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General Politics => U.S. General Discussion => Topic started by: Purple State on April 30, 2009, 09:44:58 pm



Title: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Purple State on April 30, 2009, 09:44:58 pm
Post your picks. Here's my list.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adalberto_Jordan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_V%C3%A1zquez

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_R._Moreno

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonia_Sotomayor

Obama likely will go Hispanic considering his lack-luster record with the community so far. I would be shocked if he doesn't put a woman on the bench, as Ginsburg will likely retire soon and you need at least one if not two women on the bench. But he may put a Cuban (Jordan) on there because of the recent openings with Cuba and Latin America.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: A18 on April 30, 2009, 09:50:53 pm
How about a jurist whose last name begins with the letter Z? We could really use one of those. Maybe two.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Frodo on April 30, 2009, 10:00:18 pm
Sonia Sotomayor probably will be our newest justice.  It would be consistent with President Obama's oft-stated desire to change the tone in Washington, D.C., and pick a nominee who has proven to have had bipartisan appeal and a centrist voting record.  I am certain that he would want to get this Supreme Court nomination out of the way quickly so he could focus on the rest of his agenda, which would seem to rule out anyone overly controversial (so no liberals). 


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on April 30, 2009, 10:05:18 pm
I would also imagine that Ginsburg's seat would be given to a hardcore liberal, making up for the loss of Souter, but not right away.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 30, 2009, 10:57:03 pm
I think it's weird that everyone's talking about only judges, when historically presidents have nominated Senators and Governors plenty. Earl Warren, our greatest Chief Justice, had no judicial experience, remember. I would argue that it's a good idea to give the court some balance with respect to historical background, so that the justices aren't completely removed from the actual effects of their decisions.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 30, 2009, 10:59:02 pm
Maybe Jennifer Granholm.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on April 30, 2009, 11:00:26 pm
Sonia Sotomayor will be the pick.  She grew up in the Bronx.  Obama can't resist that.

Obama = J-Lo?

pleasase discuss


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: ?????????? on April 30, 2009, 11:16:12 pm
Harriet Miers......*duck*

jk I'm saying William J. Clinton.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: TeePee4Prez on April 30, 2009, 11:26:58 pm
I hope Scalia's looking to retire soon.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: The Duke on April 30, 2009, 11:31:52 pm
Would nominating Deval Patrick give the Democrats in Massachusetts a better shot at holding the Governor's mansion in two years?  Is that something you think Obama might think about?

Here's the real wild card pick: Hillary Clinton.

Smart money says Sotomayor, though.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: The love that set me free on April 30, 2009, 11:33:49 pm
Would nominating Deval Patrick give the Democrats in Massachusetts a better shot at holding the Governor's mansion in two years?  Is that something you think Obama might think care about?

No.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: cinyc on April 30, 2009, 11:37:33 pm
Harriet Miers......*duck*

jk I'm saying William J. Clinton.

Only if Obama wants a real fight on his hands and wants to relive the past.  I doubt it.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on April 30, 2009, 11:57:32 pm
I think it's weird that everyone's talking about only judges, when historically presidents have nominated Senators and Governors plenty. Earl Warren, our greatest Chief Justice, had no judicial experience, remember. I would argue that it's a good idea to give the court some balance with respect to historical background, so that the justices aren't completely removed from the actual effects of their decisions.

As a question of reference, who is the last non-jurist appointed to and confirmed to the SC?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: The love that set me free on April 30, 2009, 11:58:53 pm
Rehnquist I think.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: The Duke on May 01, 2009, 12:01:42 am
Would nominating Deval Patrick give the Democrats in Massachusetts a better shot at holding the Governor's mansion in two years?  Is that something you think Obama might think care about?

No.

You're saying it wouldn't help hold the Governor's mansion of Obama doesn't care that it would help hold the Governor's mansion?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 01, 2009, 12:09:09 am
Well, Rehnquist was the last to have no judicial experience (though he was a SCOTUS clerk), but he was appointed from the justice department, so he had some Washington legal experience. Powell was the last to not have any sort of public legal experience, having worked in the private sector.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: The love that set me free on May 01, 2009, 12:13:05 am
Would nominating Deval Patrick give the Democrats in Massachusetts a better shot at holding the Governor's mansion in two years?  Is that something you think Obama might think care about?

No.

You're saying it wouldn't help hold the Governor's mansion of Obama doesn't care that it would help hold the Governor's mansion?

Why would Obama care about who the Governor of Massachusetts is?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 01, 2009, 12:46:35 am
Well, Rehnquist was the last to have no judicial experience (though he was a SCOTUS clerk), but he was appointed from the justice department, so he had some Washington legal experience. Powell was the last to not have any sort of public legal experience, having worked in the private sector.

I feel like, especially as these things have become increasingly contentious and more about appeasing the right groups and avoiding mistakes, it is unlikely it would go to someone without judicial experience. Also significant is that this is Obama's first SC nominee, meaning he needs to really get this one through and impress. Powell and Rehnquist were both later nominees by Nixon, following Berger and Blackmun, so that was less important.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 01, 2009, 01:25:58 am
Take it to the bank that the pick will be a woman.  The smart money is on Sonia Sotomayor.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 01, 2009, 02:50:50 am
Maybe Jennifer Granholm.

Would she be the hottest Justice ever or what?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Brittain33 on May 01, 2009, 08:29:23 am
Would nominating Deval Patrick give the Democrats in Massachusetts a better shot at holding the Governor's mansion in two years?  Is that something you think Obama might think about?

I know for damn sure that Obama isn't going to pick someone who can be pigeonholed for his strong advocacy of gay marriage in his state, seeing as how it will come before the Supreme Court in Patrick's lifetime.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 01, 2009, 11:28:36 am
Maybe Jennifer Granholm.

Would she be the hottest Justice ever or what?

Also the Canadianest. But what do you expect from a TERRORIST President?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 01, 2009, 12:07:09 pm
I could see Granholm being chosen, although for the first pick I think Obama is likely to play it slightly safe.  Granholm, Sonia Sotomayor, Diane Wood and Elena Kagan are likely to be looked at most closely.  There is also some lesser speculation about Kim Wardlaw and Leah Ward Sears.

If Obama is willing to appoint a staunch liberal, Kathleen Sullivan or Pam Karlan are strong possibilities.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: The love that set me free on May 01, 2009, 12:16:38 pm
I don't know his name, but I'm hoping it was that Oregon district judge who ruled that lapdances are free speech.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 01, 2009, 12:47:00 pm
I'll expect a list like this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonia_Sotomayor
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merrick_Garland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adalberto_Jordan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_V%C3%A1zquez
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leroy_Rountree_Hassell,_Sr.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leah_Ward_Sears
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elena_Kagan - The best pick, in my view
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teresa_Wynn_Roseborough
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Revesz
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deval_Patrick


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 01, 2009, 12:56:27 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_S._Karlan

She's incredibly bright and talented, but may be too liberal


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 01, 2009, 12:58:30 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_S._Karlan

She's incredibly bright and talented, but may be too liberal

I wouldn't expect that to be an issue.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: TheresNoMoney on May 01, 2009, 01:07:19 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pamela_S._Karlan

She's incredibly bright and talented, but may be too liberal

The court could use a real liberal. There are 4 hardcore right-wingers on there now that will be there for a long time.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: True Federalist on May 01, 2009, 04:03:15 pm
I think it's weird that everyone's talking about only judges, when historically presidents have nominated Senators and Governors plenty. Earl Warren, our greatest Chief Justice, had no judicial experience, remember. I would argue that it's a good idea to give the court some balance with respect to historical background, so that the justices aren't completely removed from the actual effects of their decisions.

Warren was hardly our greatest Chief Justice.  He was an overly activist justice who presided over an overly activist court.  Wasn't our worst Chief either.  I'd rate Warran as in the broad middle.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 01, 2009, 04:05:01 pm
Our two greatest Chiefs, Warren and Marshall, were career politicians.  Then again, Vincent, our worst, was as well.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 01, 2009, 06:29:20 pm
Oh, my...Jeffrey Toobin just suggested a name I didn't even think of - Midge Rendell (Ed's wife)

That would be interesting. I know Specter would definitely vote for her.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 01, 2009, 09:09:40 pm
Early Intrade numbers (volume very low):

Sonia Sotomayor 35.0
Jennifer Granholm 20.0
Elena Kagan 20.0
Cass Sunstein 15.0

Other speculation I read suggested that Sotomayor, Kagan, and Diane Wood are the most frequently mentioned possibilities.  Almost everyone thinks that Obama will pick a woman.

Also, this:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0509/Conservatives_target_Sotomayor_Kagan_Wood.html?showall



Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 02, 2009, 09:41:15 pm
Why is Granholm being mentioned so often?  Does she have any legal experience?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 02, 2009, 10:52:48 pm
Kathleen Sullivan would be interesting since she a lezzie


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Rowan on May 02, 2009, 10:57:38 pm
Granholm was on Cavuto the other day, she didn't sound interested at all.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 02, 2009, 11:30:31 pm
Early Intrade numbers (volume very low):

Sonia Sotomayor 35.0


First to call this one. Not bad I think.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 02, 2009, 11:32:28 pm
Early Intrade numbers (volume very low):

Sonia Sotomayor 35.0

She seems to be the most logical choice.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 02, 2009, 11:37:26 pm
... supposing all one cares about is being Hispanic and female


Obama may decide he wants a brilliant legal thinker who can hold ideological sway over [future?] conservative and moderate members of the court.  That's the temptation of selecting someone like Diana Wood or Pam Karlan.  Also, Sotomayor has health problems.


It will be a women though.  Everyone thinks that the Supreme Court should have at least two women on it, and it's possibly no one but Ginsburg will retire in the next few years... replacing one woman with another.  Also, women justices are less likely to reverse their stance on Roe.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: The Duke on May 03, 2009, 12:04:13 am
From my prediction for the Obama Presidency thread.

Sonia Sotomayor... will be nominated to the Supreme Court to replace... David Souter

Win?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 12:08:48 am
Not bad sir.  You predicted that Koh was going to be a contender too... although his latest partisan troubles certainly mean that won't happen.  Artur Davis isn't too different than Holder in demographic profile and Artur obviously has other ambitions (probably would have been a better pick too), although Larry Summers was never going to be Secretary of Treasury due to his statements on women...  although I have a feeling he's more influential in the department than Geithner.

No one expected Souter to be the first to retire except Souter's friends, cool.


Although you predicted Lieberman would caucus with the GOP :)


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 12:13:12 am
Like I said though, while Sonia Sotomayor checks all the boxes, Obama is a Constitutional student himself and may prefer to hire a persuasive advocate of judicial philosophy he believes in, rather than simply voting as he'd prefer.  Sotomayor may be the next one nominated, but if Obama can profoundly impact the aggregate judicial philosophy of the court, isn't that more important than temporarily placating Hispanic groups three years before he runs for reelection?


Obama is searching for the next this guy, if possible.  Ironic because Souter replaced him:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._Brennan,_Jr.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 03, 2009, 12:17:59 am
Like I said though, while Sonia Sotomayor checks all the boxes, Obama is a Constitutional student himself and may prefer to hire a persuasive advocate of judicial philosophy he believes in, rather than simply voting as he'd prefer.  Sotomayor may be the next one nominated, but if Obama can profoundly impact the aggregate judicial philosophy of the court, isn't that more important than temporarily placating Hispanic groups three years before he runs for reelection?


Obama is searching for the next this guy, if possible.  Ironic because Souter replaced him:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._Brennan,_Jr.


That will come later. I think Obama will pick what needs to be done for Souter and then what should be done for Ginsburg. I doubt he will only have those two to replace anyway, so he will have plenty of opportunities to shape the future of the court. For now he needs to play politics.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 12:24:17 am
Why is it better to appease racial minority groups now, rather than closer to the election when he needs their vote?  Their legislative influence isn't needed to pass the Obama agenda, why not closer when the voters will actually matter?  Besides, even the interest groups are probably going to be offended by something he does between now and the election and forget about the appointment anyway.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: The Duke on May 03, 2009, 12:32:57 am
You predicted that Koh was going to be a contender too... although his latest partisan troubles certainly mean that won't happen.

Koh won't go to the Supreme Court, but he did end up with a high profile legal position. 

No one expected Souter to be the first to retire except Souter's friends, cool.

My friend Jim Rogan (The former Congressman who ran the impeachment trial of Bill Clinton) actually did predict to me that Souter would be the first to go.  I'm pretty impressed with that in retrospect.

And David Souter doesn't have friends, silly.

Although you predicted Lieberman would caucus with the GOP :)

You win some you lose some, I guess.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 03, 2009, 12:34:02 am
Why is it better to appease racial minority groups now, rather than closer to the election when he needs their vote?  Their legislative influence isn't needed to pass the Obama agenda, why not closer when the voters will actually matter?  Besides, even the interest groups are probably going to be offended by something he does between now and the election and forget about the appointment anyway.

Yes he will screw up with these groups at some point along the way, but when it comes to election time he can say "Well look what I gave you on the SC as one of my earliest agendas." That way it isn't an after-the-fact apology for screwing up, but a preemptive show of solidarity.

Sure, it is usually better to follow the "What have you done for me lately?" doctrine, but in this situation this is the gift that can keep on giving and shows a proactive agenda. It also is usually harder for a president to get their first SC nominee through, while the ones that follow usually face less (although still considerable) resistance. I would imagine we see Ginsburg (and hopefully one of the conservative justices) retire in 2011 when Obama is (likely) to have a more solid Senate and that is when he will see some of the more mover-and-shaker type of justices on Obama's wish list.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 12:43:17 am
it is usually better to follow the "What have you done for me lately?" doctrine,

Agreed, especially with minority groups, and this shouldn't be underestimated.  It's not like the Hispanic caucus in Congress is an unreliable vote, and voters, as a whole, don't have much of a memory.  They'll feel more positive towards Obama on election day by appointing a Hispanic later in his term than right now.  Hispanic groups are intentionally keeping a low public profile this time around, although they are pushing hard privately.


but in this situation this is the gift that can keep on giving and shows a proactive agenda.

Only if Obama consistently elevates Hispanics to top posts throughout his term does this show a proactive agenda.  If it's just going to be one, it's best it's done later.  No one is voting for him until 2012, showing something like that is 90% irrelevant now.

It also is usually harder for a president to get their first SC nominee through, while the ones that follow usually face less (although still considerable) resistance.

All the more reason to get one of the white, liberal, female, haha possibly gay [if Sullivan], justices through now who can be a persuasive voice on the court. A Hispanic isn't an especially controversial person to nominate, even if especially because it'd be an uncontroversial "first."  Just getting someone that checks all of the boxes but doesn't offer any additional ideological threat to conservatives would be easier to get in later.  That's what Sonia does.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 03, 2009, 01:17:32 am
The first two of those are debatable, and are something to be worked out behind the scenes with the CHC. It is tough to say whether a later pick will seem like anything more than shameless pandering, while an early pick may not be remembered. But bear in mind Obama may not get another one of these before the 2012 elections. It may be likely, but Ginsburg has shown herself to be resilient and committed to remaining on the bench for as long and as often as possible.

On the final point, I would be interested to see the decisions passed down by these justices before I start throwing around the "L" word. It is possible that Sotomayor has a pretty liberal record. I am not knowledgeable enough (yet, but I will start looking through decisions when finals are over) on their records. However, for Obama to spend such a tremendous amount of political capital on this is silly. It has the potential to blow up in his face on too many fronts, from losing the nominee to losing major planks in his agenda. He is better off placating everyone, having an easy nominating round early, get in a pretty good justice, and move on with his platform. Once that is in place he can go full steam ahead with the more ideologically compatible justices, but sacrificing everything for a slightly more liberal justice is not in the best interest of his administration or the country at the moment.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 01:43:51 am
The first two of those are debatable,

CONSIDER YOURSELF DEBATED

[no charge]

But bear in mind Obama may not get another one of these before the 2012 elections.

Unlikely though.  Possible.  And he's relatively likely to be reelected too, judging from historical standards.



Again, I stress that overall influence on the court is more important than simply deciding on the liberal side of issues.  If you select someone like Brennan, your influence is infinite.  I severely contest you contention that Obama is better off "placating everyone," only the women's interest groups hold considerable sway with Obama's legislative goals in his first term.  Getting in a 15% more liberal justice is not his priority, I agree, but Obama is someone with particular interest in Constitutional law and he may not settle that easily.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 03, 2009, 05:27:35 am
Why is Granholm being mentioned so often?  Does she have any legal experience?

Obama has said that he would like to appoint a Supreme Court Justice with real world political experience.  Given that the conventional wisdom points to a woman nominee, Granholm, who served as Michigan Attorney General, a U.S. Attorney and earned her law degree from Harvard, fits the bill.  She has no experience as a judge, but I think the idea would be to diversify the court by adding someone who didn't come from the judicial monastery.  All of the current Justices were serving on the Federal Court of Appeals when selected.

She and Pam Karlan might be good out-of-the box choices but I think Obama is more likely to play it safe with the first pick and go with either Sotomayor or Wood, or perhaps Kagan if the other two fall through in the vetting process.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 03, 2009, 10:15:28 am
I wasn't aware that Granholm had been AG of Michigan and went to Harvard Law.  With that in mind, she seems like a very strong pick.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: © tweed on May 03, 2009, 10:40:29 am
would Granholm be the first justice born outside of the USA?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 03, 2009, 10:42:18 am
would Granholm be the first justice born outside of the USA?

No.
From the top of my head, Felix Frankfurter was born in Austria.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 03, 2009, 10:48:30 am
would Granholm be the first justice born outside of the USA?

No.
From the top of my head, Felix Frankfurter was born in Austria.

James Wilson was born in Scotland.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 03, 2009, 11:01:10 am
Again, I stress that overall influence on the court is more important than simply deciding on the liberal side of issues.  If you select someone like Brennan, your influence is infinite.  I severely contest you contention that Obama is better off "placating everyone," only the women's interest groups hold considerable sway with Obama's legislative goals in his first term.  Getting in a 15% more liberal justice is not his priority, I agree, but Obama is someone with particular interest in Constitutional law and he may not settle that easily.

I would agree. I am all for an influential liberal voice on the court, and I'm sure Obama will hate backing down on his gut choices, but there is no conceivable reason why he would give up the political capital necessary to do that so early into his first term. The honeymoon is going to end soon enough and the Republicans already don't seem all that inclined to drink the Kool-Aid. This is going to be a protracted fight and I would rather avoid a shutdown of Congress over this.

Just this could turn popular opinion against Obama. The country really doesn't hold much interest in SC nominees and would rather a quick, easy process. If we have to start hearing about how a justice was okay with partial-birth abortions or some stupid crap like that Obama will lose a lot of face and a lot of time. Best he play it safe for this first one and shape the court later down the road.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 03, 2009, 11:34:04 am
would Granholm be the first justice born outside of the USA?

No.
From the top of my head, Felix Frankfurter was born in Austria.

Yeah, but the birth certificate enthusiasts and their ilk won't like. They won't like it at all.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 11:45:01 am
Again, I stress that overall influence on the court is more important than simply deciding on the liberal side of issues.  If you select someone like Brennan, your influence is infinite.  I severely contest you contention that Obama is better off "placating everyone," only the women's interest groups hold considerable sway with Obama's legislative goals in his first term.  Getting in a 15% more liberal justice is not his priority, I agree, but Obama is someone with particular interest in Constitutional law and he may not settle that easily.

I would agree. I am all for an influential liberal voice on the court, and I'm sure Obama will hate backing down on his gut choices, but there is no conceivable reason why he would give up the political capital necessary to do that so early into his first term.


It's a partisan issue, not really a moderate hero one.  As long as Franken gets seated and normal Congressional committee policies are followed, very little political capital will need to be spent.  Everyone who's following this and knows Congressional politics knows Obama can choose anyone he wants and that this is something Obama almost certainly feels worth spending political capital on while Congress privately hashes out a health care plan.  Obama has a personal fascination with the Supreme Court, it's not a side show to him!!!

Marc Ambinder, for example, said [paraphrased] "SPOILER ALERT: Whoever Obama picks is guaranteed to be nominated" and Ben Smith said [paraphrased] "I don't see how anyone Obama picks to the right of Noam Chomsky doesn't get nominated"




Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 11:55:24 am
You know, if a Hispanic Catholic is appointed, it'd ironically decrease the court's diversity in another way since 2/3rds of the court would then be Catholic... ironic but not really relevant


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Brittain33 on May 03, 2009, 12:06:55 pm
You know, if a Hispanic Catholic is appointed, it'd ironically decrease the court's diversity in another way since 2/3rds of the court would then be Catholic... ironic but not really relevant


If Stevens follows in retirement and is replaced by Elana Kagan or another Jew or Catholic, there will be no Protestants on the Court.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 12:12:04 pm
You know, if a Hispanic Catholic is appointed, it'd ironically decrease the court's diversity in another way since 2/3rds of the court would then be Catholic... ironic but not really relevant


If Stevens follows in retirement and is replaced by Elana Kagan or another Jew or Catholic, there will be no Protestants on the Court.

The current Catholics though Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito, and Kennedy, ironically vote pretty much how I imagine evangelicals would, on a balance, prefer


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 12:17:08 pm
You know, if a Hispanic Catholic is appointed, it'd ironically decrease the court's diversity in another way since 2/3rds of the court would then be Catholic... ironic but not really relevant


If Stevens follows in retirement and is replaced by Elana Kagan or another Jew or Catholic, there will be no Protestants on the Court.

The current Catholics though Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito, and Kennedy, ironically vote pretty much how I imagine evangelicals would, on a balance, prefer

This is ironic because there's 18 Democratic senators ad 8 Republican ones, yet Republicans rely 100% on Catholic Supreme Court officials to hold sway in decisions.  Sotomayor, would naturally reduce that 100% number somewhat as I doubt she'll be on too many sides with Thomas when the chips are down, but it's interesting.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on May 03, 2009, 12:31:47 pm
Why is Granholm being mentioned so often?  Does she have any legal experience?

She was Michigan Attorney General, and was an assistant U.S. Attorney, but that's really about it when it comes to her legal experience.

I don't see her getting nominated, and even if she did, I think she'd have trouble making it through the confirmation since she's pretty lacking in experience.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 03, 2009, 05:29:10 pm
It's a partisan issue, not really a moderate hero one.  As long as Franken gets seated and normal Congressional committee policies are followed, very little political capital will need to be spent.  Everyone who's following this and knows Congressional politics knows Obama can choose anyone he wants and that this is something Obama almost certainly feels worth spending political capital on while Congress privately hashes out a health care plan.  Obama has a personal fascination with the Supreme Court, it's not a side show to him!!!

I have a hard time seeing Democrats moving lock-step on this one, but it would be nice. I understand that Obama does not view this as a side show, but he has people like Rahm who are purely political and aware of political consequences. I would love to see how those internal negotiations are shaping the decision. I do think Rahm and the political guys will mostly win out on this one. Sotomayor seems to fit the blend of judicial enough for Obama and political enough for the pollsters. Don't get me wrong, I am a huge constitution enthusiast and would love to see a real mover and shaker on the court, but I don't think this is the time.

That said, things will rely heavily on the climate of the next few months and how quickly Obama plans on announcing his pick. There is no rush (needs to be done by October), so Obama could float some names, get the winds of rage done with, and then make his pick once they pass. He may also have the major parts of his agenda passed by October. If he spends all of his political capital by October he can pick whomever he wants for the Court. Plus all the digging by the vetters will turn up some information that would be hard enough for any of us to find.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Bacon King on May 03, 2009, 05:31:39 pm
Obama could always appoint himself, lol


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 03, 2009, 05:32:08 pm
The odds of Obama appointing another Brennan, in terms of ideology or influence, are slim to none.  Ideologically, I don't think there is really anyone around today who shares Brennan's views.  Perhaps one of his former clerks, but the only name that comes to mind is Merrick Garland, and at 57 he might be too old.

In terms of influence, as well, we won't have another Brennan.  For 3 decades Brennan was the single most important Justice on the Court; nobody Obama appoints will be able to sway votes the way Brennan could.  Anthony Kennedy is still the most important Justice, no matter who Obama appoints.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on May 03, 2009, 05:33:59 pm
Obama could always appoint himself, lol

Could he do that if he wanted, and then just resign as President?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 05:58:10 pm
The odds of Obama appointing another Brennan, in terms of ideology or influence, are slim to none.  Ideologically, I don't think there is really anyone around today who shares Brennan's views.  Perhaps one of his former clerks, but the only name that comes to mind is Merrick Garland, and at 57 he might be too old.

In terms of influence, as well, we won't have another Brennan.  For 3 decades Brennan was the single most important Justice on the Court; nobody Obama appoints will be able to sway votes the way Brennan could.  Anthony Kennedy is still the most important Justice, no matter who Obama appoints.

No matter how persuasive Obama's justice is at convincing Kennedy, rly?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 03, 2009, 06:02:51 pm
No matter how persuasive Obama's justice is at convincing Kennedy, rly?

I had not considered that, good point.  I still think, though, that nobody Obama appoints can have the type of influence Brennan did.  See Harry Blackmun for an example of what I mean.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 06:11:05 pm
I'll not, but why shouldn't Obama try to select someone intellectually and legally persuasive?  The reason Brennan was influential was because he could convince people such as Kennedy [and more conservative justices].  Obama won't probably get up to that level, but I don't see any reason not to shoot for the moon and select the most brilliant, persuasive, [female], justice possible.  Going for the token Hispanic is best done closer to election day, no?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 03, 2009, 06:16:52 pm
I'll not, but why shouldn't Obama try to select someone intellectually and legally persuasive?  The reason Brennan was influential was because he could convince people such as Kennedy [and more conservative justices].  Obama won't probably get up to that level, but I don't see any reason not to shoot for the moon and select the most brilliant, persuasive, [female], justice possible.  Going for the token Hispanic is best done closer to election day, no?


Closer to election still looks like pandering. He can point to this around election time and say, "Look at all the wonderful things my Hispanic pick has done." Obviously all of this depends on how conditions are in October. If Obama has incredible Senate dominance and has passed much of his agenda by then, he could potentially have his way. However, if he is mired in conflict and a number of battles with the Senate, he is better off rallying groups around him and gaining more political capital than he spends with his pick.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 03, 2009, 06:17:32 pm
I agree with everything you wrote.  I'm merely saying that, no matter how hard he tries, Obama won't be able to find another Brennan.  He should pick the person most likely to sway Kennedy; I think he should ignore what interest groups are saying.  He'll get another appointment before 2012, he can appoint a Hispanic then.  I personally am not enamored by Sotomayor, and think he should look elsewhere.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: paul718 on May 03, 2009, 09:03:06 pm
I can't believe Granholm is being considered.  It would be like a Republican nominating Rudy Giuliani. 


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 03, 2009, 10:49:47 pm
I think that if Obama is going to make "symbolic" pick, it's probably best to do it with the first pick.  That way it is likely to ultimately have the biggest impact in the public consciousness, which is what you want with a symbolic pick.  It's why Reagan selected Sandra Day O'Connor first instead of second or third.

Obama will get a second pick because John Paul Stevens is virtually certain to retire sometime during his first term.  Perhaps for the second pick he can focus more on getting an intellectual heavyweight.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 03, 2009, 11:09:33 pm
Updated Intrade numbers (again, low volume):

Sotomayor 40.0
Kagan 20.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Granholm 12.0
Sears 12.0
Wood 10.0

(All of the above are women btw.)



Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: paul718 on May 03, 2009, 11:37:50 pm
Updated Intrade numbers (again, low volume):

Sotomayor 40.0
Kagan 20.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Granholm 12.0
Sears 12.0
Wood 10.0

(All of the above are women btw.)



I'd put my money on Wood (pause) because of the University of Chicago connection.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 03, 2009, 11:43:59 pm
Updated Intrade numbers (again, low volume):

Sotomayor 40.0
Kagan 20.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Granholm 12.0
Sears 12.0
Wood 10.0

(All of the above are women btw.)



I'd put my money on Wood (pause) because of the University of Chicago connection.

And Wood, I hear, has a sharp legal mind


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 03, 2009, 11:45:39 pm
Updated Intrade numbers (again, low volume):

Sotomayor 40.0
Kagan 20.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Granholm 12.0
Sears 12.0
Wood 10.0

(All of the above are women btw.)



I'd put my money on Wood (pause) because of the University of Chicago connection.

Biggest strike against Wood is that she's old....58.  OK, not *that* much older than the others......but still, if Obama is trying for a long lasting impact on the court, he might be tempted to go with someone a few years younger.



Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 06, 2009, 06:21:38 pm
Kagan passes Sotomayor on Intrade:

Kagan 30.0
Sotomayor 25.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Wood 11.0
Granholm 9.9



Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: DownWithTheLeft on May 06, 2009, 07:05:39 pm
For some reason I've always liked John Yoo


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on May 06, 2009, 07:37:35 pm
I'm still liking Sotomayor's chances, Jeffrey Rosen article or no. The considerations here aren't only political; in his legal academy days, Obama wasn't seen as a huge fan of advancing liberal causes through the courts.

Also, if Obama has a liberal Scalia up his sleeve, it might make sense to save it for the Ginsburg slot, when the base will be most concerned about not replacing RBG with a centrist, and the Reps won't be able to complain that the court is taking a big leftward shift.

(All subject to the provisos that (a) none of us really has a clue, and (b) that as Sam Spade said earlier, applying these political labels to judges oversimplifies things considerably.)


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 07, 2009, 12:13:42 am
Kagan passes Sotomayor on Intrade:

Kagan 30.0
Sotomayor 25.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Wood 11.0
Granholm 9.9



Unless Obama and Rahm have all the buys in Intrade, how much of a predictor is this really?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 07, 2009, 12:40:40 am
Kagan passes Sotomayor on Intrade:

Kagan 30.0
Sotomayor 25.0
Wardlaw 20.0
Wood 11.0
Granholm 9.9



Unless Obama and Rahm have all the buys in Intrade, how much of a predictor is this really?

People are predicting based on what they know of Obama's psychology and the political imperatives he's faced with, as well as their knowledge of the candidates.  It's probably only worth very little....but no less than the betting on the veepstakes last year....or on any appointment for anything.



Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 07, 2009, 12:44:05 am
since those betting loved people like Hillary when she wasn't even vetted by the Obama campaign, they might be just an aggregate representation of sensationalism ;)


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: The Duke on May 07, 2009, 01:10:02 am
I'm starting to think its Kagan and not Sotomayor.  Kagan is younger and more liberal.  This is Obama's best chance he'll ever get to put a real liberal lion on the bench.  The rationale for Sotomayor was always that she was confirmable (Latino, woman, and wasnominated for the District Court by Bush I).  Why would Obama care about confirmable at this point?  There's no danger, absent a scandal, of the nominee losing.  Why not just put up the youngest most liberal person of stature you can find?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 07, 2009, 01:10:58 am
I'm starting to think its Kagan and not Sotomayor.  Kagan is younger and more liberal.

Her #1 strategic qualification is that the Senate has already approved her


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 07, 2009, 07:03:23 am
Wouldn't it be kind of odd to give the job to someone he just gave a different job to a couple months ago?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 07, 2009, 03:04:11 pm
Wouldn't it be kind of odd to give the job to someone he just gave a different job to a couple months ago?

Not really.  Frank Murphy and Robert Jackson both served very little time as Attorney General before FDR appointed them, in 1940 and 1941.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 07, 2009, 07:03:51 pm
I'm starting to think its Kagan and not Sotomayor.  Kagan is younger and more liberal.  This is Obama's best chance he'll ever get to put a real liberal lion on the bench.  The rationale for Sotomayor was always that she was confirmable (Latino, woman, and wasnominated for the District Court by Bush I).  Why would Obama care about confirmable at this point?  There's no danger, absent a scandal, of the nominee losing.  Why not just put up the youngest most liberal person of stature you can find?

I agree with your reasoning, although I think the CW is that, in all likelihood, either Stevens or Ginsburg will retire next year.....with the other one then retiring maybe a year or two later.  So Obama is almost certainly going to get another Supreme Court appointment soon-ish.  Thus, he could give Kagan another year or two of experience and appoint her then, while appointing Sotomayor or someone else this time.  I guess it depends on who else would be in the mix for a second Supreme Court slot.



Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 09, 2009, 02:34:16 am
Sotomayor retakes the lead on Intrade:

Sotomayor 35.0
Kagan 25.0
Wardlaw 24.0
Wood 15.0
Sears 11.2
Granholm 8.0



Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 09, 2009, 03:06:43 am
Sotomayor retakes the lead on Intrade:

Sotomayor 35.0
Kagan 25.0
Wardlaw 24.0
Wood 15.0
Sears 11.2
Granholm 8.0



Apparently the trashing of Rosen and his hit-piece worked well.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 09, 2009, 09:13:29 pm
Sotomayor retakes the lead on Intrade:

Sotomayor 35.0
Kagan 25.0
Wardlaw 24.0
Wood 15.0
Sears 11.2
Granholm 8.0



Apparently the trashing of Rosen and his hit-piece worked well.

Interesting, especially because she happens to have the most incriminating of clips readily available for branding as an "activist" judge.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 11, 2009, 11:28:29 am
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/05/11/1928014.aspx (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/05/11/1928014.aspx)

The SCOTUS shortlist?

According to a couple of sources in the know, there appears to be a working short list of about six names for President Obama’s Supreme Court pick. The co-frontrunners (in no particular order): Diane Wood of the 7th Circuit, Solicitor General Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor of the 2nd Circuit, Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Merrick Garland of the DC Circuit Court of Appeals. Obviously, folks can slice this list all they want: Five are women; one’s Hispanic; one’s male; and all are in their late 40s or early 50s, except two (Wood, 58, and Garland, 56).

Keep an eye on Napolitano. For this pick, it would be surprising if Obama named someone he didn't either know well or trust personally. Wood, Kagan, and Napolitano all fit this bill (Wood taught at the University of Chicago with Obama, and Kagan and Napolitano already have top slots in the administration). As for Napolitano, remember that she endorsed Obama early on (despite Emily’s List pressure to do otherwise). And from people familiar with the president's thinking, he's been as impressed with Napolitano as anyone in his cabinet. They click. That matters....


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 11, 2009, 11:36:46 am
I saw that, I don't buy it.  The White House is keeping the cards close to its chess at the moment.

If anything, these things *could* be leaked from a low level official to let the conservative oppo be focused on them [not that some of these aren't also on the official list too].

Napolitano's advantage is that she also has already been cleared by the Senate.  I don't know if Obama wouldn't rather have someone with a distinguished Constitutional opinion, hmm.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 11, 2009, 11:41:20 am
What I find curious is that while everyone is talking about Sotomayor, nobody seems to mention the other Hispanic woman in the mix, Kim Wardlaw.

Is she considered less qualified, more divisive or what?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 11, 2009, 11:51:41 am
Why would Napolitano be on the list. The Senate would have a fiesta with ripping her apart, most notably for that report the Republicans managed to misconstrue as calling veterans possible terrorists.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 11, 2009, 12:16:05 pm
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/05/11/1928014.aspx (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/05/11/1928014.aspx)

The SCOTUS shortlist?

According to a couple of sources in the know, there appears to be a working short list of about six names for President Obama’s Supreme Court pick. The co-frontrunners (in no particular order): Diane Wood of the 7th Circuit, Solicitor General Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor of the 2nd Circuit, Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Merrick Garland of the DC Circuit Court of Appeals. Obviously, folks can slice this list all they want: Five are women; one’s Hispanic; one’s male; and all are in their late 40s or early 50s, except two (Wood, 58, and Garland, 56).

Keep an eye on Napolitano. For this pick, it would be surprising if Obama named someone he didn't either know well or trust personally. Wood, Kagan, and Napolitano all fit this bill (Wood taught at the University of Chicago with Obama, and Kagan and Napolitano already have top slots in the administration). As for Napolitano, remember that she endorsed Obama early on (despite Emily’s List pressure to do otherwise). And from people familiar with the president's thinking, he's been as impressed with Napolitano as anyone in his cabinet. They click. That matters....



http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/05/scotus_handicapping_a_short_list.php




Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 11, 2009, 12:39:22 pm
Merrick Garland would be excellent.  He's a former Brennan clerk, so he probably learned quite a bit from his boss.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 11, 2009, 12:47:26 pm
Why would Napolitano be on the list. The Senate would have a fiesta with ripping her apart, most notably for that report the Republicans managed to misconstrue as calling veterans possible terrorists.

Even more, the fact that she gets along well with Obama is a big reason NOT to appoint her at the Supreme Court.
Why take away from the cabinet such a competent person, which also happens to be a good friend of you? 


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 11, 2009, 12:48:48 pm
Merrick Garland would be excellent.  He's a former Brennan clerk, so he probably learned quite a bit from his boss.

No need to spend too much time thinking on the token white male.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 11, 2009, 12:52:44 pm
Merrick Garland would be excellent.  He's a former Brennan clerk, so he probably learned quite a bit from his boss.

No need to spend too much time thinking on the token white male.

Shame, he and Kagan are my two favorites.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 11, 2009, 02:32:12 pm
I don't buy MSNBC's spin about Napolitano either.

What I find curious is that while everyone is talking about Sotomayor, nobody seems to mention the other Hispanic woman in the mix, Kim Wardlaw.

Is she considered less qualified, more divisive or what?


Kim Wardlaw received her undergraduate and law degrees from UCLA.  Sotomayor attended Princeton and Yale Law School.  UCLA is a top-tier law school, but its not as overtly elite as Sotomayor's credentials.

Her last name, Wardlaw, means that the general public may not realize that she is Hispanic.  I wonder if that is a factor.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Brittain33 on May 11, 2009, 03:20:05 pm
Her last name, Wardlaw, means that the general public may not realize that she is Hispanic.  I wonder if that is a factor.

If it never was for Richardson...


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 11, 2009, 04:26:44 pm
Wardlaw might not look Hispanic enough to count:

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Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 11, 2009, 08:27:05 pm
I would love to see Napolitano get the job.  Someone on some message board suggested that he appoint Michelle!  That would be awesome!


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 11, 2009, 08:35:44 pm
Someone on some message board suggested that he appoint Michelle!  That would be awesome!

Because it worked so well for Bill Clinton ::)

It might also be illegal.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 11, 2009, 09:46:02 pm
Someone on some message board suggested that he appoint Michelle!  That would be awesome!

Because it worked so well for Bill Clinton ::)

It might also be illegal.

And you should get a sense of humor...


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Brittain33 on May 12, 2009, 08:29:44 am
She is an ugly baboon mouth

How bad does the racism have to get before we get to worry about what it says about the forum as a whole? Moderators? Some people push the envelope just for the sake of getting attention, and it doesn't serve any positive purpose while making the rest of us look bad.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: BM on May 12, 2009, 03:07:27 pm
Quote
Possible SCOTUS pick failed bar four years ago
@ 11:19 am by Eric Zimmermann

If Stanford Law professor Kathleen Sullivan is nominated to the Supreme Court, she'll likely have to answer at least one embarrassing question during her confirmation hearing: How did she fail the California bar exam?

Sullivan, who's rumored to be on Obama's SCOTUS short list, failed the test just four years ago while serving as a professor at Stanford Law School.

At the time, Sullivan, a former dean of Stanford Law, was already licensed to practice in Massachusetts and New York. She took the test after joining an appellate firm in California. After failing the July 2005 test, she passed in February 2006 after taking her preparation more seriously.

"I am eating, drinking and sleeping the bar," Sullivan told the LA Times before her second test.

Sullivan is considered a brilliant legal scholar and authored of one of the nation's most widely used case law textbooks. But failing the test did have consequences: in January 2006, she was removed from a $500 million lawsuit for not having passed the bar.

In Sullivan's defense, the California exam is known as one of the most difficult in the nation. More than half of those who sit for it fail.
http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2009/05/12/possible-scotus-pick-failed-bar-four-years-ago/

I don't think she'll get picked so it probably doesn't matter, but how does a law professor fail a bar exam?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 12, 2009, 03:22:51 pm
Two more names (serious suggestions):

Lisa Madigan
http://www.illinoisattorneygeneral.gov/

Anne Milgram
http://www.nj.gov/oag/oag/ag_bio.htm




Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 12, 2009, 03:23:47 pm
Picking Lisa Madigan would make it seem as if he is clearing the primary for his basketball buddy


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 12, 2009, 03:26:04 pm
Picking Lisa Madigan would make it seem as if he is clearing the primary for his basketball buddy

So?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 12, 2009, 03:28:13 pm
This looks very bad.  Obama does not want to look bad.  Therefore, she would be a poor choice.

I like to post comments on things.  This is my comment.  Therefore, I posted my comment that it would seem like Obama was choosing her for reasons other than picking the most qualified candidate.  Then you read the comment.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 12, 2009, 03:29:23 pm
This looks very bad.  Obama does not want to look bad.  Therefore, she would be a poor choice.

He probably won't pick her for that exact reason, but she would be a great pick IMO.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Brittain33 on May 12, 2009, 03:46:41 pm
Anne Milgram
http://www.nj.gov/oag/oag/ag_bio.htm

She went to my high school! Her father was the rabbi at the Reform temple. Anyway, she isn't even 40 yet and has been AG for only two years. She may be brilliant, but I think SCOTUS is a bit far for someone so young.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 12, 2009, 04:31:44 pm
I think SCOTUS is a bit far for someone so young.

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Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 12, 2009, 10:23:37 pm
Wood now in third place on Intrade:

Sotomayor 28.5
Kagan 23.0
Wood 16.0
Wardlaw 15.0
Granholm 10.0
Sears 6.0
Sullivan 5.1
Garland 4.9
Karlan 4.8



Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Brittain33 on May 13, 2009, 07:43:55 am
I think SCOTUS is a bit far for someone so young.

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Four years older than Milgram, and that proves my point.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 13, 2009, 01:40:46 pm
I think SCOTUS is a bit far for someone so young.

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Four years older than Milgram, and that proves my point.

I know.  I was showing a previous example.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 13, 2009, 08:22:48 pm
Wood now in third place on Intrade:

Sotomayor 28.5
Kagan 23.0
Wood 16.0
Wardlaw 15.0
Granholm 10.0
Sears 6.0
Sullivan 5.1
Garland 4.9
Karlan 4.8



I have thought for some time that it was basically going to come down to Kagan, Wood and Sotomayor, with Granholm having an outside shot.  Kagan strikes me as slightly less likely than the other two because I think the White House wants her to serve as SG and get some practical courtroom experience which she currently lacks.  Then they can have her primed for the inevitable second opening.

As for Wood vs. Sotomayor, I have no idea.  Both would probably be very good choices.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 13, 2009, 08:25:25 pm
This guy thinks Wood:
http://electionlawblog.org/archives/013644.html




Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 14, 2009, 02:32:16 pm
This guy thinks Wood:
http://electionlawblog.org/archives/013644.html

I only partially agree with Rick Hasen's analysis.  Still, my prediction is that President Obama will choose either Sonia Sotomayor or Diane Wood for the opening.  Both judges have a very extensive paper trail.  That leaves them open to attacks, but Obama will definitely know what he is getting.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 14, 2009, 11:25:47 pm
Someone call the forestry service.  Wood's on fire:

Sotomayor 27.0
Kagan 25.0
Wood 24.0
Granholm 14.0
Sullivan 5.1
Wardlaw 5.0



Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 16, 2009, 06:10:49 pm
Potential Dark Horse?
http://www.law.stanford.edu/directory/profile/15/


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 17, 2009, 12:06:11 am
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0509/If_only_they_had_the_franchise.html

A reader points out the most formal bit of SCOTUS lobbying to date: The Senate of Puerto Rico last week passed a resolution in support of Sonia Sotomayor for the Supreme Court.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Holmes on May 17, 2009, 12:40:33 pm
According to CNN, the finalists for this life-time appointment to the Supreme Court are: Sonia Sotomayor, Solicitor General Elena Kagan, Homeland Security chief Janet Napolitano, and Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, and California Supreme Court Justice Carlos Moreno. (http://www.rightsidenews.com/200905174801/culture-wars/obama-narrows-supreme-court-choices.html)

Picking Napolitano is stupid. I wouldn't mind Moreno because he's from California and it would make the author of that article's head explode, which I would enjoy.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 17, 2009, 02:00:06 pm
That's similar to FirstRead's list and I don't buy that those are all names on his final shortlist


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 17, 2009, 03:17:46 pm
That's similar to FirstRead's list and I don't buy that those are all names on his final shortlist

I agree. I imagine the list is longer than five names (every source always centers on five) and it likely has one or two surprises no one is thinking of.

I certainly doubt Napolitano is on the shortlist at all.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Sensei on May 17, 2009, 03:37:32 pm
That's similar to FirstRead's list and I don't buy that those are all names on his final shortlist

I agree. I imagine the list is longer than five names (every source always centers on five) and it likely has one or two surprises no one is thinking of.

I certainly doubt Napolitano is on the shortlist at all.
And Granholm? What the hell is that about?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 17, 2009, 03:42:54 pm
Obama himself is a Constitutional scholar, I can't believe that he'd choose someone with no experience in Constitutional philosophy that would make his pick look less credible.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 17, 2009, 03:53:01 pm
I'm starting to wonder if Napolitano's name is a red herring, tossed around by White House sources in order to confuse reporters. She has a close relationship with Obama, so obviously she must be in the game.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 17, 2009, 03:58:25 pm
When names get floated in the media for the Supreme Court, IMO they tend to fall into one of three categories.

The first are those who are truly under serious consideration.  Kagan, Sotomayor and Wood are almost certainly in this category.

The second are those who are being looked at primarily as a courtesy to satisfy some important person(s).  While it's possible for such a person to move from being a courtesy to serious consideration, more often than not I think that a "courtesy candidate" tends to remain just that.  IMO, Carlos Moreno falls into this category.  He was recommended by Senate Judiciary Committee Member Dianne Feinstein.  And it gives the White House the opportunity to say that they looked seriously at more Hispanics than just Sotomayor. 

The third are those whose names are floated just as a smokescreen.  As px75 suggested, I believe Janet Napolitano falls into this category. 


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 18, 2009, 11:29:38 am
the pick will occur "next week"


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Kameo on May 18, 2009, 09:53:55 pm
Sonia Sotomayor for all the obvious reasons.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: cinyc on May 19, 2009, 02:14:36 am
the pick will occur "next week"

That's what the media said last week.

There's really no reason to rush the pick - SCOTUS doesn't need a new Justice until October, and Senate Judiciary has too much on its plate to take up any nomination immediately, anyway.  Obama should make sure the candidate is fully vetted instead of rushing to nominate someone who we later find out, say, hasn't paid his taxes or has a nanny problem.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 19, 2009, 03:49:50 am
Obama himself is a Constitutional scholar
He should appoint himself. That would be fun to watch unfold.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 19, 2009, 04:19:15 am
I'm surprised that "Obama should pick Hillary" discussion has been dying down when it's been there since he won the nomination.  That's normally the type of stuff the media jumps for -- no one in the public has heard of anyone else.

What's Dick Morris's prediction?  Condi?


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: True Federalist on May 19, 2009, 12:59:40 pm
I'm surprised that "Obama should pick Hillary" discussion has been dying down when it's been there since he won the nomination.  That's normally the type of stuff the media jumps for -- no one in the public has heard of anyone else.

If he hadn't put Hillary in as Secretary of State, I could see it, but it would be beyond silly for him to nominate her to the Supreme Court just now.  If the vacancy had waited a couple more years, maybe then, but even then it would use up political capital better used elsewhere.  2015-2016 when Obama will be a lame duck (assuming he is reëlected.)


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 19, 2009, 02:43:12 pm
The National Law Journal has a story by Marcia Coyle in which she queries law professors about their preferred choice for the Supreme Court.  Interestingly, Pam Karlan emerges as the top favorite.  In theory, I think Karlan would be a terrific Justice.  However, her confirmation process would be incendiary.

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.jsp?id=1202430756479 (http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.jsp?id=1202430756479)

The article also notes very strong support for Diane Wood.  It is a big boon for Wood that she has such strong support from legal academics.  Having the recommendation of that Mandarin class definitely says something about her judicial ability.  Plus, she's a known quantity to Obama and many of his associates from their days together at the University of Chicago Law School.

In contrast, it seems much of Sotomayor's support is more at the street level.  Besides the obvious support of Hispanic organizations, she's been lauded by some community groups.  Someone has even started a "Sonia Sotomayor for U.S. Supreme Court Justice" facebook page with over 2300 members. 

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=74491867940 (http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=74491867940)

Not as highbrow as Wood's supporters, but her diverse experience might be compelling to a former community organizer.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 20, 2009, 02:09:27 pm
(
Img
)ANOTHER HISPANIC FEMALE CONSIDERED(
Img
)

http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0509/scotus_contender_40cf85da-70c7-4ce1-91fd-1b94de5a29b3.html

A Colorado-based district judge, Christine Arguello, has been approached about a possible appointment ...

to the Supreme Court, The Pueblo Chieftain reports. 

The Chieftain: “Arguello said she was asked a week ago by people in Washington and in Colorado ‘who are in direct contact with the White House’ if she ‘would be willing to go through the intense scrutiny’ that would occur if Obama nominates her.”

Her answer: “Yes.”


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 20, 2009, 10:22:47 pm
Here is more on Arguello:

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2009/05/20/obama-s-surprise-court-choice.aspx

Quote
Arguello, 53, was born to a family of railroad workers in the tiny town of Thatcher, Colorado. She was the first in her family to attend college, graduating from University of Colorado at Boulder and Harvard Law, where she was an editor of the Harvard Civil Rights-Civil Liberties Law Review. From 1980 to 1999, she practiced law and taught at the University of Kansas School of Law, subsequently serving as Colorado's Chief Deputy Attorney General under then Attorney General Salazar. After several abortive court nominations, she was confirmed as a Colorado District Court judge last December. At the time, The Rocky Mountain News wrote that "she believes her background will make her more understanding and empathetic to the 'common man' and attorneys who appear in her courtroom."

Also, Sotomayor has dropped quite a bit on Intrade:

Wood 36.0
Kagan 31.0
Sotomayor 18.0
Granholm 13.1
Wardlaw 10.0
Napolitano 5.0



Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 20, 2009, 11:45:01 pm
There have been a number of factors contributing to Wood's stock skyrocketing.  One of them had to have been this report:

Quote
Federal Appeals Court Judge Diane Wood, one of the leading contenders to replace David Souter, is in Washington today. The highly regarded Wood is here, ostensibly, to attend a legal conference at Georgetown. But the timing is curious, and here’s why.

According to a student, she didn’t teach her first-year civil procedure class at the University of Chicago Law School yesterday afternoon and provided no advance notice or explanation. That’s apparently because she was flying to DC—to attend the long-scheduled judicial conference, even though she is not on the program as a panelist or participant.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/legalities/2009/05/judge-wood-goes.html (http://blogs.abcnews.com/legalities/2009/05/judge-wood-goes.html)


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 21, 2009, 12:09:54 am
Outside of the whole "raising money off of a partisan fight" aspect of the SCOTUS issue, I suspect that Republicans somewhat prefer Wood because she's on the older side of things.

In my opinion, they should root for someone like Sotomayor that has plenty of bad press to feed into the noise machine, regardless of anything else that emerges, and can scream of tokenism.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 22, 2009, 01:36:31 am
here's an article whoring out a particular candidate.  My biggest prob with her is that she's an expert in Georgian, not national, law.  Also, with 60 seats the Democrats hardly need to find someone who's electable in Georgia haha.

http://ninthjustice.nationaljournal.com/2009/05/rauch-move-up-leah-ward-sears.php

I see that Stuart Taylor ranks Leah Ward Sears fourth on his handicap list for the Souter seat. She's stepping down as chief justice of the Georgia state Supreme Court. (She'll practice law and be a fellow of the Institute for American Values, a pro-family think-tank.) The three women above her on Stuart's list are all pretty spectacular people. But I had occasion to meet Sears last November and came away thinking, "That woman is going to be on the Supreme Court." At any rate, when President Obama looks her over, he is going to see a very appealing combination of qualities.

• Pro-family progressivism. Sears describes herself, according to sources in Georgia, as a moderate progressive. In criminal cases, she leans pro-defendant but is no ACLUer. She joined the court's majority in voting to overturn Georgia's sodomy law, earning hostility from the social right. But she also joined a unanimous opinion upholding an initiative banning gay marriage.

And she has a pet cause dear to the heart of social conservatives: shoring up the family. I met Sears in November at a conference ("For Children's Sake: A Summit on Marriage and Family") she was hosting with the Institute for American Values. There's an egalitarian family-law movement on the left that wants to equalize all family structures. No way, she says -- as in this 2006 op-ed in the Washington Post. She combines support for marriage with an egalitarian message: "Marriage is in deep danger of becoming about class structure and privilege." She takes her pro-family message to the black community, too. Obama's gotta like that.

• Political chops. Besides drawing generally high marks for her performance on the state Supreme Court, which she joined in 1992, Sears is an elected judge. A lot of judicial elections are cakewalks for incumbents, but she faced a serious challenge in 2004 from Republicans determined to defeat her and thereby tip the court. She handily beat back charges of being an activist liberal. For a left-of-center African-American in a red state, that is nothing to sneeze at.

Since Sandra Day O'Connor's departure, there has not been anybody on the U.S. Supreme Court with a political background. In fact, all of the current justices are former U.S. appellate judges, and eight went to Yale or Harvard. B-o-o-o-o-ring. Obama presumably wants to deliver on his promise of change, and he also wants to build the Democrats' brand and broaden the party's appeal. Appointing yet another bureaucrat in a black robe would hardly serve either purpose. But Sears, like O'Connor before her, has the potential to cut a national figure and even, perhaps, become a beloved public icon. That would be great for the Democratic brand.

• She's a pistol. At the conference in November, she moderated my session -- a discussion/debate on gay marriage -- with intelligence and no-nonsense aplomb. She can command a room. She is not someone you forget meeting. And she has that Clintonesque ability to make you feel you've bonded with her. On meeting me, she gushed about an article I wrote. ("Caring for Your Introvert." She said she was something of a closet introvert herself.) After three minutes, she had me eating out of her hand.

Obama, I hope, is less of a pushover than I am. But I can pretty much guarantee that Sears will interview well. (Here's a sample.)

Add that she is young (53) and a fresh face despite more than 20 years of experience on the bench. And -- did I almost leave this out? -- she is an African-American female. Her appointment would make history.

The far left of the Democratic Party might squawk about her friendship with Clarence Thomas and her affiliation with the Institute for American Values (which some have characterized as anti-gay, though it's not). That, however, would only help Obama tout her nomination as post-partisan and trans-ideological. Put it all together, and you have a package that takes some beating.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 22, 2009, 02:49:14 am
This is all a bit complex for me.  The one thing on this forum that I obsess about above all else are appointment decisions.  Yet this is not made completely out of political reasons but also legal influence.


Some of these things are difficult waters to read.

For example:  http://www.scotusblog.com/wp/judge-sotomayor’s-opinions-with-dissents-–-part-i/#more-9591 (http://www.scotusblog.com/wp/judge-sotomayor’s-opinions-with-dissents-–-part-i/#more-9591)
Quote
In United States v. Falso, 544 F.3d 110 (2008), Judge Sotomayor, joined by Judge Livingston, rejected a defendant’s plea to overturn his conviction based on a Fourth Amendment violation.  The defendant was arrested for possession of child pornography after FBI agents searched his home with a warrant.  The warrant application stated that an agent had purchased a  subscription to a website advertising available child porn and that in light of a subsequent forensic examination of the site “it appeared” that the defendant “either gained access or attempted to gain access” to the website as well.  In addition, the affidavit revealed that the defendant had previously been arrested in 1987 on charges of sexually abusing a seven-year-old girl and pled guilty to a misdemeanor charge of “acting in a manner injuriouss to a child less than sixteen” for which he received probation.  Writing for the majority, Judge Sotomayor held that this failed to establish probable cause for the search warrant. 


However, she held that the constitutional violation did not warrant exclusion of the evidence because the officers acted in good faith reliance on the wrongly-issued warrant.  She further rejected the defendant’s reliance on an exception to the exception: she concluded that there was insufficient evidence to show that the issuing magistrate was knowingly or recklessly mislead.  And she rejected the claim that the warrant application was so facially lacking in indicia of probable cause as to make reliance upon it unreasonable.  Judge Livingston concurred in part and in the judgment, but would have ruled that the police had probable cause.


These are both part of the same paragraph.  But you see how something this basic could be spun into a conservative blogosphere firestorm?  If we make a firestorm, I want it to be over something worthwhile, like whether someone who's gay can still be considered acceptable to serve.  I don't know.  I shall ponder and make my prediction this weekend.

Wood is by far the most likely candidate as of now.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 22, 2009, 12:13:49 pm
Taylor's ranking of Napolitano is a joke.  And he has Granholm and Napolitano ahead of Sotomayor, LOL.  He is either disingenuous or doesn't get it.

I would consider Ward Sears a serious candidate, but she is as much of a longshot as Jennifer Granholm, probably more so.  Her academic credentials (Cornell/Emory University School of Law) are not as overtly elite as Sotomayor's (Princeton/Yale Law School) and she would not carry as much political benefit to President Obama as Sotomayor would.  She isn't held in as high regard among legal academics as Diane Wood is.

Ward Sears decision to step down in the middle of her term, allowing Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue to move the Court to the right, has been criticized.  "It is very disappointing," said Stephen Bright, president and senior counsel of the Southern Center for Human Rights. "It appears she doesn't have time to be a judge." And the think tank she will be joining upon leaving the Court is drawing criticism from gay groups.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/15/AR2009051500418.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/15/AR2009051500418.html)


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 23, 2009, 10:38:48 am
You know, it's not totally unbelievable that Obama could end up on the Supreme Court if the next president is a Democrat.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 23, 2009, 11:26:38 am
You know, it's not totally unbelievable that Obama could end up on the Supreme Court if the next president is a Democrat.

I wrote about that in another thread.
If it somehow happens, then he will be the first person to serve at the highest level of all three branches of government (President, US Senator and Supreme Court Justice).


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 23, 2009, 03:21:58 pm
My brother's former professor said he thinks there is a secret plan for Sec. Clinton to run for President in 2016 (with Obama's support) and then appoint Obama to the Supreme Court.

In other news, President Obama confirmed in a recent C-SPAN interview that there is going to be an announcement "soon."

Quote
President Barack Obama told C-SPAN on Friday that he’s “going to have an announcement soon” on his pick for the Supreme Court, and said he is looking for “not just ivory tower learning.”

Asked if he would like to serve on the Supreme Court after leaving the White House, Obama quipped: “You know, I am not sure that I could get through Senate confirmation.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22885.html (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22885.html)


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 23, 2009, 03:26:43 pm
You know, it's not totally unbelievable that Obama could end up on the Supreme Court if the next president is a Democrat.

I wrote about that in another thread.
If it somehow happens, then he will be the first person to serve at the highest level of all three branches of government (President, US Senator and Supreme Court Justice).
Maybe he could serve as Governor of Illinois until a Supreme Court vacancy opens up? :)


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 25, 2009, 06:04:00 pm
ABC's Jan Crawford Greenburg and George Stephanopoulos are now echoing my prediction that it is now mainly down to Sotomayor and Wood:

Crawford Greenburg:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Story?id=7668848&page=1 (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Story?id=7668848&page=1)

Stephanopoulos:
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=7664212 (http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=7664212)


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 25, 2009, 08:11:02 pm
I'm gonna go with a longshot: Jennifer Granholm. She's a Harvard Law grad, has the "life experience" thing, and she'll be the fifth sitting governor Obama has given a job to. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but if I'm right, I look brilliant.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 25, 2009, 08:18:42 pm
Some massively under qualified person, whoever it is, to replace the person who was massively under qualified when they were appointed.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 25, 2009, 08:24:47 pm
Not so much a judgment on the current President, or the retiring Justice, just a plain and simple fact that the quality of the average Supreme Court Justice has rapidly gone down hill over the last 60 years.


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Lunar on May 25, 2009, 10:07:09 pm
My prediction remains Wood.  She's relatively older so less threatening.  Kagan is also less threatening since she's already been approved.  Both would pass supposed they pass vetting.

Wildcard/hopeful pick remains Karlan. *crosses fingers*


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 05:26:50 am
According to the New York Times it's down to the Final Four:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/26/us/politics/26court.html?_r=1&hp (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/26/us/politics/26court.html?_r=1&hp)

"The president has narrowed his list to four, according to people close to the White House — two federal appeals judges, Sonia Sotomayor of New York and Diane P. Wood of Chicago, and two members of his administration, Solicitor General Elena Kagan and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano."


I still say that Napolitano is a red herring and that Obama wants to leave Kagan as Solicitor General for a couple of years before he elevates her to the Supreme Court.

So, if the NYT is correct, the big final is between Sotomayor and Wood.

(paging Ogre Mage...) 


Title: Re: Who Will Be the Next SCOTUS Justice?
Post by: Purple State on May 26, 2009, 08:13:24 am
MSNBC says Sotomayor:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30938978/


And NYT just txted me saying the announcement will be at 10:15am today.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 26, 2009, 08:33:28 am
Kagan would've been a much better pick.  Still, at least he's likely to get more appointments than just this one.

At 55, she's the same age Sam Alito was when he was appointed.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Purple State on May 26, 2009, 08:36:06 am
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/05/26/behind_obamas_announcement.html

Why was Napolitano seriously considered?

Kagan would've been a much better pick.  Still, at least he's likely to get more appointments than just this one.

At 55, she's the same age Sam Alito was when he was appointed.

Sotomayor doesn't seem to be all that bad. Granted it would be nice to have a non-appeals court justice on the Court, but she could add some spice (pun not intended) to the bench.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 26, 2009, 08:41:24 am
Sotomayor doesn't seem to be all that bad. Granted it would be nice to have a non-appeals court justice on the Court, but she could add some spice (pun not intended) to the bench.

Not bad, no, but not my first or second choice.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Purple State on May 26, 2009, 09:07:40 am
Watching CNN. Reporter saying a WH official says of the shortlist candidates, Obama knew the least about Sotomayor and she won it in the interview. Mostly through her passion for the law and her life story.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Sam Spade on May 26, 2009, 09:19:14 am
Not terribly surprised, but then again who is.

I don't see how she doesn't get confirmed unless there's something terrible out there we're missing.  The stuff that's already out there is simply too weak.

My general impression having read her past 2nd circuit opinions is that she is no great intellect.  I found her writing and reasoning to be quite pedestrian, not unlike Alito, now that I think about it.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 09:20:49 am
great bold decision Barack...PSYCHE


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Purple State on May 26, 2009, 09:21:06 am
Does it help or hurt that she saved baseball? :P


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 09:25:04 am
I find it funny that Politico still can't find a color photo to headline


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 09:32:22 am
Republicans plan to pound a videotape in which Sotomayor said on a Duke University Law School panel in 2005 that the “court of appeals is where policy is made”

“And I know,” she added, “I know this is on tape, and I should never say that because we don’t make law. I know. O.K. I know. I’m not promoting it. I’m not advocating it. I’m — you know.”

Of the four widely reported finalists, Sotomayor was the one Republicans said they would complain most loudly about, and conservative legal groups attacked within minutes after Obama’s selection was reported.

Read more: "Breaking: Obama nominates Sonia Sotomayor - Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin - POLITICO.com" - http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22962_Page2.html#ixzz0Gcgpl6SN&A


Hopefully this won't end up being like Caroline Kennedy.  I hope she'll have a better explanation than that...


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Sam Spade on May 26, 2009, 09:37:03 am
Republicans plan to pound a videotape in which Sotomayor said on a Duke University Law School panel in 2005 that the “court of appeals is where policy is made”

“And I know,” she added, “I know this is on tape, and I should never say that because we don’t make law. I know. O.K. I know. I’m not promoting it. I’m not advocating it. I’m — you know.”

Of the four widely reported finalists, Sotomayor was the one Republicans said they would complain most loudly about, and conservative legal groups attacked within minutes after Obama’s selection was reported.

Read more: "Breaking: Obama nominates Sonia Sotomayor - Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin - POLITICO.com" - http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22962_Page2.html#ixzz0Gcgpl6SN&A


Hopefully this won't end up being like Caroline Kennedy.  I hope she'll have a better explanation than that...

She'll get coached to or come up with a better explanation (even though I agree the answer given there is terrible and once again shows signs of a pedestrian intellect). 

That is far from enough however.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Purple State on May 26, 2009, 09:39:51 am
I'm sure Obama's team has already found an explanation for that. It's a pretty easy find.

FoxNews doesn't seem to be hitting back to hard just yet. I imagine by the time we see BillO or Hanitty tonight we can expect YouTube videos, angry rants and the shaping of the conservative message.

Of course, I spoke too soon. Already pulled a quote where Sotomayor says a Hispanic woman would make better decisions than a white male.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 09:45:07 am
I'm sure Obama's team has already found an explanation for that. It's a pretty easy find.

FoxNews doesn't seem to be hitting back to hard just yet. I imagine by the time we see BillO or Hanitty tonight we can expect YouTube videos, angry rants and the shaping of the conservative message.

Of course, I spoke too soon. Already pulled a quote where Sotomayor says a Hispanic woman would make better decisions than a white male.

Actually there is no need for elaborate explanation.
Just read Anonymous Liberal's post where he explains what Sotomayor meant:

http://www.anonymousliberal.com/2009/05/more-republican-judicial-clowning.html (http://www.anonymousliberal.com/2009/05/more-republican-judicial-clowning.html)


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 09:46:03 am
http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0509/Five_GOP_Sens_voted_for_Sotomayor_in_98.html

Senate Republicans, led by then-Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.), blocked her nomination by Bill Clinton to the Second Circuit for an entire year, arguing -- presciently -- that she was being tapped in preparation for a SCOTUS appointment.

Sens. Robert Bennett (R-Utah), Thad Cochran (R-Miss.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) and Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) joined a unanimous slate of Dems in pushing Sotomayor through by a vote of 68-28.

Among the 29 Republican nays were current Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kent.), Minority Whip John Kyl (R-Ariz.), ranking Judiciary Committee member Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Past performance is no guarantee of future votes — and Sotomayor is already being targeted by conservative groups over comments she's made suggesting an activist streak.

On the other hand, she's the first Hispanic to be nominated for the high court — and every GOP leader with a pulse knows that opposing her could accelerate the stampede of Latinos out of the GOP in the southwest, west and Texas.

McCain, who has been extraordinarily sensitive to those trends (if unable to fight them) might be the real bellwether here: He's been a pretty reliable GOP soldier on SCOTUS, so if he breaks from his party early — or had really nice things to say about Sotomayor — it could be a sign that Sotomayor will have an easy time.

Also look out for what associates of Daddy Bush (Jim Baker, etc.), who first appointed her to the federal bench, have to say.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 09:48:46 am
I'm sure Obama's team has already found an explanation for that. It's a pretty easy find.

FoxNews doesn't seem to be hitting back to hard just yet. I imagine by the time we see BillO or Hanitty tonight we can expect YouTube videos, angry rants and the shaping of the conservative message.

Of course, I spoke too soon. Already pulled a quote where Sotomayor says a Hispanic woman would make better decisions than a white male.

Actually there is no need for elaborate explanation.
Just read Anonymous Liberal's post where he explains what Sotomayor meant:

http://www.anonymousliberal.com/2009/05/more-republican-judicial-clowning.html (http://www.anonymousliberal.com/2009/05/more-republican-judicial-clowning.html)

yeah the actual video shows her basically immediately correcting herself, more harmless than I had thought, but still damaging when taken out of context


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 26, 2009, 10:15:48 am
I'm guessing around 65-70 votes for her.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Zarn on May 26, 2009, 10:26:58 am
She is a big time activist. She tries to legislate Affirmative Action in new forms and rule her cases based upon ethnicity and sex.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 10:30:49 am
Democrats should hope for the Republicans to oppose her.

I bet the optics of a bunch of rich, white guys voting against a Hispanic woman who overcame poverty and rose to the top of the judicial field will do wonders for the popularity of the Republican party among Latinos and women.

Question: How will Mel Martinez vote?


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: The love that set me free on May 26, 2009, 10:49:28 am
Question: How will Mel Martinez vote?

Who cares? He's gone at the end of his term no matter what.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 10:51:47 am
http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0509/Rahm_gave_Snowe_a_headsup.html

Snowe's statement:

“Indisputably, this is an historic selection, as Sonia Sotomayor is just the third woman to be nominated to The Court and the first Hispanic American. I commend President Obama for nominating a well-qualified woman, as I urged him to do during a one-on-one meeting on a variety of issues in the Oval Office earlier this month.

“I also appreciate that White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel called me personally this morning to inform me of the President's selection."


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: © tweed on May 26, 2009, 10:54:01 am
gutless


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 10:56:22 am

I bet the optics of a bunch of rich, white guys voting against a Hispanic woman who overcame poverty and rose to the top of the judicial field will do wonders for the popularity of the Republican party among Latinos and women.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing and got depressed. God forbid you oppose someone of the same background of a group you're trying to win over politically.  ::)

This is exactly why this business is seen as a joke by so many. Then again, a lot of the same people will say that they don't like appointments based on background but they'll feel uneasy seeing the situation you described unfold. Nothing like another dose of white guilt for society.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 10:57:02 am
“I would hope that a wise Latina woman with the richness of her experiences would more often than not reach a better conclusion [as a judge] than a white male who hasn’t lived that life.”

-another Sonia quote we'll see showing up on FOX & Talk Radio.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 11:01:03 am
http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2009/05/26/rnc-fumbles-sotomayor-talking-points/

Whoops. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has apparently inadvertently released its list of talking points on the nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court.

Included on the released list were a few hundred influential Republicans who were the intended recipients of the talking points. Unfortunately for the RNC, so were members of the media.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Zarn on May 26, 2009, 11:16:04 am
Democrats should hope for the Republicans to oppose her.

I bet the optics of a bunch of rich, white guys voting against a Hispanic woman who overcame poverty and rose to the top of the judicial field will do wonders for the popularity of the Republican party among Latinos and women.

Question: How will Mel Martinez vote?


If he had any sense, he would try to filibuster it.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 11:20:14 am
Also, she ruled against the Hispanic side of the fighter-fighters' lawsuit, funny enough, although for the African-Americans.

Not that I agree with her.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 11:23:52 am

I bet the optics of a bunch of rich, white guys voting against a Hispanic woman who overcame poverty and rose to the top of the judicial field will do wonders for the popularity of the Republican party among Latinos and women.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing and got depressed. God forbid you oppose someone of the same background of a group you're trying to win over politically.  ::)


If the only reasons they oppose her are ideology and pure obstructionism, then you have every reason to feel depressed.

Unless you think that Jeff Sessions and Mitch McConnell are concerned about her credentials and intelectual heft.

Let's filibuster this racist bitch!  Who cares if she's qualified, the Dems set the precedent with their childish attempt to block Alito's confirmation.

Also, anyone who refuses to not confirm Sotomayor because she's a Hispanic is a coward.  Were Hispanics upset when Democrats tried to hold up Alberto Gonzales?  Did blacks take umbrage when the Democrats (predictably) tried to reject the first conservative black Supreme Court Justice?  There's a lot of things Hispanics care about, having one seat on the Supreme Court isn't one of them.

Someone missed the memo about not being funny anymore.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Franzl on May 26, 2009, 11:26:16 am
Let's filibuster this racist bitch!  Who cares if she's qualified, the Dems set the precedent with their childish attempt to block Alito's confirmation.

Also, anyone who refuses to not confirm Sotomayor because she's a Hispanic is a coward.  Were Hispanics upset when Democrats tried to hold up Alberto Gonzales?  Did blacks take umbrage when the Democrats (predictably) tried to reject the first conservative black Supreme Court Justice?  There's a lot of things Hispanics care about, having one seat on the Supreme Court isn't one of them.

Filibuster for the sake of it, or because you actually believe you have the votes to block cloture?


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 11:29:55 am


If the only reasons they oppose her are ideology and pure obstructionism, then you have every reason to feel depressed.

No, troll, I'm depressed that people like yourself try to guilt Republicans into supporting her because she's a woman and Hispanic.

I've made clear that I don't support holding up any nomination because of ideological differences. That doesn't mean I'll just roll over and accept her because it's historic.

As Vander said, there was no outrage by the Dems when other historic nominees were held up.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 11:31:32 am
Actually, weren't the Democrats put in a political bind over the Thomas confirmation, even if they didn't all run over and support him?  I thought they felt pressure to confirm the first African-American justice.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 11:34:02 am
Actually, weren't the Democrats put in a political bind over the Thomas confirmation, even if they didn't all run over and support him?  I thought they felt pressure to confirm the first African-American justice.

They didn't feel enough guilt when they decided to side with Anita Hill...

Again, no outrage over Gonzales either. If we want to play this game about getting on board with historic nominations, just realize that it goes both ways. It's such a shame that this stuff defines politics. It's no wonder why some of us want out...


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 11:47:51 am
Actually, weren't the Democrats put in a political bind over the Thomas confirmation, even if they didn't all run over and support him?  I thought they felt pressure to confirm the first African-American justice.

They didn't feel enough guilt when they decided to side with Anita Hill...

Again, no outrage over Gonzales either. If we want to play this game about getting on board with historic nominations, just realize that it goes both ways. It's such a shame that this stuff defines politics. It's no wonder why some of us want out...

Of course you conveniently forget thev fact that Gonzalez was demonstrably unqualified for his post and the poster boy of cronyism.

And I remember that the Republicans bullying the Democrats was actually the norm for the last two decades (Iraq War Resolution anyone? ). Not much whining by Phil I suppose during that period.   


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 26, 2009, 11:51:18 am
I would like to hear details about this case before I state my opinion.  On principle I don't agree with her decision either but I would like to know what led her to it.
Also, she ruled against the Hispanic side of the fighter-fighters' lawsuit, funny enough, although for the African-Americans.

Not that I agree with her.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Joe Republic on May 26, 2009, 12:00:36 pm
Actually, weren't the Democrats put in a political bind over the Thomas confirmation, even if they didn't all run over and support him?  I thought they felt pressure to confirm the first African-American justice.

Thurgood Marshall would like a word with you.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on May 26, 2009, 12:05:18 pm
Great, a centrist judge and former Bush appointee.

Remind me what party is in power again?


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 12:07:08 pm


Of course you conveniently forget thev fact that Gonzalez was demonstrably unqualified for his post and the poster boy of cronyism.

And if some minority nominee was hilariously unqualified, you'd still be saying that the GOP will suffer among minority groups and you'd love it. Why would we suffer? Well, because we're the party of fat, old, white men opposing a poor minority and too many people are totally concerned with that aspect of the debate.

No comment from you concerning Thomas' nomination. I'm sure you would have hailed that as historic, right?

Quote
And I remember that the Republicans bullying the Democrats was actually the norm for the last two decades (Iraq War Resolution anyone? ). Not much whining by Phil I suppose during that period.   

Uh...what does that have to do with guilting someone to support someone else because of their ethnic/gender background?

And actually some of us were very disgusted with bullying Democrats about their supposed lack of patriotism. I've made that very clear in the past so get a clue before you post your usual nonsense.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Sam Spade on May 26, 2009, 12:22:04 pm
I'm sure Obama's team has already found an explanation for that. It's a pretty easy find.

FoxNews doesn't seem to be hitting back to hard just yet. I imagine by the time we see BillO or Hanitty tonight we can expect YouTube videos, angry rants and the shaping of the conservative message.

Of course, I spoke too soon. Already pulled a quote where Sotomayor says a Hispanic woman would make better decisions than a white male.

Actually there is no need for elaborate explanation.
Just read Anonymous Liberal's post where he explains what Sotomayor meant:

http://www.anonymousliberal.com/2009/05/more-republican-judicial-clowning.html (http://www.anonymousliberal.com/2009/05/more-republican-judicial-clowning.html)

(sighs) This is what now qualifies as a big-time litigator in a large law firm.  ::)

Look, both this genius and the soon-to-be SC justice are correct in a certain sense, but fail to appreciate the nuance between a corollary function and the necessary function of an Appeals court judge.  Or at least that's what her statement originally failed to acknowledge.

The necessary function of an Appeals court judge is to review rulings and decisions mainly made by District Courts (and some other courts in certain situations, including bankruptcy courts, tax courts, even occasionally magistrate courts if the issue is a real live one, etc.).  In reviewing these decisions, using whatever standard of review is applicable (usually under SC precedent), the Appeals court makes a decision applying SC precedent strictly to the specific factual and legal issues at hand.  In other words, at a literal level, the Appeals Court is merely empowered to the function to apply SC precedent in review of District Court rulings and decisions.

Now, as one could easily figure out, the situations where SC precedent and District Court rulings, decisions, etc. overlap are not that common (though more common than you might think).  Henceforth, any decision where the application of SC precedent is not on point leaves open the use of policy to make a judgment (in addition to straightforward applications of law - such as with statutes).  Invariably, all these decisions which do not "merely quote SC precedent and move along" form their own separate universe of interpretation within that Circuit, but fundamentally and most importantly at the theoretical level, all of these decisions are made still strictly follow SC precedent.  This occurs even when different Circuits reach different conclusions (based on different policy) regarding a legal issue.

Therefore, the use of policy in interpreting SC precedent not on point (not to mention Circuit precedent, but it presents less issues) is a function of an Appeals Court judge but it is a corollary function which derives from the necessary and basic function of an Appeals Court judge, as stated above.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Joe Republic on May 26, 2009, 12:30:51 pm
http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2009/05/26/rnc-fumbles-sotomayor-talking-points/

Whoops. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has apparently inadvertently released its list of talking points on the nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court.

Included on the released list were a few hundred influential Republicans who were the intended recipients of the talking points. Unfortunately for the RNC, so were members of the media.

I'm surprised it wasn't leaked through Twitter.  That seems to be the way the Republicans do things these days.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 12:32:06 pm


Of course you conveniently forget thev fact that Gonzalez was demonstrably unqualified for his post and the poster boy of cronyism.

And if some minority nominee was hilariously unqualified, you'd still be saying that the GOP will suffer among minority groups and you'd love it. Why would we suffer? Well, because we're the party of fat, old, white men opposing a poor minority and too many people are totally concerned with that aspect of the debate.

No comment from you concerning Thomas' nomination. I'm sure you would have hailed that as historic, right?

Quote
And I remember that the Republicans bullying the Democrats was actually the norm for the last two decades (Iraq War Resolution anyone? ). Not much whining by Phil I suppose during that period.   

Uh...what does that have to do with guilting someone to support someone else because of their ethnic/gender background?

And actually some of us were very disgusted with bullying Democrats about their supposed lack of patriotism. I've made that very clear in the past so get a clue before you post your usual nonsense.

1)I don't care about the political leanings or the ethnic background of any nominee. I live in a homogenous country and that kind of thinking is non-existent here.

Thomas was also obviously unqualified. He should have been rejected.

And yes, the Republicans don't enjoy the benefit of the doubt that the Democrats do regarding minorities. That's the price they pay for 40 years of  being the Party of White Resentment.

2)If you really were disgusted by the bullying and patriotism-mongering by the Republicans in 2002, then I applaud you.
But the fact is that identity politics is alive and well, for better or worse. Of course the Democrats will play the Latino card in order to corner the Republicans and paint them as Anti-Hispanic.
It shouldn't be like that, but then again in a perfect world we shouldn't have a racist creep like Sessions judging her or any other judicial nominee for that matter.

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2009/05/26/rnc-fumbles-sotomayor-talking-points/

Whoops. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has apparently inadvertently released its list of talking points on the nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court.

Included on the released list were a few hundred influential Republicans who were the intended recipients of the talking points. Unfortunately for the RNC, so were members of the media.

I'm surprised it wasn't leaked through Twitter.  That seems to be the way the Republicans do things these days.

I guess it was a tad long to be twittered.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on May 26, 2009, 12:37:12 pm
Quote from: RNC Talking Points
o Justice Souter's retirement could move the Court to the left and provide a critical fifth vote for:

    o Further eroding the rights of the unborn and property owners;

    o Imposing a federal constitutional right to same-sex marriage;

    o Stripping "under God" out of the Pledge of Allegiance and completely secularizing the public square;

    o Abolishing the death penalty;

    o Judicial micromanagement of the government's war powers.

I wish.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 12:47:18 pm


1)I don't care about the political leanings or the ethnic background of any nominee. I live in a homogenous country and that kind of thinking is non-existent here.

::)

Of course you don't have to care about it there which makes it even more hypocritical that you take joy in it being an issue here.

Quote
Thomas was also obviously unqualified. He should have been rejected.

LOL

I won't even ask why...

Quote
And yes, the Republicans don't enjoy the benefit of the doubt that the Democrats do regarding minorities. That's the price they pay for 40 years of  being the Party of White Resentment.

Predictable

Quote
2)If you really were disgusted by the bullying and patriotism-mongering by the Republicans in 2002, then I applaud you.

I am and always have been.

Quote
But the fact is that identity politics is alive and well, for better or worse. Of course the Democrats will play the Latino card in order to corner the Republicans and paint them as Anti-Hispanic.
It shouldn't be like that, but then again in a perfect world we shouldn't have a racist creep like Sessions judging her or any other judicial nominee for that matter.

Fair enough but I wouldn't take joy in it like you are (just as I didn't take joy in the fact that calling Dems unpatriotic was popular for awhile).


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 12:53:56 pm


1)I don't care about the political leanings or the ethnic background of any nominee. I live in a homogenous country and that kind of thinking is non-existent here.

::)

Of course you don't have to care about it there which makes it even more hypocritical that you take joy in it being an issue here.

Quote
Thomas was also obviously unqualified. He should have been rejected.

LOL

I won't even ask why...

Quote
And yes, the Republicans don't enjoy the benefit of the doubt that the Democrats do regarding minorities. That's the price they pay for 40 years of  being the Party of White Resentment.

Predictable

Quote
2)If you really were disgusted by the bullying and patriotism-mongering by the Republicans in 2002, then I applaud you.

I am and always have been.

Quote
But the fact is that identity politics is alive and well, for better or worse. Of course the Democrats will play the Latino card in order to corner the Republicans and paint them as Anti-Hispanic.
It shouldn't be like that, but then again in a perfect world we shouldn't have a racist creep like Sessions judging her or any other judicial nominee for that matter.

Fair enough but I wouldn't take joy in it like you are (just as I didn't take joy in the fact that calling Dems unpatriotic was popular for awhile).


1)How am I hypocrite when I state the obvious? And I can assure you that I'm not jumping up and down of joy right now.

2)Thomas WAS unqualified. The American Bar Association said so.

3)If there is some joy in all that, it is coming from seing the Republicans squirm in their seats like the Democrats did for the last twenty years. You know, like when you see a movie villain gets his comeuppance. ;)


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 01:02:49 pm

1)How am I hypocrite when I state the obvious? And I can assure you that I'm not jumping up and down of joy right now.

Uh, what?

I'm not jumping up and down in joy because I'm tired of people trying to force me into supporting someone because their selection is racially/ethnically historic and you find it amusing that we're in this bind.

You're being a hypocrite because you expect this to be an issue here and want to guilt anyone that doesn't support this woman but don't care to see it our way even though you live in a homogenous country.

Quote
2)Thomas WAS unqualified. The American Bar Association said so.

And why is that?



Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: paul718 on May 26, 2009, 02:15:09 pm
Does anyone think Ricci v. DeStefano might derail her candidacy?  I haven't read the opinion yet, but at face value I hate it.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 26, 2009, 02:42:16 pm
Phil, come on you really think Thomas was qualified?  The only reason he was picked was because Bush had to pick an AA to replace Marshall and an ultra-conservative because you guys were pissed his first pick was a moderate like Souter and the only black guy he could find who fit that description was Thomas.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 03:12:31 pm

1)How am I hypocrite when I state the obvious? And I can assure you that I'm not jumping up and down of joy right now.

Uh, what?

I'm not jumping up and down in joy because I'm tired of people trying to force me into supporting someone because their selection is racially/ethnically historic and you find it amusing that we're in this bind.

You're being a hypocrite because you expect this to be an issue here and want to guilt anyone that doesn't support this woman but don't care to see it our way even though you live in a homogenous country.

The racial/ethic angle would be reprehensible IF Sotomayor was unqualified. Since that obviously isn't the case here, it's an added political bonus for Obama and the Democrats. And they should be sued for political malpractice if they don't take advantage of the situation.

In case you don't know, I'm not in a position to guilt anybody into voting for her confirmation. I'm just a guy with a PC, commenting the latest political developments.
If you oppose her because of her judicial philosophy then fine. I'm not going to call you a bigot or anything else. You are entitled to have your opinion. 

And pardon me if I find amusing the situation in which the Republicans are, but their predicament is entirely self-inflicted. How can I not be amused when I see Huckabee rushing so much to blast Obama's choice, that he got her name wrong in his statement (''Maria Sotomayor''). 

And I really don't understand what do you want to say about Thomas. The guy is a living example of tokenism, not surpased until last fall when the world learned of Sarah Palin. 


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 04:11:49 pm
Phil, come on you really think Thomas was qualified?  The only reason he was picked was because Bush had to pick an AA to replace Marshall and an ultra-conservative because you guys were pissed his first pick was a moderate like Souter and the only black guy he could find who fit that description was Thomas.

I didn't see one reason why he wasn't qualified in that post.


The racial/ethic angle would be reprehensible IF Sotomayor was unqualified. Since that obviously isn't the case here, it's an added political bonus for Obama and the Democrats. And they should be sued for political malpractice if they don't take advantage of the situation.

So we're supposed to be guilted into supporting her based on race anyway? Sorry but some of us don't like that.


Quote
And pardon me if I find amusing the situation in which the Republicans are, but their predicament is entirely self-inflicted. How can I not be amused when I see Huckabee rushing so much to blast Obama's choice, that he got her name wrong in his statement (''Maria Sotomayor'').

And we come back to the handwringing as the issue. Why is this self inflicted? Because we're not bowing at her feet because she's a minority?
 

Quote
And I really don't understand what do you want to say about Thomas. The guy is a living example of tokenism, not surpased until last fall when the world learned of Sarah Palin. 

Haha, wow. Still no reasons why Thomas was unqualified. And this has to be the first time I ever heard that Thomas was not up for the job. I know the left despises him but he's always been hailed as an intelligent jurist.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 04:20:27 pm
I mentioned a reason why Thomas is considered unqualified. You can ignore it but don't tell me I havn't given any.

And the Republican's predicament is self-inflicted because they let the Tancredo wing of the party define their image regarding imigration.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 04:23:03 pm
I mentioned a reason why Thomas is considered unqualified. You can ignore it but don't tell me I havn't given any.

I'm sorry but saying that the Bar said he was unqualified isn't going to cut it. Can you give their reasons, please?



Quote
And the Republican's predicament is self-inflicted because they let the Tancredo wing of the party define their image regarding imigration.

::)

I'm certainly not in the Tancredo wing but I guess supporting the rule of law instead of caving to whatever is politically popular with the new swing bloc of voters is just insane.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Saxwsylvania on May 26, 2009, 04:31:22 pm
The ABA never said that Thomas was unqualified - the official vote was split.  Democrats' main reason for opposing Thomas is the fact that he is a black Republican and not because he is a conservative.  Democrats cannot stand the idea of a black Republican, as evidenced by their vicious attacks on Ken Blackwell, Michael Steele, and (likely to come) the GOP candidate in Colorado and J.C. Watts should he choose to run again.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 04:31:38 pm
Actually, weren't the Democrats put in a political bind over the Thomas confirmation, even if they didn't all run over and support him?  I thought they felt pressure to confirm the first African-American justice.

Thurgood Marshall would like a word with you.

I'm going to quit using the word "first" since I always get in trouble.

And he's dead so I don't care.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 04:35:24 pm
I mentioned a reason why Thomas is considered unqualified. You can ignore it but don't tell me I havn't given any.

I'm sorry but saying that the Bar said he was unqualified isn't going to cut it. Can you give their reasons, please?


They don't make public neither the way their members vote, not the reasons for doing so.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 04:39:16 pm
I mentioned a reason why Thomas is considered unqualified. You can ignore it but don't tell me I havn't given any.

I'm sorry but saying that the Bar said he was unqualified isn't going to cut it. Can you give their reasons, please?


They don't make public neither the way their members vote, not the reasons for doing so.

Ok so forgive me for not jumping at that wonderful bit of "evidence" as to why he's not qualified.

Also, Vander claims the vote was split. Whose telling the truth?


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 04:47:06 pm
Judge for yourself.

http://www.nytimes.com/1991/08/28/us/bar-association-splits-on-fitness-of-thomas-for-the-supreme-court.html (http://www.nytimes.com/1991/08/28/us/bar-association-splits-on-fitness-of-thomas-for-the-supreme-court.html)



Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 04:51:56 pm
Judge for yourself.

http://www.nytimes.com/1991/08/28/us/bar-association-splits-on-fitness-of-thomas-for-the-supreme-court.html (http://www.nytimes.com/1991/08/28/us/bar-association-splits-on-fitness-of-thomas-for-the-supreme-court.html)



Again, they didn't rule that he is unqualified.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Nym90 on May 26, 2009, 05:31:57 pm
I'm still trying to dig up Jmfcst's thread about how Bush should choose Alberto Gonzales for the Court because it would be political suicide for Dems to oppose the first Hispanic nominee. I think it might have been on the old Forum (it was at a time when there wasn't a vacancy). In any event, will be interesting to see if he feels likewise with Sotomayor and the GOP.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Nym90 on May 26, 2009, 05:34:40 pm
Quote from: RNC Talking Points
o Justice Souter's retirement could move the Court to the left and provide a critical fifth vote for:

    o Further eroding the rights of the unborn and property owners;

    o Imposing a federal constitutional right to same-sex marriage;

    o Stripping "under God" out of the Pledge of Allegiance and completely secularizing the public square;

    o Abolishing the death penalty;

    o Judicial micromanagement of the government's war powers.

I wish.

I assume when they mean "could" they are referring to the future possibility of one of the conservative justices dying (I doubt any of the 5 will retire under an Obama presidency). Were there any cases in which Souter was actually the swing vote and to the right of Kennedy? Would be interesting to dig up some.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Rowan on May 26, 2009, 05:46:53 pm
Is there a bigger hack than px75?


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 05:51:01 pm
Is there a bigger hack than px75?

Speaking of the devil...

Glenn Beck shows his class once again via his Twitter account:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/glenn-beck-can-messiah-obama-heal-sotomayors-diabetes.php (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/glenn-beck-can-messiah-obama-heal-sotomayors-diabetes.php)

''Does the nominee still have Diabetes? Could the Messiah heal her, or does she just not want to ask? What is protocal (sic) on miracle healings?''


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 26, 2009, 06:03:18 pm
Is there a bigger hack than px75?

Speaking of the devil...

Glenn Beck shows his class once again via his Twitter account:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/glenn-beck-can-messiah-obama-heal-sotomayors-diabetes.php (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/glenn-beck-can-messiah-obama-heal-sotomayors-diabetes.php)

''Does the nominee still have Diabetes? Could the Messiah heal her, or does she just not want to ask? What is protocal (sic) on miracle healings?''


Beck is such a prick.  But his inability to spell is amusing


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 06:05:36 pm
Is there a bigger hack than px75?

Speaking of the devil...

Glenn Beck shows his class once again via his Twitter account:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/glenn-beck-can-messiah-obama-heal-sotomayors-diabetes.php (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/glenn-beck-can-messiah-obama-heal-sotomayors-diabetes.php)

''Does the nominee still have Diabetes? Could the Messiah heal her, or does she just not want to ask? What is protocal (sic) on miracle healings?''


Beck is such a prick.  But his inability to spell is amusing

I'm starting to think that Coburn in 2012 and Blubb are imitating him in the spelling aspect, as a form of flattery.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on May 26, 2009, 06:41:43 pm
I'm still trying to dig up Jmfcst's thread about how Bush should choose Alberto Gonzales for the Court because it would be political suicide for Dems to oppose the first Hispanic nominee. I think it might have been on the old Forum (it was at a time when there wasn't a vacancy). In any event, will be interesting to see if he feels likewise with Sotomayor and the GOP.

I think that would have been Estrada


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Nym90 on May 26, 2009, 06:43:27 pm
I'm still trying to dig up Jmfcst's thread about how Bush should choose Alberto Gonzales for the Court because it would be political suicide for Dems to oppose the first Hispanic nominee. I think it might have been on the old Forum (it was at a time when there wasn't a vacancy). In any event, will be interesting to see if he feels likewise with Sotomayor and the GOP.

I think that would have been Estrada

Ah yes, ok, that's right. Thanks. My memory is failing me in my old age. Though I guess the fact that I still remember random threads from about 7 years ago ain't too shabby to begin with. :)


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 06:57:41 pm
Speaking of Sotomayor's diabetes...

Can anyone tell me why anyone ought to care about this? I saw on the CNN ticker that diabetes groups are praising her appointment. Uh...what exactly are they saying? "We are glad a Supreme Court Justice will finally have to use an insulin pump. That is all."


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Iosif on May 26, 2009, 06:59:32 pm
Speaking of Sotomayor's diabetes...

Can anyone tell me why anyone ought to care about this? I saw on the CNN ticker that diabetes groups are praising her appointment. Uh...what exactly are they saying? "We are glad a Supreme Court Justice will finally have to use an insulin pump. That is all."

Or that this appointment is a sign that diabetes is no longer an obstacle to success...

Of all the things to moan about...


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Eraserhead on May 26, 2009, 07:37:12 pm
Boogie Down represent!




Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: J. J. on May 26, 2009, 07:40:55 pm
Speaking of Sotomayor's diabetes...

Can anyone tell me why anyone ought to care about this? I saw on the CNN ticker that diabetes groups are praising her appointment. Uh...what exactly are they saying? "We are glad a Supreme Court Justice will finally have to use an insulin pump. That is all."

Or that this appointment is a sign that diabetes is no longer an obstacle to success...

Of all the things to moan about...

Ah, when was it?


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 07:42:29 pm
Speaking of Sotomayor's diabetes...

Can anyone tell me why anyone ought to care about this? I saw on the CNN ticker that diabetes groups are praising her appointment. Uh...what exactly are they saying? "We are glad a Supreme Court Justice will finally have to use an insulin pump. That is all."

Or that this appointment is a sign that diabetes is no longer an obstacle to success...

Of all the things to moan about...

::)

I'm not moaning about it and I don't know of anyone that ever said or implied that diabetes is an obstacle to success.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2009, 07:58:23 pm
Speaking of Sotomayor's diabetes...

Can anyone tell me why anyone ought to care about this? I saw on the CNN ticker that diabetes groups are praising her appointment. Uh...what exactly are they saying? "We are glad a Supreme Court Justice will finally have to use an insulin pump. That is all."

Or that this appointment is a sign that diabetes is no longer an obstacle to success...

Of all the things to moan about...

::)

I'm not moaning about it and I don't know of anyone that ever said or implied that diabetes is an obstacle to success.


It was an obstacle because it prevented her from becoming a policeman or PI, as mentioned in Obama's speech today.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 09:25:46 pm
Speaking of Sotomayor's diabetes...

Can anyone tell me why anyone ought to care about this? I saw on the CNN ticker that diabetes groups are praising her appointment. Uh...what exactly are they saying? "We are glad a Supreme Court Justice will finally have to use an insulin pump. That is all."

Or that this appointment is a sign that diabetes is no longer an obstacle to success...

Of all the things to moan about...

::)

I'm not moaning about it and I don't know of anyone that ever said or implied that diabetes is an obstacle to success.


It was an obstacle because it prevented her from becoming a policeman or PI, as mentioned in Obama's speech today.

Will diabetics suddenly be able to become police officers or PI's? Was there ever an obstacle for those with diabetes in the judiciary?

Come on, guys. If Obama nominated someone who is flat footed, we would be able to say he or she overcame a great obstacle because flat footed people can't serve in the military. It's completely irrelevant.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: War on Want on May 26, 2009, 09:30:31 pm
I am not thrilled by this appointment but I am pleased that there will finally be a second Latino on the Supreme Court(haha no one has heard of Benjamin Cardozo?). I am mostly happy with her desicions on the Court of Appeals too.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 26, 2009, 09:32:55 pm
http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2009/05/26/rnc-fumbles-sotomayor-talking-points/

Whoops. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has apparently inadvertently released its list of talking points on the nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court.

Included on the released list were a few hundred influential Republicans who were the intended recipients of the talking points. Unfortunately for the RNC, so were members of the media.


That's an easy mistake to make, to mistake some members of the media for members of the RNC.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on May 26, 2009, 09:32:57 pm
Benjamin Cardozo

Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2009, 09:36:42 pm
Benjamin Cardozo

Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!

Ok, enough already. Seriously.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Joe Republic on May 26, 2009, 09:45:11 pm
I am pleased that there will finally be a second Latino on the Supreme Court(haha no one has heard of Benjamin Cardozo?).

Cardozo was a Sephardi Jew of Portuguese descent, i.e. not a Latino.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on May 26, 2009, 09:50:31 pm
I am pleased that there will finally be a second Latino on the Supreme Court(haha no one has heard of Benjamin Cardozo?).

Cardozo was a Sephardi Jew of Portuguese descent, i.e. not a Latino.

Even the Portuguese connection is very tenuous: the family left the Iberian peninsula for the Netherlands during the Inquisition, then went to England, and then came to America before the Revolution.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: War on Want on May 26, 2009, 09:50:58 pm
Benjamin Cardozo

Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!  Jew!
Who says Jews can't be Latinos at the same time? ;)


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: War on Want on May 26, 2009, 09:51:36 pm
I am pleased that there will finally be a second Latino on the Supreme Court(haha no one has heard of Benjamin Cardozo?).

Cardozo was a Sephardi Jew of Portuguese descent, i.e. not a Latino.

Even the Portuguese connection is very tenuous: the family left the Iberian peninsula for the Netherlands during the Inquisition, then went to England, and then came to America before the Revolution.
Hey come on man, my race doesn't have very many accomplishments in this country. :P


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 26, 2009, 09:56:45 pm
I am pleased that there will finally be a second Latino on the Supreme Court(haha no one has heard of Benjamin Cardozo?).

Cardozo was a Sephardi Jew of Portuguese descent, i.e. not a Latino.

Even the Portuguese connection is very tenuous: the family left the Iberian peninsula for the Netherlands during the Inquisition, then went to England, and then came to America before the Revolution.
Hey come on man, my race doesn't have very many accomplishments in this country. :P

Hispanics are not a race.  And the Portuguese are obviously not Hispanic.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: War on Want on May 26, 2009, 10:11:36 pm
I am pleased that there will finally be a second Latino on the Supreme Court(haha no one has heard of Benjamin Cardozo?).

Cardozo was a Sephardi Jew of Portuguese descent, i.e. not a Latino.

Even the Portuguese connection is very tenuous: the family left the Iberian peninsula for the Netherlands during the Inquisition, then went to England, and then came to America before the Revolution.
Hey come on man, my race doesn't have very many accomplishments in this country. :P

Hispanics are not a race.  And the Portuguese are obviously not Hispanic.
They are generally somewhat of a culture though and almost all Hispanics share Spanish blood(not a common trait really). The Portuguese count to an extent, I think.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Nutmeg on May 26, 2009, 10:19:52 pm
This might have been discussed already, but the only thing (other than the affirmative action elements to Obama's stated criteria in choosing a nominee, although Sotomayor certainly seems well qualified, so I'm not as concerned at this point) that concerns me is her opinion in Ricci v. DeStefano.  Does anyone have any insights on this?  I haven't seen much analysis of this decision, perhaps since the case is still pending before the Supreme Court.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 26, 2009, 10:24:28 pm
This might have been discussed already, but the only thing (other than the affirmative action elements to Obama's stated criteria in choosing a nominee, although Sotomayor certainly seems well qualified, so I'm not as concerned at this point) that concerns me is her opinion in Ricci v. DeStefano.  Does anyone have any insights on this?  I haven't seen much analysis of this decision, perhaps since the case is still pending before the Supreme Court.

There's really nothing wrong with AA when it comes to Supreme Court appointments IMO.  I think it's actually a good thing.  I'm against making appointments based on race or other criteria when it comes to Cabinet positions, but that's because every secretary has a specific job and you must pick the best person.  Everyone on the Supreme Court however does the same job, so I think it is right that everyone is represented.

The firefighters case bothers me too to be honest.  It really depends though on the reasons why she reached that decision.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Sam Spade on May 26, 2009, 10:36:07 pm
The firefighters case is probably going to be overturned because of Kennedy, I suspect.  So her inclusion on the court would be irrelevant in that matter.

Still trying to figure out what race has to do with any of this.  She's qualified to be an SC justice.  I've already given my opinion as to what her impact will be.  That I feel fairly confident about.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 26, 2009, 10:46:08 pm
The firefighters case is probably going to be overturned because of Kennedy, I suspect.  So her inclusion on the court would be irrelevant in that matter.

Still trying to figure out what race has to do with any of this.  She's qualified to be an SC justice.  I've already given my opinion as to what her impact will be.  That I feel fairly confident about.

I suspect this (http://newmajority.com/ShowScroll.aspx?ID=2f0218a8-be6c-4380-9a44-f533327c01d4) is your opinion summarized?


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Nym90 on May 26, 2009, 10:48:58 pm
The firefighters case is probably going to be overturned because of Kennedy, I suspect.  So her inclusion on the court would be irrelevant in that matter.

Still trying to figure out what race has to do with any of this.  She's qualified to be an SC justice.  I've already given my opinion as to what her impact will be.  That I feel fairly confident about.

Erwin Chemerinsky disagrees with you on the persuasiveness and quality of writing thing: http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2009/05/26/why-sotomayor-is-such-a-good-pick.aspx

I guess we'll find out soon enough.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Sam Spade on May 26, 2009, 11:09:28 pm
The firefighters case is probably going to be overturned because of Kennedy, I suspect.  So her inclusion on the court would be irrelevant in that matter.

Still trying to figure out what race has to do with any of this.  She's qualified to be an SC justice.  I've already given my opinion as to what her impact will be.  That I feel fairly confident about.

I suspect this (http://newmajority.com/ShowScroll.aspx?ID=2f0218a8-be6c-4380-9a44-f533327c01d4) is your opinion summarized?

David Frum is an idiot.  I believe I have given my opinion on Sotomayor in other posts.  I don't know whether to believe Rosen's piece or not, so my opinion is not based on that.  One thing is also for sure - we're sadly not going to get any reexamination of eminent domain precedent with Sotomayor involved.

Honestly, unless I missed someone, I didn't believe that any of the possible appointees had enough power to overcome Roberts' influence of Kennedy.  You have to remember that where Kennedy is often the most agreeable to listening to the liberal wing's point of view is in terms of individual rights.  But he is still fundamentally a conservative, especially on the issues of race and abortion, in which I don't believe his opinions have changed much in the past 20 years, even when Scalia was hectoring him and when O'Connor was there for possible influence otherwise. 

Moreover, the individual rights support where good in some areas for the left (i.e. gay rights) is not good in other areas (i.e. 2nd Amendment, campaign contributions).

Furthermore, I disagree with Frum in that I think Kennedy has moved back to the right a good deal since Roberts got on the Court.  I think that key to that is that Roberts has really toned down Scalia's opinions.  During Rehnquist's reign, you would see Scalia often get assigned an opinion where he would write something extreme and never get the 5 votes necessary because Kennedy would revolt on something.  I'm seeing a lot, lot less of that now.

While we're talking about this, it is kind of amusing to see the left (and right too) in complete ignorance of the most important shift in the Court that's occurred in the last five years (which was on display in another opinion today) or so.  Scalia is basically, with the help of the Stevens/Ginsburg/Souter/Thomas alliance on one hand and the traditional right vs. left alliance on another, remaking and rewriting a lot of the criminal procedure constitutional interpretation in his own image.

I don't have any problems with this, since a lot of the post-Warren court jurisprudence in criminal procedure is confusing, to say the least (and I think Scalia has the best ideas).  But it is kind of amazing that it gets no publicity.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Sam Spade on May 26, 2009, 11:12:18 pm
The firefighters case is probably going to be overturned because of Kennedy, I suspect.  So her inclusion on the court would be irrelevant in that matter.

Still trying to figure out what race has to do with any of this.  She's qualified to be an SC justice.  I've already given my opinion as to what her impact will be.  That I feel fairly confident about.

Erwin Chemerinsky disagrees with you on the persuasiveness and quality of writing thing: http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2009/05/26/why-sotomayor-is-such-a-good-pick.aspx

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Chemerinsky writes a good Con Law hornbook information-wise, but quite frankly I found his writing style to be boring and academic.

If I am so picky about this area, it is because I consider legal persuasiveness to be one of the strong points in my legal writing. (and am not the only one).  :)


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: The Mikado on May 27, 2009, 12:06:07 am
I am not thrilled by this appointment but I am pleased that there will finally be a second Latino on the Supreme Court(haha no one has heard of Benjamin Cardozo?). I am mostly happy with her desicions on the Court of Appeals too.

I had a nice chat with a friend of mine about the Cardozo thing earlier.  The end result was the decision that this guy:
(
Img
)

is a pretty hard sell as a Hispanic, not least of which because of his Portuguese ancestry.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 27, 2009, 12:14:09 am
The only thing Hispanic about Cardozo is his name.  Portuguese in case someone didn't know is a different language than Spanish.  He's not Latino either. The term is meant to describe immigrants or descendants of immigrants from Latin America, not European countries like Portugal


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: ?????????? on May 27, 2009, 12:16:28 am
The only thing Hispanic about Cardozo is his name.  Portuguese in case someone didn't know is a different language than Spanish.  He's not Latino either. The term is meant to describe immigrants or descendants of immigrants from Latin America, not European countries like Portugal


Hispanic is a made up race anyway, a complete creation of the US Census Bureau.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Nym90 on May 27, 2009, 01:16:28 am
The only thing Hispanic about Cardozo is his name.  Portuguese in case someone didn't know is a different language than Spanish.  He's not Latino either. The term is meant to describe immigrants or descendants of immigrants from Latin America, not European countries like Portugal


Hispanic is a made up race anyway, a complete creation of the US Census Bureau.

Except for the fact that it's not considered a race by the Census Bureau.

I agree that it shouldn't really be treated any differently than any other European nationality. I think the only reason it is really is because most Hispanics are relatively recent immigrants and thus less assimilated (100 years ago there was just as much "racism" against Italians or Irish or Scandanavians or any other "minority" from Europe), and because there's so many more of them due to Spain's colonization of nearly all of Central and South America.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Nym90 on May 27, 2009, 01:20:11 am
The firefighters case is probably going to be overturned because of Kennedy, I suspect.  So her inclusion on the court would be irrelevant in that matter.

Still trying to figure out what race has to do with any of this.  She's qualified to be an SC justice.  I've already given my opinion as to what her impact will be.  That I feel fairly confident about.

Erwin Chemerinsky disagrees with you on the persuasiveness and quality of writing thing: http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2009/05/26/why-sotomayor-is-such-a-good-pick.aspx

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Chemerinsky writes a good Con Law hornbook information-wise, but quite frankly I found his writing style to be boring and academic.

If I am so picky about this area, it is because I consider legal persuasiveness to be one of the strong points in my legal writing. (and am not the only one).  :)

Well, perhaps in 25 years you will be chosen for the Court, Sam. ;)


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 27, 2009, 11:27:51 am
LMAO!!!!!

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/coleman-i-will-review-sotomayers-record-when-i-am-re-elected.php (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/coleman-i-will-review-sotomayers-record-when-i-am-re-elected.php)


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Wiz in Wis on May 27, 2009, 01:07:07 pm
The only thing Hispanic about Cardozo is his name.  Portuguese in case someone didn't know is a different language than Spanish.  He's not Latino either. The term is meant to describe immigrants or descendants of immigrants from Latin America, not European countries like Portugal


Last names, especially in the Americas, are not good predictors of ethnicity. My last name sounds Polish but I'm 75% German and 25% Dutch. Cardozo sounds Latin, but he was a Portuguese Jew. FWIW, the leader of the Chilean independence movement in the 19th Century was a man name Bernardo O'Higgins!


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 28, 2009, 12:16:57 am
One of my favorite Supreme Court writers, Linda Greenhouse, has a thoughtful editorial on how when a new Justice joins the Court, "you change the Court."  This is true, interestingly, even when the new and departing Justice hold similar views.

Quote
Every time a new justice comes to the Supreme Court, “it’s a different court,” Justice Byron R. White liked to say — and he was in a position to know, having witnessed the arrival of 13 new justices during his own 31-year tenure.

He meant that in a group of nine people bound together by daily ritual and by the need to round up a sufficient number of like-minded colleagues to get anything done, the substitution of one personality for another matters in real life more than it might seem to matter on paper.

It’s an obvious point, but one that is often overlooked in discussions of Supreme Court nominations when, as now, the departing justice’s successor is one who figures to occupy the same side of the ideological divide. President Obama’s nominee to succeed Justice David Souter, Judge Sonia Sotomayor, may not vote much differently from Justice Souter, who established a moderately liberal record during his 19 years on the court.

Even before President Obama made his selection, it was commonly said that this particular nomination would not be a “game changer” on today’s sharply polarized court, where two blocs of four justices seem to spend much of their energy competing for the affections of the one in the middle, Anthony M. Kennedy. (In two 5-to-4 decisions issued on Tuesday, Justice Kennedy voted once with the conservative bloc and once with the more liberal bloc; a third decision was unanimous.)

But even when it seems most static, the Supreme Court is a dynamic institution whose component parts are always, although not always visibly, in motion. John G. Roberts Jr. didn’t figure to be a game-changer either when President George W. Bush nominated him in 2005 to be chief justice. After all, Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, who had just died, was his former boss and longtime mentor, and no matter how conservative he might prove to be, it was hard to imagine him or anyone else finding much running room to Rehnquist’s right.

And yet there is a different tone now at the court, and not only because Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., President Bush’s subsequent nominee, is more conservative than the justice he replaced, Sandra Day O’Connor. John Roberts is a justice in a hurry; he pushes hard, like the young Associate Justice Rehnquist for whom he clerked, and in contrast to Chief Justice Rehnquist, who in his later years was capable of voting in surprising ways — to reaffirm the Miranda decision and reject a constitutional challenge to the Family and Medical Leave Act, for example.

It wasn’t that Chief Justice Rehnquist changed his mind on issues that mattered to him — there is no evidence of that. Rather, he seemed to have developed a sense for when it was best for the court, or perhaps even for the country, not to carry every favored proposition over a cliff to its logical conclusion.

That is a sense that Chief Justice Roberts did not appear to gain during his first years on the court; his 2007 opinion striking down voluntary school integration plans in Louisville, Ky., and Seattle was so hard-edged that Justice Kennedy refused to sign it, providing a fifth vote for the result but not for the chief justice’s reasoning.

Whether Chief Justice Roberts has developed a Rehnquist-style sense of when to hold back will be evident next month, when the court is expected to decide whether a central provision of the Voting Rights Act, renewed almost unanimously by Congress three years ago, is constitutional. Based on the deep skepticism he expressed when the case was argued last month, the answer is no.

Beyond Sonia Sotomayor’s stirring life story and impressive résumé, what we really want to know is how she will fit into this mix of ideology, personality, principle and politics. Will she make a difference? According to common sense as well as Justice White’s maxim, the answer is “yes, inevitably.” Will it be a difference that is discernible in the outcomes of cases? That may not be clear immediately.

After Justice Thurgood Marshall retired in 1991, Justice O’Connor published a tribute describing him as the embodiment of “moral truth” and recounting the experience of listening to his stories during the decade that they served together, stories that “would, by and by, perhaps change the way I see the world.”

That was a striking statement from a justice who was on the opposite side from Thurgood Marshall in nearly every civil rights case and whose jurisprudence appeared unmarked by his influence. But it turned out to be Justice O’Connor who wrote the majority opinion in 2003 that upheld affirmative action in admission to the University of Michigan Law School. The way she saw the world in the interval had clearly changed, whatever the cause.

Although she is a pioneer in her own way, it takes nothing from Judge Sotomayor to observe that she is not Thurgood Marshall — just as Anthony Kennedy, for that matter, is not Sandra O’Connor.

Indeed, not even the most experienced justice can count on finding an argument that will persuade Justice Kennedy. But there is some evidence that he can be inspired by example and observation. His opinion for the court in Lawrence v. Texas, the 2003 gay-rights case, clearly rested on his conclusion that gays were entitled to the “dignity,” as he put it, that the court’s earlier ruling on gay rights in Bowers v. Hardwick had withheld. That opinion, among others, indicates Justice Kennedy’s willingness to look through the eyes of those whose experiences are different from his own.

In any event, Judge Sotomayor’s nomination comes at a special moment: the first projection of the remarkable 2008 election onto a Supreme Court that has so often in these last few years appeared headed in the opposite direction from the country. Whether her arrival proves to change the way the incumbent justices see the world, it will, at the least, change the way the world sees the Supreme Court.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/27/opinion/27greenhouse.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/27/opinion/27greenhouse.html)



Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Nym90 on May 28, 2009, 02:31:53 am
This might have been discussed already, but the only thing (other than the affirmative action elements to Obama's stated criteria in choosing a nominee, although Sotomayor certainly seems well qualified, so I'm not as concerned at this point) that concerns me is her opinion in Ricci v. DeStefano.  Does anyone have any insights on this?  I haven't seen much analysis of this decision, perhaps since the case is still pending before the Supreme Court.

I posted a good analysis of it in the "Is Sotomayor a centrist?" thread. It's worth noting that her decision did uphold precedent.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 28, 2009, 12:29:36 pm
LMAO!!!

Part II

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/conservative-whispers-to-hill-reporter-concern-about-the-impact-diet-will-have-on-her-jurisprude.php#more (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/conservative-whispers-to-hill-reporter-concern-about-the-impact-diet-will-have-on-her-jurisprude.php#more)


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 28, 2009, 12:31:26 pm
LMAO!!!

Part II

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/conservative-whispers-to-hill-reporter-concern-about-the-impact-diet-will-have-on-her-jurisprude.php#more (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/conservative-whispers-to-hill-reporter-concern-about-the-impact-diet-will-have-on-her-jurisprude.php#more)

Makes as much sense as hailing her for being a diabetic.  :P


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: © tweed on May 28, 2009, 03:16:25 pm
"White man racist nominee would be forced to withdraw. Latina woman racist should also withdraw."  -Newt Gingrich


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: YRABNNRM on May 28, 2009, 03:17:17 pm
I love faux white outrage. It's pretty hilarious.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 28, 2009, 03:34:03 pm
I love faux white outrage. It's pretty hilarious.

What's more hilarious/disgusting is the fact that Gingrich made that comment while visiting Auschwitz.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Nutmeg on May 28, 2009, 03:34:25 pm
The firefighters case is probably going to be overturned because of Kennedy, I suspect.  So her inclusion on the court would be irrelevant in that matter.

In terms of the opinion, probably irrelevant, but in terms of indicating her judicial philosophy or ideology, quite relevant, I should think.


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 29, 2009, 04:14:45 pm
Your daily dose of fun from the lunatic fringe:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/liddy-lets-hope-sotomayor-who-speaks-illegal-alien-isnt-menstruating-at-conferences.php (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/liddy-lets-hope-sotomayor-who-speaks-illegal-alien-isnt-menstruating-at-conferences.php)

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/limbaugh-compares-sotomayor-nomination-to-picking-david-duke.php (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/limbaugh-compares-sotomayor-nomination-to-picking-david-duke.php)

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/gingrich-digs-in-on-sotomayor-bashing.php (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/gingrich-digs-in-on-sotomayor-bashing.php)


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Lunar on May 29, 2009, 04:48:51 pm
Can we get Liddy booked on a few more shows please?


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: © tweed on May 29, 2009, 08:32:35 pm
it's fun to watch the Republican Party turn to White Nationalism-lite; something I projected a while back


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 29, 2009, 09:24:07 pm
it's fun to watch the Republican Party turn to White Nationalism-lite; something I projected a while back

And let me reassure you that no one else made such a ridiculous projection either...


Title: Re: BREAKING: MSNBC reports Sotomayor next SCOTUS justice
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on May 29, 2009, 09:38:22 pm
it's fun to watch the Republican Party turn to White Nationalism-lite; something I projected a while back

Aren't they usually? :P