Talk Elections

At this stage, what are your predictions on the winner of this fascinating Survivor ?

You should answer with 3 names, by order of likeliness.

As for me, I'm afraid that, without any originality and with a forum leaning left, Obama will win. Maybe, this time, nr.2 of the World Leaders Survivor will be more itneresting and contested thant nr.1 ! :)

I would say:
1. Obama
2. Lula
3. Rudd

I just hope Morales won't win... :(   Who knows ?!
I would be very disappointed and would drop my own plan of a big Survivor for this autumn ! ;)

1. Obama
2. Obama
3. Obama

That's why I think leaders from nr.5 to nr.2 will be the most interesting.... :))

1. Obama
2. Bachelet
3. Rudd

well with the current set up of the groups, i see it going this way.
group one: maybe the swede?
group two: obama obviously
group three:lula
group four:Bachelet
group five:Calderon would be my best guess.
but in anycase didn't hugh say hes changing the groups up? because if that happens my predication would be subject to change
and well i know you wanted me to do three i cant think of a good ranking of them other then obama coming in first.

The last time it was done we had 4 groups, then it was merged into 2 after we go to half down, then 1. I'm not sure how hugh will do it, but we'll likely have less groups after round 25.

1. Obama
2. Rudd
3. Brown

Would Rudd become a tough rival for Obama ?

Come on, guys, we need your predictions !

That's about predictions, not about votes, nor about wishes.
As for me, my predictions are quite different from my wishes, you can guess.

no rudd isnt exactly a better leader then obama.

     No, Rudd wouldn't be that likely to win, but you have to figure that as a leftist leader in the Anglosphere the odds of him winning are better than almost anyone else.

1) Obama
2) Lula
3) Zapatero

I have absolutely no idea of what we will choice. Forum's votes doesn't look to me particularly leftist, he is most of all particularly quirky. Here are my own preferences :
1. Obama
2. Zapatero
3. Bachelet

But they will certainly be a rightist in the final top 3.

Why would anyone vote for Rudd? He wants to censor the internet. He's a fascist.

I plan on voting for Obama at some point. Hopefully others will follow. I don't like when the person I predict will win, wins.

Bachelet and Johnson-Sirleaf are possible darkhorses.

That's because you're so far left yourself. :P

We've already voted off three democratically elected Western leaders: Harper, Sarkozy and Berlusconi. Hmm, is there a pattern there?

And dubious leftists like Morales and Correa remain in the running while similar right-winged leaders are almost all out by now I think.

Calderon is still there

     The point remains that the forum votes with a very strong left tilt. I strongly doubt that Morales should have placed half as well here as Sarkozy, let alone outlast him.

You put him on the same level as Morales and Correa? Anyway, you can't vote off all of them in the limited number of rounds we've had.

We did have to allot rounds to getting off Harper and Sarkozy before we could get to Calderon, right?

I'd much rather have Calderon gone than Harper. How soon we forget my move to give Harper immunity. (Only to force Sarkozy off :D )

BUMP.

And now ?

I would say the same three, as for me: Obama/Lula/Rudd

but I would add that Manmohan Singh may be, again, competitive.

And "small" darkhorses like Oscar Arias or Bohut Pahor can make it inside the top 5 or maybe even inside the top 3.

Singh won't win because he has already won, to put it simply. Enough people will vote against him for that reason alone.

Yeah, Obama and da Silva are strong contenders. The voting started off well this time but it has gotten more and more depressing. The hackish behaviour of voting off high-profiled right-wingers has taken its grip yet again.

Strong contenders:
Obama (50% chance of winning)
Rudd (20% chance of winning)
Balachet (15% chance of winning)

Weaker contenders:
Lula (5%)
Zapatero (5%)
Johnson-Sirleaf (2%)
Singh (2%)

Somebody else 1%