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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana on: Today at 10:46:33 am
News Nation polls for MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh

MP (BJP and INC neck to neck)

BJP      111
INC     109
Others   10



Rajasthan (INC clear lead)

INC    115
BJP      73
Others  12



Chhattisgarh (small BJP lead and possible hung assembly)

BJP         45
INC        38
JCC-BSP   5
Others     2



If these poll results are accurate then given the fact that the incumbent party tends to over-poll the INC should win with ease in Rajasthan  and get narrow wins in MP and Chhattisgarh.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana on: Today at 10:27:30 am
One thing that will get in the way of INC in MP is that it has no clear face for CM candidate.   In theory INC has two realistic CM candidates.  First is Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia who is the nephew of beleaguered Rajasthan BJP CM Vasundhara Raje

And the other is veteran INC MP leader Kamal Nath

 
It seems Rahul Gandhi favors Jyotiraditya Scindia while the INC old guards what circles around Sonia Gandhi prefers Kamal Nath.  I guess it will come down to if INC wins which one of the two is seen as getting more credit for the victory.  Also if INC has a very strong election night across the board that tends to strength Rahul Gandhi's hand and he will have a free hand to put in Jyotiraditya Scindia despite the view in the INC hierarchy that "it is not his turn yet."

The IndiaTV-CNX  poll that came out recently had

BJP   128
INC    85
BSP     8
Others 9


And had support for CM at

BJP CM Chouhan  41%
INC Scindia          22%
INC Nath             18%


Pre-election polls tend to be skewed in favor of the incumbent party and for the two INC CM candidates support to add up to around the same as the sitting CM means that BJP will be in for a tough fight.  It dose seems that Scindia  and Nath are equally matched in terms of popular support.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018 on: Today at 10:14:33 am
MDA poll

Bolsonaro    48.8%
Haddad       36.7%

Normalized to Bolsonaro 57-43 victory.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana on: Today at 08:28:05 am
A review of the election history of MP and Chhattisgarh leads to the following trends/conclusions.

1) MP has a heavy BJP lean but is fairly elastic
2) INC is stronger in Chhattisgarh but the state is fairly inelastic

Both trends seems to indicate that INC will have a shot at winning in both states.  INC's attempt to form a grand alliance have failed.  In many ways INC going it alone is a prerequisite to a 2019 LS election grand alliance since the 2018 assembly elections will test out the INC BSP SP relative strengths in non-UP Northern India so they can negotiate a possible anti-BJP alliance in UP and other parts of Northern India. 

In MP it seems that it will be BJP vs INC vs BSP vs SP-GGP
In Chhattisgarh  it seems that it will be BJP vs INC vs JCC-BSP vs SP-GGP

It seems that BSP and SP-GGP are on the downswing in MP so the election there will be bipolar.  In Chhattisgarh it is not clear how strong INC rebel Ajit Jogi's JCC will be and how much JCC will eat into the INC tribal vote and potentially into the BJP tribal vote.   I suspect it will end up a dud given the historical bipolar nature of Chhattisgarh.

INC is counting on the following chart for it to win.  A review of MP/Chhattisgarh assembly election results when considering the center and state incumbant party yields the following chart:

             Center             State
Year     Incumbent      Incumbent        Winner
1972       INC                 INC                 INC
1977       JNP                 INC                 JNP
1980       INC                 JNP                 INC
1985       INC                 INC                 INC
1990       JD                   INC                 BJP
1993       INC                 BJP                 INC
1998       BJP                 INC                 INC
2003       BJP                 INC                 BJP
2008       INC                 BJP                 BJP
2013       INC                 BJP                 BJP
2018       BJP                 BJP                 Huh

So this assembly election in MP and Chhattisgarh will be the first even that the BJP will face anti-incumbency at BOT the federal and state level.   The only time since the 1960s that a party has won facing both federal AND state anti-incumbency would be INC in 1972 and 1985.  Both years are peaks of INC power.  1972 was the Indira Gandhi wave over her victory over Pakistan in 1971 and Rajiv Gandhi in 1985 over the sympathy wave of Indira Gandhi's assassination.   BJP's only weapon now is Modi who is popular but does not seem compatible to INC 1972 or INC 1985.

Of course the flip side is if INC cannot win in MP and  Chhattisgarh then its decline since 2013 might be seen as terminal and it will be out of the running in 2019 LS elections and worse, lose its position is the main opposition for all other anti-BJP parties to rally around.    If BJP wins in MP and Chhattisgarh then it cannot be beaten in 2019 LS elections.  If INC wins in MP and Chhattisgarh then BJP will most likely still win in 2019 but would be beatable.  The key for INC is not 2019 but 2024 when a strong INC led by Rahul Gandhi could win back national party.  The 2018 assembly elections are about INC's ability to stay relevant in 2019 and gives it a ticket to win in 2024. 
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana on: Today at 08:08:14 am
The INC led UPA government at the center after its re-election in 2009 ran into all sorts of problems with corruption scandals which weighed down the popularity of INC across the board.  INC was especially hurt in Chhattisgarh  when in May 2013 the entire senior leadership of INC with the exception of former INC CM Ajit Jogi were killed in a Naxal attack.  While this generated some sympathy for the INC it was not organized to take advantage of it.   As a result the 2013 assembly elections went to the BJP given the relative popularity of BJP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan in MP and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh.

MP 2013 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         229              58              37.18%

INC rebel                        2               1.27%

BJP           230             165             45.74%

BJP rebel                        1               0.54%

BSP          227                4               6.41%

SP            164                0               1.22%

GGP           63                0               1.02%


Chhattisgarh 2013 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            90              39              41.57%

BJP            90              49              42.34%

BJP rebel                       1                0.88%

BSP           90                1                4.41%

GGP          44                0                1.62%

CMM         54                0                 1.78%

The return of BJS in MP clearly helped the BJP while the decline of BSP from 2008 should have helped INC but there seems to be a swing away from INC toward BJP due to the unpopularity of the INC at the center.   In Chhattisgarh  INC had tried to sideline  former INC CM Ajit Jogi but had to rely on him after its main senior leadership were killed in May 2013.  The result shows that Ajit Jogi had limited appeal beyond the core INC tribal vote and could not expand out into the BJP caste Hindu vote.

Of course the BJP victory in 2013 was only a buildup of the great Modi wave of 2014 which was a combination of a surge for Modi and the consolidation of the anti-INC vote behind the BJP (most of the time) in the 2014 LS elections.  The result was a massive BJP victory over INC in both MP and Chhattisgarh.

2014 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               2               35.35%

BJP            29              27               54.76%

BSP           29               0                  3.85%

AAP           29               0                  1.19%


2014 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 1              39.09%

BJP           10               10               49.66%

BSP           10                0                2.44%

AAP           10                0                1.17%

In Chhattisgarh   INC actually gained vote share relative to 2009 partly due to the fall of the BSP vote share but was still swamped by the consolidation of the anti-INC vote behind BJP.  In MP the BJP saw a vote share landslide not seen since the 1984 LS INC landslide victory.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana on: October 21, 2018, 02:11:21 pm
With INC led government installed at the center the MP and Chhattisgarh BJP governments faced re-election in 2008.  While both faced anti-incumbency and in MP BJP faced the threat of former BJP CM Uma Bharti's BJS splinter, there were also anti-incumbency directed toward the INC government at the center so the result was the INC making gains in terms of vote share but not enough to dislodge the two BJP state governments.

MP 2008 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         229              71              32.60% (NCP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        2                0.81%

BJP           230             143              37.79%

BJP rebel                        1                0.66%

BJS           201               5                 4.71% (BJP splinter)

BSP           228               7                8.97%

SP            187                1                1.99%

GGP           88                0                1.69%


Chhattisgarh 2008 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           90              38               39.12% (NCP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0                 0.94%

BJP             90               50               40.32%

BJP rebel                        0                 0.80%

BSP            90                2                 6.11%

GGP            54                0                 1.59%

CPI             21                0                 1.12%

In Chhattisgarh INC learned its lesson from NCP splitting the vote in 2003 and got NCP to join it in an alliance.  Atlas BJP CM Raman Singh was fairly popular and able to blunt the combined assault of INC-NCP with a narrow win.   What also hurt INC was the BSP surge which in part spurred by the BSP victory in UP in 2007 and drove Dalit votes toward BSP given the proximity of UP and MP/Chhattisgarh.

The 2009 LS election saw INC and allies gain relative to BJP and saw INC make gains in MP but not so much in inelastic Chhattisgarh.

2009 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            28              12               40.14%

BJP            29              16               43.45%

BSP            28               1                 5.85%

SP              18               0                 2.83%


2009 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 1              37.31%

BJP           10                11             45.03%

BJP rebel                        0               3.06%

BSP          11                  0               4.52%

GGP           5                  0               0.70%

BJP rebel Uma Bharti's BJS went nowhere in 2009 LS election and merged her party back into the BJP fold by 2011.

7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Rank G7 Leaders Currently on: October 21, 2018, 08:10:41 am
1. Trump
2. May
3. Macron
4. Conte
5. Abe
6. Merkel
7. Trudeau
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018 on: October 19, 2018, 02:26:57 pm
Valid votes

Bolsonaro 59%
Haddad 41%

Rejection

Haddad 54%
Bolsonaro 41%

95% of Bolsonaro said they are sure of their vote and 5 % said they might change their it.

89% of Haddad voters are sure of their vote and 10% said they might change their it.

67% of all voters think the debates are very important but 76% wouldn't change their vote because of them. 73% think Bolsonaro should attend the debates.
This race is over.

If there are no debates and no blow-back for Bolsonaro  then given these rejection rates for Haddad I find it hard to see how Haddad wins.  I still think the final result will be a lot closer than these polls suggest.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018 on: October 19, 2018, 02:24:52 pm
How did Bolsonaro get away not attending any debates?  Is it still based on doctor's orders?

It isn't based of any order from doctors, it was his choice. He is already way up ahead on the polls, going to the debate doesn't make sense, Lula also skipped a lot of debates back in 2006. Bolsonaro keeps saying he won't debate with a puppet.

So the political cultural in Brazil is that no debating just because you are ahead not lead to political blow-back ?  If a popular USA incumbent who is well ahead in the polls refuse to debate then his or her poll ratings will fall quite a bit in my view.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018 on: October 19, 2018, 05:39:35 am
How did Bolsonaro get away not attending any debates?  Is it still based on doctor's orders?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018 on: October 19, 2018, 05:38:34 am
DataPoder360 poll has Bolsonaro ahead 57 to 31 which maps to 64 to 36 when filtering out undecided or null. 
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: October 18, 2018, 10:01:11 am
Latest ZDP poll on Hesse (comparsion to 2013 results)

CDU    26
Green  22
SPD    20
AfD     12
FDP      8
Linke    8

Note sure CDU-Green will make it past majority.  Of course if that is out then it will have to be Green-SPD-Linke. 


If this is the result then it's Traffic light or Jamaica. But as was said above me, if the SPD are below the greens, then Traffic light is almost an impossibly. Why would the SPD sign up to be a minor partner under the greens? Just makes their decline nationally look even worse.

But after 2011 Baden-Württemberg  election SPD did accept becoming the junior partner of the Greens since they had less seats.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana on: October 18, 2018, 08:03:26 am
After the 1999 LS elections MP was officially broken up into Mp and Chhattisgarh.  Digvijaya Singh continued as the INC CM of MP while INC selected tribal leader Ajit Jogi to be the CM of Chhattisgarh.


Both MP and Chhattisgarh had their assembly elections in late 2013.  In both states INC had to deal with anti-incumbency.  In Chhattisgarh INC splinter NCP and other INC rebels sunk INC in a very close race while in MP Digvijaya Singh tried to run a BJP-lite campaign and was soundly defeated. 

MP 2003 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         230              38              31.68% (RPI was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        2                1.07%

NCP          105                1                1.27% (INC splinter)

BJP           230            173              42.50%

JD(U)         36                1                0.55%

BSP          157                2                7.26%

SP+          162                7               3.79%

GGP+         62                2               2.12%

RSD+        56                 2               1.38% (backward caste based)

CPI+         26                 1               0.56%


Chhattisgarh 2003 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           90              37               36.71%

INC rebel                        0                 0.91%

NCP            89                1                 7.02%

BJP             90              50                39.26%

BJP rebel                        0                 1.14%

BSP            54               2                  4.45%

SP              52               0                  0.95%

GGP           41               0                  1.60%

CPI             18               0                 1.08%

BJP victories in both MP and Chhattisgarh  brought in BJP firebrand Uma Bharti as CM of MP

and upper caste and low key Raman Singh as CM of Chhattisgarh 


Buoyed by the assembly election victories led the BJP to call for 2004 elections 6 month early which while BJP did well in non-UP Northern India was soundly beaten by INC elsewhere leading to a INC led UPA government at the center.  In MP and Chhattisgarh the BJP did well as expected but it was not enough to help BJP win re-election at the center.

2004 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               4               34.07%

BJP            29              25              48.13%

BSP+         29               0                4.88% (NCP was part of BSP+)

SP             29               0                 3.20%

GGP          15                0                3.05%


2004 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 1              40.16%

BJP           11                10              47.78%

BSP          11                  0               4.54%

SP            10                  0               1.10%

To protest an INC led bloc from choosing Sonia Gandhi as PM (a role she later renounced) MP CM Uma Bharti resigned plunging the BJP into crisis.    After a year of a stand in, the BJP eventually choose Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the CM of MP who turned out to be a much effective political operator than Uma Bharti


As a result of this crisis Uma Bharti fell out with BJP and formed her own BJP splinter BJS.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: October 18, 2018, 06:57:42 am
Latest ZDP poll on Hesse (comparsion to 2013 results)

CDU    26
Green  22
SPD    20
AfD     12
FDP      8
Linke    8

Note sure CDU-Green will make it past majority.  Of course if that is out then it will have to be Green-SPD-Linke. 
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana on: October 17, 2018, 07:01:20 am
My Dad has also had this criticism of Modi but he also said that other factions of  BJP are worse and the INC is just horrible in every way so Modi is the best India’s got at the moment

The party I would support in India which would be the INC Right-wing splinter Swatantra Party of the 1960s no longer exists.  SWA declined and then merged into BLD which in turn merged into JNP along with BJS which is proto-BJP.  When JNP broke up in 1980 what is left of the old SWA mostly joined up with BJP.  So I would count myself as the tiny SWA faction of BJP. 

The way I see it for me in India it is: Manmohan Singh > Vajpayee >  Modi > Sonia/Rahul Gandhi

Of course all of them are trapped by the Indian political tradition of populism.  In the 1989-2009 period over 80% of the state and national government are defeated in re-election campaigns.  So what is the point of long term economic reform.  Just steal as much as you can while you are in power which you will lose regardless of what you do. 

In fact if I was a leader of a sizable opposition party at the state level during this period, my main campaign plank would be
1) Free power for all farmers
2) Loan forgiveness for all farmers
3) Free laptops for all students in school (before the 2000s it would be free school lunch)

As for who would pay for this, worry about it later and do a half ass job implementing these promises using your cronies to route cash to yourself and your political friends since you are doomed to lose the next election regardless.  Opposition parties that promise something like this seems to win most of the time.  Of course the former ruling party now in opposition will just promise the same for the next election which you will lose.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana on: October 17, 2018, 06:47:46 am
After the BJP came into power at the center in the aftermath of the 1998 LS elections the anti-incumbency table got turned on BJP.   INC MP CM Digvijaya Singh was able to turn this to his advantage and was able to win the 1998 MP assembly election despite anti-incumbency at the state level.  

MP 1998 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         230             126              41.03%  (RPI was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         4                2.13%

BJP            230              83              38.98%

BJP rebel                         0                0.93%

BSP           121                8                6.29%

JD             111                1                2.30%

JD rebel                          2                 0.44%

SP               87               4                 2.14%

CPI+          20                0                 0.85% (CPM was part of CPI+)


Chhattisgarh 1998 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           90              48               40.78%

INC rebel                        3                 3.31%

BJP             90              36               40.12%

BJP rebel                        0                 0.48%

BSP            49                3                 5.76%

CPI            18                 0                 1.18%

GGP           43                1                 1.92%

CMM          13                0                 0.73%


Despite the INC victory the BJP has pretty much pulled even with INC in Chhattisgarh which pretty much turned this proto-state from a lean INC state to a total tossup at the state level going forward.

Soon after the MP assembly elections the BJP government led by  Vajpayee fell due ti the defection of TN's AIADMK.  This led to the 1999 LS election where the sympathy wave for the way Vajpayee was pulled down propelled the BJP and allies to an absolute majority.  In MP it was mostly a wash relative to 1998 as the honeymoon period for the recently re-election INC government was able to blunt the  Vajpayee  wave.

1999 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               8               44.11%

BJP            29              21              46.11%

BSP           20               0                5.34%

SP+           17               0                2.05%


1999 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 3              43.36%

BJP           11                  8             47.90%

BSP           7                  0               4.93%

CPI            1                  0               0.89%

The polarization of the  Vajpayee  wave meant that the BSP vote was squeezed.  What is problematic for the INC is that the vote lost by BSP seems to have gone evenly to BJP and INC.  The reason why INC lost in MP and Chhattisgarh LS elections in 1996 and 1998 was because of the INC votes lost to BSP.  With BSP on the decline the INC should have regained the upper hand.  The fact it did not means that both MP and  Chhattisgarh  are trending BJP.  INC will not win the LS contests in either MP and  Chhattisgarh again as of 2014 LS elections.


17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Updated predictions- How many House seats do you think Dems will pick up? on: October 17, 2018, 05:30:17 am
Around 30
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you vote on these referenda that will appear on my ballot? on: October 16, 2018, 11:24:01 am
No to all of them.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana on: October 16, 2018, 07:01:36 am
Are you a BJP supporter

Yes, mostly through process of elimination.  But I would call myself as a member of the anti-Modi faction of BJP.

Why arent the other factions more economically populist and socially conservative.


While I hoped Modi would be the Reagan or Thatcher of India , I just dont think that possible so he's the best India's got at the moment.

I think Modi is mostly talk and very little action.  Of course he is contained by the economically populist and socially conservative factions of the BJP.  Talks of economic reform mostly stayed talk.  A lot of the Modi reforms were planned under the UPA government.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India Assembly elections 2018- Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana on: October 16, 2018, 06:58:42 am
The 1996 LS elections saw significant anti-incumbent surge which hit INC along with an pro-Gandhi clan faction splinter party AIIC led by former MP INC CM Arjun Singh.  The result was the INC losing ground to BJP and leading to a hung parliament.

1996 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               4               28.94%

AIIC+         24               2                 7.25% (INC splinter MPVC was part of AIIC+)

BJP            28              21               42.82%

BSP           21               2                  8.45%

JD               7               0                  1.40%


1996 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 4               36.61%

INC rebel                       1                 2.00%

AIIC         10                 0                 3.31%

BJP          11                 6                37.29%

CPI+         5                  0                 2.83% (JD was part of CPI+)

Given that AIIC had its core in MP this is where AIIC did the most damage to INC.  The BSP surge also ate into the INC dalit vote base.  Despite this INC's strength with tribal area led it to fight BJP to a draw in Chhattisgarh. 

The 1996 LS election led to a JD+ government at the center with INC support to lock out BJP.  This arrangement did not last long and mid-term LS elections were held in 1998.  With Sonia Gandhi taking an active role in INC the pro-Gandhi AIIC rebellion ended and returned to the fold.  The 1998 LS elections saw a surge for BJP in Northern India which washed out the effect of AIIC coming back into INC.

1998 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               6               38.81%

BJP            29              23               46.17%

BSP           26                0                9.17%

JD             15                0                1.48%

SP+          12                 0               1.05%


1998 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 4               41.10%

BJP           11                 7               44.46%

BSP            9                 0                 7.34%

GGP            6                0                 2.06% (tribal Chhattisgarh regionalism)

CPI            3                 0                  1.83%

The worrying trend for INC here is the rise of BSP which took away enough INC Dalit votes to give the BJP an upper hand even against an fairly united INC.  This will be a harbinger for the future.  As it is overall BJP led alliance came close to a majority as the JD vote collapsed.  JD ally TDP switched sides to give the BJP a government at the center for the first time in its history. 
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: October 15, 2018, 11:49:58 am
Bavaria’s Christian Social Union party’s campaign strategy flopped. Here’s what this means for Germany — and Europe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/15/bavarias-christian-social-union-partys-campaign-strategy-flopped-heres-what-this-means-for-germany-and-europe/?utm_term=.2603635a5576

Has this guy looked at the 2017 Federal election results for Bavaria and compared them to last night

            2017        2018
CSU      38.8          37.2      -1.6
SPD      15.3           9,7       -5.6
Green     9.8         17.5      +7.7
FDP      10.2           5.1       -5.1
AfD       12.4         10.2      -2.2
FW         2.7         11.6      +8.9
Linke      6.1          3.2        -2.9
BP          0.8          2.1      +1.3
ÖDP       0.9           2.0      +1.1

CSU did reasonably well especially when FW was expected to do a lot better to grab Center-Right voters since in 2017 the 5% threshold meant the FW voter will vote tactically.  By the same logic Linke lost ground because the reverse logic relative to 2017 with respect to the 5% threshold.  SPD is the real loser here and you can argue FDP as well.  CSU strategy did not flop at all and in fact was an astounding success.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Market Megathread: Down Jones and Others in Turmoil (Under 24,000) on: October 15, 2018, 10:31:02 am
Another winner if this correction becomes longer lasting and significant would be hedge fund managers.  The post 2009 period has been a disaster for hedge fund managers, especially the last few years.  A simple 60/40 portfolio would have beaten most hedge funds in terms of return last few years.  Only the June-Sept 2015 correction seems to generate more risk-adjusted return of hedge investments versus the passive amateurish 60/40 portfolio.   The end of cheap money might actually breath life back into the hedge fund industry by giving them a chance to earn higher  risk-adjusted returns than the generic passive portfolio.   Does not matter that much for me as I rotate more and more into fixed income land where the end of cheap money cannot end soon enough.

You might find this slide show prepared by Gus Sauter at the Bogleheads conference a couple of weeks ago of interest. He basically documented that the bloom is off the alternative investment rose. Of particular interest is that there is now over a trillion dollars of "dry powder" in private equity funds, looking for an investment home, suggested that the future for private equity funds in particular will be rather grim as too much money chases too few good investment opportunities. The least oversaturated area in the world of alternative investments ((i.e. not stocks, bonds or the money market) is infrastructure investments, as spendthrift municipalities sell off their key assets like airports to raise cash to bail themselves out of unsustainable debt loads. Even some public highways are being sold off and converted into toll roads.

And thus the guru who runs the Yale University endowment fund, who became the alternative investment superstar when the Yale Endowment fund that he runs beat the market by a very substantial margin prior to the music stopping now says this:



I have been more or less doing that my entire investing life. These days I don't even look at my portfolio for months on end.

Yeah. I learned that the hard way.  When I got out into the real world in the mid 1990s I started with pretty high income right away so ended bunch of money to play with.  The impetuousness of youth in me tried to beat the market with some astounding great as well as disastrous results.  It all added up in a wash after the 2000-2002 market correction.  I pretty much missed out on the bull market in the late 1990s in the part of my portfolio that I actively managed.  I then noticed that my passive dollar cost average part of my portfolio did much better.  So after 2002 I mostly went into a passive dollar cost average investing mode with heavy use of ETFs.  But my arrogance of the 1995-2002 period meant I lost out on a boatload of money.   What I noticed is that "smarter" and "financially savvy" segment of my friends pretty much made the same mistake and made the same correction as I did.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Market Megathread: Down Jones and Others in Turmoil (Under 24,000) on: October 15, 2018, 09:52:11 am
Beware stagflation, when everyone loses!

All the more reason to raise fed fund rates aggressively to head off inflation.  Not what Trump wants but as much as I back Trump our interests here are not aligned. 
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Market Megathread: Down Jones and Others in Turmoil (Under 24,000) on: October 15, 2018, 09:50:59 am
Another winner if this correction becomes longer lasting and significant would be hedge fund managers.  The post 2009 period has been a disaster for hedge fund managers, especially the last few years.  A simple 60/40 portfolio would have beaten most hedge funds in terms of return last few years.  Only the June-Sept 2015 correction seems to generate more risk-adjusted return of hedge investments versus the passive amateurish 60/40 portfolio.   The end of cheap money might actually breath life back into the hedge fund industry by giving them a chance to earn higher  risk-adjusted returns than the generic passive portfolio.   Does not matter that much for me as I rotate more and more into fixed income land where the end of cheap money cannot end soon enough.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: October 15, 2018, 09:28:43 am
Why are FW so strong in Bavaria?  Is it related to Bavarian regionalism ?
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