Talk Elections

Alright, I am starting to get a little excited :)

No Jersey candidate (spare Forrester before the switch-aroo) has lead by this much

New FDU Poll shows Christie 41 - Corzine 32

http://www.politickernj.com/files/FDU030409.pdf

I was watching a debate from over the weekend and the moderator brought up the issue of abortion and the appointment of Supreme Court judges. The next Governor is expected to appoint (or re-appoint) at least three justices.

Take a look at these polls and remind yourself that the Republican candidates range from standard Pro Life to very Pro Life. You need to have Christie consistently poll above 50% and Corzine stuck in the low 40s for the GOP to have a chance. Sure, he's up by a lot now but he's at 41%. We know that the Dems and Independents break a certain way in NJ.

By the way, it's hilarious that Corzine only leads Lonegan by four. If the voters knew how Pro Life Lonegan is, Corzine would lead by forty.

     Maybe New Jersey will make the right choice after all. :) It's disturbing though that it seems to be the case that Corzine's numbers are falling rather than Christie's rising.

Typical case of Jerseyitis.

Oh New Jersey, you are such a flirt.

Is there any state more cynical that New Jersey?

1.  Yeah, well, a lot of NJ Democrats don't like their own politicians.
2.  Also, it's very, very important to note that a lot of New Jersey types barely even know their own politicians because New Jersey doesn't have its own media market -- the NYC and Phillie media markets cover the entire state.  Once the election heats up with campaign advertising, then the liberals are reminded why they like liberals.

No. The case is quite clear; in order to make a meaningful comparison between approval ratings in New Jersey and elsewhere, you must be adjust the New Jersey numbers upwards about ten points (sometimes more). There are then places like the Dakotas where you have to adjust approval ratings downwards about ten points to get meaningful comparisons.

Uni poll.

No, evil shall never prevail. :)

NJ Republicans are generally much better than Republicans elsewhere, and the Dems are some of the worst. I guess that happens, when one party has most of the power within the state.

Why you would think the Republicans as evil is beyond me.

It's New Jersey.  Republican running for statewide office = Charlie Brown kicking the football.  In the end, Lucy will take it away and Charlie Brown will fall down.

Corzine hasn't begun to spend his millions on campaign ads yet.

Does anyone know how much money Corzine has lost in the stock market?  I would be willing to guess its substantial

Final result:

Corzine 58%
Christie 41%

It probably won't be that bad. I'm guessing 54% to 44% (with 2% going to all of the third party nutcases that always run in NJ).

FDU is a terrible pollster.

Regardless, Corzine is in big trouble here. Big, big, big trouble.

Investment banker versus corruption fighter.  Trouble.  Big trouble.

You can all hide behind your preconcieved notions of New Jersey for so long until you realize that Corzine needs Christie to beat himself through bad campaigning and terrible fiscal ideas.  Christie really doesn't have a deep political record to latch on to and assail in the traditional way—most everything that people actually know about him is incredibly positive (unless you count the people who hate him simply because they "know" he's a Republican, a not-so-insignificant group).

I just really hope that Christie has half a clue at how to run the state.

New Jersey has had tax revolts before and will have one again. The Democrats have been in power long enough--total control since 2003, dominance since 2001--for people to consider kicking them out.

Mr. Moderate is right in many ways.  I'm always fighting in favor of Corzine because these polls always structurally underestimate his strength.  Christie is also underestimated by a lot of people here.  Corzine will not be able to spend as much tihs time around.

on the other hand, spending in an off-year is even more important than usual

Frankly, investment banker & related occupations against anyone (other than an estate agent, perhaps) presumably equals trouble right now.


Ah, so New Jersey might be serious this time. It's an off-year election also, so that presumably counts for something.

By the way, as far as your vote goes, if President Obama campaigns in New Jersey for Jon Corzine for governor, will it make you more or less likely to vote for Jon Corzine?

More: 25%
Less: 23%
No Impact: 48%

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/or/tab.html

I'm surprised it's not worse for Obama.

I think well see a narrow Christie victory.

When it comes down to polling in NJ, its basically just an attempt to screw around with Republicans.

Usually, and I'm assuming you mean at the state level and for presidential elections.

I think it would be good for NJ to see a switch. Maybe then their democratic party would get a reality check and start taking in better politicians.

It's certainly possible, although I still am not convinced. Perhaps I just fail to see what Corzine has done wrong (as opposed to what plenty of other people have).

I agree with this, Kean never lead by anything close to this.  For the record FDU nailed Menendez's margin of victory in 2006 and had the exact, EXACT margin of 18 points for Obama.

I would dare say that Christie winning would be good for both parties down the road.

Well, it'd be bad for the Democrats because it could be spun as very bad news for them, especially considering that they are currently at a disadvantage in the two other big races in 2009, New York City and Virginia (although VA may change, we'll see).

I assumed so too, but the facts don't back that up

They nailed, and I mean exactly nailed, 2006 and 2008

When were those polls taken?  The polls right before Election day traditionally aren't all that bad in NJ.  However, further out its a different story.  Granted its the same in almost all races, polls closer in are going to be more accurate than polls further out, but NJ takes it to a whole new extreme in that the NJ polls this far out are horrendous.  Also while Kean's margin may not have been quite this high it was pretty close and that was much closer to election day than this poll.

For reference, the March polls in Menendez/Kean showed the following:

D+4, R+2, D+5 or an average of D+2.3

Also known as an 11.3% swing from Kean's numbers to Christie's

Just for a little heads up, Rasmussen should be in the field this week(most likely Friday) and will have results by Sunday.

He will easily waltz through the primary without having to spend much if any money, which will leave him in good position against Corzine.

I believe he has Bergen or near sown it up too

No question, Democrats losing New Jersey is bad for Democrats at the decade level.  Though New Jersey has independent redistricting, the current State Legislature lines were drawn to favor Democrats, so perhaps this means the next set of lines will be more fair.  In any case, new lines mean a high number of retirements in 2013.

In any case, the main problem for New Jersey Republicans since 2001 has been the fact that they simply have no money and no major fundraiser to help level the field—the gap is surprisingly brutal.  With a GOP Governor, the party has a real shot to gain back ground they never should have lost in the first place.

I said down the road, not immediately.

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news.  That's probably good for Christie, he doesn't want to have to spend early.  He probably blew all his money on Mickey D's anyway

media markets

Will you be supporting Corzine?

me? not really, although it'd be amusing to see Corzine win from some of DWTL's earlier crazy comments, as I've said.

I see.

I can't stand him. LOL

News 12 New Jersey?

No surprise. The only county Christie might not get the line in is Bergen, but Lonegan isn't a serious threat.

Ah, my bad (no need for the bold, I remember New Jersey is in New Jersey).

It'd be interested to compare coverage to Virginia, LA, and NYC

The bold was for emphasis :)

I also have not heard much on NYC since the whole uproar over the term limit removal

I was vaguely involved in some L.A. city council and such races and the only race that matters, the Democratic primary, was last Tuesday.  I don't think it  really made the news, even though all of the competitive elections just happened and everyone who won is essentially [whatever]-elect.

Qunnipiac released a poll today on the budget, and I would have to imagine that they asked a question about the election, so hopefully that will get released tomorrow.