Talk Elections

According to CQ Politics (http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/media/votestudy2009/), the ladies from Maine are currently on track to have party unity scores below 50% for the 111th Congress.  Snowe is coming in at 44% party unity and Collins is at 49%.  The next Republican closest to them is Voinovich coming in at 65%.  Both of the Senators from Maine are also currently supporting the president's agenda 92% of the time.  Once again Voinovich has the next highest presidential support amongst Republicans at 83% with Gregg coming in at 82%.  For comparison, Specter (as a Democrat) currently has a party unity score of 49% and has supported the president 86% of the time.  Ben Nelson, the supposedly notorious Senate DINO, is at 56% party unity and 92% presidential support. 

I don't know exactly what votes resulted in these percentages but it seems to me that Collins and Snowe have essentially been giving the Democrats their "super-majority" more than 50% of the time.  I know the topic of party switching with regards to these two has been beaten to death but it seems to me that there must be an awful lot of pressure for them to jump ship if the Republicans continue down a track to losing more seats in 2010.  In fact I would wager than if the Republicans fair poorly in the Senate again in 2010 these two will be looking for bluer pastures to graze in.

Specter switched because he was going to lose a primary, not because he supported the president.

True, but if the GOP minority shrinks any further these two are going to lose power.  Right now they are fairly valuable swing votes.  But if the Democrats don't need them as much after 2010 then they may feel inclined to switch over to the party with the power since they vote with them most of the time anyway.

This is all speculation, of course, but IMO they have more to gain by switching after 2010 than they do by staying with the GOP.

Perhaps, especially if the Party keeps its current course.  However, I think Snowe is more likely than Collins.  Not only is Snowe a bit more liberal than Collins, but she has been much more critical of the Party than her counterpart.

With that being said the situations are a bit different.  In PA you had two strong factions of the GOP, the conservative faction which never really liked Specter, and the moderate one concentrated heavily in suburban Philly.   The moderate faction fled the party, leaving the state party much more conservative which sunk Specter.  In Maine, even if a bunch of moderates continue to flee the GOP you don't have the real conservative base of the party to sink either Collins or Snowe like they had in PA to sink Specter.  However, that doesn't mean they may not jump ship ot at least pull a Jeffords, but the Primaries won't be part of the decision process like it was with Specter.

Snowe and Collins have been active in the Maine GOP.  It would be weird for them to switch, especially for little reason.

I don't think they'll switch parties on their own free will; I think the party establishment will kick them out, but it doesn't really matter which party they run on, they are both extremely popular in Maine and will probably hold the seats until they retire or die.

No, they won't switch. If they were going to switch they would have done it by now. Presumably they don't care about getting a committee chairmanship or whatever Reid would throw at them. And there's no way they'd lose election in Maine. The Maine GOP still tolerates moderates, and if Collins (the less popular of the Maine women) can't be unseated in the worst possible conditions for a Republican since 1974, she's not going anywhere.

Snowe is getting older, and has been a Republican all her life, as has her husband who is a former governor.

Collins basically is an old-fashioned party boss, and micromanages everything. Neither is likely to be in trouble, though if one were, it would be ironically the more popular Snow who has not managed things anywhere near as much. Collins who is obessed with the prospect, is paradoxically much betterprepared.

My girlfriends are not leaving, please quit giving me a heart attack like that :)

They are the MAine GOP. Scores of STate Reps and States SEnators have come up through the campaigns and staff of either Snowe or Collins or both. If the GOP wins the Governorship or a House seat by some slim chance or whatever they will have had work for at least one of the two Maine ladies on there resume. For them to switch it would mean abandoning a state organization they control almost entirely for little or no gain nationally. I think that both these ladies have always been more focused on there states then anything. \

What path is the GOP on that leads them to destruction. I hardly think the same National organization that recruited Mark Kirk, Rob Simmons, Charlie Crist, and tried like hell for Mike Castle and George Pataki is going to "drive them out". Certainly the base can be a threat but they have little reach accross the Hudson.

Also if the Dems won't need them then they likely will have little rewards for switching. If they were going to switch the would have done it after 2002 when we were at 51 or when we were at 41 and gone with Specter. Its not going to happen.

Doubtful

I highly doubt that either will ever switch parties.

I do have to question how long they'll keep running for reelection, though, especially as the GOP goes further and further away from them.

The only way I see a switch would be for them to feel so alienated from the party as to feel the need to go Independent.

Who they would caucus with would be anyone's guess.

In Maine?  Hardly.  Those two are as conservative as you're ever going to get in New England.  Centrist and left leaning Republicans are a much larger part of the Republican base in New England because the Democrats in those states are a stone's throw from being complete Commies.

The Dems aren't a stones throw from commies, and the moderates and liberal leaning Republicans aren't a larger part of the GOP base in New England because of that.  They are a bigger part of the GOP because they are the only ones that can get elected in New England.  Even with that the GOP in getting pummeled on the state level as well in New England as they are losing sttae house and senate seats in droves.

The Maine GOP kicking out Snowe or Collins would be like the Nevada Democrats kicking out Harry Reid. Or, back in the day, the New York GOP kicking out Al D'Amato.

You don't know anything about politics in New England, do you?

Of course he doesn't which is why he made such a silly post.

Let me clarify, my friends. I didn't mean that the Maine GOP would kick Snowe and Collins out. I meant that since the national party is moving so far to the right, it will be hard for them to identify with their party and they'll probably either become Independents or the national party will demonize and label them as RINOs (which they already do) so much that they may possible jump ships and join the Democrats, but I think the first scenario is more likely than the latter. Clearly New England Republicans are much more moderate than Republicans elsewhere, and I don't think the mainstream GOP understands that. If the Republicans want to have a presence and a voice in New England, they're going to have to swallow their pride and tolerate the idea of allowing moderates in their party, otherwise the Democrats will completely dominate New England like they already do - Snowe and Collins are the only "Republican" U.S. Senators from New England, there are absolutely no Republicans serving in the U.S. House of Representatives, and Democrats control all the state legislatures and statewide executive elected offices in New England. The only bright spot for Republicans is the Governorships in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Vermont, where these three Governors (M. Jodi Rell, Don Carcieri and Jim Douglas) are also moderates/RINOs/whatever the mainstream party labels them as.

Isn't it funny, though, how these moderate/RINOs (Snowe, Collins, Rell, etc.) are considerably more popular among their constituents than most conservative Republicans, or the "real" Republicans if you will? :P

Judd Gregg

There are really two New Englands, both moving towards the Democrats, but both are for different reasons.

In Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and parts of Maine, the white working class never re-aligned to the GOP. As a result, the GOP has remained the party of wealthy suburbanites, even as those voters have moved massively to the left on social issues. At the same time, most genuine social conservatives are still members of the Democratic party, at least at the state level. Its worth noting that the Democratic Legislative Leadership was far more opposed to Gay Marriage in Massachusetts than the Republican leadership, and until the time of Mitt Romney, the Republicans were arguably the more socially liberal party during the early 1990s.
In Rhode Island the same occurs, and it is catholic democrats who are blocking Gay Marriage. as a result, there is a much weaker Conservative base in the GOP to threaten moderates.

On the flip-side, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Southern Maine are simply either made up of those liberal suburbanites with only minor working class ethnic enclaves to balance them, or are rapidly being taken over by them. As those suburbanites shift, so do those states.

Collins and Snowe have benefited in Maine by the fact that they have close cultural and geographical support bases. Snowe is big on her working-class, Greek background, while Collins focuses on Franco-Americans, and the Democrats have been stupid enough to consistently run wealthy WASPs against them.

He's retiring so I forgot him lol and I figure Hodes will win his seat anyways.. but thanks ;)