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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 15, 2018, 07:16:51 am
愛媛(Ehime) is a 1- member district deep inside the LDP Southern Japan bastion.  In 2016 it surprising became competitive so it might make sense to call it out as a possible battleground even though it seems LDP should be destined to win.

In 2013 the Center-Left failed to nominate a candidate and it was
LDP            66.60% elected
YP              18.37%
JCP            10.96%
HRP             2.53%
Minor           1.54%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        59.39%
Center-Left  14.10% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    18.87% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               7.11%
HRP              0.53%

In 2013 this district was so noncompetitive that DPJ failed to nominate or back a candidate.  The Center-Left PR vote split their vote between the LDP and JCP candidate.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed an ex-DPJ MP candidate running as a DP backed independent
LDP             49.58% elected  (incumbent)
Ind(DP)       48.30% (ex-MP)
HRP              2.12%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       58.39%
Center-Left  23.71%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     9.05%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              6.97%
NPB             1.15%
HRP             0.73%

The ex-MP opposition common candidate was fairly popular locally plus the anti-TPP wave pulled in a large number of LDP-KP PR votes to get the race to neck-to-neck and then a narrow loss to a LDP incumbent.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       51.78%
Center-Left 36.07% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     6.02% (JRP)
JCP              5.57%
HRP             0.55%

LDP-KP support in 2017 has dropped from 2016 so if the Center-Left-JCP can back the same popular ex-MP as its candidate in 2019 they might have a chance to pull off an upset like the the 2016 near upset.  But without the 2016 anti-TPP wave this seems unlikely although it could be close again like 2016.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 14, 2018, 09:57:04 pm
兵庫(Hyōgo) was a 2- member district until 2016 when it became a 3- member district.   A 2- member district usually is 1 seat for LDP and 1 for the main Center-Left party.  In a 3- member district it is 2 LDP or 1 LDP 1 KP followed by 1 for the main Center-Left party.  But in 兵庫(Hyōgo) JRP is strong and took the seat of the main Center-Left party since 2013.

In 2013 it was
LDP            37.78% elected  (incumbent)
JRP            26.05% elected   
DPJ            14.95% (incumbent)
JCP              9.60%
YP               7.58%
GP               2.53%
HRP             1.52%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        46.49%
Center-Left  16.22% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    27.33% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               9.59%
HRP              0.37%

There seems to be significant tactical voting by LDP-KP PR voters for JRP to defeat DPJ. 

In 2016 兵庫(Hyōgo)  turned into a 3- member seats which had KP running a candidate
LDP           26.33% elected  (incumbent)
KP             22.24% elected 
ORA           21.79% elected   
DP             17.23%  (incumbent)
JCP             9.39%
HRP            2.05%
PJK             0.98%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.09%
Center-Left  19.62%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole    21.37%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             10.30%
NPB             0.72%
HRP             0.91%

KP was at risk of losing the 3rd seat to DP and made a massive push on the ground and got tactical voting by Center-Left PR voters for KP to push KP into second place and DP into 4th place with ORA winning the 3rd and last seat.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.74%
Center-Left 32.00% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole   13.65% (JRP)
JCP              8.14%
HRP             0.47%

For 2019 it seems JRP level of support has fallen to the point that they are unlikely to win the 3rd and last seat again a concentration of the Center-Left PR vote around a common candidate, most likely CDP.  If DPP were to run it would be more competitive but in the end unless there will be LDP-KP PR tactically vote for JRP, CDP should win the 3rd and last seat.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka,MP,Rajasthan,Chhattisgarh+NE states on: August 14, 2018, 07:13:16 pm
BJP is pushing to move toward a model where all LS and assembly elections are held at the same time which as the norm 1967 and before.  BJP seems to believe that with Modi at the helm a "Presidential" type election will favor it over the opposition and that holding assembly elections at the time would deny the opposition the chance to build up their ability to cooperate.

It seems one thing BJP will do is try to hold the 2019 assembly elections at the same time as the LS elections.  Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, AP and Telegana were already slated to run at the same time as the LS election.  The BJP would push to have Maharashtra, J&K, Haryana, and Jharkhand which are all rule by the BJP (J&K are under governor rule so its the same thing) to held earlier with the LS election. 

In theory BJP could also have other BJP ruled states like Assam, Goa, UP, and Uttarakhand to also hold their assembly election earlier to be  in early 2019 with LS election.  Of course the local BJP MLAs will oppose this saying why should they face early re-election.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka,MP,Rajasthan,Chhattisgarh+NE states on: August 14, 2018, 07:06:15 pm
ABP News-CVoter  poll has INC well ahead in Rajasthan and slightly ahead in MP and Chhattisgarh

Rajasthan is pretty much lost for BJP.  For MP and Chhattisgarh the bad news for the BJP is that incumbents tends to under-perform their pre-election polling.  The good news is that Modi has not really gotten going on campaigning and Amit Shah as not started get involved in election strategy yet.  In such a close race that could turn the tide.

Rajasthan which is very elastic
   
           seats   vote share
BJP         57       36.8%
INC       130       50.8%
Others    13        12.4%





MP
           seats   vote share
BJP       106       40.1%
INC       117       41.7%
Others     7        18.2%




Chhattisgarh which is pretty inelastic
           seats   vote share
BJP        33       38.8%
INC       54        40.0%
Others     3       21.3%

5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 14, 2018, 07:13:11 am
大阪(Osaka) which is a 4- member district is unique in the sense that given the strength of the JRP which grew out of a 大阪(Osaka) LDP regional splinter means that beyond LDP and KP winning a seat each the JRP will win a seat with the last seat a battle between JRP JCP, the main Center-Left candidate, and potentially a second LDP candidate.

In 2013 it was
JRP             28.83% elected
LDP            22.31% elected
KP              19.02% elected
JCP             12.79% elected  
DPJ              9.20%  (incumbent)
YP                4.31%
NPD             1.54%
JRP rebel      0.57%
JRP rebel      0.55%
Minor           0.48%
HRP             0.39%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        42.67%
Center-Left  10.41% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    34.75% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             11.92%
HRP              0.26%

Most the PR vote went to the candidates in their respective bloc.  Inability for JRP and YP to coordinate their votes lost YP a seat when there votes were there to take the 4th seat from JCP.

In 2016 with YP out of the picture ORA nominated 2 candidates and it was
LDP           20.41% elected  
ORA           19.50% elected  
KP             18.21% elected  (incumbent)
ORA           17.95% elected  
JCP            12.18%
DP              9.32%  (incumbent)
PJK             1.02%
NPB            0.98%
HRP            0.44%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       38.50%
Center-Left  12.14%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole    36.77%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             11.37%
NPB             0.82%
HRP             0.39%

ORA was able to capture 2 seats.  There seems to be some tactical voting by Center-Left PR voters for both JCP and ORA since the DP candidate clearly was not in the running.  ORA mostly won 2 seats by being able to equally distribute its vote share between its two candidates.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       43.01%
Center-Left 20.69% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole   26.86% (JRP)
JCP              9.10%
HRP             0.34%

In 2019 it seems that the JRP vote base has shrunk such so that it is unlikely they can run 2 candidates and expect both to win.  The it comes down who will win the 4th seat, DCP or JCP.  Given the relative decline of JCP in 大阪(Osaka) it seems DCP will have a better shot.  Of course JRP will run 2 candidates anyway and if DPP also runs a candidate then the LDP might also run a 2nd candidate to take advantage of the opposition split.  More likely than not DCP will win the 4th seats but it really depends on the candidate nomination structure.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 13, 2018, 12:54:26 pm
滋賀(Shiga) is a 1- member district which go LDP but since it was competitive in the 2000-2010 period one can argue that it is a battleground district.

In 2013 it was
LDP            53.42% elected
DPJ            29.24% (incumbent)
JCP            15.12%
HRP             2.22%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        46.22%
Center-Left  21.21% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    21.67% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             10.46%
HRP              0.43%

It seems here the LDP candidate drew in a good portion of the Third Pole PR vote to make a win very easy as JCP also ate into the Center-Left PR vote.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
LDP             52.22% elected
DP              45.78% (incumbent)
HRP              2.00%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.42%
Center-Left  25.33%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole    14.36%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             11.44%
NPB             0.74%
HRP             0.70%

Here LDP pulled in a good part of the Third Pole PR vote despite the DP incumbent advantage which gave it a comfortable victory despite Center-Left-JCP opposition unity. 

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.26%
Center-Left 35.74% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole   11.18% (JRP)
JCP              8.29%
HRP             0.53%

In theory given the LDP-KP PR vote LDP is vulnerable.  But the reality is that in  滋賀(Shiga) the LDP always seems to pull in a lot of Third Pole PR vote which should add to the LDP incumbency advantage and hand the LDP a fairly simple and significant victory. 
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 13, 2018, 10:49:34 am
三重(Mie) is a 1- member district which has a pro-opposition lean since the early 1990s  and as a result is a battleground district.

In 2013 it was
LDP            44.23% elected
DPJ            37.62% (incumbent)
JRP              8.39%
JCP              7.02%
LDP rebel     1.76%
HRP             0.98%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        47.25%
Center-Left  27.23% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    18.22% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               6.92%
HRP              0.38%

The DPJ incumbent was fairly popular so he was able to pull in some LDP-KP and Third Pole PR votes in a losing effort.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             49.72%  elected (incumbent)
LDP           47.48% 
HRP             2.81%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.75%
Center-Left 37.79%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.52%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              7.59%
NPB             0.62%
HRP             0.74%

The local Center-Left forces are fairly hostile to JCP and resisted the JCP alliance until the last minute.  The LDP candidate was to over-perform the LDP-KP PR vote despite the DP incumbency advantage is a sign of this.  In the end it was not enough and the DP incumbent was able to win.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.84%
Center-Left 41.45% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     4.62% (JRP)
JCP              6.35%
HRP             0.73%

Most of the Center-Left forces in 三重(Mie) post the DP-HP merger into DPP joined up with a local 三重(Mie) based party which is pro-CDP.  So assuming the Center-Left bloc forms an alliance with JCP it will be a pro-CDP independent that will run as the common opposition candidate.   This realignment has improved the relationship between the Center-Left and JCP and most likely the joint opposition candidate can pull out a win against the LDP incumbent even though it will be close. 
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 13, 2018, 07:02:35 am
長野(Nagano) was a 2- member district until 2016 when it became a 1- member district which turned it into a battleground prefecture.  JCP is very strong here and if the Center-Left can form an alliance with the JCP then LDP is mostly destined to lose.

In 2013 it was
LDP            37.24% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ            30.05% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            15.77%
YP              10.91%
DPJ rebel      5.27%
HRP             0.77%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        42.21%
Center-Left  24.79% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    18.70% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             13.87%
HRP              0.43%

The Center-Left candidates pulled in LDP-KP and Third Pole PR votes mostly, it seems, as tactical voting to ensure that the JCP candidate does not win.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             52.45%  elected
LDP           45.69%   (incumbent)
HRP             1.86%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.97%
Center-Left 33.68%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     5.82%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            12.61%
NPB             1.20%
HRP             0.72%

Despite the LDP incumbency advantage the LDP candidate seems to have just pulled in the LDP-KP PR vote and nothing else in a losing effort as the DPJ incumbent from 2010 retired.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       37.56%
Center-Left 45.17% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     5.63% (JRP)
JCP            11.04%
HRP             0.60%

So as long as the Center-Left parties can form an alliance with JCP then DPJ turned DPP incumbent should be set for re-election over the LDP incumbent.  If the JCP runs separately then the LDP will be at a slight disadvantage and we could have a battle on our hands.   
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 12, 2018, 05:42:14 pm
新潟(Niigata) was a 2- member district until 2016 until it became a 1- member district.  Before 2016 the result is easy, 1 LDP and 1 Center-Left opposition.  After 2016 this became a battleground prefecture.

In 2013 it was
LDP            43.01% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ            19.30% elected  (incumbent from PR list)
PLP            15.57%  (incumbent)
JRP            10.14%
JCP              5.68%
SDP             4.43%
LDP rebel     1.47%
HRP             0.49%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        48.32%
Center-Left  26.48% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    17.36% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               7.48%
HRP              0.36%

The PLP candidate was the incumbent elected in 2007 on the DPJ ticket and lost re-election.  Center-Left candidates clearly pulled in votes from LDP-KP and Third Pole PR voters.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the PLP incumbent loser from 2013 as a common candidate running as an independent.  
Ind(PLP)     49.02%  elected (ex-MP)
LDP            48.82%  (incumbent)
HRP             2.16%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       51.93%
Center-Left 31.65%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.14%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              8.00%
NPB             1.59%
HRP             0.70%

Clearly the LDP candidate lost a bunch of LDP-KP PR vote to lose in a close race.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.29%
Center-Left 42.58% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.20% (JRP)
JCP              7.25%
HRP             0.68%

We have to assume that both the LDP and DPJ turned CDP incumbents will run.  If so as long as the Center-Left bloc and stay united and get JCP to back a common candidate the opposition should win given the LDP track record of losing LDP-KP PR votes.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka,MP,Rajasthan,Chhattisgarh+NE states on: August 12, 2018, 03:13:28 pm
https://www.firstpost.com/politics/kcr-likely-to-opt-for-early-polls-telangana-may-vote-with-madhya-pradesh-rajasthan-and-chattisgarh-4947821.html

Looks like TRS might dissolve the Telangana assembly and call early elections for later this year along with MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.  I assume this is to make sure that INC-TDP alliance does not have time to be formed, worked out and gel at the ground.  INC-TDP alliance seems like the only way for TRS to be defeated.  With recent events which is pulling TRS and BJP together there might be a de facto even de jure TRS-BJP alliance in the upcoming assembly election.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 12, 2018, 02:25:49 pm
東京(Tokyo) which was a 5- member district until it became a 6- member district in 2016 will also be a battleground given the fact that with so many members to be elected the threshold to be elected were always low.  With a 5- or 6- member district LDP KP and JCP will win a seat each with the rest depending on the structure of candidates.  Since the number of candidates were large I will focus on the large vote share candidates (above 1%.)

In 2013 it was
LDP            18.88% elected  (incumbent)
KP              14.15% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            12.49% elected
Ind(SDP)    11.83% elected
LDP            10.86% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ              9.80%  (incumbent)
JRP              7.34%
YP                5.68%
DPJ rebel      4.20%  (incumbent)
ISS              1.37%  (Far Right Monarchical)
GW              1.25%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        44.14%
Center-Left  17.27% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    24.63% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             13.71%
HRP              0.25%

LDP-KP candidates mostly retained the LDP-KP PR vote while the Third Pole candidates clearly lost Third Pole PR vote share to Center-Left candidates.  The DPJ rebel cost the Center-Left a second winner beyond SDP backed anti-nuclear independent.  The anti-nuclear independent later joined PLP which later became LP.  

In 2016 it was
DP             18.05% elected  (incumbent)
LDP           14.22% elected  (incumbent)
KP             12.38% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            10.70% elected
LDP           10.36% elected
DP              8.16% elected  (incumbent)
ORA            7.54% (ex-MP)
DP rebel      4.98%
Ind(PLP)      4.13% (Far Left and most likely pulled in JCP PR vote)
PJK             1.65%
SDP            1.51%
VPA            1.32%
DP rebel      1.09%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.81%
Center-Left 27.39%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole   10.73%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            14.21%
NPB             1.50%
HRP             0.37%

Here LDP-KP way under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote and lost most of them to Center-Left candidates.  Poor vote allocation between the 2 DP candidates nearly lost DP a seat to ORA.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       41.28%
Center-Left 41.98% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     4.00% (JRP PJK)
JCP            10.37%
HRP             0.27%

It is clear that LDP will nominate 2 candidates, JCP 1 candidate, LP will nominate their incumbent.  CDP might nominate 1 or 2 candidates, DPP will nominate 1 candidate and JRP will nominate 1 candidate.  LDP KP and JCP will for sure win 1 seat each.  CDP LP and the second LDP candidates are all likely to win.  JRP might take one of them down but that seems unlikely.  Main risk for CDP is that 2 CDP candidates plus a DPP candidate could split the Center-Left vote so that JRP comes in and take one of the CDP seats.  To some extent the second LDP candidate could be also vulnerable depending on the LDP vote split between the 2 LDP candidates.        
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 12, 2018, 08:20:17 am
山梨(Yamanashi) is a 1- member district which always has been a swing prefecture.  

In 2013 it was
LDP            37.30% elected
Ind(DPJ)     19.81%
LDP rebel    16.18%
YP              15.38%  (incumbent)
JCP              9.44%
Minor           1.04%
HRP             0.84%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        48.54%
Center-Left  19.75% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    22.56% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              8.76%
HRP             0.39%

The LDP rebel took in a bunch of LDP-KP and Third Pole PR vote.  

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate but with DP rebel with YP background (was a DPJ winner in 2007 and lost in 2013 as the YP candidate)
DP              43.02%  elected
LDP            37.75%
DP rebel     16.71%  (ex-MP)
HRP             2.52%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       50.18%
Center-Left 32.10%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.32%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              9.20%
NPB             1.34%
HRP             0.86%

Here the DP rebel ate more info the LDP-KP PR vote share than the Center-Left PR vote share with the DP candidate winning by a comfortable margin.  

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.13%
Center-Left 41.27% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.46% (JRP)
JCP              7.38%
HRP             0.77%

Given the track record of the LDP candidate having problems holding the LDP-KP PR vote share as long as the Center-Left and JCP can get behind a common candidate (most likely from CDP) most likely LDP will lose this seat despite the LDP incumbent advantage but this one will most likely be very close.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 11, 2018, 06:40:18 pm
神奈川(Kanagawa) is a 4- member district which means LDP and KP will win 1 seat each along with a likely Center-Left candidate.  The battle is usually about who wins the last one.  If the opposition is split enough then the LDP will try to pick one more off.  Even without that it is often a battle between a Center-Left opposition, JCP and possibly a Third Pole candidate for the last seat.

In 2013 it was
LDP            28.79% elected
YP              18.85% elected (ex-MP and ex-Governor)
KP              16.03% elected
DPJ            11.74% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            11.33%  (ex-MP)
JRP              6.17%  (incumbent)
GW              3.05%
SDP             1.96%
ISS              1.05%  (Far Right Monarchical)
Minor           0.77%
HRP             0.25%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        45.57%
Center-Left  18.63% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    25.39% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             10.19%
HRP              0.23%

The results mostly matches the PR vote with YP winning a seat in a very strong year for Third Pole.  The YP winner which is a former governor was very high profile later joined PFG/PJK before joining HP and is now the leader of the rump HP.

In 2016 it was
LDP           24.50% elected   (incumbent)
KP             15.35% elected
DP             14.19% elected  (incumbent on the PR section)
Ind(LDP)    12.77% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            11.89%
DP             10.94%   (incumbent)
ORA            5.33%
SDP            1.86%
PJK             1.23%
LDP rebel    0.78%
NPB            0.63%
HRP            0.53%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.10%
Center-Left 27.73%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole   10.74%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            12.46%
NPB             1.48%
HRP             0.49%

Here 2 DP and 1 JCP candidates fighting for the 2 seats beyond LDP and KP provoked a LDP faction to nominate an ex-YP incumbent from 2010 to try to take advantage of the opposition split over the objection of another LDP faction which was backing the official LDP candidate.  This intra-LDP battle actually provoked tactical voting from Center-Left and Third Pole PR votes for the 2 LDP candidates which actually led to the pro-LDP independent winning after which he was retroactively nominated by the LDP.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.13%
Center-Left 42.37% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.95% (JRP)
JCP              8.19%
HRP             0.35%

LDP and KP will win 1 seat each.  Most likely CDP and DPP will nominate a candidate each along with JCP and the HP incumbent will run as well.  Having 4 opposition candidates for the 2 remaining seats will most likely provoke LDP to run a second candidate as well.  Given local roots of the HP candidates and the strength of CDP PR vote most likely the 2 remaining seats will be CDP and HP.  Although it is possible JCP or LDP might win instead of the HP candidate with DPP candidate further behind.  But this will depend on the identity of the CDP DPP and possible LDP candidate.  

There are already rumors that 神奈川(Kanagawa) in 2019 will be a total chaotic fight with 2 LDP candidates, 1 KP, 2 DCP, 1 DPP, 1 HP, 1 JCP, 1 JRP and 1 SDP candidate.  If so it could upend all calculations and result in landslide defeats in terms of seats for either the ruling or opposition blocs.   In such a case I still think it will end up being LDP KP CDP JCP although the result will be quite volatile.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 11, 2018, 05:51:38 am
埼玉(Saitama) is a 3- member district which starting in 2019 will become a 4- member district.  As a 3- member district  埼玉(Saitama) results are simple: it will always be LDP KP and Center-Left.  As a 4- member district the results are less certain.

In 2013 it was
LDP            34.05% elected  (incumbent)
KP              20.41% elected
YP              16.52% elected   (incumbent)
DPJ            13.26%  (incumbent)
JCP            12.03%
SDP             2.24%
HRP             0.76%
Minor           0.73%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        48.22%
Center-Left  17.57% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    22.54% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             11.34%
HRP              0.33%

2013 was very bad for the Center-Left bloc and YP win the third seat instead of the DPJ candidate.
 The YP incumbent winner has a DPJ background and can best be described as a centrist feminist despite running for YP.  She clearly lost a bunch of Third Pole PR vote to LDP and KP despite winning even as she pulled in some Center-Left PR votes.  After YP imploded the YP winner eventually joined HP and stayed with HP after DPP split from HP despite the fact that the rump HP has become a very hard Right Third Pole party.

In 2016 things returned to normal and it was
LDP           29.19% elected  (incumbent)
DP             21.98% elected  (incumbent)
KP             20.87% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            15.81%
ORA            7.42%
PJK             3.83%
HRP            0.89%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       48.31%
Center-Left 25.43%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole   10.66%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            13.94%
NPB             1.16%
HRP             0.50%

The DP candidate lost Center-Left PR votes to both LDP/KP as well as JCP even as the DP candidate was elected.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.01%
Center-Left 43.06% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.74% (JRP)
JCP              8.73%
HRP             0.46%

The 2019 battle will see a LDP KP clearly winning a seat each.  Even though the Center-Left tends to under-perform the Center-Left PR vote DCP most likely will win a seat as well.  The last seat will be a battle between the YP incumbent elected in 2013 running for HP and the JCP.   It is not clear if DPP will nominate a candidate and if they did then it will become a 3 way battle for the 4th seat.  In fact if that were to take place LDP might nominate a second candidate to take advantage of the opposition split to make the battle for the 4th seat a 4 way battle.  As it is with Third Pole PR support falling a lot since 2013 you have the give the advantage to win the 4th seat to JCP given their relativity strong position in 埼玉(Saitama) and their track record of outperforming the JCP PR vote.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 10, 2018, 07:55:03 pm
The last Northern Japan battleground prefecture is 福島(Fukushima.).  In 2013 福島(Fukushima) was made a 1- member district from a 2- member district.

In 2013 it was
LDP            56.59% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ            28.15%  (incumbent)
JCP              9.05%
SDP             4.19%
HRP             1.15%
Minor           0.87%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        49.16%
Center-Left  27.09% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    14.50% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              8.92%
HRP             0.33%

Both the LDP and DPJ candidates were incumbents from 2007 when it was a 2- member district.  LDP clearly outperformed the LDP-KP PR vote share and attracted a good part of the Third Pole PR vote.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             50.50%  elected  (incumbent)
LDP           47.24%   (incumbent)
HRP             2.25%
 
While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.78%
Center-Left 33.94%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     9.37%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            10.45%
NPB             0.90%
HRP             0.56%

Both the LDP and DP candidates were incumbent from the 2010 election when it was a 2- member district.  Again the LDP candidate was above to perform above the LDP-KP PR vote and attract some Third Pole PR vote although it was not enough to beat back the DP candidate.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       43.02%
Center-Left 44.59% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     4.12% (JRP PJK)
JCP              7.77%
HRP             0.51%

In 2019 even if the Center-Left and JCP can consolidate around a common candidate (most likely someone of DPP background) the fact that LDP tends to outperform the LDP-KP PR vote share and that the LDP candidate will be the lone incumbent means LDP should have the edge.  Of course if the united opposition can nominate a high quality candidate, like a possible ex-DPJ MP, then the race could tilt toward the opposition.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 10, 2018, 04:54:09 pm
山形(Yamagata) is another 1- member district in Northern Japan that is a battleground.  

In 2013 it was
LDP            48.22% elected
GW            44.55%  (incumbent)
JCP              5.96%
HRP             1.27%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       50.86%
Center-Left  30.60% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    12.15% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              6.06%
HRP             0.32%

Here the GW incumbent (who was elected in 2007 as DPJ but then formed GW in 2012) was fairly popular and drove the LDP candidate to below the LDP-KP PR vote in a losing effort.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the same GW incumbent defeated in 2013 but now running as a pro-DP independent.
Ind(DP)     59.05%  elected  (ex-MP)
LDP           38.34%
HRP             2.16%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       54.27%
Center-Left 37.16%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.16%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              7.60%
NPB             1.62%
HRP             0.79%

The pro-DP ex-incumbent from 2013 won in a landslide on a wave of the personal vote and the anti-TPP tide.  The LDP candidate way under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote.  

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.51%
Center-Left 43.63% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.62% (JRP PJK)
JCP              5,83%
HRP             0.41%

While the popular opposition candidate of 2013 and 2016 will not be running in 2019, as long as the Center-Left and JCP can agree to back a common candidate the common opposition candidate should have the edge even if the LDP incumbent manages to match the performance of the LDP-KP PR vote.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish snap election, June 2018 on: August 10, 2018, 04:07:27 pm
It seems there is going to be a very significant economic downturn in Turkey soon.   That does not seem avoidable. 
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish snap election, June 2018 on: August 10, 2018, 04:01:33 pm
The TRY crisis hitting meltdown point which is made worse by US-Turkey standoff.    Again shows the wisdom of  Erdoğan  calling the election early and getting it out of the way.  Of course the US-Turkey standoff is most likely made worse by a  Erdoğan  strategy of shifting the blame of economic woes to come on US sanctions when it fact it is a result of policies of his own making.  Again well played by  Erdoğan.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 10, 2018, 07:10:04 am
宮城(Miyagi) is a 1- member district since 2016 from a 2- member district when it became a 1- member district battleground.

In 2013 it was
LDP            44.71% elected  (incumbent)
YP              23.35% elected
DPJ            22.81%  (incumbent)
JCP              8.11%
HRP             1.02%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       46.12%
Center-Left 20.97% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   24.09%  (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              8.53%
HRP             0.30%

District vote mostly matches the PR vote.  LDP under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote by a small margin.  The YP winner went to PFG/PJK after YP imploded in 2014 and recently joined LDP.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             51.10%  elected  (incumbent)
LDP           46.98%   (incumbent)
HRP             1.92%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       50.10%
Center-Left 32.07%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.11%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              9.99%
NPB             1.06%
HRP             0.69%

Here both the LDP and DP candidates were incumbents from 2010 when the district was a 2- member district so the LDP did not have an incumbency advantage and clearly under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote  which also included the anti-TPP wave.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.64%
Center-Left 39.89% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     5.59% (JRP PJK)
JCP              7.44%
HRP             0.66%

The YP turned LDP incumbent will run under the LDP PR list clearing the LDP incumbent from 2013 to run for re-election.   Even taking into account LDP's track record here of under-performing the LDP-KP vote, the 2013 and 2016 results had opposition incumbents while in 2019 it will be a LDP incumbent so you have to give the LDP the edge.  Of course it is possible that the opposition might recruit a key ex-DPJ MP to run as a DPP candidate which could swing the race away from LDP.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 09, 2018, 10:27:07 pm
岩手(Iwate) should go LP since this is Ozawa territory but the LDP always have a chance in any 1- member district.

In 2013 it was
PLP rebel    39.71% elected  (incumbent)
LDP            26.35%
PLP            14.86%
DPJ            10.12%
JCP              7.59%
HRP             1.36%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       41.97%
Center-Left 36.71% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   11.66%  (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              9.10%
HRP             0.55%

The incumbent PLP rebel who was with Ozawa for years ran and pulled in some LDP and Third Pole votes in addition to some Center-Left votes to win in a multi-polar race.  The PLP rebel later joined LDP in 2016.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the de facto PLP candidate
Ind(PLP)     53.34%  elected
LDP            41.04%
HRP             5.62%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       43.51%
Center-Left 35.79%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.73%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             11.24%
NPB             1.30%
HRP             1.42%

The LDP lost votes relative to the LDP-KP PR vote which partly is because of anti-TPP wave but like 2013 LDP seems to under-perform the LDP-KP PR vote.   Three seems to be both high anti-LDP and anti-Ozawa sentiment which mean a very high vote share for the HRP candidate.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       40.11%
Center-Left 47.17% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.32% (JRP PJK)
JCP              8.31%
HRP             0.66%

As long as JCP and the rest of the Center-Left backs the LP candidate should win.  The ex-PLP now LDP incumbent might outperform perhaps the LDP-KP PR vote now the anti-TPP wave is over but that is most likely not enough to defeat LP.  Ozawa's LP should continues to rule 岩手(Iwate).
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 09, 2018, 11:48:05 am
青森(Aomori) is very likely a LDP win but the opposition won here in 2016 so it makes sense to at least be on the list of battleground.  This is a 1- seat district which went opposition in 2016 due to the anti-TPP wave.

In 2013 it was
LDP            51.33% elected
PLP            15.00%  (incumbent)
YP              12.47%
Ind(DPJ)     10.41%
JCP              9.48%
HRP             1.31%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       54.68%
Center-Left 19.93% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   15.49%  (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              9.35%
HRP             0.55%

So there were some LDP-KP PR voter defection to the various Center-Left candidates.  The PLP candidate was the incumbent so that was part of the reason.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP canddiate
DP              49.19%  elected
LDP            47.88%   (incumbent)
HRP             2.93%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       53.19%
Center-Left 30.45%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     5.55%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              8.92%
NPB             1.10%
HRP             0.80%

LDP-KP PR vote clearly flowed to the DP candidate as well as some protest votes to HRP.  The anti-TPP sentiment in the farm vote was a significant reason for this.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       49.89%
Center-Left 37.68% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.38% (JRP PJK)
JCP              8.31%
HRP             0.74%

So in theory given the track record of LDP under-performing the LDP-KP PR vote a united Grand alliance (Center-Left + JCP) candidate could win using the 2017 PR numbers.   On the other hand the LDP will have an incumbent running and without the anti-TPP wave of 2016 most likely LDP should still have the upper hand.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 09, 2018, 06:50:58 am
First battleground prefecture is 北海道(Hokkaido) where it used to have 2 seats per Upper House election cycle but have moved to 3 in 2016.  With 2 it is easy, it will be LDP followed by the main Center-Left party.  With 3 北海道(Hokkaido) has enough of an anti-LDP lean to make the 3rd seat up in the air.

In 2013 when it was 2 seats the results were
LDP          37.70% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ          24.36% elected  (incumbent)
NPD         14.70%
JCP          11.35%
YP            10.92%
HRP           0.97%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.41%
Center-Left 20.44% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   12.34%  (JRP YP)
NPD           11.73%  (NPD is Third Pole but they are 北海道(Hokkaido) based so I split them out)
JCP            10.76%
HRP             0.33%

So some LDP-KP PR vote (mostly the KP vote) went over to DPJ and NPD (more likely the LDP PR vote)

In 2016 NDP did not run and mostly endorsed LDP
LDP           25.47% elected  (incumbent)
DP             22.00% elected  (incumbent)
DP             19.29% elected
LDP           18.96% (endorsed by NPD but lost)
JCP             9.41%
PJK             1.34%
NPB            1.14%
LDP rebel    1.05%
HRP            0.83%
DP rebel      0.51%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.23%
Center-Left 34.03%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     5.38%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            11.44%
NPB             1.45%
HRP             0.57%

It seems there was some Third Pole PR vote that went to both LDP and DP.  Taking this into account it seems like 2013 some of the LDP-KP PR vote (most likely the KP PR vote) defected to DP.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       39.84%
Center-Left 36.27% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     2.76% (JRP)
NPD             8.37% (NPD is Third Pole but they are 北海道(Hokkaido) based so I split them out)
JCP              8.51%
HRP             0.52%

For 2019 the 2 2013 incumbents are likely to run.  1 is LDP and the other is an ex-DPJ independent but has a DCP lean so most likely will run a de jure or de facto DCP.  JCP will run a candidate of course but will have fairly low chance of getting into the top 3.  It is clear LDP will run another candidate to try to win 3rd seat.  DCP will most likely want to do the same.    Outstanding issues are  a) will DPP also try to run a candidate which will doom the second DCP candidate or can DCP work otu a deal with DPP for DPP to stand down?
b) will NPD run a candidate which is more likely to harm the second LDP candidate but will depend on the NPD cadndidate
c) how will the 2017 NPD PR vote flow in 2019.  In 2017 it seems the NPD PR vote actually split their support in the district vote between the LDP and the opposition.

Given the historic 北海道(Hokkaido) LDP under-performance relative to the LDP-KP PR, the 2017 record of the NPD PR vote to split their support in the district vote and making the assumption that DCP and DPP can work out a deal it seems more likely then not that DCP wins the 3rd seat to make the result LDP DCP DCP.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 09, 2018, 06:26:41 am
While parties like the LDP are announcing renomination of existing incumbents in the 2019 Upper House race the full list of candidates, especially on the opposition, will not be known until months from now.  But one can still look at some historical stats of key battleground prefectures to get a sense what is likely going to take place.

We do this by looking at the 2013 and 2016 Upper House results as well as the PR vote of 2013 2016 Upper House and 2017 Lower House grouped party type (LDP-KP, Center-Left, Third Pole, and JCP) to get a sense of if LDP-KP tend to over or under perform their PR vote in the prefecture in question in 2013 and 2016 followed by using the 2017 PR vote share result to get a sense of what the likely strengths of different blocs in 2019 is likely to be.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: August 08, 2018, 11:33:13 am
Okinawa's anti-base governor Takeshi Onaga (翁長 雄志) just pass away.  This is a big blow to the anti-LDP bloc in  Okinawa.  He was up for re-election in Dec 2018 and given the anti-base sentiment should be able to win re-election.  Now the anti-base bloc will have to come up with a candidate that can unite all the anti-base forces for the Dec 2018 governor race.  LDP now has a chance to recapture the governorship in Dec.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian presidential election, 31.03.2019 on: August 08, 2018, 10:57:31 am
For Ukraine I am usually pro-Putin/Russia.  So I guess OB's Yuri Boyko is my guy in this race.  He will not win of course. Putin took away the most reliable pro-Russia region in Ukraine, Crimea.  Yuri Boyko would need those votes to have a chance and clearly Crimea will not be voting in this election. 
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