obama, McCain, and "Other" (including write-ins in states that count all write-ins)
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on December 23, 2008, 05:08:24 PM Memphis, TN
Note: There are 12 precinct splits where county vs. city results cannot be separated. In these cases I multiplied the percentage of city residents in the precinct by the votes cast there. Total Votes: 265667 Obama: 202619 (76.3%) McCain: 61302 (23.1%) Barr 446 (0.2%) Nader 416 (0.2%) Baldwin 349 (0.1%) McKinney 160 (0.1%) Moore 85 (0%) Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Alcon on December 23, 2008, 05:26:23 PM Thanks Don! Added to my list. If you happen to see it any time, I'm also looking for Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga and Clarksville.
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Alcon on December 23, 2008, 05:46:20 PM I'll just post the full "in search of" list here:
(*) indicates splitting, and I haven't tried to find an un-split total. Alabama Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Alaska Anchorage Arizona Chandler Gilbert Glendale Mesa Peoria Phoenix Scottsdale Tempe Tucson Arkansas Little Rock California (note: S2SOVC will be out in a couple of months) Anaheim Bakersfield Burbank Chula Vista Concord Corona Costa Mesa Daly City Downey El Monte Elk Grove Escondido Fairfield Fontana Fremont Fresno Fullerton Garden Grove Glendale Hayward Huntington Beach Inglewood Irvine Lancaster Long Beach Los Angeles Modesto Moreno Valley Norwalk Oakland Oceanside Ontario Orange Oxnard Palmdale Pasadena Pomona Rancho Cucamonga Richmond Riverside Roseville Sacramento Salinas San Bernardino San Buenaventura San Diego San Francisco San Jose Santa Ana Santa Clara Santa Clarita Santa Rosa Simi Valley Stockton Sunnyvale Thousand Oaks Torrance Vallejo Victorville Visalia West Covina Colorado Arvada Aurora Fort Collins Lakewood Pueblo Thornton Westminster Connecticut Bridgeport Hartford New Haven Stamford Waterbury District of Columbia Florida Cape Coral Clearwater Coral Springs Fort Lauderdale Gainesville Hialeah Hollywood Jacksonville Miami Miramar Orlando Palm Bay Pembroke Pines Pompano Beach Port St. Lucie St. Petersburg Tallahassee Tampa Georgia Athens Atlanta Augusta Columbus Savannah Hawai'i Honolulu (CDP!) Idaho Illinois Aurora Elgin Joliet Naperville Peoria Rockford Springfield Indiana Evansville Fort Wayne Indianapolis South Bend Iowa Cedar Rapids Des Moines Kansas Kansas City Olathe Overland Park Topeka Wichita Kentucky Lexington Louisville Louisiana Baton Rouge Lafayette Shreveport Maryland Massachusetts Boston Cambridge Lowell Springfield Worcester Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Alcon on December 23, 2008, 05:47:04 PM Michigan
Ann Arbor Detroit Flint Grand Rapids Lansing Sterling Heights Warren Minnesota Minneapolis St. Paul Mississippi Missouri Independence Kansas City Springfield Montana Nebraska Lincoln Omaha Nevada Reno New Hampshire New Jersey Elizabeth Jersey City Newark Paterson New Mexico Albuquerque New York Buffalo Rochester Syracuse Yonkers North Carolina Cary Charlotte Durham Fayetteville Greensboro High Point Raleigh Winston-Salem Ohio Akron Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Dayton Toledo Oklahoma Norman Oklahoma City Tulsa Oregon Pennsylvania Allentown Erie Pittsburgh Rhode Island South Carolina Charleston Columbia South Dakota Tennessee Chattanooga Clarksville Knoxville Nashville Texas Abilene Amarillo Arlington Austin Beaumont Brownsville Carrollton Corpus Christi Dallas Denton El Paso Fort Worth Garland Grand Prairie Houston Irving Killeen Laredo Lubbock McAllen McKinney Mesquite Midland Pasadena Plano San Antonio Waco Wichita Falls Utah Salt Lake City West Jordan West Valley City Virginia Washington Wisconsin Green Bay Madison Milwaukee Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 26, 2008, 11:16:07 AM It's the largest city in Delaware...
Wilmington: Obama - 27,266 (88.0%) McCain - 3,492 (11.3%) Other - 227 (0.7%) Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: nclib on December 29, 2008, 12:25:06 AM Anyway, the cities worth checking out are Fort Worth (#17), Oklahoma City (#31), Mesa, Ariz. (#38) and Virginia Beach (#41, confirmed for McCain). Hard to imagine that Mesa didn't vote for McCain, either, and Fort Worth is probably more likely to have done so than Oklahoma City anyway. Of course, if Jacksonville (#12) did vote for McCain, the point is moot. Has Phoenix been confirmed for Obama? Of the top 100 cities, the only other ones that could potentially go for McCain (with varying degrees of likelihood) are: Phoenix suburbs, Colo. Springs, OKC and Tulsa, suburbs of Dallas (and also the city of Corpus Christi) Tex, Wichita, Kan., some in Orange (also Bakersfield and/or Chula Vista) CA, Anchorage, suburbs of Vegas (though prob. not), Fort Wayne, Ind., It's also worth checking out the south Fla. ones due to concentration of Cubans. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Alcon on December 29, 2008, 01:32:21 AM If someone can figure out what the heck precincts are within the city of Phoenix, I'll gladly do it.
Edit: Maricopa County basically redirected me to the local political parties, wtf? Useless. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Verily on December 29, 2008, 07:50:10 PM I have Paterson, NJ courtesy of The Record. I think they combined "Others" in their report, though. I'll have it in a moment.
Paterson, NJ Obama: 36,417 (89.78%) McCain: 3,972 (9.79%) "Others": 174 (0.43%) Says all you need to know about Passaic County, really. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Verily on December 29, 2008, 07:56:25 PM Anyway, the cities worth checking out are Fort Worth (#17), Oklahoma City (#31), Mesa, Ariz. (#38) and Virginia Beach (#41, confirmed for McCain). Hard to imagine that Mesa didn't vote for McCain, either, and Fort Worth is probably more likely to have done so than Oklahoma City anyway. Of course, if Jacksonville (#12) did vote for McCain, the point is moot. Has Phoenix been confirmed for Obama? It voted decisively for Kerry, and Maricopa County swung slightly towards Obama, so I don't think it's worth checking. Quote Of the top 100 cities, the only other ones that could potentially go for McCain (with varying degrees of likelihood) are: Phoenix suburbs, Colo. Springs, OKC and Tulsa, suburbs of Dallas (and also the city of Corpus Christi) Tex, Wichita, Kan., some in Orange (also Bakersfield and/or Chula Vista) CA, Anchorage, suburbs of Vegas (though prob. not), Fort Wayne, Ind., It's also worth checking out the south Fla. ones due to concentration of Cubans. Hialeah is the only really big heavily Cuban city (other than Miami, of course). But I think it's fairly Democratic nonetheless. Would have to check, of course. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: phk on December 29, 2008, 08:14:31 PM Anyway, the cities worth checking out are Fort Worth (#17), Oklahoma City (#31), Mesa, Ariz. (#38) and Virginia Beach (#41, confirmed for McCain). Hard to imagine that Mesa didn't vote for McCain, either, and Fort Worth is probably more likely to have done so than Oklahoma City anyway. Of course, if Jacksonville (#12) did vote for McCain, the point is moot. Has Phoenix been confirmed for Obama? It voted decisively for Kerry, and Maricopa County swung slightly towards Obama, so I don't think it's worth checking. Quote Of the top 100 cities, the only other ones that could potentially go for McCain (with varying degrees of likelihood) are: Phoenix suburbs, Colo. Springs, OKC and Tulsa, suburbs of Dallas (and also the city of Corpus Christi) Tex, Wichita, Kan., some in Orange (also Bakersfield and/or Chula Vista) CA, Anchorage, suburbs of Vegas (though prob. not), Fort Wayne, Ind., It's also worth checking out the south Fla. ones due to concentration of Cubans. Hialeah is the only really big heavily Cuban city (other than Miami, of course). But I think it's fairly Democratic nonetheless. Would have to check, of course. Hialeah might be the only city in Miami-Dade that McCain won. Its just that the non-Cuban Hispanics are increasing in number and are way more Democratic than the Cubans. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: minionofmidas on December 30, 2008, 04:36:31 AM Maricopa map with precincts and cities (http://156.42.40.10/mapping/Reviewerlite/map.asp?XMin=534763.020527802&XMax=741452.369962302&YMin=820740.554679188&YMax=968040.903897936&service=REViewerLite&Image=http%3A%2F%2F156.42.40.10%2Foutput%2FREViewerLite_regis02578458847573.png&Legend=http%3A%2F%2F156.42.40.10%2Foutput%2FREViewerLite_regis02578458847574.png&address=&zip=&size=regular&legendtype=Checkboxes&mstreets=on&streets=on&canals=off&qtrsec=off&pct=on&cities=on&county=on&action=zoomout&ActiveLayer=15&click.x=369&click.y=210)
List of Miami-Dade precincts by municipality (http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/dis_pre_mun/pct-dist.pdf) and results by precinct (http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/results/ele110408/110408-d.pdf). Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Alcon on December 30, 2008, 05:08:52 AM Maricopa map with precincts and cities (http://156.42.40.10/mapping/Reviewerlite/map.asp?XMin=534763.020527802&XMax=741452.369962302&YMin=820740.554679188&YMax=968040.903897936&service=REViewerLite&Image=http%3A%2F%2F156.42.40.10%2Foutput%2FREViewerLite_regis02578458847573.png&Legend=http%3A%2F%2F156.42.40.10%2Foutput%2FREViewerLite_regis02578458847574.png&address=&zip=&size=regular&legendtype=Checkboxes&mstreets=on&streets=on&canals=off&qtrsec=off&pct=on&cities=on&county=on&action=zoomout&ActiveLayer=15&click.x=369&click.y=210) That's ridiculous even by my standards List of Miami-Dade precincts by municipality (http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/dis_pre_mun/pct-dist.pdf) and results by precinct (http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/results/ele110408/110408-d.pdf). So is that. They must have a canvass format. I think Dave is working on Florida. Hopefully I can use his results and that first document. Too lazy to upload now, but here's what I have: (* = Some splitting) 1. New York: 79-20 Obama 3. Chicago: 85-14 Obama 6. Philadelphia: 83-16 Obama 13. San Francisco: 84-14 Obama 18. Memphis: 76-23 Obama 20. Baltimore: 87-12 Obama 21. Boston: 79-19 Obama 24. Seattle: 85-14 Obama 26. Denver: 75-23 Obama 27. Washington, DC: 92-7 Obama 28. Las Vegas: 59-39 Obama 30. Portland, OR: 80-17 Obama 38. Mesa: 59-39 McCain 41. Virginia Beach: 49-49 McCain 47. Colorado Springs*: 56-42 McCain 52. St. Louis, MO: 84-16 Obama 72. Henderson, NV: 51-47 Obama 78. New Orleans: 79-19 Obama 79. Norfolk: 71-28 Obama 85. Chesapeake, VA: 50-49 Obama 94. North Las Vegas: 69-29 Obama 98. Arlington, VA: 72-27 Obama 101. Boise: 54-44 Obama 104. Spokane: 53-44 Obama 105. Richmond: 79-20 Obama 112. Tacoma: 67-31 Obama 126. Newport News: 64-35 Obama 127. Jackson, MS: 81-18 Obama 131. Providence: 83-15 Obama 143. Vancouver, WA*: 58-40 Obama 151. Salem, OR: 57-40 Obama 152. Sioux Falls: 50-48 Obama 155. Springfield, MA: 77-22 Obama 156. Eugene, OR: 72-25 Obama 159. Paterson, NJ: 90-10 Obama 161. Hampton, VA: 69-30 Obama 173. Alexandria, VA: 72-27 Obama 200. Bellevue, WA: 64-35 Obama 207. Provo, UT: 73-23 McCain 229. Manchester, NH: 55-44 Obama 248. Lowell, MA: 65-33 Obama 253. Portsmouth, VA: 69-30 Obama 254. Billings, MT*: 50-47 McCain 257. Cambridge, MA: 88-10 Obama 258. Berkeley, CA: 92-5 Obama Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: minionofmidas on December 30, 2008, 05:26:35 AM I've just done Hialeah for self-amusement purposes, actually.
Obama won two precincts there (oh yah, and they have two precincts with 0 registered voters, and one with 3 registered voters and 0 votes cast). 62,024 valid votes McCain 63.75 Obama 35.82 Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Alcon on December 30, 2008, 12:07:47 PM I've just done Hialeah for self-amusement purposes, actually. Obama won two precincts there (oh yah, and they have two precincts with 0 registered voters, and one with 3 registered voters and 0 votes cast). 62,024 valid votes McCain 63.75 Obama 35.82 Any chance you can post the Obama/McCain/Other so I can add it? :) Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: minionofmidas on December 30, 2008, 12:19:18 PM I've just done Hialeah for self-amusement purposes, actually. Obama won two precincts there (oh yah, and they have two precincts with 0 registered voters, and one with 3 registered voters and 0 votes cast). 62,024 valid votes McCain 63.75 Obama 35.82 Any chance you can post the Obama/McCain/Other so I can add it? :) 22,220 / 39,538 / (62,024 minus previous figures equals 266. Which seems a tad low. Maybe there's a summing error somewhere. Will get back to you.). Nope, it's correct. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Husker on January 01, 2009, 09:49:19 PM I'll work on getting Omaha, NE. Lincoln, NE was 53-44 Obama.
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Alcon on January 01, 2009, 10:00:18 PM I'll work on getting Omaha, NE. Lincoln, NE was 53-44 Obama. Any chance you can get the raw vote numbers on that, Obama/McCain/Other? Then I can add it. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: nclib on March 03, 2009, 05:53:29 PM bump - anyone have new data?
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: bgwah on March 10, 2009, 07:36:24 PM Here are Indiana results... I guess Gary has supposedly fallen under 100,000 since the last census, though it would still be interesting...
http://www.scribd.com/doc/13067328/2008-INDIANA-Precinct-Level-Vote-for-President-Partial Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: nclib on April 19, 2009, 10:22:01 PM It would be interesting to find out the most densely populated municipalities to vote for McCain as most of the cities here that voted for McCain, have large land areas.
According to the Calif. supplement, these are the most densely populated municipalities in Calif. to vote for McCain Quote City (county) McCain margin density Garden Grove (Orange) 4.312% 9,238.7 Westminster (Orange) 13.986% 8,952.0 Huntington Beach (Orange) 7.339% 7,478.3 El Cajon (San Diego) 5.209% 6,554.0 Lake Forest (Orange) 9.203% 6,360.3 The only city listed in this thread that has a higher density than any on the above list, is Hialeah, Fla. with 11,309.4 people/sq. mi. I've just done Hialeah for self-amusement purposes, actually. 62,024 valid votes McCain 63.75 Obama 35.82 Any other possibilities? (I've checked that Mesa, Virginia Beach, Colorado Springs, Provo, UT, Billings, MT also have lower densities) Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Alcon on April 20, 2009, 12:08:00 AM I believe there's a town in Idaho that is freakishly dense because of how it's plotted, but damned if I can remember its name. Minuscule place.
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: memphis on April 20, 2009, 09:14:49 AM Let's not forget Kiryas Joel. Wikipedia has their density at 18,246 people/sq mi.
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: bgwah on April 20, 2009, 03:58:12 PM I believe there's a town in Idaho that is freakishly dense because of how it's plotted, but damned if I can remember its name. Minuscule place. Huetter Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: DariusNJ on June 21, 2009, 05:19:28 PM Detroit voted 96.9% for Obama. Don't have the raw data though, sorry.
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Lephead on July 15, 2009, 12:15:33 PM Here is the info I have on large cities. Mainly stumped on Phoenix AZ
http://www.scribd.com/doc/13474955/2008-VOTE-FOR-PRESIDENT-Top-50-Cities Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Badger on July 15, 2009, 12:30:50 PM Here is the info I have on large cities. Mainly stumped on Phoenix AZ http://www.scribd.com/doc/13474955/2008-VOTE-FOR-PRESIDENT-Top-50-Cities Very cool. Welcome to the Forum! Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: minionofmidas on July 15, 2009, 04:44:52 PM Here is the info I have on large cities. Mainly stumped on Phoenix AZ http://www.scribd.com/doc/13474955/2008-VOTE-FOR-PRESIDENT-Top-50-Cities Phoenix should be possible from the precinct map up on the Maricopa County website (or at least, that used to be up on the Maricopa COunty website), just take days and days of work. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: DariusNJ on July 15, 2009, 06:22:24 PM Wow, it looks like Obama won Fort Worth! That surprised me.
Oklahoma City voted for McCain by a pretty large margin. I thought the city would lean slightly Obama. I think McCain's best city in the top 50 was Mesa, correct me if I'm wrong. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Lephead on July 15, 2009, 08:04:35 PM Didn't he squeek out a win in Jacksonville? But I think his largest margin was in Mesa?
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: DariusNJ on July 15, 2009, 08:55:01 PM Didn't he squeek out a win in Jacksonville? But I think his largest margin was in Mesa? Yeah, I meant largest margin. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: nclib on July 16, 2009, 08:02:12 PM Largest cities for McCain Obama % McCain %
13 Jacksonville FL 49.3% 49.8% 31 Oklahoma City OK 42.6% 57.4% 38 Mesa AZ 37.9% 60.1% 42 Virginia Beach VA 49.1% 49.8% 46 Tulsa OK 44.3% 55.7% 48 Colorado Springs CO 42.2% 56.4% 50 Arlington TX 47.2% 52.0% 51 Wichita KS 46.4% 51.3% 57 Bakersfield CA 42.9% 55.6% 64 Corpus Christi TX 47.3% 51.8% 67 Anchorage AK 40.9% 56.8% 70 Plano TX 39.7% 59.1% 74 Glendale AZ 43.3% 55.0% 76 Chandler AZ 45.1% 53.3% 79 Scottsdale AZ 42.1% 56.6% 87 Lubbock TX 33.1% 66.1% 90 Garland TX 46.4% 52.6% 94 Gilbert AZ 35.8% 62.8% 95 Hialeah FL 35.8% 63.7% Obama's best in cities over 100,000 obama mccain Detroit MI 96.9% 2.6% Miami Gardens FL 93.3% 6.2% Inglewood CA 92.8% 6.0% Berkeley CA 92.5% 4.9% Washington DC 92.5% 6.5% Newark NJ 92.5% 7.1% Hartford CT 91.7% 7.8% Oakland CA 91.2% 7.0% Paterson NJ 90.0% 9.7% Flint MI 88.0% 11.0% Cambridge MA 87.8% 10.1% New Haven CT 87.8% 11.4% Baltimore MD 87.2% 11.7% majority race: black Detroit, Washington, DC Baltimore, Newark, NJ, Flint, MI, Miami Gardens, FL hisp Paterson (NJ), Inglewood (CA) white Berkeley (CA), Cambridge (MA) none Oakland, Hartford, New Haven (CT) McCain cities all white except hisp: Corpus Christi and Hialeah none: Arlington and Garland, TX Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: minionofmidas on July 24, 2009, 05:04:07 PM Where does the Scottsdale figure up there come from?
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: nclib on July 24, 2009, 06:37:42 PM Where does the Scottsdale figure up there come from? This link (below) that Lephead posted. I don't know what his original source is. Here is the info I have on large cities. Mainly stumped on Phoenix AZ http://www.scribd.com/doc/13474955/2008-VOTE-FOR-PRESIDENT-Top-50-Cities Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Lephead on July 31, 2009, 03:13:02 PM To NCLIB :
"This link (below) that Lephead posted. I don't know what his original source is." There are so many sources it defies comprehension. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: minionofmidas on August 01, 2009, 03:35:35 AM Anyway, the cities worth checking out are Fort Worth (#17), Oklahoma City (#31), Mesa, Ariz. (#38) and Virginia Beach (#41, confirmed for McCain). Hard to imagine that Mesa didn't vote for McCain, either, and Fort Worth is probably more likely to have done so than Oklahoma City anyway. Of course, if Jacksonville (#12) did vote for McCain, the point is moot. Has Phoenix been confirmed for Obama? It voted decisively for Kerry, and Maricopa County swung slightly towards Obama, so I don't think it's worth checking. The Republican 3rd and Democratic 4th district combined voted for Bush by ~14k IIRC (for Obama by a narrow margin). This includes the bulk of the city of Phoenix. It also includes the southern half of Glendale (in the fourth. Certainly less Democratic than the average of the 4th, but pretty sure it went for Kerry. The northern half of Glendale is in the 2nd and quite Republican), a lot of unincorporated land north of Phoenix in the third (heavily Republican) and some smaller corners of unincorporated land southwest of Phoenix (solidly Democratic) and the very small city of Guadalupe southeast of Phoenix (almost 80% Democratic in both 2004 and 2008. Higher turnout in 2008, though.) In balance, the part of Phoenix included in the two districts definitely voted for Bush. There are some small parts of Phoenix in the 5th and 7th districts, and these I think both voted for Kerry, but getting me to believe they're enough to flip the city will take convincing. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: nclib on August 01, 2009, 04:19:57 PM Aside from Phoenix, the largest city in each state voted Democratic except:
AK (Anchorage) FL (Jacksonville, deceptive b/c land area) KS (Wichita) OK (Oklahoma City) VA (Virginia Beach, deceptive b/c land area) WY (Cheyenne) The only states where the largest city was less Democratic than the state were: FL, VA (see above) and HI (Honolulu, which was still quite Democratic) Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Lephead on August 02, 2009, 01:24:00 AM "Where does the Scottsdale figure up there come from?"
The upside of maricopa county was that there were municipal elections in some cities in November. That information could be matched to precinct. the downside was that Phoenix and Glendale did not have a municipal election. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: minionofmidas on August 02, 2009, 03:17:53 AM Do you still have a list of what precincts are Scottsdale?
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Lephead on August 02, 2009, 09:02:20 PM I posted the maricopa chart with known city precincts here :
http://www.scribd.com/doc/18034053/2008-MARICOPA-AZ-Precinct-by-City PRES is the total number of votes cast for Presidential candidates. CITY is the total number of votes cast in the municipal election. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: minionofmidas on August 03, 2009, 02:21:49 PM Thanks, that's great.
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: RBH on August 04, 2009, 12:07:38 PM Obama's 20 worst precincts in Philadelphia:
Ward 39 Division 14 : 25% Ward 26 Division 3: 31% Ward 63 Division 17 : 32% Ward 57 Division 13 : 34% Ward 66 Division 29 : 36% Ward 26 Division 2: 37% Ward 26 Division 15 : 37% Ward 39 Division 41: 37% Ward 56 Division 22 : 37% Ward 39 Division 36 : 37% Ward 26 Division 5: 37% Ward 58 Division 4: 38% Ward 65 Division 1: 38% Ward 66 Division 25 : 38% Ward 57 Division 22 : 39% Ward 58 Division 21 : 39% Ward 26 Division 6: 39% Ward 48 Division 22 : 40% Ward 26 Division 12 : 40% Ward 26 Division 1: 40% () Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Alcon on August 04, 2009, 07:53:40 PM Damn, only 25%? What are some of those precincts, in basic terms?
Cool stuff. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: RBH on August 07, 2009, 12:46:07 PM The 39th Ward is in South Philly. W39D14 is south of I-76 and east of Broad Street, including Wachovia, CB Park, and Lincoln Financial.
The Vote total was 202-69 McCain with 8 Nader votes and 1 Barr vote. 26-3 is a neighborhood in South Philly. 63-17 is in NE Philly. 57-13 is also in NE Philly. 66-29 is on the border with Bucks County Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Lephead on August 08, 2009, 01:04:04 PM I added some more cities to my chart, mostly from Florida and Texas. They are listed at the end of p.2.
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: ajc0918 on August 13, 2009, 12:33:31 AM Great thread. Cool stuff.
Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: nclib on August 13, 2009, 10:03:51 AM I added some more cities to my chart, mostly from Florida and Texas. They are listed at the end of p.2. Good work. I noticed that you have The Woodlands, Montgomery Co., Texas as almost 3-1 Obama. Haven't looked at any data there (other than the county totals), but I was under the impression that it was a very conservative area. Can you make sure it is not transposed. Thanks. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Lephead on August 13, 2009, 11:09:31 AM NCLIB : Good work. I noticed that you have The Woodlands, Montgomery Co., Texas as almost 3-1 Obama. Can you make sure it is not transposed. Thanks.
Thank you for pointing out this transposition. Texas lists McCain first in all its precinct reports so I entered it as it was from the precinct results. Like you say, this is the suburban republican heartland, and it was definitely 72% for McCain. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: Lephead on August 20, 2009, 12:19:35 AM Okay, I've slain the beast, I have attempted using precinct maps to determine Phoenix Arizona. The surprise was that Obama's margin was not very big.
In my chart on scribd, I have entered the totals as : Obama 170934, McCain 155731 but they break down this way : precincts that are all in Phoenix or look like they'e re mostly in Phoenix voted Obama 157104 McCain 147251; precincts that look particularly split voted : Obama 13830 McCain 8480. The tragic part here is that only 335,000 people voted in Phoenix. http://www.scribd.com/doc/13474955/2008-VOTE-FOR-PRESIDENT-Top-Cities Next big city (well not any more) is Birmingham Alabama. There is an election there so the city posted a list of polling places. I was able to match up all but 8 to the Nov 2008 results. Trying to find out those numbers. Current vote for Obama : 86.6% Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: minionofmidas on August 20, 2009, 11:59:54 AM Unsurprising:
The Republican 3rd and Democratic 4th district combined voted for Bush by ~14k IIRC (for Obama by a narrow margin). This includes the bulk of the city of Phoenix. It also includes the southern half of Glendale (in the fourth. Certainly less Democratic than the average of the 4th, but pretty sure it went for Kerry. The northern half of Glendale is in the 2nd and quite Republican), a lot of unincorporated land north of Phoenix in the third (heavily Republican) and some smaller corners of unincorporated land southwest of Phoenix (solidly Democratic) and the very small city of Guadalupe southeast of Phoenix (almost 80% Democratic in both 2004 and 2008. Higher turnout in 2008, though.) In balance, the part of Phoenix included in the two districts definitely voted for Bush. There are some small parts of Phoenix in the 5th and 7th districts, and these I think both voted for Kerry, but getting me to believe they're enough to flip the city will take convincing. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: cannonia on August 20, 2009, 08:32:59 PM Sacramento, CA:
Obama 120,961 (71.4%) McCain 43,214 (25.5%) Elk Grove, CA: Obama 33,918 (57.2%) McCain 23,858 (40.2%) Elk Grove had a huge swing (and huge growth). In 2004, it voted 24,659 to 21,293 for Bush. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: nclib on September 23, 2009, 09:51:34 PM Anyway, the cities worth checking out are Fort Worth (#17), Oklahoma City (#31), Mesa, Ariz. (#38) and Virginia Beach (#41, confirmed for McCain). Hard to imagine that Mesa didn't vote for McCain, either, and Fort Worth is probably more likely to have done so than Oklahoma City anyway. Of course, if Jacksonville (#12) did vote for McCain, the point is moot. Has Phoenix been confirmed for Obama? It voted decisively for Kerry, and Maricopa County swung slightly towards Obama, so I don't think it's worth checking. Quote Of the top 100 cities, the only other ones that could potentially go for McCain (with varying degrees of likelihood) are: Phoenix suburbs, Colo. Springs, OKC and Tulsa, suburbs of Dallas (and also the city of Corpus Christi) Tex, Wichita, Kan., some in Orange (also Bakersfield and/or Chula Vista) CA, Anchorage, suburbs of Vegas (though prob. not), Fort Wayne, Ind., It's also worth checking out the south Fla. ones due to concentration of Cubans. Hialeah is the only really big heavily Cuban city (other than Miami, of course). But I think it's fairly Democratic nonetheless. Would have to check, of course. Hialeah might be the only city in Miami-Dade that McCain won. Its just that the non-Cuban Hispanics are increasing in number and are way more Democratic than the Cubans. According to Lephead's Florida page, cities in Miami-Dade with a pop. over 10,000 that McCain carried: hialeah coral gables miami lakes hialeah gardens sweetwater miami springs key biscayne Only Hialeah and Hialeah Gardens are majority Cuban. Title: Re: Results of large cities Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 06, 2010, 05:13:35 PM For the record Rochester, Minnesota now has over 100k people. It voted:
Obama 53.56% McCain 44.45% Other 1.99% Twin Cities: St. Paul Obama 75.58% McCain 22.38% Other 2.04% Minneapolis Obama 81.15% McCain 16.77% Other 2.09% |