Talk Elections

The Swing State Project is pleased to announce that we have finished calculating presidential results by congressional district for all 435 districts nationwide. You can find all the results here:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4161

Special thanks to Alcon of these boards for providing comprehensive results for the state of Washington.

Congratulations for your excellent work.

You and your site have become a valuable source for every self-respecting political junkie.

Excellent!

Was 2004 ever done as well? There are several states that never had results or maps published for 2004 by CD on this site, though 2000 was completely done along with a national map. Would be nice to get all that data along with national CD maps on here for both 2004 and 2008.

I compiled a map of this throughout, so here it is, finished.

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I might do 2004 now.

Do you know how Many CDs were won by Obama ?

242. 193 for McCain.

Oooooh!

I just came onto my keyboard [/exagerrate].

Just a small nitpick: Obama won Barrow's district in Georgia.

DavidNYC, congratulations on this accomplishment.

I know some states haven't divided the early votes and/or split precincts. In some states (mainly FL, GA, NC) some districts could be altered by several percent. Do you know when that will be complete?

First off, a huge thank you to everyone for all the kind compliments - coming from denizens of this board, this is high praise indeed.

Second, to answer the folks asking about data from earlier years, the link I posted in my first comment contains data for 2008, 2004, and 2000. While we only compiled 2008 ourselves, the older data is from a trusted source (Polidata by way of the Cook Political Report) and was used in the Almanac of American Politics. Please note that the 2000 data was indeed recalibrated for the post-2000 census redistricting, and the 2004 data for Georgia and Texas reflects the mid-decade redistricting those two states did.

To answer the question about early votes and split precincts, I don't think that those states (eg, Georgia) ever release proper data. We've made some educated guesses about what those splits are or ought to be, and we will probably have a more detailed post forthcoming about that. While it would be possible for results to shift somewhat, we think it's unlikely that there would be any major surprises.

Congratulations, David.  I know you and your team worked long and hard on this.  Looks like you were easily the first ones, after all.  Glad to have been a small part of it.  :)

So, democrats won 15 more districts in the House elections that Obama did... ???

This is surprising how?

There still are more areas solidly Republican at the presidential level but ready to vote for Democrats locally or even congressionally than the other way round.
And McCain clearly overperformed compared to Generic Republican in 2008. And not just in the anti-Obama Swing areas (though there by most. Presumably.)

House Democrats whose districts went for McCain:

McMahon, Massa (NY)
Dahlkemper, Altmire, Carney, Murtha, Holden (all in PA... most of these very close)
Wilson, Boccieri, Space (OH)
Ellsworth, Hill (IN 8 and 9 - both close)
Peterson (MN 7)
Skelton (MO 4)
Pomeroy, Herseth (Dakotas)
Kratovil (MD 1)
Perriello, Boucher (VA)
both WV Democrats
McIntyre, Shuler (NC, both close)
Spratt (SC 5)
Marshall (GA 8)
Boyd, Kozmas (FL - one blue dog, one scandal destroyed incumbent in a close district)
Chandler (KY 6)
Davis, Gordon, Tanner (TN)
Bright, Griffith (AL)
Childers, Taylor (MS)
all 3 AR Democrats
Melancon (LA 3)
Boren (OK 2)
Edwards (TX 17)
Minnick (ID 1)
Salazar, Markey (the two vast districts in CO, both close)
Teague (NM 2, close)
Kirkpatrick, Mitchell, Giffords (AZ... and given how similar areas in other states swung, possibly all three can be attributed to a Home State Effect for McCain)
Matheson (UT 2)

House Republicans whose district went for Obama

McHugh (NY 23)
LoBiondo, Lance (NJ)
Gerlach, Dent (PA)
Tiberi (OH 12)
Roskam, Kirk, Biggert, Manzullo (IL... just a tiny bit more of a swing and McCain would have been reduced to one district)
Camp, Upton, Rogers, McCotter (MI)
Ryan, Petri (WI)
Paulson (MN 3)
Latham (IA 4)
Terry (NE 2)
Castle (DE)
Forbes, Wolf (VA)
Young, Ros Lehtinen (FL)
Cao (LA 2)
Lungren, Gallegly, McKeon, Dreier, Calvert, Bono, Campbell, Bilbray (all in CA - a state where McCain probably did worse than Generic R. Almost all very close, mind)

If I understand correctly, the 2000 results are notional results for the 2002 redistricting, and the 2004 GA+TX results are notional results on the new post-2004 districts there?

Awesome. Perhaps you can inform Dave Leip and see if he would permit the 2004 data and maps to be added to this site?

As has been stated above there were a lot of areas where generic democrats did better than Obama( most of the non black south, Appalachia, East Ohio/West PA). Then there were places where Obama did better than a generic democrat like most of California, Illinois( obviously), and most of the upper midwest. That is actually pretty significant imo, but still in this election a democrats did better at the local level than at the presidential level. 

2008, fixed

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2004, on post-2004 GA and TX districts

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2008 comparison between House and Prez

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OH-15 should be Obama-Democrat, not Obama-Republican. Same with KY-03. There's also a district around Pittsburgh with weird shading that should be McCain-Republican. PA-15 should be Obama-Republican, not Obama-Democrat.

Also, what was the result in CO-04?

In addition to OH-15, fix NY-24 and KY-3.

Verily, to see all of the CD results, check here:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4161

49.54% McCain, 48.66% Obama


NY-24 has a Democratic representative.

But McCain didn't win the district.  Hence the light blue color.

Ah. I see what you mean. Sorry for the confusion.

F'xed map:

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A surprising number of McCain/Democratic CD's; not just from the South.

Actually most of them are in the south plus Ohio, West Virginia and Western Pa. Arizona is easily explained but Colorado is a bit more interesting. Then again the CO-4 was pretty damn close. The northern plains isn't that surprising either.

Don't forget that the Democrats hold now a big majority of CD.
That along with Republican gerrymandering can explain the seeming discrepancy.

Interesting map : more democrats in the south and west, more republicans in the northern midwest and northeast. However, southern congressional democrats should be more conservatives than their party and northern republicans more progressives.

Wait a second, why is Alaska light blue?

Damn. I forgot HI and AK.

These are awesome, thanks! Any chance we could get a map of how CD's swung from '04 to '08? :)

Royer: I'm not 100% sure on what you mean by "notional" in this context, but to confirm, the numbers on the chart for the 2000 election reflect the district boundaries that came into being after states created new maps after the 2000 census. This can be confirmed by the fact that brand new districts like NC-13 are shown with numbers. (If we were using pre-2002 district lines, NC-13 would be empty because it simply didn't exist.)

The same is also true for GA and TX, the two states which did mid-decade redistricting.

Nym: I emailed Dave a link to this data. He is more than welcome to use it on the site!

So are they the 2000 GA and TX results those for the current districts, or for the post-2002 districts? That was his question - your wording wasn't clear. Though the TX results make it obvious that it's the former, really. (By notional, he means that the districts didn't actually exist at the time of the election. The term is somewhat out of place here as these districts aren't used for presidential elections anyways.)

Yes re GA & TX - sorry for the confusion. The numbers reflect the current maps.

Bump.

We need Dave to put it on the Atlas !!!

Bump. So when is Dave going to add it to the Atlas database ?

Ok, so nobody cares...

Anyways, this maps shows States fro which 2008 CD maps are available (yellow States have only one seat).

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So, once we get NJ, MD, GA, FL, TN, TX, OH, IL, MO, OK, CO and OR maps, we'll also finally have the nationwide one.

Considering that the final 2004 national CD map was never finished on this site, I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for 2008.

Sure that, since I'm the only one who seems to care, I doubt Leip will have the impression the forum absolutely wants a complete CD map.

I'd like one, but I have 2004 and 2008 national maps in my files anyway.

Actually, precise data insterests me mor than the map (indeed yes, we already have yours on this thread and I can't stop watching them), since I'd like to know I which districts Obama did better than nation (or state) wide and in which he did worse, in order to precisely measure gerrymandering.

SSP should still have all the actual numbers up on their websites. If not, I could find them somewhere.

FYI, I am working on this some more - I've completed OR & TN, close in FL, IL,  NJ, and OH.  GA is tabulated, but is kind of ridiculous - over 1million votes not allocated.  Haven't started CO, TX, OK.
(Note I've tabulated these completely independent of SSP - I don't allocate the split votes).

Dave

Thanks a lot. :) I hope you'll manage to have this finished soon.

Agreed. For both 2008 and 2004. :)

Pretty ridiculous how "packed" Democrats are. Obama had 26 districts where he won at least 80% of the vote. McCain had 0.

"Gerrymandering doesn't favor republicans", eh Franzl ? ::)

No add in almost 2 years... :(

Some of these are some of the most "natural", reasonable districts in the US. Not all, of course.