Talk Elections

Same as here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=94714.0), but for 2004; include both your prediction map and your confidence map.

The same as the real map except for Kerry winning Ohio.

()

For some reason I gave up on Florida about a week before the election, even though the polls showed Kerry more competitive than he was in Ohio. Polls showed Kerry losing Wisconsin by about 2-3%, but after seeing a rally of his I didn't see him losing it. I predicted he'd win Iowa due to his caucus win in January and him already being in the state so much. I predicted Ohio or bust.

()

()

John Kerry 99 evs
George Bush 439 evs

After the bin Laden tape, I thought Kerry would be lucky to get 150 electoral votes. I was very surprised all he would've needed was 20 electoral votes to win. And that wasn't me being a hack, I truly thought there would be no way Kerry could deal with bin Laden endorsement (that he wouldn't accept, but the right wing had a field day with). He put up a pretty damn good fight for somebody with the stack of cards he was given.

Bump.

Here was my map:

()

Confidence:

()

And yes that was my map. I was not being a hack or anything, I just expected that at the end Kerry would perform very badly.

I was pretty naive, but the nine year old me predicted this:

()

I didn't really pay close attention to the electoral map back then, but I would probably have picked all the states Gore won+NH+NC for Kerry. I wanted Kerry to win back in 2004, but I wasn't very politically active back then (I was only 12 years old).

How do I put a map on here? Anybody help lol. I picked every state right in 2004.

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php (https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php)

See also () on the top of each Forum page.

Good for you.

()

maybe this will post my map

I also want to point out that with 9/11 and the California recount election, I thought that Bush would only lose New York and California by 5.

Something like this:

()

IRL 2004 with Kerry winning OH.

You know that's one state that I never worried about in 2004 was Ohio. Alot of Republicans were concerned, but I knew that the Republicans could win it based on social issues.

http://()

This was my map I was very close in every state.

Alabama- Bush 55-44
Alaska- Bush 63-36
Arizona- Bush 52-47
Arkansas- Bush 53-46
California- Kerry 55-44
Colorado- Bush 52-47
Connecticut- Kerry 55-45
Delaware- Kerry 53-46
D.C.- Kerry 85-14
Florida- Bush 51-48
Georgia- Bush 55-44
Hawaii- Kerry 53-46
Idaho- Bush 64-35
Illinois- Kerry 55-44
Indiana- Bush 59-40
Iowa- Bush 51-49
Kansas- Bush 61-38
Kentucky- Bush 60-39
Louisiana- Bush 56-44
Maine- Kerry 52-47
Maryland- Kerry 51-48
Massachusetts- Kerry 64-35
Michigan- Kerry 52-48
Minnesota- Kerry 50-49
Mississippi- Bush 54-45
Missouri- Bush 52-47
Montana- Bush 60-39
Nebraska- Bush 64-35
Nevada- Bush 51-49
New Hampshire- Kerry 51-49
New Jersey- Kerry 54-46
New Mexico- Bush 52-48
New York- Kerry 52-47
North Carolina- Bush 56-44
North Dakota- Bush 60-40
Ohio- Bush 52-48
Oklahoma- Bush 67-33
Oregon- Kerry 54-46
Pennsylvania- Kerry 51-49
Rhode Island- Kerry 56-43
South Carolina- Bush 54-45
South Dakota- Bush 55-45
Tennessee- Bush 53-47
Texas- Bush 59-40
Utah- Bush 72-27
Vermont- Kerry 56-43
Virginia- Bush 53-47
Washington- Kerry 54-46
West Virginia- Bush 53-47
Wisconsin- Kerry 50-49
Wyoming- Bush 68-32

I thought Bush would win 50-49, but I picked every state right. Alot of the states I had as being closer than they really were.

()

Bush 300
Kerry 238

()

Good News: I only got 3 states wrong.
Bad News: They were 3 BIG States. (OH,FL,IA)

You thought Kerry would win FL?

I thought Florida Democrats would turn out in huge numbers after what happend in 2000

They would have if it was a southern democrat. I don't think democrats in general really liked Kerry that much. Also, Bush's brother had been pretty popular throughout his first term and FL leans GOP anyhow. Florida was back and forth until the GOP convention that year for the most part.

IA isn't big by any means.

No but it's important as it's only a point or 2 to the left of the country. That was a 50/50 state that year.