Talk Elections

http://www.njelections.org/2008_municipality_results_presidential.html

If you lived in an awesome county like Bergen, you would have had precinct results available since November :P

Anyway, I'm going to get started with some swing maps by municipality. Bergen first because I say so.

:)

Just checked out Mercer, where I am, and it's pretty clear the Obama totals for Pennington and Princeton (borough, not township) are switched.

Not enough time to do a swing map for Bergen today, but I compiled the results to do one in the future. Here's a results map by municipality to tide you over. The scale is 50-55%, 55-60, 60-65, 65-70, 70-75, 75+.

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That must have been a huge swing in Woodcliff Lake, the lonely northernmost Obama town. And at least one tiny town (Rockleigh, population about 300) swung against Obama; Kerry won it, but so did McCain. The biggest regional swing to Obama appears to have been in the Northern Valley (the area NNE of the intensely Democratic towns).

That swing might be a consequence of increasing Korean migration into those towns. Except that Koreans, as evidenced by Palisades Park, apparently don't vote. Voter turnout was abysmal there, by far the lowest county-wide.

In any case, the white voters in those areas are the sort I would expect to swing to Obama anyway. More Irish and Anglo wealthy than the Italian and Eastern European wealthy you find in the northwestern reaches of the county, and living slightly closer together and with cohesive downtowns. Greater cohesion of community might also be an explanation for Ridgewood, the northern end of that Obama spike in the west, as Ridgewood is the only town in that area with a downtown area (and an extremely nice one, rivaled in the county only by my own Englewood).

Starting to put together the swing map now, maybe I will finish it today. Anyway, Woodcliff Lake actually wasn't a very big swing at all, it's just anomalously Democratic/not intensely Republican. No idea why.

Edit: Finished the numbers. Biggest swing to Obama was 6.73% in Ridgefield Park, followed closely by 6.39% in Bogota. Biggest swing against Obama was -15.64% in Teterboro, but bear in mind that this town had 22 voters in 2004 and 25 in 2008; not the most useful data. The biggest swing against Obama other than Teterboro was -2.32% in Wallington, followed closely by -2.29% in Carlstadt.

In total, 7 towns swung against Obama, including Teterboro. Of those, three were by less than 1%; one, tiny Rockleigh, was by 1.54%; the other three are above. Surprisingly, there is no particular geographic pattern to the towns which swung against Obama, although there is an easy explanation for all of them (except Rockleigh and Teterboro, where my explanation is tiny population size).

Where is Teterboruugh?

Wikipedia's map of Teterboro's location (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/39/Bergen_County_New_Jersey_Incorporated_and_Unincorporated_areas_Teterboro_Highlighted.svg)

About 95% of the town is covered by Teterboro Airport (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teterboro_Airport), the primary airport for private and corporate flights from the New York City area.

Anyway, I'm still puzzling about Woodcliff Lake. Very wealthy town, MHI of $123,022 at the 2000 Census. Very white, 93%, with the largest minority Asian at only 4.5%, less than 1% black and only 2.5% Hispanic. No specific data, but no substantial Jewish community that I'm aware of. Overall, the demographics don't seem much different from its neighbors, although it is actually somewhat wealthier than Park Ridge (to its north) and Hillsdale (to its south).

Slight Republican registration edge, but registration means little in Bergen County, where over 60% of voters are Undeclared.

It's also home of the North American headquarters of BMW, apparently. The things Wikipedia teaches you...

Anyway, here's the swing map. My at-a-glance analysis was totally wrong. The strongest Obama swing was in the semi-rural/exurban area in the far northwest of the county (as opposed to the area around Woodcliff Lake/Westwood, which is somewhat more developed and swung much less strongly).

The most notable characteristic of Mahwah (the big town in the far northwest) and its neighbors is that much of the land is still forest and undeveloped, although development continues apace in those areas. Elsewhere in the county, forests are few except in parks. But the strongest swing was centered around Ridgewood, which is the most heavily developed area in that part of the county.

The scale is highly exaggerated, however; it's only 1% per shade (lightest is a <1% swing). Teterboro stands out like a sore thumb, so I should have just let Lewis wait for this map.

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The towns which swung against Obama:

Rockleigh: 300 residents, statistical noise happens. Far northeast.
Teterboro: 18 residents officially in 2000 (but 25 votes), statistical noise happens. Lower center.
North Arlington: Heavily Italian, mostly white flight from Newark. Southern edge.
Fair Lawn: Heavily Russian Jewish, although not so many Orthodox as in Englewood and Teaneck. West-center.
Old Tappan: Don't have much explanation here, but it is a fairly white-ethnic town. North-center, west of Rockleigh.
Carlstadt: Heavily Italian. The eastern of the connected pair of McCain-swinging towns.
Wallington: Heavily Italian. The western of the connected pair of McCain-swinging towns.

It's also commemorated in a Bruce Springsteen song...

Well they closed down the auto plant in Mahwah late last month... (first line of "Johnny 99")

And there's a publisher's of Catholic religious literature... Paulist Press.

It was also on an SNL list of the towns with the strangest-sounding names in the US maybe twenty years ago. Along with three other Bergen County towns: Teaneck, Moonachie and Ho-Ho-Kus.

Anyway, I will try to get to Hudson County this afternoon, and maybe Passaic County, too, since both have very few municipalities. (Unfortunately, Passaic County I already know ranges from >90% D in Paterson to probably at least >60% R in Ringwood. So I'll have to return to a 10% scale.)

Hudson County results. Not the most exciting image. I think Secaucus (northern light red) voted for Bush in 2004, but otherwise the map is not much changed. Scale is 50-60-70-80.

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60's the two western towns, right? What's the far western town, 70 or 80? (And what is it like?

Turns out Secaucus did not vote for Bush, but it was closer last time. Biggest swing to Obama was 8.81% in Union City, followed by 8.08% in West New York. Heavily Hispanic both, and the second- and third-most densely populated municipalities in the country. (Guttenberg, also in Hudson, is #1.) No municipality swung against Obama, but the smallest swing to him was in Staten Island Bayonne, 1.39%, followed by 2.71% in Secaucus. Scale is the same as the Bergen County swing map, 1% per shade (starting with 1-2% for Bayonne and reaching >7% for Union City, Weehawken and West New York).

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The far western town is East Newark. Should tell you all you need to know. Although it isn't heavily black, it's fairly Hispanic, about half-Hispanic, half-non-Hispanic white (but small population-wise, only a few thousand people). It's geographically small for arbitrary reasons, only covering a few blocks. 77.09% for Obama.

The other two towns around it are Harrison and Kearny (the big one), both are in the 60s. Both are also mostly white with substantial Hispanic minorities. Harrison has a substantial Asian population, too, mostly Indian IIRC. Working-class communities both, although there are some wealthy areas in Kearny. Kearny was also about 61% while Harrison was 69%, so they don't really vote similarly.

Helpful map for identifying the towns (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Hudson_County,_NJ_municipalities_labeled.png/424px-Hudson_County,_NJ_municipalities_labeled.png)

It would be interesting to find the most populated or most densely populated municipality in New Jersey that McCain carried. These appear to have the most registered voters:

Toms River   Ocean   62909
Brick   Ocean   50742
Middletown   Monmouth   48174
Lakewood   Ocean   39640
Wayne   Passaic   36386

Anyone know anything about these places, esp. Lakewood which went 2-1 for McCain.

That all of them are traditionally Republican areas?

Why does the NE have so many little municipalities? It seems really excessive.  In my county of nearly 1,000,000 people, we have 1 anchor city, 5 suburban towns, and 1 rural town.

Boroughitis was most severe in Bergen County. So Memphis will be less disapproving when we get to the ridiculous designs in Ocean County, etc.

Generally speaking, I support relatively small municipalities for reasons I've given before, and I think the size of municipalities out west and down south (and the idea of independent county land, for that matter) causes far more problems than it solves. On the other hand, I do agree with some of the arguments against the excesses of boroughitis, and I would like to establish a new qualification that municipalities must have a coherent commercial core as well as a substantial residential area. This would leave about 30 of Bergen County's 70 municipalities qualifying, and the other 40 would be merged into them.

But the point about population density must be well-taken. Suburban Bergen County, NJ probably has a much higher population density than the city of Memphis. (Actually, just looked it up, and it does: 3,778 people per sq. mi. in Bergen, only 2,327 in Memphis.)

Anyway, just to keep this updated, I'm busy for today and tomorrow but will try to get Passaic and Essex Counties done on Friday. Maybe Sussex, too, if I have time.

Linus got that on the first page :)

Wayne has a fast-growing Russian Jewish population. I don't know how observant. Lakewood's Jewish community is Hasidic, so votes as a bloc.

Middletown is notorious as the N.J. town with the largest number of deaths on 9/11.

no worries, man ;)

Passaic County. The scale is 50-60-70-80-90. 80 is unused, however; Paterson is >90% Obama. Haledon is >60%; Passaic and Prospect Park are >70%. Clifton and West Paterson are >50%. (West Paterson just held a referendum to change its name to Woodland Park and is now Woodland Park, but wasn't at the time of the election.) The others should be unambiguous. Map quality is a bit lower because I couldn't find a blank map, but this style has the bonus of labels.

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You can see the extreme polarization and population skew of the completely illogical Passaic County very well. The county voted over 60% for Obama; more than one-third of his countywide vote was in Paterson alone. Pompton Lakes and northwestward should be merged into Sussex County to make a more reasonable county.

Not so much silk left in the Silk City, but a lot of minorities. Paterson is majority Hispanic, although the black population is also substantial.

Passaic County swings. Note Totowa, bastion of enlightened racism. Comes from being so close to Paterson, I suppose. And being Italian, that always helps. (Sorry, but the correlation in North Jersey is intense.)

Anyway, the scale is skewed for this one to get everything in. It's <1%; 1-2%; 2-3%; 3-5%; 5-8%; 8-11%; >11%. The biggest swing to Obama was 11.49% in Prospect Park. The biggest (and only) swing against was -1.11% in Totowa.

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No comments on the endless excitement of Passaic County? It's way too late for me to be doing Essex, my apologies. Tomorrow, perhaps.

It's, but there simply isn't anything I can think of saying about it.

But seriously, how the hell did they come up with a county looking like this, it looks like a gerrymandered district.

I don't know why they came up with that boundary, but it emerged fully formed when the county was created in 1837.

http://www.familyhistory101.com/maps/nj_cf.html

Does anyone know how to transform SVGs into PNGs? I just found a great SVG image of all of NJ's municipalities, but vector graphics are a pain to edit.

Otherwise, I can't seem to find any usable maps of Essex County. Or any counties except for Bergen, Hudson, Passaic, Morris and Mercer, for that matter.

Try this. http://www.fileformat.info/convert/image/svg2raster.htm

Thanks :)

Of course, this will slow things down a lot as I do the whole state. And go back and add the counties I already did.

Just started on Essex County. I knew the result for East Orange was going to be extreme, but 24,718 to 408? (That's over 98% Obama, for those keeping score at home, in a city of about 70,000 people.) Irvington wasn't much closer, either.

I think I'm just going to go through and do the 2008 results, then maybe go back and do a swing map when I have the chance. Essex County results are now done. Also, a small typo in the state data has Essex Fells labeled as "Essex Falls"; beware.

This is what I have so far, using the standard Atlas colors and scale:

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(Sorry for the resizing; I will post it to the Gallery when I'm finished.)

I think it's just gray.

Great map, btw.

Sussex County's done. I decided to go with pink for a tie. Obama won no municipalities in Sussex County, although he did get the aforementioned tie in Andover Borough. Walpack had the amusing result of 14 McCain to 3 Obama, making it the most McCain town so far. (Fairfield had been the most McCain town previously, at just over 70% McCain.) East Orange will probably retain the title of most Obama for the rest of the state, although there is a tiny town in Camden County that's almost 100% black, IIRC, so that one might win out.

For those inclined to be amused by such things, Harmony, Hope, Independence and Liberty, all in Warren County, all voted for McCain.

I'm now done with Morris and Union and will soon be done with Warren. I'll post an update then.

Update:

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I've gotten a lot of them done today. Ocean County's shore towns are incredibly annoying. Also, voting patterns on the shore in Monmouth County defy logic.

An update. Willingboro (the >90% Obama town in Burlington County) has a very interesting demographic history. It's a Levittown, but it's now two-thirds black.

Anyway, as you can tell from the map, Obama won every town in Mercer and Hudson Counties. McCain won every town in no counties, although Obama won no towns in Sussex County (they tied in Andover). There are unlikely to be any more county sweeps, although Cumberland has a very outside chance of being an Obama sweep.

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Monmouth is interesting. Oh. Here I wanted to ask and/or find out what's behind that pattern.

Actually, I figured it out after looking up the towns. Asbury Park I knew was heavily black; that's the most Democratic town. Asbury Park is also a major gay resort town, but I think being two-thirds black has a greater influence on its voting patterns.

Neptune, nearby, is also fairly black; that's the next-most Democratic. But after that I was confused.

Apparently, the other Democratic towns have many fewer minorities, but are much less wealthy than their neighbors. Compare, for example, Neptune City and Interlaken, both very white, but Interlaken's income rate is about double that of Neptune City. Interlaken is strongly Republican while Neptune City is Democratic. (Yes, Neptune and Neptune City are different places.) I was previously acting on the assumption that all of the white shore towns were wealthy to one degree or another.

Anyway, another update. I'll probably finish this tonight. The two towns which voted for McCain in Camden County are hilarious (although Pine Valley, at least, was very predictable).

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Here we go. I had to reduce the size a bit to make it fit in the Gallery, but it's still 2000x1080 pixels. Go to the Gallery (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=1061) to see it full-sized.

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How did Wildwood vote? My family used to vacation there a long time ago.

Wildwood: 55.1% Obama
West Wildwood: 53.8% McCain
North Wildwood: 59.4% McCain
Wildwood Crest: 59.9% McCain

Wildwood is the Democratic town on the eastern shore of Cape May County.

Beautiful map.

Was there a swing in Milltown, Spotswood, and Helmetta, the three blue spots in Middlesex? They are all old white working class towns with no new development.

Swing of about 3% each to Obama.

Great work!

By the way, for those wondering about Montclair, the >80% Obama town in Essex County that's majority white, here's why:

43.1% Nonreligious
35.3% Catholic
9.6% Jewish
9.3% Other Christian, including Protestants of all sorts
2.7% Muslim

It helps that Montclair is 32% black, too, although it's otherwise it's mostly white (3% Asian, 5% Hispanic). The town is also wealthy (MHI $74,894, not ridiculously high but well above average).

Similar applies to South Orange (MHI $83,611, 30% black, >70% Obama) and Maplewood (MHI $79637, 33% black, >70% Obama).

The other heavily Obama towns in Essex County are overwhelmingly black and generally poor (Orange, East Orange, Irvington, Newark itself). Irvington was over 98% Obama and the most strongly for Obama in the state, narrowly edging out Lawnside down in Camden County (which began as an escaped slave colony). Lawnside is, IIRC, the most heavily black community outside of the South.

How is Montclair 32% black and <9% Protestant?

Possibly ARDA figures. Or they're all from Maryland originally.

What ethnicities are the Montclair Whites?

Montclair is also a college town to some extent, home to Montclair State University. It tends to attract the type of commuter to NYC who likes living in the kind of place with more theater, art galleries, etc. than your typical Jersey suburb.

Montclair is THE town for New York City residents who decide to move out and raise a family.  It's gone from reasonably Republican to incredibly Democratic in a relatively short time.