Talk Elections

Well this certainly clears things up.. :)

2 Way LV

Kerry 46
Bush 45

3 Way LV

Bush 45
kerry 45
Nader 1

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm (http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm)

It is now official...

The world has gone mad :)

hahaha . . . Don't worry, Vorlon.  In just a few more weeks, you can rest your brain.  :)

Kerry gains 4 among likely and one among registered. This is definitely not a good poll for Bush if its true, though it probably doesn't matter a whole lot what the race is today because it will change a lot after Thursday night, we will see.

I am now more certain than I have ever been that the outcome of the election is uncertain

Interestig to look at IBD/CSM/TIPP's trends:

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Sept. 22-27, 2004. N=907 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3.3); 649 likely voters (MoE ± 4).
 
"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry or Republican George W. Bush?"  
Among likely voters:

                                             Bush      Kerry     Unsure  
9/22-27/04                              45          46            9    
9/14-18/04                              46          43            11    
9/7-12/04                                47          47            6    
   
 Among registered voters:
 
 9/22-27/04                            44         44           11    
 9/14-18/04                            44         43           13    
 9/7-12/04                              44         46           10

Great quote.  :)

Its a TIPP poll!

Right in their with Democracy Corps and Zogby.

:)

I thought the Vorlon regarded TIPP has a very good firm.

TIPP actually is quite a good firm IMHO(though Carl and I disagree on this one)

Hey any one firm can can lay an egg on any one poll.

Don't think TIPP has layed an egg yet this year, maybe this is their opportunity :)

As I always say...

Polls... trust 'em by the Dozen, ignore them one by one...

One poll is a "blip"...
Two polls is a "maybe"
Three polls is "Might be true"
10 polls I trust... unless they are wrong ;)

Do you have the demographics on the TIPP poll cited?

Unless they are really overloading with Democrats, this result is rather hard to believe.

After considerable study, I believe the current realistic breakdown for likely voters is:

Democrats          38%

Republicans        37

Others                25

Also look at the date of the poll (9/7-12).  This was in the aftermath of the Republican convention when the other (credible) polls were in major disagreement.

I'm more than a little suspicious of a poll which is taken over more than three days.

Also, why the delayed release?

The poll cited was taken more  than two weeks ago!

Party ID... the $64,000,000 questions :)

I actually think you are darn close at +1 to the Dem side, I might have said even, but I can certainly live with +1.

It also depends a bit on how you ask the question a bit and would reprase the issue a bit:

About a third of all adults when you ask will, on the first pass, answer that they are an "independant" but if you ask a followup for a "soft" party ID asking something like "Which party do you somewhat lean towards" this 1/3 divided up with a fairly strong break to the GOP side.

So if you ask a "hard" party ID question

"Are you registered as a Democrat, Republican, or an Independant"

you get roughly

Dems 35
Gop 32
Indys 33

(Number of self proclaimed indys is rising BTW)

But among this 33% who are on a first pass "independant" a plurality when pressed will "lean" towards the GOP.

If you beat with a stick (as Gallup for example does) these indys to get an even vague party ID this 33 breaks roughly:

33% Indys =>
     8 "Soft Dems"
     11% "Soft" GOP
     14% "hard core" Independants.

When you put it together and hammer the indys for a "soft" party ID you thus get:

Dems 43%
GOP 43%
Indys 14%

Given that a lot of these party ID's are "soft" needless to say the bounce around a fair bit from poll to poll.

Why do you have a difference in the titles between your TIPP posting and your PEW posting?

If Kerry argues the points he should on thursday, the race goes back to a dead heat.  Election night is only gonna be exciting if i know Kerry has a chance to win.  I'm not watching Bush get re-elected for 4 hours.  

The left now has a new favorite poll replacing Pew.

Actually Vorlorn, if you take a "Poll of All Polls" Good, Bad, and Ugly.....you get quite a different picture.......about a +1.35% to Bush.

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Its interesting that its the Time, NYT/CBS, Newsweek, and Gallup polls that have kept Bush's numbers inflated by WIDE margins IMO. Yet, Rasussen, TIPP, Dem Corps, Zogby, YouGov/Economist and others all show the race (still with a small Bush lead) but much, much closer nationally.

BTW, TIPP has pretty consistantly shown this race to be much closer, as I posted earlier in this thread......

At any rate.....a "dozen" polls are showing a pretty unmistakable trend......the race is closing.

Your graph leaves out the latest Pew poll and IBD/TIPP poll released today, in addition to the new Gallup, ABC/WaPo, Time, Marist, NBC/WSJ

Fox News, Tarrance Battleground and AP/Ipsos polls are nowhere to be found on your graph, yet they are more highly respected than some of the polls you have on here.

Democracy Corps is a Dem polling firm and in my mind therefore suspect.  I wouldn't give any more credence to an Ayres McHenry poll or any other Rep polling firm over other neutral ones.

Please correct this and then we can talk about what's happening in the race because I can guarantee that the figures will appear much different.

Watch this poll get disgarded by the right.

The above chart ends at 09/20. There were some improvments for Kerry after 9/20. In my estimate Kerry is currently behind by  approximately 2%.

In the latest TIPP poll Kerry gets 46% and Bush 45%.
In the previous TIPP poll Kerry got 43% and Bush 46%.
The gap has changed by 4%. You can say that Kerry went up by 2 and Bush went down by 2%.

If we do the above comparisons (the latest vs. the previous or before 9/20 and after 9/20) on the polling numbers of the other firms we’ll get the following improvements for Kerry:

TIPP +2
CNN +2.5
ABC +1.5
PEW –2.5 (Improvement for Bush)
Time +4
Rasmussen +1.5 (I picked 9/18 as ‘previous’)

On the average Kerry improved by 1.5% and Bush went down by 1.5%
Could well be that some of the polling methods are not good, but I am comparing two polls of the same polling firm on two different dates.

I take all polls seriously, except for partisan polls and Zogby Interactive junk.  Harris Interactive polls are ok by me.  I don't know about You Gov, since they have no track record, but I'd be willing to put them on a list.

The only people I know around here who excluding polls around here are the libs, who can't stand any result that puts their candidate behind.

Look, Shira, just put in the polls that I mentioned earlier, including the Harris Interactive poll out today and regraph.  What you'll find is that after a slight dip, Bush has regained most of the lead that he had before.