Talk Elections

While I am a moderate, he is one of my favorite conservatives in the Senate.  Is he safe in 2010 or any potential problems?

He's only in any real danger if Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin runs, and I think she's looking at becoming Governor as opposed to U.S. Senator, so I'd say he's pretty safe until/unless she changes her mind.

Thune is safe in 2010. 

South Dakota is one of those places where completely safe senators can exist that are close to the mainstream of different parties.

He's probably safe if Stephanie runs too, which is why she won't.  She's definitely looking at the governor race instead, but is probably even a little wary of that.

I spent all of September doing research in South Dakota, and often asked random people who would win a Thune vs. Sandlin Senate matchup.  Everyone said they liked Sandlin, and it would be a close race, but Thune would win.  This isn't scientific polling, of course, just emperical observations.

I agree with the general consensus here- Sandlin would be a strong, perhaps unbeatable, candidate for governor, and I strongly expect to see her on a national ticket at some point in my lifetime.  Because SD only has one congressional district its very easy indeed for a congresswoman to jump to a higher office, as she is known state-wide.

Thune will win easily.

I would be interested to see some hypothetical general election match-up polls between Sandlin and Thune. I think Thune would have the edge, but Sandlin would definitely make it a race to watch in an otherwise safe GOP seat.

Everyone on here seems to like Mr. Thune. He's very good to look at, but not much fun to listen to. :P

Kos had a poll a couple of months ago. It showed Thune beating Sandlin and Daschle by a similar 12-13 point margin (around 51-38).

Thank you px75.

Similar to the Oklahoma polls of Coburn vs. Henry.

I think it's unlikely Herseth will challenge Thune.  She is in a perfectly safe House seat.  Why give that up to run a race that she may or may not win, when she can stay in a House seat that she will definitely win.

That's her best option, followed by running in the open election for governor. Running for Senate against a relatively popular incumbent in what's likely to be a mildly pro-Republican environment would really make no sense.

If Sandlin does run for higher office that will leave her seat as a good pick up opportunity for the Republicans in the House.  Sandlin was preceded by a Republican who resigned due to a manslaughter conviction from an auto accident.

Although I love Sandlin to death if it was a Thune v. Sandlin senate race. I'd vote Thune. Thune is conservative and I like him better.

I've been a little surprised by the lack of a good challenger here. Thune narrowly won 6 years ago after narrowly losing 6 years earlier. SD isn't that red a state and Thune is about as conservative a senator there is outside the south or upper Rockies. I recall one of his big campaign claims was swearing could keep the state's big airbase open even without the pull of being Minority Leader like Daschle, but sure enough it closed within a year of his election. Surely there's someone other than Sandlin on the Dem. bench who could give this guy a serious run?

The reason the elections were so close is because of the incumbent factor and also because South Dakota is a Republican state.  Anybody other than Herseth would have a very difficult time against Thune (and Herseth would have a hard time too).

Yeah, it's definitely red rather than purple. But SD still has willingly elected Democrats to the Senate and Congress for decades (and not particularly Blue Dog conservatives either). Johnson and Sandlin were first elected reletively recently, y'know. This tradition gave me hopes of a serious challenge to Thune next year, but it doesn't look likely. ):-(

What do you mean narrowly losing 6 years earlier. 6 years early Thune was reelected to the House. In 2002, 2 years prior to beating Daschle, he narrowly lost to Tim Johnson.

Yeah, that's what I meant. My bad.

He's totally safe.  That why Sandlin is going to run for Governor instead.