Talk Elections

If Obama's approval will be between 45-50 pc, the unemployment rate hits the 11 pc, the stimulus,which is unpopular, is the n°1 issue, COULD THE GOP win the majority in the senate or at least win seats?

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Schumer wins in NY but Pataki won agains Gillibrand

Composition of the senate:
Dems -51
GOP - 47
I- 2

Republicans win in CO, DE, IL and pull off a huge surprise in WI

Democrats pick up MO

Too early, ask again in a few months.

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Well it's just a scenario.
IMO if Obama and the democratic congress aren't successfull, the GOP could win back the senate in 2012.It will be really likely for the GOP to gain seats.

How old are you?

16. Why?

who are they running in WI anyway?


we're still waiting for formal challengers to emerge in several states, but I think an overly cautious prediction as of now might be for the GOP to pick up something like CT or IL, and for the Democrats to pick up MO and either NH or OH.

to lose, what, 11 seats and gain 0 in a year where the Democrats are largely on the offensive is just ridiculous, that's why he asked.  How many seats is the GOP even targeting in the most fortunate of scenarios?

obviously 2012 could be far more brutal than 2010 for the Democrats, considering the number of potentially vulnerable Democrats up for reelection. 

41-45, but it's still early.

What about KY?

How would Russell Feingold lose in 2010 considering his approval ratings?

And all these predictions assume that the Republican party doesn't die like the Whigs.

The assumption that the Republican Party will die like the Whigs is as bad as Elvis Republican thinking we can regain the Senate in 2010. The Whigs were a National Party evenly split between an Abolitionist northern wing and pro-slavery southern wing. The GOP divide is not so even, its more like a 70-30 split between conservatives and moderates and its becoming less and less national. A better comparison would be the Federalists, I don't know who keeps coming up with the Whig comparison, but they need there head examined.

The GOP will in the best case scenario have about 41-44 seats. Right now I see us losing MO; narrowly holding NC, KY, and LA; narrowly winning CT and narrowly losing in PA and ILL. I see OH and NH as toss-ups. I also see seats in NV, and CO as being potentially competative provided we find a candidate or the guy we got turns out to be a really good candidate. Lastly I see us easily holding open seats in FL and KS.

A Republican is not winning statewide in New York(unless its against David Paterson) and Toomey is not winning in PA first of all.  Second, a Republican is not winning Illinois unless they are running against Roland Burris.  Same with Delaware unless Castle runs(he isnt raising much money). 

I never said 2010 I said 2012 or maybe 2014 ... or never.2010 is IMPOSSIBLE my map was the best map possible for the gop the worst is the gop losing 5-6 seats ...

I have no idea, its just a weird inkling two years out :P, Feingold never wins by huge margins and we could be looking at a George Allen type situation

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Democrat pick-ups in MO, OH, KY (and hold both NY seats, the special election seat would be D40% on the map)
Republican pick-up in CT

Delaware made on the assumption that Castle doesn't run

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My Predcitions: GOP net gain of 1

MIke Castle wins the Delaware seat.
Ryan Frazier is nominated and defeats Bennett by an extremely close margin.
Arkansas is the upset seat.

Dems gain MIssouri
Dems gain New Hampshire, which completes their dominance on the NH political landscape. It's hard to imagine such a political seismic shift than the one going on in NH. Just in 2002, the GOP held every statewide office. Just wow.

Ohio and North Carolina will be the closest seats followed by Louisiana, Illinois, and hopefully Nevada to force Reid to spend huge $$$.
All this talk about Connecticut and New York is wishful thinking.

Not likely. They could get back to 45 or more, but actually regaining Congress will not happen until at least 2012.

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30%'s indicate takeovers of any margin
40% indicates narrow holds
50% Strong but not Solid Holds
60% and up indicate Solid Holds

Dems narrowly hold CO, NV, PA, and ILL. GOP narrowly hold NH, OH, NC, KY, and LA. Dem pick up MO by 15 points and GOP picks up CT by less then 5%. GOP holds KBH's seat special but the margin isn't as solid same for the Dems in DE. Everything else is safe/solid.

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Something like this.

Dem pickups: MO, KY, OH, NH
Rep pickups: DE

Democrats: 61
Republicans: 37
Independents: 2

I love how confident (and accurate) everyone is that Missouri is gonna flip seats :) yay red white and blue!

(Haven't slept all night. Apologize for the loopiness, or something like that).

If the Republicans even take back a single house of Congress by 2012, its because God himself really is a Republican.....AND our country has been damaged beyond repair and is taking water.

I wouldn't say that, I would say Young people won't turn out as much as they did in 2008 perhaps being disillusioned by the bad economy and the ongoing war in Afghanistan and military involvment in Iran.  Under 35 year olds will have been disillusioned, not by any act by GOD, persay.

I would say Senate of course would be the most likely to fall with the most being Dems being from blue-collar republican areas like Casey, McCaskill, Webb and Tester.

I am personally not a fan of Dems like Casey and Specter who come from those areas.  If at all it means a primary would mean spending more money than it has to, then do it. We need people like Joe Sestak to stand up to DINO like Specter and Casey.

Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.



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LOL that's extremely wishful thinking. Democrats winning Kansas and Connecticut?  Wow

Okay...
The economy is good enough that Democrats somehow manage to win in Kansas, Arizona, and Florida, but not good enough to win Deleware? Seriously...Terrible map.

Of course you think that "Bias Republican"

The maps of NCYankee and KyleGordon seem to forget that DC is not a state.

LoL you know you have so many things to point out on our maps but no, you say "NCYankee and KyleGordon seem to forget that DC is not a state"

Why don't you say something useful for once instead of accusing me of being biased.
Your map doesn't make sense. How will a Democrat win in Kansas? How will a Democrat win in Florida when Crist is leading by like, 30 points? How will John McCain, who beat the most famous Democrat in Arizona by 9 points, be unseated?

That too, for example, the fact that you have the Democrats winning Kansas and Arizona. But what you two have for DC is the most obvious mistake.

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OK then, here's another map, but this is if John mccain retires or dies.

Ehh, that's still be Democrat-friendly.
I think we'll be able to hold on to Kentucky. I don't think Bunning will make it out of the primaries. Then, I think we will win New Hampshire, Ohio, or Pennyslvania. At least one of those 3. I consider Connecticut "Lean GOP" for now. Judging by the new California poll, Republicans might be able to pick up California, too.

when I said "you know you have so many things to point out on our maps" i meant your party does not the democrats.

Hold on to your pants, the campaign hasn't even started there. :)

NO. Just no. Any GOP candidate with half a shot at winning anything statewide is scrambling to enter the GOP primary for Governor in hopes of holding Arnold's seat.

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Other possible flips would be Connecticut (though I think Dodd's problems will be behind him at election time), Louisiana (Vitter is weak, Melancon has a shot to beat him), North Carolina (Burr is unremarkable), and Delaware (if Castle runs). I'm least confident that Ohio will flip, but fairly positive on Missouri (appears to be the better candidate) and Kentucky (Bunning. Enough said.) It'll be close in NH, but I think that it'll still flip.

And if Grassley (Iowa) and McCain (Arizona) retire, those are good shots at a flip.
If Hutchison (Texas) leaves early, the Dems have a longshot there too, if Bill White or John Sharp is the nominee.

Basic confidence map:
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I think the GOP takes Connecticut, and Delaware if Castle runs, while the Democrats take Missouri, and Kentucky if Bunning wins.

Come on ben, Louisiana a tossup?  Vitter is way ahead in the polls.

For the record my predictions:

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Against Melancon?

Wow.  Care to explain Florida?  Kansas?  Arizona?  Delaware?  DC?

Um, yeah:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Louisiana_721.pdf

My bad, I hadn't seen that poll.  I'd put Louisiana in the Lean Republican category, then.

You should adjust IL. It's an open seat since Burris is not running for reelection.

Woops, didn't catch that.  Thanks.

Dream scenario:

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That is assuming that Castle doesn't run.  (Illinois is a pure toss-up for me)
Pickups:
For Democrats:  Missouri
For Republicans:  Connecticut, Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania

I'd say the most likely outcome is something between a +1 Republican gain and a +2 Democratic gain.

I think a third Democratic wave is unlikely, but not impossible. A Republican wave could theoretically give them a 4-seat net gain, but I think that's stretching things a bit.

This is obviously *VERY* speculative. Still, looking ahead, I'd imagine a likely outcome would be Democratic pickups in MO, NH, and either OH or KY (+3), with Republicans picking up Delaware (but only if Mike Castle runs) and one between NV, CT, and CO.

I think NV, CT, and CO all lean Dem at the moment. Well, Chris Dodd is behind, but his numbers have improved and my guess is that he'll get a scare, but will be the narrow victor. Reid's quite unpopular in Nevada, but Republicans can't seem to get their act together, and Reid has LOTS of money. If Dean Heller runs and is well-funded, they could pull an upset, but they're the underdogs. I do think the CO race is being overlooked a bit - if the Republicans nominate Ryan Frazier than at least at first glance he seems to be a potentially strong candidate, and Bennet is a total unknown.

As for other Dem-leaning seats? I suspect Vitter will narrowly hold on in Louisiana. North Carolina is a more likely pickup for the Dems, but I'd say it's only a second-tier opportunity right now and will depend somewhat on recruitment and the national mood.

Agree, but I think Democrats will hold onto Nevada easily since the GOP doesn't really have much of a bench out there anymore after 2008 and knocking off the Senate Majority Leader with a nobody is quite a stretch, especially in a battleground state that leans blue after 2008. I'd say Illinois leans Democratic at the moment as well because, well, it's Illinois and I don't even know if Mark Kirk will survive the GOP primary, especially since he's a Chicago/moderate RINO, so if a more conservative right-wing Republican steps up and challenges him, who knows what will happen?

And if Louisiana reelects David Vitter against Charlie Melancon (I'll play to the Republicans' level and call him a DINO) despite Vitter's prostitution scandal, I'll officially certify it as the most idiotic and hypocritical not to mention least respectable state in the nation, especially since so many people down there are all bent up on family values ya know.

To the ones who were attacking KyleGordon2016 for his map, maybe he thought Kathleen Sebelius may get tired of being Secretary of HHS and would opt to run for the U.S. Senate seat there instead, same with Janet Napolitano? I agree though - without Sebelius there's no way we'll pick up Kansas, but Arizona may be a surprise especially if that right-wing nut Chris Simcox or whoever from the Minute Maid or whatever runs and bloodies up the Maverick because of his pro-amnesty position. Who knows what will happen.

And as for the Republicans claiming Roy BLUNT will win the Missouri Senate seat over Robin CARNAHAN, there are two words for that: LOSER DENIAL (but, to be more PC, wishful thinking). lol

It's wishful thinking to say that Carnahan is an absolute lock against Blunt, even though he has raised more money than her and the polls are very tight. ::)

Plus, the Dems' popularity is going down.  Anything is possible in '10

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Hi, first post here, but Ive been reading the site for years.
Heres how I think it will turn out...

Im new to making these maps, but I think the GOP will have a decent year, after all, where can they go other than up.

California - I imagine I'll get the most resistance to this, but I think that Boxer is a perenially weak candidate that only needs the right challenger to defeat her.  Her mistakes this year will become fodder during a campaign.  This is the hopeful seat.

Colorado - There are some decent challengers and Bennett is an unelected and unknown quantity.

Delaware - Assuming Castle runs...if not, the dem wins.

Pennsylvania - Toomey is stronger than people think.  Ive followed his career for a number of years and he is not to be underestimated.  The early polls are looking good and Specter will be knocked off, whether by primary or by Toomey.

Connecticut - Dodd, enough said.

Missouri - Carnahan surely takes this one.

*facepalm*

That's funny, but you need the Patrick Stewart facepalm image to spice it up!...Nice to meet you.  Im always hopeful and would love to side with you and hope I get the chance, but the Carnahan name is fairly strong (except in 2002, when the trend was strong republican in the senate races).  I mean a dead Carnahan beat Ashcroft.  Plus, Roy Blunt just reeks of the Bush years (personal opinion of course).

I'm not referring to that at all.  In fact, Carnahan has a good chance at winning.  I am referring to Nevada and California.  How can you expect Fiorina to beat Boxer, and which Republican can beat Harry Reid?

Sorry if the facepalm was mean, I am just in bad mood.

California, like I mentioned, is totally hopeful and we still dont know if a candidate will surprise us.  I saw a recent poll showing Fiorina close and thus far, Boxer has only ran against men (Herschenshon, Fong, Jones(I think thats his name)).  Plus it helps Fiorina that shes a bit of a RINO on a lot of issues, issues that in California can sometimes make or break a GOP candidate.  I think shes pro choice and pro gay marriage or at least civil unions. 

In Nevada, I think Heller can beat Reid and remember in 2006 we had no-name democrats winning seats left and right (professors, doctors, et. al.)  If there is a charismatic newbie, that has maybe a little government experience, they could come out ahead.

No I wasnt offended by the facepalm at all.  I just love the Patrick Stewart facepalm image.

Regarding California:  If Fiorina is shown as competitive late into the election, Boxer will DESTROY her.  You do remember what she did to Bruce Herschensohn, right?

Regarding Nevada:  Heller is unlikely to run, since he wants to replace Gibbons in the primary. (God bless him)

Yes, I remember, its hopeful anyways.

Yes, please if Heller can replace that stooge Gibbons, im all for that too.

Delaware seems like the mostly likely gain for the GOP. Colorado is very worrisome as well.

And, even though a lot of Democrats and liberals seem to be shrugging off Illinois, I must say that Kirk frightens me.

I voted 41-45.

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I think CO is the most to go, Giannoulias will be find. Once IL find out he is a conservative republican, military buildup and tax cuts, but pragmatic on energy conservation, it will be a different story.

That's my map, but make MO Dem. 

PA- Toomey is definitely stronger than people think, BUT PA is just not that conservative.  He'll face Joe Sestak who will be stronger than Specter.

As for the IL senate, I think the 2016 olympics will play a part in who will be getting elected to that seat.  I think Chicago will get the olympics and Giannoulius will play an active part in supporting that olympics. Also, I don't believe PA and IL and NV will go republican unless Dems loses seat. As far as now, I think Dems will gain seats.

Dunno how to post maps so i will put it in this form:

Dems - MO

Reps - tbd

preface - i will never again definitively state anything in regards to gaming so to speak after i predicted that the 2008 Indians would be in the WS and that the 2009 cavs would be in the finals.  Both teams were the best i had ever seen in my life but there are many things that can derail a supposed sure thing.

California -  pipe dream Safe DEM hold no explanation needed

Colorado - this is the hardest race to predict.  Bennett seems to be a fundraising machine and the state is turning blue(red for this site.) If Ryan Frazier is the nominee and he is a capable campaigner this will be an interesting race.  Frazier = toss-up if not DEM hold

Connecticut - i think the best thing to happen to dodd reelection campaign was his diagnosis of prostate cancer.  In this country surviving cancer is like saving a baby from a fire. If yo do your golden.  Also, i think his numbers bottomed out and will only go up.  This along with the nature of CT will allow him to squeak by.  DEM Hold

Delware - this is a pipe dream now in my opinion.  Castle clearly the only rep who stands a chance has not raised any money what so ever.  With out a decent cash flow he would have a tough time to begin with.  Let alone this leads me to believe that he is not running.  If he is not running safe Dem.  DEM hold

Florida - Dem pipe dream unless Christ is found in bed with his a wife and a dude.  REP Hold

Illinois -  Kirk is a formidable challenger but this is the one race i seem to know about more than any other.  From what i have gather is that kirk is a great congressman for his constituent services and his family connection.  His family is very well respected in the area that encompasses the 10th district and his grandmother seems to have major political sway.  I don't know how this translates.  Also, i believe that obama will be the key factor here. If Alexi is down in the polls or close he will come in and save him.  Late ad cut for Alexi will put him over the top.  Plus kirk seems to be the kind of person who doesn't know how to avoid scandal. the lead story tonight on wgn was about kirks event tweets landing him in hot water.  Slight DEM hold

Kentucky-  With bunnings' retirement this is went from a pick up to a sure rep hold.  REP Hold

Louisiana - Vitter should be vulnerable but the diaper fetish man will be safe.  Reps would rather have a person like them than actually vote a scandalous figure out.  Its similar to dodd in CT.  Both should be gone but partisanship will allow them to survive.  REP hold

Missouri - This race seems to be a race between a popular member of a popular family verse the only likable member of an unlikable family.  The state may tilt rep but dynamics of the race lean Dem.  Most of my knowledge about this race comes from this site and other political sites but their is one consistant thing that any one with out bias has given Robin the edge.  So i defer to that.  DEM takeover

Nevada - Most powerful senator verse third tier oppt. equals no chance. Unless a candidate like las Vegas mayor switches parties to run against Reid there is no chance.  For those who use daschle as an example as why Reid could be taken down remember two things.  Daschle was in a must redder(bluer for this site) state and ran against a thune who had barely lost the previous cycle and had great name rec. and fundraising abilities. No one had presented these abilities thus far.  DEM hold.

New Hamp. - This is the truest of toss up right now.  Hodes has the advantage because of the trend of the state and the fact that he will be running with lynch who will give him coattails.  Also it seems lynch had a grudge against ayotte and will be campaign against her.  However we don't how well of campaigner she will be.  It seems to me hodes is a good campaigner so ayotte will have to be that much better.  But until the race shapes up its still a toss up.  TOSS-UP

North Carolina - this should have been Roy coopers to win.  When he declined it made me think that he know something we don't.  That lead me to believe that either he doesn't want run for federal office or he saw that this cycle would be anti-dem.  Either way unless cunningham gets into this race i don't see the Dem's winning.  REP hold

Pennsylvania - This race is the one were i have no idea about.  The Dem nature of the state and toomey radical conservatism leads me to believe that specter will survive.  However, a bloody primary and a backlash against obama could lead to unknown results.  Still specter is the favorite and toomey is still a out work congressman who is best known for his support of losing candidates.  DEM hold

Ohio -  I would like to believe that portman would be hung by his disastrous heading of the bush finicials.  However, Americans are now for two things short mememory and over reactions.  That being said in a neutral climate Ohio is lean rep so portman aided by a bloody primary(get out of the race brunner and save us the SOS seat) will win in a close race. REP hold.

Any race not listed here is a pipe dream for the opposition or would take a macca moment.  If one of these two things occur then these rating will change but until then.  D+1

I got Dems +1 with New Hamsphire.

Missouri is leaning towards the dems but I think New Hamsphire is more likely to flip than Missouri is. 

Why do people think the Dems will have a POSITIVE Net Gain? 2010 will be a slight bounce back for the GOP. I predict +2 or 3 to the GOP.

CAuse so many of our guys decided to retire especially in swing states, making our job harder and theres easier.

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This is what I think will happen; worst case scenario for the Dems could see the loss (compared to my map) of CT, PA, NH, MO, OH, IL, CO and maybe an upset or two, which would still leave the GOP 2-3 short of a majority (since a 50-50 tie would still favor the Dems).

With the map I made the Dems would have 62 or 63 seats (I can't call Ohio either way right now) which would leave Mary Landrieu or Tom Carper as the 60th most liberal vote (according to Voteview's rankings of the 110th Senate)...sounds good to me.

We'll pick up six seats if Castle runs (IL, CT, DE, PA, CO, and NV).

The only seat I think we have a real shot at losing in Missouri.  To have a long term incumbent struggling the way Bond is suggests his constituents don't like him that much.

CO, CT, and DE are true tossups as far as PA, NV, IL I don't see GOP winning.

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Democrats 63

Republicans 37

Very close in New Hampshire, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado and Ohio

Proportionally there are a lot more Republicans up for reelection than Democrats. Since there are almost 60 Democratic senators and exactly 40 Republican ones, the fact that the number of currently held seats up for reelection is almost 50-50 is a major advantage for the Democratic party(it'll be advantage GOP using this logic in 2012 and 2014).

Of course 06' was supposed to be an oppurtunity for the GOP to really bury the Democratic party and look how that turned out. Using my 15 months away from the election logic I say the GOP will pick up 2 seats when it's all said and done, but it won't be in states that are traditionally Democratic.

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Democrats: 59 (+1)
Republicans: 39 (-1)
Independents: 2 (-)

I don't think a major party has ever not made gains in 3 straight cycles

The Dems are optimistic because this is the third election cycle where there are major retirements.  TN was in 2006, 2008 was NM and VA, and now this election cycle. I think +2 Dem gains are more realistic, but I like the Dems chances.

Very early prediction:

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CO, NV, OH, KY, NH, DE, CT, NC, PA would be my races to watch

GOP seats:

Missouri will go democratic

Ohio will go democratic

Kentucky is a tossup, the GOP lucked out when Bunning decided to retire so they have a good chance of keeping the seat, but it will still be close especially if Mongiardo gets nominated

Florida would have been quite a race if Crist had decided not to run, but since he is entering the race he will win, no question about it

The GOP got lucky in New Hampshire because Kelly Ayotte is running, this one will be a close one, but i'm guessing since the dems have taken both house seats, the governors seat, a senate seat, the state legislature, and the state went to Obama by 10 points last year, the dems have a good shot of taking this one too

In Louisiana, David Vitter will more than likely keep his seat. Even though he is a total hypocrite and an admitted felon (busted for prostitution, while running on family values) Louisiana seems to like their elected officials that way. The state is trending more and more red every election cycle, so he is probably safe unless the dems can field a top tier centrist candidate (Charlie Melancon or Mitch Landrieu)

North Carolina could very well go democratic. Richard Burr is a one-term senator in the famous cursed seat. It has flipped in each of the past five elections. To make it worse, in 2008 he watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan at the same time as Beverly Perdue was elected governor and Barack Obama won the state, plus he is not nearly as popular as Dole was when she ran. If the dems can field a good candidate, then they have a great chance of taking this seat, fortunatly for Burr they havent found one.

Texas has been mentioned because Rick Perry and Kay Baily Hutchinson will have a bloody primary for TX governor (even though i'm a dem, I will vote for Hutchinson in the primary because Perry is idiotic and embarrassing). Hutchinson will probably win the primary, setting up a special election. If that happens the only hope that dems have of winning the seat is if Houston mayor Bill White runs, but they will probably keep the seat anyway.

Dem seats:

Chris Dodd is in trouble, he is shown in polls to be heavily trailing Rob Simmons, and to make matters worse he has been diagnosed with cancer. If he runs, he might be able to keep his seat anyway because he can raise a lot of money and Connecticut is a very blue state. If he retires (which is what he should do), the Dems will keep the seat with a decent candidate. If not, the GOP has a great chance of getting this seat.

Delaware is a very blue state and Biden's son will be running for his father's old seat. Mike Castle could run for his congressional seat, he could run for the senate seat, or he could retire. He is 70 years old and he isn't raising much money, but if he runs it will be a close rase.

Roland Burris is retiring and is now a place filler for Obama's seat. Moderate republican Mark Kirk is running, but the dems will keep the seat because it's such a blue state.

Arlen Spector will run for re-election as a democrat and win the primary and the general

The GOP could win Bennet's seat in Colorado, but no one worth anything is running, so he will probably keep his seat

There have been rumors that the GOP is gunning for Harry Reid's seat, they won't get it

Dems:63
GOP:37

Ryan Frazier is worth nothing? Lolz

not really, a former congressman and former speaker of the Colorado house would beat an Aurora city councilman in a primary, plus he's barely 30, way too young for a senate seat. Not to mention running a black republican would help more in a state that actually had black people in it.

Dems did it in both houses in 1930,1932,1934,1936, and on a smaller scale in 1986,1988, and 1990

I wonder how likely it is that both parties stay where they are in 2010 (in other words, any gains made by the one party will be canceled out by the gains of the other party).

Seems like a reasonable possibility.

Indeed--I wondered about that possibility because on the one side we have people who think that the Democrats will make gains, and on the other side we have people who predict that the Republicans will make gains. With that in mind, surely there is a chance that each party will cancel out the gains made by the other party, and thus the senate stays in favor of the Democrats 60-40, special elections/appointments aside.

I predict that the dems will make senate gains, but the GOP will make house gains

Democratic Seats.
Democrats will hold on to.
AR- Lincoln-D
CA- Boxer-D
CO- Bennet-D wins a full first term.
DE- if Castle does not run.- Beau Biden-D
HI- Inouye-D
IL- Giannoulias-D
IN-Bayh-D
MD- Mikulski-D
NV- Reid-D
NYA/B- Schumer and Gillibrand.
ND- Dorgan-D
OR- Wyden-D
VT- Leahy-D
WA- Murray-D
WI- Feingold-D
Democrats are likely to lose
CT- Dodd is trailing Simmons- if Dodd steps aside- Democratic retention.
DE- if Castle runs- Tossup.
PA- it depends on how the Democratic primary turnsout.
Republican seats.
Republicans will hold onto
AL- Shelby-R
AK- Murkowski-R
AZ- McCain-R
FL- Crist-R
GA- Isakson-R
ID- Crapo-R
IA- Grassley-R
KS- Moran/Tiahrt-R
KY- Grayson-R- by a narrow margin.
LA- Vitter-R
NC- Burr-R by a narrow margin.
OK- Coburn-R
SC- DeMint-R
SD- Thune-R
TX- Republicans win in Special Election.
UT- Bennett-R

Republicans will lose
MO- Carnahan-D
NH- Hodes-D
OH- Fisher/Brunner-D

KY and NC will be the wave US Senate Elections.

NC will be the biggest shocker race.

He was talking about gains period.  Not net gains.  Republicans have not made gains period since 2004 in the Senate; in 2006, no republican gains whatsoever in BOTH houses (a first); in 2008, no republican gains whatsoever except in the house.  So if the Republicans fail to make any gains period, this will be the first time in history that a major party has successfully defended ALL of its seats for the entire senate election cycle.

You left out when considering NC that Perdue has a 25% approval rating. Former Governor Easley has a grand Jury practially waiting for him in Raliegh. There have also been a wave of other scandals in this state from several Dems over the last 6 years. Obama is now in Negative territory in Approvals here as well. Burr is not as weak as many people claim he is.

What an ass. Colorado has both state houses led by African-Americans, and voted Obama, even hosting the convention. They are not afraid of electing black Americans to positions of power.

Many things can of course change

AL: Safe R
AK: Safe R
AZ: Safe R
AR: Safe D
CA: Safe D
CO: Tossup
CT: Lean R
DE: Lean D
FL: Safe R
GA: Safe R
HI: Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Lean D
IN: Safe D
IO: Safe R
KS: Lean R
LA: Tossup
MD: Safe D
MO: Lean D
NV: Lean D
NH: Tossup
NY: Safe D
NY2: Lean D
NC: Tossup
ND: Safe D
OK: Lean D
PA: Lean D
SC: Safe R
UT: Safe R
VT: Safe D
WA: Safe D
WI: Safe D

It has nothing to do with me being an ass, the GOP runs black republicans because they feel that they will have more appeal than just another old white guy (Ever wonder why Mike Steele is head of the RNC, quite a step up from a former Lt Gov wouldn't you say). I never said anything about Colorado disliking the notion of having minorities as elected officials (they also had a Hispanic senator). I'm simply stating that the appeal to make more blacks vote republican in a republicn primary and general election would work better in a state like Maryland (29 % black), Michigan (14%), New York (17%), Florida (16%), or Georgia (30%), as opposed to Colorado which is 4% black

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html

New prediction:

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GOP +6

The GOP is likely to gain 1 to 3 seats in the best case scenario, I doubt that map is likely.

With the exception of 1986,1990,1996 and 2006 and 2008- 1 or 2 Democratic Incumbents lost re-election.
1988- Jack Melcher(MT), 1992- Fowler(GA),and Sanford (NC), 1994- Wofford(PA),and Sasser(TN), 1998 - Mosely Braun (IL), 2000 - Robb (VA). 2002  Cleland -GA ,Carnahan-MO, and 2004- Daschle- SD.

Chris Dodd- CT will probally be the only Democratic Incumbent that loses his seat but it will be a narrow margin like the Daschle/Thune race.  All other vulnerable or so called vulnerable Democratic incumbents- Lincoln-AR,Boxer-CA, Bennett-CO, Reid-NV,Gillibrand-NY,Dorgan-ND if Hoevan runs, Specter/Sestak-PA, Murray-WA and Feingold-WI will get re-elected.

That leaves us DE and IL.
DE becomes a Tossup if Castle runs- other than that - Safe Democratic.
IL is going to be like the 1996 NJ US Senate Race between Bob Torricelli and Dick Zimmer- an open seat Senate Race to replace Bill Bradley. It was the most closely watched and expensive US Senate Race in history- Despite all of that Torrecelli won by a 10point margin.

On the GOP side. The open seats in MO,OH,and NH and possibly KY are like the 2008 US Senate Races in VA,NM,and CO- Strong Democratic Candidates vs Weak GOP Candidates.

FL is Republican because of Charlie Crist.  KS is a Republican State- Had Sebelius ran it would have been a Tossup at Best. 

Regarding Vulnerable GOP incumbents- NC- Burr- It is a Curse Seat- Obama's narrow victory, Hagan's upset victory over Dole- Burr is a first term who won in 2004 because of GWBush's coattails.

The biggest upset will be Vitter-LA losing.

DWTL, why would Dorgan lose now?  He survived 2004, and Hoeven is not going to run against him; who'll take him out?

To counter Kalwejt, here are my predictions

AL: Safe R
AK: Safe R
AZ: Safe R
AR: Likely D
CA: Likely D
CO: Tossup
CT: Tossup
DE: Safe D, if Castle runs: Lean R
FL: Safe R
GA: Safe R
HI: Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Lean D
IN: Safe D
IA: Safe R (if Grassley runs)
KS: Safe R
KY: Lean R
LA: Likely R
MD: Safe D
MO: Tossup
NV: Tossup
NH: Tossup
NY: Safe D
NY2: Likely D
NC: Likely R
ND: Likely D
OK: Safe R
PA: Tossup
SC: Safe R
UT: Safe R
VT: Safe D
WA: Safe D
WI: Safe D

Daschle lost in 2004 because of George W. Bush's coattails- Bush carried SD by a 20 point margin and Daschle was running against John Thune- who was a popular former At Large US House Member of South Dakota who just narrowly lost the race for US Senate in 2002 against Tim Johnson.
Dorgan won in 2004 with a sacrificial lamb GOP challenger. Regarding the 2010 race against Hoeven. Neither Hoeven nor Dorgan have any Presidential coattails like Thune had in 2004.

That makes no sense.

Since polls have changed, I'll make another guess on the map...

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Some thoughts:
Deleware- Depends on whether or not Castle runs. A close election, though
Nevada- Republicans will pull it together and nominate someone to defeat the unpopular Reid
North Dakota- Hoeven will end up running, and the results will be similar to SD in `04
Arkanas- Could potentially become competitive, if the Republicans find a good candidate
Illinois- Polls will show this close for a while, but it will come home to the Democrats in the end
New York- Pataki could beat Gillibrand, he really could. That will be a fun race to watch
Pennyslvania- There will be a bitter Democratic primary, but in the end, Specter will go on to barely defeat Toomey, in another close race.

Overall, Democrats really lucked out that they don't have as many seats to defend as the Republicans. If Senate elections were every 4 years instead of 2, and the `06 class was up for re-election, Republicans would probably come close to taking a majority in the Senate.

In order for the Congressional republicans to win states like PA, ND, and NV they will have to win the congressional ballot test, and so far they have come even with the Dems, not ahead.

I don't prefer Reid, as majority leader, I think he is more of negotiator rather than a leader, a boring one at that.  But Sardova, I don't believe will have the coattails to bring the Congressional republicans along to defeat Reid as of yet.

I think the Republicans have a much better chance of picking up NV-02 than anything else.

Safe Republican.
AL- Shelby-R
AK- Murkowski-R
AZ- McCain-R
FL-OPEN-(Martinez-R)- Crist-R
GA- Isakson-R
ID- Crapo-R
IA- Grassley-R
KS-OPEN-(Brownback-R)- Moran-R
OK- Coburn-R
SC- DeMint-R
SD- Thune-R
UT- Bennett-R
Safe Democratic.
AR- Lincoln-D- will end up facing weak GOP opposition.
CA- Boxer-D ends up winning by landslide margin- despite opposition from Carly Fiorina.
DE- (OPEN-Kaufman-D)-Biden-D- Mike Castle is not going to run.
HI- Inouye-D
IN- Bayh-D
MD- Mikulski-D
NY- Schumer-D
NY- Gillibrand-D- Gillibrand will get a free pass plus- Schumer's coattails will help Gillibrand win.
ND- Dorgan-D- Hoeven is less likely to run.
OR- Wyden-D
VT- Leahy-D
Vulnerable/Republican Favored Seats.
KY-(OPEN-Bunning-R)- KY will be close/Tossup- through out the campaign. Grayson will end up winning.
LA-(Vitter-R)-
NC-(Burr-R)- A potential upset for Democrats.
Vulnerable/Democratic Favored Seats.
CO-(Bennett-D)- Appointee with 0 electoral experience. GOP opposition is weak.
IL-(OPEN-Burris-D)- Both sides have top tier candidates- Giannoulias(D)vs Kirk(R). Dems will win in the end by a wide margin.
NV-(Reid-D)- A potential upset for Republicans.
DEM Pickup seats
MO(OPEN-Bond-R)- Carnahan-D
NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)-Hodes-D
OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)- Fisher-D
Too Close to Call.
CT-(Dodd-D)
PA-(Specter-D)

Hoeven will not beat Dorgan.  I'd just like to make that clear.

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R net +2 (42 seats)
D net -2 (58 seats)

Democrats hold both seats in New York, Schumer's with >70% and Gillibrand's with >50%.

I imagine all the big Democratic party figures will be staying put campaigning in Connecticut, Pennsylvania and certainly Nevada so they could still easily be held onto. If Illinois looks to be close this time next year, President Obama will certainly be there quite alot considering Giannoulias was part of Obama's "inner circle" in Illinois. If Deleware looks close, Biden'll be there campaigning alot of Beau aswell.

I don't disagree with you having us picking up seats, but why do you think that we will not keep Florida?

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Republican Favored.
AL
AK
AZ
FL
GA
ID
IA
KS
OK
SC
SD
UT
Leans Republican-
LA
NC
Tossup
AR
CO
CT
DE-if Castle runs.
KY
NV
NH
OH
PA
Leans DEM
IL
MO
NY-B
Democratic Favored
CA
DE-if Castle does not run.
HI
IN
MD
NY
ND
OR
VT
WA
WI


Dems will pick up MO and hold on to IL,NY-B,and DE-assuming Castle does not run.
AR,CO,CT,KY,NV,NH,OH,and PA will depend on how things turn out nationally.
IF 2010 is a bad year for DEMS- expect DEMs to lose couple of those seats.

AR- anti Obama state- hurt Lincoln ie Anti Bush in 2006 hurting Chaffee.
CO- Tough primary challenge against Bennett-
CT- Dodd's scandal- national Republicans are going target him.
KY- Tossup GOP held seat.
NV- National Republicans are going to target Reid to embarrass DEMS.
NH- Hodes is a boring candidate- Ayotte- is doing better than expected. DEMS need to define Ayotte- portray her as a Conservative nutjob.
OH- Divisive Dem Primary may help Portman-R- Need to remind OH voters how close Portman was with Bush-43 economic policies.
PA- Divisive DEM Primary. Need to remind PA voters how conservative Toomey is.

I think its silly for the liberals on the board to assume that a conservative republican cannot win a senate race in tossup or any other territory in a bad year for democrats.

In 2006 -
Ohio got Sherrod Brown, the most raging and vile liberal in the senate
Montana got, Jon Tester, a liberal with a crew cut
New Hampshire got Jeanne Shaheen, a full blown liberal
The only somewhat moderate senator from that class was Claire McCaskill
   
In 2008 -
North Carolina got Kay Hagan, a liberal in a lean republican state
Colorado got one of the Udall brothers

Each of these states are tossup, lean republican or lean democrat in national elections - If they can elect socialists like Brown - they can elect conservatives.  The reason I bring this up is that people continue to say Toomey will not win in Pennsylvania.  If it can happen in other tossup/lean states for liberals, it can surely happen for conservatives in PA and NH (if Ayotte even is conservative - we dont know yet).

Now if you are looking at states like NY or CA - then yeah, a full blown conservative might lose in a rout, but in the swing states they can still win big. 

Except all of those raging liberals in the swing states tend to vote pro homeland security or has not opposed funding of the war Webb, Tester, and Hagen.

With the right security message, pro homeland security, not pro war, those raging liberals, can blunt the republican message, like Carnahan or Fisher.

Liberals only oppose funding things (spending money) when a Republican is doing the spending.  Otherwise, they are all for it because using government money means more regulation and rules attached to that money for whatever group they are giving it to - it doesn't matter if it is military or not. 

A conservative message can certainly "blunt" the message of a liberal democrat when it advocates pro-growth, non spending policies.  Additionally, a pro-homeland security message only works when the country is focused on security, which it is not right now.

1.  It will be very unlikely for 2010 to be as strong for the GOP as 06 was for the Dems.  Bush's approvals were averaging in th3 37% range with his disapprovals around 57%,  around a -20 net.  In comparison right now Obama's approvals are in the mid 50's with disapprovals in the upper 30's with around a +17 net

2  All of the states you mentioned with the exception of Montana are less Republican than PA is Democratic and in Montana's case Tester ran a very strong campaign and Burns was involved in numerous scandals.  You could make the argument that NC is about as GOP ad PA is Democratic, but its trending rather strongly to the Dems and Obama did win the state.  Also Dole is a brutal campaigner.

I would put CO at lean Dem.  Bennet might be unknown and he might not even be the nominee after the Primary, but the shape of the GOP in the state is abysmal, I would say that is a lean.  Similar reason why I think Gillibrand is safe, the state GOP is a complete and utter joke.

I don't see Arkansas as being a toss up either.  While I agree that Bush hurt Chafee in RI and you could see Obama hurt Lincoln as well, few major differences.  First i think it will be very unlikely that Obama's numbers in Arkansas in 2010 will be as low as Bush's were in RI in 06 (25% approve, 74% disapprove).  Also at the state level Arkansas is still a very Democratic state.  On the state level Rhode Island is perhaps even more Democratic than it is on the national level (yes I know they have a GOP Gov, one of which who would have been toast if Chafee lost the Primary, but the State House and Senate are Democratic Supermajorites. 

In PA,  I just think the numbers in the Philly metro area will be too much for Toomey to overcome no matter if its Specter or Sestak

1-Your Obama approval ratings are way off.  Obama is at majority dissaprove in some polls (Rasmussen is at 53 disapproval) and only the crazy polls are keeping that average above 50%.  His disapprovals are in the 40s.

2-But what you are saying is that raging liberal democrats (Sherrod Brown and Jeanne Shaheen) can win in tossup states.  My contention is that hard-line right wingers can too.  You cant say that one can and the other cant.  Thats the problem with the analysis.  The liberals are all saying that the republicans have to be more moderate in those states, but you cannot account for the same on your side.

They can't in this sort of a scenario with a very strong moderate liberal in Sestak and a painfully terrible candidate in Toomey.

Toomey is not a terrible candidate.  Please explain how he continued to win in his congressional district where there were more democrats than republicans.

1  Rasmussen is the ONLY poll to have Obama's numbers around there, everyone else has him higher,

CNN   53-45
CBS   56-35
Ipsos 56-40
Pew    52-37
Gallup 55-38
Rasmussen 49-51

Which one doesn't fit????

2.  I also don't see Obama's approvals being as low as Bush's were in 06. 

3.  Also someone like Toomey is a bit further right than Brown is to the left.  Even if you disagree with that, Ohio is not as Republican as Pennsylvania is Democratic.  Ohio is a true toss up state, Pennsylvania is a lean Democratic state.    On top of that the dynamics of the two states make it a  bit more possible in Ohio than in Pennsylvania.  First off 2006 was a BRUTAL year for the GOP in Ohio.  As bad as it was nationwide Ohio was one of the hardest states.  Even if it winds up being a bad year for Obama, what are the chances PA becomes on of the worst hit states of the year much like Ohio was in 06?  You also have the suburban Philly factor.  For a Republican to win statewide they might not exactly need to win the Philly suburbs (though no one from either party has won without them), but they need to be at least competitive there.  Toomey simply won't be able to do that period, he is just too conservative to be competitive there.  Even if it winds up being a rough year for the Dems, the margins he will lose by in the SE will just be too much to overcome

And Rasmussen is the only one weighting correctly - he was also weighting correctly during the presidential election.  All of the others give democrats 11pt+ party identification advantages in their polls when at max it is at 6pts.  For example in the pew poll, of the 2003 people polled, 23% identified as republican, 34% as democrat, and 37% as independent.  And the CBS poll is a joke.  Most of the others all show his disapproval in the range of high-low forties.

Pennsylvania is also getting hard hit by Obama's policies and I guarantee that if Cap n' Trade passes, Toomey will win.

Rasmussen may be a decent election pollster, but his approval polls are complete BS. He consistently had Bush 10 points higher than every other pollster, and it looks to be the reverse for Obama.

Lets just say that it will be impossible for any Democratic seat to flip Republican in 2010.

Since getting elected in 1992- Boxer(CA),Murray(WA) and Fiengold(WI) have been target by the Republicans in their 1998 and 2004 re-election cycle. yet the Democratic incumbents win handily over their GOP challengers. This election cycle Republicans have third tier candidates making Boxer(CA),Murray(WA),and Feingold(WI) safe in their re-election bids.

Blanche Lincoln (AR) is the only red state Southern US Senator facing re-election in 2010. Lincoln may not be likeable as Dale Bumpers or the Pryors(David or Mark) but she is hell alot better that her potential GOP opponents- who are a bunch of nutjobs.

Other US Senators facing re-election in 2010.
Chris Dodd(CT) is facing a tough re-election campaign the first time in his 30 year US Senate Career. The DSCC,DNC,Obama,Biden,Lieberman,the Clintons, will do everything to protect Dodd. Keeping Dodd in the US Senate will be the number 1 priority.

Dan Inouye(HI) is safe. probally running unopposed.
Evan Bayh(IN) is safe.
Barbara Mikulski (MD) is safe.
Harry Reid(NV) will face a tough race this election cycle. The DSCC, DNC, Obama,Biden,Clintons, will do everything to protect Reid.
Chuck Schumer(NY) is safe. running unopposed.
Byron Dorgan (ND) is safe. very popular in ND.
Ron Wyden (OR) is safe. running unopposed.
Patrick Leahy (VT) is safe. running unopposed.

Other Democratic US Senate seats.
Mike Bennett(CO) is lucky that a top tier GOP candidate like Bill Owens, Scott McInnis, is not challenging him otherwise- he would be in a similar situation as Jean Carnahan-MO- another appointed US Senator who lost in their bid for re-election.

Beau Biden(DE) is safe unless Mike Castle runs. in that case. VP Biden will do everything to make sure his former constituents in DE elect his son Beau.

Alexi Giannoulias (IL) is favored in General Election. President Obama will do everything to help his friend his his old US Senate Seat.

Kirsten Gillibrand(NY) is a shoe in due to weak GOP opposition and Schumer(NY's) coattails.

The Democrats will hold on to PA due to strong support in the Philadelphia Burbs region.

Democrats will pick up MO,NH,and OH. The Democrats have top tier candidates and GOP candidates in MO,and OH are unpopular.

KY open is going to be a tossup.
NC will be a possible upset for us.
LA will be competitive.

As Johnny stated Rasmussen is a decent election pollster (close to the election) but his approvals have always been off.

Rasmussen is a partisan Republican pollster.  Just look at the slanted questions he asks. 

2010 US Senate Prediction.
AL-Shelby-R 70-30
AK-Murkowski-R 60-40
AZ-McCain-R 55-45
AR-Lincoln-D 55-45
CA-Boxer-D 60-40
CO-Bennett-D 52-47
CT- Dodd-D 50-50 race.
DE(Special)-Biden-D 50-50 against Castle-R 60-40 against generic R.
FL- Crist-R- 55-45
GA- Isakson-R 60-40
HI- Inouye-D 70-30
ID- Crapo-R 70-30
IL- Giannoulias-D 55-45
IN- Bayh-D 65-35
IA- Grassley-R 60-40
KS- Moran-R 60-40
KY- Grayson-R 52-47
LA- Vitter-R 55-45
MD- Mikulski-D 65-35
MA-Special (Coakley-D) 60-40
MO-Carnahan-D 55-45
NV- Reid-D 52-47
NH- Hodes-D 52-47
NY- Schumer-D 70-30
NY(Special)- Gillibrand-D 60-40
NC- Burr-R 52-47
ND- Dorgan-D 65-35
OH- Fisher-D 52-47
OK- Coburn-R 60-40
OR- Wyden-D 65-35
PA- Specter-D 55-45
SC- DeMint-R 60-40
SD- Thune-R 60-40
UT- Bennett-R 70-30
VT- Leahy-D 70-30
WA- Murray-D 60-40
WI- Feingold-D 60-40

Is John Hoeven going to run in 2010? He was supposed to make a final decision back in September of this year.

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Updated Map:

Boxer will win California, no matter who the nominee is.  I flirted with it for a second, but our wave will not be that strong.

To make up however, Lincoln will lose

I am awaiting Hoeven's announcment.  The moment he decides for or against, or the longer he takes, the soon I will make a change or keep the same.  If Hoeven jumps in he wins.

We lose Missouri.

Total Net Pickup of 6-7 seats.
Senate Makeup: 2 I, 47 R, 51 D or 2 I, 46 R, 52 D

I think we would win MO before IL or even PA.

R pickups:

AR, CT, DE, NV

D pickups:

MO, NH, OH

Too close to call:

CO, PA

Dems aren't going to win anywhere in the South.

Democratic Pickup
MO,OH
Democratic Retention
CA,HI,IL,IN,MD,NY,NY,ND,OR,PA,VT,WA,and WI.
Tossup.
CT,DE,NV,and NH.
Republican Pickup
AR,CO
Republican Retention.
AL,AK,AZ,FL,GA,ID,KS,KY,LA,NC,OK,SC,SD,and UT

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GOP + 1 after Dems pick up NH, OH, KY, and MO.  GOP picks up NV, CO, CT, AK, and DE.

Change KY and NH.

Some thoughts...
Obama's approval ratings will hover between 45-50% in 2010, and will be sitting at 49% on election night.
Ohio - Democrats have some good candidates, and I just see the momentum shifting their way on this one. Things could change though.
Missouri - With Obama's approval ratings in a freefall here, Roy Blunt should be able to tie Carnahan to Obama, and pull out a victory.
Arkansas - This will be interesting. In the end, I think many ticked off Democrats will do a protest vote for the Green Party candidate, and the Republican candidate successfully ties Lincoln to Obama.
Pennyslvania - Toomey beats Specter. A great matchup, and will be a fun race to watch.
New Hampshire - Alloyte (sp?) is doing well so far. Hopefully she can get the money in there to retain the seat.
Indiana - I'll be honest, I would like to see some polling done here, especially Bayh's approvals. I have a feeling they aren't as high as most would think. Bayh has relied on the rural vote for years, and I think he will struggle with it in 2010. Republicans have a likeable and smart candidate in Stutzman, though I doubt he can pull it off in the end. Daniels could beat Bayh though, and Pence would make it interesting.


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Republicans take CO, CT, DE, PA, and maybe NV, IL, and AR  if they're very lucky. So, 44 - 47, I suspect on the lower end atm.

CO and DE are the only two vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seats likely to fall to the Republicans.
CO is a swing state- Bennett-D is an appointed US Senator with low name recognition and Republicans have a top tier candidate Lt Governor Jane Norton. During neutral years-Appointed backbench US Senators like Bennet-CO usually go down.
DE-is a unique case. DE is a blue state- the Democratic nominee- AG Beau Biden is the son of the sitting VP and popular former 6 term US Senator. However the Republican Candidate is an 11 time Popular Statewide Elected Official. Mike Castle served 1 term as Lt Governor,2 terms as Governor and 9 terms as At Large US House Member since 1980. If the race is just between Castle vs Biden Jr. Castle wins but if the race is between Castle vs Joe and Beau Biden- the race becomes a tossup and Biden Jr can give Castle the race of his life.
Dems will hold onto AR(Lincoln-D)-due to Republicans nominating a wingnut. CT(Dodd-D)due to Dodd's seniority status. IL(OPEN-Burris-D)-due to President Obama's influence and the Daley Machine. NV(Reid-D) due to Reid's seniority status and GOP nominee being unacceptable and PA(Specter-D) due to Liberal fears of Toomey being to conservative.
On the Republican side. Republicans are likely to lose MO and OH due to weak unpopular Republican candidates- Roy Blunt-MO and Rob Portman-OH who have ties to Bush43 and Tom Delay. The open NH and KY seat are pure tossups. Republican incumbents LA(Vitter) and NC(Burr) can face surprise defeats.

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Democrats: 58 (-)
Republicans: 40 (-)
Independents: 2 (-)

Republicans are starting to look confident I see ;)

I'm still pretty sure that we'll pick up Missouri and Ohio, and I still see no reason why the Dems wouldn't be able to pull out a victory in New Hampshire.

Castle will make Delaware really close, but I still think Biden can pull out a small victory. (But then it might just be me hoping)

Lincoln is starting to look really weak in Arkansas. Her bad judgement on the Health Care issue, and the fact that Republicans will try to tie her to Obama will make her vulnurable. At this point I think she'll lose.

Reid... is there any good Republican alternatives yet? I still think he'll make it. If he don't... well I wouldn't miss him too much honestly.

No Republican will win Obama's Senate seat. Kirk might make it close, but in the end he won't win.

I'm worried about Bennet, but there's more than one year until election. He has plenty of time left to build himself a reputation in Colorado, and a lot of things will happen during that time that might swing things in his favour. I think he'll make it.

I still think Republicans will claim Conneticut.

Pennsylvania is all up to the Democrats in the state. Are they stupid enough to nominate that disgusting little worm Specter, Toomey has a good shot at winning. If they nominate Sestak, we win.

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This is far from over though. I think much of 2010 will depend on the Health Reform, and voters' reaction to it. This might change drasticly in favour of either party. 

 

   

Right now, I expect multiple races to be fairly close (I'm looking at you Delaware, Illinois, Nevada and Connecticut), but on the whole I'm willing to hedge my bets on a net break-even.

I don't think Dems are so much have to worry about PA, AR, and IL, those are must win states for us, I think DE, CO, NV, and CT are states where a couple could defect.  I would be happy with 61 votes in the Senate.

Democrats will keep AR(Lincoln-D) due to the weakness of the state Republican party in Arkansas. Lincoln-AR may be a thorn on our side but she is a hell lot better than whoever the Republicans nominate. IL(OPEN-Obama/Burris-D)- blue state-Obama's former seat due to demographic favoring Democrats and Obama's influence will help Giannoulias-D.. NV(Reid-D)-due to Reid's clout. Electing Reid is better for the state than a backbench freshman Republican. PA(Specter-R) due to Toomey's rightwing extremism. CT(Dodd-D) and DE(OPEN-Biden/Kaufman-D) will be too close to call but Democrats will hold onto those seats due to Dodd's seniority clout and VP Joe Biden's influence and Beau Biden's potential campaign skills. The only seat Democrats will lose in Colorado- Bennett is an appointed US Senator with low name recognition- he is facing a tough primary campaign against Andrew Romanoff and general election campaign against ex Lt Governor Jane Norton. On the Republican side- Republicans will lose MO and OH due to unpopularity of the GOP candidates. keep NH- due to Ayotte's percieve moderate image, and KY- due to demographics. as well as FL,KS,LA,and NC.

I don't know about KY, because it has lost population and the Republicans can win the governorship back in 2011, I would just stick to MO, Oh, and NH and CO for now and then worry about NV and KY switching.

Newest Prediction:

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Republicans: +2 seats

Democrats pick up Ohio and Missouri; Republicans pick up Arkansas, Connecticut, Colorado, and Nevada.

Democrats hold on to Delaware, and Republicans hold on to New Hampshire and Kentucky.

()

New prediction.

Dem pickups: MO, OH
Rep pickups: DE, AR, CO

Democrats: 57
Republicans: 41
Independents: 2

()

Both parties evenly split

The Republicans pick up 7 seats in 2010:

Arkansas (Gilbert Baker)
Colorado (Jane Norton)
Connecticut (Rob Simmons)
Delaware (Mike Castle)
Illinois (Mark Kirk)
Nevada (Sue Lowden)
Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey)

for a Senate with a Democratic majority of 53-47.

Other freshmen:

Florida (Charlie Crist)
Ohio (Rob Portman)
Kansas (Jerry Moran)
Kentucky (Rand Paul)
Missouri (Roy Blunt)
New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte)

Not a single Dem freshman, though Carnahan and Giannoulias come close.

Too lazy to make map

Joe Sestak will beat Arlen Specter turncoat, pro war Dem in the primary and Giannoulias will beat Mark Kirk.  I think PA and IL is leaning our way.

Specter has the support of the White House. I wouldn't count Sestak out, but Specter has the advantage.

In PA, polls show Toomey ahead of Sestak, and either ahead or tied with Specter. That sounds like a Republican victory. Illinois is just pure tossup.

The reason I count both as Republican pickups is that Obama's approval rating - and that of Democrats in general - looks unlikely to improve in 2010 (though I don't foresee 2009's 20% drop-off). Therefore, I think races which are currently close will probably go Republican come November.

I think that the economy will not stay above 10 percent and gradually improves to 8 percent by election day the Dems will take moderate hits.

()

Both sides pickup 3 seats, so no net switch.

Will include Massachusetts. Also, D.C. is NY Special election.

Republican pickups - North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado, Pennyslvania, Deleware, Arkansas, Massachusetts
Democrat pickups - ...

Closest States: Missouri, Illinois

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Mizzouri was never a lean takeaway. Blunt will win.

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I've decided to be optimistic. I think Kirk and Campbell can beat Giannoulias and Boxer; the others are self-explanatory.

For MA

Brown 53.9%, Coakley 45.1%, Kennedy 1.8%
Winner predicted by Right Pundits critically acclaimed elections desk at 7:26pm ET.

A fortnight ago, I would have said you were crazy about Boxer.  She is hugely vulnerable and could lose.

46-50, but probably just 46 or 47.

I say Dems will have 56 seats in Nov. , 3 this time around along with MA special.

The topic creater should have given us the option to change our vote.

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55D-45R

lol

My prediction has 50 GOP senators, but that has a lot of generic "change for the sake of change" built into it, with most tossups going to the GOP.  Given that Obama is sticking to his my way highway, I don't see the anti-Dem bias dissipating, and possibly, growing a bit more to swallow some moderate Dem voters.

Realistically, I think probably 48.  Boxer will probably squeak it out (by CA standards) and I imagine that either one other GOP candidate will implode or the local Dems will get their stuff together enough to pull their race off.

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This is the worst case scenario for the Democrats:

Rossi, Thompson and Pataki all jump in and win, Boxer loses narrowly in CA.

GOP+13 for 2010

If Blumenthal does something stupid, Connecticut could be up for grabs. That would be unlikely, though.

GOP +7

DE, ND, IN, NV, CO, AR, PA

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GOP +7 to +9

IL and one of NY, WI, and CA are possible.

46-50

Ill say GOP+2 for 43 seats.  They pick up AR, IN, ND, and DE, while Democrats pick up OH and NC.

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55-45D''s

GOP +6-9

SAFE TAKEOVER- ND, IN

LIKELY TAKEOVER (May come back but time is running out)- AR, WI

LEAN TAKEOVER- PA

TOSSUP TAKOVER- CO, NV, MO

All are as of now, except Missouri where Carnahan is clearly behind today.

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Lol at Connecticut flipping before Arkansas

The AR GOP outside Huckabee was viewed as a joke until sometime in 2010.

Most of these predictions actually underestimated Democrats. Many people thought Connecticut and Delaware would go Republican, while Arkansas and Indiana would stay Democratic. Although Indiana might've been before Bayh retired. There were also way more blue avatars in this thread than I've seen in a long, long time.

Bayh would not have defeated Dan Coats.