Talk Elections

PPP

Burr 43%
Marshall 38%

Burr 42%
Generic D 38%

Approve 35%
Disapprove 32%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_319.pdf

burr will win.

You're probably right....but why make such projections almost 2 years away from the election?

1.  i think '10 will be much more republican friendly than 08 or 06.
2.  burr is a mainstream conservative, not a nutter.
3.  nc, despite the 08 result, is still a lean republican state
4.  burr isnt a total f' up like elizabeth dole.

There is no curse. Just in case anyone brings it up.

the seat is cursed

isn't Burr's opponent gay?

He doesn't have any declared opponents yet.  You're probably thinking of Jim Neal, who lost the primary for Dole's seat last year.

The most obvious counter-argument is that Cooper, a statewide elected official > State. Senator Hagan

If Burr is really that unknown or no one has that strong of an opinion (I wonder), then his success or failure is probably linked in some way to the success or failure of Obama come Nov. 2010.

But in the end I think that Burr will win.

I doubt it.  To me it looks as if Cooper could easily win if he decides to run.

Meh, a lot of people could be in trouble.

     Realistically, Burr was seen as weaker than Dole before the 2008 elections. The strongest Democrats all waited out the election for a shot at Burr. We know what happened to Dole. It's too early to say, but things do not look good for Burr.

dole was a horrible candidate.  burr is much better.

That's what I call damning with faint praise.

     Maybe so, though as I recall Dole looked much stronger at the time. I guess I might be wrong though, as it has been some time.

I want to be a little bit off topic in saying that Kay Hagan's reelection campaign in 2014 will be a real wildcard.  So far she has shown herself to be liberal, who has voted with her party very very consistently so far.  North Carolina will probably move to the left by 2014, but she will let her constituents down if she votes hard left in the next 6 years.

Burr does have a stronger base than Dole did, but it wasn't like the conservatives voted for Hagan, they voted for Dole.  Dole got demolished among moderates (64-33), Burr's base is not going to help with that. Obviously a lot will depend on the candidate and the overall political climated a year and a half from now.  However, unless the economic situation is far worse than it is now and Obama is very unpopular, I think its going to be a real tough fight for Burr.  If things are starting to improve or Obama's approvals are even remotely near where they are now,  Burr will be in deep, unless the Dems nominate a terrible candidate which seems highly unlikely given the bench.

A lot of the Democrats that were elected in 2006 and 2008 will have a harder time getting reelected in '12 and '14.  I'm already really looking forward to Al Franken's reelection bid. ;)

Worse news for Burr... the Civitas (R) poll has Burr behind Cooper, 41%-38%.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/03/poll-gop-senator-burr-down-by-three-against-potential-dem-opponent.php

Haha, I love the attitutude of some Dems:

Christie up 15 in a race in 2009? Corzine will cruise to victory
Dems lead with 41% by 3 for a race in 2010?  O this sh**t is over

I wouldn't put a lot of weight in this Civitas poll. It may be bad news for Burr, but it's too far out to worry now. He may be in trouble, but it depends on the environment come the midterm elections. He certainly could be vulnerable, but he hasn't done anything that would give voters a reason to vote him out.

I don't think anyone is saying its over for Burr, but there has been talk about that he might be in trouble and we get a poll from a Republican polling firm putting him behind by three.  As far as NJ, well its NJ polling...

Which Dems have been saying that? That sounds like what most Republicans have been wrongly saying. :)

I think Corzine is in trouble, and the only saving grace for Corzine is that Cooper is a proven candidate while Christie could still implode.

CQ says Burr has very good constituent services and has been building support among African American institutions, much like Anne Northup did.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003088207&cpage=1

http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/coop_will_decide_by_spring

Burr will win in my opinion.  The so-called "Curse" is bull and we all know it.  The best challengers againest him have not yet entered the race and probably won't.  The fact is that we'll nominate a second tier candidate and Burr will get by in a mid-term walk.

How can you say Cooper probably won't enter the race?  He seems to be leaning more and more towards it

I think Burr will pull through, but we should certainly make this seat a target.  Nobody though Liddy Dole could lose, either.

Liddy Dole was already known as a lazy senator. Burr isn't, but Cooper is more popular than Hagan was by a long shot.

They even added Burr to their Hall of Shame. Hmm...

So not only do we have favorable polls, a public indication of interest, and a report that a decision would be forthcoming in the next two weeks - but we also have the DSCC putting a great deal of focus on Richard Burr and hyping the poll results of Attorney General Cooper, whose decision, again, will come in the next two weeks.  Given how shrewd the DSCC is about candidate recruiting and outreach, I don't think they would put this degree of focus on NC-Sen, hyping the Burr-Cooper polls in particular, unless they knew that a positive decision would be announced in the next two weeks. (http://www.senateguru.com/diary/659/ncsen-dscc-tipping-roy-coopers-hand)

How could not be lazy and still be unknown by a third of his constituents after six years?

There are a few explanations. You can be hard-working and not be a camera hog. Institutional leaders and communities may know you, but not disconnected people. Secondly, North Carolina is a huge state. Hard to meet everyone and appear in every media market. Third, there are a lot of people moving in, so they don't know their representatives. +1 million since 2000. Fourth, Liddy Dole was necessarily more glamorous than him. Fifth, when he was elected, it was pretty much as a faceless Bush clone in the first place, so he wasn't going to have left an impression.