Talk Elections

Irish Elections in 2009

5 June: Local Elections
5 June: European Elections
TBD: Dáil By-Elections in Dublin South and Dublin Central
October: 2nd Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty

Though the current Dáil can run until 2012, there is a not unreasonable possibility of a general election this year. It's also possible that other referenda could arise (probably at the same time as the Lisbon Treaty) - most probably one regarding 'children's rights', particularly relating to the laws on statutory rape.

Avril Doyle MEP (FG/EPP-East) will not be defending her European seat. Doyle is coming to the end of her 2nd term in the European Parliament and is the current leader of the FG delegation there. Initial indications are that she may be calling a halt to her political career. (Though she strikes me as a possible FG Presidential candidate for 2011).
- The Irish Times (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0107/breaking37.htm)

In 2004, FG won 2 of the 3 seats in the East constituency (http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2004E&cons=240). This time out it looks like 1 FF, 1 FG with the final seat now probably a contest between FG and Labour.

What's the latest news on the Referendum ? Any polls ?

Who gets to decide when the special election to replace the late Independent TD Tony Gregory is held?  The Taoiseach?  I know the party of a late or resigned TD gets to decide when to call a by-election and (at least roughly) when the election is held, but I don't know who in the party gets to make that decision.  Does Taoiseach Brain Cohen have the descretion over the timing of by-elections to fill both vacancies, through his position as leader of the party of late Fianna Fáil TD Séamus Brennan and though his position as Taoiseach in the case of Tony Gregory?  Could he (or whomever gets to make the decision) keep the seat vacant for the rest of the 30th Dáil if he wants).  Is a by-election is likely in either constituency?  When will one likely be held in either constituency (Séamus Brennan's constituency Dublin South and Tony Gregory's constituency Dublin Central)?  What are people's predictions regarding the by-elections if they are held?  I remember reading on this site that Fianna Fáil was expected to hold Brennan's seat in Dublin South, but I haven't read speculation on the possible Dublin Central by-election or checked out the 2007 results.

I'm not aware of any polls since last November (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=61532.msg1818353#msg1818353). It's not been getting much attention in the last few weeks, but I'd imagine we'll probably have some more polling before too long. It's too early too say much for certain on it though.

Highly unlikely that FF take either by-election seat; unless Brennan's son runs in Dublin South and even then...

As things stand it is likely that however can rile so-called public anger the most will win either seat.

And the lisbon treaty will fail again. And it will be hilarious.

For a by-election to come about, the Dáil must pass a resolution directing that a writ be issued to the returning officer of the relevant constituency to hold an election to fill the vacancy. There is no time limit for the passing of the resolution by the Dáil. In effect therefore the Government should be able to control the timing of by-elections and can effectively prevent their occurance.

You’re quite right that, by custom, the former member's own party will move the writ (but not normally until at least a month has passed). It would be quite unusual (though not unprecedented) for a party to be refused a by-election for one of ‘their’ seats.

We’ve only had one by-election in the last 50 years to replace an Independent TD – Wicklow 1995, when Mildred Fox was elected to replace her father, Johnny. On that occasion the then Taoiseach (John Bruton, FG) moved the writ.

The previous occasion when an Independent seat was vacated was that of Kieran Doherty, the imprisoned IRA hunger striker who died a few weeks after being elected in the 1981 General Election as a TD for Cavan-Monaghan. Twice opposition FF deputies moved writs of by-elections, both of which were narrowly defeated by the Dáil votes when the Government opposed the motions.



Short of a general election occurring (improbable, IMO, but far from impossible) I’d be very surprised if these by-elections weren’t brought about this year. It was thought by some that regarding Dublin South, Fianna Fáil were likely to try and go for the autumn. They’ve been trying to get Séamus Brennan’s son, Shay Brennan, to run (something that is apparently increasingly likely).

Traditionally when multiple vacancies arise the by-elections are held on the same day. The delay in the calling of the Dublin South by-election has already raised qualms amongst the opposition and I suspect that they will seek to have the elections held in the first half of the year and indeed may move the writ on Dublin Central in themselves to try and force this. 5 June (the date for the local and European elections) seems like a not unreasonable bet to me.



Dublin South
Fianna Fáil got 41% in Dublin South in the General. Their junior partners did fairly well there. Séamus Brennan was a long-standing, well respected TD and there’s no doubt that a significant element of the electorate would be sympathetic to sending his son to replace him.

However, a Government party has not won a by-election since 1982, a streak of 18 losses now. Fianna Fáil is currently at an all-time low in polling. They’re coming off a major referendum defeat, the loss of a personally popular Dublin based Taoiseach to financial scandal and the unmitigated death, decapitation and destruction of the Celtic Tiger. I think their chances are slim. On paper this looks to me to be a Fine Gael pick-up with Labour not to be ruled out. I’d also keep an eye on what independents step forward.


Dublin Central (2007 General Election Result (http://electionsireland.org/counts.cfm?election=2007&cons=85))

Another constituency where a reasonable number of pros for FF. Bertie Ahern’s home constituency - his electoral machine (and it’s very definitely his machine, not Fianna Fáil’s) is a huge asset. If a Bertie-ite is chosen as the FF nominee then they certainly can’t be ruled out. However, the likely favoured FF candidate is Mary Fitzpatrick – not a Bertie-ite by any means, indeed someone who begrudges what she felt was Bertie’s cold shoulder in the last General Election.

On paper, this seems to me to be a potential Labour gain, but getting a good, party-uniting candidate may not be easy. There is word of an Independent Gregory-ite candidate being put forward who would have a good basis for a run, but it’s too early to speculate too much on this. Fine Gael can’t necessarily be dismissed either.

We’ll have to wait and see on this one.

Labour already have one seat here (Costello) - would they really go for another? In a GE, the chances of retaining both are very slim even in good circumstances for Labour and then there are vote splitting and transfer problems.

Unless someone associated with Gregory runs (who?), I'd go with FG gain here for now.

Almost certainly. It'd be remarkable if an organised political party with a realistic shot at a seat didn't contest it. They may have difficulty finding the right candidate but I'd bet my bottom dollar on there being a Labour candidate on the ballot. The only way I'd see this not happening is if they were to support some Gregory-ite candidate, but I think that's quite unlikely.



Certainly, the chances aren't fantastic of retaining 2. However, presumably with no Bertie to run (and so presumably a less effective Drumcondra Mafia) and no Gregory, the prospects increase markedly. Without Bertie, even at the best of times, I couldn't see FF taking 2 here and these are of course not the best of times.

The hypothetical Labour incumbent will have had a number of years to try and establish their own base and given a very fractured leftist vote in the constituency, couldn't be ruled out in a General Election. Plus at the very least, their chances of retaining 1 increase - while Deputy Costello may not be enamoured with the idea, the Labour Party should definitely be contesting the seat.



There's a couple of possibilities from the Gregory camp. Mick Rafferty, who took his seat on the City Council in 2004 and has been part of Gregory's campaign team for some time, is a possibility. It's much too early to say though.

New Sunday Independent / Quantum Research survey:

Yes - 55%
No - 30%
Undecided - 15%

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20090111/world-news/irish-to-back-eu-treaty-in-new-vote

The Sunday Independent lack all credibility.
I never post their 'polling' on anything.

Following Labour deciding to move the writ for a by-election in Dublin South, the matter has been approved by the Dáil. It will be held on the same day as the Euopean and Local elections, 5 June.

- The Irish Times (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0204/1233713217516.html)

So when do you (Jas, and also Gully Foyle - I mean The Man Machine) now think the Dublin Central by-election will be held?  As Finian McGrath was an anti-Government Independent the Government might not have the credibility to delay the calling of that election like they did in Dublin South.  Perhaps Fianna Fáil is concerned that if Fine Gael or Labour or a Gregorite independent win both by-elections (as seems likely), expelled (caucus-wise) Fianna Fáil TD Jim McDaid will come out against the government, the Greens will withdraw from the government, ex-Fine Gael TD Michael Lowry will come on board and the non-Sinn Féin opposition (the current Fine Gael (51), Labour (20) and Green (6) TDs, the two TDs elected in the special elections, McDaid, Lowry, Joe Behan (who resigned from Fianna Fáil on 17 October), Finian McGrath (who withdrew his support from the Government on 20 October according to ElectionsIreland.org (http://electionsireland.org/results/general/30thdail/changes.cfm))) will have 83 TDs, enough to form a government of their own unless John O'Donoghue resigns as Ceann Comhairle which would put a sure second seat in Kerry South for Fianna Fáil in serious jeopardy.  How cozy are the Greens in government now, by the way?

I'd say it's now all but certain that the Dublin Central by-election will also be held on 5 June.
Both seats will almost certainly fall to the opposition - but the Government should still be able to stand it's ground.

Fianna Fáil, the Greens and the ex-PDs together make 83 (which is just enough anyway) and they still retain the outright support of 2 Independents (Lowry and Healy-Rae). Question marks will always hang over just how much Lowry is willing to stand by the Government - but he hasn't wavered so far, despite the abandonment of the Government by other independents and fully-fledged FF TDs.

Neither McDaid nor Behan are necessarily reliable opposition votes. Indeed, I'd suggest that when push comes to shove, they (McDaid, in particular) may be more likely to support than oppose the Government at critical moments.

The Green leadership has so far shown no indication of a willingness to jump ship. They've had considerable issues with that section of the grassroots which were not comfortable entering coalition with FF in the first place - however the parliamentary party remains seemingly resolute. The June election results may be significant.

It's hard to envisage a scenario whereby we have a change of Government without a General Election. I don't see any way the opposition gather a stable coalition of 83+ votes; nor am I inclined to believe that Fine Gael are prepared at this time to enter a government supported by Sinn Féin.

A General Election is though far from inconceivable. Dire economic news continues to come forth on a daily basis. The Government yesterday announced spending cuts of around €2 billion, mostly through pay cuts for public servants - following the breakdown of social partnership (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Partnership), thus hugely increasing the potential for significant industrial action. The Government also intends to recapitalise Irish banks to the cost of €8 billion. New unemployment figures yesterday show that it continues to break records in it's rapid rise - with high profile job losses announced now with regularity. Ireland's credit rating is expected to take a hit in the coming days also undermining international confidence. etc,. etc. ad nauseum.

The Government lost 3 TDs in the first wave of this crisis, but with further spending cuts of €4 billion apparantly required for the next budget and further billions to be found for the coming few years - sooner or later they will be testing the patience and resolve of everyone.

Not to be honest I'm so sick and bored with RTE Radio 1 and the "OMG RECESSION OMG OMG OMG" line of reporting that I haven't been much up to stratch with the news as of late, only to see that Brian Cowen is failing even more epically than before, the more it goes on the worse it gets...

The By-elections will be interesting. At this point I doubt the Govt will last until 2012, if there are a few more deaths/resiginations/resigning the whip....

By the way, when did this happen?

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32786/fine_gael_holds_on_to_lead_in_ireland/

Fine Gael: 33 (-2 on Nov 2008)
Fianna Fail: 28 (-2)
Labour: 14 (nc)
Sinn Fein: 9 (+1)
Green: 8 (+3)

The poll was published on 1 February in the Sunday Business Post, research by RedC.

Some may also be interested in their numbers on the Lisbon Treaty which were 58-28-14.

I'm not sure how much credibility I attach to either set of numbers though.

I meant a more general question about when it happened that Fianna Fail's fortunes went so far south. Clearly it's not an immediately recent development since the November poll also had them 5 points behind Fine Gael. I suppose it's probably economic crisis-related.

It's interesting to see in which countries the governing parties are suffering for the bad economy against where the governing parties seem to be doing swimmingly. (Compare Britain and Ireland to Australia, where the ALP has seen its poll ratings soar to the immense pre-election leads they had in 2007.) The US is not great for comparison because we've had a party change since the crisis began.

The last poll that had Fianna Fáil above 30% was on 21 October when they led Fine Gael 36-28.
Last week's poll makes 3 in a row in which they're trailing FG:
14 Nov (TNS-MRBI) 26-33
23 Nov (RedC) 30-35
1 Feb (RedC) 28-33

You're quite right that the economy is the major reason for the shift. As I noted before (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=61532.msg1814714#msg1814714), these numbers are historic lows for FF. Since then the economy has only gotten worse. Only last week, the Taoiseach, after ending social partnership (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Partnership) and making significant public service wage cuts (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0204/1233713217483.html), has said we should expect a 10-12% fall in our standard of living (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0206/1233867922934.html); as well as advising that unemployment is likely to easily surpass 10% (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0205/1233787117580.html) this year. Since the budget, protests, such as third-level students (below), have been increasingly common - and with the Government needing to billions in expenditure year-on-year for at least 4 more years...

()


On a somewhat unrelated point, it seems to me that our economic woe also the reason why the numbers in favour of the Lisbon Treaty continue to rise - the idea that because we have been saved an even worse downturn because we are in the eurozone seems has gotten quite a bit of play and would seem at this point to have been adopted as conventional wisdom.

Now for the Brits to get the same idea (I'm not sure if it's literally *true*, but there's certainly some truth in there.)

TNSmrbi Poll for tomorrow's Irish Times (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0212/breaking95.htm):

TNS were the most accurate pollsters in the last election.
The below numbers include data from the new poll; the previous TNS poll in November; and the General Election.

	TNSmrbi	TNSmrbi	Election
	Feb 09	Nov 08	May 07
Fianna Fáil	22%	27%	42%
Fine Gael	32%	34%	28%
Labour	24%	14%	10%
Sinn Féin	8%	7%	7%
Greens	4%	4%	5%
Indies/Others	9%	13%	8%

Labour outpoll Fianna Fáil for the first time ever, on the back of a 10 point surge, as FF plumb new depths leading a terribly unpopular Government (see below). And yet still (and thankfully) the pollsters continue to find that the public have no great appetite for Enda Kenny's Fine Gael.

The poll puts FF at almost half the support they had at the General Election; and Labour at almost 2¹/₂ times their support then.


Satisfaction with the Government?
14-82

Prefer a change of Government?
62-28


More data should be available tomorrow and Saturday, presumably to include new Lisbon numbers.

Wow.

Fianna Epic Fail.

OK, I need to go repent.  Sorry.

I move that we now say epic fáil instead of epic fail.

More numbers from the TNS poll.

Leadership Satisfaction Ratings
Brian Cowen (FF) 24-69 (Satisfieds: -2)
Enda Kenny (FG) 30-52 (Satisfieds: -3)
Eamon Gilmore (Lab) 44-32 (Satisfieds: +6)
John Gormley (Grn) 29-47 (Satisfieds: +1)
Gerry Adams (SF) 32-40 (Satisfieds: -1)

Only Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has a net positive satisfaction rating, and is at his highest satisfaction rating ever.
Cowen and Adams are now at their lowest satisfaction ratings ever; Kenny is at his lowest since 2003.


Fianna Fáil Supporters
Satisfaction with the Taoiseach? 56-39
Support the Government? 40-55

Green Party Supporters
Satisfaction with the Taoiseach? 18-79
Prefer Change of Government? 61-29
Support the Government? *-85

*unpublished

Gilmore for Taoiseach? :)

Why aren't the Greens going to collapse the goverment? (In saying that, elections are three years away, but which this opportunity will be wasted, however given the order of things right now I can't imagine anyone wanting to run this country. The meeja alone are bad enough, see the thread I posted in Individual politics.)

Either way as I said on the other thread on the other board, THIRD PLACE! THIRD PLACE!

Btw even if these results WERE to be repeated come election time (not going to happen, the FF machine is still a mighty one...), FF would still finish second though embarrasingly. Simply Labour don't have the tradition or organization to finish second, also there would be trouble with transfers.

Okay I'm bored and have decided to guess (Stress on this) the seat distrubtion if that were to happen in an election. However this is truly unpredictable, for example I suspect there might be alot of Labour-FF transfers, much more than usual, as I suspect with others is that what is happening is the erosion of FFs working class vote and then there are the Greens transfers.... And of course it is impossible to predict independents, so I sort of ignored them unless there is an incumbent.

Carlow-Kilkenny: 2FF 2FG 1LAB
Cavan-Monaghan: 1FF 3FG 1SF (Though if SF run a second candidate, they might beat FG for the final seat)
Clare: 2FF 2FG (even if that Poll still difficult to see how any result can very different without Inds)
Cork East: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Cork North Central: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Cork North West: 1FF 2FG
Cork South Central: 1FF 3FG 1LAB
Cork South West: 1FF 2FG
Donegal North East: 1FF 1FG 1SF
Donegal South West: 1FF 1FG 1SF
Dublin Central (still has to be by-election here): 1FF 1FG 2LAB (The Dublin ones are probably the least predictable... alot would depend on where Bertie's personal vote would go and there is always SF)
Dublin Mid West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF (very tricky, this is the sort of suburban area which should see massive swings against FF)
Dublin North: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC
Dublin North Central: 1FF 1FG 1IND (If Finian McGrath doesn't run, then either FG/LAB gain (might be so anyway), I'm hoping Richard Bruton might become leader of FG by then, so if so FG gain)
Dublin North East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Dublin North West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Dublin South (By election soon): 1FF 2FG 2LAB
Dublin South Central: 1FF 1FG 2LAB 1SF
Dublin South East: 0FF 2FG 1LAB 1GP
Dublin South West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF
Dublin West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC
Dun Laoghaire: 1FF 1FG 2LAB
Galway East: 1FF 3FG
Galway West: 1FF 2FG 2LAB (a bit ambitious this one...)
Kerry North: 0FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF
Kerry South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Kildare North: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Kildare South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Laois-Offaly: 2FF 3FG (lol)
Limerick: 1FF 2FG
Limerick City: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Longford-Westmeath: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Louth: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1SF
Mayo: 2FF 3FG (could 1-4 if Enda still leader)
Meath East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Meath West: 1FF 2FG
Roscommon-Sleitrim: 1FF 2FG
Sligo-Nleitrim: 1FF 2FG
Tipperary North: 0FF 1FG 1LAB 1IND
Tipperary South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Waterford: 1FF 1FG 2LAB
Wexford: 1FF 2FG 2LAB (maybe could be 1-3-1)
Wicklow: 1FF 2FG 2LAB

Which Leaves... (placeholder)

They need a reason they can sell, to the media and the electorate, to walk out on. So far, they've been unflinching. They've sat through the public sector pay cut and the bank recapitalisation without a hint of real dissatisfaction. I don't see what would shift them at the moment.


:)

Disagree
1FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
That's with Mary White (Grn) defending the last seat in a tight race with both FF and Lab.

So FG and Lab gains from FF.


1FF, 2FG, 1SF, and ... not sure. Depends very much on who stands. Would FG run 3 candidates? Would SF run 2? Would Labour run a credible candidate? Would Connolly run again or some other reasonable Independent?
I think on these numbers FF are only probable to win a second if the answer to all of the above is no. Odds are that one of the above answes though is yes, so I'll put it down as 1 Ind as a sort of default.

So FG and IND gains from FF.


One of the amazing results of 1992 - Ireland's first Muslim TD, the unknown and unexpected Dr. Bhamjee elected on the Spring Tide.

I'd predict a repeat:
1FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab

Lab gain from FF


Agree
Though Labour would be in strong contention for a second seat.

FG gain from FF


Agree
I'd again think that Labour could strongly contend for a 2nd here on these numbers though.

FG gain from FF


Agree - once more Labour in contention for the final seat against FG though.
Possible Cabinet seat lost here for Minister for Education Batt O'Keefe.

FG gain from FF


1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab and again...unsure for the final seat.
I can't see a 3 FG seat here. FF would have a shot at defending their 2nd seat. I wouldn't even dismiss the Greens to retake it. Cork SC is an odd place - Pat Cox won here, Kathy Sinnott lost by 6 votes or so. Can't rule out a random Independent. A good 2nd Labour candidate could also steal it.

For want of filling it in I think FF defending th 2nd seat is what I'll punt for.

No change.


1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
(Though I could have agreed with your prediction also - or even 2 FG, 1 Lab.)

Lab gain from FG


Agree

SF gain from FF


Agree

SF gain from FF


1 FF, 2 Lab, 1 SF
Incredibly diffficult to predict what happens in Dublin Central without Ahern and Gregory. The absence of predicting a FG seat here is either genius or insane and nothing in between.

Lab and SF gains from FF and Ind


Agree

SF gain from Grn


1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
Greens to just about hold off a Socialist gain here.

Lab gain from FF


1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab

Lab gain from Ind


1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF

SF gain from FF


1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 SF

SF gain from FF


1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
With Labour pushing hard for the Green seat as well.

Lab gain from FF


Agree

Lab gain from FF


1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
One of the most difficult constituencies so far. Where does the McDowell vote go? I suspect enough of it gets to FF to help them over the line. Gormley obviously not safe - but it really depends on the 2nd candidates of FG and Lab.

No change.


Agree
Though a 2nd Lab candidate would give SF a run for their money.

SF gain from FF


Agree
Though the Minister for Finance might well sweat it out.

Soc gain new seat


1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 PBP

People Before Profit to gain one in a difficult one to forecast.

PBP gain from FF and Grn.


1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Assuming Labour can find a non-joke candidate.

Lab gain from FF


2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab

Greakish to hold his ex-PD seat under the FF banner. FG to pick up a former FF seat, but would technically be a gain from PD.

FG gain from PD


Agree

Lab gain from FF


2 FF, 1 Lab

Given the Ceann Comhairle's automatic re-election, only 2 seats actually up for grabs. Healy-Rae won't run again, and FF is the natural home of these votes. There should be enough for FF to take one of the two elected seats. The other should be close between FG and Lab, but on these numbers Lab should get it.

Lab and FF gain from FG and Ind

1 FF, 1 FG, 2 Lab

Lab gain from FF


Agree

FG gain from FF


2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Another one where a non-joke Lab candidate would be needed - otherwise it would probably be 3 FG.

Lab gain from FF


Agree

FG gain from FF


Agree

FF seat lost


Agree

FG gain from FF


Agree

Lab and FG gain from FF and new seat


Agree

Technically FF gain from Ind, but no real change.


Agree

Lab gain from FF


Agree

FG gain from FF


Agree

FG gain from FF


Agree

FG gain from FF


Agree
But I've no idea what will actually happen to Lowry's vote.

Lab gain from FF


Agree

Lab gain from FF


1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Close between FG/Lab for seat #4

FG gain from FF


2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Possible FG gain from FF. I don't see Lab running 2 here.

No change

Agree

Lab gain from FF

Translated into the colors Jas used for the two non-dissoliving Government parties and the two main opposition parties :):

Satisfaction with the Government?
14-82

Prefer a change of Government?
62-28

Our predictions collated:

	Jas	Gully
Fine Gael	63	72
Fianna Fáil	46	44
Labour	38	37
Sinn Féin	11	8
Greens	4	1
Socialist	1	2
People Before Profit	1	0
Independents	2	2

...which surprises me as to just how substantial I have the FF/Lab gap at.

If Fine Gael becomes by far the largest party after this election as both of you presently predict (there doesn't seem to be much doubt now about them surpassing Fianna Fáil, but the final result could be closer), is there any chance Fianna Fáil and Labour could form a coalition government (Jas predicts the two parties to have 84 TDs between them, just enough for a majority alone if the Ceann Comhairle comes from one of those two parties; some of Jas's projected four Independents or the Greens could give the government a cushion) as I've heard a Fine Gaal-Labour government might be "too large"?  I remember someone saying that about a Fianna Fáil-Labour government with 98 TDs counting the outgoing Ceann Comhairle, whereas Jas projects Fine Gael and Labour to have 109 TDs between them and Gully The Man Machine projects those two parties to have 116 seats between them (although I imagine he would have projected Fianna Fail to elect 2 TDs in Kerry South if he knew about the FF Ceann Comhairle being automatically reelected, which would mean "only" 115 TDs for Fine Gaal and Labour before the new Ceann Comhairle was elected; please correct me Gully if I'm mistaken).

What seat allocation would that poll give us in the June EU elections?

Well, first things first...I wouldn't take for granted that after the next General Election FG will be the largest party. Given that we really don't know when the next election will be between now and 2012, and given how quickly things can change, little can be taken for granted. Plus this is but one poll, with some very unusual numbers. Even though TNS have been our most accurate pollster, one shouldn't be prepared to rule out the possibility that this is a rogue poll.

Now, that said, if a General Election was to be held in the short term and we did get results like this, then a FG-Lab Government is the only realistic outcome. (Your addition of our coalition numbers is a bit off btw, my numbers would give FG/Lab 101 TDs, Gully 109.) If FG get high enough, maybe a minority Government could be considered - but I doubt either of our projections allow that to come about. I don't see Labour contemplating coalition with Fianna Fáil in the medium-term ; FF are politically radioactive at the moment, to be seen to be propping them up could be electoral suicide, and Labour remember that coalition with FF in 1992 led to long-lasting electoral punishment.

Governments that are 'too-large' find that they have problems on their own side rather than with the opposition. It's something which I believe has arisen occasionally in other parliamentary democracies too.

The European elections here will be complicated by the presumed presence of Libertas, a leading anti-Lisbon Treaty campaign group. Nobody rally knows how they'll perform.

However, taking the numbers at face value, I'd suggest...
Dublin: 1 FG, 1 Lab + either Lab/SF for the 3rd seat.
Lab/SF gain from FF

South: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind
No change
Though I really have no idea how Independent, Kathy Sinnott's vote will hold up.

Northwest: 1 FG, 1 Ind, + either FF/SF for the 3rd seat.
Either no change or SF gain from FF.
Again though judging how well the Independent vote will old is difficult.

East: 2 FG, 1 Lab
Lab gain from FF


Totals:
Fine Gael 5
Labour 2-3
Fianna Fáil 1-2
Sinn Féin 0-2
Independents 2

Oops.  I added FG and FF by mistake.  101 and 109 are still above the FF/Lab figure for this last election, but I understand the circumstances would be different.

Jas, Thanks for not punishing my laziness and counting up my tally. :P

Anyway I will just add that I don't think that the Greens will do as well as you predict, especially considering the location of their seats - Dublin North, Dublin SE and maybe Dublin South seem to be the only ones which could be possible holds. Possible. Though they might pick up some ex-FF vote from other places. Also in large parts of the country (say Clare or Galway East) it is still difficult for the Labour Party to find a non-joke candidate, though in saying that they will probably some more counciller incumbents after this years locals than before. Also don't underestimate the extent to which large rural conservative constituencies vote for either FF or FG and no-one else (though you are right in your 1992 comparsion, however remember Personality politics is what matters here). Also yes are probably right about Kerry South, I forgot about the Ceann Comhairle. It is epic fail than the CC sits in a 3 seat constituencies, a 2 seat election is rather lame (especially considering that the CC is a member of one of the two major parties).

No problem. I just wanted to see how close our general numbers were.


Well, the poll pretty much has the Greens exactly where they were at the last election. I still think they'll be fairly transfer-friendly (though obviously much less so than they have been) and should see more FF transfers to pick up on. I'd agree though that there would be no safe Green seat in this scenario.


You're quite right. Some of Labour's candidate selections are shameful. However, if we are to presume they pick up 24% of the vote, then surprises will emerge (presumably on a bigger scale than in 1992). I'd suggest even that I've been somewhat conservative about their potential in this prediction...given those sorts of numbers.

Odd Demographics on this Poll I took from Politics.ie (not sure how accurate, but worth posting anyway, especially given their counter-intuitiveness):


Lol@FF in Dublin. But those Dublin numbers for the three parties put together are far too low, what gives?

I'd guess that undecideds/don't knows weren't excluded, but I don't know.

The same TNS poll, for publication on tomorrow's Irish Times (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0215/breaking45.htm), shows support for Lisbon increasing.
In favour: 51 (+8)
Against: 33 (-6)

Breakdown by Party
Fianna Fáil: 60-31  
Fine Gael: 59-29  
Labour: 53-34  
Greens: 57-33  
Sinn Féin: 30-49

The first Millard Browne/IMS poll (for the Irish Independent) since the election was published today.

State of the Parties

	MB/IMS	Election	MB/IMS
	Feb 09	May 08	May 08
Fianna Fáil	25	42	37
Fine Gael	30	27	25
Labour	22	10	12
Sinn Féin	7	7	9
Green	5	5	5
Ind/Other	10	7	9

Satisfaction Ratings
Government: 10-86
Taoiseach Brian Cowen (FF): 21-72
Enda Kenny (FG): 29-57
Eamon Gilmore (Lab): 52-28
Gerry Adams (SF): 37-41
John Gormley (Grn): 28-52

Should there be a General Election called?
52-40

The Greens are crazy to not bring down the government at this point. Just doing so would be worth a big bump in their approval ratings, if not necessarily support.

Same IMB/IMS poll:

Lisbon II:
46-27


In other Euro-news, Fianna Fáil will be changing their European affiliation and moving from the small UEN to the Liberals (Irish Times (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0228/1224241991228.html)).



Paul Gogarty (Grn-Dublin MW) might agree with you. He was interviewed by Hot Press (a music magazine with forays into quasi-leftist anti-establishment political interviews/reporting) last week and made explicitly clear his view that the Greens were being screwed by Fianna Fáil. (see The Irish Times (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0225/1224241775832.html))

My own view, is that pulling out of Government now, and so effectively forcing an Election would be putting every Green seat on the line. Having rowed in directly behind FF on pretty much every major decision of the Government, they would (IMO) need a credible issue to walk out on.

The Greens potentially have a very strong position within Government until 2012. It's possible that the best advice for the Greens is to act on the assumption that they will be all voted out in the next election, and so work to maximise the implementation of Green policies within the lifetime of this Government using their new found leverage as the only thing keeping a historically policy-pliant FF in power.

'bout time.

Hopefully, this deals the final blow to the UEN after the June elections.

Pity it has to be the ALDE. I'd rather they not taint liberalism. Why not the EPP-ED?

Because that's Fine Gael (IIRC).

They could have joined ED. Fine Gael is in the EPP. Although I guess that opens up rivalries with the British Conservatives.

Ah. Yeah, I suppose their party is also terra prohibita.

Today's Sunday Business Post/RedC poll:

Fine Gael 30 (-3)
Fianna Fáil 23 (-5)
Labour 22 (+8)
Greens 6 (-2)
Sinn Féin 11 (+2)
Ind/Other 8 (-)

The numbers are in the same territory as the MB/INS and TNS/MRBI within the last 2 weeks.

Hilarious.

As it happens, a motion to pull out of Government is on the agenda at the Green Party conference today - put forward by the Dublin Mid-West (that of Paul Gogarty - see above). Not expected to get anywhere, but the presence of the motion reflects the discomfort of many members with the coalition.

Full Irish Times Story (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0307/breaking8.htm)

I went one paragraph over "fair share" (if that limit even exists in Ireland), but I doubt the Irish Times will sue. :)

Following the defeat of Lisbon I, the Government commissioned a study to try and learn where they went wrong from a group of academics. I've just noticed that the final report ('Attitudes and Behaviour in the Referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon') is now available online. Anyone interested can take a look at it here (http://geary.ucd.ie/images/Publications/Media/ucd_geary_institute_report.pdf).

The following is the conclusion to the Executive Summary:

New Sunday Independent/Quantum Research poll:

Fine Gael: 26%
Fianna Fail: 23%
Labour Party: 18%
Sinn Fein: 5%
Independents: 4%
Greens: 3%
Others/Undecided: 21%

Lisbon Treaty:

54% Yes
24% No
22% Undecided

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ff-facing--wipeout-in-budget-backlash-1713447.html

Not a credible polling company (or a credible newspaper, IMO).
Better off randomly guessing numbers yourself frankly.


FTR, the best website for monitoring Irish political polls is guthanphobail.net (http://guthanphobail.net/index.htm)
It is though in Irish ('guth an phobail' meaning 'voice of the people'). The main polling monitor feature is on the right-hand side of the page and despite the Irish should be mostly understandable - beneath the graph is a simple table logging polls by date starting with the most recent. The table lists the polling company, newspaper, sample size and party result. (Most of the parties have the same initials as in English, but for reference LO = Labour; CG = Greens; Eile = Others.)

The site contains some others neat features but most need some level of Irish to really get something out of them. (The stuff on the 2007 Dáil and Northern Irish Assembly elections is available in English (http://guthanphobail.net/english.htm) though.)

Indications are now that, surprisingly, the Dublin Central by-election might not be held on 5 June - the same day as the local and European elections and the Dublin South by-election. - Irish Independent (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/only-one-byelection-likely-on-day-of-polls-1716782.html)

Likely because FF want to run someone (probably Mary Fitzpatrick) running in the local council elections who would otherwise have to abandon the locals and risk everything on winning the by-election.

The decision probably won't bother Labour much either (as theyr're in a similar situation) or Sinn Féin who ideally would want to run Mary Lou McDonald (who's running for a European seat). Fine Gael are likely to be the most put out - their candidate Paschal Donoghue has been pretty much campaigning all on his own now for quite some time.

Tomorrow's Sunday Business Post/RedC poll:

Fine Gael 33 (+2)
Fianna Fáil 23 (-5)
Labour 19 (+2)
Sinn Féin 8 (+1)
Greens 7 (-)
Ind/Other 10 (-)


RTÉ also report (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0425/poll.html), that:

Interesting: Libertas with 3-times the support in France than in Ireland.

That's misleading. Libertas is polling high in France only because Libertas in France is the MPF-CPNT. I think France is the only country where Libertas has managed to affiliate/whatever with a relatively important local entity. People aren't voting Libertas, and MPF voters probably have no clue what Libertas is. If Libertas ran alone with no parties, it would poll 0.5% or so.

I haae the full breakdown now...participants were asked their voting intentions for each f a general Election, local elections and European elections.

	General	Local	European
Fine Gael	33	29	32
Fianna Fáil	23	23	25
Labour	19	20	17
Sinn Féin	8	9	8
Green	7	7	7
Libertas	-	-	2
Ind/Other	10	12	10

For reference, the following are the most recent results in each of those elections:

	General	Local	European
Fine Gael	27	28	28
Fianna Fáil	42	32	29
Labour	10	11	11
Sinn Féin	7	8	11
Green	5	4	4
Libertas	-	-	-
Ind/Other	6	17	17

On the European elections, RedC have put out the results broken down by constituency, but obviously the numbers are the result of much smaller sample sizes and so are very possibly useless, but nonetheless...

	Dublin	East	South	Northwest
Fine Gael	30	37	34	29
Fianna Fáil	26	21	24	29
Labour	16	21	19	11
Sinn Féin	8	6	4	14
Green	13	5	5	5
Libertas	1	3	3	1
Ind/Other	7	8	12	11

All 4 constituencies are 3 seaters, so a quota of 25% is the target.
On the above numbers, it would look like 1 FF and 1 FG in all 4. Most likely Labour seats in East and South, and probably Labour in Dublin. The final seat in Northwest too tough to call between Labour, Sinn Féin and Independent. Libertas appear to be nowhere.

That would mean Sinn Féin lose 1 in Dublin (where there is a seat reduction); Lab gain from FG in East; Lab gain from Ind (Kathy Sinnott) in South; and possibly no change in Northwest or Lab/SF gain from Ind (Marian Harkin).


One other thing from the poll, Lisbon:
Yes 59 (-)
No 27 (+1)
Don't Know 14 (-1)

The Government have confirmed that the by-elections in Dublin South and Dublin Central will be hed on June 5 - the same day as the local and European elections. The decision comes following pressure from Fine Gael who were about to put motions on moving the by-election writs before the Dáil.

---

In other news, one of the demoted Ministers of State, John McGuinness (FF, Carlow-Kilkenny) has been making waves criticising the direction of Government and more particularly the competence of Mary Coughlan (FF, Donegal SW) - the Tánaiste (Dep. PM) and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment (McGuinness's former Department).

McGuinness though has continued to vote with the Government over the past week - but there is an air of uncertainly hanging over just how dependable his vote will prove.

Couple of pieces of news...

Patricia McKenna (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patricia_McKenna) has left the Green Party and will run as an Independent in the European election in Dublin to try and regain the seat she lost in 2004 following 2 terms of office. McKenna had been the leading personality against going into Government with Fianna Fáil (she lost by about a 2-1 margin in the leadership election against John Gormley shortly thereafter) and has been fairly critical of the Greens efforts since then.

McKenna is also notable as an anti-Lisbon (or really any Euro-treaty you care to mention) campaigner - another issue that divides the Greens. She has, IMO, no real chance of election, but it will be interesting to see how she performs compared to the official Green candidate, Sen. Deirdre de Búrca.

---

The candidate declarations for the 2 Dáil by-elections on 5 June are almost done. By far the highest profile and most notable is Fine Gael's candidate in Dublin South. George Lee was, until yesterday, the economic editor for RTÉ News (RTÉ being Ireland's public service broadcaster, á la the BBC) - a position he has held for 13 years. Lee is a household name and a respected economic commentator who has been very critical of Government economic policy for quite some time. The by-election is his to lose.

Fianna Fáil held theirby-election selection conventions last night and have decided to play up their forté for dynastical politics to the max.

In Dublin South, Shay Brennan won in a close contest with Sen. Maria Corrigan. Brennan is the son of Séamus Brennan whose death led to this by-election. He is also an employee of the now nationalised (and vilified) Anglo-Irish Bank.

In Dublin Central, Cllr. Maurice Ahern (70, brother of Bertie) was chosen ahead of Cllr. Mary Fitzpatrick - a selection which reflects a long-standing division within FF in that constiuency.

Neither stand much chance of election, IMO, but they should both have enough votes as being important in determining the eventual winners.


Anyway, we now know the nominations of all the main parties for both constituencies...

Dublin South
Shay Brennan (Fianna Fáil)

Elizabeth Davidson (Green)
- A community worker based in Tallaght. She ran and lost in the local elections there in 2004 and again in the the 2007 General there - that time picking up 3.7% of the vote.

George Lee (Fine Gael)
- Journalist/Economist, see yesterday's post above.

Ross O'Mullane (Independent)
- Mr O'Mullane is proposing to act on the basis of the votes of users of his website forum unitedminds.ie (http://www.unitedminds.ie/index.php).

Shaun Tracey (Sinn Féin)
- A SF party publicity officer, Tracy ran in this constituency in the General taking all of 1.4% of the vote, coming 12th, 1 place behind his party colleague who took 1.6%.

Sen. Alex White (Labour)
 - Barrister, Senator. White was elected a Councillor in the 2004 Locals, but lost in this constituency in the 2007 General taking 5.8% of the vote; bettering his running mate's 4.6%.


Dublin Central
Maurice Ahern (Fianna Fáil)
     
Sen. Ivana Bacik (Labour)
- The most high profile of the declared candidates in this race, Bacik is an academic and barrister, and often gets airtime in the media. She ran in the 2004 Europeans in Dublin as a running mate for incumbent deRossa, and got a respectabe result (9.7%).

Sen. Paschal Donohoe (Fine Gael)
- Elected as a Councillor in 2004, Donoghue ran in this constituency in the General in 2007 and with 9.5% of the 1st preferences (FG's worst result in all 43 constituencies), he came 5th in this 4 seater.

David Geary (Green)
- Solicitor, no electoral experience

Cllr. Maureen O'Sullivan (Independent)
- Supporter of Tony Gregory, whose death brought about this by-election. No electoral experience, beyond being part of Gregory's campaigns; very hard to say how well the Gregory vote will hold up.

Malachy Steenson (Workers' Party)
- No electoral experience. Front-runner to take the wooden spoon.

? (Sinn Féin)
- The last significant declaration to be made. Should be known shortly.

Sunday Independent/Quantum Research poll:

Dublin South:

George Lee (FG): 49%
Alex White (Labour): 12%
Shay Brennan (FF): 9%

Dublin Central:

Paschal Donohoe (FG): 28%
Ivana Bacik (Labour): 20%
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind): 18%
Maurice Ahern (FF): 10%

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fine-gael-storming-ahead-in-vote-poll-1734621.html

Are the results with all candidates included in the poll and the other and undecided (or Other/Undecided grouped together) available somewhere?  I imagine the Undecided vote in Dublin South is greater than 2%, which would give George Lee a majority of the decided vote.  On these numbers Lee would at least win on the second count, and probably the first.  Dublin Central seems likely to take at least three counts, but I'm not sure if Ahern would be eliminated on the first count of three on these numbers or on the second count of four (as I don't know how strong candidates further down are polling).  The article you cited said that "Mr Donohoe will need to poll strongly on first preference" if he is to be elected "as he is likely to suffer from a lack of transfers."  I'm not sure if an 8% margin over the Bacik or a 10% margin over O'Sullivan is enough.  The Ahern vote might determine whether the final head-to-head runoff is between Fine Gael and Labour or between Fine Gael and the Gregoryite Independent, which could be decisive if the non-first preference Fine Gael vote heavily favors Labour and/or O'Sullivan over Fine Gael.  Which of the second- and third-place polling candidates in Dublin Central do resident Irish political experts think is likely to do better head-to-head against Donohue in a final count?

I'm quite sure Ahern won't be bumped out on the first count. The Trot will likely go out first obviously, then I'd expect the Greenie to go out on the second count. I just don't see the Greenie polling more than Ahern.

I'm not sure if Sinn Féin is running a candidate, but they would pretty much certainly be out before Ahern.

Wouldn't the "Trot" (I assume you mean the Workers' Party candidate), the Sinn Féin candidate (if there is one), the Greenie and Ahern all be eliminated on (by which I mean as a result of) the first count if their votes combined are less than that of the next highest polling candidate?  If only one candidate can be eliminated per count no matter what (unless all candidates had met the quota, which is a simple majority here), then I definitely take that back about Ahern potentially being eliminated on the first or even the second counts.  I wasn't saying that I thought Ahern would finish lower than forth, but I thought the first count result might make Ahern being among the top three candidates after all candidates receiving fewer votes than Ahern were eliminated (and their votes redistributed to the top preference among those candidates not yet eliminated) a mathematical impossibility that would result in all but the top three candidates being eliminated as a result of the first count.  Even if there were enough votes for candidates polling worse than Ahern for Ahern to theoretically get into third place or better based on the first count results, I imagine those candidates combined would poll worse than Ahern and I assumed that in that case those candidates would all be eliminated on the first count and that their eliminations and trasfers would leave Ahern in last place out of the remaining four candidates whereby he would be eliminated.  Again (well, I'll be a little more broad in my description this time), that assumes that if, after any count in a one-winner STV (equivilent the the American Instant Runoff voting) Dáil by-election in Ireland, starting with just the leading candidate on that count, then the leading two candidates, then the leading three candidates and so on, if the last of those candidates in terms of votes in that count has more votes in that count than all further behind candidates combined, all of those candidates will be eliminated and their votes transfered before the next count (if there isn't only one candidate left, which would mean that candidate had attained a majority of the vote in that count).  Perhaps Jas or Gully Foyle can educate me on the STV counting procedures in Ireland (or at least those that would apply in a one-winner election with no surplusses from already elected candidates).

You are quite correct, sir.

Still a joke polling company (and newspaper).

Mmm...Yeah.
I'll throw up for comparison the various party 1st preferences for comparison.

Dublin Central

	Poll	Election 07
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	28	10
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	20	13
Maureen O'Sullivan (Gregoryite)	18	13
Maurice Ahern (FF)	10	44
Sinn Féin (SF)	3	9
David Geary (Green)	2	6
Malachy Steenson (Workers)	1	-
Undecided	18	-

Some notes...
Since the poll was put together, Christy Burke has been put forward as Sinn Féin's candidate. Burke was SF's candidate in the constituency from 1982-97, polling in the range of 3-7%. He has since though been elected and retained as a local councillor and if he polls a mere 3% (or within the margin of error of 3%) I'll be very surprised.

Also, Pat Talbot of the 'Immigration Control Platform' will be standing again. Will he improve on his stellar 0.69% in 2007?...watch this space.


Dublin South

	Poll	Election 07
George Lee (FG)	49	27
Alex White (Lab)	12	10
Shay Brennan (FF)	9	41
Elizabeth Davidson (Green)	6	11
Ross O'Mullane (Ind)	2	-
Shaun Tracy (SF)	1	3
Undecided	21	-

As it happens, I currently reside in this constituency (though I'm not registered here). I had some Shay Brennan canvassers around yesterday. I felt kind of sorry for them.



True. Though Lee is the overwhelming favourite and should win comfortably, I'd be surprised if White does that poorly. (Same can be said for Brennan and Tracy, but it's certainly not inconceivable that White could make this a competitive by-election.)


O'Sullivan would do better (Bacik is not suited to this constituency), but though I expect Donoghue to be in the final count, I doubt he wins against either Bacik or O'Sullivan. I also expect Burke to be a serious player in this election and am not yet willing to dismiss the possibility that he could win.

Nominations for the European elections closed at noon today.

The candidates (incumbents marked with a *)...

Dublin
Cllr. Eibhlin Byrne (FF)
- Elected to Dublin City Council in 2004, Byrne is the sitting Lord Mayor of Dublin. In this election, her job is to be election fodder for her running mate.

Sen. Deirdre De Burca (Green)
- A councillor in Wicklow from 1999, De Burca has twice sought election to the Dáil there performing reasonably in 2007. She was one of two Greens appointed to the Senate as one of the Taoiseach's nominations following that election. Loyal to the 'realo' wing of the party. The test will be how well she performes against ex-Green Dublin MEP and former member of the 'fundy' wing of the Greens, Patricia McKenna.
 
Proinsias De Rossa* (Lab)
- Seeking his 3rd consecutive term and 4th term overall, De Rossa will be confident of holding the seat. The former 6-term TD (for variously, Sinn Féin - The Worlers' Party, The Workers' Party and Democratic Left) has vast experience and being the sole Labour candidate shouldn't have any difficulty.

Joe Higgins (Socialist)
- This is Higgins's 3rd straight effort at winning a seat here after netting 3.8% and 5.5% of the vote in 1999 and 2004 respectively. The former 2-term TD lost his seat in 2007 after his constituency lost a seat. Not likely to be a contender this time, but his transfers could be important.

Mary Lou McDonald* (SF)
- Took the 4th and final seat in 2004, McDonald will do well to win now that there is one less seat. She is well thought of by the SF leadership, made party VP recently and has largely been the face of SF in the south despite now twice failing to get elected to the Dáil. Her most recent effort was in Dublin Central and there was some speculation that she would run in the by-election.

Patricia McKenna (Ind)
- Former 2-term Dublin MEP who lost her seat in 2004 (14.5%, 12.7%, 9.6%), she was the most prominent of the anti-Government Greens until she left the party last week, McKenna has no real chance of election here. The contest will be McKenna v De Burca. This may mark part of McKenna's long descent into obscurity.

Gay Mitchell* (FG)
- The former 8-term TD surprised everyone by electing to run for Europe in 2004 and thus abandoning his Dáil seat. Then a leading member of FG, now ?. Anyway, his seat is safe.

Eoin Ryan* (FF)
- A former 3-term TD who won election to Europe in 2004, Ryan will have to fight to win re-election. FF only polled 23% in 2004 and can't afford to let that drop too far such that the 25% quota goes out of reach.

Caroline Simmons (Libertas)
- A solicitor with no electoral experience, Simmons will do well to beat many of her fellow candidates.

Emmanuel Sweeney (Ind)
- Appears to be a veteran of defunct obscure parties, Mr Sweeney is the prohibitive favourite to take the wooden spoon here.

Recent Party Performance: Dublin

	2004	1999	1994
Fianna Fáil	23	25	21
Fine Gael	22	30	24
Labour	22	16	14
Green	10	13	15
Sinn Féin	14	7	3
Socialist	6	4	-

East
Liam Aylward* (FF)
- Former 9-term TD, elected easily enough to Europe is 2004 with the help of his running-mate. There was some difficulty in finding a suitable running-mate this time to help accomplish the same goal. The seat is vulnerable.

Thomas Byrne TD (FF)
- Elected to the Dáil for Meath East in 2007, Byrne is running becasue the Taoiseach asked him to (and apparantly against the advice of his local electoral team). Not even FF want Byrne to win as the party has no appetite for further by-elections - the Dáil majority is already getting too close for comfort.

Nessa Childers (Lab)
- Daughter of former President Erskine Childers (FF), Nessa was elected to a local council in south Dublin in 2004 for the Greens. She defected to Labour last autumn and is well placed to win a European seat in this election.

Kathleen Funchion (SF)
- A young candidate who ran in the General in Carlow-Kilkenny in 2007 but failed to make much impact. This run should increase her profile and maybe help her out for the next General, whenever that may be.

Paddy Garvey (Ind)
- Seems to be someone taking the piss - but can't seem to find out anything substantive yet. I'm all in favour of that.

Micheál E Grealy  (Ind)
- Can't seem to find much, but from what little I can cobble together he seems to be quite...anti-establishment.

Mairéad McGuinness* (FG)
- Former RTÉ Agriculture journalist, turner celebrity candidate, McGuinness helped FG to a dream result in 2004 winning along with her running mate, the now retiring Avril Doyle. McGuinness should walk to re-election. A possible FG nominee for President in 2011.

Raymond O'Malley (Libertas)
- The lowest profile of Libertas's Irish candidates, O'Malley has no electoral experience. He was once a senior member of the Irish Farmers Association, and will very likely revert to anonymity after 5 June.

Sen. John Paul Phelan (FG)
- Phelan narrowly lost out in Carlow-Kilkenny in 2007, and is well placed to capitalise when the next election is called. In the mean-time helping to hold FG's 2 seats in this constituency will be a tough task, despite FG's high-flying in the polls.

Cllr. Tomás Sharkey (SF)
- Sharkey has been a local Councillor in Dundalk, Co. Louth since 2003. Like his running-mate, election isn't the real goal here, this is about picking up profile and experience.

Jim Tallon (Ind)
- Tallon has a lot of experience at not getting elected, having made 12 attempts to get into the Dáil. (His best performance was in 1982, when he netted 0.41% of the vote.) This will be his first failure to get elected to Europe.

Recent Party Performance: East (formerly Leinster)

	2004	1999	1994
Fianna Fáil	25	34	33
Fine Gael	41	34	28
Labour	13	11	15
Green	6	14	12
Sinn Féin	9	6	2

More later...

The Greens have no candidate in the East (Irish) European Parliamentary constituency?

Also, since it is part of the island of Ireland (many would say more than that), can you (after North-West and South) do a candidate list for an analysis of the Northern Ireland constituency?

North West
Pat Gallagher TD (FF)
- 8-term TD froim Donegal and former 2-term MEP, Gallagher has been drafted in to help hoover up votes for FF. As with Thomas Byrne in Ireland East, this isn’t a candidate FF want to win for fear of triggering a by-election that would narrow the Government majority further.

Declan Ganley (Libertas)
- Libertas leader. If he’s right he will be leading 100 new Libertas MEPs in Europe shortly. Ganley’s only electoral experience has been in campaigning against the Lisbon Treaty.

Marian Harkin* (Ind)
- Former TD for Sligo-Leitrim, Harkin won election to Europe on her second attempt in 2004. It can be very difficult for Independents to maintain their vote and similarly difficult to judge how likely that is. As a piece of trivia, she is the only candidate I’ve voted for in an election that won.

Jim Higgins* (FG)
- A former 4-term TD from Mayo, Higgins is looking for his 2nd European term. He should safely retain his seat.

John Francis Higgins (Ind)
- Mr Higgins from Sligo successfully sourced 89 votes in the 2007 General (0.22%). Will he surprise everyone and cobble together the 90,000+ that will be needed to win this time? Probably not…

Thomas King (Ind)
- King will be competing against Higgins for the wooden spoon. He got 60 votes (0.11%) in his run for the Dáil in Galway West in 2007.

Cllr. Padraig MacLochlainn (SF)
- MacLochlainn is a local councillor in Donegal who has made 2 attempts to get elected to the Dáil – the last of which in 2007, he made a good effort at, hampered as SF normally are, by trying to squeeze into a 3-seater. MacLochlainn should be a contender for a seat here.

Noel McCullagh (Ind)
- Mr McCullagh is from Balinasloe, Co. Galway but lives in the Netherlands. He’s been diagnosed with MS and has taken issue with not being allowed medical marijuana. I presume that’s the reasoning behind the campaign. Unlikely to make an impact.

Michael McNamara (Ind)
- A Clare-based farmer and barrister. He seems to be behind reform.ie, which advocates the reform of local government and the EU. Another Independent with no real chance.

Paschal Mooney (FF)
- A Leitrim based ex-Senator, Mr Mooney is clearly less than amused with the party’s decision to put up Pat Gallagher as his running-mate – the decision having been only confirmed on nomination day.

Susan O'Keefe (Lab)
- No previous electoral experience. Ms O’Keefe is best known for working on uncovering corruption in the Irish beef industry in the early 90s. Somewhat surprising that Labour couldn’t find a stronger candidate – Ms O’Keefe only joining the party a few weeks ago has no electoral experience. If the (scant) polling is anything to go by Labour have the potential to win a seat here. We’ll see.

Fiachra O Luain (Ind)
- Another first timer. Donegal-based, Mr O Luain wants a sustainable green economy and to protect Irish neutrality. Unlikely to get anywhere.

Sen. Joe O'Reilly (FG)
- Cavan based, vote sweeper for running-mate Jim Higgins. Maybe…maybe FG could sneak 2 in here if FF implode, Libertas gain no traction, Labour’s candidate really is not good enough and Marian Harkin’s vote struggles to hold up. Maybe…

Recent Party performances: North-West (formerly Connacht-Ulster)

	2004	1999	1994
Fianna Fáil	27	36	42
Fine Gael	24	20	30
Labour	3	3	9
Sinn Féin	16	6	6
Green	-	-	4

South
Dan Boyle (Green)
- Green Party chairman and TD for Cork South Central from 2002-07 losing out a Labour gain in 2007. He was subsequently appointed to the Seanad by the Taoiseach where he is the Green leader. (The only other Green Senator being Deirdre de Burca running in Dublin.) Boyle ran for Europe in Munster in 1994 coming 11th - a feat he can’t fail to better in this field of 10 candidates. He will hope to improve significantly on their 2004 performance of 2% but can’t really pin hopes on election.

Colm Burke* (FG)
- Technically an incumbent, Burke inherited his seat following the election of Simon Coveney to the Dáil in 2007. Formerly a Councillor in Cork, Burke is less than pleased with having a celebrity running mate who might cost him his job.

Brian Crowley* (FF)
- A 4-term MEP and FF’s European leader and sometime mentioned Presidential hopeful. The party’s safest seat at a time when safe seats are hard to come by.

Cllr. Toireasa Ferris (SF)
-   Ferris would win probably easily win the best looking candidate contest but will do well to win anything else in this election. Daughter of SF TD Martin Ferris, Toireasa became a local Councillor in 2003.

Sen. Alan Kelly (Lab)
- Last year’s top receiver of political donations, Kelly has limited political experience – having made it to the Senate in 2007. Labour will be hoping to make a leap from their 4% performance 5 years ago and take a seat.

Seán Kelly (FG)
- A big-name newcomer, Kelly was recently the President of the GAA, Ireland’s largest sporting organisation, which runs our 2 biggest sports, Gaelic football and hurling. FG had almost exactly 1 quota – so it’s unlikely FG can force 2 successes here – though Kelly may have some reach beyond FG’s traditional reach.

Ned O'Keeffe TD (FF)
FF rebel, O’Keefe is though the holder of another seat in the Dáil the party would be unwise to let go. In this case though, O’Keefe would do surprisingly well to unseat his party colleague. The 7-term TD will probably be back in the Dáil shortly to cause concern for the Government, having only recently rejoining the parliamentary party after 4 months as an Independent following his vote of no confidence in the Minister for Health.

Maurice Sexton (Ind)
-   ???

Kathy Sinnott* (Ind)
- Sinnott is seeking a second term and like most Independents must be concerned about the stability of her vote. A disability rights campaigner, but also probably the most high-profile of the conservative Catholic politicians on the national stage. She has been endorsed by Libertas, as she is anti-Lisbon (and, of course, because they couldn’t find a suitable candidate themselves).

Alexander Stafford (Ind)
- A consultant radiologist in Limerick, running for the first time, campaigning for equal access to the health service.

Recent Party performances: South (formerly Munster)

	2004	1999	1994
Fianna Fáil	41	53	42
Fine Gael	25	17	19
Labour	4	6	7
Sinn Féin	7	6	1
Green	2	2	3

Indeed; nor in Ireland North-West.
Only the 2 party Senators are running. They have no real prospect of winning a seat anywhere. The reasons for these two are most likely to retain profile for the individuals.

The party candidate totals are as follows:

Fianna Fáil	8	2 in each
Fine Gael	7	2 in each except Dublin
Sinn Féin	5	2 in East, 1 in others
Labour	4	1 in each
Libertas	3	1 in each, except South where they have endorsed Kathy Sinnot (Ind)
Green	2	1 in Dublin and South
Socialist	1	Dublin
Independent	14	Dublin 2; East 3; North-West 6; South 3

Coming up :)

Northern Ireland
Steven Agnew (Green)
- Got 2% in Belfast East in the 2007 Assembly race. Will do well not to be the first eliminated.

Jim Allister* (TUV)
- Allister is the leader, founder and most high profile member of Traditonal Unionist Voice – a party set up in opposition to the DUP decision to enter power-sharing with Sinn Féin. They are anti-Good Friday and St. Andrew’s Agreements, against mandatory power sharing, but pro-‘family values’. The result of this election may decide whether the party has a future.

Bairbre de Brún* (SF)
- deBrún should hold her seat with ease. The only question will be whether or not SF top the poll.

Dianne Dodds (DUP)
- Wife of senior DUP member Nigel Dodds, and former MLA for West Belfast – she lost out in the 2007 Assembly election to supreme SF vote management. Must be strongly favoured to take a seat.

Alban Maginness MLA (SDLP)
- Former Party Chair and current MLA for North Belfast, McGuinness can’t really hope to unseat SF and picking up a seat from a Unionist seems out of the question.

Jim Nicholson* (UUP)
- An MEP since 1989, this is probably the biggest test he’s faced yet as nobody can really judge the impact of Allister as a TUV candidate will be. The surplus nationalist vote is most likely to go here than to the other two main unionist candidates, so that may be enough to see him through.

Ian Parsley (Alliance)
- A Councillor in North Down, Parsley’s best hope for election is mass confusion with his near namesake from Ballymena.

Recent Party performances: Northern Ireland

	2004	1999	1994
DUP	32	28	29
SF	26	17	10
UUP	17	18	24
SDLP	16	28	29
Alliance	-	2	4
Green	1	-	-

Irish Times/TNSmrbipoll released today (usually the most accurate pollster)
Largest sample size I can recall ever for an Irish poll: 2000

Asked about voting if a General Election was held tomorrow:

	15 May	13 Feb	26 Apr	May 2007
	MRBI	MRBI	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	38	32	33	27
Fianna Fáil	21	22	23	42
Labour	20	24	19	10
Sinn Féin	9	9	8	7
Green	3	4	7	5
Ind/Other	9	8	10	9

A new record high for Fine Gael; a new record low for Fianna Fáil.
On these numbers FF support has halved since the General Election in May 07 (41.6%), with Labour and Fine Gael gaining in almost equal measure.


Satisfaction Ratings
The Government: 10-86 (Satisfieds: -4)
Taoiseach Brian Cowen (FF): 18-75 (-6)
Enda Kenny (FG): 33-47 (+3)
Eamon Gilmore (Lab): 51-24 (+7)
John Gormley (GP): 25-50 (-4)
Gerry Adams (SF): 34-38 (+2)

Government appear now to have poll ratings similar to famine, war and pestilence. Probably still marginally ahead of death.
Fianna Fáil voters on the Government: 33-63
Green voters on Government: 93% dissatisfied
Green voters are the only ones who approve of John Gormley's performance.
Despite leading the most popular party, Enda Kenny is still easily within net disapproval territory (-14).
Only Eamon Gilmore has net positive ratings (+27) but seems to have reached the limits of party support, fluctuating in the high teens-low 20s.


Asked about intentions in the Local Elections:

	15 May	26 Apr
	MRBI	RedC
Fine Gael	33	29
Fianna Fáil	20	23
Labour	20	20
Sinn Féin	10	9
Green	3	7
Ind/Other	14	12

The notable difference from the General Election poll figures is that there is a shift from FG to Ind/Other. Other than that differences are negligible.

Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll with regional EU breakdown:

The poll was conducted amongst a representative sample of 500 voters in each of the four European constituencies. Voters were presented with the names and affiliations of each candidate and asked to indicate their preferences.

Dublin

Gay Mitchell (FG): 26%
Proinsias De Rossa (Labour): 21%
Mary Lou McDonald (SF): 14%
Eoin Ryan (FF): 11%

North West

Jim Higgins (FG): 20%
Pat Gallagher (FF): 19%
Marian Harkin (Independent): 18%
Declan Ganley (Libertas): 9%
Joe O’Reilly (FG): 8%
Paschal Mooney (FF): 7%

South

Brian Crowley (FF): 27%
Seán Kelly (FG): 17%
Alan Kelly (Labour): 13%
Kathy Sinnott (Independent): 12%
Toireasa Ferris (SF): 12%
Colm Burke (FG): 10%

East

Mairéad McGuinness (FG): 33%
Liam Aylward (FF): 19%
Nessa Childers (Labour): 17%
John Paul Phelan (FG): 9%
Tomás Sharkey (SF): 7%

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0516/1224246692541.html

Bearing in mind 3 seats - a quota of 25% - Mitchell and De Rossa look, unsurprisingly safe. The last seat is between McDonald and Ryan. Ryan should pick up most of Byrne's transfers, but outside that he'll probably lose to mcDonald on the transfers from Simmons, Higgins and McKenna. De Burca's could go either way. On these numbers, it doesn't look like enough for FF.



Higgins is safe, especially when you note the 8% of his running mate. Nonetheless, FG would expect better. Gallagher looks safe when mooney's 7% is taken into account. This though means a by-election to fill Gallagher's Dáil seat and would no doubt shave the Government majority even closer to the bone.
The last seat looks like Harkin's (I imagine she'll do well from O'Keefe's transfers) but noting that Libertas and SF are big name anti-Lisbon groups, the possibility of strong transfers and 3 weeks for things to develop mean that it can't be called just yet.



Brian Crowley proves himself to be one of FF's few election proof people right now.
Seán Kelly looks set to unseat the FG incumbent (with the help of said incumbent's transfers no doubt).
The last seat looks like the closest to call between all 4 constituencies. There's really no telling which way it'll go.



McGuinness can stop campaigning now it seems.
Aylward looks like he can hold the FF seat.
The last one is probably Labour's - though if FG could manage their vote properly, it is holdable.
Despite FG soaring in the polls, these numbers look like they might lose a seat in this election.

Final part of the TNSmrbi poll....
Lisbon: 52-29-19    (+1:-4:+3)

By Party
Fianna Fáil: 65-22  
Fine Gael: 61-24  
Labour Party: 54-33
Sinn Féin: 29-49
Greens: 60-29

By class:
AB: 67-17
C1: 56-25
DE: 40-38
Farmers: 62-21

In the light of the current economic crisis, is it better to be part of the EU?
79-10-11

Yesterday saw the release of the monthly Sunday Business Post/RedC polls...
(Comparisons are with the TNSmrbi poll on Friday; the last monthly RedC poll and the last actual election in each case)

General Election

	17 May	15 May	26 Apr	2007
	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	34	38	33	27
Fianna Fáil	24	21	23	42
Labour	18	20	19	10
Sinn Féin	7	9	8	7
Green	5	3	7	5
Ind/Other	12	9	10	9

The TNSmrbi numbers on Friday gave the Greens an almighty scare and are speculated to be a prime reason (along with the voter reactions they're facing on the canvass) for the surprise announcement that they want to renegotiate the Programme for Government (that is the agreement reached between FF and the Greens on the policies of the Government after the General Election in May 2007). Some suggest that this move for re-negotiation is part of an exit strategy from Government. Anyway, it won't happen until after the upcoming elections so we'll have to wait and see...


Local Elections

	17 May	15 May	26 Apr	2004
	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	34	33	29	28
Fianna Fáil	22	20	23	32
Labour	16	20	20	11
Sinn Féin	8	10	9	8
Green	4	3	7	4
Ind/Other	16	14	12	17

As usual the country is plastered with election posters for anyone and everyone. A new feature this time though is Fianna Fáil candidates using their posters to hide/disguise that they are in fact FF candidates by minimising their logo or playing around with colours. Apparantly the shame is now too much for some.


European Elections

	17 May	15 May	26 Apr	2004
	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	32	31	32	28
Fianna Fáil	25	24	25	29
Labour	16	14	17	11
Sinn Féin	7	12	8	11
Green	5	2	7	4
Libertas	3	3	2	-
Ind/Other	12	14	10	17

Hopefully a breakdown of the RedC constituency numbers will be available soon (though given the sample size, won't be as useful as Friday's MRBI poll).

Prediction Time:

Dublin South: Easy (and I will be voting, yay!): George Lee in a cantor. Only question whether he will be elected on the first count or not; Shay Brennan will get second on the family name. Alex White will be third; and I will probably be one of those helping him; even though I increasingly dislike the Labour party.

Dublin Central: Much tougher call, possibly a Gregory-Independent Hold? Fianna Fail might even win on transfers... but I'll go with O'Sullivan on Bacik's (and SFs) Transfers. Donaghue to finish second... where will he get the transfers?

Europe:
Dublin: 1FG 1LAB 1SF
North West: 1FF 1FG 1IND (Lol@Libertas)
South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB... but where will Sinnott transfer to is the big question for the third seat, It might be FG so if the second candidate can lean himself ahead of Sinnott by the time she is eliminated (she won't win this time, I don't rate her transfer potential) then possibly a 2nd seat for Fine Gael?
East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

I should note that I have hardly being much attention to these and so is mostly guess work.

Hello again Gully! :)

May as well throw in some predictions.
Let's be daring insane and give a predicted 1st count...

Lee (FG) 43.1%
White (Lab) 23.4%
Brennan (FF) 20.1%
Tracey (SF) 7.1%
Davidson (Grn) 5.1%
O'Mullane (Ind) 0.7%
O'Gorman (Ind) 0.4%
O'Gara (Ind) 0.1%

(MoE 100%)

Lee to win comfortably - very surprising if he comes in <40%; not all that surprising if he tops 50%. I'm guessing he'll be on the lower side of this range though.
White v Brennan for #2 spot. Fairly disappointing for Labour if they can't take second place.



Donoghue (FG) 24.7%
Ahern (FF) 20.4%
Bacik (Lab) 20.1%
O'Sullivan (Gregory-ite) 15.9%
Burke (SF) 15.5%
Geary (Grn) 2.2%
O'Loughlin (CSP) 0.7%
Steenson (WP) 0.4%
Talbot (ICP) 0.3%

(MoE 200%)

In other words, I expect the top 5 candidates to split up the vote pretty well and nobody else to factor. I don't see Ahern winning. One of Bacik, O'Sullivan or Burke v. Donoghue in the end. Donoghue probably only stands a chance here against Burke, and I still wouldn't bet on him winning even against him. 



Largely agree. (Though I'll hold off LOLing at Libertas just yet. Hopefully the results will allay my concerns.)

Irish Times/TNSmrbi poll released today.
Another abnormally large sample of 2000, in what is presumably the last TNSmrbi poll prior to the election.

General Election

	29 May	15 May	17 May	2007
	TNSmrbi	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	36	38	34	27
Labour	23	20	18	10
Fianna Fáil	20	21	24	42
Sinn Féin	8	9	7	7
Green	3	3	5	5
Ind/Other	10	9	12	9

A new record low for FF, just 20% - beaten once again by Labour. FG down a little but still far, far out in front.


Local Elections

	29 May	15 May	17 May	2004
	TNSmrbi	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	32	33	34	28
Labour	20	20	16	11
Fianna Fáil	18	20	22	32
Sinn Féin	8	10	8	8
Green	3	3	4	4
Ind/Other	19	14	16	17

Each of the big 3 are down 2-3pts on their polling on the General Election question, all of it to the benefit of Independents and others, who are at their most high profile and noticeable just before an election, as now. Are FF really only on 18%? We'll see...


Satisfaction Ratings
Government 12-84  (Satisfieds: +2)
Taoiseach Brian Cowen (FF) 21-71  (+3)
Enda Kenny (FG) 31-50  (-2)
Eamon Gilmore (Lab) 49-25  (-2)
John Gormley (Grn) 27-48  (+2)
Gerry Adams (SF) 33-38  (-1)

Satisfaction in the Government increases for the first time since May 2008, when they were at 48%.

We're very likely to see polls on the 4 Euro constituencies in tomorrow's edition (and probably Lisbon numbers as well).

RedC are very liekly to have their final pre-election poll out on Sunday and it wouldn't be altogether surprising if one of the other less frequent pollsters produce something in the coming days as well.

And there is still three years to go till the next general election....

Latest TNS-mrbi poll for The Irish Times by constituency:

Dublin:

Gay Mitchell (FG): 28%
Proinsias De Rossa (Labour): 25%
Mary Lou McDonald (SF): 11%
Eoin Ryan (FF): 9%
Joe Higgins (SP): 9%
Déirdre de Búrca (Greens): 6%
Patricia McKenna (Ind.): 5%
Eibhlin Byrne (FF): 5%
Caroline Simmons (Libertas): 2%

North West:

Pat Gallagher (FF): 20%
Marian Harkin (Ind.): 19%
Jim Higgins (FG): 17%
Joe O’Reilly (FG): 10%
Declan Ganley (Libertas): 9%
Pádraig Mac Lochlainn (SF): 9%

South:

Brian Crowley (FF): 30%
Seán Kelly (FG): 16%
Kathy Sinott (Ind.): 14%
Alan Kelly (Labour): 12%
Toireasa Ferris (SF): 10%
Colm Burke (FG): 10%

East:

Mairead McGuinness (FG): 29%
Nessa Childers (Labour): 21%
Liam Aylward (FF): 20%
John Paul Phelan (FG): 7%
Tomás Sharkey (SF): 7%

HOT !

()

()

How do you pronounce that (the first name. I think I have a pretty good idea how to pronounce "Ferris".)

I think it is pronounced like "Ty-ree-suh" (something like Mother Teresa).

Maybe the Irish amongst us know better ... ;)

I usually say Tuh-ree-zah. But might just be me.

Not hot and also a Shinner.

Mitchell and de Rossa obviously safe.
That last seat though is too close to call on these numbers - Ryan should gain the great majority of Byrne's #2s, but after that I'm not sure what will happen to deBúrca and McKenna's transfers.



Looks rapped up to me, especially when Paschal Mooney's (FF) 7% and Susan O'Keefe's (Lab) 5% are considered.


An unusual question here, where will the expired FF votes go. Crowley has a 5% surplus here, and Ned O'Keefe (FF) has another 4%, these votes could be crucial. Dan Boyle's 3% will also play a part given the tightness of the race here.
Sean Kelly should be fine, he'll soak up transfers from everywhere I'd imagine.
I'd suggest Alan Kelly should just about get there on these figures, but Kathy Sinnott is in with more than a shouting chance.



This constituency looks done as well, an almost certain FG loss to Labour. Despite soaring popularity in the polls this would mean FG come out net losers in the European elections, they'll need good results elsewhere on Friday to save their blushes.

Tomorrow's Sunday Business Post/RedC poll...

General Election

	31 May	29 May	17 May	2007
	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	34	36	34	27
Fianna Fáil	21	20	24	42
Labour	18	23	18	10
Sinn Féin	10	8	7	7
Green	4	3	5	5
Ind/Other	13	10	12	9

Largely consistent with the TNSmrbi poll of the other day, except with a 5% spread on the Labour vote. Guess we'll have to wait and see on that.

They're probably be more details on locals/Europeans tomorrow.

Yes, I believe it's pronounced "Daughter of a convicted gun-runner"....what was that Obama said about lipstick and pigs?

I remember when Alessandra Mussolini looked easy on the eye too...

So, are there any more recent polls?  Has polling for the local, European, and Dail by-elections stopped by now?  (I know those elections are on Friday)  What's the latest buzz?

I note that I didn't get around to putting up the numbers for the Locals and Europeans from the same poll...

Local Elections

	31 May	17 May	29 May	2004
	RedC	RedC	TNSmrbi	Election
Fine Gael	32	34	32	28
Fianna Fáil	20	22	18	32
Labour	17	16	20	11
Sinn Féin	10	8	8	8
Green	4	4	3	4
Ind/Other	17	16	19	17

In 2004, they said that FF hit rock bottom - that only the core vote turned out. If the polling is right though, tomorrow will be a considerably worse day for Fianna Fáil councillors. Mainstream commentators though all suggest that they believe the polling is wrong, and FF will do better than these numbers...we'll have to wait and see on that.
The big winner at Local level seems to be the Labour party. Results akin to the above numbers should greatly strengthen the political depth of the party and give them a much better base to work from in selcting and running candidates in the next General.


European Elections

	31 May	17 May	29 May	2004
	RedC	RedC	TNSmrbi	Election
Fine Gael	34	32	29	28
Fianna Fáil	20	25	25	29
Labour	14	16	16	11
Sinn Féin	9	7	10	11
Green	4	5	2	4
Libertas	4	3	3	-
Ind/Other	15	12	15	17

The consensus seems to be that in Dublin, Mithcell (FG) and deRossa (Lab) are safe; that the final seat is McDonald (SF) v Ryan (FF) and maybe even Higgins (Soc). FF know if they hold onto Ryan's seat, they effectively come out of the Euro's unscathed representing the closest thing they can claim to a victory so they're putting significant efforts into this one.

In East, it's hard to see any result other than McGuinness (FG); Aylward (FF) and Childers (Lab). A Labour gain from FG and a very significant and visible knock against FG. They'll need good results in the Locals and the by-elections to cover this up.

In South, Crowley (FF) and Kelly (FG) are more than likely safe. The final seat seems to be Sinnott (SF) v Kelly (Lab) and maybe even Ferris (SF). Possibly the toughest call of all the Euro elections here. I think Kelly, might just make it.

In North-West, the polling suggests it's Higgins (FG), Gallagher (FF) and Harkin (Ind). But everyone is waiting to see how big a splash Ganley (Libertas) makes and nobody is quite prepared to write him off completely yet.


On the by-elections, in Dublin South everyone is calling it for George Lee (FG) - it's just a matter of how convincing the win will be.
In Dublin Central, by contrast, almost nobody is prepared to call it. Donoghue (FG), Bacik (Lab), O'Sullivan (Gregoryite Ind) and Burke (SF) are all contenders, indeed the notion of Ahern (FF) someohow coming out on top has been mooted by some people as not imposible either. My thinking on this changes by the hour, but at the moment, I think it's O'Sullivan or Bacik to take it. Donoghue to do well, probably even top the poll, but unable to rein in enough transfers to pull away.


No other polling related to the elections has been released, that I'm aware of and none is expected.

At any rate, voting itself has already begun.
As usual, most of the residents of Ireland's islands are voting before the rest of us (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0604/breaking16.htm). This year though, they weren't the first to cast their ballots - the residents at the Central Mental Hospital voted last Friday (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0530/1224247747918.html) and indeed hosted their own Q&A session for the main by-election candidates.


Voting in the North (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0604/breaking17.htm) is also today, but counting won't begin there until Monday.

Corrected (I know Sinnott is also endorsed by Libertas)

For the Dublin South by-election one of the (obscure) independent candidates listed put down his career as Taxi Driver/Horse Breeder. Which I must say is a totally brilliant combo. He got my second preference (he'll need it) just for that alone. My First went to Alex White; not that it matters really.

I put the "Omg He's the Son of the Other Guy" and ex-Anglo Irish Bank employee eighth and last.

:)
I presume that's Frank O'Gorman.

He's got an interesting manifesto per his website (http://frankogorman.ie/).

He was also on Vincent Browne the other week, where it was pretty clear his ambition was actually to be elected in one of the 2 local elections he's simultaneously running in.

Polls are now closed; reports on turnout around the country seem to be respectable.

I understand RTÉ conducted an exit poll, but the results won't be released until 11a.m. tomorrow.

Counting begins for the Locals and the 2 Dáil by-elections tomorrow morning at 9a.m.

Counting in the Europeans won't start until 9p.m. on Sunday >:(

I've rarely been paying this any attention at all, but massive FF. ;D

He isn't my local council area though (I'm in Glencullen not Rathfarnham - actually technically that's South Dublin Country not DL/R). I know nothing about our local government other than more FF/FG councillers = bad (for property/rezoning reasons which is and always has been the biggest local issue *begins anti-suburban/property developers thankgodfortherecession rant*). I voted #1 for the Green Party candidate for that reason, but right now I wouldn't vote for the Greens at any higher level. Labour got #2 and #3 with the picks between #2 and #3 completely random. The Greens are expected to be in the hunt in the end so *shrugs*.

Thankfully Maria Corrigan stopped being our local counciller as to become an OMG SENATOR after 2007.

Already mentioned who I voted for in the Euros in the European Election thread.

The creation and adoption of local development plans and so planning matters are by far and away the most significant responsibility of local councillors, so you seem to be on the money here.

I had a rather sorry looking set of options (http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2009L&cons=314) for the locals.

Looks Tempting... Does the Labour Party even exist in Monaghan?

Barely.
They've run one candidate in the Carrickmacross LEA (http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2009L&cons=310) (he's also running for the Town Council)...and that's it. It is though one more than the total number of Labour candidates in the 2004 Locals.

News from the North...

Turnout: 42.8% (down from 51.72% in 2004)

The count proper hasn't started, obviously, but there was a verification process today (weeding out spoiled votes and such). News for observers is that deBrún (SF) will top the poll (the only thing the DUP seemed to campaign about ::)).

Allister is suggested to have at least done respectably and taken a significant bite into the DUP vote.

Counting underway across the country...

First up - By-election News

Dublin South
27% boxes tallied so far...

Lee (FG) 54%
White (Lab) 21%
Brennan (FF) 17.5%

Full first count expected around 12.30p.m.

If he stays up above 50%, it'll be the first by-election win on a first count since 1984, when one Brian Cowen succeeded to his father's seat.

---

Dublin Central

Around 65% boxes open

Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite) 25%
Paschal Donoghue (FG) 25%
Ivana Bacik (Lab) 18%
Maurice Ahern (FF) 12.6%
Christy Burke (SF) 11.5%
Geary (Grn) 3%
Talbot (Workers) 2%
Steenson (Immigration Control) 2%
O'Loughlin (Christian Solidarity) 0.6%

First count expected around 2p.m.

To me, this looks like O'Sullivan will win this out.

---

News from the RTÉ Exit Poll (traditionally quite accurate)
Sample = 3,334
MoE 1%

Local Elections (Change on 2004 locals)

FG 34% (+6.5)
FF 24% (-8)
Lab 17% (+5.5)
Grn 3% (-1)
SF 9% (+1)
Ind/Other 13%

Looks like FF will do slightly better than the polls indicated; Labour slightly worse.

Little from the European Elections yet, the the news is that that Declan Ganley (Libertas) is apparently doing much better than expected so far. Marian Harkin (Ind) also doing well there. Not a lot else to report yet there.

In East, it's looking very good for McGuinness (FG) and Childers (Lab). Not enough yet to determine between Aylward (FF) and Phelan (FG) for the final seat.
In South, Crowley (FF) and Seán Kelly (FG) look like they're ok, little is being ruled out regarding the final seat.

In Dublin, very early tallies suggest Mitchell (FG) and deRossa (Lab) are safe enough and as expected it's between McDonald (SF), Ryan (FF) and Higgins (Soc) for the final seat.

By-election update...

Dublin Central
80% of the boxes open

O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite) 27%
Donoghue (FG) 22.1%
Bacik (Lab) 17.3%
Burke (SF) 13.4%
Ahern (FF) 12.2%

On these numbers, it's pretty much over. Indeed, I'd suggest that only Bacik could beat O'Sullivan here now (by overtaking Donoghue and taking the lion's share of his votes) but that's a very outside bet.

The Dublin South first count is now not expected until around 3p.m (some boxes seem to have been overlooked there).

Another factoid, Lee could be the first FG candidate to win a by-election on the first count since 1975 - when Enda Kenny succeeded his father in Mayo West.

Dublin Central

98% of boxes in...

O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite) 26.9%
Donoghue (FG) 22.5%
Bacik (Lab) 17.7%
Burke (SF) 13.3%
Ahern (FF) 12.5%

FF have never come worse than 3rd in a by-election before.

RTÉ/Lansdowne European Election Exit Poll
Sample = 3,334
MoE 1.7%

FG 30% (+2.2)
FF 23% (-6.5)
Lab 16% (+5.5)
SF 12% (+0.9)
Libertas 4% (+4)
Socialist 3% (+1.5)
Green 2% (-2.3)
Ind/Other 10

---

Ciaran Cuffe TD (Green-Dún Laoighaire) has suggested that the results in the various elections for the Greens suggest they should be seriously questioning whether they should continue in Government.

It may be part of the Green play for the upcoming renegotiation of the Programme for Government, or maybe he's just stupid enough to think that a General Election would mean anything but absolute disaster for the Greens.

Dublin South
Completed Tally

Lee (FG) 53.4%
White (Lab) 19.7%
Brennan (FF) 18.1%

In the local elections, it's now clear the Greens are getting punished.

In 2004, the party won 18 seats (+10 on 1999). Right now, it's difficult to point to  nearly any of them that they will hold onto.

Rejoice! And LOLZ@ Maurice Ahern.

Dublin South By-Election Result

Count 1

George Lee (FG)	27,768	53.4%	(+26.1% on FG in 2007 General)
Alex White (Lab)	10,294	19.8%	(+9.4%)
Shay Brennan (FF)	9,250	17.8%	(-23.6%)
Elizabeth Davidson (Grn)	1,846	3.5%	(-7.5%)
Shaun Tracey (SF)	1,705	3.3%	(+0.3%)
Ross O'Mullane (Ind)	650	1.2%
Frank O'Gorman (Ind)	351	0.7%
Noel O'Gara (Ind)	172	0.3%

   
Lee elected on the first count.

FG and Labour double their vote on the 2007 General; FF vote more than halves. Green vote collapses also.


New composition of the Dáil:

Fianna Fáil	75
Fine Gael	52	(+1)
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	5
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1

Government (FF, Green, PD + Indies) = 86
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF + Indies) = 78
Government Majority of 8

Have we a complete first count of Dublin Central?

No sign of it yet - should have it shortly.

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	1st Count		Change on 2007
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	7,639	26.9%	(+13.5% compared with Tony Gregory)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	6,439	22.7%	(+13.1%)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	4,926	17.3%	(+4.8%)
Christy Burke (SF)	3,770	13.3%	(+4.1%)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	3,483	12.3%	(-32.2%)
David Geary (Grn)	819	2.9%	(-2.9%)
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	614	2.2%	(+1.5%)
Malachy Steenson (WP)	519	1.8%	(+1.8%)
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	203	0.7%	(-0.04%)

   

O'Loughlin eliminated.
2nd Count shouldn't be far off...

Why wouldn't they eliminate the last four candidates in one go?

Not sure. (I thought it might be about the Immigration Control Platform candidate trying to retain his deposit, but he can't get the necessary quarter of a quota to do that.) I think though that the decision on whether or not to eliminate multiples candidates is at the discretion of the returning officer.

By the by, the RTÉ/Lansdowne Exit poll (http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/exitpoll.pdf), asked voters about Lisbon (Sample: 3,334): 54-28-18

Breakdown by European Party Vote
Fianna Fáil: 65-18-17
Fine Gael: 62-21-17
Labour: 53-30-17
Sinn Féin: 30-50-19
Green: 52-22-26
Libertas: 27-56-16
Ind/Other: 48-33-20

Seeing as how being anti-Lisbon seems to be the only agreed policy of Libertas, I'm not sure what it tells us that 27% of their voters favour it and 16% are unsure.

TV3 report that following these election results, Enda Kenny will be putting forward a motion of no confidence in the Government next week.

Lech Walesa, who supports Libertas, has called for a YES vote to Lisbon. What a joke he is nowadays.

In my local area Glencullen Labour actually outpoled FG by .1%. But due to awful vote management/strong personal vote they will probably end up with only one seat, compared to two with FG and one FF.


Overall for DL/R it's FG 34.1% LAB 26.4% FF 16.7% OTH 14.3% GP 5.9% SF 2.7%. So far 5 elected; 2 FG 2 LAB 1 IND. A Candidate for "People Before Profit" (ie. the Socialist Workers Party) is likely to be elected in Ballybrack - oh the joys! Though that's somewhat surprising to me given that that is the most working class (or rather least middle class) part of DL/R. Two of the Electoral Divisions still to report mind.

The Hard-Left doing very well in North Dublin (In Fingal and the Inner City regions) it must be said.

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	2nd Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	7,711	(+72)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	6,461	(+22)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	4,931	(+5)
Christy Burke (SF)	3,780	(+10)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	3,512	(+29)
David Geary (Grn)	829	(+10)
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	636	(+22)
Malachy Steenson (WP)	528	(+9)
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-	(-203)

   
Steenson eliminated.

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	3rd Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	7,862	(+151)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	6,488	(+27)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	5,008	(+77)
Christy Burke (SF)	3,902	(+122)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	3,526	(+14)
David Geary (Grn)	849	(+20)
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	676	(+40)
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-	(-528)
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   
Talbot eliminated.

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	4th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	8,105	(+243)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	6,578	(+90)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	5,073	(+65)
Christy Burke (SF)	3,990	(+88)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	3,564	(+38)
David Geary (Grn)	893	(+44)
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-	(-676)
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   
Geary eliminated.

What is the quota in Dublin Central?

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	5th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	8,341	(+236)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	6,737	(+159)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	5,338	(+265)
Christy Burke (SF)	4,042	(+52)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	3,621	(+57)
David Geary (Grn)	-	(-893)
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   
Ahern eliminated.

Sorry, should of put that in earlier.
It's 14,207.

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	6th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	9,352	(+1,011)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	7,412	(+675)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	5,774	(+436)
Christy Burke (SF)	4,420	(+378)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	-	(-3,621)
David Geary (Grn)	-
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   
Burke eliminated

Transfers from the Greenie to the Failer have been pretty bad for coalition partners... Are the remaining Greenie voters opposed to the coalition?

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	7th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	11,062	(+1,710)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	7,880	(+468)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	6,537	(+763)
Christy Burke (SF)	-	(-4,420)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	-
David Geary (Grn)	-
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   
Bacik eliminated

The polling evidence has suggested that for some time now.
These elections should help underline that.

ElectionsIreland reports only 4 seats in the local election results. Is that really all that's been declared?

No. The latest is as below.
ElectionsIreland is an excellent site, but I'm afraid they're take a while to get all the local stuff up.

FG 69
Lab 41
FF 30
SF 12
Grn 0
Oth 26

705 remaining

http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/local/

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	8th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	13,739	(+2,677)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	10,198	(+2,318)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	-	(-6,537)
Christy Burke (SF)	-
Maurice Ahern (FF)	-
David Geary (Grn)	-
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   

O'Sullivan elected without reaching the quota.


New composition of the Dáil:

Fianna Fáil	75
Fine Gael	52
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	6	(+1)
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1

Government (FF, Green, PD + Indies) = 86
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF + Indies) = 79
Government Majority of 7

I'm not surprised given how they'd vote in a general ;) [change on 2007]

FG 37 (+10)
FF 21 (-21)
LAB 21  (+10)
SF 9 (+2)
Gre 3  (-2)
Ind/Others 10 (+1)

What's the likelihood of a motion of no confidence passing given a government majority of 7?

Negligible - the only semi-plausible scenario is if the Greens revolt, but that seems incredibly unlikely, given that they're today watching nearly all their council seats disappear.

By Irish standards, 7 is not necessarily all that small of a majority.
It could though be shaved further before the year is out. If Pat Gallagher (FF-Donegal SW) is elected for FF in the European Elections in North-West (counting due to begin properly tomorrow morning), it would cause a by-election which in the circumstances may be unwinable and so 7 becomes 5.

It's also thought that Mary Harney (PD-Dublin MW) wants to be Ireland's next European Commissioner - the only realistic shot she has of extending her political career beyond the lifetime of this Dáil. That position comes up for filling in the Autumn. It would though leave a certain by-election defeat for the Government and so potentially 5 would become 3, and then we're at the races...


Kenny doesn't expect to win the motion on Tuesday. He's just using the drubbing to further rattle the Greens and the Government supporting Independents.

Wouldn't the quota be considered at this point to be 11,969 (50% + 1 (or technically + 1/2) of the non-exausted, non-spoiled ballots in the 8th count).  If these same results by party occured in Kerry South in the next general election, with one candidate running for each party (substitute "Ind Gregoryite" for "Ind Healy-Rea-ite" - and yes I know they're not the same, with Healy-Rea supporting the Government while Tony Gregory never did in this Dáil at least) with Ceann Comhairle John O'Donoghue being automatically returned (so the constituency would be a functional 2-seater as is likely to happen), would Healy-Rea or his prodigy be declared elected as a result of the 6th count (or as a result of the 3rd count if the bottom-four candidates were excluded in one go, as a result of whichever count the Fianna Fáil candidate's vote was redistributed) when he had more than a third of the non-exausted ballots in that count but less than a third of the total 1st count vote?  It probably wouldn't affect the count in this case, as his/her surplus if the quota was deemed to be 8,987 (one vote more than one third of the non-exhausted ballots in the 6th (or 3rd) count) would not be enough to push the Shinner over the Labourite candidate even if it all went to the Shinner so his/her surplus would probably remain undistributed until after the Sinn Féin 6th count vote was redistributed, by which time the Healy-Rae-ite's vote would be greater than one third of the 1st count vote and the next count would have his or her surplus distributed either way.  I imagine that surplus would be 2,568 (or 2,569 if he or she was to be brought down to exactly a third of the 7th count vote rather than a third + 1), rather than only 1,591 or 1,591 1/3 (the 1st count quota in this case being 9,471).

Have the PDs not finished their dissolution?  I read somewhere in May that it was expected to be finished later in that month.  Also, which 3 Indies (besides the two ex-PDs if they are indeed ex-PDs and are Independents as I've read they both will be) are considered to support the Government?  Jackie Healy Rae, Michael Lowry and Jim McDaid?  That's what ElectionsIreland.org has in their Changes during 30th Dáil (http://electionsireland.org/results/general/30thdail/changes.cfm) page (which will probably be updated soon to reflect yesterday's by-elections), and that may be where you're getting your data from (no complaints there, as I've had e-mail correspondence with the person whose site that is and he seems very knowledgeble).

The quota is always regarded as fixed.
In a by-election, with only one seat up for grabs, however, the whole idea of a quota is pretty irrelevant, as it is, in effect, an IRV election.



See above; the quota is regarded as fixed from the 1st count (unless I suppose a recount found more votes or changed the number of spoiled ballots or somesuch). Persons would only be deemed elected where they surpass the declared quota or where they cannot be overtaken.

Hasn't happened yet, as far as I'm aware. The formal winding-up has been delayed a couple of times now, IIRC. (Not that it is of any practical difference whether it is wound up or not.)



Yes. Healy-Rae and Lowry made a deal with the Government after the General and have continued to vote with the Government since.

McDaid is more of a grey-area. He abstained on a vote to withdraw financial support from provision of the HPV vaccine to teenage girls, last November and so was expelled from the parliamentary party. His votes though continue to be cast in support of the Government.

Thanks for the explanation, Jas.  I can also see how some might think it worth noting that more voters either ranked Donoghue over O'Sullivan or didn't rank either of them than ranked O'Sullivan over Donoghue, making Sullivan arguably less than a majority winner even in the final count.  I would calculate the percentages in each count to add up to 100%, making the final count result a 57.4% to 42.6% win for O'Sullivan.

Thanks also for the clarification of the Progressive Democrats' status and which Independent TDs support the Government.

no problem :)

Looks like quite a few count centres are calling it a night, quite a few others look like they're not stopping yet.
I'm going to adopt the strategy of the former.

Before I do, the latest from the County and City Council Elections...
409 of 883 seats declared

Fine Gael	158	(Won 293 seats in 2004)
Fianna Fáil	88	(302)
Labour	84	(101)
Sinn Féin	25	(54)
Greens	1	(18)
Ind/Other	53	(115)

YOU FORGOT TO LIST THE NO. OF EXHAUSTED VOTES AT EACH COUNT! >:( >:( >:(

For the record, they were

24 out of 203
77 out of 528
108 out of 676
124 out of 893
1121 out of 3621
1479 out of 4420
1542 out of 6537

That such a lot of FF and SF voters exhaust their ballots is unsurprising... bit surprised at the high number of Labour voters to have no preference between Donoghue and O'Sullivan, though.

553 of 883 seats declared

Fine Gael	204	(Won 293 seats in 2004)
Fianna Fáil	118	(302)
Labour	108	(101)
Sinn Féin	34	(54)
Greens	2	(18)
Ind/Other	87	(115)

Greens wiped out in Dublin - home to 5 of their 6 TDs.
Of the 2 seats they've won so far, Brian Meeney held his seat in Ennis West and a rare gain for Mark Dearey in Dundalk South.
It looks like Malcolm Noonan will hold on in Kilkenny as well, but I'm hard pressed to find too many more who would be favoured to do so at this stage.

About to lose my net access until tomorrow morning.

Doesn't look like any of the 4 Euro constituencies will be sorted today anyhow.
No real firm tallies available from anywhere, but it does look like FF are going to lose out in Dublin to either McDonald (SF) or Higgins (Soc).
Looks like FG will lose their 2nd seat in East to Lab. FF to just about take the 3rd.
In North-West, nobody outside Libertas are now predicting Ganley to take the last seat, though it might be an uncomfortably good performance for him.
In South, nobody seems to be prepared to call the final seat between FG, Lab, SF or Sinnott. That might still be unclear by this time tomorrow.

So there seems to be a chance that FG might lose its second seat in one European Parliamentary constituency (East) but at the same time gain a second seat in another constituency (South)?

FF lost the seat in Jas's local government constituency (Castleblayney in Mohaghan, which lost a seat to Monaghan (Town) in a local government redistribution since the last election (did the boundaries change at all Jas?) due to poor vote ballancing.  Five candidates (2 FF, 2 FG, and 1 SF, all incumbents except for one FF candidates (the one didn't win a seat)), ran for four seats.  The vote by party was 40.5% FF, 38.4% FG, and 21.1% SF.  But the two FG candidates received 21.2% and 17.2% of the vote respectively, while the FF incumbent topped the poll with 26.8%, leaving his runningmate with only 13.7%.  The quota must have been 1 vote or fraction thereof over 20% of the vote.  Count details aren't available but the second FG candidate was elected on the third count, so after two of the three candidates (the top FF and FG candidates unless some of the poll-toppers surplusses were allowed to transfer to the already elected Shinner) elected on the first count had their surpluses transferred.  The SF surplus might have narrowed the final margin.  You can view the results for Castleblayney here (http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/local/l2302.html).  Don't ask me why I didn't mention any of the candidates' names.

City and County Councils:

813 of 883 seats declared

Fine Gael	315	(Won 293 seats in 2004)
Fianna Fáil	194	(302)
Labour	125	(101)
Sinn Féin	50	(54)
Greens	3	(18)
Ind/Other	126	(115)

Pat The Cope Gallagher (that's actually listed on the RTÉ results page) seems likely to get elected in North West[/url], which would create a new vacancy in the Dail that was a Fianna Fáil seat, for which I've read here there would likely eventually be a by-election that Fianna Fáil would be hard-pressed to win if their fortunes hadn't improved significantly.  Fine Gael under a quota in North West at 23.8% of the first count vote but their leading candidate Jim Higgins is in third with 16.2% with Libertas's Declan Ganley in fourth with 14.3% and Sinn Féin's Pádraig MacLochlainn in fifth with 9.2%, and there's a 5.8% vote for Labour's Susan O'Keeffe that together with FG "sweeper" Joe O'Reilly's 7.6% should see Higgins over the quota.  Still probably a dissapointing result for Fine Gael.

Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell has clinched a seat in Dublin (http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/european/dublin.html) (having over a quarter of the non-exhausted vote) after three counts but hasn't been declared elected as he isn't over a quota yet.

This analysis takes too long so I'll let others carry on from here (even if some of the "play-by-play" is after all seats have been awarded) and just ponder in some my spare time who might still be in contention.

A good site to get results is http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/ .

Euro Election Count Updates

Dublin (Count Complete)
Seats: 3 (-1 on 2004)
Turnout: 50.8%
Quota: 101,658
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4	Count 5	Count 6	Count 7
Gay Mitchell (FG)	96,715	99,098	100,810	104,413	101,658	101,658	101,658
Proinsias de Rossa (Lab)	83,471	85,217	87,274	94,306	95,636	103,225	103,225
Joe Higgins (Socialist)	50,510	52,457	53,038	55,116	55,351	60,165	82,366
Eoin Ryan (FF)	55,346	56,317	66,205	68,517	69,122	71,530	76,956
Mary Lou McDonald (SF)	47,928	50,097	50,980	52,447	52,529	55,429
Patricia McKenna (Ind)	17,521	21,523	22,380	25,213	25,636
Déirdre de Búrca (Green)	19,086	20,226	21,991
Eibhlin Byrne (FF)	18,956	19,448
Caroline Simons (Libertas)	13,514
Emmanuel Sweeney (Ind)	3,583

             
Mitchell and deRossa clearly safe after Count 1.
Close between Higgins, Ryan and McDonald on the first count, but it looked fairly clear there wasn't enough FF votes to get Ryan there. Higgins was always likely to be more transfer friendly than McDonald and so it proved.

The only significant delay to the Dublin count was when Deirdre de Burca sought a re-check on her elimination, officially because she was just short of getting to the rewuired votes to claim back a portion of her election expenses; really because she couldn't take falling behind ex-Green Patricia McKenna.

Caroline Simons (Libertas) is widely believe to have ran the most expensive campaign in the country and will no be delighted with 9th place. ;)

The loss of Ryan caps a terrible election weekend for FF; FG will now be the biggest Irish party in Europe and the biggest in local government. A lot of effort was put into trying to hold this seat. Compared to elsewhere the -4.9% swing wasn't terrible, but their starting position in Dublin wasn't great to begin with.

The loss of McDonald is a blow to Sinn Féin as it leaves their most visible and well-known Southern politician unemployed. They have been unusual among parties this election cycle, in that they have neither collapsed like the Government parties or made substantial gains like all the other opposition parties.

Great to see Joe Higgins have a platform again. He was a very effective Government critic prior to his General Election defeat in 2007. The Socialist Party has also made gains in the Locals - so the signs indicate we could well see their return to the Dáil at the next election.

Libertas really have fouled up all over the place, I cannot find a single result in UK or Ireland which justifies the cost or hype surrounding their campaign.

East (Count Ongoing)
Seats: 3 
Turnout: 56.8%
Total Valid Poll: 429,249     
Quota: 107,313 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2
Mairéad McGuinness (FG)	110,336	107,313
Nessa Childers (Lab)	78,338	78,914
Liam Aylward (FF)	74,666	74,866
John Paul Phelan (FG)	61,851	63,590
Thomas Byrne (FF)	31,112	21,264
Kathleen Funchion (SF)	26,567	26,647
Tomás Sharkey (SF)	20,932	21,034
Raymond O'Malley (Libertas)	18,557	18,728
Paddy Garvey (Ind)	2,934	2,945
Jim Tallon (Ind)	2,412	2,425
Micheál Grealy (Ind)	1,514	1,523

The count in East was suspended before midnight last night. McGuinness, as expected, topped the poll, but without a significant surplus for her running-mate to benefit and so it look's like FG are going to lose a seat here losing 0.4% of their vote share from 2004.

Labour's share is up 5.2% and Childers will take Labour's first seat in this constituency since 1979.

FF only saw a swing of 0.4% against them here. Aylward will be untouchable when Byrne's transfers come through.

Not a bad result for SF here. Up 2.4% and both Funchion and Sharkey now have stronger profiles going into the next General Election.

Raymond O'Malley was the least well known of the Libertas candidates when this campaign started and he remains so today - back to obscurity for him.

The most straightforward of the 4 counts, the result is fairly certain; final results should be in early-ish this evening.

North-West (Count Ongoing)
Seats: 3
Turnout: 63.4%     
Total Valid Poll: 495,257     
Quota: 123,815 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1
Marian Harkin (Ind)	84,813
Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF)	82,643
Jim Higgins (FG)	80,093
Declan Ganley (Libertas)	70,638
Pádraig MacLochlainn (SF)	45,515
Paschal Mooney (FF)	42,985
Joe O'Reilly (FG)	37,564
Susan O'Keefe (Lab)	28,658
Michael McNamara (Ind)	12,744
Fiachra Ó Luain (Ind)	3,510
John Francis Higgins (Ind)	3,030
Noel McCullagh (Ind)	1,940
Thomas King (Ind)	1,124

       
The count was suspended for 2 hours last night while Declan Ganley complained that he believes thousands of his votes have been accidentally assigned elsewhere. The evidence suggests this is nonsense, and that Ganley's theatrics were designed to allow him to spin that he's still in the contest today and/or that he will be unfairly denied a seat in the end.

At any rate, at Ganley's request a re-check is being conducted this morning to see whether Ganley's assertions stand up.

Beyond that, I'm very happy to see my vote when to the plurality winning candidate. :) Harkin put in a stellar performance to top the poll and so has a very strong chance of taking a seat.

FF and FG are both just about certain to take seats as their secondary candidates both did well. Indeed, both parties did much as well as last time down 1.4% and 1.9% respectively, despite the Libertas resurgence.

The biggest swing against a party was for SF, -5.6%. Unless MacLochlainn's votes transfer very very heavily to Ganley, which is very unlikely, then this is all over.

I expect Susan O'Keefe's votes to transfer well to Harkin - and if Gallagher still hasn't reached the surplus, a significant share of MacLochlainn's votes are likely to go there for geographic reasons.

Ganley said that if he lost his seat he wouldn't campiang on Lisbon II. His prediction of leading 100 Libertas MEPs from across Europe is in tatters this morning, with I think, only Phillippe deVilliers in France elected on the Libertas ticket so far. Is this the ned of Ganley? Fingers crossed.

South (Count Ongoing)
Seats: 3
Turnout: 59.2%     
Total Valid Poll: 498,127       
Quota: 124,532 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4
Brian Crowley (FF)	118,258	119,625	122,404	132,410
Seán Kelly (FG)	92,579	94,430	96,153	97,482
Alan Kelly (Lab)	64,152	66,121	69,683	70,309
Toiréasa Ferris (SF)	64,671	65,861	67,304	68,296
Kathy Sinnott (Ind)	58,485	62,057	64,295	65,518
Colm Burke (FG)	53,721	54,617	57,190	57,884
Ned O'Keefe (FF)	16,596	16,896	17,124
Dan Boyle (Green)	15,499	16,250
Alexander Stafford (Ind)	11,692
Maurice Sexton (Ind)	2,474

   
Despite FF being -14% on 2004, Crowley is unstoppable and was always the safest FF Euro candidate. Expect him to re-appear to seek the FF nomination for the Presidency in 2011.

For FG, Seán Kelly's celebrity canditature has helped the party climb 4.8% but will unseat his running-mate Colm Burke, whose late much hyped chances disappeared with the first count.

Outside of Libertas, it looks like the Euro election's biggest spender is probably Alan Kelly. He has though got some return, with the party's vote up 8.8% and placing him with a genuine shot of claiming the party's first seat in this constituency since 1979.

Toiréasa Ferris did well for SF, but can't hope to pick up the necessary transfers. the distribution of her votes will decide this race.

Kathy Sinnott's vote is doen 6.7% on 2004, but is still figthing for the last seat here - and what's more, I think she is to be favoured on slipping past Alan Kelly on the final count. (:()

Yes, there was significant changes to this LEA, which if anything should have hurt O'Brien (the leading FF candidate more than the rest). He was helped by the fact that his running-mate is just a terrible candidate. Nonetheless, you're quite right, FF should have managed their vote much better here and could have taken a seond seat.

Count by count details are available from the County Council website: http://www.monaghan.ie/websitev2/Elections2009/LocalElectionResults.html

The last time a Government party won a by-election was 1982, that's a string of 20 defeats.
When you then take into account that between the 2 by-elections, FF saw a swing against them in the order of 26.6% - their chances of winning a by-election anywhere right now are negligable.

To me, the decision to run Gallagher, who was always likely to take a seat in this election, amounted to giving up a Dáil seat and a potentially serious miscalculation by FF HQ which could come back to bite them later.

Northern Ireland
Seats: 3
Turnout: 43%
Total Valid Poll: 484,572
Quota: 121,144
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1
Bairbre deBrún (SF)	126,184
Dianne Dodds (DUP)	88,346
Jim Nicholson (UUP)	82,893
Alban Maginness (SDLP)	78,489
Jim Allister (TUV)	66,197
Ian Parsley (Alliance)	26,699
Stephen Agnew (Green)	15,764

Counting began this morning in the North, because one doesn't count votes on the Sabbath there.

deBrún topped the poll, as expected (by everyone except the DUP who spent the entire campaign shouting about how they were the only one's who could stop this happening - as if it really matters).

Agnew and Parsley eliminated on Count 1. (Turns out there isn't a massive dsylexic DUP vote out there.)

Some had suggested the SDLP had a chance at sneaking in between the Unionists to take the second, but clearly that's not on given these numbers.

It'll be deBrún, Dodds and Nicholson.

Hehe - I have just added something similar about Norn Iron in the British thread.... :P

Even the most insane of transfers won't see Allister elected.... Or else....

It should be fairly straight-forward from here.

Nicholson and Maginness should do best from the Alliance/Green transfers.

Then Allister should be eliminated. I suspect the majority going to the UUP and the remainder to the DUP. Nicholson probably therefore to pass Dodds to get the 2nd seat; with Dodds comfortably ahead of Maginness.

From another forum (quoting another forum, I think maybe Slugger's blog)

I'd tend to agree...
The significance of the numbers though it shows quite clearly just how strong the anti-Peace Agreement strand within Unionism. With these numbers, the TUV could well have a serious future in NI politics. :(

"de Brun surplus:

Mick Fealty:  480 to TUV; 2914 DUP; 16325 SDLP; UCU 11392 Allister eliminated... Dodds still well short of the quota.. "

Surely that's the Alliance/Green transfers - deBrún's surplus is only 5,040.
Anyway, the SDLP is doing somewhat better than I would've expected if this is the case, but it's nowhere near enough.

Yeah, was gonna come back and amend - seems my Twitter feed wasn't as detailed as it should be !

City and County Councils:

862 of 883 seats declared

Fine Gael	331	(Won 293 seats in 2004)
Fianna Fáil	212	(302)
Labour	130	(101)
Sinn Féin	52	(54)
Greens	3	(18)
Ind/Other	134	(115)

Those Others include -
People Before Profit Alliance: 5
Socialist Party: 4
Workers Party: 2
South Kerry Independent Alliance: 1

Michael Lowry (Ind-Tipperary N), a overnment supporting Independent, has had a good local elections as 4 of his groupies have gotten elected to Tipp N County Council. Lowry claimed last night that he was thus bigger nationally than the Greens.

Jackie-Healy Rae (Ind-Kerry S), the other Government supporting Independent, also had a good day. His two sons retained their seats on Kerry County Council - both topping the poll in their respective areas.

Michael Fahy, formerly FF, and who faces retrial following the collapse of his fraud conviction, topped the poll in Loughrea to get a seat on Galway County Council.

Finally, a bit of research tells me that it was an excellent day for the ex-PDs. As the party is in the process of diss, obviously there were no official PD candidates anywhere but by my count at least 14 ex-PD councillors were elected this weekend, 9 as Independents, 4 as FG candidates and 1 as an FF candidate.
[Donal Lyons (Ind) Galway; Terry O'Flaherty (Ind) Galway; Declan McDonnell (Ind) Galway; Thomas Welby (Ind) Galway; Walter Lacey (Ind) Carlow; Brigid Teefy (Ind) Limerick; Eddie Fitzpatrick (Ind) Offaly; Paul Mitchell (Ind) Laois; Jim Cuddy (Ind) Galway; Michael Maher (FG) Galway; Rose Brennan (FG) Limerick; Mary Mitchell O'Connor (FG) Dún Laoighaire; Cáit Kean (FG) South Dublin; Mags Murray (FF) Fingal]

Jim Nicholson has been elected second. Now it's down to his surplus (originally from Jim Allister) to decide between the DUP and SDLP.

There are reports of some transfers going SDLP - if they pull this off it will be Lazarus with a quintuple bypass.

Above quote from another forum

Northern Ireland
Seats: 3
Turnout: 43%
Total Valid Poll: 484,572
Quota: 121,144
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1
Bairbre deBrún (SF)	126,184	(Elected with a surplus of 5,040)
Dianne Dodds (DUP)	88,346
Jim Nicholson (UUP)	82,893
Alban Maginness (SDLP)	78,489
Jim Allister (TUV)	66,197
Ian Parsley (Alliance)	26,699	Eliminated
Stephen Agnew (Green)	15,764	Eliminated

	Count 2
Bairbre deBrún (SF)	126,184
Alban Maginness (SDLP)	94,814	(+16,325)
Jim Nicholson (UUP)	94,285	(+11,392)
Dianne Dodds (DUP)	91,260	(+2,914)
Jim Allister (TUV)	70,481	(+4,284)	Eliminated
Ian Parsley (Alliance)	-	(-26,699)
Stephen Agnew (Green)	-	(-15,764)
Non-Transferable	7,548

Both DUP and UUP will storm past the SDLP on Allister's transfers to take seats 2 and 3.

Update from East (Count Ongoing)
Seats: 3 
Turnout: 56.8%
Total Valid Poll: 429,249     
Quota: 107,313 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4	Count 5	Count 6
Mairéad McGuinness (FG)	110,336	107,313	107,313	107,313	107,313	107,313
Liam Aylward (FF)	74,666	74,866	75,124	76,295	77,044	99,236
Nessa Childers (Lab)	78,338	78,914	80,145	84,198	86,654	89,355
John Paul Phelan (FG)	61,851	63,590	64,169	67,972	69,608	70,846
Kathleen Funchion (SF)	26,567	26,647	27,132	29,305	43,085	44,422
Thomas Byrne (FF)	31,112	31,264	31,480	32,276	33,383
Tomás Sharkey (SF)	20,932	21,034	21,461	23,954
Raymond O'Malley (Libertas)	18,557	18,728	19,396
Paddy Garvey (Ind)	2,934	2,945
Jim Tallon (Ind)	2,412	2,425
Micheál Grealy (Ind)	1,514	1,523

What is very likely to be the final count is underway here - the distribution of Funchion's votes.
The Childers-Phelan gap should widen a bit.
At any rate, as expected, the numbers confirm it's an FG loss to Labour in East.

Update from South (Count Ongoing)
Seats: 3
Turnout: 59.2%     
Total Valid Poll: 498,127       
Quota: 124,532 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4	Count 5	Count 6
Brian Crowley (FF)	118,258	119,625	122,404	132,410	124,532	124,532
Seán Kelly (FG)	92,579	94,430	96,153	97,482	98,394	134,712
Alan Kelly (Lab)	64,152	66,121	69,683	70,309	70,991	78,651
Toiréasa Ferris (SF)	64,671	65,861	67,304	68,296	69,295	73,389
Kathy Sinnott (Ind)	58,485	62,057	64,295	65,518	66,920	71,349
Colm Burke (FG)	53,721	54,617	57,190	57,884	58,654
Ned O'Keefe (FF)	16,596	16,896	17,124
Dan Boyle (Green)	15,499	16,250
Alexander Stafford (Ind)	11,692
Maurice Sexton (Ind)	2,474

        
Interesting count now, Kelly's 10,000 surplus between Alan Kelly, Ferris and Sinnott. Looks like Labour are now favoured to take this seat, but still too close to call.

No developments from North-West, Mr Ganley's requested re-check has consumed all day so far.

City and County Councils
Still on 862 of 883 seats declared

Having taken a look at the remaining seats, it looks like it'll end up something like as follows:

Fine Gael	339	(+46 seats)
Fianna Fáil	219	(-83)
Labour	132	(+31)
Sinn Féin	55	(+1)
Greens	3	(-15)
Ind/Other	135	(+20)

Looking at Sean Kelly's surplus, it's probably likely that less will transfer to a Cork candidate and so I'd be inclined to think that Ferris will remain ahead of Sinnott on the next count. Should she do so, it's much more likely that Sinnott's full eliminated vote will put Ferris over the top.

So much for that!!! Ferris eliminated and now has 74,480 to transfer. Kelly ahead of Sinnott by 8,753 heading into the Shinner's disribution. Pat Magner on RTE Radio has a point about SF voters thinking of  Sinnott as too right wing for their tastes and labour more likely to pick up preferences than other parties do. Still, Sinnott may pick up on basis of the anti-Lisbon vote. Hard to know but will be interesting to see.

Sinnott is an insane. So I'm glad she lost.

Pretty close.

City and County Councils
All 883 seats declared (perhaps with recounts not completed (http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/tracker.html) in Belturbet in Cavan and Portlaoise in Laois, but the fact that those LEAs weren't mentioned in the update on all 883 seats having been filled may indicate that those recounts are over)

Fine Gael	340	(+47 seats)
Fianna Fáil	218	(-84)
Labour	132	(+31)
Sinn Féin	54	(no change)
Greens	3	(-15)
Ind/Other	136	(+21)

Source: RTÉ (http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/local/)

European Elections in the Republic of Ireland:


Candidates elected by constituency (listed by constituency in order of election, or vote in the count in which the candidate was elected if two candidates were declared elected as a result of the same count):

Dublin: Gay Mitchell* (FG), Proinsias De Rossa* (Lab), Joe Higgins (Socialist) (Socialist and new EU nations :) gain from FF and SF)
East: Mairead McGuinness* (FG), Liam Aylward* (FF), Nessa Childers (Lab) (Lab gain from FG)
North West: only outstanding constituency in the Republic of Ireland, with no candidates elected yet; see below)
South: Brian Cowley* (FF), Seán Kelly (FG), Allan Kelly (Lab) (Lab gain from Ind (Kathy Sinnott))
Republic of Ireland: 3 FG (-1 from 2004 in constituencies with the count complete), 3 Lab (+2) 2 FF (-1), 1 Socialist (+1), 3 seats outstanding (Ireland lost one seat in the European Parliament)

* denotes incumbent

North West, through Count 5, with no candidates elected (and thus no surplus transfers):


Jim Higgins* (FG) 113,810 votes (24.26% of non-exhausted ballots)
Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF) 112,622 (24.01%)
Marian Harkin* (Ind) 112,210 (23.92%)
Declan Ganley (Libertas) 75,705 (16.14%)
Pádraig MacLochlainn (SF) 54,737 (11.67%)

Exclude MacLochlainn (SF)

The next (6th) count will probably be the last one, with Higgins (FG), Gallagher (FF) and Harkin (Ind) being elected (that will definitely be the end result).  Ganley (Libertas) has conceded (http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/stories/2009/0608/euroelection.html) and has said he will "bow out of public life."

East (Count Complete)
Seats: 3 
Turnout: 56.8%
Total Valid Poll: 429,249     
Quota: 107,313 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4	Count 5	Count 6	Count 7
Mairéad McGuinness (FG)	110,336	107,313	107,313	107,313	107,313	107,313	107,313
Liam Aylward (FF)	74,666	74,866	75,124	76,295	77,044	99,236	103,605
Nessa Childers (Lab)	78,338	78,914	80,145	84,198	86,654	89,355	102,220
John Paul Phelan (FG)	61,851	63,590	64,169	67,972	69,608	70,846	76,960
Kathleen Funchion (SF)	26,567	26,647	27,132	29,305	43,085	44,422
Thomas Byrne (FF)	31,112	31,264	31,480	32,276	33,383
Tomás Sharkey (SF)	20,932	21,034	21,461	23,954
Raymond O'Malley (Libertas)	18,557	18,728	19,396
Paddy Garvey (Ind)	2,934	2,945
Jim Tallon (Ind)	2,412	2,425
Micheál Grealy (Ind)	1,514	1,523

LAB gain from FG
In the end, Phelan more than 25,000 votes off holding the seat.

---

South (Count Complete)
Seats: 3
Turnout: 59.2%     
Total Valid Poll: 498,127       
Quota: 124,532 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4	Count 5	Count 6	Count 7	Count 8
Brian Crowley (FF)	118,258	119,625	122,404	132,410	124,532	124,532	124,532	124,532
Seán Kelly (FG)	92,579	94,430	96,153	97,482	98,394	134,712	124,532	124,532
Alan Kelly (Lab)	64,152	66,121	69,683	70,309	70,991	78,651	83,921	105,597
Kathy Sinnott (Ind)	58,485	62,057	64,295	65,518	66,920	71,349	75,168	95,134
Toiréasa Ferris (SF)	64,671	65,861	67,304	68,296	69,295	73,389	74,480
Colm Burke (FG)	53,721	54,617	57,190	57,884	58,654
Ned O'Keefe (FF)	16,596	16,896	17,124
Dan Boyle (Green)	15,499	16,250
Alexander Stafford (Ind)	11,692
Maurice Sexton (Ind)	2,474

                     
LAB gain from IND.
Sinnott in the end more than 10,000 votes shy.

^^^


Ah, but the transfered Seán Kelly surplus was entirely from Colm Burke's (Cork-based) votes - so (Cork-based) Alan Kelly was always likely to do respectably from that.

North-West (Count Complete)
Seats: 3
Turnout: 63.4%     
Total Valid Poll: 495,257     
Quota: 123,815 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4	Count 5	Count 6
Marian Harkin (Ind)	84,813	89,938	99,561	103,942	112,210	121,672
Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF)	82,643	84,680	85,842	87,714	112,622	120,930
Jim Higgins (FG)	80,093	82,457	86,597	111,133	113,810	120,185
Declan Ganley (Libertas)	67,638	69,925	72,475	73,994	75,705	84,277
Pádraig MacLochlainn (SF)	45,515	47,413	50,225	52,384	54,737
Paschal Mooney (FF)	42,985	44,719	45,687	47,702
Joe O'Reilly (FG)	37,564	38,854	42,350
Susan O'Keefe (Lab)	28,708	31,176
Michael McNamara (Ind)	12,744
Fiachra Ó Luain (Ind)	6,510
John Francis Higgins (Ind)	3,030
Noel McCullagh (Ind)	1,940
Thomas King (Ind)	1,124

       
No Party Change

As reported yesterday, Mr Ganley held up the count claiming he had eye-witnesses to suggest that thousands of his votes had been misallocated to Gallagher and/or Harkin. Turns out there had been a misallocation, following a re-check, Ganley lost 3,000 votes which actually belonged to Independent Fiachra Ó Luain. :)

In the end, Ganley was 36,000 votes away from a seat and has declared his political career to be at an end. :)

---

Northern Ireland
Seats: 3
Turnout: 43%
Total Valid Poll: 484,572
Quota: 121,144
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3
Bairbre deBrún (SF)	126,184	126,184	126,184
Jim Nicholson (UUP)	82,893	94,285	132,227
Dianne Dodds (DUP)	88,346	91,260	115,722
Alban Maginness (SDLP)	78,489	94,814	97,428
Jim Allister (TUV)	66,197	70,481
Ian Parsley (Alliance)	26,699
Stephen Agnew (Green)	15,764

DUP gain from TUV
SDLP more than 18,000 off Dodds (though taking the remaining surpluses into account were probably more than 24,000 away from election).

Allister made clear his intent to fight on with the TUV noting in his post-count speech, "there's a lot of Assembly P45s in 70,000 votes". He may be right.

Taking a look at polling accuracy...

European Elections

	5 June	5 June	31 May	29 May	2004
	Election	Exit	RedC	TNSmrbi	Election
Fine Gael	29.1	30	34	29	27.8
Fianna Fáil	24.1	23	20	25	29.5
Labour	13.9	16	14	16	10.6
Sinn Féin	11.2	12	9	10	11.1
Green	1.9	2	4	2	4.3
Libertas	5.5	4	4	3	-
Ind/Other	14.3	13	15	15	16.8

This includes the exit poll conducted for RTÉ by Lansdowne, the final RedC poll for the Sunday Business Post, and the final TNSmrbi poll for The Irish Times.

The TNS poll was within 1% of FG, FF, the Greens and Independents.
Furthest out on Libertas (-2.5%), Labour (+2.1%) and SF (-1.2%).
Mean error: 1.09%

The Lansdowne exit poll was within 1% of FG, SF and the Greens.
Furthest out on Labour (+2.1%), Libertas (-1.5%), Indies (-1.3%) and FF (-1.1%).
Mean error: 1.11%

RedC were within 1% of Labour and Independents.
Furthest out on FG (+4.9%), FF (-4.1%), SF (-2.2%), the Greens (-2.1%) and Libertas (-1.5%)
Outside the margin of error for the two biggest parties :-[
Mean error: 2.23%

And the Locals...

Local Elections

	5 June	5 June	31 May	29 May	2004
	Election	Exit	RedC	TNSmrbi	Election
Fine Gael	32.2	34	32	32	28
Fianna Fáil	25.4	24	20	18	32
Labour	14.7	17	17	20	11
Sinn Féin	7.4	9	10	8	8
Green	2.3	3	4	3	4
Ind/Other	18	14	17	19	17

TNS were within 1% of FG, SF, Greens and Others.
And were furthest out on FF (-7.4%) and Lab (+5.3%) - way outside the MoE :-[
Mean error: 2.53%

RedC were within 1% of FG and Indies.
Furthest from FF (-5.4%), SF (-2.6%), Lab (+2.3%) and Greens (+1.7%)
Mean error: 2.2%

The Lansdowne exit pollwas within 1% of the Greens.
Furthest out from Indies (-4%), Lab (+2.3%), FG (+1.8%), SF (+1.6%) and FF (-1.4%).
Mean error: 1.97%

Generally a much worse performance polling the locals. All 3 polls registered results outside the margin of error.

Philippe de Villiers is now, AFAIK, the only Libertas MEP. He can effectively take over this short-lived joke.

With the election of Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF) in North-West, that means he has to vacate his Dáil seat for Donegal South-West. I think that the vacancy takes effect immediately on declaration, but I should get a definitive answer on that following the vote of no confidence against the Government which comes later today.

Anyway, the new composition of the Dáil:

Fianna Fáil	74	(-1)
Fine Gael	52
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	6
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	1	(+1: Donegal SW)

Government (FF, Greens, PDs, Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry, Jim McDaid) = 85
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF, Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan, Joe Behan) = 79
Government Majority of 6

Following the Local Elections, we now have only 3 Councils with single party majorities - none of which are FF controlled. With these elections, FG have become the plurality party across most of the country and garnered majorities on Cavan, Limerick and Mayo County Councils. 10 Councils have shifted from having FF as the largest party to FG.

FF held their plurality status on 4 Councils; Labour the same, though strenghtening their positions on each. SF gained plurality status in Monaghan because FG lost a seat to an Independent.

The list below shows which Councils have which largest parties.
(# of seats of party/# seats on Council)

Fine Gael
Majority
Cavan (13/25) was tied with FF
Limerick County (15/28) was tied with FF
Mayo (17/31) was FG plurality

Plurality
Carlow (10/21) was FF plurality
Clare (12/32) was FF plurality
Cork City (8/31) was FF plurality
Cork County (22/48) Hold
Dún Laoighaire-Rathdown (11/28) Hold
Galway County (13/30) was tied with FF
Kerry (10/27) was FF plurality
Kildare (9/25) was FF plurality
Kilkenny (12/26) Hold
Laois (12/25) was FF plurality
Leitrim (10/22) was FF plurality
Limerick City (8/17) Hold
Longford (10/21) lost FG majority
Louth (8/26) was FF plurality
Meath (11/29) was FF plurality
Roscommon (10/26) Hold
Sligo (12/25) was tied with FF
South Tipperary (12/26) was FF plurality
Waterford City (4/15) Hold
Waterford County (11/23) Hold
Wexford (10/21) Hold
Wicklow (9/24) Hold

Fianna Fáil
Plurality
Donegal (10/29) was FF majority
Offaly (9/21) Hold
North Tipperary (6/21) Hold
Westmeath (9/23) Hold

Labour
Plurality
Dublin City (19/52) Hold
Fingal (9/24) Hold
Galway City (5/15) Hold
South Dublin (9/26) Hold

Sinn Féin
Plurality
Monaghan (7/20) was tied with FG

First post-election defection!

Sinn Féin's Christy Burke, their by-election candidate in Dublin Central, who was elected to Dublin City Council has become an Independent. He's apparantly unhappy at having had to run a 'watered down' campaign.

(Thus, the new make-up of Dublin City Council becomes: 19-12-6-6-9)

- RTÉ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0609/burkec.html)

I tried to record the Euro coverage on RTE but it didn't quite work out somehow (probably because my grandparents wanted to watch something else at the same time), so can I ask if Donegal South West will be covered by RTE and if so, how are Irish by-elections conducted and does the thread title mean a 2009 Irish general election?

I wouldn't expect there to be any coverage of the by-election outside standard news coverage, unless it is scheduled on the same day as some other significant vote.

I would suggest for example, that it is quite possible that the by-election could be timed to coincide with the re-run of the Lisbon referendum this October - something that will very probably garner significant coverage.

As to the by-election itself, much like in Britain it will come about around a month after a writ for the by-election is moved and approved by the Dáil. Traditionally, the party which lost the seat reserves the right to time when it wants to hold the election. FF won't be rushing to hold this by-election (they stalled for 11 months on the Dublin Sotuh by-election) as although Donegal SW is a very FF friendly area, there's really just about nowhere they can expect to win a by-election these days.

The vote itself will be conducted per standard elections, except with only one seat so is basically the IRV system which applies.


No. The thread was made to cover all elections in Ireland this year. The only guaranteed significant public vote left to be held in 2009 is the re-run of the Lisbon referendum which will likley be this October.

That said, despite that the current Dáil could last until 2012, the possibility of a 2009 General Election cannot be ruled out.

Congrats Jas, you live in the most Shinner county in the country. :P

The places Labour have as pluralities are really interesting, why can't they do it during general election time?

However if one thing this election proved apart from Cowen & Co's already well known unpopularity is that other known fact - Labour can't become the second biggest party in the country and their results from any where that isn't an urban (by Irish standards) area show this. Assuming they run candidates, they didn't in Roscommon or (I think) in Cavan and hardly at all in places like Longford, Mayo, Leitrim... Though they did win 2 Donegal County Council seats, which surprised me.

Nah, I'm from and vote in the most Shinner county of the country!
I live in George Lee-land now!


Labour ran Liam Hogan in the Cavan LEA (http://www.cavancoco.ie/cavanweb/publish/domain/cavancoco/file/News/Local%20elections/Cavan_LEA-Count7.pdf). Came 8th in the 7 seater, 23 votes off 7th (with 10 undistributed FG transfers remaining at the end). (Des Cullen of Labour was elected to Cavan Town Council (http://www.cavancoco.ie/cavanweb/publish/domain/cavancoco/file/News/Local%20elections/Cavan_Town_Council-First_Count.pdf).)

You're right though that Labour lose potential simply by not fielding candidates. For most of Connacht-Ulster, Labour candidates are a very rare breed.
Though Labour didn't run in Roscommon, believe it or not, People Befroe Profit did - coming 8th and last in the Roscommon LEA.



Frank McBrearty Jr, of Morris Tribunal note, was one. He had name recognition and a cause, independent of the party.

The other, Martin Farren is formerly of FG and took the 7th and final seat in Inishowen, just about making it.

Seamus Rodgers, the usual Labour Dáil candidate in Donegal SW, did ok in Glenties as well. And at least the party ran candidates in all of the LEAs in Donegal. Can't win if you're not in and all that.

Donegal Results (http://www.donegalcoco.ie/council/localelections2009/electionresults2009.htm)

Tyrone?

Check and mate, sir! Kudos. ;)

And that makes two of us...

You don't happen to live beside Ballaly LUAS stop do you? (I ask mostly because I really dislike some of the developments there and you said you live in Dundrum so...)


Yeah I noticed that Roscommon PBP candidate in The Irish Times - WTH aptly describes my impression.

Anyway you miss my point, it's not that Labour not running candidates is the problem look at the candidates they did run in those areas - it is hardly impressive it is. Rather my snipe was at the idea that Labour could plausibly finish second in an election; national figures may show one thing but it means nothing as Labour have practically no organization in the Midlands (except Westmeath) and Connacht other than Galway City and Sligo Town. For Labour to even come close to FF if they (FF) got 25% of 1st Prefs they would need to challenge and take some seats in places like Roscommon-S.Leitrim, Cavan-Monaghan, Mayo, Laois-Offaly and similiar constituencies. But there is no 'grassroots' and what left-wing vote there is such areas tend to go to Sinn Fein, which makes me wonder whether that is a left-wing vote at all.


Okay but those are 'name' candidates for the most part. Though it does seem that Labour do have organization in parts of Donegal but it is far from taking a seat there (though the upcoming by-election will be interesting; but SF have a greater chance than Labour). I guess my general points is that that these election results aren't as bad for FF as they seem.

Jas, I think I have asked this before but will ask again, who exactly votes for Sinn Fein in Monaghan? Any group in particular or is it widespread?

I moved to Goatstown about 2 months ago - Kilmacud is my new stop. I've not yet seen done much exploring in and around the Ballaly stop. What should be on the lookout for?



Yeah, fair points.

Overtaking FF would be extremely difficult - mostly because even if meltdown, á la the sorts of numbers at these elections, it's difficult to find any constituency that they won't take a seat. Tipp N, Kerry N, Dublin W, Dublin MW, Dublin SE, Roscommon-Leitrim S would be the sorts of places to look at...but I wouldn't be willing to wager on any. Thus FF can take 43 seats without any great difficulty.

By the same token, as you say, there are places Labour simply can't compete and the potential for the party to take 2 seats anywhere is very limited. In 1992, they got 33 elected (http://electionsireland.org/party.cfm?election=1992&party=LB&order=ConstituencyName&elected=yes) on 19.3% (and Democratic Left got another 4 elected (http://electionsireland.org/party.cfm?election=1992&party=DL&order=ConstituencyName&elected=yes) on 2.4%). Had they been a bit luckier, there were a few more that could have been picked up. Even at around 15% today, I'd expect Labour to win seats in every 4 and 5 seater in Leinster and Munster (exc. Clare and Laois-Offaly). At 20-25%, the breakthrough in gains in 3 seaters could be very significant, as well as possible 2nd seats in particular 5 seaters.



Well, these numbers probably mean a loss of 30+ seats...which would be the biggest seat loss of any Irish party in a general election since the 20s, or arguably since 1918.

And one must also bear in mind that the Government still have at least one more austerity budget to pass before an election is likely. We'll have to wait and see whether the numbers can fall further.

The by-election should be interesting. Fianna Fáil's 4th best constituency in 2007 (50.5%) and home of the Tánaiste (but who could well be fired/demoted in the next re-shuffle). Also Sinn Féin's best constituency (21.2% in 2007) despite not taking a seat.

Usefully, the constituency is I think simply an amalgamation of the Donegal, Glenties and Stranorlar LEAs.

Adding together the vote totals for the parties gets you:

Fianna Fáil	12,202
Fine Gael	10,466
Sinn Féin	5,558
Labour	3,476
Independent	9,872

By my reckoning, FF's edge is in fact even greater than that shown as at least 4,042 of those Independent votes are for former FF members (similarly, 2,864 could be considered Ind FG votes; and 1,501 Ind SF votes).

I doubt FF could win the by-election, but given their underlying strength they can't be ruled out. The key factor could be whether FG or SF would be willing to transfer to one another. I'll take a look at the Locals in more detail later to see if there's anything interesting there.



Well, it's a mixture.
There is a hard-core republican vote which has existed long before thebreakthrough in 1997. Ó Caoláin was getting a consistent 7-9% in the constituency since 1982 (http://electionsireland.org/candidate.cfm?id=3576). The basis of this vote is much like a lot of the basis of the rural Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, family tradition - and it was almost entirely a Monaghan vote, concentrated most in the north of the county.

Today, with the SF message broadened from simply one of republicanism, to one encompassing social justice, public services, etc. They have also broadened their appeal, mostly to the urban working class - estates like Mullaghmatt in Monaghan Town and Drumillard in Castleblayney would be strong SF areas. This isn't dissimilar to the growth of the party in Louth and Dublin.

In 1997, when Ó Caoláin was first elected it was an almost entirely Monaghan vote. By 2002, his vote within the county fell (principly on the back of the strong Independent Hospital candidate), but was masked by a sharp rise in Cavan SF votes.