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Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Tender Branson on January 22, 2009, 01:55:36 pm



Title: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 22, 2009, 01:55:36 pm
3 states already released (600 adults, polls conducted Jan. 20/21):

Alabama:

60% Approve
24% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=61adfc41-d836-464f-8186-f5a8bcb76249

California:

77% Approve
15% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=030afd67-3556-4a63-8e9a-442cb1e2b7f0

Iowa:

68% Approve
22% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ecb45028-93b8-4bc9-8e18-ef45914bd040

Rasmussen shows the following result today (nationally of course, 3-day tracker):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 22, 2009, 02:02:09 pm
How refreshing.

States that were likely polled as well and will be released soon:

Kansas
Kentucky
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
New Mexico
New York
Ohio
Oregon
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 22, 2009, 02:03:12 pm
Update:

Kansas

62% Approve
24% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d87c6dde-e886-458a-a13e-0fbe918d548f


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Alcon on January 22, 2009, 02:08:49 pm
Not pushing those leaners are we


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 22, 2009, 02:16:31 pm
Not pushing those leaners are we

Gallup notes today that many people who took sides during the Transition have moved into "Undecided"-mode in past cycles. Maybe we witness the same here.

Rasmussen's national tracking for example showed 98% of those polled having an opinion about Obama until a few days ago. Today it's just 93% ...


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Eraserhead on January 22, 2009, 02:16:50 pm
Not pushing those leaners are we

The real Alabama numbers are probably something like 62%/38%. Heh.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Holmes on January 22, 2009, 02:40:55 pm
No Indiana numbers? I am sad.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 22, 2009, 02:46:58 pm
No Indiana numbers? I am sad.

The 15 states above are polled almost every month for Presidential, Senatorial and Gubernatorial Approval Ratings, but some states like Indiana, Pennsylvania etc. were only polled for the General Election ...


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: bgwah on January 22, 2009, 02:53:51 pm
7% disapproval among Hispanics in California

Interesting.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Lief 🐋 on January 22, 2009, 03:11:09 pm
There's probably a pretty significant Bradley Effect going on in Alabama. :P


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Holmes on January 22, 2009, 03:23:14 pm
Kentucky(:)) is out.

Approve: 62%
Disapprove: 25%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9c74442f-6013-401f-a949-7801bbecca36

Obama only received 69% of the Democrat vote in Kentucky, I wonder what it would've looked like with 83% instead.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 22, 2009, 04:58:09 pm
So after two days on the job...


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Rob on January 22, 2009, 05:11:48 pm
So after two days on the job...

After two days on the job, 25 percent of Kentuckians already disapprove. Honeymoon over?


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 22, 2009, 05:17:03 pm
So after two days on the job...

After two days on the job, 25 percent of Kentuckians already disapprove. Honeymoon over?

No, I'd say the honeymoon is over because the press is already giving him a hard time over something silly (not letting enough reporters/cameras in on that second swearing in).  :P


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Holmes on January 22, 2009, 05:50:33 pm
Massachusetts

Approve: 78%
Disapprove: 11%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=48501a4c-9bd7-480a-b19f-9102044921ed

Minnesota

Approve: 64%
Disapprove: 21%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c18d27f-7462-448c-88bf-939da8b31076

Uhh, about Minnesota, I'm not saying the actual results look out of place, but the numbers Obama got from the 18 - 34 age group kinda do...


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Lief 🐋 on January 22, 2009, 07:11:50 pm
SUSA has a ridiculously gigantic Republican bias in Minnesota for some reason.

I'm glad to hear that even states like Kentucky and Alabama support our President (and thus do not hate America or wish ill on our soldiers fighting overseas).


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 22, 2009, 07:39:19 pm
Interesting numbers.
I didn't know he has accomplished that much in less than a week. People should wait a bit before automatically loving him. If I had to guess, because he won't be able to make all of his promises, in one year, he will be around 55-60%.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Democratic Hawk on January 22, 2009, 09:23:52 pm

Rasmussen shows the following result today (nationally of course, 3-day tracker):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Rasmussen has released polls for Texas and Tennessee:

Texas

62% approve (41% strongly) / 35% disapprove (19% strongly)

Tennessee

60% approve (39% strongly) / 35% disapprove (21% strongly)

 Link  (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/combined_states/hopes_for_obama_high_in_mccain_country)

Dave


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Smid on January 22, 2009, 09:47:14 pm
What was the question they were asking? Perhaps "Do you approve of Obama swearing the oath?" I don't think that's about the only thing on which to judge him one way or the other at the moment...


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Alcon on January 22, 2009, 10:30:11 pm
What was the question they were asking? Perhaps "Do you approve of Obama swearing the oath?" I don't think that's about the only thing on which to judge him one way or the other at the moment...

Well, cabinet appointments and actions over the first two days, however few of them are.

Cabinet appointments is 90% what I'm going on, currently.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Lief 🐋 on January 22, 2009, 11:25:32 pm
Of the two days Obama has been president so far, I really could not approve more. I was very worried that he'd start triangulating and backtracking right out of the gate; so far, it seems like he's sticking to his promises, and then some.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Dodger Blue on January 23, 2009, 12:27:24 am
So far so good.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 23, 2009, 01:01:48 am

Rasmussen shows the following result today (nationally of course, 3-day tracker):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Rasmussen has released polls for Texas and Tennessee:

Texas

62% approve (41% strongly) / 35% disapprove (19% strongly)

Tennessee

60% approve (39% strongly) / 35% disapprove (21% strongly)

 Link  (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/combined_states/hopes_for_obama_high_in_mccain_country)

Dave

It should be noted that the TX and TN polls were taken Jan. 14, when Obama had a 65-33 rating nationally ...

SUSA has a ridiculously gigantic Republican bias in Minnesota for some reason.

Very True ...


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 23, 2009, 01:07:17 am
The rest of the states that were released by SUSA:

Missouri: 65% Approve, 21% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=72913ec2-fb62-4950-ae14-9245ddae368b

New Mexico: 65% Approve, 22% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a6bfa544-a441-421d-966c-6e0e45ef34d0

New York: 78% Approve, 11% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3522e847-a0a9-4b4c-b115-8e8679b68b2e

Oregon: 68% Approve, 18% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=66a5dc08-d9a2-4b34-b49a-12418ff87e3c

Virginia: 62% Approve, 23% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4ab3b8db-1579-46ff-93f5-48290a120ea1

Washington: 69% Approve, 17% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=90c0da33-6856-4e0a-946f-438fe35bf976

Wisconsin: 70% Approve, 18% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=37e8eafa-5bd0-42c8-aee2-3802b511b4ef


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: The love that set me free on January 23, 2009, 01:16:04 am
The Minnesota numbers look fine to me (the subsamples don't but they're always way off due to the extreme MoE.) Obama's at about the max approval ANYONE can have in Minnesota due to polarization. Minnesota has so many hardcore left-wingers and hardcore right-wingers that the ceiling for approval for anyone is relatively low.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on January 23, 2009, 09:16:29 pm
Of the two days Obama has been president so far, I really could not approve more. I was very worried that he'd start triangulating and backtracking right out of the gate; so far, it seems like he's sticking to his promises, and then some.

I couldn't agree more.  Closing Guantanamo and all secret prisons was an excellent first move.  What needs to be done now is prosecute those who were responsible for the atrocities that took place there.
Making healthcare reform a priority is another thing I approve of.
 


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: The Duke on January 24, 2009, 05:07:54 am
The One.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2009, 01:48:53 pm
According to Gallup, Obama starts with a 68-12 approval rating (Jan. 21-23).

That's better than Clinton (58-20) and Bush (57-25) and comparable with Eisenhower (68-7), Kennedy (72-6) and Carter (66-8).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113962/Obama-Starts-Job-Approval.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113923/History-Foretells-Obama-First-Job-Approval-Rating.aspx


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Democratic Hawk on January 24, 2009, 01:58:35 pm
According to Gallup, Obama starts with a 68-12 approval rating (Jan. 21-23).

That's better than Clinton (58-20) and Bush (57-25) and comparable with Eisenhower (68-7), Kennedy (72-6) and Carter (66-8).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113962/Obama-Starts-Job-Approval.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113923/History-Foretells-Obama-First-Job-Approval-Rating.aspx

Not so good over at Rasmussen, however

Approve 61% (-1); strongly 44% (-1)

Disapprove 33% (+4); strongly 18% (+2)

 Link  (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_approval_index)

Dave


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on January 24, 2009, 02:12:59 pm
Very strong numbers in Virginia.  It's interesting to see him at 41-38 among conservatives, and 47-34 among Evangelicals.  The only group that disapproves of him are Republicans, and even then it's only a -13, with 25% unsure.  He's actually above 50% with most groups, which is a good sign.  I'm a little surprised he's the same with men and women, though.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2009, 08:47:30 am
Rasmussen (25-01-2009):

60% Approve (-1)
36% Disapprove (+3)


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Special K on January 25, 2009, 08:58:36 am
I couldn't agree more.  Closing Guantanamo and all secret prisons was an excellent first move.  What needs to be done now is prosecute those who were responsible for the atrocities that took place there.
Making healthcare reform a priority is another thing I approve of.
 


You're absolutely right.  Closing Guantanamo and allowing some already confirmed 60 or so terrorists back into their terrorist camps was a great idea.

Bravo Obama!  May he be President 4 Life!


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Eraserhead on January 25, 2009, 12:49:02 pm
I couldn't agree more.  Closing Guantanamo and all secret prisons was an excellent first move.  What needs to be done now is prosecute those who were responsible for the atrocities that took place there.
Making healthcare reform a priority is another thing I approve of.
 


You're absolutely right.  Closing Guantanamo and allowing some already confirmed 60 or so terrorists back into their terrorist camps was a great idea.

Bravo Obama!  May he be President 4 Life!

You do realize that your heroes Hillary and McCain claim that they would also have closed it?


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 25, 2009, 12:58:22 pm
Rasmussen (25-01-2009):

60% Approve (-1)
36% Disapprove (+3)

Already? Wow.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Holmes on January 25, 2009, 01:11:35 pm
I couldn't agree more.  Closing Guantanamo and all secret prisons was an excellent first move.  What needs to be done now is prosecute those who were responsible for the atrocities that took place there.
Making healthcare reform a priority is another thing I approve of.
 


You're absolutely right.  Closing Guantanamo and allowing some already confirmed 60 or so terrorists back into their terrorist camps was a great idea.

Bravo Obama!  May he be President 4 Life!
You're right, detaining people suspected of terrorism without a proper trial and making them live in horrible conditions is the way to go.

:)


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Democratic Hawk on January 25, 2009, 01:14:43 pm
Rasmussen (25-01-2009):

60% Approve (-1)
36% Disapprove (+3)

Not surprisingly, partisan and ideological divides remain clear when it comes to evaluating the President. The number of political conservatives who Strongly Disapprove of Obama’s performance has increased from 29% on the morning of Inauguration Day to 38% today. Only 17% of conservatives Strongly Approve.

At the other extreme, 79% of liberal voters Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance to date while just 5% Strongly Disapprove.

On a partisan basis, the President earns a +68 rating from Democrats, a -23 rating from Republicans, and a +8 from those not affiliated with either major party. Among the unaffiliated voters, 32% Strongly Approve and 24% Strongly Disapprove.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: BM on January 25, 2009, 01:20:10 pm
I expected him to stay in the high 60s-low 70s for at least a month or longer.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2009, 01:27:45 pm
Rasmussen (25-01-2009):

60% Approve (-1)
36% Disapprove (+3)

Already? Wow.

Well, according to Gallup he's in better shape today:

69% Approve (+1)
13% Disapprove (+1)

Don't know really why there's such a big difference between the 2 institutes, but if SUSA showed Obama with a 60% approval rating in Alabama, I tend to trust Gallup more ...


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Lief 🐋 on January 25, 2009, 01:36:34 pm
Rasmussen has a bit of a Republican lean, we should remember.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Eraserhead on January 25, 2009, 02:12:18 pm
They ask the question in a different manner too. Please don't start the hackfest already. kthanx


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: The love that set me free on January 25, 2009, 02:37:20 pm
They ask the question in a different manner too. Please don't start the hackfest already. kthanx

And they use a different weighting model which brings it closer to the center. We all know how hackish I can be and the whole "Rasmussen is a Republican pollster" crap annoys even ME.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on January 25, 2009, 05:06:51 pm
I couldn't agree more.  Closing Guantanamo and all secret prisons was an excellent first move.  What needs to be done now is prosecute those who were responsible for the atrocities that took place there.
Making healthcare reform a priority is another thing I approve of.
 


You're absolutely right.  Closing Guantanamo and allowing some already confirmed 60 or so terrorists back into their terrorist camps was a great idea.

Bravo Obama!  May he be President 4 Life!

You do realize that your heroes Hillary and McCain claim that they would also have closed it?

or that it won't actually be closed for a year and that nobody will be released as a direct result of it's closing?


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Democratic Hawk on January 26, 2009, 09:23:51 am

Well, according to Gallup he's in better shape today:

69% Approve (+1)
13% Disapprove (+1)


http://www.gallup.com/poll/113968/Obama-Initial-Approval-Ratings-Historical-Context.aspx

By Party Affiliation

Democrats: Approve 88%; Disapprove 2%; No opinion 10% (+86)
Independents: Approve 62%; Disapprove 12%; No opinion 27% (+50)
Republicans: Approve 43%; Disapprove 30%; No opinion 27% (+13)

Other approvals:

Liberals 83%; Moderates 75%; Conservatives 52%

18-to-29 year olds 79%; Nonwhites 78%; Women 71%; Men 64%

Jan. 21-24 Gallup Poll Daily tracking

Dave


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Matt Damon™ on January 26, 2009, 09:26:43 am
How the hell are a majority of cons approving of a lib?


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Democratic Hawk on January 26, 2009, 09:39:25 am
How the hell are a majority of cons approving of a lib?

Rasmussen, on the other hand, tells a different story. 17% of conservatives strongly approve; 38% strongly disapprove

Dave


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Democratic Hawk on January 26, 2009, 09:43:47 am
Rasmussen (26-01-2009):

60% Approve (n/c)
37% Disapprove (+1)

Forty-six percent (46%) of women strongly approve along with 36% of men. Eighty-one percent (81%) of African-American voters Strongly Approve along with 37% of White voters. Among those who see the economy as the most important issue, 55% Strongly Approve.

At the same time, the President’s negatives have risen a bit since he assumed office and 20% now Strongly Disapprove of his performance. That stems largely from growing disapproval from conservatives. The higher negatives give Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of +21, his lowest rating as President or President-elect since before Thanksgiving.


Dave


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 27, 2009, 01:40:35 am
Latest Des Moines Register Iowa poll by Selzer & Co.:

68% Approve
12% Disapprove

Pretty similar to SUSA, allthough both Selzer and SUSA overestimated Obama in the GE ...

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20090126/NEWS09/901260331/1056


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Democratic Hawk on January 27, 2009, 01:57:11 pm
Rasmussen (27-01-2009):

62% Approve (+2)
36% Disapprove (-1)

Among those who see the economy as the top issue, 55% Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance. He also gets such upbeat ratings from 64% of those who view domestic issues as tops. Among national security voters, 19% Strongly Approve. Nineteen percent (19%) of cultural issue voters Strongly Approve as do 11% of fiscal policy voters.

Dave


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Holmes on January 27, 2009, 02:06:59 pm
Rasmussen (27-01-2009):

62% Approve (+2)
36% Disapprove (-1)
Already? Wow.

;)


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 27, 2009, 02:24:40 pm
Rasmussen (27-01-2009):

62% Approve (+2)
36% Disapprove (-1)
Already? Wow.

;)

It`s about 65% right now if we average Rasmussen and Gallup and assign the Undecideds.

It`s probably not 70% because a few Conservatives who previously were undecided or mildly approving were scared away by Obama's abortion orders and big spending plans ...


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Holmes on January 27, 2009, 04:50:09 pm
West Virginia

Approve: 67%
Disapprove: doesn't say

http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=50464

Dunno how reliable this pollster is though. But apparently Manchin is mad popular.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Nym90 on January 27, 2009, 11:51:15 pm
How the hell are a majority of cons approving of a lib?

Probably the same way that a majority of liberals and Democrats approved of Bush's job performance in the aftermath of 9/11.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Matt Damon™ on January 28, 2009, 08:58:09 am
But Obama hasn't even done anything major yet!


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Brittain33 on January 28, 2009, 09:15:49 am
But Obama hasn't even done anything major yet!

He identified all of his main advisors and the bulk of his Cabinet and helped shape the stimulus bill the House is about to pass.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on January 30, 2009, 02:11:32 pm
Rasmussen:

63% Approve
36% Disapprove

Gallup:

66% Approve
17% Disapprove

FOX News:

65% Approve
16% Disapprove


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on February 06, 2009, 03:42:07 am
Update:

Rasmussen:

62% Approve
36% Disapprove

Gallup:

65% Approve
20% Disapprove

CBS News:

62% Approve
15% Disapprove


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 06, 2009, 04:08:10 am
Update:

Rasmussen:

62% Approve
36% Disapprove

Gallup:

65% Approve
20% Disapprove

CBS News:

62% Approve
15% Disapprove

Well, it's obvious that the Obama presidency has failed.
How long till the RNC puts up a clock ticking to his resignation?


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Holmes on February 06, 2009, 08:02:46 am
Oh god, don't give them any ideas.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on February 06, 2009, 11:01:14 am
VA Obama Approval from Rasmussen (Feb. 4):

64% Approve (61% Nationally)
35% Disapprove (36% Nationally)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_february_4_2009


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 06, 2009, 06:45:29 pm
VA Obama Approval from Rasmussen (Feb. 4):

64% Approve (61% Nationally)
35% Disapprove (36% Nationally)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_february_4_2009
PRESIDENCY IN CRISIS; IS IT TOO SOON TO CALL OBAMA THE WORST PRESIDENT IN AMERICAN HISTORY?


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Iosif on February 07, 2009, 10:56:59 am
Huh, it appears the Republican party is out of touch with the American public.

Who would've thought?


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on February 08, 2009, 01:37:24 am
Latest Illinois Obama Approval Rating by Rasmussen (Feb. 3):

73% Approve

Pat Quinn Approval:

80% Approve

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/illinois/64_of_illinois_voters_say_blagojevich_got_fair_trial


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on February 08, 2009, 09:42:42 am
Rasmussen today:

59% Approve
39% Disapprove

"Today’s results mark the first time that Obama’s overall rating has fallen below 60% as either President-elect or President."


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 08, 2009, 12:28:15 pm
Just under three weeks...


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Holmes on February 09, 2009, 08:36:19 am
(
Img
)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/114202/Obama-Upper-Hand-Stimulus-Fight.aspx

Just under three weeks...


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 09, 2009, 10:52:36 am
LOL Republicans.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 09, 2009, 12:23:46 pm


Just under three weeks...

Because we know those historically low approval ratings for the Democrats in Congress over the past two years really hurt them and prevented them from picking up eight seats in the Senate and plenty more in the House...


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 09, 2009, 12:27:14 pm


Just under three weeks...

Because we know those historically low approval ratings for the Democrats in Congress over the past two years really hurt them and prevented them from picking up eight seats in the Senate and plenty more in the House...

No. Bacause the Congressional Republicans approval ratings were even worse.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Eraserhead on February 09, 2009, 12:28:28 pm


Just under three weeks...

Because we know those historically low approval ratings for the Democrats in Congress over the past two years really hurt them and prevented them from picking up eight seats in the Senate and plenty more in the House...

The other major party was considerably less popular though, so that isn't terribly relevant to the current situation.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 09, 2009, 12:36:18 pm


Just under three weeks...

Because we know those historically low approval ratings for the Democrats in Congress over the past two years really hurt them and prevented them from picking up eight seats in the Senate and plenty more in the House...

The other major party was considerably less popular though, so that isn't terribly relevant to the current situation.

And the Reoublicans aren't in power now. So, yes, for the time being, it doesn't help their electability argument but if Obama continues to slip and if the Dems in Congress remain unpopular, watch as the GOP ratings go up.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on February 09, 2009, 01:00:03 pm
They are hanging it all on this stimulus. If it fails, heads will roll. The media will still push the narrative of Obama, though.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 09, 2009, 01:26:33 pm
They are hanging it all on this stimulus. If it fails, heads will roll. The media will still push the narrative of Obama, though.

The same media where during the Stimulus debate the 2/3 of their guests were Republicans?
the same media where Michael Steele says that the Government has NEVER created jobs and Wolf Blitzer says nothing?

Yeah, totaly in the tank for Obama.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Eraserhead on February 09, 2009, 03:13:05 pm
Obama is just about finished, guys. He's only at 76%. ;)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/09/poll.obama.stimulus/index.html


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 09, 2009, 03:13:48 pm
CNN Poll also shows that Obama is still overwhelmingly beloved, the public still hates Republicans and wants them to go away, and a majority still support the stimulus.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/02/another-poll-shows-public-approving-obama-disapproving-gop-on-stimulus.php

Quote
Obama has a 76% overall job approval and 23% disapproval. On the economy specifically, his rating is 72%-28%. Meanwhile, Congress has a very poor rating of 29%-71% -- but it quickly becomes clear that this should be not be simply laid at the feet of the majority Democrats, and is instead the GOP's fault.

The Democratic leadership in Congress has a solid rating of 60%-39%, while the Republican leaders are at 44%-55%. Furthermore, respondents said by 74%-25% that Obama is doing enough to cooperate with Republicans, while they say by a 60%-39% margin that Republicans are not doing enough to cooperate with him.

As for the stimulus bill itself, it is currently favored by a 54%-45% margin. If it becomes law, 16% expect it to do a lot to help the economy, 48% expect it to help somewhat, and only 20% say it won't help.

edit: aw... Eraserhead beat me.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Eraserhead on February 09, 2009, 03:21:10 pm
It's okay, you provided a more detailed presentation. :)


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on February 10, 2009, 12:38:49 am
Obama is just about finished, guys. He's only at 76%. ;)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/09/poll.obama.stimulus/index.html

On Rasmussen, he's back up to 60-38 and up to 66-21 in Gallup's daily tracking.


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2009, 01:30:43 am
New Utah poll by Dan Jones out:

Obama's approval rating is @ 59%.

Among Utah Republicans, 45% approve of Obama and among young Utah voters, Obama's rating is @ 79%.

(
Img
)

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=5564944


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Aizen on February 11, 2009, 01:35:04 am
utah is going to be an interesting state to watch


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 11, 2009, 02:32:09 am
Huh. Obama might yet win Utah in 2012 after all.

(provided he wins in a Reagan- or LBJ-esque fashion, before the Republicans jump down my throat)


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 11, 2009, 01:07:47 pm
Huh. Obama might yet win Utah in 2012 after all.

(provided he wins in a Reagan- or LBJ-esque fashion, before the Republicans jump down my throat)

Give us Kansas, Lief. Come on.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2009, 01:56:53 pm
Latest numbers:

Florida (Strategic Vision)

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's overall job performance?

Approve 64%
Disapprove 25%
Undecided 11%

2. Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's handling of the economy?

Approve 59%
Disapprove 26%
Undecided 15%

3. Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's handling of the war in Iraq?

Approve 65%
Disapprove 19%
Undecided 16%

4. Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's handling of the war on terrorism?

Approve 58%
Disapprove 23%
Undecided 19%

5. Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's order to close the Guantanamo Bay prison housing terror suspects?

Approve 42%
Disapprove 49%
Undecided 9%

The poll results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted February 6-8, 2009. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/florida_poll_021109.htm

Connecticut (Quinnipiac)

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's overall job performance?

Approve 69%
Disapprove 18%
Undecided 13%

From February 5 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,603 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1260

Ohio (Quinnipiac)

Approve 67%
Disapprove 16%
Undecided 17%

From January 29 - February 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,127 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1258

New Jersey (Quinnipiac)

Approve 65%
Disapprove 16%
Undecided 19%

From January 29 - February 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,173 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1256

New Pennsylvania numbers by Quinnipiac will be released tomorrow ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on February 11, 2009, 02:48:01 pm
It's about time somebody cut a map based on the random states provided in this thread so far:


()


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2009, 03:13:39 pm
It's about time somebody cut a map based on the random states provided in this thread so far:

Thx. For what it's worth, here's the latest NC Obama Approval Rating by Civitas:

60% Approve
6% Disapprove
34% Undecided

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/january-2009-monthly-poll


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 12, 2009, 01:36:10 am
Brand-new McClatchy-Ipsos poll (they absolutely nailed the 2008 election with a 53-46 poll (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/election2008/story/55193.html)):

69% Approve (38% Strongly)
26% Disapprove (12% Strongly)

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/310/story/61991.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Aizen on February 12, 2009, 01:42:20 am
anyone who has the audacity to disapprove of obama is a traitor


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on February 12, 2009, 01:43:36 am
It's about time somebody cut a map based on the random states provided in this thread so far:

Thx. For what it's worth, here's the latest NC Obama Approval Rating by Civitas:

60% Approve
6% Disapprove
34% Undecided

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/january-2009-monthly-poll

6%? LOL.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 12, 2009, 12:23:51 pm
anyone who has the audacity to disapprove of obama is a traitor

That goes too far --  way too far. I heard much the same about dissent with George W. Bush many times, and on some other Forums after I criticized the Great and Infallible Leader I occasionally saw suggestions that I find another country -- typically Iran, Cuba, or North Korea. 

Dissent with the President is not treachery. Insistence that dissent with the President is disloyalty to the Nation is in fact a repudiation of the principles upon which our Constitutional republic was founded.

Article 3, Section 3 of the Constitution of the United States defines treason and limits it so that treason applies only to the most blatant acts of disloyalty to the United States, such as waging war against the United States, collaborating with wartime enemies, or conspiring to overthrow the government of the United States on behalf of a foreign power.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bacon King on February 12, 2009, 12:28:31 pm
anyone who has the audacity to disapprove of obama is a traitor

That goes too far --  way too far. I heard much the same about dissent with George W. Bush many times, and on some other Forums after I criticized the Great and Infallible Leader I occasionally saw suggestions that I find another country -- typically Iran, Cuba, or North Korea. 

Dissent with the President is not treachery. Insistence that dissent with the President is disloyalty to the Nation is in fact a repudiation of the principles upon which our Constitutional republic was founded.

Article 3, Section 3 of the Constitution of the United States defines treason and limits it so that treason applies only to the most blatant acts of disloyalty to the United States, such as waging war against the United States, collaborating with wartime enemies, or conspiring to overthrow the government of the United States on behalf of a foreign power.

he was being sarcastic bro


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Jimmie on February 12, 2009, 12:42:24 pm
anyone who has the audacity to disapprove of obama is a traitor


^^^^

Finally we agree on something.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on February 12, 2009, 01:19:07 pm
anyone who has the audacity to disapprove of obama is a traitor


^^^^

Finally we agree on something.
Sorta makes your almost feel bad that we are closing Gitmo....almost...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 12, 2009, 02:07:49 pm
Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac):

63% Approve
22% Disapprove

From February 5 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,490 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1262


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on February 12, 2009, 02:14:16 pm
It's about time somebody cut a map based on the random states provided in this thread so far:

Thx. For what it's worth, here's the latest NC Obama Approval Rating by Civitas:

60% Approve
6% Disapprove
34% Undecided

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/january-2009-monthly-poll

6%? LOL.
36% "undecided" :P

Thanks for the numbers. :)


Title: Re: SurveyUSA: First Obama Approval Ratings in various states
Post by: Holmes on February 12, 2009, 02:26:13 pm
utah is going to be an interesting state to watch
If Huckabee is the nominee and all he does is whine about how Obama is un-religious...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on February 12, 2009, 03:07:05 pm
Are there any numbers from Indiana? I'm anxious to see those.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 13, 2009, 01:47:02 pm
Massachusetts (Rasmussen):

69% Approve
29% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 10, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/massachusetts/toplines/toplines_massachusetts_february_10_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 13, 2009, 03:27:16 pm
It's about time somebody cut a map based on the random states provided in this thread so far:


()


Pennsylvania now accounted for -- no surprise there, except I could use a darker shade of green.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Verily on February 13, 2009, 03:41:53 pm
It's about time somebody cut a map based on the random states provided in this thread so far:


()


Pennsylvania now accounted for -- no surprise there, except I could use a darker shade of green.

The third number is the percentage. I also updated Massachusetts (although really Rasmussen should be kept separate from everyone else because they claim to poll approval differently). But, if we're using everything, Civitas is in there, too.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2009, 03:51:51 am
RealClearPolitics has a new average tracking Obama's approval:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 17, 2009, 01:25:50 am
Latest New Hampshire poll by the University of NH:

Obama Approval Rating

66% Approve
21% Disapprove

Obama Favorable Rating:

71% Favorable
16% Unfavorable

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 619 randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between February 5 and February 9, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-3.9 percent.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2009_winter_presapp21609.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 17, 2009, 01:47:43 pm
It's about time somebody cut a map based on the random states provided in this thread so far:


()


New Hampshire now accounted for, with a very dark green shade.

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 17, 2009, 01:49:32 pm
Latest Rhode Island poll by Brown University:

How would you rate the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

Excellent/Good: 62.4%
Fair/Poor: 16.5%
Don’t know/No answer: 21.1%

The survey was conducted Feb. 7-10, 2009, at Brown University by Marion Orr, the Fred Lippitt Professor of Public Policy and Political Science and director of the Taubman Center for Public Policy and the John Hazen White Public Opinion Laboratory. It is based on a statewide random sample of 451 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, the poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

http://news.brown.edu/pressreleases/2009/02/survey


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 17, 2009, 02:13:07 pm
Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 17, 2009, 02:30:38 pm
Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.

It might be hard to see, but we get to add Rhode Island:

()


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 17, 2009, 02:37:18 pm
Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.

Selzer is generally good, but overestimated Obama in IA. SV tends to overestimate Republicans early in the year (just like Rasmussen), but ends up producing good polls just before the election. They just got FL wrong last year. PPP was also rather good, underestimated Obama in Nevada and got MT wrong.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2009, 01:48:38 pm
Update:

Rasmussen: 60% Approve, 39% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Gallup: 62% Approve, 25% Disapprove

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics: 60% Approve, 26% Disapprove

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/021909_FNCPoll.pdf

ARG: 60% Approve, 33% Disapprove

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

AP-GfK: 67% Approve, 24% Disapprove

http://surveys.ap.org/data%5CGfK%5CAP-GfK%20Poll%20Topline%20021809.pdf

.....

New York (Quinnipiac):

72% Approve, 17% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1267

Florida (Quinnipiac):

64% Approve, 23% Disapprove
69% Favorable, 22% Unfavorable

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1266

North Carolina (PPP):

52% Approve, 41% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_218.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: HokeyDood on February 19, 2009, 02:07:43 pm
Update:

Rasmussen: 60% Approve, 39% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Gallup: 62% Approve, 25% Disapprove

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics: 60% Approve, 26% Disapprove

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/021909_FNCPoll.pdf

ARG: 60% Approve, 33% Disapprove

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

AP-GfK: 67% Approve, 24% Disapprove

http://surveys.ap.org/data%5CGfK%5CAP-GfK%20Poll%20Topline%20021809.pdf

.....

New York (Quinnipiac):

72% Approve, 17% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1267

Florida (Quinnipiac):

64% Approve, 23% Disapprove
69% Favorable, 22% Unfavorable

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1266

North Carolina (PPP):

52% Approve, 41% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_218.pdf

NC can't be right. 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on February 19, 2009, 07:17:44 pm
Update:

North Carolina (PPP):

52% Approve, 41% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_218.pdf

NC can't be right. 

Well, according to PPP, only 50% of 18-to-29-year-olds approve of Obama, while 46% disapprove; and this was the only age demographic he carried in November by a thumping 76-24 against McCain, according to exits

He has a net approval rating of 19% (56-37) among the 35-45s, which he lost 48-52; +12 (53-41) among the 46-65s, which he lost 43-56; and +4 (46-42) among the 65+, which he lost 43-56

Dave


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on February 19, 2009, 07:53:25 pm
Pew Research [February 18, 2009]

Approve 64%; Disapprove 17%

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1125/terrorism-guantanamo-torture-polling


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on February 19, 2009, 07:55:41 pm
North Carolina must be off.  PPP probably flipped some numbers around.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2009, 12:54:13 am
Michigan (Rasmussen - Feb. 18 - 500 LV):

68% Approve
32% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/michigan/toplines/toplines_michigan_february_18_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 20, 2009, 01:08:23 am
Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.

It might be hard to see, but we get to add Rhode Island:

()

... and now Michigan, until now the most populous state for which an approval rating wasn't yet posted. Georgia might be equal in electoral votes in 2012, though, as people who have a chance to leave "Michigrim" get to do so.

The Quinnipiac polls put Florida in the 65-75 range, so I make a revision. (I am not making an upgrade for a DailyKos rating for Washington state because DailyKos has an overwhelming left-wing slant).

It looks as the GOP has its work cut out for itself if it is to achieve anything in the 2012 election. Note that Obama barely won Florida, and his approval rating in Florida approaches 70%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2009, 01:13:30 am
Latest Washington numbers (R2000 for DailyKos, Feb. 16-18, 600 LV):

66% favorable
21% unfavorable

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/2/18/WA/209


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on February 20, 2009, 01:23:15 am
You'd think people would be polling Indiana by now.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 20, 2009, 10:31:01 am
R2k/DailyKos released their weekly update today. They poll a lot of stuff, it's pretty interesting, you should check it out: http://www.dailykos.com/weeklytrends

Obama Approval:
Favorable: 69% (+1)
Unfavorable: 26% (+1)
Don't know: 5% (-2)

Pelosi is also the only Congressional leader with net favorables (43-39).



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 20, 2009, 06:40:41 pm
R2k/DailyKos released their weekly update today. They poll a lot of stuff, it's pretty interesting, you should check it out: http://www.dailykos.com/weeklytrends

Obama Approval:
Favorable: 69% (+1)
Unfavorable: 26% (+1)
Don't know: 5% (-2)

Pelosi is also the only Congressional leader with net favorables (43-39).



Compare those Pelosi numbers to the ones produced by Rasmussen(35-58), and you obviously see that these polls for Kos have an overwhelming Democratic bias.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 20, 2009, 06:47:03 pm
1) Favorable vs. Approval; it's different

2) Rasmussen seems to be an approval outlier, compared to nearly every other polling firm


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 20, 2009, 07:25:59 pm
1) Favorable vs. Approval; it's different

2) Rasmussen seems to be an approval outlier, compared to nearly every other polling firm

Number 2 is pretty much false. They have Obama at 59% while FOX has him at 60% and Gallup at 63%. The ones in the upper 60's are the true outliers(CNN, KOS).


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 20, 2009, 07:40:47 pm
They've pretty consistently had his disapprovals about 10% higher than everyone else (except Insider Advantage and Zogby Internet): http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 20, 2009, 08:41:01 pm
They've pretty consistently had his disapprovals about 10% higher than everyone else (except Insider Advantage and Zogby Internet): http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

Well they probably push people more. The others have high numbers of "not sure" which is not really believable that a person could not have an opinion about the President of the United States.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 21, 2009, 12:53:34 am
Georgia (Rasmussen - Feb. 17 - 500 LV):

58% Approve
41% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/georgia/toplines/toplines_georgia_likely_voters_february_17_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 21, 2009, 12:57:20 am
According to Rasmussen's Daily Tracking, Obama's national approval was 59%.

So, if 58% approve in Georgia (which was about -5 for Obama in the '08 election) and 68% in Michigan (which was about +5 for Obama), I think his national approval must be somewhere around 63%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 21, 2009, 01:08:12 am
New CNN poll:

67% Approve
29% Disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 21, 2009, 01:28:49 am
They've pretty consistently had his disapprovals about 10% higher than everyone else (except Insider Advantage and Zogby Internet): http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

Well they probably push people more. The others have high numbers of "not sure" which is not really believable that a person could not have an opinion about the President of the United States.

Well, whatever they're methodology, it's giving results far off from every other poll that isn't a joke. We should take Rasmussen polls with a grain of salt; they seem to have something of a "house effect", if I may borrow a Silverism.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2009, 03:11:13 am
Doesn't Rasmussen count "fair" as disapprove?

That makes a considerable difference and is annoying and inane.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 10:00:14 am
Doesn't Rasmussen count "fair" as disapprove?

That makes a considerable difference and is annoying and inane.

Here's the question they ask: "Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job President Obama is doing?"

The first two add up to your approval number and the second two are the disapproval.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 21, 2009, 11:12:52 am

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.
Approval ratings just came in for Georgia, a swing state into which Obama put much effort until September (when the GOP gave a scare):

()

... and now Georgia, until now the most populous state for which an approval rating wasn't yet posted. Georgia might be equal in electoral votes to Michigan in 2012, though, as people who have a chance to leave "Michigrim" get to do so.

It looks as the GOP has its work cut out for itself if it is to achieve anything in the 2012 election. Note that Obama barely won Florida, and his approval rating in Florida approaches 70%. Right now it seems that any Republican who had to challenge Obama today for the Presidency would be the new Alf Landon... with apologies to Landon in case the personalities aren't the same.

Mercifully for the GOP, the election isn't being held today. 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 07:42:25 pm
I still don't understand the euphoria about Obama's approval ratings.  It's called a honeymoon you morons.  And Obama's approval rating has gone consistently down.  There is nothing to celebrate here.  Call me back at the end of the year.

In fact, his approval is tanking in the Rasmussen poll, down to 57% today.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 21, 2009, 07:45:48 pm
I still don't understand the euphoria about Obama's approval ratings.  It's called a honeymoon you morons.  And Obama's approval rating has gone consistently down.  There is nothing to celebrate here.  Call me back at the end of the year.

In fact, his approval is tanking in the Rasmussen poll, down to 57% today.

I give him one month before he gets impeached.
;)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on February 21, 2009, 07:46:05 pm
I still don't understand the euphoria about Obama's approval ratings.  It's called a honeymoon you morons.  And Obama's approval rating has gone consistently down.  There is nothing to celebrate here.  Call me back at the end of the year.

In fact, his approval is tanking in the Rasmussen poll, down to 57% today.

What a joke. Even Fox has 60%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 07:49:16 pm
I still don't understand the euphoria about Obama's approval ratings.  It's called a honeymoon you morons.  And Obama's approval rating has gone consistently down.  There is nothing to celebrate here.  Call me back at the end of the year.

In fact, his approval is tanking in the Rasmussen poll, down to 57% today.

What a joke. Even Fox has 60%.

Yeah, call the most accurate pollster in 2008 a joke. See what there gets you.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on February 21, 2009, 07:52:47 pm
I still don't understand the euphoria about Obama's approval ratings.  It's called a honeymoon you morons.  And Obama's approval rating has gone consistently down.  There is nothing to celebrate here.  Call me back at the end of the year.

In fact, his approval is tanking in the Rasmussen poll, down to 57% today.

What a joke. Even Fox has 60%.

Yeah, call the most accurate pollster in 2008 a joke. See what there gets you.

That doesn't stop his approval rating polls from being some serious outliers. Toss out the 2 biggest outliers (Rasmussen and CNN), and it's clear that his approval rating is in the 60s.
http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 07:56:05 pm
I still don't understand the euphoria about Obama's approval ratings.  It's called a honeymoon you morons.  And Obama's approval rating has gone consistently down.  There is nothing to celebrate here.  Call me back at the end of the year.

In fact, his approval is tanking in the Rasmussen poll, down to 57% today.

What a joke. Even Fox has 60%.

Yeah, call the most accurate pollster in 2008 a joke. See what there gets you.

That doesn't stop his approval rating polls from being some serious outliers. Toss out the 2 biggest outliers (Rasmussen and CNN), and it's clear that his approval rating is in the 60s.
http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm

Those polls are outdated.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on February 21, 2009, 07:58:29 pm
I still don't understand the euphoria about Obama's approval ratings.  It's called a honeymoon you morons.  And Obama's approval rating has gone consistently down.  There is nothing to celebrate here.  Call me back at the end of the year.

In fact, his approval is tanking in the Rasmussen poll, down to 57% today.

What a joke. Even Fox has 60%.

Yeah, call the most accurate pollster in 2008 a joke. See what there gets you.

That doesn't stop his approval rating polls from being some serious outliers. Toss out the 2 biggest outliers (Rasmussen and CNN), and it's clear that his approval rating is in the 60s.
http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm

Those polls are outdated.

Hardly. The 3 most recent from there:
CNN 2/18-19 67%
Fox 2/17-18 60%
AP 2/12-17 67%

Also, Research 2000 2/16-19 69%


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 08:02:47 pm
I still don't understand the euphoria about Obama's approval ratings.  It's called a honeymoon you morons.  And Obama's approval rating has gone consistently down.  There is nothing to celebrate here.  Call me back at the end of the year.

In fact, his approval is tanking in the Rasmussen poll, down to 57% today.

What a joke. Even Fox has 60%.

Yeah, call the most accurate pollster in 2008 a joke. See what there gets you.

That doesn't stop his approval rating polls from being some serious outliers. Toss out the 2 biggest outliers (Rasmussen and CNN), and it's clear that his approval rating is in the 60s.
http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm

Those polls are outdated.

Hardly. The 3 most recent from there:
CNN 2/18-19 67%
Fox 2/17-18 60%
AP 2/12-17 67%

Also, Research 2000 2/16-19 69%


Rasmussen polls Likely Voters, meaning he uses a realistic voter breakdown. The others just pick random people off the streets.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 21, 2009, 08:13:46 pm
Likely voters for what? The election is 4 years away.

And Rasmussen was far from the most accurate pollster in 2008. They were pretty mediocre overall, and had a bit of a Republican bias.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 08:16:30 pm
Likely voters for what? The election is 4 years away.

And Rasmussen was far from the most accurate pollster in 2008. They were pretty mediocre overall, and had a bit of a Republican bias.

On the national poll they were essentially dead on. They had 52-46, the final was 53-46. I'd call that pretty damn accurate. Did I say they got the states right?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2009, 09:01:03 pm
Likely voters for what? The election is 4 years away.

And Rasmussen was far from the most accurate pollster in 2008. They were pretty mediocre overall, and had a bit of a Republican bias.

On the national poll they were essentially dead on. They had 52-46, the final was 53-46. I'd call that pretty damn accurate. Did I say they got the states right?

When you're determining who is a good pollster, ignoring state polling in favor of the final national result is a bad idea.  It's essentially taking one poll and ignoring dozens of others that use a similar methodology.

Either way, an LV screen right now does very little.  The only criteria that can be employed, is past electoral participation.  I'd much prefer RV for now.  Adult does tend to have a Democratic bias.

But you're still doing that annoying mode of analysis you did last time you were here.  You do realize that you were, how to say this, completely wrong?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 09:04:21 pm
Likely voters for what? The election is 4 years away.

And Rasmussen was far from the most accurate pollster in 2008. They were pretty mediocre overall, and had a bit of a Republican bias.

On the national poll they were essentially dead on. They had 52-46, the final was 53-46. I'd call that pretty damn accurate. Did I say they got the states right?

When you're determining who is a good pollster, ignoring state polling in favor of the final national result is a bad idea.  It's essentially taking one poll and ignoring dozens of others that use a similar methodology.

Either way, an LV screen right now does very little.  The only criteria that can be employed, is past electoral participation.  I'd much prefer RV for now.  Adult does tend to have a Democratic bias.

But you're still doing that annoying mode of analysis you did last time you were here.  You do realize that you were, how to say this, completely wrong?

Apparently I haven't. And the only RV poll out there right now is FOX and that is at 60%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2009, 09:11:56 pm
Likely voters for what? The election is 4 years away.

And Rasmussen was far from the most accurate pollster in 2008. They were pretty mediocre overall, and had a bit of a Republican bias.

On the national poll they were essentially dead on. They had 52-46, the final was 53-46. I'd call that pretty damn accurate. Did I say they got the states right?

When you're determining who is a good pollster, ignoring state polling in favor of the final national result is a bad idea.  It's essentially taking one poll and ignoring dozens of others that use a similar methodology.

Either way, an LV screen right now does very little.  The only criteria that can be employed, is past electoral participation.  I'd much prefer RV for now.  Adult does tend to have a Democratic bias.

But you're still doing that annoying mode of analysis you did last time you were here.  You do realize that you were, how to say this, completely wrong?

Apparently I haven't. And the only RV poll out there right now is FOX and that is at 60%.

It's equally unnecessary to just disregard adult polls, though.  If you ask an average group of adults, "are you registered to vote?," many will lie in the affirmative.  Therefore, the % RV is not really hugely lower than the % adult.  It does not account for a nine-point swing like that.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 09:14:53 pm
Likely voters for what? The election is 4 years away.

And Rasmussen was far from the most accurate pollster in 2008. They were pretty mediocre overall, and had a bit of a Republican bias.

On the national poll they were essentially dead on. They had 52-46, the final was 53-46. I'd call that pretty damn accurate. Did I say they got the states right?

When you're determining who is a good pollster, ignoring state polling in favor of the final national result is a bad idea.  It's essentially taking one poll and ignoring dozens of others that use a similar methodology.

Either way, an LV screen right now does very little.  The only criteria that can be employed, is past electoral participation.  I'd much prefer RV for now.  Adult does tend to have a Democratic bias.

But you're still doing that annoying mode of analysis you did last time you were here.  You do realize that you were, how to say this, completely wrong?

Apparently I haven't. And the only RV poll out there right now is FOX and that is at 60%.

It's equally unnecessary to just disregard adult polls, though.  If you ask an average group of adults, "are you registered to vote?," many will lie in the affirmative.  Therefore, the % RV is not really hugely lower than the % adult.  It does not account for a nine-point swing like that.

You also have to take into account the quality of the pollster. CNN and R2K are known to have a liberal bias.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2009, 09:18:03 pm
You also have to take into account the quality of the pollster. CNN and R2K are known to have a liberal bias.

1. "Are known to"?  Is this a feeling, or do you have 2008 analytical numbers?  It may be true, but I doubt you know why other than because you want it to be.

2. You're known to have a sharp implicit conservative bias, but yet you never ever ever ever account for that.  You account for other biases rigorously, but only in order to support your own.  What the hell is up with that?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 09:23:26 pm
You also have to take into account the quality of the pollster. CNN and R2K are known to have a liberal bias.

1. "Are known to"?  Is this a feeling, or do you have 2008 analytical numbers?  It may be true, but I doubt you know why other than because you want it to be.

2. You're known to have a sharp implicit conservative bias, but yet you never ever ever ever account for that.  You account for other biases rigorously, but only in order to support your own.  What the hell is up with that?

1. In some states they did, but since they never released the crosstabs its hard to tell.
2. I am a moderate.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2009, 09:27:19 pm
You also have to take into account the quality of the pollster. CNN and R2K are known to have a liberal bias.

1. "Are known to"?  Is this a feeling, or do you have 2008 analytical numbers?  It may be true, but I doubt you know why other than because you want it to be.

2. You're known to have a sharp implicit conservative bias, but yet you never ever ever ever account for that.  You account for other biases rigorously, but only in order to support your own.  What the hell is up with that?

1. In some states they did, but since they never released the crosstabs its hard to tell.

Why would the crosstabs be relevant to the topline?  We're not adjusting for crosstabs with these polls, either.

2. I am a moderate.

I don't care if you're a full-fledged communist.  Your "adjustment" techniques render a sharp pro-Republican bias to your analysis.  Your political affiliation does not make the analysis any less bad.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 09:29:25 pm
You also have to take into account the quality of the pollster. CNN and R2K are known to have a liberal bias.

1. "Are known to"?  Is this a feeling, or do you have 2008 analytical numbers?  It may be true, but I doubt you know why other than because you want it to be.

2. You're known to have a sharp implicit conservative bias, but yet you never ever ever ever account for that.  You account for other biases rigorously, but only in order to support your own.  What the hell is up with that?

1. In some states they did, but since they never released the crosstabs its hard to tell.

Why would the crosstabs be relevant to the topline?  We're not adjusting for crosstabs with these polls, either.

2. I am a moderate.

I don't care if you're a full-fledged communist.  Your "adjustment" techniques render a sharp pro-Republican bias to your analysis.  Your political affiliation does not make the analysis any less bad.

They are relevant because if they oversampled Democrats and just happened to get lucky with the topline, that doesn't make them a good pollster.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2009, 09:36:32 pm
They are relevant because if they oversampled Democrats and just happened to get lucky with the topline, that doesn't make them a good pollster.

That's a fair point.  However, in the past you've used that just to claim that Democrats are oversampled, and it turned out you were wrong.

Which brings me to the half of my post you clearly ignored, and I eagerly await an answer to.  This is your chance to admit analytical fault, correct for your errors, and redeem yourself -- the scientific way!

Or, keep living in fantasyland and I'll keep annoying you like this.  What's your choice on this one?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 09:41:36 pm
They are relevant because if they oversampled Democrats and just happened to get lucky with the topline, that doesn't make them a good pollster.

That's a fair point.  However, in the past you've used that just to claim that Democrats are oversampled, and it turned out you were wrong.

Which brings me to the half of my post you clearly ignored, and I eagerly await an answer to.  This is your chance to admit analytical fault, correct for your errors, and redeem yourself -- the scientific way!

Or, keep living in fantasyland and I'll keep annoying you like this.  What's your choice on this one?

I'll admit that in 2008 there was an ahistorical party ID jump towards the Democrats that I did not expect. To go from a tie in party ID to D+8 was something that I found hard to believe. I was basing my analysis off of history, and it turned out to be wrong. Life goes on.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2009, 09:42:52 pm
So you think that you used the information available to the best of your abilities?

And you think that you are not any more zealous in adjusting for things that favor Republicans, than Democrats?

That's your final answer?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 09:49:17 pm
So you think that you used the information available to the best of your abilities?

Probably not.

Quote
And you think that you are not any more zealous in adjusting for things that favor Republicans, than Democrats?

Of course I am going to try to make things seem better for my candidate than they might appear to be, everyone does that to some degree. But at no point after mid-September, did I ever believe McCain actually had a shot to win.

Quote
That's your final answer?

I'd like to phone a friend first.




Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Meeker on February 21, 2009, 10:31:01 pm
I find it really funny when anyone thinks Alcon is being a hack for either side.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 21, 2009, 10:37:10 pm
I find it really funny when anyone thinks Alcon is being a hack for either side.

Well, I sort of agree. He plays both sides so frequently that he can't be established as a hack for just one side.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hash on February 21, 2009, 10:45:28 pm
I still don't understand the euphoria about Obama's approval ratings.  It's called a honeymoon you morons.  And Obama's approval rating has gone consistently down.  There is nothing to celebrate here.  Call me back at the end of the year.

In fact, his approval is tanking in the Rasmussen poll, down to 57% today.

Time to resign, I guess.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2009, 11:12:48 pm
Probably not.

...

Of course I am going to try to make things seem better for my candidate than they might appear to be, everyone does that to some degree. But at no point after mid-September, did I ever believe McCain actually had a shot to win.

It's a natural human tendency to overestimate evidence to fit a precept.  Most people over-adjust toward what they want to be true.  Some people over-adjust toward pessimism, because then they're always pleasantly surprised.  Others (studly others with I-WA avatars) attempt to compensate artificially for this, by observing their biases and trying to create "weighted" auto-corrections.  And others use different methods of correction.  Corrections like these aren't perfect (or even close!), but they tend to be closer to reality than what our minds initially tell us.

Outright "try[ing] to make things seem better for my candidate than they might appear to be" is even worse than just working on those precepts.  It's, like, bad ESPN football analysis.  "Everyone" does not do that.  And, what's the point?  I guess, if the point of political analysis for you is to find creative ways to prove that what you want to happen, will happen, that's an option.  But, even ifyour goal is creative thinking, the resulting info is totally poisoned.  You could make it more useful.  As it is, the product of your analysis has nothing to with actuality.  It's useless.

I'm not advocating the way I (over)compensate, but knowing you have a bias and encouraging yourself to propagate it, is even worse than pretending that it doesn't exist.  Which is bad enough.  Things will inevitably end up not corresponding with reality.  If you're going in with the intent of making them correspond with reality as little as possible (that is, "make things seem better than they might appear to be"), why even bother advancing your theories?

So, if you're going for something other than realism...well, mazel tov with getting people interested in that.  Otherwise, I ask again:  What the hell?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 11:19:36 pm
Probably not.

...

Of course I am going to try to make things seem better for my candidate than they might appear to be, everyone does that to some degree. But at no point after mid-September, did I ever believe McCain actually had a shot to win.

It's a natural human tendency to overestimate evidence to fit a precept.  Most people over-adjust toward what they want to be true.  Some people over-adjust toward pessimism, because then they're always pleasantly surprised.  Others (studly others with I-WA avatars) attempt to compensate artificially for this, by observing their biases and trying to create "weighted" auto-corrections.  And others use different methods of correction.  Corrections like these aren't perfect (or even close!), but they tend to be closer to reality than what our minds initially tell us.

Outright "try[ing] to make things seem better for my candidate than they might appear to be" is even worse than just working on those precepts.  It's, like, bad ESPN football analysis.  "Everyone" does not do that.  And, what's the point?  I guess, if the point of political analysis for you is to find creative ways to prove that what you want to happen, will happen, that's an option.  But, even ifyour goal is creative thinking, the resulting info is totally poisoned.  You could make it more useful.  As it is, the product of your analysis has nothing to with actuality.  It's useless.

I'm not advocating the way I (over)compensate, but knowing you have a bias and encouraging yourself to propagate it, is even worse than pretending that it doesn't exist.  Which is bad enough.  Things will inevitably end up not corresponding with reality.  If you're going in with the intent of making them correspond with reality as little as possible (that is, "make things seem better than they might appear to be"), why even bother advancing your theories?

So, if you're going for something other than realism...well, mazel tov with getting people interested in that.  Otherwise, I ask again:  What the hell?

Thanks for the lecture. If my goal in life was to please you then I might care, but since it's not, I will continue to be optimistic about my candidates chances, even if that is somehow unacceptable to you.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2009, 11:23:47 pm
That wasn't a lecture, that was a question with paragraphs!  A question with paragraphs!

I'm not asking you to be likable.  I'm just saying there are more private places to masturbate than Internet forums

Metaphorically speaking.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 21, 2009, 11:30:50 pm
That wasn't a lecture, that was a question with paragraphs!  A question with paragraphs!

I'm not asking you to be likable.  I'm just saying there are more private places to masturbate than Internet forums

Metaphorically speaking.

Isn't that the whole point of forums? So people can masturbate together? Metaphorically speaking of course.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2009, 11:34:06 pm
That wasn't a lecture, that was a question with paragraphs!  A question with paragraphs!

I'm not asking you to be likable.  I'm just saying there are more private places to masturbate than Internet forums

Metaphorically speaking.

Isn't that the whole point of forums? So people can masturbate together? Metaphorically speaking of course.

You're creeping me out.  Unmetaphorically.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 22, 2009, 12:53:07 am
I still don't understand the euphoria about Obama's approval ratings.  It's called a honeymoon you morons.  And Obama's approval rating has gone consistently down.  There is nothing to celebrate here.  Call me back at the end of the year.

Cut the allegations of stupidity.

Sure, it might be a honeymoon.  Note well that when the approval rating is above the percentage that voted for him, that something has gone right. The approval rating is above the voting percentage.

What could that mean?

1. That Obama has shown clearly what his administration will be like for until the next Presidential election.

Unlikely. Things can change rapidly. Nobody ever expected George W. Bush to preside over the most extensive interventions in the economy even as late as August 2008.

2. That he has made no severe and irreversible blunders.

That depends upon one's ideology.

3. That he has kept campaigning after winning the election.

That would be pathological if such were true.

4. He was a stronger candidate than the votes suggested in November.

That says more about John McCain than about Barack Obama. Considering how dreadful Dubya was, McCain could hardly have been anything less than an improvement.  Would McCain have similar approval ratings had he won? Maybe.

5. It's the normal respect for the winner if not an incumbent.

He will need to sacrifice some political capital to achieve what he wants to achieve, and both  the economy and extant wars stand to bite back.

6. He has fostered expectations that he can never achieve.   


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 23, 2009, 01:46:34 pm
2/23/09:

Rasmussen 58%/40%
Gallup 62%/25%


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 23, 2009, 02:37:52 pm
What Happened to the Hopemonger?

By David Paul Kuhn

Here's a fact that will probably shock you: Americans today have the same level of confidence in President Obama as they had in George W. Bush after his first month in office. According to Gallup, Obama's public approval rating currently stands at 63 percent, only a point above George W. Bush in late February 2001.

Few modern presidents have been greeted with such lofty expectations as Obama. That Obama now stands where Bush did eight years ago, on the eve of his first address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, serves as a reminder of how quickly the demands of the presidency can sober even the most talented politicians.

Obama's popularity today, by Gallup's measure, is a few points higher than Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan at the infancy of their presidencies. He precisely matches George H.W. Bush. And excluding Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson who took office amid tragedy, and therefore earned staggeringly high early approval, Obama is notably shy of other new presidents. Jimmy Carter and John Kennedy had more than seven out of 10 Americans behind them at the close of their first February in office.

This is the stage Obama takes tomorrow. The hardest legislative battles are before him and the luster that greeted him on Inauguration Day is now behind him.

It's long been said that presidents are only as powerful as their public perception. Already, President Obama has lost a measure of his hopefulness at the moment he most requires it. The public seems to have noticed. And there are some in Washington who speculate that Obama's standing could still worsen.

"Obama is in a much weaker position than his poll numbers suggest and I think that the whole thing could collapse on him sooner rather than later," Doug Schoen, one of Bill Clinton's former pollsters, said.

That remains to be seen. But even at this early stage, Obama has already assumed a good deal of risk. With his first major legislative accomplishment, a $787 billion dollar economic stimulus bill, he has taken ownership of an economy that could quickly worsen.

Obama's potential legislative achievements ahead will be directly tied to his popularity, which has ebbed a couple points in recent weeks. The portion of the public disapproving of the president has also doubled over that period, from 12 percent to 24 percent.

Just last year, President Bush was unable to rally his own party around his bailout legislation because he no longer carried with him the perception of public support. There was a similar impasse a couple years earlier as Bush pushed for immigration reform.

Obama's challenges are far greater than Bush's at the outset of his presidency, as are his objectives. Obama's domestic agenda is the most ambitious since Lyndon Johnson.

President Johnson, however, reminds us of what can go wrong. LBJ aspired to be the greatest president since Franklin Roosevelt. But he escalated a war without end and lost control of the times. Obama's fate is not likely that of Johnson's. But despite the allusions to Roosevelt, comparisons to FDR may be no more apt.

Obama seems however not to be discussed in these sober terms. In fact the one person who could use less sober words, the president himself, seems too solemn in his first weeks.

Obama scoffed during the 2008 campaign at some in Washington considering him, in Obama's words, a "hope-monger." But this is not Obama’'s problem of late. The Democratic president is not offering Carter's malaise. But now some wonder whether the president is helping matters by repeatedly comparing the nation's hard times to its worst economic catastrophe, the Great Depression.

The unemployment rate remains a third of what it was in the first year of Franklin Roosevelt's presidency. FDR inherited a stock market that was 75 percent below its 1929 high. It took decades for the market to return to that high. Obama is right to worry about what more could happen, but he's hardly helping the markets when he repeatedly harkens to its most horrible era.

Moreover, it never helps a player who is in a slump to keep talking about it. So it is with the nation as well. There are now increasingly calls for Obama to move toward the more convincing and sanguine rhetoric of Roosevelt and Reagan. Last week, the president who came from a place called Hope (Arkansas) asked for more soaring words from the candidate of hope. Bill Clinton praised Obama's realism, but he added to ABC News that he “would like” Obama to conclude his speeches “by saying that he is hopeful and completely convinced we’re gonna come through this.” Clinton's talent is not just that he uses optimistic words, but that he conveys reassurance as well. Obama must do no less, especially since some of his ebb in popularity may be partially rooted in his more somber tone.

FDR owned this sense of optimism. His inaugural address framed fear as the antagonist with the famous line, “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” He spoke of overcoming the Great Depression in war-like terms, requesting similarly broad executive powers. He said what mattered was to “try something.” Obama has taken that lesson to heart. Yet FDR was able to do so, in part, because he kept the country believing that he could.

"You have a lot of people invested in this guy succeeding," said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio of Obama. Fabrizio believes its “always better to under promise and over deliver.”

That may be true when it comes to legislation and predicting public support, but Schoen argues that a president must over deliver on the big picture. Obama's restrained optimism, in Schoen's view, is not helping a president already undermined by early mishaps, such as his problems with several cabinet nominations.

"Thirty days after Obama [took office] the Democrats face much more vulnerability than I ever thought was Possible," Schoen said.

Obama came into office with unrivaled good will. Now his early Bush-like level of popularity reminds his White House that goodwill can only do so much.

But that Obama remains slightly more popular than Reagan, after his first month, reminds the White House that a president can take on a lofty aura that sometimes eludes him early on. In January 1981, Reagan inherited the same unemployment rate as Obama. But Reagan conveyed in words and tone Americans indigenous optimism, as Obama still must.

Both Reagan and Obama began their presidencies with less than one in five Americans “satisfied” with the direction of the country. At the same time, today, like when Reagan first took office, eight in 10 Americans remain “satisfied with the way things are going in” their “own personal life.” Recently, the Pew Research Center found that 46 percent of Americans believe “the nation's economy will improve” in the next year. By comparison, 59 percent of Americans believe their personal finances will improve.

In other words, the people today seem more optimistic than their president. They haven't given up hope, and Obama's burden tomorrow is to demonstrate that neither has he.
David Paul Kuhn is the author of The Neglected Voter.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/02/what_happened_to_the_hopemonge.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 23, 2009, 04:01:56 pm
We now discover how much hidden damage happened under our 43rd President.  The banking failures demonstrate the folly of Dubya's demagoguery of "every family owning a home" despite low incomes. The job losses demonstrate the tendency of entities once known as manufacturers becoming importers instead.

In late February 2001 Americans continued to bask in the Indian Summer of the aftermath of the Clinton era in which government was still small (give appropriate credit to the Republican-majority Congress that kept Clinton from enacting the big programs of his dreams, of course); eight years later we reel from massive corruption and incompetence in Big Business. Government takes over failing entities -- something unnecessary except for failures. Hank Paulson and George W. Bush were firm believers in free enterprise and had no proclivities toward socialism. Reality had a socialist bias in the autumn of 2008.

Dubya was much less a reformer than a socialist; reform would have made the government takeovers of business unnecessary.   


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 23, 2009, 05:11:20 pm
We now discover how much hidden damage happened under our 43rd President.  The banking failures demonstrate the folly of Dubya's demagoguery of "every family owning a home" despite low incomes. The job losses demonstrate the tendency of entities once known as manufacturers becoming importers instead.

Uhh, I think you are confusing presidents. That was Clinton.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2009, 01:09:54 am
NYT/CBS News Poll:

63% Approve
22% Disapprove

The latest New York Times/CBS News poll is based on telephone interviews conducted Feb. 18 through Feb. 22 with 1,112 adults throughout the United States.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20090224poll-results.pdf

Washington Post/ABC News Poll:

68% Approve
25% Disapprove

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 19-22, 2009, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults including both landline and cell phone-only respondents.

http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1086a2ObamaatOneMonth.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2009, 01:26:33 am
This week we should also get fresh 15-state numbers from SUSA ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2009, 01:35:11 am
North Carolina (Civitas Institute):

65% Approve
16% Disapprove

The study of 600 registered voters was conducted Feb. 16 to 19, 2009. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4%.

http://www.wnct.com/nct/news/local/article/nc_president_obama_poll_results/32263/


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 24, 2009, 01:48:29 am
Obama should resign. It's clear that the American people have rejected his socialist, possibly Muslim, agenda.

DEMINT/CANTOR 2012


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 24, 2009, 01:57:04 am
Obama should resign. It's clear that the American people have rejected his socialist, possibly Muslim, agenda.

DEMINT/CANTOR 2012

No way a leftist Jew faggot like Cantor will be on the ticket.

DeMint/Coburn!
And just in case that doesn't work, Santorum/Limbaugh.
:)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 24, 2009, 11:00:58 am
Rasmussen Obama Approval 2/24/09:

Overall 59.5%/39.2%

GOP: 32.5%/66.8%
DEM: 86.1%/11.9%
INDY: 51.2%/47.8%

MEN: 51.6%/47.6%
WOMEN: 66.3%/31.9%

WHITE: 56.1%/43.2%
BLACK: 85.7%/8.8%
OTHER: 55.9%/43.4%


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2009, 03:22:56 pm
SurveyUSA has just released the new February polls from 14 states:

Alabama:

48% Approve (-12)
45% Disapprove (+21)

California:

63% Approve (-14)
33% Disapprove (+18)

Iowa:

63% Approve (-5)
32% Disapprove (+10)

Kansas:

54% Approve (-8)
37% Disapprove (+13)

Kentucky:

57% Approve (-5)
37% Disapprove (+12)

Massachusetts:

66% Approve (-12)
29% Disapprove (+18)

Minnesota:

62% Approve (-2)
32% Disapprove (+11)

Missouri:

51% Approve (-14)
43% Disapprove (+22)

New Mexico:

59% Approve (-6)
34% Disapprove (+12)

New York:

70% Approve (-8)
25% Disapprove (+14)

Oregon:

61% Approve (-7)
32% Disapprove (+14)

Virginia:

54% Approve (-8)
42% Disapprove (+19)

Washington:

64% Approve (-5)
32% Disapprove (+15)

Wisconsin:

60% Approve (-10)
37% Disapprove (+19)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2009, 04:54:29 pm
Obama should resign. It's clear that the American people have rejected his socialist, possibly Muslim, agenda.

DEMINT/CANTOR 2012

...

So you're being just as idiotic as the people saying he's guaranteed to lose?

We're barely a month into his Presidency, folks. It's not time for anyone to get cocky.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 24, 2009, 05:54:02 pm
Obama should resign. It's clear that the American people have rejected his socialist, possibly Muslim, agenda.

DEMINT/CANTOR 2012

...

So you're being just as idiotic as the people saying he's guaranteed to lose?

We're barely a month into his Presidency, folks. It's not time for anyone to get cocky.

When did I say he was guaranteed to win? I was just making fun of the hacks who think Obama's approvals are collapsing or that the stimulus/his economic policies are unpopular.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2009, 08:32:31 pm

When did I say he was guaranteed to win? I was just making fun of the hacks who think Obama's approvals are collapsing or that the stimulus/his economic policies are unpopular.

Well, maybe you haven't said it out right but you've implied it and haven't once corrected these ridiculous maps that have him practically sweeping the nation.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 24, 2009, 08:37:16 pm

When did I say he was guaranteed to win? I was just making fun of the hacks who think Obama's approvals are collapsing or that the stimulus/his economic policies are unpopular.

Well, maybe you haven't said it out right but you've implied it and haven't once corrected these ridiculous maps that have him practically sweeping the nation.

Anything is possible, as you so like to say. A Reagan/Nixon/LBJ-re-election-esque victory is a distinct possibility.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 24, 2009, 08:39:32 pm
It looks like Alabama is starting to remember that it's Alabama.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 24, 2009, 08:39:45 pm

When did I say he was guaranteed to win? I was just making fun of the hacks who think Obama's approvals are collapsing or that the stimulus/his economic policies are unpopular.

Well, maybe you haven't said it out right but you've implied it and haven't once corrected these ridiculous maps that have him practically sweeping the nation.

Anything is possible, as you so like to say. A Reagan/Nixon/LBJ-re-election-esque victory is a distinct possibility.

Sure it is but at the same time you say that, you laugh off the possibility of a Republican landslide. Consistency problem? Absolutely.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 26, 2009, 01:53:56 pm
For the first time in Rasmussen's Daily Tracking there are no "Undecideds" today:

60% Approve
40% Disapprove

BTW, Gallup:

65% Approve
21% Disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 26, 2009, 01:57:46 pm
Also, Texas Approval Ratings for Obama by PPP:

45% Approve
46% Disapprove

PPP polled 1,409 likely voters from February 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Texas_226.pdf

Seems to be the first poll that shows a negative rating for Obama ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 26, 2009, 02:09:20 pm
California (Public Policy Institute of California):

70% Approve
16% Disapprove

This report presents the responses of 2,502 California adult residents, including 1,453 likely
voters. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days from February 3–17, 2009.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_209MBS.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 26, 2009, 02:15:33 pm
Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall):

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

55% Excellent/Good
36% Fair/Poor

Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable or unfavorable ?

56% Favorable
23% Unfavorable

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted February 17-22, 2009. The data included in this release represent the responses of 644 adult residents of Pennsylvania. The sample error for this survey is +/- 3.9 percent.

http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/download/2009/0226/18801144.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 26, 2009, 04:01:41 pm

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.
Approval ratings just came in for Georgia, a swing state into which Obama put much effort until September (when the GOP gave a scare):

()

... and we get new numbers, if no 'new' states polled Declines, largely, but not huge ones or where one wouldn't expect them.

It looks as the GOP has its work cut out for itself if it is to achieve anything in the 2012 election. Note that Obama barely won Florida, and his approval rating in Florida approaches 70%. Right now it seems that any Republican who had to challenge Obama today for the Presidency would be the new Alf Landon... with apologies to Landon in case the personalities aren't the same.

Mercifully for the GOP, the election still isn't being held today. 


Adjustments made. Yellow indicates approval under 50%. 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 26, 2009, 07:14:02 pm
Obama has a net +10 improvement in two days, says Gallup.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Approve: 65%
Disapprove: 21%
Don't Know: 14%

Clearly, Obama should just give a fancy prime time speech every month, and he'll be popular forever.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 27, 2009, 11:20:38 am
Latest DailyKos/R2000 weekly update:

71% Favorable
25% Unfavorable

A total of 2400 adults nationally were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of calls was made into each state in the country in order to reflect the adult population nationally. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 2% percentage points.

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklytrends
http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/2/26


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 27, 2009, 11:27:49 am
Latest DailyKos/R2000 weekly update:

71% Favorable
25% Unfavorable

A total of 2400 adults nationally were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of calls was made into each state in the country in order to reflect the adult population nationally. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 2% percentage points.

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklytrends
http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/2/26

Has the RNC installed the ''Countdown to impeachment'' clock yet?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on February 27, 2009, 02:17:15 pm
Obama has a net +10 improvement in two days, says Gallup.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Approve: 65%
Disapprove: 21%
Don't Know: 14%

Clearly, Obama should just give a fancy prime time speech every month, and he'll be popular forever.
[o,g]http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/fsvxqfje20ybafiq1cltha.gif[/img]

(
Img
)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on February 27, 2009, 04:45:28 pm
This guy is so popular, it's insane.  I was reading some of the comments on his decision not to withdraw from Iraq at CNN and the same people who were praising him for opposing the war are now calling Pelosi names for disagreeing with the Chosen One.  I'm so glad now I didn't vote for this liar (I voted for Nader).


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 27, 2009, 05:15:08 pm
He's still withdrawing from Iraq.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on February 27, 2009, 05:15:20 pm
He's ending the war and its spending by August 2010 and all troops will be out by 2011, is CNN spinning this or something?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on February 27, 2009, 05:18:59 pm
Well Pelosi and other congressional leaders believe it should happen earlier, something I agree with (and something Obama based much of his campaign on as well).

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/02/27/democrats-voice-concerns-on-obamas-iraq-drawdown-plan/

As you can see most of the people making comments are saying things like "I LUUVV da PrezidenT" and are asking for Pelosi's head.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 27, 2009, 05:24:01 pm
Obama always made it clear that he would listen to the generals, and get out as carefully as we carelessly got in.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hash on February 27, 2009, 07:59:31 pm
Also, Texas Approval Ratings for Obama by PPP:

45% Approve
46% Disapprove

PPP polled 1,409 likely voters from February 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Texas_226.pdf

Seems to be the first poll that shows a negative rating for Obama ...

lol Texas.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on February 27, 2009, 08:01:48 pm
Goodness why hasn't a polling agency done Indiana yet? Who cares about the Alabama approval rating?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2009, 01:06:19 am
North Carolina (Elon University):

59% Approve
25% Disapprove

The survey was conducted Sunday, February 22nd through Thursday, February 26th of
2009. Interviews for this survey were completed with 758 adults from households in North Carolina. For a sample size of 758, there is a 95 percent probability that our survey
results are within plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/022709_ElonPollData.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Duke on February 28, 2009, 12:23:47 pm
Obama always made it clear that he would listen to the generals, and get out as carefully as we carelessly got in.

Are you seriously posting verbatim lines from Obama campaign speeches as your argument?

All Obama's Iraq plan does is abide by the SOFA signed before he ever took office.  The Iraq stuff is the least interesting news story of the month unless you've been paying literally no attention all this time.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 03, 2009, 09:55:52 am
Obama Surge !

Rasmussen - Tuesday - 03/03/2009:

60% Approve (+2)
39% Disapprove (-2)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ChrisFromNJ on March 03, 2009, 10:36:05 am
Obama Surge !

Rasmussen - Tuesday - 03/03/2009:

60% Approve (+2)
39% Disapprove (-2)

Add a few points to the Approval column simply because it's Rasmussen(R).


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 03, 2009, 01:06:06 pm
Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (Feb 27-March 1, 2009):

57% Approve
28% Disapprove
15% Undecided

http://www.cookpolitical.com/poll


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 03, 2009, 02:18:14 pm
Tennessee (MTSU poll):

53% Approve
27% Disapprove

RACIST JOKES: “Nearly one in six Tennesseans has told a joke about Barack Obama’s race, and three-fourths say they’ve heard or read at least one, even though only 15 percent of Tennesseans say they would find such a joke funny.”

http://www.mtsusurveygroup.org/mtpoll/s2009/MTSU%20Poll%20National%20Report_final.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: memphis on March 03, 2009, 02:20:55 pm
Tennessee (MTSU poll):

53% Approve
27% Disapprove

RACIST JOKES: “Nearly one in six Tennesseans has told a joke about Barack Obama’s race, and three-fourths say they’ve heard or read at least one, even though only 15 percent of Tennesseans say they would find such a joke funny.”

http://www.mtsusurveygroup.org/mtpoll/s2009/MTSU%20Poll%20National%20Report_final.pdf

Just for the heck of it (and I know I'm going to get lambasted for it) this Tennesseean will tell the racist joke he heard about Obama:

Why is Obama afraid to go to sleep?


Because the last N***a who had a dream got shot.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 03, 2009, 02:38:20 pm
That's the first one I heard too! Actually, it was my latino boyfriend who told me, and he's the biggest Obama supporter ever, so I can't really say making racist jokes about Obama means you dislike him.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 03, 2009, 09:03:08 pm
Obama Surge !

Rasmussen - Tuesday - 03/03/2009:

60% Approve (+2)
39% Disapprove (-2)

Add a few points to the Approval column simply because it's Rasmussen(R).

Right. Because so many polls have him higher than 60%. I guess you want to add a few to the NBC/WSJ poll too. What about the Cook Political Report? Why not even Gallup while you're at it? Give me a break dude. Obama is at 60%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on March 03, 2009, 10:33:39 pm
RACIST JOKES: “Nearly one in six Tennesseans has told a joke about Barack Obama’s...even though only 15 percent of Tennesseans say they would find such a joke funny.”

lol


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2009, 12:53:21 am
WSJ/NBC poll (February 26-March 1, 2009):

60% Approve
26% Disapprove
14% Undecided

68% Have positive feelings about Obama
19% Have negative feelings about Obama
13% Have neutral feelings about Obama

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/090303_NBC-WSJ_poll.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2009, 12:55:47 am
RACIST JOKES: “Nearly one in six Tennesseans has told a joke about Barack Obama’s...even though only 15 percent of Tennesseans say they would find such a joke funny.”

lol

The most hilarious thing is that "nearly one in six" and "15%" are pretty much the same number. Some misleading reporting of the numbers...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2009, 12:59:46 am
New York (Marist Poll)

68% Excellent/Good
28% Fair/Poor

This survey of 1,045 registered voters in New York State was conducted on February 25th and February 26th, 2009.  Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections.  Results are statistically significant at ±3%.  There are 480 Democrats and 314 Republicans.  Results for these subsamples are statistically significant at ±4.5% and ±5.5%, respectively.  The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/nyspolls/NY090303.htm


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 04, 2009, 01:14:02 am
Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.
Approval ratings just came in for Georgia, a swing state into which Obama put much effort until September (when the GOP gave a scare):

()

... and we get new numbers, if no 'new' states polled Declines, largely, but not huge ones or where one wouldn't expect them.

It looks as the GOP has its work cut out for itself if it is to achieve anything in the 2012 election. Note that Obama barely won Florida, and his approval rating in Florida approaches 70%. Right now it seems that any Republican who had to challenge Obama today for the Presidency would be the new Alf Landon... with apologies to Landon in case the personalities aren't the same.

Mercifully for the GOP, the election still isn't being held today. 



Adjustments made. Yellow indicates approval under 50%. 


... If Obama is above 50% in Tennessee, then that suggests that the GOP has its work cut out.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2009, 01:59:27 am
RACIST JOKES: “Nearly one in six Tennesseans has told a joke about Barack Obama’s...even though only 15 percent of Tennesseans say they would find such a joke funny.”

lol

The most hilarious thing is that "nearly one in six" and "15%" are pretty much the same number. Some misleading reporting of the numbers...

That's exactly what I was lol'ing at :P  In fact, ostensibly the "not funny" one is likely to be higher, since 15% is closer to one in seven.  But then there's rounding...

Still, funny.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Saxwsylvania on March 04, 2009, 02:04:13 am

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

... If Obama is above 50% in Tennessee, then that suggests that the GOP has its work cut out.

Dude.  It's called a honeymoon.  We're less than two months into Obama's term.  Quit being a moron.  When it's this time in 2012 and these are Obama's numbers, then you can gloat.  Until then, regard Obama's approval as mere trivia.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2009, 02:10:23 pm
New California Field Poll:

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Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on March 04, 2009, 09:26:54 pm
Texas (Rasmussen)

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/47_of_texas_voters_support_governor_s_opposition_to_stimulus_funds)

Approve 50% (37% strongly) / Disapprove 49% (40% strongly)

Dave


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2009, 01:03:55 am
Texas (Rasmussen)

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/47_of_texas_voters_support_governor_s_opposition_to_stimulus_funds)

Approve 50% (37% strongly) / Disapprove 49% (40% strongly)

Dave

Bottom Line: Obama will not win TX in 2012 ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 05, 2009, 03:55:27 am
Texas (Rasmussen)

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/47_of_texas_voters_support_governor_s_opposition_to_stimulus_funds)

Approve 50% (37% strongly) / Disapprove 49% (40% strongly)

Dave

Bottom Line: Obama will not win TX in 2012 ...

He can, but some things have to change.

The last Democratic Presidential nominee to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Bill Clinton's ideology was much like that of Jimmy Carter and was even from a neighboring State and did not win. (All right, the Arkansas/Texas border is short by Texas standards... but Hope, Arkansas is very close to the Texas/Arkansas state line.   

Should Obama win Texas, he wins it in at least an Eisenhower-scale landslide.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 05, 2009, 04:44:49 am
Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.
Approval ratings just came in for Georgia, a swing state into which Obama put much effort until September (when the GOP gave a scare):

()

... and we get new numbers, if no 'new' states polled Declines, largely, but not huge ones or where one wouldn't expect them.

It looks as the GOP has its work cut out for itself if it is to achieve anything in the 2012 election. Note that Obama barely won Florida, and his approval rating in Florida approaches 70%. Right now it seems that any Republican who had to challenge Obama today for the Presidency would be the new Alf Landon... with apologies to Landon in case the personalities aren't the same.

Mercifully for the GOP, the election still isn't being held today. 



Adjustments made. Yellow indicates approval under 50%. 


... If Obama is above 50% in Tennessee, then that suggests that the GOP has its work cut out.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on March 05, 2009, 09:13:55 am
Still stunned at no polling of Indiana. It goes Democratic for the first time in 44 years and no one polls it post-election. Honestly.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2009, 09:46:13 am
Still stunned at no polling of Indiana. It goes Democratic for the first time in 44 years and no one polls it post-election. Honestly.

If it makes you happy:

I´ve just sent E-mails to Rasmussen, PPP, R2000, SurveyUSA, Selzer & Co. and Howey Gauge with a request to poll Indiana, or if they have any plans to do so ... ;)

The problem nowadays is that with the bad economy, less newspapers are willing to commission costly polls ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2009, 09:51:18 am
Still stunned at no polling of Indiana. It goes Democratic for the first time in 44 years and no one polls it post-election. Honestly.

If it makes you happy:

I´ve just sent E-mails to Rasmussen, PPP, R2000, SurveyUSA, Selzer & Co. and Howey Gauge with a request to poll Indiana, or if they have any plans to do so ... ;)

The problem nowadays is that with the bad economy, less newspapers are willing to commission costly polls ...

Sh!t, I forgot Zogby !


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2009, 10:25:03 am
Quick response from Del Ali of Research2000:

"Probably not until June or July when either WISH-TV or the Daily Kos commissions a poll for Indiana. I think this would be an interesting poll.
 
take care - Del"

PS: With "interesting poll" he's referring to my request that they should poll Obama vs. Romney/Huckabee/Palin/Jindal for an early look on 2012 in the state, as well as Obama's approval rating in Indiana and the perceptions of IN voters on the economy.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tagimaucia on March 05, 2009, 11:45:20 am
Texas (Rasmussen)

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/47_of_texas_voters_support_governor_s_opposition_to_stimulus_funds)

Approve 50% (37% strongly) / Disapprove 49% (40% strongly)

Dave

Bottom Line: Obama will not win TX in 2012 ...

He can, but some things have to change.

The last Democratic Presidential nominee to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Bill Clinton's ideology was much like that of Jimmy Carter and was even from a neighboring State and did not win. (All right, the Arkansas/Texas border is short by Texas standards... but Hope, Arkansas is very close to the Texas/Arkansas state line.   

Should Obama win Texas, he wins it in at least an Eisenhower-scale landslide.

While I think it is relatively unlikely that Obama will win Texas in '12, that poll is far from a sign that he can't.  Historically, there has been a very very strong correlation between where an incumbent's approval rating is in relation to the 50% mark and their margin of victory/defeat.  Barring a remarkably strong or poor candidate on the other side, it's basically a referendum on the incumbent.  Bush's approval rating in exit polls in 2004 was 53%, he won by 3 points.  If you split the (somewhat large number of) undecideds evenly, Clinton's approval rating in polls right before the 96 election is almost exactly 58.5%, and he won by 8 1/2 points.  Again, I wouldn't put any money on it, but if Obama is at a high-ebb of popularity in November 2012, he certainly CAN win TX.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 05, 2009, 12:13:38 pm
Also interesting... Colorado and Arizona. Both are legitimate swing states, even if they gave near-10% margins for the winners of those states.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 05, 2009, 12:37:50 pm
Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on March 05, 2009, 01:46:59 pm
Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?

Maybe by a point or two.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2009, 02:44:17 pm
Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?

Maybe by a point or two.

That's about right I think. 65-70% Approve, 30-35% Disapprove (if the undecideds are properly allocated as well) - with Rasmussen the outlier.

Also, the latest Fox News Poll (the newest, conducted March 3-4 among 900 RV):

63% Approve (+3)
26% Disapprove (nc)

What do you think the nation's economy needs more of right now -- the economic policies of Ronald Reagan or the economic policies of Barack Obama?

Obama: 49%
Reagan: 40%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/030509_Poll.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 05, 2009, 03:11:35 pm
Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?

Maybe by a point or two.

That's about right I think. 65-70% Approve, 30-35% Disapprove (if the undecideds are properly allocated as well) - with Rasmussen the outlier.

Also, the latest Fox News Poll (the newest, conducted March 3-4 among 900 RV):

63% Approve (+3)
26% Disapprove (nc)

What do you think the nation's economy needs more of right now -- the economic policies of Ronald Reagan or the economic policies of Barack Obama?

Obama: 49%
Reagan: 40%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/030509_Poll.pdf

What about Gallup at 62%? Cook Political at 57%? NBC/WSJ at 60%? I think its more in the 60-63% range, rather than 65%-70%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2009, 03:16:18 pm
Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?

Maybe by a point or two.

That's about right I think. 65-70% Approve, 30-35% Disapprove (if the undecideds are properly allocated as well) - with Rasmussen the outlier.

Also, the latest Fox News Poll (the newest, conducted March 3-4 among 900 RV):

63% Approve (+3)
26% Disapprove (nc)

What do you think the nation's economy needs more of right now -- the economic policies of Ronald Reagan or the economic policies of Barack Obama?

Obama: 49%
Reagan: 40%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/030509_Poll.pdf

What about Gallup at 62%? Cook Political at 57%? NBC/WSJ at 60%? I think its more in the 60-63% range, rather than 65%-70%.

Those polls have all 10-25% Undecideds. In fact, no poll besides Rasmussen has ever shown Obama's disapproval higher than 29%. If you allocate the Undecides by 6/4 for Obama, you are approaching 70% Approval.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 05, 2009, 03:26:13 pm
Diaego/Hotline Poll

67% Approve


Outlier?

Maybe by a point or two.

That's about right I think. 65-70% Approve, 30-35% Disapprove (if the undecideds are properly allocated as well) - with Rasmussen the outlier.

Also, the latest Fox News Poll (the newest, conducted March 3-4 among 900 RV):

63% Approve (+3)
26% Disapprove (nc)

What do you think the nation's economy needs more of right now -- the economic policies of Ronald Reagan or the economic policies of Barack Obama?

Obama: 49%
Reagan: 40%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/030509_Poll.pdf

What about Gallup at 62%? Cook Political at 57%? NBC/WSJ at 60%? I think its more in the 60-63% range, rather than 65%-70%.

Those polls have all 10-25% Undecideds. In fact, no poll besides Rasmussen has ever shown Obama's disapproval higher than 29%. If you allocate the Undecides by 6/4 for Obama, you are approaching 70% Approval.

You can't just allocate undecideds like that. In fact, if they aren't willing to say they approve of Obama, I'm willing to bet they are more likely to disapprove of him.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 05, 2009, 03:27:26 pm
That's like saying the undecideds broke way more for McCain than Obama last November, which wasn't the case obviously.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2009, 01:12:37 am
Obama's Approval Rating in Germany, according to the monthly "Deutschlandtrend" by Infratest-dimap for the TV station ARD (1000 Germans interviewed, March 2-3):

74% Approve
2% Disapprove
24% Undecided

http://www.infratest-dimap.de/download/dt0902.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on March 06, 2009, 01:33:24 am
Obama's Approval Rating in Germany, according to the monthly "Deutschlandtrend" by Infratest-dimap for the TV station ARD (1000 Germans interviewed, March 2-3):

74% Approve
2% Disapprove
24% Undecided

http://www.infratest-dimap.de/download/dt0902.pdf

Quite impressive.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2009, 01:40:02 am
Obama's Approval Rating in Germany, according to the monthly "Deutschlandtrend" by Infratest-dimap for the TV station ARD (1000 Germans interviewed, March 2-3):

74% Approve
2% Disapprove
24% Undecided

http://www.infratest-dimap.de/download/dt0902.pdf

Quite impressive.

It's astonishing that the number of traitors (2%) is already this high.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 06, 2009, 02:17:10 am
Obama's Approval Rating in Germany, according to the monthly "Deutschlandtrend" by Infratest-dimap for the TV station ARD (1000 Germans interviewed, March 2-3):

74% Approve
2% Disapprove
24% Undecided

http://www.infratest-dimap.de/download/dt0902.pdf

Quite impressive.

It's astonishing that the number of traitors (2%) is already this high.

What's Hitler's approval rating in Germany? 2%?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 06, 2009, 01:54:22 pm
Let's remember that the superb German intelligence services stated clearly that Saddam Hussein had no WMD programs and had no connection to international terrorism before Dubya invaded Iraq. Also, George W. Bush put his hands on Chancellor Angela Merkel once, behavior best described as repugnant.

I figure that Dubya was (and remains) extremely unpopular in Germany -- and Obama has a huge reservoir of good will. 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2009, 02:09:14 pm
Minnesota (Rasmussen):

62% Approve (47% Strongly)
38% Disapprove (26% Strongly)

This state telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 3, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/61_of_minnesota_voters_don_t_think_pawlenty_should_seek_presidency_in_2012


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2009, 02:48:40 pm
New Jersey (Fairleigh Dickinson University):

66% Approve
21% Disapprove
13% Undecided

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 751 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone from Feb. 25, 2009 through March 2, 2009, and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/or/tab.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 06, 2009, 02:50:47 pm
National (Newsweek):

Approve 58%
Disapprove 26%
Undecided 16%

http://www.newsweek.com/id/188005


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on March 06, 2009, 02:51:13 pm
Minnesota (Rasmussen):

62% Approve (47% Strongly)
38% Disapprove (26% Strongly)

This state telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 3, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/61_of_minnesota_voters_don_t_think_pawlenty_should_seek_presidency_in_2012

That actually seems a little low to me.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 06, 2009, 07:21:16 pm
Zogby Approval

Approve 52%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1681


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 06, 2009, 07:37:50 pm
Zogby Approval

Approve 52%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1681

Time for Drudge to bring out the sirens.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on March 06, 2009, 09:29:08 pm
Zogby Approval

Approve 52%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1681

LOL at Zogby.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Saxwsylvania on March 07, 2009, 08:48:40 pm
Rasmussen Reports and pollster.com shows Obama's approval dipping to his lowest yet.  Unsurprisingly, this thread has been relatively quiet today.

Here is a handy-dandy chart:

(
Img
)

Obama is now less popular than Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, Bush 41, and Bush 43 at this point in their Presidencies.

Go Obama go!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 07, 2009, 08:54:19 pm
And more popular than Reagan, the one who had the largest victory of all of those people.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: RIP Robert H Bork on March 07, 2009, 09:14:43 pm
Yes I know that this is fairly old, but I decided to make a graph of Obama's approval ratings in his first month (January 20 to February 19 2009 inclusively) according to Rasmussen Reports:

(
Img
)

It shows net approval (total approve minus total disapprove), and the information was collected from http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history).

Also interesting is this article (which has a link to the previously mentioned Web page): http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll).


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 07, 2009, 09:28:15 pm
Rasmussen Reports and pollster.com shows Obama's approval dipping to his lowest yet.  Unsurprisingly, this thread has been relatively quiet today.

Here is a handy-dandy chart:

(
Img
)

Obama is now less popular than Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, Bush 41, and Bush 43 at this point in their Presidencies.

Go Obama go!

No statistical significance. One can say nothing, so one might as well remain quiet.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Saxwsylvania on March 07, 2009, 09:37:11 pm
Rasmussen Reports and pollster.com shows Obama's approval dipping to his lowest yet.  Unsurprisingly, this thread has been relatively quiet today.

Here is a handy-dandy chart:

(
Img
)

Obama is now less popular than Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, Bush 41, and Bush 43 at this point in their Presidencies.

Go Obama go!

No statistical significance. One can say nothing, so one might as well remain quiet.

What are you talking about, 'no statistical significance'?  It's inherently statistically significant because it's a statistic!

I could shut up about the whole thing.  But then, why have the thread at all?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 07, 2009, 11:25:12 pm
Rasmussen Reports and pollster.com shows Obama's approval dipping to his lowest yet. 

Obama is now less popular than Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, Bush 41, and Bush 43 at this point in their Presidencies.


No statistical significance. One can say nothing, so one might as well remain quiet.

What are you talking about, 'no statistical significance'?  It's inherently statistically significant because it's a statistic!

I could shut up about the whole thing.  But then, why have the thread at all?

I look at the curve, look at the wild scatter of data points, I look at the regression line and I find the regression line over roughly 50 days more precise than the data suggest. In effect I see no cause to believe that Obama has been gaining or losing popularity (which I think is your point), although I see significant difference in popularity at a similar time between Obama and either Ronald Reagan or John F. Kennedy.

No, I don't have the tools for an analysis of regression at my disposal now because I don't have the raw data and I don't have the computer program available for it. But I have seen plenty of random scatters, and very few of them give an exactly flat line of regression.

There is no reason to believe that the support for Obama is anything other than flat. Over time there will be more data and there will be less randomness. There is plenty of time between now and November 2012 for events and deeds to shape the regression "line".


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 08, 2009, 04:44:18 am
Zogby Approval

Approve 52%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1681

lulz


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2009, 01:57:14 pm
Connecticut (Quinnipiac University):

67% Approve
23% Disapprove
10% Undecided

From March 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,238 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1272


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 10, 2009, 02:09:33 pm
()

Counting 66% as "7" for New Jersey and now 67% as "7" for Connecticut.



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 11, 2009, 02:55:48 pm
Ipsos/McClatchy:

65% Approve
29% Disapprove

Obama's approval rating, for example, is 89 percent among Democrats and 25 percent among Republicans. Among independents, his approval rating is 58 percent.

These are some of the findings of a McClatchy-Ipsos poll conducted last Thursday through Monday. For the survey, Ipsos interviewed a nationally representative, randomly selected sample of 1,070 people 18 and older across the United States. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within 3.04 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/politics/story/63774.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 11, 2009, 03:03:59 pm
Delaware (Public Policy Polling):

63% Approve
31% Disapprove

His reviews are pretty polarized along party lines with 89% of Democrats but only 25% of Republicans expressing support for the job he’s doing. Independents are pretty much divided, with 49% giving him good marks compared to 43% who are not.

PPP surveyed 782 Delaware voters between March 5th and 8th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_DE_311.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 11, 2009, 03:15:46 pm
New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

61% Approve (D: 94%, I: 57%, R: 22%)
28% Disapprove (D: 3%, I: 28%, R: 64%)

From March 4 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,386 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1274


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 11, 2009, 03:27:05 pm
()

Counting 66% as "7" for New Jersey and now 67% as "7" for Connecticut.

Now add Delaware.




Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 11, 2009, 03:28:55 pm
()

Counting 66% as "7" for New Jersey and now 67% as "7" for Connecticut.

Now add Delaware.



NJ = 6,

11% undecided won't split 9-2 for Obama to get 70


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 12, 2009, 01:53:50 pm
Rasmussen National Approval (March 9-11):

58% Approve
41% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Rasmussen California Approval (March 9):

56% Approve (LOL !)
43% Disapprove (LOL !)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/california/toplines_california_senate_election_2010_march_9_2009

Gallup National Approval (March 9-11):

63% Approve
27% Disapprove

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2009, 12:46:49 am
Rasmussen New Jersey Approval (March 10):

59% Approve
41% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/new_jersey/toplines/toplines_new_jersey_governor_march_10_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Aizen on March 13, 2009, 12:53:54 am
California is a right-wing state


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 13, 2009, 01:16:22 pm
California actuallybeing below the national average is as likely as Wyoming voting for Obama in 2012.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 13, 2009, 02:50:25 pm
Rasmussen New York

Approve 65%
Disapprove 34%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/new_york/toplines/toplines_ny_governor_march_11_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2009, 02:55:14 pm
Rasmussen New York

Approve 65%
Disapprove 34%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/new_york/toplines/toplines_ny_governor_march_11_2009

THAT looks about right (about 5% too low).

As if there's such a big difference between CA & NY ... :P


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tagimaucia on March 14, 2009, 06:26:45 pm
Fascinating crosstabs data over time from the Research 2000/Dailykos poll (which has a significant democratic lean but is very stable)

(
Img
)

Obama is getting killed among Republicans and in the South relative to where he was at inauguration time, but any movement in most other demographics just looks like statistical noise right now.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 14, 2009, 06:31:50 pm
It's really stunning how far out of the mainstream the South has drifted.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 14, 2009, 07:57:59 pm
So in effect the cultural divide that existed on November 4, 2008 remains. It figures.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 16, 2009, 11:50:28 am
Pew Poll Obama Approval

Approve 59%(-5%)
Disapprove 26%(+9%)

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/498.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 16, 2009, 12:18:56 pm
CNN Obama Approval

Approve 64%(-3)
Disapprove 34%(+5)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/03/16/obama.poll/index.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Jimmie on March 16, 2009, 12:33:33 pm
The deluge is coming!!!!!!!!

lolz!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 16, 2009, 01:22:39 pm
(
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)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wall St. Wiz on March 16, 2009, 04:44:09 pm
Well, I guess the White House is concerned enough about the trend that they are shifting into campaign mode.  Fund raising, appearances on Leno, stops in battleground states, etc.

Just like Clinton, this will be a never-ending campaign with the objective to keep the approval ratings as high as possible.  And the dumb ass Republicans are afraid to take him on directly, allowing him to run circles around him.  They deserve to lose then.  I'm at the point that I'll support the first Republican who has the stones to go after him.  That's why Sanford is looking good at the moment.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 16, 2009, 05:37:35 pm
Well, I guess the White House is concerned enough about the trend that they are shifting into campaign mode.  Fund raising, appearances on Leno, stops in battleground states, etc.

Just like Clinton, this will be a never-ending campaign with the objective to keep the approval ratings as high as possible.  And the dumb ass Republicans are afraid to take him on directly, allowing him to run circles around him.  They deserve to lose then.  I'm at the point that I'll support the first Republican who has the stones to go after him.  That's why Sanford is looking good at the moment.

In fact the GOP largely took Obama on directly, voting against his stimulus and threatening to filibuster against it. That is standing up to Obama, even if it should prove folly a few months hence.

Dubya didn't do that? Sure. he knew enough to stay clear of places that would never vote for him. That demonstrates an awareness of his weaknesses as a campaigner.

We shall see soon enough whether standing up to Obama is political suicide or wisdom -- fewer than twenty months from now. I will be right or you will be wrong. Don't be surprised if there should be a defection or two from the GOP.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Beet on March 16, 2009, 09:46:55 pm
Obama's approvals will inevitably fall below 50%. The only question is whether it comes in June, July, August, September, etc.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on March 16, 2009, 10:16:16 pm
Obama's Approval Equal To or Better Than Bush's, Clinton's [Gallup, March 16, 2009]

Biggest change since inauguration has been decline among Republicans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116845/Obama-Approval-Equal-Better-Bush-Clinton.aspx

Mid-March Ratings

Obama (2009): 61% Approve; 28% Disapprove
Bush (2005): 58% Approve; 29% Disapprove
Clinton (1993): 53% Approve; 34% Disapprove

Obama Job Approval, By Party I/D

Republicans: 26% Approve; 63% Disapprove

Independents: 59% Approve; 26% Disapprove

Democrats: 91% Approve; 4% Disapprove

Gallup Poll Daily Tracking, March 9-15, 2009

 In sum, since his inauguration, Obama's approvals remain stratospheric among Democrats; steady among Independents but they show a marked decline among Republicans

Dave


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 17, 2009, 09:27:44 am
Texas (University of Texas, Feb. 24 - March 6, 2009):

45% Approve
42% Disapprove
13% Undecided

http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/poll/files/200903-summary.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 17, 2009, 09:42:35 am
CBS News Poll:

62% Approve
24% Disapprove
14% Undecided

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,142 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone March 12-16, 2009. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_031709_7am.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 17, 2009, 09:55:24 am
NPR Obama Approval

Approve 59%
Disapprove 35%

http://media.npr.org/documents/2009/mar/nprpoll/nprpoll_interview.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The love that set me free on March 17, 2009, 12:57:59 pm
Obama's approvals will inevitably fall below 50%. The only question is whether it comes in June, July, August, September, etc.

The more relevant question is when he gets out of it.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 17, 2009, 06:32:27 pm
Rasmussen himself gives an excellent explanation in comparing his approval poll vs. others.  I basically agree with every point made.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/comparing_approval_ratings_from_different_polling_firms


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 18, 2009, 03:14:26 pm
Rasmussen (March 15-17):

57% Approve
42% Disapprove

Gallup (March 15-17):

61% Approve
28% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling (March 13-15):

55% Approve
37% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_318.pdf

Ohio Quinnipiac (March 10-15):

57% Approve
33% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1277


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on March 18, 2009, 06:49:17 pm
Texas (University of Texas, Feb. 24 - March 6, 2009):

45% Approve
42% Disapprove
13% Undecided

http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/poll/files/200903-summary.pdf

That seems hard to believe.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 19, 2009, 12:32:15 pm
Texas (University of Texas, Feb. 24 - March 6, 2009):

45% Approve
42% Disapprove
13% Undecided

http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/poll/files/200903-summary.pdf

That seems hard to believe.

University polls are never the best.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 19, 2009, 08:33:01 pm
Arizona - Rasmussen

Approve 53%
Disapprove 47%

The numbers are in the premium crosstabs.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2009, 03:26:49 am
One more state to add:


()

Arizona, a genuine swing state.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 20, 2009, 01:58:21 pm
Rasmussen (March 17-19):

55% Approve ("That’s his lowest overall rating to date.")
43% Disapprove

Gallup (March 17-19):

62% Approve
27% Disapprove

ARG (March 16-19):

56% Approve
37% Disapprove

North Carolina - PPP - (March 17-19):

53% Approve
40% Disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 20, 2009, 02:02:40 pm
North Carolina - Elon University - (March 15-19):

61% Approve
29% Disapprove

http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/4780410/


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: BM on March 20, 2009, 03:09:52 pm
any polls that don't have him in the mid 60s are obviously bogus


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 20, 2009, 03:15:53 pm
any polls that don't have him in the mid 60s are obviously bogus

I wonder how McCain would do now ...

Mid-40s ?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 20, 2009, 04:41:26 pm
any polls that don't have him in the mid 60s are obviously bogus

I wonder how McCain would do now ...

Mid-40s ?

I'd guess around 50%. Lower than Obama anyway. And Palin would've made a good few blunders by now.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Psychic Octopus on March 20, 2009, 06:16:11 pm
any polls that don't have him in the mid 60s are obviously bogus

I wonder how McCain would do now ...

Mid-40s ?

It'd be split about 50-50.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 21, 2009, 01:53:14 pm
The gap between Rasmussen and Gallup widened today:

Rasmussen:

55% Approve (nc)
44% Disapprove (+1)

Gallup:

64% Approve (+2)
26% Disapprove (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on March 21, 2009, 02:19:49 pm
The gap between Rasmussen and Gallup widened today:

Rasmussen:

55% Approve (nc)
44% Disapprove (+1)

Gallup:

64% Approve (+2)
26% Disapprove (-1)

I'd guess Obama is probaby at about 60% right now.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 21, 2009, 02:46:44 pm
Probably because Rasmussen uses a LV screen while Gallup uses adults.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 21, 2009, 02:54:22 pm
A LV screen is ridiculous 3 and a half years before an election.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Verily on March 21, 2009, 03:11:32 pm
I don't think Rasmussen is using an LV screen. If they are, it's monumentally stupid in an off-year. LV screens are useless more than three months before an election.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 21, 2009, 03:21:55 pm
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/comparing_approval_ratings_from_different_polling_firms

Quote
Some firms poll all adults while others, including Rasmussen Reports, base their results on likely voters. Generally speaking, polls of all adults will show a somewhat higher rating for President Obama than polls of likely voters.

Why is this? Primarily because some demographic groups such as young adults are less likely to vote than others. These same groups also happen to be segments of the population where the current president gets rave reviews. So if a poll of all adults shows the president’s approval rating at 60%, you’d expect a comparable poll of likely voters to show a rating of roughly 57%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 21, 2009, 04:06:33 pm
But a registered voter poll is a million times better than an adult poll which is useless.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 21, 2009, 05:37:36 pm
But a registered voter poll is a million times better than an adult poll which is useless.

The problem is that many of them won't be around to vote in 2012, while younger people who will be able to vote by then aren't polled.
So to use registered, or even worse likely, voters screen NOW is completely useless.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 21, 2009, 06:18:34 pm
But a registered voter poll is a million times better than an adult poll which is useless.

The problem is that many of them won't be around to vote in 2012, while younger people who will be able to vote by then aren't polled.
So to use registered, or even worse likely, voters screen NOW is completely useless.

Wait, so you are saying people like Gallup are polling kids? LOL. They are polls ofadults. That means everyone is at least 18, which means that registered voters are a better gauge of a poll of a people that actually matter. If you don't vote, you don't matter.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 21, 2009, 06:35:39 pm
But a registered voter poll is a million times better than an adult poll which is useless.

The problem is that many of them won't be around to vote in 2012, while younger people who will be able to vote by then aren't polled.
So to use registered, or even worse likely, voters screen NOW is completely useless.

Wait, so you are saying people like Gallup are polling kids? LOL. They are polls ofadults. That means everyone is at least 18, which means that registered voters are a better gauge of a poll of a people that actually matter. If you don't vote, you don't matter.

No, you got it completely backwards.
I am saying that there are adults who just became (or will soon become) eligible to vote, but they haven't registered yet (something normal, we are years away from the next election).
So, these people aren't polled, even though in 2010 and 2012 they will vote, thus their opinion matters.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 22, 2009, 01:46:01 am
Rasmussen's LV screen caused it to get the election wrong in some states, typically by undercounting the likely Democratic vote. The 18-22 vote in 2008 was strongly Democratic, and it was unusually high for youth vote. If one was under 22 on November 4, 2008, then Rasmussen's LV screen (that is, those people who had voted in a the last Presidential election) ignored one. It even rejected people actively campaigning for their respective parties, and if any people vote, it is they, so long as they are of voting age.

It's a reasonable screen in most elections, but not this time.   It is made to prevent bias and reject the spin of the Democrats... but this time it is an over-response to such a concern, and that can at times be as hazardous as outright bias.

Should voters born between 1991 and 1994 act much like those born between 1987 and 1990 in the next election, then the GOP stands to be in deep trouble. 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2009, 01:49:36 am
Up once again:

Rasmussen:

56% Approve (+1)
43% Disapprove (-1)

Gallup:

65% Approve (+1)
26% Disapprove (nc)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 23, 2009, 02:27:43 am
People who don't approve of our President make baby Jesus cry. :(


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2009, 02:08:17 pm
Tennessee - Rasmussen - March 16 - 500 Likely Voters:

51% Approve
46% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/tennessee/toplines_tennessee_likely_voters_march_16_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 23, 2009, 02:14:02 pm
So TN is only 4% more anti-Obama than the nation as a whole?

Okay Rasmussen... ::)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2009, 02:14:10 pm
So, given these results, isn't Obama's national approval really closer to 62% ?

Tennessee was about 11% less Democratic than the nation.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 23, 2009, 02:18:42 pm
So TN is only 4% more anti-Obama than the nation as a whole?

Okay Rasmussen... ::)

All of Rasmussen approval polls have seemed... odd compared to polls from other firms.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2009, 02:19:09 pm
New York - Siena College - March 16-18 - 626 Registered Voters:

70% Favorable
23% Unfavorable

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/09%20March%20SNY%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2009, 02:33:01 pm
Harris Poll, March 9-16, 2.355 adults interviewed online:

55% Excellent/Good
45% Fair/Poor

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/pubs/Harris_Poll_2009_03_23.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: RIP Robert H Bork on March 23, 2009, 02:42:34 pm
Another graph, this time of Obama's second month (February 20 to March 19 inclusively), again acccording to Rasmussen Reports.

(
Img
)

Again this is net approval (total approve minus total disapprove), and the information was collected from http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history).


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 23, 2009, 06:21:27 pm
One more state to add:


()

Arizona, a genuine swing state.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2009, 01:02:33 am
CBS News, March 20-22, 949 adults:

64% Approve (+2)
20% Disapprove (-4)

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Mar09b-AIG.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2009, 01:06:19 am
"The honeymoon is over, a national poll will signal today as President Obama’s job approval stumbles to about 50 percent over the lack of improvement with the crippled economy.

Pollster John Zogby said his poll out today will show Americans split on the president’s performance. He said the score factors out to “about 50-50.”

Some polls show Obama coasting with a 65 percent job approval, but not in Zogby’s tally.

“The numbers are going down,” Zogby told the Herald. “It’s not because of the gaffes, but a combination of high expectations and that things aren’t moving fast enough with the economy.”

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view.bg?articleid=1160639


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 24, 2009, 01:28:59 am
Zogby is such a troll.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 24, 2009, 01:40:05 am
"The honeymoon is over, a national poll will signal today as President Obama’s job approval stumbles to about 50 percent over the lack of improvement with the crippled economy.

Pollster John Zogby said his poll out today will show Americans split on the president’s performance. He said the score factors out to “about 50-50.”

Some polls show Obama coasting with a 65 percent job approval, but not in Zogby’s tally.

“The numbers are going down,” Zogby told the Herald. “It’s not because of the gaffes, but a combination of high expectations and that things aren’t moving fast enough with the economy.”

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view.bg?articleid=1160639

That's good news for John McCain.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 24, 2009, 04:12:50 am
And don't forget the Bradley Effect, of course.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 24, 2009, 06:34:26 am
"The honeymoon is over, a national poll will signal today as President Obama’s job approval stumbles to about 50 percent over the lack of improvement with the crippled economy.

Pollster John Zogby said his poll out today will show Americans split on the president’s performance. He said the score factors out to “about 50-50.”

Some polls show Obama coasting with a 65 percent job approval, but not in Zogby’s tally.

“The numbers are going down,” Zogby told the Herald. “It’s not because of the gaffes, but a combination of high expectations and that things aren’t moving fast enough with the economy.”

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view.bg?articleid=1160639

Uh-oh. Drudge better get his sirens out!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 24, 2009, 10:51:20 am
(
Img
) ZOGBY: OBAMA MOST UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT SINCE GEORGE W. BUSH (
Img
)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 24, 2009, 11:27:40 am
...I shudder to think what Drudge's headline's gonna be.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 24, 2009, 12:02:56 pm
PPP Arkansas

Approve 47%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AR_3241.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2009, 02:21:56 pm
North Carolina (Civitas Poll):

64% Favorable
24% Unfavorable

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/civitas-poll-obama-perdue-enjoy-early-favorable-rating


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2009, 02:25:49 pm
(
Img
) ZOGBY: OBAMA MOST UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT SINCE GEORGE W. BUSH (
Img
)

The actual numbers are:

49% Excellent/Good
50% Fair/Poor

LOL !

Zogby International conducted an online survey of 4523 voters.

A sampling of Zogby International's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the US, was invited to participate. Slight weights were added region, party, age, race, religion, gender, education to more accurately reflect the population. The margin of error is +/- 1.5 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1686


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 24, 2009, 02:51:03 pm
(
Img
) ZOGBY: OBAMA MOST UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT SINCE GEORGE W. BUSH (
Img
)

The actual numbers are:

49% Excellent/Good
50% Fair/Poor

LOL !

Zogby International conducted an online survey of 4523 voters.

A sampling of Zogby International's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the US, was invited to participate. Slight weights were added region, party, age, race, religion, gender, education to more accurately reflect the population. The margin of error is +/- 1.5 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1686

Surely even the most far-right Republican could see that those numbers are botched.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hash on March 24, 2009, 03:49:19 pm
(
Img
) ZOGBY: OBAMA MOST UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT SINCE GEORGE W. BUSH (
Img
)

The actual numbers are:

49% Excellent/Good
50% Fair/Poor

LOL !

Zogby International conducted an online survey of 4523 voters.

A sampling of Zogby International's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the US, was invited to participate. Slight weights were added region, party, age, race, religion, gender, education to more accurately reflect the population. The margin of error is +/- 1.5 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1686

Epic fail.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 24, 2009, 09:44:05 pm
(
Img
) ZOGBY: OBAMA MOST UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT SINCE GEORGE W. BUSH (
Img
)

The actual numbers are:

49% Excellent/Good
50% Fair/Poor

LOL !

Zogby International conducted an online survey of 4523 voters.

A sampling of Zogby International's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the US, was invited to participate. Slight weights were added region, party, age, race, religion, gender, education to more accurately reflect the population. The margin of error is +/- 1.5 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1686

Surely even the most far-right Republican could see that those numbers are botched.

I don't know about that, but it is pretty obvious.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 25, 2009, 12:35:11 am
One more state to add:


()

Arkansas, roughly an even split, but a state in which Obama was crushed in 2008.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2009, 12:42:29 am
Michigan (EPIC-MRA for Detroit News-WXYZ-TV):

54% Excellent/Good
39% Fair/Poor

67% Favorable
26% Unfavorable

Michiganians also say they support Obama's policies and goals, by a margin of 64 percent to 32 percent.

Jennifer Granholm:

36% Excellent/Good
63% Fair/Poor

46% Favorable
52% Unfavorable

The poll of 600 likely Michigan voters was conducted from March 19-22. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

http://www.detnews.com/article/20090325/POLITICS/903250385/1408/LOCAL/Obama+gets+good+job+review+in+Michigan+poll


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2009, 12:49:08 am
Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall College):

59% Favorable
21% Unfavorable

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/news/cityregion/s_617671.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 25, 2009, 12:51:22 am
One more state to add:


()

Arkansas, roughly an even split, but a state in which Obama was crushed in 2008.


I'd really like to see Indiana, South Carolina and Vermont done.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2009, 01:01:41 am
Utah (Dan Jones for Deseret News):

51% Approve
43% Disapprove

(
Img
)

"Even so, only 60 percent of Salt Lake County residents approve of the job Obama is doing, Jones found in a survey conducted last week of 400 adults statewide. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent."

http://deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,705292894,00.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2009, 01:09:25 am
One more state to add:


()

Arkansas, roughly an even split, but a state in which Obama was crushed in 2008.


BTW: Why is Alabama coloured in yellow ?

SUSA had it 48-45 last time ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 25, 2009, 01:23:40 am
One more state to add:


()

Arkansas, roughly an even split, but a state in which Obama was crushed in 2008.


BTW: Why is Alabama coloured in yellow ?

SUSA had it 48-45 last time ...

The last that I saw, Alabama had a net negative rating for Obama. That deserves a different color.

...

I'd love to see analogous polls  Indiana, Montana, the Dakotas, and South Carolina: those states were close enough that some think that they will be in play in 2012.  Colorado is still out?

We will probably get Maine, Vermont, Maryland, Mississippi, Idaho, and Oklahoma instead.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2009, 01:37:26 am
One more state to add:


()

Arkansas, roughly an even split, but a state in which Obama was crushed in 2008.


BTW: Why is Alabama coloured in yellow ?

SUSA had it 48-45 last time ...

The last that I saw, Alabama had a net negative rating for Obama. That deserves a different color.

...

I'd love to see analogous polls  Indiana, Montana, the Dakotas, and South Carolina: those states were close enough that some think that they will be in play in 2012.  Colorado is still out?

We will probably get Maine, Vermont, Maryland, Mississippi, Idaho, and Oklahoma instead.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f385051a-03b2-4947-a115-65d3f82f71fc

Anyway, new March polls by SUSA will be out in the coming days, and I believe AL will move into negative territory ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on March 25, 2009, 11:35:31 am
The last that I saw, Alabama had a net negative rating for Obama. That deserves a different color.

The forum standard for maps of this kind is green for positive and red for negative.  :)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 25, 2009, 11:46:39 am
But Red is associated with Democrats (and now Obama) in this Forum.... and yellow gives an adequate contrast and is available. I can't hold anyone to my choice, but I had good reason for picking yellow. Nobody seemed to complain about the color until now.



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on March 25, 2009, 12:01:54 pm
People can differentiate red for Obama from red for disapproval, just like we did with the various maps of gubernatorial and senatorial approval maps that were made in the past.

I didn't mention this sooner because (a) I hadn't seen it; and (b) I thought Alabama was giving a tied rating.  Now I know differently, I just wanted to point it out to you so other people won't make a similar mistake. :)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 25, 2009, 01:17:35 pm
Pennsylvania (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1280)
The Quinnipiac University Poll
3/19-3/23/2009; 1,056 registered voters, +/- 3% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Barack Obama Job Rating
All voters: 61% approve, 30% disapprove
(Feb 2009: 63% approve, 22% disapprove)



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 25, 2009, 09:50:40 pm


()

Survey USA gives Obama a small net positive rating in Alabama. Thus the color change!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Psychic Octopus on March 25, 2009, 10:23:41 pm
Did anyone watch O' Reilly in Late October? I remember one of Zogby's polls was being publicized because it said more Americans like McCain better on the economy then Obama. Then, they had Dick Morris on, and he infamously said: "The tide is turning. This is just the tip of the iceberg." LOL. Hilarious. Zogby is SO horrible.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 26, 2009, 12:01:29 am
Did anyone watch O' Reilly in Late October? I remember one of Zogby's polls was being publicized because it said more Americans like McCain better on the economy then Obama. Then, they had Dick Morris on, and he infamously said: "The tide is turning. This is just the tip of the iceberg." LOL. Hilarious. Zogby is SO horrible.

The Propaganda Channel (FoX "News") isn't a reliable source. It spins everything as its ownership wants news to be spun -- and we all know what that means. If it doesn't get the news that it likes it creates the news. It deliberately conflates its analysis with objective reporting, and its selection of talking heads is one of choosing the appropriate lapdogs (for Dubya) and attack dogs (for Clinton and Obama). When a guest fails to take the Party Line FoX "News" turns on the guest, calling the fellow a nut, a member of the Far Left, or un-American.

Does anyone remember the Valerie Plame scandal? As other media were examining it, FoX "News" diverted people with the wall-to-wall coverage of the disappearance of Natalee Holloway in Aruba. I'm not going to trivialize the disappearance (and likely death) of a pretty girl from the right side of the tracks (or an ugly one from the wrong side), but I knew that as soon as FoX "News" started a story in Aruba there was news to be had elsewhere.

Add to this, a survey of Americans on news sources and their correlation to being right on the Iraq war asked people to agree or disagree with three statements involving the war:

1. Saddam Hussein had connections to such international terror groups as al-Qaeda.

2. Saddam Hussein possessed or tried to procure or develop weapons of mass destruction despite sanctions imposed by the United Nations.

3. The rest of the world generally concurs with the American invasion of Iraq.

All three statements are demonstrably false.

Then they were asked what news sources they replied on.  It is hardly surprising that those who depended upon newspapers (printed or electronic) were most likely to get all three answers right.  Radio sources were next-best, NPR listeners getting the best marks. Regular viewers of CNN and MSNBC were slightly poorer, but generally well-informed. Viewers of PBS' News Hour with Jim Lehrer did about as well as NPR radio listeners... but that's no-fluff news and it does not make compromises for attention spans. 

Those who relied upon the news of the nightly news  three main networks (CBS, ABC, and NBC) were highly likely to get it wrong. It's just not possible to get all of one's news from 30 minutes of televised news that fits a commercial format.

Now here's the tragedy -- regular viewers of FoX News Channel got it most regularly -- WRONG! Its viewers watch much of what looks like news...  but somehow isn't.

Oddly, those who relied on Comedy Central's Daily Show got it right about as well as NPR listeners. That's a comedy program!

(Whatever virtues regular viewers of FoX "News", being well-informed isn't one of them).

It uses the US flag extensively as if acceptance of its disinformation at face value were an act of patriotism.

That entity is more adept at propaganda than Pravda ever was.

 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2009, 01:18:51 am
SurveyUSA March 2009 Release (all conducted March 20-22 among 600 adults):

Alabama:

47% Approve (-1)
47% Disapprove (+2)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1042b5f1-c12e-43e1-8dad-cd1c644903e3

California:

67% Approve (+4)
28% Disapprove (-5)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c6eaaf21-aa2b-4f1b-83ac-50563d5bc60c

Iowa:

57% Approve (-6)
40% Disapprove (+8)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e79ed495-b7ab-414e-b851-17be9c2b39d7

Kansas:

55% Approve (+1)
40% Disapprove (+3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=14750682-5826-481c-a4e4-f6ed11910ca8

Kentucky:

56% Approve (-1)
38% Disapprove (+1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=06788390-97c9-4604-adb0-d121c387690e

Massachusetts:

68% Approve (+2)
26% Disapprove (-3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=dd2c51d3-a7f3-4d98-afaf-293d9b4ca26a

Minnesota:

61% Approve (-1)
32% Disapprove (nc)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=daff7ebe-0483-464b-b259-4f3989dddc6b

Missouri:

57% Approve (+6)
39% Disapprove (-4)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=77dfc060-a0ce-4bcb-b16c-33ca3cea4cf9

New Mexico:

61% Approve (+2)
35% Disapprove (+1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=abafb949-e911-48ac-acac-6d99b6f87523

New York:

72% Approve (+2)
23% Disapprove (-2)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=564b22a9-49c5-46bd-894d-bcc297f27923

Oregon:

62% Approve (+1)
31% Disapprove (-1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=146a9814-db58-4923-ae31-dd251a944a3a

Virginia:

55% Approve (+1)
35% Disapprove (-7)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=052effc4-d100-4392-a920-43b1f646d876

Washington:

62% Approve (-2)
34% Disapprove (+2)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a7421118-21b0-44b1-adf4-831673fb3a1d

Wisconsin:

53% Approve (-7)
42% Disapprove (+5)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0b21a806-01a4-45e8-8d6c-ab64982d89f7


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2009, 01:32:14 am
Hillary Clinton (Secretary of State) - CNN/Opinion Research, March 12-15:

71% Approve
23% Disapprove

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2009/03/clinton_has_rob.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2009, 01:38:00 am
Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall College):

59% Favorable
21% Unfavorable

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/news/cityregion/s_617671.html

PS:

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

60% Excellent/Good (+5)
36% Fair/Poor (nc)

http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/download/2009/0325/19009605.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2009, 01:43:14 am
California - Public Policy Institute of CA:

Adults:

71% Approve
20% Disapprove

Registered Voters:

67% Approve
23% Disapprove

Likely Voters:

63% Approve
28% Disapprove

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, March 2009. Includes 2,004 adults, 1,525 registered voters, and 987 likely voters. Interviews took place March 10–17, 2009. Numbers in above table are for all adults. Margin of error ±2%.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0309.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2009, 01:46:04 am
Texas (Texas Tech):

44% Approve
39% Disapprove

http://lubbockonline.com/stories/032609/loc_414533490.shtml


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 26, 2009, 08:14:40 am
I live in Obamaworld. lolz.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 26, 2009, 10:36:00 am
DC APPROVAL POLL PLZ.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 26, 2009, 10:55:27 am
So he goes up in some states in SUSA but down in other states, and I really can't see any connection between the states either. Random.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 26, 2009, 11:11:18 am
Hillary Clinton (Secretary of State) - CNN/Opinion Research, March 12-15:

71% Approve
23% Disapprove

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2009/03/clinton_has_rob.html

I would've thought Hillary's approval would be closer to Obama's than that.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 26, 2009, 11:12:43 am
Quote
Iowa:

57% Approve (-6)
40% Disapprove (+8)

Huh? Why has Iowa dropped so much?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 26, 2009, 11:53:17 am
Quote
Iowa:

57% Approve (-6)
40% Disapprove (+8)

Huh? Why has Iowa dropped so much?

Like I said, some of these are just really random, like Missouri went way up. You'd think it would be the opposite since you know, he lost the state. I have no idea why Iowa is dropping that much in a state he won by 10 points.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2009, 01:39:14 pm
Connecticut (Research 2000):

69% Favorable
22% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Connecticut Poll was conducted from March 23 through March 25, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/3/25/CT/275


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on March 26, 2009, 01:52:43 pm
Quote
Iowa:

57% Approve (-6)
40% Disapprove (+8)

Huh? Why has Iowa dropped so much?

Like I said, some of these are just really random, like Missouri went way up. You'd think it would be the opposite since you know, he lost the state. I have no idea why Iowa is dropping that much in a state he won by 10 points.

SUSA really isn't a good enough pollster to put so much stock in movements like those.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 27, 2009, 01:31:52 am
Quote
Iowa:

57% Approve (-6)
40% Disapprove (+8)

Huh? Why has Iowa dropped so much?

Like I said, some of these are just really random, like Missouri went way up. You'd think it would be the opposite since you know, he lost the state. I have no idea why Iowa is dropping that much in a state he won by 10 points.

SUSA really isn't a good enough pollster to put so much stock in movements like those.

Iowa and Wisconsin are really odd, also Kentucky on the other hand.

Wisconsin went from 70% to 53% in 2 months ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 27, 2009, 09:03:41 am
()

Wisconsin and Iowa would seem very similar. Until they see real campaigning they don't seem very partisan. People there start making up their minds when the campaigning gets serious; until then they want leaders to govern. It's just as well.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 29, 2009, 08:18:17 am
Slight uptick for Obama on Rasmussen today:

58% Approve (+2)
41% Disapprove (-2)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 29, 2009, 09:31:01 am
Rasmussen bump seems to be only coming from Republicans(up to 29%) so I assume it is just a bad sample, as Obama is still under 50% with Indies.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: BM on March 29, 2009, 01:05:20 pm
Gallup's at 60/31 today, probably the closest it's ever been to Rasmussen.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 30, 2009, 08:02:29 am
South Carolina (Crantford & Associates, March 17, 1.382 voters, MoE=2.6%):

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?

Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 44%
Not Sure: 7%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Sanford?

Favorable: 40%
Unfavorable: 53%
Not Sure: 7%

Do you agree or disagree with Governor Sanford's efforts to try and stop President Obama's economic stimulus package from being spent in South Carolina?

Agree: 37%
Disagree: 53%
Not Sure: 10%

http://www.thestate.com/politics/story/721273.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 30, 2009, 08:33:47 am
Rasmussen bump seems to be only coming from Republicans(up to 29%) so I assume it is just a bad sample, as Obama is still under 50% with Indies.

58-40 (nc, -1) today


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 30, 2009, 08:34:48 am
South Carolina (Crantford & Associates, March 17, 1.382 voters, MoE=2.6%)

Iiiinteresting numbers.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 30, 2009, 08:42:30 am
South Carolina (Crantford & Associates, March 17, 1.382 voters, MoE=2.6%)

Iiiinteresting numbers.

Yeah, but unfortunately done for the SC Democratic Senate Caucus ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 30, 2009, 01:53:42 pm
New USAToday/Gallup poll (March 27-29):

64% Approve
30% Disapprove

Gallup Daily Tracking (also March 27-29):

60% Approve (nc)
30% Disapprove (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 30, 2009, 02:41:27 pm
()

Now add South Carolina, where Obama has more approval than does the Governor, someone supposedly having a chance to be a Presidential or VP nominee.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 30, 2009, 11:59:01 pm
New Washington Post/ABC News poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president ?

66% Approve
29% Disapprove

Changing topics, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Michelle Obama ?

76% Favorable
16% Unfavorable

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Mar. 26-29, 2009, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults including landline and cell phone-only respondents. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_033109.html?hpid=topnews


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tagimaucia on March 31, 2009, 07:45:30 am
from the same poll:

3. Do you think things in this country (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)?

                Right     Wrong     No
              direction   track   opinion 
3/29/09          42        57        1
2/22/09          31        67        2
1/16/09          19        78        3
12/14/08         15        82        3
10/25/08 LV      13        85        2
10/11/08 RV       8        90        2


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 31, 2009, 08:33:19 am
Obama taking the "steering wheel" and axing capitalist failures is probably not a bad thing for his polling numbers.

Rasmussen today:

59% Approve (+1)
39% Disapprove (-1)

First time below 40% since March 4 ...

38% Strongly Approve (nc)
27% Strongly Disapprove (-3)

"That’s the first time his Approval Index rating has reached double digits since the first week in March."

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Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 31, 2009, 10:09:15 am
Obama taking the "steering wheel" and axing capitalist failures is probably not a bad thing for his polling numbers.

Rasmussen today:

59% Approve (+1)
39% Disapprove (-1)

First time below 40% since March 4 ...

38% Strongly Approve (nc)
27% Strongly Disapprove (-3)

"That’s the first time his Approval Index rating has reached double digits since the first week in March."

(
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)

It's because he is now at 32% among Republicans after being in the low 20's for the past month. Hard to tell if this is lasting change or just an outlier.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 31, 2009, 12:14:57 pm
Gallup Down:

Approve 59(-1)
Disapprove 30(nc)

Seems to me that Rasmussen must have a clear outlier if these two have the same approval as Gallup has been traditionally a few points higher than Rasmussen.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 31, 2009, 01:34:49 pm
Gallup Down:

Approve 59(-1)
Disapprove 30(nc)

Seems to me that Rasmussen must have a clear outlier if these two have the same approval as Gallup has been traditionally a few points higher than Rasmussen.

First Gallup under 60? :/


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 31, 2009, 01:50:17 pm
First Gallup under 60? :/

No, it happened once before, in Mid-February I think ...

......................................................................................

Diageo Hotline (March 26-29, 800 Registered Voters):

63% Approve
31% Disapprove

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/FDDiageoHotlinePoll_release033109.pdf

Democracy Corps (March 25-29, 1000 Likely Voters):

58% Approve
34% Disapprove

http://www.democracycorps.com/download.php?attachment=dc10032909fq4.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 02, 2009, 12:01:02 am
Now add South Carolina, where Obama has more approval than does the Governor, someone supposedly having a chance to be a Presidential or VP nominee.

SurveyUSA now supports the Crantford & Associates poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Sanford is doing as Governor?

41% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fa7fe67e-60d1-4167-999c-fc2f6dbda8cd

Not so hot numbers for the "great Republican rising star in 2012" ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 02, 2009, 01:02:39 am
Now add South Carolina, where Obama has more approval than does the Governor, someone supposedly having a chance to be a Presidential or VP nominee.

SurveyUSA now supports the Crantford & Associates poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Sanford is doing as Governor?

41% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fa7fe67e-60d1-4167-999c-fc2f6dbda8cd

Not so hot numbers for the "great Republican rising star in 2012" ...

The first stage of ruin is DENIAL.

... I don't have a drinking problem; I can quit drinking at any time.

... Cancer? Not me!

... This pitcher with a high ERA or batter now hitting .240 is on the brink of pulling out of a slump.

... I can still make the minimum payment.

... I don't need no book-learnin'. I'll show that teacher yet!

... The President will yet make a fool of himself.



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 02, 2009, 02:05:40 am
Now add South Carolina, where Obama has more approval than does the Governor, someone supposedly having a chance to be a Presidential or VP nominee.

SurveyUSA now supports the Crantford & Associates poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Sanford is doing as Governor?

41% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fa7fe67e-60d1-4167-999c-fc2f6dbda8cd

Not so hot numbers for the "great Republican rising star in 2012" ...

Wow! The citizens of South Carolina who suffer through a recession actually prefer help from the federal goverment, rather than political grandstanding from their governor.

Knock me down with a feather. 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on April 02, 2009, 09:08:34 am
So who's willing to bet the Democrats won't run anyone serious and the next governor of South Carolina will be Sanford 2.0?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 02, 2009, 10:01:27 am
Obama taking the "steering wheel" and axing capitalist failures is probably not a bad thing for his polling numbers.

Rasmussen today:

59% Approve (+1)
39% Disapprove (-1)

First time below 40% since March 4 ...

38% Strongly Approve (nc)
27% Strongly Disapprove (-3)

"That’s the first time his Approval Index rating has reached double digits since the first week in March."

(
Img
)

It's because he is now at 32% among Republicans after being in the low 20's for the past month. Hard to tell if this is lasting change or just an outlier.

Seemingly, an outlier given the shift from March 31 to April 2:

Approve 56% (-3); Disapprove 44% (+5) [Strongly approve 35% (-3); Strongly Disapprove 30% (+3)

Dave


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 02, 2009, 11:02:20 am
Remember too, that Rasmussen's new April partisan targets will undoubtedly shift the numbers a bit, and I believe today's sample was the first sample with the new targets (even though it could have been yesterday):

Dems 38.7% (40.8%)
Reps 33.2% (33.6%)
Indys 28.1% (25.6%)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 02, 2009, 11:16:03 am
Remember too, that Rasmussen's new April partisan targets will undoubtedly shift the numbers a bit, and I believe today's sample was the first sample with the new targets (even though it could have been yesterday):

Dems 38.7% (40.8%)
Reps 33.2% (33.6%)
Indys 28.1% (25.6%)

"Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 40.1% Democrats, 33.1% Republicans, and 26.7% unaffiliated."

He uses the average of the previous three months, not just the preceding month.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 02, 2009, 11:18:41 am
Remember too, that Rasmussen's new April partisan targets will undoubtedly shift the numbers a bit, and I believe today's sample was the first sample with the new targets (even though it could have been yesterday):

Dems 38.7% (40.8%)
Reps 33.2% (33.6%)
Indys 28.1% (25.6%)

"Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 40.1% Democrats, 33.1% Republicans, and 26.7% unaffiliated."

He uses the average of the previous three months, not just the preceding month.

Sorry, I wasn't being clear there.  Still, it will affect the underlying numbers, somewhat.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 02, 2009, 12:37:10 pm
Connecticut (Quinnipiac University):

71% Approve (+4)
22% Disapprove (-1)

From March 26 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,181 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1283


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 02, 2009, 12:44:27 pm
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics:

58% Approve (-5)
32% Disapprove (+6)

Polling was conducted by telephone March 31 - April 1, 2009, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/040209_FNCPoll.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 02, 2009, 01:34:12 pm
South Dakota (Research 2000/DailyKos):

47% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 South Dakota Poll was conducted from March 30 through April 1, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/4/1/SD/280


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 02, 2009, 04:20:07 pm
South Dakota (Research 2000/DailyKos):

47% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 South Dakota Poll was conducted from March 30 through April 1, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/4/1/SD/280

I've just seen this on DKos now, i'm pretty suprised that Obama only have a net +2 in South Dakota. I know it went to McCain by +10 points, but still.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 02, 2009, 10:56:43 pm

()

Now add South Dakota, with 3EV. 

The biggest states in electoral votes for which there are no polls are Maryland, Indiana, Colorado, Louisiana, and Oklahoma.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2009, 12:05:02 am
The biggest states in electoral votes for which there are no polls are Maryland, Indiana, Colorado, Louisiana, and Oklahoma.

Well, actually there was a Maryland poll, but it was conducted January 5-9, before Obama was sworn in as President.

The results from this Gonzales Research survey:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President-elect Barack Obama is handling his transition?

80% Approve
11% Disapprove

http://www.garesearch.com/Surveys/Maryland_Media_Poll_January_2009.htm


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 03, 2009, 12:25:33 am
The biggest states in electoral votes for which there are no polls are Maryland, Indiana, Colorado, Louisiana, and Oklahoma.

Well, actually there was a Maryland poll, but it was conducted January 5-9, before Obama was sworn in as President.

The results from this Gonzales Research survey:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President-elect Barack Obama is handling his transition?

80% Approve
11% Disapprove

http://www.garesearch.com/Surveys/Maryland_Media_Poll_January_2009.htm

()

That's what an 80% approval rating looks like in Maryland. Of course I figure that Maryland would be about 70%, and I don't qualify as a pollster. But I still have to go with this:

()

What people predict about the baseball season around April Fool's Day will mean nothing during the World Series.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2009, 12:33:23 am
Obama's Approval Rating in Germany, according to the monthly ARD Deutschland-Trend by Infratest-dimap (conducted March 30-31, among 1.000 Germans, MoE=3%):

80% Approve
6% Disapprove

(
Img
)

"With Obama as President, the US is on the right way again":

89% Yes

"I´m happy that Obama visits Germany":

82% Yes

"With Obama as President, the US is a country that we can trust":

78% Yes

"Obama's first months in office have surprised me in a positive way":

72% Yes

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend592.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 03, 2009, 09:28:46 am


"With Obama as President, the US is on the right way again":

89% Yes

"I´m happy that Obama visits Germany":

82% Yes

"With Obama as President, the US is a country that we can trust":

78% Yes

"Obama's first months in office have surprised me in a positive way":

72% Yes

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend592.html

"Would you want Obama to father your daughter's child?"

94% Yes

"Do you approve of Obama's blond hair and blue eyes?"

88% Yes


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 03, 2009, 12:50:26 pm
I doubt Hitler's approval ratings were ever as high as Obama's. The most the Nazi Party ever got was like 44%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rob on April 03, 2009, 01:35:21 pm
Germans are gullible people.  Remember, these are the people that elected Hitler.

Yep, and German-Americans voted overwhelmingly for Willkie and Dewey to protest the war against Germany. Kind of sad and scary at the same time.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 03, 2009, 04:10:58 pm
I doubt Hitler's approval ratings were ever as high as Obama's. The most the Nazi Party ever got was like 44%.

Hitler's approvals at the peak of his popularity, 1935-6, were probably well into the upper 80s. Not that anybody polled, of course.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 03, 2009, 04:13:35 pm


"With Obama as President, the US is on the right way again":

89% Yes

"I´m happy that Obama visits Germany":

82% Yes

"With Obama as President, the US is a country that we can trust":

78% Yes

"Obama's first months in office have surprised me in a positive way":

72% Yes

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend592.html

"Would you want Obama to father your daughter's child?"

94% Yes

"Do you approve of Obama's blond hair and blue eyes?"

88% Yes

Germans are gullible people.  Remember, these are the people that elected Hitler.

They aren't so gullible as they were seventy years ago. They aren't the psychological primitives that Sigmund Freud exposed -- the sorts of people who couldn't recognize what a fraud Hitler was -- anymore. They are no longer the people that one can most lead with a manual that might as well have been titled "How to control people through deception and misplaced pride" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mein_Kampf).  

I'd be more scared of the Germans if they admired Dubya and loathed Obama. Wouldn't you?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 03, 2009, 04:25:07 pm


"With Obama as President, the US is on the right way again":

89% Yes

"I´m happy that Obama visits Germany":

82% Yes

"With Obama as President, the US is a country that we can trust":

78% Yes

"Obama's first months in office have surprised me in a positive way":

72% Yes

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend592.html

"Would you want Obama to father your daughter's child?"

94% Yes

"Do you approve of Obama's blond hair and blue eyes?"

88% Yes

Germans are gullible people.  Remember, these are the people that elected Hitler.

I'd be more scared of the Germans if they admired Dubya and loathed Obama. Wouldn't you?

Most definitely!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 03, 2009, 04:32:47 pm
From the same poll

"I had hoped for more from Obama" 12% say yes
"Obama's policies are the same as Bush's" 7% say yes.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 03, 2009, 04:53:51 pm
I'd be more scared of the Germans if they admired Dubya and loathed Obama. Wouldn't you?

There are people like that.
They are called Israelis.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hash on April 03, 2009, 05:06:52 pm
I'd be more scared of the Germans if they admired Dubya and loathed Obama. Wouldn't you?

There are people like that.
They are called Israelis.

Don't worry, px75.  I don't like Jews either.

Fitting.

Get in contact with Robert Stark.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 03, 2009, 05:18:17 pm
I'd be more scared of the Germans if they admired Dubya and loathed Obama. Wouldn't you?

There are people like that.
They are called Israelis.

Don't worry, px75.  I don't like Jews either.

American Jews voted heavily for Obama. What's wrong with Judaism, anyway?

(No, I am not Jewish, but I certainly respect Jews for their achievements and their comparatively-few pathologies. For one thing, Jews never persecuted my Quaker, Huguenot, Mennonite, or Moravian ancestors. For another, they were the white people most likely to support the Civil Rights Movement and did not participate in segregationist politics.

I'm not black, either, by the way).


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 03, 2009, 05:24:59 pm
I'd be more scared of the Germans if they admired Dubya and loathed Obama. Wouldn't you?

There are people like that.
They are called Israelis.

Don't worry, px75.  I don't like Jews either.

I said Israelis dickhead. Not Jews.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 03, 2009, 05:31:03 pm
I don’t think Rasmussen can poll Hispanics very well. He has Obama at 28/72 approval among them. LOL


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 03, 2009, 05:37:23 pm
I don’t think Rasmussen can poll Hispanics very well. He has Obama at 28/72 approval among them. LOL

Haha, seriously? If so, the poll is kind of useless...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Boris on April 03, 2009, 06:15:32 pm
I don’t think Rasmussen can poll Hispanics very well. He has Obama at 28/72 approval among them. LOL

maybe they accidentally reversed the numbers


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: War on Want on April 03, 2009, 10:55:58 pm
Germans are gullible people.  Remember, these are the people that elected Hitler.

Yep, and German-Americans voted overwhelmingly for Willkie and Dewey to protest the war against Germany. Kind of sad and scary at the same time.
They also were for the Union and voted for LaFollete. ;)

But yeah mostly I dislike German-American political views.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 04, 2009, 12:13:06 am
Germans are gullible people.  Remember, these are the people that elected Hitler.

Yeah, it's only the nazi (http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,616499,00.html)-loving Germans (http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,617015,00.html) that approve of Obama by 9-1.

And not the Italian, the French, the British or Spanish or even the fascist Canadians ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 04, 2009, 12:24:21 am
Arizona (WestGroup Research, never heard of it ...):

41% Approve
29% Disapprove

The poll has a 5 percent margin of error.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2009/03/30/daily77.html

Newsweek/Princeton Research (April 1-2):

61% Approve
27% Disapprove

http://www.newsweek.com/id/192311


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hash on April 04, 2009, 07:57:22 am
the fascist Canadians ...

38% voted for a quasi-far-right party in 2008.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 04, 2009, 12:05:46 pm
Gallup's back up to 63-27, after 59-30 a few days ago.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 04, 2009, 12:13:45 pm
Gallup's back up to 63-27, after 59-30 a few days ago.

Hardly a surprise. Even the Republicans, of the non-Michelle-Bachmann variety, admit that his European trip has been a success until now.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 04, 2009, 03:58:50 pm
Gallup's back up to 63-27, after 59-30 a few days ago.

Hardly a surprise. Even the Republicans, of the non-Michelle-Bachmann variety, admit that his European trip has been a success until now.

Except for the part where he blames America for everything.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 04, 2009, 04:15:48 pm
Gallup's back up to 63-27, after 59-30 a few days ago.

Hardly a surprise. Even the Republicans, of the non-Michelle-Bachmann variety, admit that his European trip has been a success until now.

Except for the part where he blames America for everything.

Your clock is about 20 years behind.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 04, 2009, 04:18:14 pm
Gallup's back up to 63-27, after 59-30 a few days ago.

Hardly a surprise. Even the Republicans, of the non-Michelle-Bachmann variety, admit that his European trip has been a success until now.

Except for the part where he blames America for everything.

Your clock is about 20 years behind.

I DARE him to come back on American soil and call America "arrogant." Let's see what kind of reaction he would get. He'd be lucky not to get a shoe thrown at him. Instead he plays right into the hands of the Anti-American Europeans.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 04, 2009, 04:28:13 pm
Gallup's back up to 63-27, after 59-30 a few days ago.

Hardly a surprise. Even the Republicans, of the non-Michelle-Bachmann variety, admit that his European trip has been a success until now.

Except for the part where he blames America for everything.

Your clock is about 20 years behind.

I DARE him to come back on American soil and call America "arrogant." Let's see what kind of reaction he would get. He'd be lucky not to get a shoe thrown at him. Instead he plays right into the hands of the Anti-American Europeans.

Arrogant is too mild a word to describe George W. Bush's America.

If you want to live into a fantasy world where your country invades a sovereign nation under false pretenses, ignores and belittles its allies and precipitates the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and yet you admire it, then be my guest.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 04, 2009, 04:30:05 pm
Gallup's back up to 63-27, after 59-30 a few days ago.

Hardly a surprise. Even the Republicans, of the non-Michelle-Bachmann variety, admit that his European trip has been a success until now.

Except for the part where he blames America for everything.

Your clock is about 20 years behind.

I DARE him to come back on American soil and call America "arrogant." Let's see what kind of reaction he would get. He'd be lucky not to get a shoe thrown at him. Instead he plays right into the hands of the Anti-American Europeans.

Arrogant is too mild a word to describe George W. Bush's America.

If you want to live into a fantasy world where your country invades a sovereign nation under false pretenses, ignores and belittles its allies and precipitates the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and yet you admire it, then be my guest.

Oh you're part of the blame America first crowd too. Good to know.

And yes, I do admire my country. I live in the greatest country on Earth.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 04, 2009, 04:50:00 pm
Oh you're part of the blame America first crowd too. Good to know.

And yes, I do admire my country. I live in the greatest country on Earth.

How is your crowd called? Delusional, flag waving, ultra-nationalist defenders of ''Manifest Destiny''?
Or perhaps the ''White Resentment Appreciation Association''?

Grow up man! The 80's are over and Ronald Reagan is still dead.
And I hate to break it to you, but the greatest country on earth is owed by China. So get used to some ass kissing.
 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 04, 2009, 04:57:52 pm
Oh you're part of the blame America first crowd too. Good to know.

And yes, I do admire my country. I live in the greatest country on Earth.

How is your crowd called? Delusional, flag waving, ultra-nationalist defenders of ''Manifest Destiny''?
Or perhaps the ''White Resentment Appreciation Association''?

Grow up man! The 80's are over and Ronald Reagan is still dead.
And I hate to break it to you, but the greatest country on earth is owed by China. So get used to some ass kissing.
 
:o


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: RIP Robert H Bork on April 04, 2009, 05:58:07 pm
Oh you're part of the blame America first crowd too. Good to know.

And yes, I do admire my country. I live in the greatest country on Earth.

How is your crowd called? Delusional, flag waving, ultra-nationalist defenders of ''Manifest Destiny''?
Or perhaps the ''White Resentment Appreciation Association''?

Grow up man! The 80's are over and Ronald Reagan is still dead.
And I hate to break it to you, but the greatest country on earth is owed by China. So get used to some ass kissing.
 
:o

Why are you surprised?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rob on April 04, 2009, 06:03:12 pm
Oh you're part of the blame America first crowd too. Good to know.

And yes, I do admire my country. I live in the greatest country on Earth.

How is your crowd called? Delusional, flag waving, ultra-nationalist defenders of ''Manifest Destiny''?
Or perhaps the ''White Resentment Appreciation Association''?

Grow up man! The 80's are over and Ronald Reagan is still dead.
And I hate to break it to you, but the greatest country on earth is owed by China. So get used to some ass kissing.
 
:o

Too soon?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 04, 2009, 07:25:13 pm
Gallup's back up to 63-27, after 59-30 a few days ago.

Hardly a surprise. Even the Republicans, of the non-Michelle-Bachmann variety, admit that his European trip has been a success until now.

Except for the part where he blames America for everything.

Your clock is about 20 years behind.

I DARE him to come back on American soil and call America "arrogant." Let's see what kind of reaction he would get. He'd be lucky not to get a shoe thrown at him. Instead he plays right into the hands of the Anti-American Europeans.

Alot have only became anti-American because of George W Bush. I don't know about the rest of Europe, but here in the UK, generally, there's been more respect for America since November 4th.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bernietards Don't Understand Polling on April 04, 2009, 10:41:01 pm
Only America would elect George W. There is just a special breed of people here who simply cannot stand the thought of their president being more intelligent than they are.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 05, 2009, 05:39:44 am
Iowa (Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.):

(
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)

The poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines, included telephone interviews with 802 Iowans age 18 and older. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20090405/NEWS09/904050334/1001/NEWS


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on April 05, 2009, 02:14:38 pm
And yes, I do admire my country. I live in the greatest country on Earth.

That doesn't mean you cannot criticize America.  I'm certainly not member of the "Blame America first crowd" (partly because it doesn't exist); America has made a lot of mistakes, especially in the way it has handled the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  It is foolish to think that America is infallible, because it isn't.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 06, 2009, 08:33:30 am
Rasmussen:

58% Approve (+2)
41% Disapprove (-2)

New York (Quinnipiac):

71% Approve
21% Disapprove

From April 1- 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,528 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1284


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 06, 2009, 12:45:01 pm
Kentucky(PPP)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_406.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 06, 2009, 02:49:38 pm
Kentucky(PPP)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_406.pdf

New map:

()

Did anyone expect Kentucky to give Obama a strong positive approval rating indefinitely?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 06, 2009, 03:13:52 pm
Hasn't there been any polls from Indiana?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 06, 2009, 05:51:14 pm
Hasn't there been any polls from Indiana?

... or Colorado, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, or Oklahoma


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on April 06, 2009, 06:35:24 pm
I'm more interested in Idaho, Wyoming and Nebraska.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 07, 2009, 12:16:11 am
Kentucky(PPP)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_406.pdf

While the crosstabs of this poll look very weird (young voters strongly disapprove of Obama, olds approve), I think the overall approval is more accurate for KY than what SUSA showed a week ago.

...

New York Times/CBS poll:

66% Approve
24% Disapprove

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 998 adults nationwide, interviewed by
telephone April 1-5, 2009.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_040609.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 07, 2009, 05:18:11 am
New International Herald Tribune/Harris Interactive poll:

Do you have a very good/somewhat good or somewhat poor/very poor opinion of Barack Obama ?

France: 86% Good, 3% Poor (+83)

Italy: 86% Good, 5% Poor (+81)

Germany: 85% Good, 5% Poor (+80)

Spain: 84% Good, 6% Poor (+78)

UK: 72% Good, 10% Poor (+62)

USA: 68% Good, 23% Poor (+45)

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/world/2009/07iht-poll.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on April 07, 2009, 07:23:49 am
Obama should stop campaigning for president of the world. ::)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 07, 2009, 08:57:13 am
UK: 72% Good, 10% Poor (+62)

I know that's really high, but I really think it should be higher for the UK.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 07, 2009, 09:20:30 am
Kentucky(PPP)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_406.pdf

While the crosstabs of this poll look very weird (young voters strongly disapprove of Obama, olds approve), I think the overall approval is more accurate for KY than what SUSA showed a week ago.

...

New York Times/CBS poll:

66% Approve
24% Disapprove

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 998 adults nationwide, interviewed by
telephone April 1-5, 2009.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_040609.pdf

I love the D+16 partisan split in this poll.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 07, 2009, 01:25:13 pm
Kentucky(PPP)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_406.pdf

While the crosstabs of this poll look very weird (young voters strongly disapprove of Obama, olds approve), I think the overall approval is more accurate for KY than what SUSA showed a week ago.

...

New York Times/CBS poll:

66% Approve
24% Disapprove

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 998 adults nationwide, interviewed by
telephone April 1-5, 2009.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_040609.pdf

I love the D+16 partisan split in this poll.

It's an adult poll, so it shouldn't be that surprising or far off from reality (more minorities, more non-citizens, more youngster, therefore the sample is more Democratic).

Even if you adjust it for 2008 Exit poll data, his numbers are at 63-27 ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Nym90 on April 08, 2009, 11:55:18 am
New International Herald Tribune/Harris Interactive poll:

Italy: 86% Good, 5% Poor (+81)

Phil can't be too pleased about those numbers. :)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 08, 2009, 12:02:49 pm
Latest CNN Poll (1023 Adults, April 3-5):

66% Approve
30% Disapprove

Latest Pew Poll (1506 Adults, March 31-April 6):

61% Approve
26% Disapprove

Latest Rasmussen Tracking (1500 Likely Voters, April 5-7):

57% Approve
42% Disapprove

Latest Gallup Tracking (1500 Adults, April 5-7):

60% Approve
28% Disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 08, 2009, 12:27:11 pm
Marist Poll (928 Registered Voters, April 1-3):

56% Approve
30% Disapprove

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us090401/Obama/Obama%20Approval%20Rating.htm


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 08, 2009, 01:05:37 pm
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

He seems to have gotten some sort of EURO TRIP bump. That, or his approvals are stabilizing around 60%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 08, 2009, 02:40:04 pm
Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 08, 2009, 02:56:25 pm
Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 08, 2009, 02:57:58 pm
Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats better than CBSNews 66% crap.

Rasmussen deflates it's numbers alot by using a ridiculous "likely voters" screen. We're three and ahalf years from the next Presidential election and a year and ahalf from a Congressional election, so there's no point to something like that.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 08, 2009, 03:01:46 pm
New International Herald Tribune/Harris Interactive poll:

Italy: 86% Good, 5% Poor (+81)

Phil can't be too pleased about those numbers. :)

Oh, boy. The same country that adores Berlusconi. They just love their celebrities.

Italy is consistently one of Obama's "best countries," by the way. It's also one of the most right wing countries in all of Europe. Does that smell funny to anyone else?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 08, 2009, 03:37:52 pm
Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.

Rasmussen got it right in 2000 and 2004. But his "likely voters" screen would have rejected as a "likely voter" someone under 22 who was actively involved in a campaign because that person had never voted in a Presidential election.  That screen proved unduly rigid in 2008. Obama wasn't Kerry, and 2008 was very different from 2004.

Although the young adult vote is capricious it is capricious in odd ways.   


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 08, 2009, 03:39:13 pm
Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.

Rasmussen got it right in 2000 and 2004. But his "likely voters" screen would have rejected as a "likely voter" someone under 22 who was actively involved in a campaign because that person had never voted in a Presidential election.  That screen proved unduly rigid in 2008. Obama wasn't Kerry, and 2008 was very different from 2004.

Although the young adult vote is capricious it is capricious in odd ways.   

Uhh, Rasmussen nailed it in 2008.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on April 08, 2009, 03:43:01 pm
what's a likely voter right now anyway?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 08, 2009, 03:44:44 pm
I have to agree that "likely voters" aren't a factor at this point.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 08, 2009, 03:46:08 pm
what's a likely voter right now anyway?

Someone likely to vote. :)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on April 08, 2009, 03:52:23 pm
what's a likely voter right now anyway?

Someone likely to vote. :)

in the last election or in 2012?  And Rasmussen lacks the magic powers necessary to come up with any kind of reasonable voter model four years before an election occurs


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 08, 2009, 03:54:25 pm
what's a likely voter right now anyway?

Someone likely to vote. :)

in the last election or in 2012?  And Rasmussen lacks the magic powers necessary to come up with any kind of reasonable voter model four years before an election occurs

Don't underestimate Scotty. Who knows what his LV screen is.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 08, 2009, 04:01:46 pm
Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.

Rasmussen got it right in 2000 and 2004. But his "likely voters" screen would have rejected as a "likely voter" someone under 22 who was actively involved in a campaign because that person had never voted in a Presidential election.  That screen proved unduly rigid in 2008. Obama wasn't Kerry, and 2008 was very different from 2004.

Although the young adult vote is capricious it is capricious in odd ways.   

Uhh, Rasmussen nailed it in 2008.

No...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 08, 2009, 04:07:24 pm
Why does Rasmussen like being idiots? 57% approval? Likely voters? I liked them during the campaign but now they're just being ridiculous.

Also, why hasn't any polling organization polled one of the closest states of the election and a state that went Democrat for the first time in 44 years yet!!!!

Whats wrong with a 57% approval? Thats more realistic than CBSNews and CNN 66% crap.

Rasmussen got it right in 2000 and 2004. But his "likely voters" screen would have rejected as a "likely voter" someone under 22 who was actively involved in a campaign because that person had never voted in a Presidential election.  That screen proved unduly rigid in 2008. Obama wasn't Kerry, and 2008 was very different from 2004.

Although the young adult vote is capricious it is capricious in odd ways.   

Uhh, Rasmussen nailed it in 2008.

No...

No? He had 52-46, the final result was 53-46.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on April 08, 2009, 04:09:41 pm
one of the biggest critiques of Rasmussen is that he uses far too tight LV screens way out before it's remotely possible to determine who the LV's are.  you should at least acknowledge this criticism if you are going to assert his superiority over other polls for an election four years away


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 08, 2009, 04:12:08 pm
one of the biggest critiques of Rasmussen is that he uses far too tight LV screens way out before it's remotely possible to determine who the LV's are.  you should at least acknowledge this criticism if you are going to assert his superiority over other polls for an election four years away

I am no way saying that his poll is perfect right now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that at all. My personal preference would be for registered voters polls. But to say he didn't nail the final result in 2008, is just ignoring the facts.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on April 08, 2009, 04:17:18 pm
fair enough, he's a very credible pollster, especially with a few like Gallup wildly missing the need to have a more conservative voter turnout model in 2008


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on April 08, 2009, 04:24:16 pm
one of the biggest critiques of Rasmussen is that he uses far too tight LV screens way out before it's remotely possible to determine who the LV's are.  you should at least acknowledge this criticism if you are going to assert his superiority over other polls for an election four years away

I am no way saying that his poll is perfect right now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that at all. My personal preference would be for registered voters polls. But to say he didn't nail the final result in 2008, is just ignoring the facts.

But you do need to give more concession to LV screens.  One of the major components of a quality LV screen is "how much attention are you paying to this election?"  Such a screen becomes event-sensitive at a time like now, and for instance bailout critics are more likely to identify as "paying close attention" right now than supporters.  If such a screen isn't used, this test falls back on past electoral participation -- a useful variable, but one that inevitably biases Republican at this time in the cycle.

Rasmussen is a reputable pollster.  I'd hardly dismiss his LV screen, even very early, as a measurement of likelihood to be politically educated.  But there is no such thing as a "likely voter" screen three years before an election.  A "likely voter" three years before the election is not hard to screen, but like I said, you're not going to get a representative sample.

By the way, not to criticize results-oriented analysis, but a Zogby could nail final results.  Even if someone nailed three elections in a row, they shouldn't be granted unquestioned credibility unless they can rationally explain their methodology.  Rassy can, but I'm saying, "nailed it" is not the end-all.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 08, 2009, 06:09:44 pm
His final nation poll was good, yes, but his state polls were pretty mediocre.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on April 08, 2009, 06:11:31 pm
His final nation poll was good, yes, but his state polls were pretty mediocre.

not really relevant if we're talking about a current national poll


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Smash255 on April 09, 2009, 12:38:33 am
His final nation poll was good, yes, but his state polls were pretty mediocre.

not really relevant if we're talking about a current national poll

I'm not 100% sure, but I believe his polls leading into the election were a bit more GOP friendly.  He got it close at the very end, but a week or so out IIRC he was a bit off, though I don't remember exactly what he had.

One other thing to mention is when a President is popular he seems to have lower approvals than everyone else and when a President isn't popular his numbers seem to be better than everyone else.  Rasmussen tended to be the pollster where Bush had the highest approvals (the last several years) and where Obama has had his worst numbers.  Hard to say if that has to do with the way its asked (Strongly, somewhat approve/disapprove), a more GOP lean, or the LV screen, but the fact Rasmussen was Bush's best pollster & Obama's worst is interesting nonetheless.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 09, 2009, 12:47:56 am
His final nation poll was good, yes, but his state polls were pretty mediocre.

not really relevant if we're talking about a current national poll

Maybe. I mean, I don't know that the methodology behind a state poll and a national poll is that different. I assume a national poll is just like polling a very large state, but I may be wrong. On election day, 2008, (or the days leading up to it, at least), Rasmussen released a number of finals polls, of which the national poll was only one out of what, 10 or 20? Can a pollster be much better at national polls than he is at state polls? Was his national poll's accuracy a fluke? I don't know.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 09, 2009, 01:13:53 am
I think the upcoming immigration debate will cost him a few points (~5%) as well ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bernietards Don't Understand Polling on April 09, 2009, 01:23:49 am
Just have to stay above 55%. No way we can lose as long as we keep that goal in place.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 09, 2009, 01:46:44 am
I think the upcoming immigration debate will cost him a few points (~5%) as well ...

Losing a few points temporarily, but possibly locking in the Democratic camp the fastest-growing minority group. That sounds a pretty fair deal.
Carl Rove was no dummy when he insisted that Bush and the Republicans MUST pass immigration reform in order to remain relevant in the future.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 09, 2009, 12:28:50 pm
Rasmussen and Gallup are both down today, 55-44 vs. 59-29.

New Jersey (FDU, 809 RV, March 30-April 5):

66% Approve
22% Disapprove

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/aig/tab.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 09, 2009, 12:54:05 pm
Folks, the Rasmussen national poll for 2008 would have been pretty much *dead on the money* had he adjusted his sample for higher black turnout.  His moving weight party ID was pretty much dead-on, as I recall.

Now, I have issues with Rasmussen national polling *at this moment*, in that I can't figure how you determine what a "likely voter" is when we're a couple of year away from a major election.  But his record on the national poll level cannot be poo-pooed.

At the state-wide level, as I have noted in my "state poll review" thread, I am pretty convinced that the reason certain pollsters fared the best in 2008 was because of loose LV screens.  That would explain why a number of questionable college pollsters did well and why Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon didn't (for example).  Now, this is something to keep in mind, especially for 2012, but I wouldn't expect the same event to happen in 2010.

Anyway, I view this whole thread as kind of mundane.  Obama's approval is around 60% right now (+/- 3% - I lean more towards the minus), with roughly around 35%-40% loving him, 20% thinking he's doing ok and 30% hating his guts.  The 10% who show up as neutral probably would vote against him if he were running today, but don't expect that to translate into activity down-ballot for now.  If and when those 10% move to hating his guts or the 20% start questioning or turning against him whole hog, then it will translate downballot.  But that's not happening now. 

Lastly, if and when his approval has any type of major movement one way or the other, we'll know.  Be patient.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 15, 2009, 09:52:05 pm
Georgia-SurveyUSA

Approve 54%
Disapprove 40%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a96fd956-46f4-49e8-b3d5-c8abb3d47a0e


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on April 15, 2009, 10:02:14 pm
Just have to stay above 55%. No way we can lose as long as we keep that goal in place.

According to the prophet Nate Silver, Obama needs a 65% approval rating in Nov 2010 for the Democrats to avoid losing congressional seats.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 15, 2009, 10:18:38 pm
New map:

()

Obama is still above 50% in Georgia... That's still trouble for the GOP. Big trouble!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 15, 2009, 11:37:07 pm
Minnesota (PPP, April 14-15):

60% Approve
30% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MN_415.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 16, 2009, 05:07:30 pm
Virginia- Rasmussen

Approve 56%
Disapprove 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_april_15_2009

Illinois- Rasmussen

Approve 67%
Disapprove 33%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/illinois/toplines/toplines_illinois_april_14_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 16, 2009, 05:54:55 pm
0% of people in Virginia have no opinion or are undecided about Obama?

Okay Scott...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 16, 2009, 08:34:15 pm
0% of people in Virginia have no opinion or are undecided about Obama?

Okay Scott...

He gives the "somewhat" option that other pollsters don't. This draws more people into giving some type of opinion.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2009, 11:51:49 pm
North Carolina (PPP):

54% Approve
38% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 979 North Carolina voters from April 8th to 11th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_416.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2009, 12:03:08 am
South Dakota (Dakota Wesleyan University):

62% Approve
29% Disapprove

Respondents who identified themselves as Democrats approved of Obama at a rate of 83 percent, while the approval rating from self-identified Republicans was 41 percent and the rating from self-identified independents was 61 percent.

DWU’s new poll results are based on telephone interviews with 413 South Dakotans conducted by students and faculty between March 23 and April 6. The poll’s theoretical margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percent for the statewide sample, with a confidence level of 95 percent.

http://www.dwu.edu/press/2009/apr16.htm


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2009, 12:07:01 am
Florida (Quinnipiac):

60% Approve
32% Disapprove

63% Favorable
30% Unfavorable

From April 6 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,332 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 570 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points and 474 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1287


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2009, 12:29:05 am
Cook Political Report/RT Strategies:

60% Approve
30% Disapprove

In a hypothetical 2012 presidential general election match-up, 50 percent said that they would definitely or probably vote for Barack Obama again (32 percent definitely, 18 percent probably) while 39 percent indicated that they would definitely or probably vote against him (26 percent definitely, 13 percent probably).

Conducted April 8-11 among 833 RV, MoE=3.4%

http://www.cookpolitical.com/poll


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2009, 04:43:39 am
Map update:

()

South Dakota approval rating 62%? South Dakota went decisively for John McCain in 2008.



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on April 17, 2009, 07:51:05 am
Who knows. Maybe an outlier, maybe a political shift!? :P


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 17, 2009, 09:42:56 am
Who knows. Maybe an outlier, maybe a political shift!? :P

Or a junk uni poll.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 17, 2009, 09:43:25 am
Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Nhoj on April 17, 2009, 09:57:08 am
Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009
now there's a poll that seems accurate.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 17, 2009, 10:28:01 am
Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009

Bring on the declaration of secession!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 17, 2009, 10:37:28 am
Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009

Oh well, they're gonna seceed anyway, apparently.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 17, 2009, 11:07:22 am
DKos/Research 2000
Obama Favourable/Unfavourable: 69%/27%

April 13-16, 2009
MOE 2%

http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/16 (http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/16)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2009, 12:58:04 pm
Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009

Not too bad, given that Rasmussen has Obama @ 55% nationally (-7).

But Obama got a 9-10% lower share in TX on Election Day.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2009, 01:00:22 pm
Latest Czech Republic Obama approval rating:

85% Approve
13% Disapprove

Poll conducted by STEM between April 1-6 among 1297 people aged 18+.

http://www.stem.cz/clanek/1790


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 18, 2009, 12:28:07 am
Map update:

()

Yellow is for larger disapproval than approval.

What can you expect of a State that voted for Rick Perry?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ottermax on April 18, 2009, 12:48:29 am
I wonder what his approval rating in Hawaii is when you compound the native son and incumbency factors?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on April 18, 2009, 04:23:44 am
DKos/Research 2000
Obama Favourable/Unfavourable: 69%/27%

April 13-16, 2009
MOE 2%

http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/16 (http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/16)

Not buying that one.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on April 18, 2009, 09:03:05 am
Texas- Rasmussen

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_april_16_2009

Not too bad, given that Rasmussen has Obama @ 55% nationally (-7).

But Obama got a 9-10% lower share in TX on Election Day.

They giving Obama a 48 percent approvol Is not bad for him in Texas.From how Perry Is talking you would think It would be 38 percent approval.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 18, 2009, 09:22:01 am
DKos/Research 2000
Obama Favourable/Unfavourable: 69%/27%

April 13-16, 2009
MOE 2%

http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/16 (http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/16)

Not buying that one.

That one is pretty questionable, but I suppose you can still disapprove of the job Obama is doing, but still find him "favourable".


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Verily on April 18, 2009, 09:23:51 am
DKos/Research 2000
Obama Favourable/Unfavourable: 69%/27%

April 13-16, 2009
MOE 2%

http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/16 (http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/16)

Not buying that one.

That one is pretty questionable, but I suppose you can still disapprove of the job Obama is doing, but still find him "favourable".

It's not actually questionable at all. Favorable numbers are always about 10% above approval numbers until you start getting really, really unpopular. Now, Kos is reporting favorable numbers instead of approval numbers because they look better and most people don't know the difference, so in that sense it's dishonest. But the numbers aren't a lie.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 20, 2009, 12:44:25 pm
New York (Siena Poll):

75% Favorable
19% Unfavorable

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/09%20April%20SNY%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 20, 2009, 05:54:03 pm
New York (Siena Poll):

75% Favorable
19% Unfavorable

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/09%20April%20SNY%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

That's how we do it.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 21, 2009, 12:51:53 am

()

In case someone wants to see what an 80% approval rating looks like in a substantial state if one rounds up 75% to 80%.

It looks like an outlier, so back to what I really think it is (round 75% down to 70%):

()

75% is hard to get even as an outlier even for a Democrat in New York State.





Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 21, 2009, 09:52:33 am
Massachusetts- Rasmussen

Approve 58%
Disapprove 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/massachusetts/toplines/toplines_massachusetts_likely_voters_april_16_2009

Cue the Rasmussen bashing in 3, 2, 1...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Nhoj on April 21, 2009, 10:02:54 am
Massachusetts- Rasmussen

Approve 58%
Disapprove 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/massachusetts/toplines/toplines_massachusetts_likely_voters_april_16_2009

Cue the Rasmussen bashing in 3, 2, 1...
ok will do crap poll.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 21, 2009, 11:02:18 am
Colorado- PPP

Approve 49%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_421.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 21, 2009, 12:52:52 pm
Colorado- PPP

Approve 49%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_421.pdf

That seems pretty strange. It makes me interested in seeing some more polls out of Colorado.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 21, 2009, 01:22:35 pm
Map update:

()

When you want a Colorado poll and you get it, you don't have cause to carp about it being something other than what you like.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 21, 2009, 01:53:29 pm
How dare those Colorado voters not like the Messiah! Junk poll!!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr.Phips on April 21, 2009, 02:00:58 pm
How dare those Colorado voters not like the Messiah! Junk poll!!

If they dont like him then they shouldnt have voted for him in November.  They knew exactly what they were getting and if they didnt like it then they could have voted for McCain and help put him in the White House.  The attitude these days of voting for somebody and then deciding they dont like them is just shameful.  They knew what they were getting. 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on April 21, 2009, 02:37:17 pm
Don't be sad when Obama wins Massachusetts >62% in 2012.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2009, 02:51:13 pm
Massachusetts- Rasmussen

Approve 58%

Lol, that made me laugh.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 21, 2009, 02:57:11 pm
Colorado- PPP

Approve 49%
Disapprove 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_421.pdf

That seems pretty strange. It makes me interested in seeing some more polls out of Colorado.

The numbers for Mark Udall are even stranger. He is in negative territory (41%-46% ), even though he hasn't done anything controversial, not to mention it's just a few months since he was sworn in.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on April 21, 2009, 03:18:49 pm
Don't be shocked if the Democrat's approvals don't remain sky high forever. Remember, the Republicans had a lot of negative approvals for congressional candidates who had done nothing controversial as well. If Obama is not particularly popular in Colorado, then it's no surprise that the Democratic senator is running behind him.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 21, 2009, 03:24:11 pm
Hmmm, I wasn't expecting Colorado to be so low. I know it's only one poll, but judging by it, Republicans will at least have a shot to win it back in 2012.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on April 21, 2009, 03:31:52 pm
You should not base 2012 predictions on polls that are 44 months out. These are just for fun. Your posts will only get bumped in the future and laughed at.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 21, 2009, 03:33:03 pm
You should not base 2012 predictions on polls that are 44 months out. These are just for fun. Your posts will only get bumped in the future and laughed at.

He said "a shot." He didn't say that Obama would lose Colorado.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 21, 2009, 03:38:37 pm
You should not base 2012 predictions on polls that are 44 months out. These are just for fun. Your posts will only get bumped in the future and laughed at.

I'm not stupid. If you look at my post, I said "I know it's only one poll" and "a shot". I'm not making an predictions. I'm just going off this one poll, which I obviously know is premature. Honestly though, if the election was today, I know Colorado would vote for Obama. But if the Colorado ratings are this much lower than the national ratings, we could have a good chance, even if Obama has a 50% approval rating nationwide.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 21, 2009, 03:43:46 pm
Don't be shocked if the Democrat's approvals don't remain sky high forever. Remember, the Republicans had a lot of negative approvals for congressional candidates who had done nothing controversial as well. If Obama is not particularly popular in Colorado, then it's no surprise that the Democratic senator is running behind him.

The Republican candidates were dragged down by Bush's horrible numbers and a tarnished party brand. And even then it took a while for their numbers to go south. 
That doesn't apply here. Obama still has a positive rating and the Democratic party has consistently high ratings. And of course Udall just got elected rather comfortably.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on April 21, 2009, 06:42:06 pm
The sample for the Colorado poll was 38% Republican and 36% Democratic, which is probably why the results are so weird.  There's no way it's representative of the state's population if we take into account how they voted in November or the fact that registered Democrats exceed the number of registered Republicans.




Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 21, 2009, 06:52:11 pm
You should not base 2012 predictions on polls that are 44 months out. These are just for fun. Your posts will only get bumped in the future and laughed at.

Of course. Four months before Election Day, 2008 the Presidency entailed a very close race. Sarah Palin showed herself a fool and the economy melted down, and it's merciful for the GOP that the election of 2008 didn't happen later. The polls are at best snapshots of sentiment in a place at given time. Example: there were times in which McCain was ahead of Obama or when Obama was ahead of McCain in Alaska.

The "Tea Party"  activities gave free publicity to the GOP and right-wing interests. A pundit on the Propaganda Channel (FoX "News") just played it up as the beginning of the end for Obama's Presidency. The Republican candidate of  2012 be obliged to offer an alternative to Barack Obama in 2012. A mealy-mouthed stealth candidate won't win; neither will a nut.

Many thought Michael Dukakis a shoo-in in the summer of 1988.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 21, 2009, 06:54:45 pm
New Jersey- Strategic Vision
Approve 58%
Disapprove 35%

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_042209.htm


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 21, 2009, 11:56:45 pm
The sample for the Colorado poll was 38% Republican and 36% Democratic, which is probably why the results are so weird.  There's no way it's representative of the state's population if we take into account how they voted in November or the fact that registered Democrats exceed the number of registered Republicans.

No, more Republicans than Democrats voted in Colorado last year. The only difference is that Obama won Independents by 10, but is now tied in this poll. He also gets a record low approval from Republicans somehow (17%), allthough other polls show his support among Republicans nationwide at between 25-35%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 21, 2009, 11:57:57 pm
Georgia (Strategic Vision):

55% Approve
39% Disapprove

The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted April 17-19, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_042209.htm



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 22, 2009, 12:10:06 am
For what it's worth, PPP has been showing pretty low approvals for Obama. They were also one of the more accurate pollsters last year. So, I'm not sure what to think.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 22, 2009, 12:38:03 am
Hard to believe that Obama is more popular in Georgia than in Colorado.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2009, 12:42:45 am
Obama might experience softer approval ratings from hard-core liberals these days, after coddling the CIA torturers and not prosecuting former members of the vicious and murderous Bush junta. Many of them could move to "undecided" now, pushing down his high approvals in states like Jersey and Massachusetts.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 22, 2009, 06:15:21 am
Obama might experience softer approval ratings from hard-core liberals these days, after coddling the CIA torturers and not prosecuting former members of the vicious and murderous Bush junta. Many of them could move to "undecided" now, pushing down his high approvals in states like Jersey and Massachusetts.

Imaginable -- but should there be indictments of people of low morals formerly in high places, then that would really scare the Right.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ?????????? on April 22, 2009, 09:00:27 am
Obama might experience softer approval ratings from hard-core liberals these days, after coddling the CIA torturers and not prosecuting former members of the vicious and murderous Bush junta. Many of them could move to "undecided" now, pushing down his high approvals in states like Jersey and Massachusetts.

Is this a joke post?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 22, 2009, 09:05:15 am
I think the major difference in approval ratings and why they are lower for Rasmussen and PPP is that they both use IVR while most other pollsters still use live callers.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 22, 2009, 10:34:22 am
I think the major difference in approval ratings and why they are lower for Rasmussen and PPP is that they both use IVR while most other pollsters still use live callers.

It's the most logical explanation I can come up with - especially with the higher disapprovals.  I also believe PPP uses *voters*, which translates to me to mean RV.  Any type of voters vs. adults comparison would undoubtedly show higher disapprovals.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Franzl on April 22, 2009, 12:21:45 pm
Obama might experience softer approval ratings from hard-core liberals these days, after coddling the CIA torturers and not prosecuting former members of the vicious and murderous Bush junta. Many of them could move to "undecided" now, pushing down his high approvals in states like Jersey and Massachusetts.

zufällig im Heurigen gewesen heute? ;)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2009, 01:04:00 pm
Is this a joke post?

No, 100% my opinion.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Jimmie on April 22, 2009, 01:04:53 pm
Obama might experience softer approval ratings from hard-core liberals these days, after coddling the CIA torturers and not prosecuting former members of the vicious and murderous Bush junta. Many of them could move to "undecided" now, pushing down his high approvals in states like Jersey and Massachusetts.

zufällig im Heurigen gewesen heute? ;)

You know/learned a lot of what?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2009, 01:05:42 pm
New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

67% Approve (+6)
24% Disapprove (-4)

From April 14 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,222 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points. The survey includes 486 Republican likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points, and 460 Democratic likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1288


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2009, 01:07:58 pm
Obama might experience softer approval ratings from hard-core liberals these days, after coddling the CIA torturers and not prosecuting former members of the vicious and murderous Bush junta. Many of them could move to "undecided" now, pushing down his high approvals in states like Jersey and Massachusetts.

zufällig im Heurigen gewesen heute? ;)

You know/learned a lot of what?


Franzl asked if I was in a (wine) bar in the morning, but forgot to metion that Heurige only exist in Eastern Austria, not Salzburg ... :P


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Franzl on April 22, 2009, 01:13:44 pm
Obama might experience softer approval ratings from hard-core liberals these days, after coddling the CIA torturers and not prosecuting former members of the vicious and murderous Bush junta. Many of them could move to "undecided" now, pushing down his high approvals in states like Jersey and Massachusetts.

zufällig im Heurigen gewesen heute? ;)

You know/learned a lot of what?


Franzl asked if I was in a (wine) bar in the morning, but forgot to metion that Heurige only exist in Eastern Austria, not Salzburg ... :P

yeah well....I've not been to many other places but Vienna in Austria :)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Jimmie on April 22, 2009, 01:14:15 pm
I strongly approve of Obama.



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2009, 01:40:26 pm
ARGHHH ! also has a new poll out:

Adults:

57% Approve
38% Disapprove

Registered Voters:

58% Approve
37% Disapprove

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 22, 2009, 01:54:48 pm
Quote
Adults:

57% Approve
38% Disapprove

Registered Voters:

58% Approve
37% Disapprove

lol


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 23, 2009, 10:52:01 am
PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen??????


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 23, 2009, 11:13:13 am
PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen??????

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 23, 2009, 11:18:15 am
PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen??????

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.

Weren't Democrats criticizing AP late in the 2008 presidential race when it showed Obama only up by 2 points?

Now they are great!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 23, 2009, 11:25:05 am
PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen??????

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.

Weren't Democrats criticizing AP late in the 2008 presidential race when it showed Obama only up by 2 points?

Now they are great!

Who are ''the Democrats''?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 23, 2009, 11:26:02 am
PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen??????

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.

Weren't Democrats criticizing AP late in the 2008 presidential race when it showed Obama only up by 2 points?

Now they are great!

Who are ''the Democrats''?


Obamabots.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 23, 2009, 11:31:56 am
PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen??????

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.

Weren't Democrats criticizing AP late in the 2008 presidential race when it showed Obama only up by 2 points?

Now they are great!

Who are ''the Democrats''?


Obamabots.

Go ask them.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 23, 2009, 01:43:47 pm
I strongly approve of Obama.



jamespol approval rating: OMG 100%!!!11


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 23, 2009, 03:08:28 pm
PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen??????

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.

Weren't Democrats criticizing AP late in the 2008 presidential race when it showed Obama only up by 2 points?

A poll for an election is different to a poll for approval though.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 23, 2009, 03:12:05 pm
PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen??????

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.

Weren't Democrats criticizing AP late in the 2008 presidential race when it showed Obama only up by 2 points?

A poll for an election is different to a poll for approval though.

Translation: When it shows what I want it's a good pollster, when it doesn't, it's trash.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Duke on April 23, 2009, 09:06:27 pm
Isn;t the PPP poll registered voters?  Rassmusen is likely voters and they Obama in the 60s.  The Gallup and AP polls are all adults.

Isn't the unreported story on these approval ratings that Obama's numbers among people who are paying attention are mediocre and his numbers among people who get their news by reading the cover of Us Weekly in the supermarket checkout are high?

Shouldn't we start saying that PPP and Rasmussen are the canary in the coal mine?  That they are outliers because they measure a different, and more relevant, universe of people than the AP and Gallup polls?  And that their sample is telling us where things are headed?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: War on Want on April 23, 2009, 09:22:24 pm
Isn;t the PPP poll registered voters?  Rassmusen is likely voters and they Obama in the 60s.  The Gallup and AP polls are all adults.

Isn't the unreported story on these approval ratings that Obama's numbers among people who are paying attention are mediocre and his numbers among people who get their news by reading the cover of Us Weekly in the supermarket checkout are high?

Shouldn't we start saying that PPP and Rasmussen are the canary in the coal mine?  That they are outliers because they measure a different, and more relevant, universe of people than the AP and Gallup polls?  And that their sample is telling us where things are headed?
If you go to Rasmussen though and read most of their polls it is the "political class" that approves of Obama's actions and policies. Their views also tend to be more liberal. If you are trying to put forth the idea that Democrats are idiots and Republicans are not doing it right.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 23, 2009, 10:11:32 pm
Isn;t the PPP poll registered voters?  Rassmusen is likely voters and they Obama in the 60s.  The Gallup and AP polls are all adults.

Isn't the unreported story on these approval ratings that Obama's numbers among people who are paying attention are mediocre and his numbers among people who get their news by reading the cover of Us Weekly in the supermarket checkout are high?

Shouldn't we start saying that PPP and Rasmussen are the canary in the coal mine?  That they are outliers because they measure a different, and more relevant, universe of people than the AP and Gallup polls?  And that their sample is telling us where things are headed?

Trying to poll "likely voters" in an off-year is just a bad idea.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Smash255 on April 23, 2009, 10:16:33 pm
PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen??????

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.

Weren't Democrats criticizing AP late in the 2008 presidential race when it showed Obama only up by 2 points?

A poll for an election is different to a poll for approval though.

Translation: When it shows what I want it's a good pollster, when it doesn't, it's trash.

Ehh its more along the lines of looking at the consensus.......   The AP poll from October was called out because it showed results far different from virtually every other pollster, which is the same reason why PPP is being called out now.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 23, 2009, 11:45:54 pm
Isn't the PPP poll registered voters?  Rasmussen is likely voters and they Obama in the 60s.  The Gallup and AP polls are all adults.

Isn't the unreported story on these approval ratings that Obama's numbers among people who are paying attention are mediocre and his numbers among people who get their news by reading the cover of Us Weekly in the supermarket checkout are high?

Shouldn't we start saying that PPP and Rasmussen are the canary in the coal mine?  That they are outliers because they measure a different, and more relevant, universe of people than the AP and Gallup polls?  And that their sample is telling us where things are headed?

Of course it is 44 months until the next Presidential election. We don't know what sort of Presidency Obama will have.

The signs are far better than those for George W. Bush at the same stage of the Presidency, and Dubya won re-election... barely. I can see how Obama can lose in 2012 :

1. Sex scandal. For obvious reasons he has less leeway for sexual misdeeds than did Bill Clinton. The bromide that a politician can get away anything in bed other than a live boy or a dead woman doesn't apply to Obama; Obama can't get away with the exposure that a white female of any kind, no matter how willing she is, has shared a bed with him. Clinton got away with Monica Lewinsky; Obama could never. The best advice for Obama to remain President after 2012 is to stay with Michelle Obama. If anything happens to Michelle, then Obama had better not end up with any white, Asian, or non-black Hispanic woman; he isn't a popular musician, pro athlete, or professional athlete.

2. Economic calamity. Nobody expects any reprise of the real-estate boom of the Dubya era; such is clearly impossible. Real estate will be a very poor investment in the 2010s unless it is bought cheaply or built cheaply... and everyone knows that. Enough time remains for a boom that goes bust.

3. A persistent international calamity. A bolt from the blue (Pearl Harbor, Khobar Towers bombing, 9/11) doesn't cause so many problems for the President as does a war going badly (Korean War, Vietnam War 1966-1968, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2007-2008) or a bad situation with no obvious solution (Carter-era '444 Days' situation in Iran).

4. A bungled response to a natural disaster -- volcanic eruption, hurricane, earthquake, flood, or urban conflagration. Before 2005, such had never happened. After Hurricane Katrina, the President's Party had one political problem after another. To be sure, Dubya wasn't running for re-election, but the bad situation surely weakened the chances of some GOP Representatives and Senators to be re-elected in 2006 and 2008. In 2012 such bungling would endanger the chances of re-election of the President.

5. A mega-scandal involving abuse of power or economic corruption that Obama can't sweep under the rug.

If Obama avoids such snares, then he wins re-election. If he gets a steady economic recovery with "tax-and-spend" liberalism, then the only people who will reliably respond to condemnation of that method are the people who would never give a break to any Democratic nominee for President. The relevant and most recent parallel is Ronald Reagan, who ended the stagflation of the 1970s with economic decisions that the liberal playbook mentioned only with the words "Absolutely not!" Walter Mondale campaigned on opposition to the harsh effects of Reaganomics -- and won support almost entirely from core Democrats. That obviously wasn't enough for a Mondale victory.

A slow wind-down of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan won't be too little for Obama; fault will fall upon Dubya for the wars. Some negotiated settlement? That was Dwight Eisenhower. After eight years of you-know-who, an Eisenhower-like Presidency would look very good.

........

I look at the map of approval ratings, and I notice one huge trend: that the political polarization by region is far less than it was on Election Day. That itself is good for America. The approval map does not show that Obama is going to win Utah, Alabama, or Kentucky in 2012; in fact it doesn't even show that Obama will win Michigan or Pennsylvania. It shows, apparently, that potential voters do not yet reject Obama in overwhelming numbers anywhere -- yet. Americans in all regions -- even in some States that voted against him by 20% or greater margins -- give him a chance.  

Obama has ways in which he can lose his re-election bid in 2012, and many in which to win.       

    


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 23, 2009, 11:54:42 pm
Isn;t the PPP poll registered voters?  Rassmusen is likely voters and they Obama in the 60s.  The Gallup and AP polls are all adults.

Isn't the unreported story on these approval ratings that Obama's numbers among people who are paying attention are mediocre and his numbers among people who get their news by reading the cover of Us Weekly in the supermarket checkout are high?

Shouldn't we start saying that PPP and Rasmussen are the canary in the coal mine?  That they are outliers because they measure a different, and more relevant, universe of people than the AP and Gallup polls?  And that their sample is telling us where things are headed?

Trying to poll "likely voters" in an off-year is just a bad idea.

Indeed -- especially when some of the voters in the 2012 election aren't yet 15 years old, when Obama has yet to state that he will run for re-election, and nobody knows who the GOP nominee will be.   


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2009, 12:12:51 am
PPP National

Approve 53%
Disapprove 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf

Geez an approval even lower than the Republican hack Rasmussen??????

And Pew has him at 63-26 and AP/GfK at 64-30.
So apparently PPP is the odd one here.

Also, the new Harris Interactive Online poll (April 13-21, 2401 adults):

58% Excellent/Good
42% Fair/Poor

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/pubs/Harris_Poll_2009_04_23.pdf

Texas (DailyKos/R2000, April

45% Favorable
53% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Texas Poll was conducted from April 20 through April 22, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/4/22/TX/288


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 24, 2009, 12:45:11 pm
Daily Kos/Research 2000.
April 20-23, 2009
2400 Adults
Fav/Unfav

68%(-1)/26%(-1)

http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/23 (http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/23)



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on April 24, 2009, 03:26:11 pm
(
Img
)

hmmm


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 24, 2009, 05:09:48 pm
All State/National Journal

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/nj_20090423_4001.php

Presidential approval

Approve 61.1% (strongly 38%; somewhat 23.1%)
Disapprove 27.6% (somewhat 7.6%; strongly 20%)

Right Direction/Wrong Track (Country)

Right Direction 47.2%
Wrong Track 41.5%

Right Direction/Wrong Track (Economy)

Right Direction 30.3%
Wrong Track 54.6%

Obama and the Swells by Ronald Brownstein

Polls show President Obama gaining support from both affluent and blue-collar voters.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/nj_20090425_7496.php

Dave


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 24, 2009, 05:15:50 pm
Gallup the outlier? Everything is trending down except them.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 24, 2009, 05:30:08 pm
Gallup the outlier? Everything is trending down except them.

Not quite. Both Pew and Fox News have trended up :) compared with their immediately previous polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls

Pew: Approve 63% (+2) / Disapprove 26% (nc)

Fox News: Approve 62% (+4) / Disapprove 29% (-3)

Dave


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on April 24, 2009, 06:04:57 pm
Gallup the outlier? Everything is trending down except them.

An outlier in that it's going up and two other polls are going down?  That does not meet any statistical definition of "outlier" I know of.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Duke on April 24, 2009, 06:29:05 pm
2. Economic calamity. Nobody expects any reprise of the real-estate boom of the Dubya era; such is clearly impossible. Real estate will be a very poor investment in the 2010s unless it is bought cheaply or built cheaply... and everyone knows that. Enough time remains for a boom that goes bust.

Except that no one who knows anything thinks the real estte bubble is over.  Seen commercial real estate values?  As we say in California, aftershock.

A calamity is not required, just sustained misery.  I fully expect sustained misery (in fact I expect the next President to preside over sustained misery).


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on April 24, 2009, 09:17:28 pm
Gallup the outlier? Everything is trending down except them.

how the hell do you get that from the image I posted which you are responding to?  Did you turn your laptop upsidedown and are confused?

(
Img
)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 24, 2009, 11:07:21 pm
Rasmussen and "National Non-Daily Polls" are going down, no? Obviously the All polls trend estimate is being affected by the Gallup. Isn't "National Non-Daily Polls" everything except Gallup and Rasmussen? And is that not going down?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2009, 12:06:51 am
Michigan (Rasmussen, April 14, 500 Likely Voters):

64% Approve
35% Disapprove

(Jennifer Granholm):

48% Approve
52% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/michigan/michigan_voters_say_auto_bailouts_good_bank_bailouts_bad


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2009, 12:18:29 am
Elon Carolinas Poll (April 19-23):

WARNING: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE !!!

North Carolina (356 adults):

56% Approve
33% Disapprove

South Carolina (305 adults):

47% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://www.wral.com/asset/news/local/politics/2009/04/24/5018065/ElonPollData_042409.swf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 25, 2009, 01:12:05 am
Michigan (Rasmussen, April 14, 500 Likely Voters):

64% Approve
35% Disapprove

(Jennifer Granholm):

48% Approve
52% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/michigan/michigan_voters_say_auto_bailouts_good_bank_bailouts_bad

Isn't that high for Granholm?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 25, 2009, 01:19:24 am
I was thinking that too, her approvals must have shot up or this is definitely an outlier. I haven't seen Granholm's approvals in the high 40's in a long time.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2009, 01:30:47 am
I was thinking that too, her approvals must have shot up or this is definitely an outlier. I haven't seen Granholm's approvals in the high 40's in a long time.

No, Michigan = part of

(
Img
)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 25, 2009, 01:38:15 am
I was thinking that too, her approvals must have shot up or this is definitely an outlier. I haven't seen Granholm's approvals in the high 40's in a long time.

No, Michigan = part of

(
Img
)

That's badass. We should change our flag to that.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 25, 2009, 03:46:01 am
Latest update:

()...

The biggest state in electoral votes not yet shown is Indiana (11).  Next is Maryland (10), which I suspect will show up in a very dark shade of green. Louisiana (9) should be interesting.

If Obama is picking up support from blue-collar workers and people with low incomes, then he is likely cutting into the two traditionally-Democratic constituencies in which the GOP has made inroads -- most significantly, poor whites. Contrary to a common American myth, most poor people are white. Obama did very well among poor non-whites -- blacks, Latinos, and First People. 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2009, 12:08:10 pm
Both Rasmussen and Gallup show Obama's numbers improving again:

Gallup: 66-27 (+1, -1)
Rasmussen: 56-43 (+1, -1)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 25, 2009, 12:39:43 pm
Both Rasmussen and Gallup show Obama's numbers improving again:

Gallup: 66-27 (+1, -1)
Rasmussen: 56-43 (+1, -1)

The the first piece of real movement in ages on Rassmussen...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 25, 2009, 12:45:59 pm
Gallup is insane. They were awful in the 2008 election.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devilman88 on April 25, 2009, 12:57:07 pm
Polls are meanless, why are you guys making them out to be bigger then they are?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 25, 2009, 02:27:51 pm
Gallup is insane. They were awful in the 2008 election.

True, they had 2 or 3 different daily trackers didn't they, and the USA Today/Gallup polls and they still didn't get it right.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 25, 2009, 07:07:44 pm
Polls are meanless, why are you guys making them out to be bigger then they are?

Because we're geeks and we can't help ourselves. :P


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on April 25, 2009, 08:00:54 pm
Have you never seen Obama shortless?

enough said


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hash on April 25, 2009, 08:02:51 pm
Avalanche of polls: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/33317/obama_maintains_good_rating_in_us/


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 26, 2009, 12:21:41 am
Washington Post/ABC News Poll (April 21-24):

69% Approve
26% Disapprove

72% Favorable
26% Unfavorable

Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Obama, or not?

He understands the problems of people like you: 73-25
He is a strong leader: 77-22
He can be trusted in a crisis: 73-21
He is willing to listen to different points of view: 90-10
He is honest and trustworthy: 74-22
He shares your values: 60-38
He has brought needed change to Washington: 63-34
He is a good commander-in-chief of the military: 56-34

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_042609.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 26, 2009, 12:30:44 am
21% Republicans? Why do they even make polls like this? I am supposed to believe that in less than a month since their last poll, 4 percent of Americans have gone from being Republicans to Independent? There's no other reason for these polls except to shape public opinion. It really is disingenuous.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 26, 2009, 12:39:36 am
In the seperate ABC News release it is mentioned that 93% of Democrats approve, as do 67% of Independents and 36% of Republicans.

Even adjusted for the 2008 Exit Poll (39D, 32R, 29I) Obama's approval is at 67% with these numbers.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 26, 2009, 12:42:38 am
That 36% is crock sh**t and you know it. That 67% number is horse sh**t as well.

Even Kos has Obama at 23% favorable among Republicans so there's no way in Hell that he is at 36% approval. Who the  did they poll, the Specter family?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 26, 2009, 12:46:42 am
That 36% is crock sh**t and you know it. That 67% number is horse sh**t as well.

Only Rasmussen shows Obama tied among Independents. All other polls show him up by 2:1 among Independents. There is no f*****g way Obama is tied with Independents right now. Same with Republicans. Only Rasmussen and PPP (?!) have him at about 20% or lower.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on April 26, 2009, 01:03:40 am
He is willing to listen to different points of view: 90-10

It's amazing how few people in this country are complete hacks.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 26, 2009, 04:18:17 am
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Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 26, 2009, 10:01:50 am
That 36% is crock sh**t and you know it. That 67% number is horse sh**t as well.

Only Rasmussen shows Obama tied among Independents. All other polls show him up by 2:1 among Independents. There is no f*****g way Obama is tied with Independents right now. Same with Republicans. Only Rasmussen and PPP (?!) have him at about 20% or lower.

Okay, let's see how accurate that is:

Independents
Fox News(4/22)- 57%
Pew(4/14-4/21)-58%
Harris(4/23)- 58%
ARG(4/23)-53%
PPP(4/19)-54%
Rasmussen(4/26)-50%
Marist(4/1)-53%
Cook/RT(4/8-4/11)-55%
CBS(4/1-4/5)-63%

Republicans
Fox News(4/22)-24%
Pew(4/14-4/21)-30%
Harris(4/23)-22%
ARG(4/21)- 17%
PPP(4/19)-18%
Cook/RT(4/8-4/11)-30%
Pew(4/14-4/21)-29%
CBS(4/1-4/5)-31%
Marist(4/1)-25%
Quinnipiac(3/24-3/30)-25%

Okay, so here's what I notice from this list. Only one other polling firm even has him above 60%(just barely) among Independents. This means that the WAPO poll is clearly out on it's own in this regard. Yeah, some(not even close to all) of them are near 2-1 but they aren't anywhere close to 67% which is just absurd. I even doubt the WAPO poll is 2-1 among Independents, more likely 2.5-1 or 3-1. Then, we go to the Republicans. This again is the highest number found. If you take an average of the other polls that I have listed, you get an average approval among Republicans of 25.1%, a far cry from the 36%. Heck, even the Pollster.com trend line average is 23.8%. To say this poll is not way out of the mainstream is just wrong.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 26, 2009, 11:50:53 pm
Minnesota (Star Tribune/Princeton Research, April 20-23):

62% Approve
25% Disapprove

http://www.startribune.com/newsgraphics/43744872.html?elr=KArksCCCWiaEyayP4O:DW3ckUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiacyKUUr


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 27, 2009, 08:48:00 am
Minnesota (Star Tribune/Princeton Research, April 20-23):

62% Approve
25% Disapprove

http://www.startribune.com/newsgraphics/43744872.html?elr=KArksCCCWiaEyayP4O:DW3ckUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiacyKUUr

That's impossible. He's at 69% nationally and he won the state big. Junk poll.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on April 27, 2009, 09:34:02 am
Minnesota (Star Tribune/Princeton Research, April 20-23):

62% Approve
25% Disapprove

http://www.startribune.com/newsgraphics/43744872.html?elr=KArksCCCWiaEyayP4O:DW3ckUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiacyKUUr

That's impossible. He's at 69% nationally and he won the state big. Junk poll.

There's a difference between approval rating (% that think he's doing a good job) and favorability rating (% who think he's a good guy). The latter is usually higher than the former.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 27, 2009, 10:30:18 am
Minnesota (Star Tribune/Princeton Research, April 20-23):

62% Approve
25% Disapprove

http://www.startribune.com/newsgraphics/43744872.html?elr=KArksCCCWiaEyayP4O:DW3ckUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiacyKUUr

That's impossible. He's at 69% nationally and he won the state big. Junk poll.

There's a difference between approval rating (% that think he's doing a good job) and favorability rating (% who think he's a good guy). The latter is usually higher than the former.

I guess you missed the fact that I was mocking the Washington Post poll mentioned above.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 27, 2009, 11:15:20 am
Marist

Approve 55%(-1)
Disapprove 31%(+1)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/427-majority-approves-of-obamas-job-performance/



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dan the Roman on April 27, 2009, 12:00:03 pm
A lot of these polls are defining in independents differently. Rasmussen asks people to self-identify, CBS may well be weighting by registration. I would tend to to believe that given that CBS tends to suck as a pollster.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 27, 2009, 01:45:48 pm
Florida-Rasmussen

Approve 53%
Disapprove 47%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/florida/toplines/toplines_florida_april_23_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 27, 2009, 01:52:51 pm
Oh noooeees, Obama is at 63% among a GOP Likely Voter Poll !!!:

Public Opinion Strategies (R) (800 LV, April 19-21):

63% Approve
32% Disapprove

Party Composition:

37% DEM
30% GOP
32% IND

Looking forward to Rowan's spin ...

http://blog.pos.org/2009/04/819/


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 27, 2009, 02:01:28 pm
I would like to know what his approval is for each D, R, and I but they don't list it. Nonetheless, it doesn't look like a bad poll.

And I see you ignored the fact that I shot down your argument that the Washington Post poll was not out on its own.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 27, 2009, 02:27:06 pm
And I see you ignored the fact that I shot down your argument that the Washington Post poll was not out on its own.

Democrats are fine at 93%, Independents are fine at 67% with few Undecideds, Republicans could be off by about 5-10%. If this poll stands out for high Republican support, Rasmussen stands out for his crappy insisting that Indies split 50-50 atm.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 27, 2009, 02:31:32 pm
New Hampshire (503 adults, University of NH, April 13-22):

63% Approve (D-97, I-62, R-36)
29% Disapprove (D-1, I-28, R-54)

64% Favorable (D-96, I-66, R-34)
27% Unfavorable (D-2, I-26, R-52)

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2009_spring_presapp42709.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 27, 2009, 02:32:27 pm
And I see you ignored the fact that I shot down your argument that the Washington Post poll was not out on its own.

Democrats are fine at 93%, Independents are fine at 67% with few Undecideds, Republicans could be off by about 5-10%. If this poll stands out for high Republican support, Rasmussen stands out for his crappy insisting that Indies split 50-50 atm.

Independents are fine at 67%? No one else even has it that close. I would really like to see how many of these Independents disapprove in that poll, but of course they don't show that. How do you know if there are few undecideds?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 27, 2009, 02:44:08 pm
OBAMA IS POPULAR???!!!???

ROWAN MAD!!!11 RAAA!!!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 27, 2009, 04:41:40 pm
Georgia- Rasmussen

Approve 54%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_election_2010_georgia_april_23_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 27, 2009, 04:48:33 pm
Georgia- Rasmussen

Approve 54%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_election_2010_georgia_april_23_2009

So, Obama is more popular in Georgia than in Florida.

Oooookay!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 27, 2009, 05:39:58 pm
Georgia- Rasmussen

Approve 54%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_election_2010_georgia_april_23_2009

So, Obama is more popular in Georgia than in Florida.

Oooookay!

I must say that those are some... interesting... results.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on April 27, 2009, 06:31:51 pm
New Hampshire (503 adults, University of NH, April 13-22):

63% Approve (D-97, I-62, R-36)
29% Disapprove (D-1, I-28, R-54)

64% Favorable (D-96, I-66, R-34)
27% Unfavorable (D-2, I-26, R-52)

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2009_spring_presapp42709.pdf

Ooh. Lately I've been having a high affinity for New Hampshire, so thanks for an approval ratings fix. :)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 27, 2009, 06:34:11 pm
I'll stop treating Rasmussen like a joke when he stops pretending what he knows likely voters are over a year before any election (and over three before the Presidential) and when he stops claiming that 100% of voters have an opinion of Obama.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 27, 2009, 06:46:42 pm
Georgia- Rasmussen

Approve 54%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_election_2010_georgia_april_23_2009

So, Obama is more popular in Georgia than in Florida.

Oooookay!

I must say that those are some... interesting... results.

Using Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index (strongly approve - strongly disapprove), it's +7 in Georgia and +1 in Florida

Dave


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 27, 2009, 06:55:02 pm
Georgia- Rasmussen

Approve 54%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_election_2010_georgia_april_23_2009

So, Obama is more popular in Georgia than in Florida.

Oooookay!

I must say that those are some... interesting... results.

Using Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index (strongly approve - strongly disapprove), it's +7 in Georgia and +1 in Florida

Dave

It's probably because black Democrats in Georgia(a high percentage of the total electorate) are more likely to strongly approve of Obama than white Democrats in Florida are.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 27, 2009, 11:55:25 pm
The WP poll's internals just look wacky.  Partisan polls - well, you know...

I continue to be concerned about the wide divergences between IVR polls and live questioner polls.

However, I want to see what SUSA provides this month before saying too much more.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 28, 2009, 12:04:02 am
CBS News/NYT Poll (April 22-26):

68% Approve (D-91, I-65, R-31)
23% Disapprove (D-3, I-24, R-57)

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_042709_100days.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 28, 2009, 12:10:30 am
CNN/Opinion Research:

63% Approve
33% Disapprove

Democrats overwhelmingly approve of how Obama is handling his job as president; 61 percent of independents agree. Only 28 percent of Republicans say the president is doing a good job in office.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday, with 2,019 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/poll.obama.policies/index.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on April 28, 2009, 01:26:51 am
NBC/WSJ is coming out tomorrow, yays


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 28, 2009, 01:37:06 am
CBS News/NYT Poll (April 22-26):

68% Approve (D-91, I-65, R-31)
23% Disapprove (D-3, I-24, R-57)

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_042709_100days.pdf

CNN/Opinion Research:

63% Approve
33% Disapprove

Democrats overwhelmingly approve of how Obama is handling his job as president; 61 percent of independents agree. Only 28 percent of Republicans say the president is doing a good job in office.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday, with 2,019 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/poll.obama.policies/index.html

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Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 28, 2009, 10:18:01 am
Illinois- PPP

Approve 61%
Disapprove 31%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IL_428.pdf

I think it's becoming pretty clear that the IVR pollsters are getting lower approval ratings.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 28, 2009, 10:36:04 am
Latest update:

()...

The biggest state in electoral votes not yet shown is Indiana (11).  Next is Maryland (10), which I suspect will show up in a very dark shade of green. Louisiana (9) should be interesting.

... It is surprising that Obama has positive ratings in several states that he lost in 2008. If he is roughly as well-regarded in Kansas (which he lost big) as he is in Pennsylvania (which he won big), then he is doing better at creating popularity than he did at election time.

Possible explanations:

1. Obama has maxed out his support in the "Blue firewall". There's just no way for him to get greater support in New York or California.

2. Obama is picking up support from constituencies who didn't vote for him in 2008: farmers? Poor white people?

I look at South Dakota and Kansas, two of the most rural states in America... and perhaps some people who didn't vote for him now think that he isn't "all that bad". I look at such states as Arkansas and Kentucky and figure that people who couldn't vote for him because he was "too urban", "too Northern", or "too liberal" in 2008... find his policies tolerable. Maybe fewer people in those states get FoX Propaganda Channel.  

3. Obama may be succeeding at reducing the political polarization in America. Does anyone see any Rove-like "majority of a majority" stuff under Obama? He has already set his style of leadership, and people may be seeing it as more effective than what they have seen recently.

4. Obama still has much good will on the economy. He's not  getting blame for the economic distress that Americans now endure -- yet. He could get blame for new economic distress should it occur, but that distress (like a second crash) has yet to happen.

5. Should the pattern hold, the GOP is in deep trouble in 2012. It might whittle away a couple of House seats of marginally-incompetent Democrats or those in districts decidedly more conservative than the average in 2010, but in 2012... the GOP has few areas that it can now rely upon for votes. Huckabee might win a bunch of states now in pale green in the southeastern US only to lose in the Upper Plains while whittling away nothing from the Blue Firewall. Palin and Romney look as if they would have trouble in the South because they have no obvious ties to it -- and neither can whittle away at the Blue Firewall. Who runs shapes how elections... but if I were predicting the 2012 Presidential election, I could only predict (assuming no real change, itself asking much) that the only significant difference between possible GOP nominees is how they lose.  

6. Obama is a masterful politician, and that shows in approval polls. The approval ratings don't show his techniques so much as they show the geographical basis of his approval.


 


  


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Franzl on April 28, 2009, 10:54:41 am
Need a napkin to clean up your drawers?

Have you ever written a post that isn't aggressive or sarcastic in tone?

Yes, to legitimate posters. I really don't waste my time with left wing hacks and religious bigots like you.

As often as I get upset with some of your comments....that was perfectly legitimate.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bernietards Don't Understand Polling on April 28, 2009, 10:56:29 am
And you consider religious bigotry worse than racist bigotry?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 28, 2009, 10:56:43 am
Illinois- PPP

Approve 61%
Disapprove 31%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IL_428.pdf

I think it's becoming pretty clear that the IVR pollsters are getting lower approval ratings.

That number extrapolates pretty well into a 53-41 national number, all told.

I did my re-check of the SUSA numbers extrapolated from the 14 states polled in March (500 adults) and came up with 59% approval.  Given the way adults skews from RV (or LV), that puts it in the Rasmussen/PPP category of mid-50s approval.  I am curious to see April.

The only other poll out there which gives us an approval in the mid-50s range is Marist and I have no clue why that would be different than the others.  They're not using computer technology, as far as I know.  

They are using RV.  And the other polls using RV with live questioners tend to show lower approval (around 60%) than the adult polls (mid-60%) on average.

But this IVR vs. live questioner skew is troubling me greatly, especially if it continues.  Makes me suspect that lying is going on.  It can't be laid on survey methodology, since Rasmussen has the tightest voter screen (which should skew his polls more Republican) and PPP tends to uses weights which skew Democratic.

Just some food for thought.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ?????????? on April 28, 2009, 10:57:30 am
And you consider religious bigotry worse than racist bigotry?

I oppose both.

Need a napkin to clean up your drawers?

Have you ever written a post that isn't aggressive or sarcastic in tone?

Yes, to legitimate posters. I really don't waste my time with left wing hacks and religious bigots like you.

As often as I get upset with some of your comments....that was perfectly legitimate.

Just a pad in the echo chamber.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bernietards Don't Understand Polling on April 28, 2009, 11:01:57 am
Intelligent people find it very hard not to look down on overly religious types, and I have said nothing about Christians that isn't true.

You are nothing more than a pathetic, venomous slime that constantly tries to draw attention and start fires with outrageous comments.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 28, 2009, 11:02:39 am
Maybe the "bradley effect" is finally showing up, this time on approval ratings.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ?????????? on April 28, 2009, 11:03:16 am
Shadow, you're so cute. I love you man.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 28, 2009, 11:16:12 am
Maybe the "bradley effect" is finally showing up, this time on approval ratings.

I know I'm going to be crucified for this, but JJ is right in a certain sense, I'm almost sure of it.  Among the undecideds who didn't lean (in other words - the "pure"guys), it looked pretty apparent to me that they all went towards McCain (probably worth about 2% or so).  That, however, was counterbalanced by almost all polls underestimating black turnout (an extra 1%-2%, I'm pretty sure as to this exact number), along with some other really minor factors.

But that's not really a "Bradley effect" - that's more of an "undecideds" effect.

If the divergences in the polling are because people are lying, a conclusion which I'm not coming to yet, but is in my mind, the IVR vs. live questioner divergence is a big point in its favor. (remember most polls use college kids/minorities (usually black people) to conduct their polling)

Remember also, there was always the theory out there that the "Bradley" effect was more of a "media" effect - in that people were less likely to say they didn't like someone because of their race when positive media attention was showered endlessly on him.

Of course, one could argue that happened during the campaign and nothing happened.  But this might be different.

Anyway, more food for thought.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 28, 2009, 12:45:05 pm
SurveyUSA April Polls:

Alabama:

48% Approve (+1)
49% Disapprove (+2)

California:

69% Approve (+2)
27% Disapprove (-1)

Iowa:

59% Approve (+2)
35% Disapprove (-5)

Kansas:

44% Approve (-11)
50% Disapprove (+10)

Kentucky:

52% Approve (-4)
41% Disapprove (+3)

Minnesota:

63% Approve (+2)
33% Disapprove (+1)

Missouri:

57% Approve (nc)
40% Disapprove (+1)

New Mexico:

63% Approve (+2)
32% Disapprove (-3)

New York:

73% Approve (+1)
24% Disapprove (+1)

Oregon:

58% Approve (-4)
37% Disapprove (+6)

Virginia:

57% Approve (+2)
39% Disapprove (+4)

Washington:

64% Approve (+2)
30% Disapprove (-4)

Wisconsin:

56% Approve (+3)
42% Disapprove (nc)

No data for Massachusetts so far.

KS = Outlier ? Or just returning to its conservative roots ?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. RI on April 28, 2009, 12:47:03 pm
Other than the OR/WA disparity, those look rather realistic for a popular Democratic president.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 28, 2009, 12:54:23 pm

Latest update (after some SurveyUSA polls):

()

... Survey USA is a GOP-leaning poll. It might still be accurate.

Indiana, anyone? Louisiana? Montana?






Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 28, 2009, 12:56:35 pm
... Survey USA is a GOP-leaning poll.

How so ?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Franzl on April 28, 2009, 01:03:25 pm
... Survey USA is a GOP-leaning poll.

How so ?

didn't you know, everything besides NY Times and CNN is a GOP leaning poll?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 28, 2009, 01:28:56 pm
So what did he do to piss Kansas off so royally? lol.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 28, 2009, 01:31:38 pm
Kentucky surprises me for some reason.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 28, 2009, 02:06:36 pm
Still translates into a 59% approval among adults nationally, folks.  No change.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 28, 2009, 02:08:31 pm
Those look like reasonable polls. He is a few points higher in the states than the percentage he won in the election, which is what should be expected.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on April 28, 2009, 02:40:23 pm
SurveyUSA April Polls:

Alabama:

48% Approve (+1)
49% Disapprove (+2)

California:

69% Approve (+2)
27% Disapprove (-1)

Iowa:

59% Approve (+2)
35% Disapprove (-5)

Kansas:

44% Approve (-11)
50% Disapprove (+10)

Kentucky:

52% Approve (-4)
41% Disapprove (+3)

Minnesota:

63% Approve (+2)
33% Disapprove (+1)

Missouri:

57% Approve (nc)
40% Disapprove (+1)

New Mexico:

63% Approve (+2)
32% Disapprove (-3)

New York:

73% Approve (+1)
24% Disapprove (+1)

Oregon:

58% Approve (-4)
37% Disapprove (+6)

Virginia:

57% Approve (+2)
39% Disapprove (+4)

Washington:

64% Approve (+2)
30% Disapprove (-4)

Wisconsin:

56% Approve (+3)
42% Disapprove (nc)

No data for Massachusetts so far.

KS = Outlier ? Or just returning to its conservative roots ?

Obama Is doing well In the states he won.Here In Missouri people are seeing he Is not the carticure Palin and others were saying.Remember Mccain only won by 4 thousand votes.
Missouri Is the Mccain state most likely to flip In 2012.I am surprised by Kentuckey.Perhapes
White Democrats are coming around.Remember Bill Clinton won It In both 92 and 96.I would be very Intrested In poll out of West Virginia.I am also surprised by him only slightly more disapproved In Alamaba than Approve.I thought It would be higher disapproval.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 28, 2009, 02:43:41 pm
Obama Is doing well In the states he won.Here In Missouri people are seeing he Is not the carticure Palin and others were saying.Remember Mccain only won by 4 thousand votes.
Missouri Is the Mccain state most likely to flip In 2012.I am surprised by Kentuckey.Perhapes
White Democrats are coming around.Remember Bill Clinton won It In both 92 and 96.I would be very Intrested In poll out of West Virginia.I am also surprised by him only slightly more disapproved In Alamaba than Approve.I thought It would be higher disapproval.

kinda reminds me of someone...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Jimmie on April 28, 2009, 02:51:42 pm
Obama Is doing well In the states he won.Here In Missouri people are seeing he Is not the carticure Palin and others were saying.Remember Mccain only won by 4 thousand votes.
Missouri Is the Mccain state most likely to flip In 2012.I am surprised by Kentuckey.Perhapes
White Democrats are coming around.Remember Bill Clinton won It In both 92 and 96.I would be very Intrested In poll out of West Virginia.I am also surprised by him only slightly more disapproved In Alamaba than Approve.I thought It would be higher disapproval.

kinda reminds me of someone...

Yeah, I understand. However, this person is not me. IP Checks work wonders.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 28, 2009, 03:34:10 pm
Quote
Kansas:

44% Approve (-11)
50% Disapprove (+10)
:)
I think this will close any assumptions that Kansas could vote for Obama under a good term.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 28, 2009, 03:39:48 pm
Quote
Kansas:

44% Approve (-11)
50% Disapprove (+10)
:)
I think this will close any assumptions that Kansas could vote for Obama under a good term.



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on April 28, 2009, 03:44:12 pm
Quote
Kansas:

44% Approve (-11)
50% Disapprove (+10)
:)
I think this will close any assumptions that Kansas could vote for Obama under a good term.


A 21-point swing not exhibited in any other states looks a heck of a lot like an anomaly to me, either in the first poll, the second or both.  Either way, I doubt Obama was +14 in KS last time and -6 now.  I don't think we can learn much from the polls together.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 28, 2009, 03:49:42 pm
SOMEONE PLEASE POLL INDIANA.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 28, 2009, 03:52:11 pm
SOMEONE PLEASE POLL INDIANA.
SOMEONE PLEASE POLL INDIANA AND MONTANA.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 28, 2009, 04:00:24 pm
SOMEONE PLEASE POLL INDIANA.

Totally.
If I had to guess it, it would be about
Approve: 54%
Disapprove:40%


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on April 28, 2009, 04:06:01 pm
SOMEONE PLEASE POLL INDIANA AND MONTANA.
Are you kidding?

No one would poll the more interesting ones. :P


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 28, 2009, 04:09:21 pm
SOMEONE PLEASE POLL INDIANA AND MONTANA.
Are you kidding?

No one would poll the more interesting ones. :P

You mean to say New York and California polls don't interest you? Didn't you know that they're gonna be toss-ups in 2012...? Duh...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on April 28, 2009, 05:00:47 pm
I'm more interested in states such as Idaho, Wyoming or Nebraska than Indiana to be honest.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 28, 2009, 05:10:30 pm
I'm more interested in states such as Idaho, Wyoming or Nebraska than Indiana to be honest.
Are you being sarcastic?
Because I would love to see polling there. I mean, is there any chance Obama could win there in 4 years?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on April 28, 2009, 05:13:37 pm
I'm more interested in states such as Idaho, Wyoming or Nebraska than Indiana to be honest.
Are you being sarcastic?
Because I would love to see polling there. I mean, is there any chance Obama could win there in 4 years?

Why would I be sarcastic?
I'm just curious of whether some of these sparsely populated Western states approve of Obama or not.  I just happen to have an interest in why many of these western states are so republican and whether it's for the same reason the South is.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 28, 2009, 05:13:45 pm
I'm more interested in states such as Idaho, Wyoming or Nebraska than Indiana to be honest.
Are you being sarcastic?
Because I would love to see polling there. I mean, is there any chance Obama could win there in 4 years?

Polling by congressional district in Nebraska would be kind of cool, but yeah, do we really need Wyoming polls?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on April 28, 2009, 05:25:28 pm
I'm more interested in states such as Idaho, Wyoming or Nebraska than Indiana to be honest.
Are you being sarcastic?
Because I would love to see polling there. I mean, is there any chance Obama could win there in 4 years?

Polling by congressional district in Nebraska would be kind of cool, but yeah, do we really need Wyoming polls?

Why wouldn't we?  Wyoming is the state where the margin between McCain and Obama voters was the greatest.  Wouldn't you be interested in seeing whether they have a different opinion of Obama now that he is actually the president?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 28, 2009, 05:28:34 pm

snip


pbrower, this site usually uses red for disapproval/no votes, just fyi.

Also SUSA continues to be weird and show gigantic swings and discrepancies between states that should be similar.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 28, 2009, 05:41:55 pm
WSJ/NBC

Approve 61%
Disapprove 30%

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NewsPoll_042809.pdf



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on April 28, 2009, 06:07:58 pm
I mostly want to post this SUSA ad graphic because I find it amusing

(
Img
)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 28, 2009, 06:35:09 pm
Looks like a church flier.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on April 28, 2009, 06:44:01 pm
WSJ/NBC

Approve 61%
Disapprove 30%

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NewsPoll_042809.pdf

Is this honestly what Lunar was waiting for?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 29, 2009, 12:43:02 am
Wisconsin (St. Norbert College, April 1-9, 400 adults):

How satisfied are you with the way President Obama is doing his job overall? Would you say
you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

60% Very/Somewhat Satisfied
35% Very/Somewhat Dissatisfied

http://www.snc.edu/surveycenter/docs/2009/national.pdf


Arizona (AZ State University):

53% Approve
36% Disapprove

Support for Obama divides strongly along partisan lines. While 87 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents polled gave the president positive ratings, only 32 percent of Republicans said he is doing a good job.

The poll, conducted April 23-26, sampled 390 registered voters, in a split of 40 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 26 percent Independent. The results have a 5 percent margin of error.

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/138529


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 29, 2009, 12:47:10 am
Utah (Dan Jones/KSL-TV/Deseret News):

53% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=6306801


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on April 29, 2009, 01:14:38 am
WSJ/NBC

Approve 61%
Disapprove 30%

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NewsPoll_042809.pdf

Is this honestly what Lunar was waiting for?

my professor runs that poll and I got a 26 page update of it that I have to read for class tomorrow ... and my question that I had proposed didn't get into the poll as I had a remote hope for.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 29, 2009, 02:26:09 am
WSJ/NBC

Approve 61%
Disapprove 30%

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NewsPoll_042809.pdf

Is this honestly what Lunar was waiting for?

my professor runs that poll and I got a 26 page update of it that I have to read for class tomorrow ... and my question that I had proposed didn't get into the poll as I had a remote hope for.

What was your question?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 29, 2009, 02:48:28 am
... Survey USA is a GOP-leaning poll.

How so ?

Electoralvote.com recognized it (with PPP  on the other side) as a partisan poll.

That said, the 2012 election is far enough away that people can be objective even if they have their biases. 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on April 29, 2009, 02:54:09 am
Electoralvote.com recognized it (with PPP  on the other side) as a partisan poll.

Weird, on what basis?  They poll mostly for media outlets, and may do polling for the Republicans, but hell Rasmussen did it for the Libertarians.  They've certainly never exhibited any profound GOP bias, so I wouldn't really see it as especially relevant either way.  We have enough of a record to know of one if it were to exist.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 29, 2009, 03:16:25 am

Obama Is doing well In the states he won.Here In Missouri people are seeing he Is not the carticure Palin and others were saying.Remember Mccain only won by 4 thousand votes.
Missouri Is the Mccain state most likely to flip In 2012.I am surprised by Kentuckey.Perhapes
White Democrats are coming around.Remember Bill Clinton won It In both 92 and 96.I would be very Intrested In poll out of West Virginia.I am also surprised by him only slightly more disapproved In Alamaba than Approve.I thought It would be higher disapproval.

I disagree with you on Missouri only with one qualification: Arizona seems more likely to flip. Although John McCain carried his home state by 8%, that is decidedly less than the usual effect (about 10-15%) of the Favorite Son effect.  To be sure, Obama did almost as well in 2008 in Massachusetts as did Kerry in 2004 -- Massachusetts wasn't going to vote for any Republican for President in either year, and probably won't for the next twenty. Obama did "only" a little better (7%)  in Illinois than did Kerry in 2004 -- but then, Obama did little campaigning in Illinois.  He did far more campaigning in Indiana, and Indiana responded as if he were a Favorite Son.

Bush won Texas by about 11% more in 2004 than did McCain in 2008.  To be sure, demographic trends (larger Hispanic electorate, more urbanization) might push Texas more toward Obama next time, the Favorite Son effect is significant.  It was enough to get South Dakota to give 45% of its vote for George McGovern in 1972 (one of his best performances in a dreadful result) in contrast to the 35% that he got in North Dakota and the 30% that he got in Nebraska.

Demographics -- Arizona has a fast-growing and young Hispanic electorate and is one of the most urban states in America (greater Phoenix and greater Tucson probably have more than 80% of the state's population) -- suggest that Arizona would have been a tough state for any Republican other than McCain to carry.  I think that Obama could lose Indiana and gain Arizona. The Republicans will not take Indiana for granted next time.

Missouri? With an effective Presidency, Obama wins Missouri -- no question.  


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 29, 2009, 03:29:55 am

snip


pbrower, this site usually uses red for disapproval/no votes, just fyi.

Does anyone want to vote on it? I find green and yellow an adequate contrast, and non-partisan. Red and green are opposites, so they are more glaring.   Green and yellow are only 60 degrees away so they have adequate contrast without glare.

I will comply with the result of a vote.

Quote
Also SUSA continues to be weird and show gigantic swings and discrepancies between states that should be similar.

That was a problem in 2008 for SUSA. But I accept it for now in view of a paucity of polls.



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on April 29, 2009, 08:04:48 am

Obama Is doing well In the states he won.Here In Missouri people are seeing he Is not the carticure Palin and others were saying.Remember Mccain only won by 4 thousand votes.
Missouri Is the Mccain state most likely to flip In 2012.I am surprised by Kentuckey.Perhapes
White Democrats are coming around.Remember Bill Clinton won It In both 92 and 96.I would be very Intrested In poll out of West Virginia.I am also surprised by him only slightly more disapproved In Alamaba than Approve.I thought It would be higher disapproval.

I disagree with you on Missouri only with one qualification: Arizona seems more likely to flip. Although John McCain carried his home state by 8%, that is decidedly less than the usual effect (about 10-15%) of the Favorite Son effect.  To be sure, Obama did almost as well in 2008 in Massachusetts as did Kerry in 2004 -- Massachusetts wasn't going to vote for any Republican for President in either year, and probably won't for the next twenty. Obama did "only" a little better (7%)  in Illinois than did Kerry in 2004 -- but then, Obama did little campaigning in Illinois.  He did far more campaigning in Indiana, and Indiana responded as if he were a Favorite Son.

Bush won Texas by about 11% more in 2004 than did McCain in 2008.  To be sure, demographic trends (larger Hispanic electorate, more urbanization) might push Texas more toward Obama next time, the Favorite Son effect is significant.  It was enough to get South Dakota to give 45% of its vote for George McGovern in 1972 (one of his best performances in a dreadful result) in contrast to the 35% that he got in North Dakota and the 30% that he got in Nebraska.

Demographics -- Arizona has a fast-growing and young Hispanic electorate and is one of the most urban states in America (greater Phoenix and greater Tucson probably have more than 80% of the state's population) -- suggest that Arizona would have been a tough state for any Republican other than McCain to carry.  I think that Obama could lose Indiana and gain Arizona. The Republicans will not take Indiana for granted next time.

Missouri? With an effective Presidency, Obama wins Missouri -- no question.  

I totaly see your point.I see Arizona as totally flipable.Let's remember while Mccain was the favored son In 2008 he was kinda weak.Obama didn't campagin there except for a commercial In the last week and on Election Eve Mccain felt he had to have a rally In Arizona yet Obama got 45 percent of the vote.
With Mccain off the ticket Arizona Is In play for Obama,and he will campagin there In 2012.A Arizona poll has come out with him at 53 percent approval so winning there Is possable.And also consider
Clinton narrorly lost arizona In 92 but won it In 96

As for Indiana It Is the obama state most likely to flip however don't underestimate Obama.The
Clintons,Mccain,and the congressional Republicans have all made that mistake.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 29, 2009, 08:19:59 am
Quinnipiac University:

58% Approve
30% Disapprove

President Obama wins 90 - 4 percent approval from Democrats and 53 - 33 percent approval from independent voters, while Republicans disapprove 59 - 26 percent. Black voters approve 93 - 1 percent, White voters 53 - 35 percent. There is a 10-point gender gap, as women approve 63 - 25 percent while men approve 53 - 35 percent.

From April 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,041 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1291


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 29, 2009, 08:42:08 am
Quinnipiac University:

58% Approve
30% Disapprove

President Obama wins 90 - 4 percent approval from Democrats and 53 - 33 percent approval from independent voters, while Republicans disapprove 59 - 26 percent. Black voters approve 93 - 1 percent, White voters 53 - 35 percent. There is a 10-point gender gap, as women approve 63 - 25 percent while men approve 53 - 35 percent.

From April 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,041 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1291

Hey at least they were able to find 1% of blacks that disapproved, CBSNews found 0.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 29, 2009, 09:20:04 am
Oklahoma (Sooner Poll, April 23-26, 318 Likely Voters):

47% Approve
48% Disapprove

"The only good news for Obama was that, even at 47 percent, his approval rating is higher in Oklahoma than George W. Bush's during the final year of his presidency."

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=11&articleid=20090429_16_A1_OLHMIY212294


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 29, 2009, 09:59:53 am
Utah (Dan Jones/KSL-TV/Deseret News):

53% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=6306801

How come Utah is giving Obama good numbers considering how deeply red (Atlas:Blue) it is?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 29, 2009, 10:20:19 am
Utah (Dan Jones/KSL-TV/Deseret News):

53% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=6306801

How come Utah is giving Obama good numbers considering how deeply red (Atlas:Blue) it is?

Because it's a crap poll. :)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 29, 2009, 10:27:42 am
Quinnipiac University:

58% Approve
30% Disapprove

President Obama wins 90 - 4 percent approval from Democrats and 53 - 33 percent approval from independent voters, while Republicans disapprove 59 - 26 percent. Black voters approve 93 - 1 percent, White voters 53 - 35 percent. There is a 10-point gender gap, as women approve 63 - 25 percent while men approve 53 - 35 percent.

From April 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,041 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1291

Hey at least they were able to find 1% of blacks that disapproved, CBSNews found 0.

Apparently Michael Steele couldn't answer the phone when the CBS pollster called but he was there for the Quinnipiac one.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 29, 2009, 10:30:52 am
Quinnipiac University:

58% Approve
30% Disapprove

President Obama wins 90 - 4 percent approval from Democrats and 53 - 33 percent approval from independent voters, while Republicans disapprove 59 - 26 percent. Black voters approve 93 - 1 percent, White voters 53 - 35 percent. There is a 10-point gender gap, as women approve 63 - 25 percent while men approve 53 - 35 percent.

From April 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,041 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1291

Hey at least they were able to find 1% of blacks that disapproved, CBSNews found 0.

Apparently Michael Steele couldn't answer the phone when the CBS pollster called but he was there for the Quinnipiac one.

He won't talk to CBS. They are commie, duh.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on April 29, 2009, 10:48:13 am
WSJ/NBC

Approve 61%
Disapprove 30%

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NewsPoll_042809.pdf

Is this honestly what Lunar was waiting for?

my professor runs that poll and I got a 26 page update of it that I have to read for class tomorrow ... and my question that I had proposed didn't get into the poll as I had a remote hope for.

What was your question?

Just asking people if they feel that their tax rates have gone up over last year.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 29, 2009, 11:12:40 am
Louisiana (Southern Media & Opinion Research):

53% Excellent/Good
38% Not So Good/Poor

600 Likely Voters, April 13-16, 2009

http://www.laplaintalk.com/news-releases/3005press-release.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 29, 2009, 11:21:34 am
Louisiana (Southern Media & Opinion Research):

53% Excellent/Good
38% Not So Good/Poor

600 Likely Voters, April 13-16, 2009

http://www.laplaintalk.com/news-releases/3005press-release.pdf

That is higher than I would have expected.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on April 29, 2009, 11:55:45 am
Louisiana (Southern Media & Opinion Research):

53% Excellent/Good
38% Not So Good/Poor

600 Likely Voters, April 13-16, 2009

http://www.laplaintalk.com/news-releases/3005press-release.pdf

Surprised by this.I guess In Lousiana the white democrats are coming along.We know the
Black Democrats are on Obama's side.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on April 29, 2009, 04:29:20 pm
That's some great news from Utah and Louisiana!  I wish someone would poll Alaska.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Duke on April 29, 2009, 07:44:15 pm
This thread will be amusing when unemployment hits 12%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 29, 2009, 07:48:43 pm
This thread will be amusing when unemployment hits 12%.

That won't happen, silly. You see, America hates the GOP so much that they won't ever disapprove of Obama because they know the alternative!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ?????????? on April 29, 2009, 07:54:27 pm
This thread will be amusing when unemployment hits 12%.

That won't happen, silly. You see, America hates the GOP so much that they won't ever disapprove of Obama because they know the alternative!

Not far from the truth.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 30, 2009, 12:05:37 am
Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R):

61% Approve
32% Disapprove

Survey of 1000 registered voters, conducted April 13-16.

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/7/original/RR_April_09_Toplines.pdf

Diageo Hotline:

62% Approve
33% Disapprove

Survey of 800 registered voters, conducted April 23-26.

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/FDDiageoHotlinePoll100DaysMasterToplineforRelease.pdf

New York (SurveyUSA, conducted separately after their April poll release):

66% Approve
28% Disapprove

If there was a do-over election for president of the United States today, would you vote for Barack Obama the Democrat? Or John McCain the Republican?

Obama - 62%
McCain - 32%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ca1b31c7-00c9-4032-95d5-33cae93ccf7d


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 30, 2009, 12:12:19 am
Massachusetts (Suffolk University):

66% Approve
27% Disapprove

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/SUPRC.Mass.Marginals.April.28.2009.pdf

Florida (Suffolk University):

60% Approve
30% Disapprove

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/Flordia.Marginals.April.28.2009.pdf

The Suffolk University/7NEWS poll of Massachusetts voters was conducted April 24 through April 27, 2009.  The Florida poll was conducted April 26 through April 28. The margin of error on each study of 400 is +/- 4.9 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.  All respondents from the statewide surveys were registered voters.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ?????????? on April 30, 2009, 06:57:19 am
Uni poll? LOL


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 30, 2009, 07:23:33 am
Why is Suffolk polling Florida? Geez...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ?????????? on April 30, 2009, 07:29:09 am
Why is Suffolk polling Florida? Geez...

Gotta make the numbers look good.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 30, 2009, 09:37:12 am
This thread will be amusing when unemployment hits 12%.

I don't know, with GOP reactions like that, I'd say that it's pretty amusing right now. :)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 30, 2009, 09:49:39 am

Latest update:

()

Indiana, anyone? Louisiana? Mississippi? Montana?

First, the bad news for Obama/good news for the GOP:

One new net-negative: Oklahoma, and it is extremely close in one of the most right-wing states in America.

Now the good news for Obama: Oklahoma is one of the most right-wing states in America, and it is perhaps the only state that will vote for every imaginable GOP nominee in 2012.

Louisiana suggests a positive trend in a raft of states in the WV-LA crescent that voted strongly against Obama but voted for Clinton. Recent approval polls suggest that Obama could win such against any Republican except perhaps Huckabee (and I recognize the significance of cultural geography in voting).






Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 30, 2009, 01:07:03 pm
Ohio (University of Cincinnati):

63% Approve (D 89, I 54, R 30)
32% Disapprove (D 8, I 41, R 65)

Registered to vote ?

62% Approve
34% Disapprove

These findings are based on the latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. The Ohio Poll is sponsored by the University of Cincinnati. The Poll was conducted between April 16 and April 27, 2009. A random sample of 818 adults from throughout the state was interviewed by telephone.

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op043009.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 30, 2009, 01:23:46 pm
Finally, Obama's standing in Indiana (to some extent):

Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Evan Bayh:

61% Favorable
38% Unfavorable

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/cheat-sheet/043009-white-house-cheat-sheet.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 30, 2009, 01:31:17 pm
Finally, Obama's standing in Indiana (to some extent):

Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Evan Bayh:

61% Favorable
38% Unfavorable

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/cheat-sheet/043009-white-house-cheat-sheet.html

That's better than I expected, although I guess his job approval will be about 56-58.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 30, 2009, 01:31:35 pm
FYI:

Hamilton Campaigns doesn't seem to be a DEM hack poll institute, as they had Obama up by 4 in Florida (47-43) a few weeks before the election.

In FL-24, they even showed Kosmas (D) trailing Incumbent Rep. Feeney (R) by 42-43, but Kosmas beat Feeney by 57-41 in the General election.

In FL-25 they had Rep. Diaz-Balart (R) ahead by 3 (45-42),  he won by 53-47.

http://www.hamiltoncampaigns.com


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 30, 2009, 06:11:01 pm
Georgia- Research 2000/Kos

Favorable 49%
Unfavorable 46%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/4/29/GA/291


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on April 30, 2009, 06:24:12 pm
In FL-24, they even showed Kosmas (D) trailing Incumbent Rep. Feeney (R) by 42-43, but Kosmas beat Feeney by 57-41 in the General election.

So, they may not be biased, but... :P


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 01, 2009, 10:26:34 am
Georgia- Research 2000/Kos

Favorable 49%
Unfavorable 46%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/4/29/GA/291

Wow, that's pretty bad... it's not like he lost Georgia by a huge margin either.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 01, 2009, 10:53:18 am
Georgia- Research 2000/Kos

Favorable 49%
Unfavorable 46%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/4/29/GA/291

Wow, that's pretty bad... it's not like he lost Georgia by a huge margin either.

Not really. Rasmussen recently had him at 54-46 and Strategic Vision at 55-39.

Or Georgia voters don't like Obama personally, but like what he's doing ... :P


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 01, 2009, 11:03:34 am
Finally, Obama's standing in Indiana (to some extent):

Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Evan Bayh:

61% Favorable
38% Unfavorable

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/cheat-sheet/043009-white-house-cheat-sheet.html

That's better than I expected, although I guess his job approval will be about 56-58.

No, according to Howey Politics, Obama's approval rating in Indiana is 61-36.

http://www.howeypolitics.com/2009/05/01/bayh-votes-against-obamas-budget


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 01, 2009, 11:09:11 am
Finally, Obama's standing in Indiana (to some extent):

Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Evan Bayh:

61% Favorable
38% Unfavorable

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/cheat-sheet/043009-white-house-cheat-sheet.html

That's better than I expected, although I guess his job approval will be about 56-58.

No, according to Howey Politics, Obama's approval rating in Indiana is 61-36.

http://www.howeypolitics.com/2009/05/01/bayh-votes-against-obamas-budget

Once again Bayh shows that he really has the finger on the pulse of his constituents.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 01, 2009, 11:23:04 am
FYI, Rasmussen April Party ID:

D 38.7%(nc)
R 32.6%(-0.6%)
I 28.7%(+0.6%)

These are the changes from March. Republicans went lower and Indies went up.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 01, 2009, 12:52:55 pm
Latest update:

()

Indiana in! Correction made! Georgia gets cut down a bit.



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 01, 2009, 12:57:19 pm
I'm going to interpret the 63% support for Bayh in Indiana as a "high 5" in Indiana for Obama. That's not too far off from Ohio. Georgia gets cut down a bit.

No, you got this wrong:

The poll was conducted for Evan Bayh, but also asked for Obama's approval.

Obama's approval in Indiana is 61-36, his favorable rating is 61-38.

Bayh's approval is at 73%, his favorable rating at 74-23.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 01, 2009, 01:02:15 pm
It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 01, 2009, 01:07:34 pm
It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.

Not necessarily: Dick Lugar has a 74-19 favorable rating in the same poll.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 01, 2009, 01:12:11 pm
It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.

Not necessarily: Dick Lugar has a 74-19 favorable rating in the same poll.

Then all of their favorables are way too high. :)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 01, 2009, 02:29:47 pm
It's a Democratic poll for a Democratic candidate, the numbers are likely inflated.

Not necessarily: Dick Lugar has a 74-19 favorable rating in the same poll.

Lugar ran unopposed in a bad year for the Republican Party (2006) because no Democrat thought himself able to beat him.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 01, 2009, 03:55:04 pm
SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on May 01, 2009, 04:01:27 pm
SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 01, 2009, 04:10:04 pm
SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

But it's kinda not relevant since it uses a different electorate composition than what voted in 2008.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Duke on May 02, 2009, 12:40:56 am
This thread will be amusing when unemployment hits 12%.

I don't know, with GOP reactions like that, I'd say that it's pretty amusing right now. :)

You can pretty much put me in the Sam Spade level of pessimism camp on the economy.  I basically think we're in deep you-know-what for a couple of years no matter what we do, and it will come as no shock that I think almost every single thing Obama has done has made the problem bigger.  He misdiagnosed both the problem and the solution.

So yeah, suffice it to say I think Obama's approval ratings are going to slide quite a bit over the next year.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 02, 2009, 05:13:44 am
This thread will be amusing when unemployment hits 12%.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator. As a rule, businesses do not hire to stimulate economic activity; they hire only after they can no longer speed up production lines and push Herculean efforts onto workers. The Darwinian cull of the workforce continues until it is unsustainable.

The current recession/depression will not end with a new speculative boom; any recovery will need a new basis -- at the least, replacement of the threadbare, wrecked, and obsolete consumer goods. New technologies and new ways of doing business will have to create economic growth that is not so much a boom as a recovery.

Many people will have to do what they did in the 1930s: establish businesses -- unglamorous start-up enterprises that can undercut cartels and trusts. But let's remember: there is no better time than a depression for starting a business. Good help is easy to find; real estate is cheap; capital is cheap; plenty of used equipment (from businesses that went under) is available; inventories are cheap.  Sweat equity builds capital without bloated bureaucracies.
 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2009, 12:22:09 pm
The gap between Rasmussen and Gallup is widening again:

54-45 (nc, nc) vs. 67-28 (+4, -3 in the last 2 days)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 02, 2009, 12:33:47 pm
The gap between Rasmussen and Gallup is widening again:

54-45 (nc, nc) vs. 67-28 (+4, -3 in the last 2 days)
I'm going to say it's right in the middle of those 2. Probably about 60-35, which is average for a President at this time.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 02, 2009, 03:14:11 pm
Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2009, 03:50:52 pm
Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

Crap, they're showing what most other pollsters are. They're so terrible...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 02, 2009, 03:52:29 pm
Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

Crap, they're showing what most other pollsters are. They're so terrible...

Right. And by most other pollsters you mean CBS and WAPO? Thanks for playing.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2009, 12:26:20 am
Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

At least Gallup was better than Rasmussen in predicting Bush's approval on Election Day:

Gallup: 26-69

Rasmussen: 35-62

According to the Exit Poll: 28-72


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Zarn on May 03, 2009, 01:06:34 am
An exit poll is just that. Another poll.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on May 03, 2009, 01:09:59 am
SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

But it's kinda not relevant since it uses a different electorate composition than what voted in 2008.

1. There were polls of adults in 2008

2. The 2012 election is kinda not relevant since it uses a different electorate composition than what voted in 2008, or can be modeled by the current LV polls you've (IIRC) previously advocated

You're kind of annoying sometimes

An exit poll is just that. Another poll.

Not really -- Different flaws and benefits


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Zarn on May 03, 2009, 01:18:25 am
All polls have different 'flaws and benefits.'

It's just not hard enough data.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on May 03, 2009, 01:21:51 am
All polls have different 'flaws and benefits.'

In a very specific sense, yes.  But exit polls have a radically different methodology and sample than phone polls -- they are hence not "just...another poll."  That's what I meant, at least.

It's just not hard enough data.

What do you mean by "hard," and it's not hard enough for what?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on May 03, 2009, 01:54:04 am
This thread will be amusing when unemployment hits 12%.

I don't know, with GOP reactions like that, I'd say that it's pretty amusing right now. :)

You can pretty much put me in the Sam Spade level of pessimism camp on the economy.  I basically think we're in deep you-know-what for a couple of years no matter what we do, and it will come as no shock that I think almost every single thing Obama has done has made the problem bigger.  He misdiagnosed both the problem and the solution.

Bush is just as responsible, of course.  But what Obama's doing will not help any, obviously.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on May 03, 2009, 02:06:38 am
Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

At least Gallup was better than Rasmussen in predicting Bush's approval on Election Day:

Gallup: 26-69

Rasmussen: 35-62

According to the Exit Poll: 28-72

A poll conducted on Election Day is not the same as a poll conducted on Inauguration Day.  Come on.

I am still concerned about the distinction between IVR polls and phone polling - SUSA saying 58% approval with adults translates into somewhere near a Rasmussen (LV) @ 54% or a PPP (RV) @ 53%. (not to mention the higher disapprovals)

Does anyone else have a good explanation for this other than people lying to phone pollsters?   Well, other than people lying to machines and not to phone pollsters (not likely)?  There's only one phone poll not showing this distinction - Marist (and they show lower disapprovals)

Another point I would make is that if the distinction I am noting is accurate and if the IVR polls are picking up a lying distinction, then the "do-over" Alcon posted makes a lot of sense.

And leads to a much more interesting conclusion in my mind...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2009, 02:16:13 am
Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

At least Gallup was better than Rasmussen in predicting Bush's approval on Election Day:

Gallup: 26-69

Rasmussen: 35-62

According to the Exit Poll: 28-72

A poll conducted on Election Day is not the same as a poll conducted on Inauguration Day.  Come on.


The Rasmussen and Gallup polls I mentioned were not conducted on Inauguration Day, but between Nov. 2 and 4.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on May 03, 2009, 02:28:22 am
Gallup is a joke. Maybe they should use three different tracking polls like they did during the election. Maybe one of them will be close.

At least Gallup was better than Rasmussen in predicting Bush's approval on Election Day:

Gallup: 26-69

Rasmussen: 35-62

According to the Exit Poll: 28-72

A poll conducted on Election Day is not the same as a poll conducted on Inauguration Day.  Come on.


The Rasmussen and Gallup polls I mentioned were not conducted on Inauguration Day, but between Nov. 2 and 4.

ok, thanks.  My confusion.

The more interesting question is why Rasmussen was much closer in the actual result than Gallup considering the Bush approval calls.  I have a theory, naturally...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2009, 07:57:13 am
The latest Democracy Corps poll should also be noted, because they were very accurate in 2008:

They showed Obama vs. McCain at 51-44 in a 3-way race and 52-44 in a 2-way, the House at 52-42 (it ended up as 53-44) and Bush's approval at 30-64.

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/11/national-survey-7/?section=Survey

Now to their new likely voter poll (1000 actual 2008 voters and 851 likely 2010 voters):

58% Approve
32% Disapprove

2010 Congressional Vote:

50% Democrats
40% Republicans

http://www.democracycorps.com/download.php?attachment=dc10042609fq5web.pdf

So what is causing the discrepancy between them and Rasmussen, as they both use LV-models ? Why does Rasmussen show 13% higher disapprovals for Obama and why is there a 13% difference in the Congressional vote, desite the fact that DC was about as/or even more accurate in Nov. 2008 than Rasmussen ? Is it really like Sam Spade thinks that LV are lying to real people more than machines when they are polled ?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 03, 2009, 08:45:49 am
SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:

()


That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.








Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 03, 2009, 09:44:18 am
I just think one of the explanations has to be that people are more comfortable telling a machine that they disapprove of Obama than they are a live caller(for fear of being perceived racist, not wanting to look like you want him to fail, telling the pollster what you think they want to hear, etc.). The same is true of party ID. Because the Republican brand is tarnished now, people are more likely to tell a machine that they are Republican than they are a live caller.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 03, 2009, 09:47:00 am
I just think one of the explanations has to be that people are more comfortable telling a machine that they disapprove of Obama than they are a live caller(for fear of being perceived racist, not wanting to look like you want him to fail, telling the pollster what you think they want to hear, etc.). The same is true of party ID. Because the Republican brand is tarnished now, people are more likely to tell a machine that they are Republican than they are a live caller.

How many more times do we have to hear about the Bradley Effect?
I thought the last election proved once and for all that this thing is dead and buried, if it ever existed.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Zarn on May 03, 2009, 09:47:55 am
All polls have different 'flaws and benefits.'

In a very specific sense, yes.  But exit polls have a radically different methodology and sample than phone polls -- they are hence not "just...another poll."  That's what I meant, at least.

It's just not hard enough data.

What do you mean by "hard," and it's not hard enough for what?

Hard data is an actual count.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 03, 2009, 09:48:33 am
I just think one of the explanations has to be that people are more comfortable telling a machine that they disapprove of Obama than they are a live caller(for fear of being perceived racist, not wanting to look like you want him to fail, telling the pollster what you think they want to hear, etc.). The same is true of party ID. Because the Republican brand is tarnished now, people are more likely to tell a machine that they are Republican than they are a live caller.

How many more times do we have to hear about the Bradley Effect?
I thought the last election proved once and for all that this thing is dead and buried, if it ever existed.

It's not the Bradley Effect(learn what it actually is first). Can you give me an explanation why the numbers vary so widely?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 03, 2009, 09:51:09 am
I just think one of the explanations has to be that people are more comfortable telling a machine that they disapprove of Obama than they are a live caller(for fear of being perceived racist, not wanting to look like you want him to fail, telling the pollster what you think they want to hear, etc.). The same is true of party ID. Because the Republican brand is tarnished now, people are more likely to tell a machine that they are Republican than they are a live caller.

How many more times do we have to hear about the Bradley Effect?
I thought the last election proved once and for all that this thing is dead and buried, if it ever existed.

It's not the Bradley Effect(learn what it actually is first). Can you give me an explanation why the numbers vary so widely?

I know very well what the Bradley Effect is, thank you very much.
And I don't know why the polls differ. Different methodology perhaps.
But certainly no conspiracy theory about whites being afraid to say that they disapprove Obama.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2009, 12:04:42 pm
Obama-surge ?

Gallup: 68-26 (+5, -5 in the past 3 days)

Rasmussen: 56-43 (+2, -2)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2009, 12:07:19 pm
Obama-surge ?

Gallup: 68-26 (+5, -5 in the past 3 days)

Rasmussen: 56-43 (+2, -2)

Is it because of Wednesday's TV stint? The whole thing from the campaign of Obama's numbers going up if he's on TV.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 12:34:40 pm
maybe he should do what Blago can't and go on that reality show?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Zarn on May 03, 2009, 01:04:25 pm
I think a more negative sample simply came off in Rasmussen more so than an actual gain.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dan the Roman on May 04, 2009, 09:10:28 am
Still heading up:

Rasmussen 57(+1) 43(0)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Zarn on May 04, 2009, 10:26:53 am
Still, saying the same.

He went down to plus 1 in the stronglys, so it is not unreasonable that he bounces back.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Verily on May 04, 2009, 11:02:53 am
Still, saying the same.

He went down to plus 1 in the stronglys, so it is not unreasonable that he bounces back.

He's actually up to +5 on the Stronglys. Still, Rasmussen has been inclined to just bounce around its preferred number for a while, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down tomorrow.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 04, 2009, 11:07:47 am
Quinnipiac University
4/29 - 5/3/09; 1,120 registered voters, 2.9% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 66 / 29
Gov. Rendell: 53 / 38
Sen. Specter: 56 / 36
Sen. Casey: 55 /21


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 04, 2009, 11:16:24 am
Still, saying the same.

He went down to plus 1 in the stronglys, so it is not unreasonable that he bounces back.

He's actually up to +5 on the Stronglys. Still, Rasmussen has been inclined to just bounce around its preferred number for a while, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down tomorrow.

Based on the internals actually, it is most likely to go up tomorrow to 58% or either stay the same at 57%...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Zarn on May 04, 2009, 11:55:28 am
Seems that way, even from not having the internals...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 04, 2009, 11:58:27 am
Quinnipiac University
4/29 - 5/3/09; 1,120 registered voters, 2.9% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 66 / 29
Gov. Rendell: 53 / 38
Sen. Specter: 56 / 36
Sen. Casey: 55 /21

So much for Phil's claim that Pennsylvanians are dissapointed with Casey.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 04, 2009, 12:14:38 pm
Gallup

Approve 67%(-1)
Disapprove 27%(+1)

COLLAPSE!!!! OH NO!!!!!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2009, 12:49:56 pm
New York (Marist, 1029 RV, April 28-29):

64% Excellent/Good
34% Fair/Poor

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/nyspolls/ny090428/Obama%20Approval%20Rating.htm


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2009, 01:10:31 pm
Zogby Internet Poll of 3.367 Likely Voters (April 28-30):

Rate performance of Barack Obama in his first 100 days?

54% Positive
45% Negative

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1691


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 04, 2009, 01:36:16 pm
Zogby Internet Poll of 3.367 Likely Voters (April 28-30):

Rate performance of Barack Obama in his first 100 days?

54% Positive
45% Negative

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1691

WOW! Zogby Internet has him at 54%, he must be doing well.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rob on May 04, 2009, 03:55:34 pm
Zogby is the only pollster who hasn't sold out to the liberal Democrat Socialist Party, apparently.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 04, 2009, 05:02:36 pm
Liberal Democrat Fascist-Socialist Workers Party, apparently.

Didn't you get that memo?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Badger on May 04, 2009, 05:24:13 pm
SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:

()


That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.







FWIW: Doesn't GA also flip under this scenario?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 04, 2009, 06:51:54 pm
SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:

()


That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.







FWIW: Doesn't GA also flip under this scenario?


I didn't realize that Obama was within 4 points of winning Georgia -- and the difference is slightly more than 4%.

You are right, and I make a subtle correction for the Dakotas --

()

Nebraska and West Virginia get very close.



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on May 04, 2009, 07:48:39 pm
Zogby Internet Poll of 3.367 Likely Voters (April 28-30):

Rate performance of Barack Obama in his first 100 days?

54% Positive
45% Negative

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1691

Joke pollster.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 04, 2009, 07:58:36 pm
SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:

()


That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.







FWIW: Doesn't GA also flip under this scenario?


I didn't realize that Obama was within 4 points of winning Georgia -- and the difference is slightly more than 4%.

You are right, and I make a subtle correction for the Dakotas --

()

Nebraska and West Virginia get very close.



SC, ND and SD could switch given that Obama wins the South in this rematch and trounces McCain in the Midwest, which if I'm not mistaken, includes the Plains for polling purposes. A swing to McCain in the West, may see MT elude Obama


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2009, 01:15:33 pm
Very Important Polls (VIP's) today:

Maricopa County: 51% Excellent/Good, 44% Fair Poor

http://www.brcpolls.com/09/RMP%202009-II-01.pdf

Delaware:

62% Approve

http://www.ledgerdelaware.com/articles/2009/05/04/news/doc49ffa1c1afca0453799066.txt


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Verily on May 05, 2009, 01:47:58 pm
The Maricopa County poll is actually 51-20 because apparently they included "very poor" as an option, meaning "fair" was intended by context to be neutral. (Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor is a terrible way to measure opinion anyway because "Fair" has positive connotations.)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2009, 01:49:36 pm
Again, a rare feature from across the pond:

Italy Obama Approval by Digis S.r.l for SkyTG24:

72% Approve
28% Disapprove

PdL/Lega Nord Voters:

68% Approve
32% Disapprove

Partito Democratico Voters:

81% Approve
19% Disapprove

93% of Italians are also happy that Obama withdraws US-troops from Iraq by 2010.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzZrGs3yuDs


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rob on May 05, 2009, 03:37:24 pm
(Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor is a terrible way to measure opinion anyway because "Fair" has positive connotations.)

"Mediocre" would be a much better choice imo.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2009, 12:57:30 pm
Ohio (Quinnipiac, April 28-May 4):

62% Approve
31% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1295


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 06, 2009, 12:58:48 pm
Gallup

Approve 66%(-1)
Disapprove 27%(nc)

Inching back down towards reality.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2009, 01:00:57 pm
Gallup

Approve 66%(-1)
Disapprove 27%(nc)

Inching back down towards reality.

But Rasmussen's back up today to 57-43 (+1, nc).


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 06, 2009, 01:06:15 pm
Gallup

Approve 66%(-1)
Disapprove 27%(nc)

Inching back down towards reality.

But Rasmussen's back up today to 57-43 (+1, nc).

Reality(to me at least) is 60-62%.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2009, 01:32:32 pm
Gallup

Approve 66%(-1)
Disapprove 27%(nc)

Inching back down towards reality.

But Rasmussen's back up today to 57-43 (+1, nc).

Reality(to me at least) is 60-62%.

Yeah, it's probably been hovering at that point for a good few weeks. 60%'s a good guess.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 06, 2009, 02:24:02 pm
Very Important Polls (VIP's) today:

Maricopa County: 51% Excellent/Good, 44% Fair Poor

http://www.brcpolls.com/09/RMP%202009-II-01.pdf

Delaware:

62% Approve

http://www.ledgerdelaware.com/articles/2009/05/04/news/doc49ffa1c1afca0453799066.txt

Maricopa County is the political base of John McCain. In 2008 that was relevant. In 2012 that isn't.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2009, 11:50:20 pm
North Carolina (Civitas Institute, 600 Likely Voters, April 21-23)

60% Favorable
29% Unfavorable

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/civitas-poll-obama-popular-policies-not


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 07, 2009, 06:55:41 pm
Ipsos/McClatchey

Approve 65%
Disapprove 31%

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/67621.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 07, 2009, 11:51:49 pm
Pennsylvania (Research2000/DailyKos):

65% Favorable
28% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Pennsylvania Poll was conducted from May 4 through May 6, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/5/6/PA/304


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 08, 2009, 05:11:50 am
Latest update:

()


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ?????????? on May 08, 2009, 07:01:12 am
Great numbers for Obama. "You're doing a heck of a job Brownie!" hehe


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 08, 2009, 12:46:31 pm
Rasmussen:

58% Approve (+1)
41% Disapprove (-2)

Gallup:

66% Approve (-1)
28% Disapprove (+2)

California (Public Policy Institute of CA, April 27-May 4):

Adults (N=2005): 72% Approve, 20% Disapprove

Registered Voters (N=1515): 68% Approve, 24% Disapprove

Likely Voters (N=1080): 66% Approve, 26% Disapprove

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0509.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 08, 2009, 12:47:55 pm
So Obama's probably at around 60% nationally.  Good numbers for May.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 08, 2009, 03:06:32 pm
Wow, that's pretty sad that only just over half of California adults are considered likely voters.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 08, 2009, 05:52:22 pm
Wow, that's pretty sad that only just over half of California adults are considered likely voters.

Well the next election is November next year, nevermind presidential.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 11, 2009, 01:22:25 pm
Arizona (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 6):

49% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/arizona/toplines/toplines_john_mccain_and_arizona_may_6_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 11, 2009, 01:27:56 pm
Arizona (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 6):

49% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/arizona/toplines/toplines_john_mccain_and_arizona_may_6_2009

That's suprising... So much for it being in swing state territory. Or is that just sour grapes that their senator lost or something?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Zarn on May 11, 2009, 01:37:15 pm
Actually, McCain is not overwhelmingly popular in AZ right now. He does have enough, support, however.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 11, 2009, 06:04:47 pm
Latest update:

()

The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: War on Want on May 11, 2009, 07:05:20 pm
Arizona (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 6):

49% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/arizona/toplines/toplines_john_mccain_and_arizona_may_6_2009
This isn't as terrible as it seems. I think this confirms Arizona could be a swing state almost on the level of North Carolina and the state's demographics still have 4 years to change.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devilman88 on May 11, 2009, 08:16:39 pm
Latest update:

()

The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 12, 2009, 03:50:45 pm
Latest update:

()

The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

More PrObama than Rhode Island it seems on the map, lol.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 12, 2009, 05:24:55 pm
Latest update:

()

The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

More PrObama than Rhode Island it seems on the map, lol.

Sometimes it depends upon who took the last poll. I rounded a 65% to 70% for North Carolina, and Rhode Island hasn't been polled for a long time.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on May 12, 2009, 05:37:04 pm
Latest update:

()

The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

...and Arizona looks way too anti-Obama. Sometimes polls are wrong.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. RI on May 12, 2009, 05:41:04 pm
Latest update:

()

The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

More PrObama than Rhode Island it seems on the map, lol.

Sometimes it depends upon who took the last poll. I rounded a 65% to 70% for North Carolina, and Rhode Island hasn't been polled for a long time.

Why are you rounding?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Calvin and Hobbes on May 12, 2009, 06:48:39 pm
Latest update:

()

The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

I am. I'll move for this!!!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 13, 2009, 06:38:25 pm
CBSNews

Approve 63%(-5%)
Disapprove 26%(+3%)

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_obama_051309.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 14, 2009, 12:54:04 pm
Today we have

California (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 12):

59% Approve (Lol)
39% Disapprove (Lol)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/california/toplines/toplines_california_budget_crisis_may_12_2009

Missouri (Democracy Corps (D), 800 LV, April 28-30):

56% Approve
39% Disapprove

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/05/a-carnahan-advantage-in-missouri-senate-race/?section=Survey


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 14, 2009, 01:39:17 pm
FOX News:

60% Approve
30% Disapprove

The large partisan divide on Obama's performance continues: 93 percent of Democrats approve compared to 23 percent of Republicans. For independents, 57 percent approve.

Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from May 12 to May 13. The poll has a 3-point error margin.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,520210,00.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 14, 2009, 08:04:11 pm
Maryland is now the largest state in electoral votes still unpolled -- not that anyone expects any surprises.

More interesting? Mississippi and Nebraska. Maybe Nevada.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Vepres on May 14, 2009, 08:15:58 pm
Latest update:

()

The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

...and Arizona looks way too anti-Obama. Sometimes polls are wrong.

Perhaps, but the Phoenix metropolitan area is more conservative than say Denver or Las Vegas. Also, could there be some bitterness among Republican and Independent Arizonans over their favorite son's loss in the election?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 15, 2009, 12:00:18 am
New Jersey (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 12):

64% Approve
36% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/new_jersey/toplines/toplines_new_jersey_governor_may_12_2009


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 15, 2009, 12:04:04 am
Omaha, NE Obama approval (Wiese Research Associates):

(
Img
)

http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2798&u_sid=10634401


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2009, 05:59:04 am

Perhaps, but the Phoenix metropolitan area is more conservative than say Denver or Las Vegas. Also, could there be some bitterness among Republican and Independent Arizonans over their favorite son's loss in the election?

That could be.

But one interesting poll is out, and even though it applies to only one congressional district, that district actually has one meaningful electoral vote: NE-02, or Greater Omaha. That was the shakiest single electoral vote for Obama, and it can be discussed:

()

... even if it doesn't show.

NE-01, eastern Nebraska other than Omaha (largest city: Lincoln) could be interesting. Nebraska will likely split its electoral votes again in 2012.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2009, 08:03:50 am
This map, unlike previous ones, WILL show results for Nebraska and Maine, states that by law can split their electoral votes. Except in an utter disaster for Obama, Maine will not split its electoral votes; Nebraska barely did in 2008. Now that someone has polled NE-02, Obama's shakiest win in 2008, this map supersedes earlier ones: 


()

Obama's positive approval rating in Greater Omaha (NE-02) is stronger than his bare margin of  November 2008. It looks as if an election were to be held today between Obama and a generic GOP nominee (which could in theory still be John McCain), then Obama would win handily. He would win everything that he won in 2008 (I assume that he would win the District of Columbia, Maryland, Maine, Vermont, Hawaii, and Nevada, all of which were far beyond question after the 2008 election). 

I have rounded the results for North Carolina down (65% as "6" instead of "7").



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Franzl on May 15, 2009, 08:51:09 am
Do you seriously think Obama would get 65% in an election in North Carolina?

::)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2009, 08:58:13 am
Attempted translation into electoral results, 2012 with the whopper of an assumption that nothing really changes before then: 


()

Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
White -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

Obama                    418
Toss-up                     13
Generic Republican  107

It's obvious that there will be more polls.  At this stage I consider Montana and North Dakota "unpolled", Nebraska a tossup at large as it is unpolled except for one Congressional district, and Arkansas because it has too many contradictions.  No state in which Obama gets at least a 45% approval rating can be considered anything more than "barely Generic Republican".  In the absence of polls I go with Mississippi, Maryland, D.C., Vermont, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii  as they did in 2008. I "mute" Nevada for lack of polls and because the double-digit win could be a one-time event.  Although West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana give support in the positive range to Obama, he lost those states by huge margins so they can't be more than "weak Obama".   Although I recognize a strong positive (50%+) for Obama in Utah, I just can't imagine him winning the state.  

Much of this is arbitrary, and one poll can change things dramatically for one state. Much will change politically by 2012; most obviously, Obama absolutely won't be running against a "generic Republican" in 2012.
 






Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2009, 08:59:57 am
Do you seriously think Obama would get 65% in an election in North Carolina?

::)

Absolutely not. 55%, tops. An approval rating does not translate smoothly into voting.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 15, 2009, 01:35:51 pm
Missouri (Democracy Corps (D), 800 LV, April 28-30):

56% Approve
39% Disapprove

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/05/a-carnahan-advantage-in-missouri-senate-race/?section=Survey

And that coming from a sample which is 17% liberal; 32% moderate; and 46% conservative [according to the 2008 exits, they comprised 19%, 45% and 36%, respectively]


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devilman88 on May 15, 2009, 01:50:35 pm
PPP NC Poll (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_515.pdf)

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 51%
Disapprove...................................................... 41%
Not Sure.......................................................... 8%


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 15, 2009, 02:32:48 pm
PPP NC Poll (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_515.pdf)

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 51%
Disapprove...................................................... 41%
Not Sure.......................................................... 8%

Eventhough PPP is a dem leaning company, those are still pretty good numbers for NC.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 16, 2009, 01:57:57 pm
Do you seriously think Obama would get 65% in an election in North Carolina?

::)

Absolutely not. 55%, tops. An approval rating does not translate smoothly into voting.

More like 52%.  The last Democrat to break 55% in NC was Carter in 1976.  Only 1 Democrat has broken 45% since then, and that was Obama last year.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on May 16, 2009, 02:54:10 pm
Just for the record, the City of Omaha isn't contiguous with NE-2.  It's only about 2/3 of the district.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on May 16, 2009, 04:21:07 pm
Attempted translation into electoral results, 2012 with the whopper of an assumption that nothing really changes before then: 


()

Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
White -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

Obama                    418
Toss-up                     13
Generic Republican  107

It's obvious that there will be more polls.  At this stage I consider Montana and North Dakota "unpolled", Nebraska a tossup at large as it is unpolled except for one Congressional district, and Arkansas because it has too many contradictions.  No state in which Obama gets at least a 45% approval rating can be considered anything more than "barely Generic Republican".  In the absence of polls I go with Mississippi, Maryland, D.C., Vermont, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii  as they did in 2008. I "mute" Nevada for lack of polls and because the double-digit win could be a one-time event.  Although West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana give support in the positive range to Obama, he lost those states by huge margins so they can't be more than "weak Obama".   Although I recognize a strong positive (50%+) for Obama in Utah, I just can't imagine him winning the state.  

Much of this is arbitrary, and one poll can change things dramatically for one state. Much will change politically by 2012; most obviously, Obama absolutely won't be running against a "generic Republican" in 2012.
 







LOL

I'm with Fezzy now. It's amazing how much bull you spew in each of your posts, yet you come off as almost intelligent.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 16, 2009, 06:39:55 pm
I know my limitations, as shown in that map. I look at the approval rating, which I consider more significant than how Obama did in 2008. In relatively few States, the most recent poll suggests that Obama has popularity in the 50-60% range. That stands to be more relevant in 2012 than what Obama did in 2008. In 2008 Obama won or lost on his promises; in 2012 he runs on his record because he will have no chance to run from his record.  If Obama has an approval rating of 55% in Kentucky, then unless the GOP has strong ties to the area, Obama wins, and getting crushed there in 2008 won't matter in 2012. 

I look at the current positive rating for Obama, and if it is below 50% I give a marked edge to the Republican nominee, but it won't be large enough to suggest that Obama will get creamed there as he was in 2008. If Obama has an approval rating below 45% in a state and it is negative, then the state will go into "Strong Republican". Not even Oklahoma fits that category yet (and any state that as right-wing in its leanings as Oklahoma will not likely be close in 2012) .  I have good cause to believe that Obama will win Arizona, but right now the technique assigns Arizona to the Republicans, just as it now assigns Tennessee to Obama. A switch in those two will hardly surprise me. Perhaps many Arizonans have the hope that John McCain will be the GOP nominee in 2012.

Obama has very slight positive ratings in Utah, Georgia, and South Carolina -- but I have no cause to believe that Obama will win any of them should nothing change.  I assign them as "slight Republican", suggesting that the Republican will win those states by minuscule margins.  Obama can win Utah under some freakish circumstances, but it's too early for me to predict any freakish circumstances.

OK -- so how can I project Obama victories in Louisiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky for now?  The positive ratings are significant, and I choose to consider them more significant than the 2008 election. Arkansas would be in the same group -- except that Huckabee could be the GOP nominee for VP, and that makes Arkansas too difficult to predict... for now.

South Dakota? The current strong positive is more powerful than the 2008 result. Such is the rule.

Now, as for states not yet polled....

Does anyone now think that if Obama does well in New Hampshire, that he won't do exceedingly well in Maine and Vermont in 2012 as in 2008? Does anyone expect Obama to not do well in Maryland or Dee Cee? Neighboring states that are politically analogous suggest that nothing will change.  Hawaii has no neighboring state, so I use its 2008 results.  The same is true of Alaska, so I must assume that it will vote in 2012 as in 2008 until I see indications to the contrary. Idaho? Wyoming? They are more analogous to each other than to any other states -- even Utah. If polls in either state suggest that they give Obama about the same level of support as Utah, then I reduce them.

Montana and especially North Dakota have a good analogue in South Dakota, and my model calls them toss-ups until I see otherwise. I haven't shown as much certitude on Nevada; even though it voted for Obama by a double-digit margin, that was a shock on November 4, 2008; I attribute that to the mortgage meltdown which won't be repeated. I can easily put Nevada into the "Strong Obama" category with any poll that shows an approval rating above 55%.

Now -- swing states of 2008. Colorado is in the weak Obama category because of a very thin positive poll and its 2008 performance. An earlier poll was more positive, but I go with the more recent one.  Such is the rule. An average of 2008 performance and the most recent polls put Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri (which Obama lost -- barely), and Indiana   into the "Weak Obama" category. Ohio goes into the strong zone, as do Iowa and New Hampshire. Swing states of 2008 will be very interesting for a very long time in 2012.

Finally -- Nebraska. NE-02 (Greater Omaha) barely barely voted for Obama, but support for Obama in that district is about ten points higher. NE-01 is more  GOP-leaning, but not that much more, so I could just as easily color it "Barely Republican" as "Barely Democratic". Eastern Nebraska is much like western Iowa. As you will see I couldn't call it a tossup in my map because I colored the toss-ups white, and that would make NE-01 disappear.

Nebraska is politically between Kansas (my scheme shows it "Barely Republican" and South Dakota "Barely Obama"). That suggests a toss-up. NE-03 of course is one of the most right-wing districts in America; it would vote for a liberal Democrat only against a madman, commie, fascist, or KKK member.

Nobody knows who the Republican nominee will be, and that will decide to no small extent which states Obama will win and which ones he will lose. If it's Huckabee, then Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and likely Georgia are off limits to Obama; political culture matters greatly.  Positive ratings for Obama just won't be enough for him to win those states. If it's Romney, then Obama likely wins all of those states -- and Arkansas. 

Not the big qualification I give: if nothing really changes before 2012. That is a huge assumption, as all sorts of weird events can transpire. One thing is certain: nobody knows who the GOP nominee will be.  I can imagine Obama picking off Utah against Huckabee and losing it by a 75-25 margin to Romney. I can still imagine one of the GOP candidates dropping out early and running on the Reform ticket, which really messes things up.

Above all else, Obama could still fail as President. There's plenty of time for that. There's plenty of time for a nutty leader in Iran or North Korea to do something incredibly stupid and cruel. The Big Three automakers could go bankrupt, and subsidized banks could fail. It is conceivable that some natural disaster could catch Obama off guard and overtax his abilities as Hurricane Katrina showed how incompetent Dubya was. The Stock Market could conceivably go to 2000. It's also possible that America could undergo a new Religious Revival that causes Americans to support a strident anti-abortion, pro-business, anti-environmentalist, anti-union candidate who rides such a tide.  All of those are possible, and I can imagine many Americans seeking to renew their passports if such happens. Likely? Probably not. It's also possible that Usama bin Laden ends up in US custody -- or that we get to see his cadaver somewhere.

Some of my choices are arbitrary -- and they are on the margin. Look at Utah.  They show the limitations of my knowledge -- limitations that everyone has. My assumption that on the net nothing happens to change things is an average of the possibilities is itself a whopper of an assumption.   



 
 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 17, 2009, 12:43:40 pm
CA-8 SurveyUSA

Approve 84%
Disapprove 13%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2328c94e-0f2f-4290-9293-7d4f2e11cd74


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Saxwsylvania on May 17, 2009, 01:04:29 pm
CA-8 SurveyUSA

Approve 84%
Disapprove 13%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2328c94e-0f2f-4290-9293-7d4f2e11cd74

Why?  Just why?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 17, 2009, 01:05:51 pm
CA-8 SurveyUSA

Approve 84%
Disapprove 13%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2328c94e-0f2f-4290-9293-7d4f2e11cd74

Why?  Just why?

Because it is San Francisco and Obama got 85% there ?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Saxwsylvania on May 17, 2009, 01:07:59 pm
CA-8 SurveyUSA

Approve 84%
Disapprove 13%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2328c94e-0f2f-4290-9293-7d4f2e11cd74

Why?  Just why?

Because it is San Francisco and Obama got 85% there ?

Alas, my question was not one of despair, but of bewilderment.  Who in the world blows their money on a poll for San Francisco?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 17, 2009, 01:09:26 pm
Gallup

Approve 63%(-2)
Disapprove 30%(+2)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 17, 2009, 01:13:43 pm
CA-8 SurveyUSA

Approve 84%
Disapprove 13%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2328c94e-0f2f-4290-9293-7d4f2e11cd74

Why?  Just why?

Because it is San Francisco and Obama got 85% there ?

Alas, my question was not one of despair, but of bewilderment.  Who in the world blows their money on a poll for San Francisco?

The poll actually has some news:

Republicans and Independents don't like Pelosi in her own district.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 17, 2009, 01:26:13 pm
CA-8 SurveyUSA

Approve 84%
Disapprove 13%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2328c94e-0f2f-4290-9293-7d4f2e11cd74

Why?  Just why?

Because it is San Francisco and Obama got 85% there ?

Alas, my question was not one of despair, but of bewilderment.  Who in the world blows their money on a poll for San Francisco?

The poll actually has some news:

Republicans and Independents don't like Pelosi in her own district.

That's suprising, I thought Republicans were totally in love with Speaker Pelosi.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Alcon on May 17, 2009, 03:58:02 pm
Obama's approval rating is +26 among San Francisco Republicans, and Schwarzenegger's is -7.  Funny.  Tiny sample but weird.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2009, 12:36:05 am
A new Mason-Dixon Nevada poll will be out soon.

But I don't know how reliable Mason-Dixon is after showing only a 4-point Obama win in Nevada, when he really won it by 13% ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 18, 2009, 04:19:44 pm
A new Mason-Dixon Nevada poll will be out soon.

But I don't know how reliable Mason-Dixon is after showing only a 4-point Obama win in Nevada, when he really won it by 13% ...

In all fairness, did anyone get NV right? I remember PPP also had a 4 point spread.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 18, 2009, 04:21:19 pm
A new Mason-Dixon Nevada poll will be out soon.

But I don't know how reliable Mason-Dixon is after showing only a 4-point Obama win in Nevada, when he really won it by 13% ...

In all fairness, did anyone get NV right? I remember PPP also had a 4 point spread.

Zogby had a 10 point lead on 11/3.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 18, 2009, 05:05:40 pm
New York- Rasmussen

Approve 65%
Disapprove 32%



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 19, 2009, 05:59:45 am
CNN

Approve 62%
Disapprove 35%

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_national_survey_cnn51415.php


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2009, 12:39:41 pm
Minnesota (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 18):

44% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_senate_may_18_2009

WTF !???


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on May 19, 2009, 12:40:27 pm
Minnesota (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 18):

44% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_senate_may_18_2009

WTF !???

LOL


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devilman88 on May 19, 2009, 12:45:24 pm
Minnesota (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 18):

44% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_senate_may_18_2009

WTF !???

LOL

Maybe they mixed the numbers up...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2009, 12:45:41 pm
Minnesota (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 18):

44% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_senate_may_18_2009

WTF !???

LOL

Enter BRTD or Snowguy - immediately - to explain why MN has turned into a traitor-state ... !


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Franzl on May 19, 2009, 12:48:44 pm
It's called an outlier ;)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2009, 01:06:42 pm
Democracy Corps (D), May 10-12:

Among 1000 2008 voters:

59% Approve
33% Disapprove

Composition of sample: 40% DEM, 32% GOP, 27% IND

Among 852 likely 2010 voters:

58% Approve
33% Disapprove

Composition of sample: 39% DEM, 34% GOP, 27% IND

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/05/obama-closes-the-democrats-historical-national-security-gap


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2009, 01:09:50 pm
Nevada (Mason-Dixon, May 12-14, 625 RV):

55% Favorable
30% Unfavorable

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/may_2009_3_polls.html


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 19, 2009, 03:16:49 pm
Minnesota (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 18):

44% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_senate_may_18_2009

WTF !???

From your link I see that Obama's numbers are 66-33.

You must have mixed them up with Al Franken's and Norm Coleman's approval ratings.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 19, 2009, 03:39:07 pm
Minnesota (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 18):

44% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_senate_may_18_2009

WTF !???

Obama is at 66/33, Coleman and Franken are both at 44/55.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devilman88 on May 19, 2009, 06:52:59 pm
Minnesota (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 18):

44% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_senate_may_18_2009

WTF !???

Obama is at 66/33, Coleman and Franken are both at 44/55.

They changed it. It was 44/55, I guess Rasmussen changed the numbers.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 19, 2009, 07:19:51 pm
Updated map:

()

66% Minnesota, 55% Nevada... eleven states outstanding.

Mississippi anyone? North Dakota? Montana?

Colorado or Arizona again?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Vepres on May 19, 2009, 07:21:50 pm
Updated map:

()

66% Minnesota, 55% Nevada... eleven states outstanding.

Mississippi anyone? North Dakota? Montana?

Colorado or Arizona again?

Very interesting. I wonder if Colorado and Arizona are outliers, or if the mountain west libertarianism is starting to show itself. I really didn't expect him to have low approvals out here this early, but if these polls aren't outliers, I can see why.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 19, 2009, 07:44:56 pm

(snip)

Colorado or Arizona again?

Very interesting. I wonder if Colorado and Arizona are outliers, or if the mountain west libertarianism is starting to show itself. I really didn't expect him to have low approvals out here this early, but if these polls aren't outliers, I can see why.

Possible explanation. I would have never expected Colorado to be a near-tossup with Obama holding a 60% nationwide approval. Coloradans and Arizonans might vote differently from that pattern in 2012 if the GOP nominee is not a libertarian. I can't see any potential GOP nominee (that of course excludes Ron Paul, who would do very well in the Mountain West if he were nominated) as a libertarian.

Who runs will matter greatly. The only question about Obama as the nominee for the Democratic Party has an actuarial answer.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devilman88 on May 19, 2009, 09:36:45 pm
Updated map:

()

66% Minnesota, 55% Nevada... eleven states outstanding.

Mississippi anyone? North Dakota? Montana?

Colorado or Arizona again?

NC should be 50%


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2009, 11:45:40 pm
Minnesota (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 18):

44% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/minnesota/toplines/toplines_minnesota_senate_may_18_2009

WTF !???

Obama is at 66/33, Coleman and Franken are both at 44/55.

Yes, it was definitely a typo by Rasmussen. Considering that Rasmussen had Obama at 58-41 nationally in the previous 3 days, 66% approval in Minnesota is pretty good.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on May 19, 2009, 11:55:35 pm
I think some of you are overestimating how "libertarian" states like Colorado and Arizona actually are...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 20, 2009, 12:50:49 am
I think some of you are overestimating how "libertarian" states like Colorado and Arizona actually are...

If as the bromide goes, a conservative is a liberal who was just mugged...

a libertarian stranded in a traffic jam begins to think of the government as a possible solution.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Badger on May 20, 2009, 07:51:56 am
I think some of you are overestimating how "libertarian" states like Colorado and Arizona actually are...

If as the bromide goes, a conservative is a liberal who was just mugged...

a libertarian stranded in a traffic jam begins to think of the government as a possible solution.

And a liberal is a conservative who's just been downsized.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2009, 12:57:21 pm
New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

67% Approve
27% Disapprove

The President gets a 93 - 4 nod from Democrats and a 63 - 29 percent OK from independent voters, while Republicans disapprove 60 - 32 percent.

From May 12 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,532 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1300


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Vepres on May 20, 2009, 10:50:33 pm
I think some of you are overestimating how "libertarian" states like Colorado and Arizona actually are...

I consider myself a moderate libertarian, and many independents and Republicans I meet out here (Denver and Boulder regions) have a libertarian streak. Maybe not as extreme as the libertarian party itself, or even myself, but still undeniably libertarian leaning. The thing is, liberals in my area of the state are very liberal, which overwhelms the libertarian vote. However, if these approval ratings prove accurate, than I would be tempted to say that small government, state's rights voters are the reason for it (these people voted for Obama because they no longer trusted the Republican party).


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2009, 12:11:38 am
PPP will release Obama's approval in Oklahoma today.

Based on their early glimpse that 31% of Democrats in the state disapprove of Obama, I´m estimating Obama's standing in the state at 36% approve and 55% disapprove.

Let's see what the real numbers show ...


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2009, 09:22:41 am
Alabama (Anzalone-Liszt Research (D) for Artur Davis, 600 LV, May 5-9):

"58 percent of voters approve of Obama's performance, including 46 percent of white voters.  In addition, 87 percent of white Democrats and 57 percent of independents approve of Obama’s performance."

http://www.arturdavis2010.com/release_details.asp?id=65

Interesting, because the last Alabama poll by SUSA (600 adults) had Obama at only 48%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c643766a-9eb3-42a5-a1ce-38215e0aa02b


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on May 21, 2009, 09:43:21 am
Alabama (Anzalone-Liszt Research (D) for Artur Davis, 600 LV, May 5-9):

"58 percent of voters approve of Obama's performance, including 46 percent of white voters.  In addition, 87 percent of white Democrats and 57 percent of independents approve of Obama’s performance."

http://www.arturdavis2010.com/release_details.asp?id=65

Interesting, because the last Alabama poll by SUSA (600 adults) had Obama at only 48%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c643766a-9eb3-42a5-a1ce-38215e0aa02b


Interesting outlier.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2009, 09:55:11 am
PPP will release Obama's approval in Oklahoma today.

Based on their early glimpse that 31% of Democrats in the state disapprove of Obama, I´m estimating Obama's standing in the state at 36% approve and 55% disapprove.

Let's see what the real numbers show ...

The actual numbers from PPP are:

38% Approve
56% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OK_521.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 21, 2009, 02:26:45 pm
NC should be 50%

Most of them should be lighter, he has this weird rounding thing he's doing to make Obama look more popular.

I did round up the 56% disapproval in Oklahoma.

Translation:

Disapproval greater than approval:

darkest "yellow" -- 56-65% (Oklahoma)
darkened  yellow -- 50-55%
pale yellow -- under 50% but larger than approval

Exact equality -- probably white, but none show.

palest green -- under 50%, but more than disapproval
medium green --   50-55%
darkened green -- 56-65%
dark green -- 66-75%
very dark green --76-85%


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on May 21, 2009, 02:52:26 pm
Oklahoma. lol.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Badger on May 21, 2009, 03:23:29 pm
Alabama (Anzalone-Liszt Research (D) for Artur Davis, 600 LV, May 5-9):

"58 percent of voters approve of Obama's performance, including 46 percent of white voters.  In addition, 87 percent of white Democrats and 57 percent of independents approve of Obama’s performance."

http://www.arturdavis2010.com/release_details.asp?id=65

Interesting, because the last Alabama poll by SUSA (600 adults) had Obama at only 48%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c643766a-9eb3-42a5-a1ce-38215e0aa02b


Interesting outlier.

Which one? The 48% approval rating or the 58% one? Or maybe just high end MOE combined with small actual changes in approval/disapproval?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 21, 2009, 03:24:29 pm
Virginia according to Research 2000:

Approve 56%
Disapprove 40%

According to the same poll, Mcdonnell would win easily against any Democrat so it's definitely not a biased poll

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/5/20/VA/305


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 21, 2009, 03:32:50 pm

Updated map:

()

Alabama looks like an outlier, but I follow the rule of using the latest poll. Oklahoma makes more sense (56% disapproval, and I round that up). Oklahoma could go 60-40 for the GOP in an Obama landslide in 2012.  Virginia is also at 56% approval, and that's hardly surprising, considering how it voted.



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 21, 2009, 03:35:46 pm
Oklahoma. lol.

Seriously, I'm thinking right now what Sergeant Foley said about Oklahoma. 


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 21, 2009, 03:40:03 pm
Oklahoma. lol.

Two Senators best described as border-line fascists. Few states have even one.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 21, 2009, 04:20:12 pm
ARG
Approve 61%
Disapprove 32%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on May 21, 2009, 06:00:24 pm
Oklahoma. lol.

Seriously, I'm thinking right now what Sergeant Foley said about Oklahoma. 

Sgt Foley: "You a queer?"
Sid Worley: "Hell no sir!"
Sgt Foley: "Where you from, boy?"
Sid Worley: "Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, sir."
Sgt Foley: "Ah! Only two things come out of Oklahoma. Steers and queers."


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2009, 12:11:47 am
Winthrop / ETV Poll of 11 southern states:

(
Img
)

49% Approve
38% Disapprove

This Winthrop/ETV Poll was conducted among 955 registered voters from AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, and VA between May 1 and May 17, 2009. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of registered voters in these states. Data utilizing all respondents has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.17 percent. As is true with all survey data, any results that use a subset of the respondents will have a higher margin of error.

http://www.scetv.org/index.php/winthrop/results/10/0/65/


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on May 22, 2009, 12:33:01 am
Attempted translation into electoral results, 2012 with the whopper of an assumption that nothing really changes before then: 


()

Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
White -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

Obama                    418
Toss-up                     13
Generic Republican  107

It's obvious that there will be more polls.  At this stage I consider Montana and North Dakota "unpolled", Nebraska a tossup at large as it is unpolled except for one Congressional district, and Arkansas because it has too many contradictions.  No state in which Obama gets at least a 45% approval rating can be considered anything more than "barely Generic Republican".  In the absence of polls I go with Mississippi, Maryland, D.C., Vermont, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii  as they did in 2008. I "mute" Nevada for lack of polls and because the double-digit win could be a one-time event.  Although West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana give support in the positive range to Obama, he lost those states by huge margins so they can't be more than "weak Obama".   Although I recognize a strong positive (50%+) for Obama in Utah, I just can't imagine him winning the state.  

Much of this is arbitrary, and one poll can change things dramatically for one state. Much will change politically by 2012; most obviously, Obama absolutely won't be running against a "generic Republican" in 2012.
 






That's a very hopeful map for Obama.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2009, 12:40:14 am
That's a very hopeful map for Obama.

I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on May 22, 2009, 12:50:00 am
That's a very hopeful map for Obama.

I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

Utah at less than 5% margin for Republican - I thought that was just crazy.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lunar on May 22, 2009, 12:52:05 am
That's a very hopeful map for Obama.

I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

You're wrong.  If Obama doesn't win all of those [if not more LOL] you can color me surprised.


You can choose the color you want too:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Crayola_crayon_colors


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 22, 2009, 01:54:17 am
That's a very hopeful map for Obama.

I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

That map is already obsolete due to later polls. This is my more recent map, and in it I have exchanged white for yellow because yellow shows electoral votes better than does white:

()

Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
Yellow -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

For example, Nevada has been polled. It consolidates my assessment that anything that Obama won by 10% or more in 2008 is out of reach, and I need not wait for Maine, Vermont, or Maryland.

A more recent poll for Oklahoma suggests what about everyone reasonably thinks -- that Obama can be defeated there by about a 60-40 margin even if he wins nationwide at a 60-40 spread. I saw a poll for Alabama that gives Obama a 58% approval rating... not that I fully believe it.  But I have cause to believe that a 56% positive rating in Virginia is genuine, as that is close to the vote for Obama in 2008, and that is enough to put Virginia in the "solid Obama" category. West Virginia gave Obama about a 60% approval rating, suggesting that the depiction of Obama as an environmental extremist out to 'punish coal' may be unfounded. If the GOP won on that canard in 2008 and it remains a canard in 2012, then Obama wins West Virginia.

The Alabama poll suggests that some of those surprisingly-high ratings in some of the southeastern and south-central states in which Obama got clobbered in 2008 are genuine.  It's hard for me to believe that Obama is viewed more positively in Alabama than in Georgia -- but such reflects the latest polls. It could be an outlier. But note well -- the "Mid-South" (AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, and TN) is several states that generally move together in recent years. Those states may be easier to figure than Texas, which has no political analogue. Mississippi has yet to be polled, so I guess.

How could Obama be more popular in the South now than on November 4, 2008? He might not be. Those states have a strong heritage of admiration for the military, and they may have voted for McCain because of that heritage. McCain will not be the GOP nominee in 2012, and none of the likely GOP nominees has any military record.

I think that Mike Huckabee picks up all states of the South not on the Atlantic coast, and that if he is a VP candidate, he still wins Arkansas if not all other such states. But he has to get the nomination to do that. Romney and Palin have no connections to the South.

I don't know which to believe about Alabama: the 38% vote for Obama, the recent 48% approval rating, or the current 58% approval rating.  An average suggests a toss-up. Nebraska? At-large, Nebraska was in between South Dakota and Kansas, and the 62% approval rating for NE-02 suggests a gain in NE-01. Districts of Nebraska are shown left-to-right with an increasing number to the right, which is geographically absurd for Nebraska. NE-03 is one of the most right-wing congressional districts in America, and I have it as "Strong (generic) Republican". It offers the surest electoral vote or votes for a generic Republican. NE-01? More GOP-leaning than NE-02, but Nebraska went for McCain only by 13%, and NE-03 went for something like thirty. NE-01 and NE at large are thus undecided.

Of course it looks very hopeful for Obama, suggesting an Eisenhower-scale, if not Reagan-scale or LBJ-scale, landslide in 2012. It suggests that Obama will win everything that he won in 2008 except Colorado at least firmly, and everything that was close. The southern states are daring.

 

 



Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Mikado on May 22, 2009, 11:01:51 am
Winthrop / ETV Poll of 11 southern states:

(
Img
)

49% Approve
38% Disapprove

This Winthrop/ETV Poll was conducted among 955 registered voters from AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, and VA between May 1 and May 17, 2009. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of registered voters in these states. Data utilizing all respondents has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.17 percent. As is true with all survey data, any results that use a subset of the respondents will have a higher margin of error.

http://www.scetv.org/index.php/winthrop/results/10/0/65/

I see I'm not the only person who defines the "South" as the 11 states of the former Confederacy.  I must say that it always throws me when people refer to KY or MO as "Southern" rather than as "Border States."

(OK is marginal...it was a Confederate territory, after all)


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 22, 2009, 01:13:39 pm
That's a very hopeful map for Obama.

I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

Utah at less than 5% margin for Republican - I thought that was just crazy.

So do I -- but Obama's most recent approval rating in Utah was above 50%.

Mitt Romney will absolutely crush Obama in Utah even if Obama has a 60% approval rating there. But I can see Obama winning Utah against Huckabee, Palin, or especially Gingrich. The Mormons pay much attention to "family values" -- and so far those of Obama look far better than those of Palin or Gingrich (or for that matter Bill Clinton). As for Huckabee -- he has said some nasty things about the LDS Church, and Obama hasn't.

We don't know who will be the 2012 GOP nominee for President, do we? We don't even know whether there will be a strong third-party candidate, do we?


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 22, 2009, 01:21:18 pm
That's a very hopeful map for Obama.

I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

Utah at less than 5% margin for Republican - I thought that was just crazy.

So do I -- but Obama's most recent approval rating in Utah was above 50%.

Mitt Romney will absolutely crush Obama in Utah even if Obama has a 60% approval rating there. But I can see Obama winning Utah against Huckabee, Palin, or especially Gingrich. The Mormons pay much attention to "family values" -- and so far those of Obama look far better than those of Palin or Gingrich (or for that matter Bill Clinton). As for Huckabee -- he has said some nasty things about the LDS Church, and Obama hasn't.

We don't know who will be the 2012 GOP nominee for President, do we? We don't even know whether there will be a strong third-party candidate, do we?

You're probably being to hopeful there. Huckabee maybe though.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Rowan on May 22, 2009, 02:47:31 pm
OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 22, 2009, 08:01:11 pm
OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devilman88 on May 22, 2009, 09:36:46 pm
OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.


Title: Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 22, 2009, 09:48:01 pm
OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.

I'm dead right. Mormons hate Huckabee. Many will stay home on election day. The whole southwest is trending Democrat. A strong Obama term + Huckabee as the Republican nominee = Utah going Democrat


Title: Re: The Offic