Talk Elections

If there is an economic crash, Mitt Romney is the obvious choice. If Obama has a great term, we'll just have to pray Jesus comes back and runs for public office. If Obama has a mediocore term, then I would go after Charlie Crist or John Huntsman Jr.

Right now, I don't see a savior in the probable candidates for the Republican Party. The GOP desperately needs to start breeding new stars. Perhaps they need a farm league?

Joe Biden

We need to start working on Aaron Schock. John Thune would be another decent candidate. Get them ready for the national stage. Palin would have been good, but she was thrust on the national stage so quickly, and didn't have time to adjust, which resulted in awful interviews making her look like an idiot. I mean, before those interviews, her approval ratings were higher than Obama or McCain's. I think she can still be a good candidate, if she puts herself around the right people and works on her interviewing skills.

If economic growth picks up, and jobs start to become more prevalent again by the time Obama runs for reelection (and he accomplishes health care reform by the end of this year), it won't matter whom the Republicans nominate.  Though, if they want to at least perform respectably, they can't go wrong with Mitt Romney (esp. with Jon Huntsman, Jr. out of the picture until at least 2016...).  

Charlie Crist seems like the best option, maybe John Hoeven.

Crist doesn't have much appeal outside of pundits. Also there's the gay rumor that just won't go away.

That's true.  If he could get through a primary, though, I'd say he's the best choice for the GOP.

Ronald Reagan.

Palin didn't just come off as an idiot by being unprepared, she proved herself to be an idiot by making idiotic statements. And not just throughout the campaign, throughout her career.

I don't think the flip flopping is as big of an issue as people think. Actually, given the trends in the base and country as a whole he may need to move further right on a few things (like guns) to be viable. That and do a better job addressing the whole Mormon issue than he did last time. With that said, I have a hunch he's going to be the compromise candidate given his run the last time plus his gains in the polls.

Huckabee, Romney, Thune, Sanford.

Did you misread where he said "to win"?

Mitt Romney, although I'm still hoping Chuck Hagel runs.

Uh?

I can't imagine that guy being a great national candidate. This suggestion is very Naso-esque.

Can't think of a better attention whore. I hope he stays out of the public eye now that he's retired.


As for the GOP, if the economy turns around, it doesn't matter who they field, they lose. I hope it isn't either Palin or Huckabee, because if it is, we're doomed. Romney would be tolerable, as would Sanford and Gingrich. I'd love to see Rudy run again, but unless the primary order changes, he's toast.

What?

EDIT: Damn, Phil beat me :P

If Palin runs it will be another election where intelligent people have no choice but to vote Democratic, even if they disagree with many of Obama's policies.

Why does anyone think Romney, Huckabee, or Thune can win?

Seriously, this is pretty silly to even guess at at this point.

I think even up into 2007 McCain's campaign passionately believed his support of the Iraq War would be by far his biggest liability going into the general election, when it turned out that McCain could actually use his support of the surge as a wedge issue against Obama.

I agree with the general sentiment that seems to be prevailing thus far; if there's a measurable economic recovery that your average voters feels, the Republicans will need the second coming of Jesus in order to win.  However if Obama's term is mediocre or downright bad, the Republicans could find success in a candidate who has strong credentials as a fiscal conservative to counter Obama's big spending.

Candidates like Huckabee and Palin may appeal strongly to the base the GOP has built for itself over the past 30-40 years but I doubt they'll have the nationwide appeal or credentials necessary to win.  Palin has proven herself to be completely incapable to such a degree that I think Obama could beat her even under the worst of circumstances.  And Huckabee's record as a "compassionate conservative" doesn't set him up very well to run a campaign of fiscal restraint.

I honestly don't think that any of the current "front runners" will make a significant mark on the 2012 campaign.  By the time the primaries roll around I think we'll be looking at a completely different field.  Some of the current players may still take a stab at it but I don't think any of them will make it past New Hampshire.  My feeling is that a new crop of candidates will have formed by then.  I think the 2010 mid-term is going to have a huge impact on the direction the Republicans take in 2012 so I'm not going to even attempt to speculate on who the GOP's savior might be until after that.

Barack Obama? :)

Corrected

Michelle Obama

Remove four or eight years from the Gregorian calendar.

The GOP needs someone who understands the last two election drubbings was the voters rejecting Bush's policies rather than him personally. I'm endlessly amused by how many conservative politicians and pundits acknowledge W's presidency as a failure, but when asked what policies they prescribe and it's unerringly identical to the last four years. The next nominee needs to understand the majority does not want Bush/Cheney redeux or even (gasp!) Reagan.

The ultimate GOP candidate needs the following:

1) An actual and genuine belief that the federal government has a role in providing services and benefits for the nation beyond national defense/border security and prisons. Someone who believes being a "compassionate conservative" is a real governing philosophy, not a campaign tag to woo moderate swing voters and discard a week after inauguration.

2) Someone with the business/governing background to reinforce their credentials as a fiscal conservative. They need to be able to effectively argue to the middle that while the general idea of the stimulus, etc. is OK, the Obama administration and liberals in congress mismanaged such efforts into a tax-wasting ineffective porkfest. "I can do what Obama tried to do, but without so much waste and expense".

3) At least acceptable to moderates on social issues, if not an actual moderate themselves. It's a canon of politics that the GOP nominee for the next couple decades will be pro-life and opppose gay marriage. But they will be much more palatable to voters if their positions defer to the states to choose laws ("repeal Roe v. Wade") as opposed to supporting constitutional amendments to ban abortion nationwide in all cases and legislatively divorcing thousands of gay/lesbian couples who will have already married under state laws. The nominee can oppose gay marriage (hell, even Obama currently, officially, does too), and even personally oppose civil unions (unlike say Jon Huntsman) as long as they at least concede the right of states to enact such measures.

Of the big names floating around, only Huckabee comes close on the first point--though his continued support of that nutty national sales tax scheme would undercut his standing here--but does poorly on the second point and epic fails the third. Romney, and to a lesser degree Palin, is fine on the second point, but utterly fails the first and third. For that matter the vast majority of likely GOP nominees fail the first point and honestly believe the only problem the GOP faces is a need for "rebranding" and a "public image makeover", not fundamental changes in policy and ideology. Michael Steele is the only the most public and laughable example of this mindset, but it's deeply ingrained throughout the entire party.

The only GOP name coming to mind that closest fits all three points is Charlie Crist. And even there his glowing public endorsement of Obama's stimulus would come back to haunt him anytime he tried arguing point #2--and not just in the Republican primaries either. This also assumes Marco Rubio won't upset him in the primary next year and effectively end his career, or that there aren't any other skeletons in his (ahem!) "closet".

The best that the GOP can do in 2012 is to not make fools of themselves -- should Obama be an effective President. The GOP can build credibility for 2016 or 2020 -- which it has yet to even begin.

No: Palin
Yes: someone as good as Obama. Eek!