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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexican Elections 2017-18 on: Today at 10:46:06 am
Reforma poll for NL (which is El Bronco's home state) Prez race

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       29%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           30%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     19%
El Bronco                              6%



NL is the second weakest state for MORENA in the 2015 Legislative elections (it got 2.6% in 2015).  For  AMLO to be neck-to-neck for first place shows the strength of AMLO this time around.  It seems even here the logic of tactical voting is coming into play for El Bronco who is down to 6% in his home state.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On on: June 17, 2018, 09:03:44 pm
Abe approval rating curve heading up.  His position for Sept 2018 LDP Prez election getting better and better.  There seems to be low support for Abe personally but support for the Abe Cabinet is heading up.  The fact that LDP MPs and local chapters will vote for LDP Prez gives Abe an edge since that vote is more about who can lead LDP to victory in 2019 Upper House.

3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish snap election, June 2018 on: June 17, 2018, 09:00:36 pm
In many ways Erdoğan calling an early election is a genius move.  There are all sorts of economic storm clouds on the horizon but currently the labor market is still robust.  But it is clear when the Turkey central bank raised interest rates from 8% to 13.6% earlier this month that 2019 will see a very significant economic slowdown.  And that is not all as TRY started falling again this week which means more action might be needed.  So to have the election in late 2019 would be a disaster for Erdoğan and AKP given the likely economic circumstances.  A early election avoids this problem while the average voter are still experiencing a fairly positive economic environment. 

Despite all of this, there could still be some kind of Erdogan-fatigue right now - which is strong enough this time to keep him below 50% in a runoff. A bit unlikely, but not totally out of question.

Anyway, I'd applaud the Turkish voters if they have the balls to vote him out.

Totally true.  I agree that whereas a couple of months ago it seemed  Erdoğan was going to win for show I can now see how he can lose.   My point is that no matter what he will do better in June 2018 vs Nov 2019 when the economic situation will be for sure a lot worse than today.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018 on: June 17, 2018, 08:58:43 pm
Mahathir was interviewed by the NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/14/world/asia/malaysia-mahathir-mohamad.html

Some interesting things he pointed out

Quote
...after his inauguration, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and his aides first entered the Malaysian government offices last month to find an alarming sight: oversize garbage bags filled with shredded documents, a snowstorm of loose papers on the floor, even half-consumed food left by former occupants in a hurry to get out.

Quote
...Lim Guan Eng, Malaysia’s new finance minister, found computers in which even the highest-ranking bureaucrats were locked out of certain accounts. In some cases, vital files were accessible only to a single person: Najib Razak

Quote
discovered that the country is in far worse financial shape than he and his allies had feared. The national debt, tallied at $170 billion by Mr. Najib’s administration, has been reassessed, along with other government liabilities, at $250 billion. That is 80 percent of Malaysia’s gross domestic product.

Quote
If Mr. Mahathir’s Alliance of Hope had not scored its surprise victory in the elections last month, Mr. Lim [new Finance Minister]said, “the nation would have become a basket case.”

It seems that BN was not expecting to lose the election ergo they had not time to cover up their tracks when Mahathir and gang showed up less than 48 hours after the election to take over.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish snap election, June 2018 on: June 15, 2018, 11:29:21 am
In many ways Erdoğan calling an early election is a genius move.  There are all sorts of economic storm clouds on the horizon but currently the labor market is still robust.  But it is clear when the Turkey central bank raised interest rates from 8% to 13.6% earlier this month that 2019 will see a very significant economic slowdown.  And that is not all as TRY started falling again this week which means more action might be needed.  So to have the election in late 2019 would be a disaster for Erdoğan and AKP given the likely economic circumstances.  A early election avoids this problem while the average voter are still experiencing a fairly positive economic environment. 
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018 on: June 15, 2018, 10:23:06 am
Sarawak 2013 Federal, 2016 Assembly and 2018 Federal election by Federal district type (Muslim Tribal, Christian Tribal, Chinese)  

Muslim Tribal           2013          2016         2018
PK/PH                    20.32%      14.10%     23.97%
BN                         78.60%      78.26%     70.51%
GS                      (part of PK)     5.06%       3.90%
PK/PH rebel              0.88%         NA             NA
BN rebel                    NA           2.50%       1.62%

In 2013 it was PK BN 0-12, 2016 PH BN 1-30, 2018 PH BN 0-12



Christian Tribal         2013          2016         2018
PK/PH                    30.62%      24.39%     42.47%
BN                         59.43%      62.66%     54.35%
GS                      (part of PK)     0.50%         NA
PK/PH rebel               NA            3.81%         NA
BN rebel                  9.40%        8.43%       2.82%

In 2013 it was PK BN 0-13, 2016 PH BN 2-33, 2018 PH BN BN rebel 5-7-1



Chinese                   2013          2016         2018
PK/PH                    59.16%      48.98%     64.94%
BN                         40.57%      47.02%     34.54%
GS                      (part of PK)       NA            NA
PK/PH rebel               NA            0.64%       0.33%
BN rebel                  0.07%        2.15%       0.13%

In 2013 it was PK BN 6-0, 2016 PH BN 7-9, 2018 PH BN 6-0


In 2016 PH was in chaos and lacked unity which turned off the PH base which did not turn out handing BN a massive landslide.  By 2019 PH was united and with PAS being seen as de facto allies of BN there were significant swing of the Christian Tribal vote toward PH gaining PH and BN rebels a bunch of seats in 2018.    The PH surge in seats in 2018 was based on Christian Tribal seats.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexican Elections 2017-18 on: June 15, 2018, 09:40:27 am
MXN rose after falling 1.2% yesterday as AMLO's campaign chief worked to calm investors anxious about some of his promises.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-14/mexico-s-obrador-will-work-to-calm-markets-campaign-chief-says

What is interesting is AMLO's campaign chief is Tatiana Clouthier who is a member of a key PAN family.  She is the daughter of the 1988 PAN candidate.  She broke with PAN years ago and is no with AMLO.  Her brother ran and won as a PAN rebel for the lower house in 2015 for Sinaloa and is now running as a PAN rebel for Sinaloa Senate.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: South Korean local elections, June 13 2018 on: June 14, 2018, 10:30:12 pm
Map of governor races from ROC media.

Blue is Democratic and Red is Liberty Korea



In Seoul Borough head it is


Governor details are





County Magistrate races relative to 2014


Main reason for the scale of the Center-Right defeat is obviously Moon's popularity but also that Liberty Korea was not able to form an alliance with the anti-Park splinter Bareunmirae Party which split the Center-Right vote even when  Bareunmirae Party is not running since the vote bases of the two Center-Right party was not able to mix.   The Center-Left vote was also split with the Justice Party but the Center-Left in ROK historically was always split while the Center-Right was always united.  If the Center-Right was more united they would still have been beaten but the scale of defeat would not as catastrophic.  It was always expected that it will take at least one if not two election cycles for the ROK Center-Right to recover from Park.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: June 14, 2018, 06:58:05 pm
Chinatimes (pro-Blue) poll for Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) has DPP incumbent way ahead

DPP Cheng(鄭文燦)   51.5%
KMT Chen(陳學聖)    24.9%

But due to the fundamentals of  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +5) having a pro-KMT lean especially at the local level the KMT is way ahead for City Assembly vote

KMT   35.1%
DPP   13.8%
NPP     1.0%



DPP incumbent should win the race with ease but KMT's strong fundamentals means that the KMT candidate could keep it close if there is a small KMT wave.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexican Elections 2017-18 on: June 14, 2018, 05:09:33 pm
Latest BNP Paribas report in Mexico elections. 

https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/r/2018_MX_Election_tracker_FEB.pdf?t=BGw_FyM5Pht0XnDj1C-wC&stream=true

A JP Morgan report indicates that
a) Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s focus in helping Morena candidates for Senate and lower house may explain renewed strength in his party in recent weeks, JPMorgan says in an emailed research report.
b) If PRI’s Jose Antonio Meade overtakes PAN-PRD’s Ricardo Anaya, he still won’t be able to catch Lopez Obrador, though the battle for second place will be important to maintaining a solid presence in Congress for either bloc
c) Morena likely to win 4-5 governorships, simple majority in lower house [I assume the governorship are Chiapas, Distrito Federal, Morelos, Tabasco with possible wins in Puebla
 and Veracruz so in my view it should be 4-6 governorships)
d) While a lot can still change, pragmatism is likely to dominate under Lopez Obrador, based on comments from people proposed for his cabinet

I work in the finance industry so I am more biased toward reading these reports even if their track record is not very good.

11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexican Elections 2017-18 on: June 14, 2018, 04:58:04 pm
Cuauhtémoc Blanco got elected in 2015 as mayor of  Cuernavaca on the PSD ticket.  I guess he has since defected to MORENA and his name plus the AMLO surge it seems have handed him the governorship.  I guess he has monkey branched his way to the top.  Impressive.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexican Elections 2017-18 on: June 14, 2018, 04:40:21 pm


Because of my interests and my own experience working in a public school in Mexico, I paid attention to their comments on education (and, even more specifically, whatever they said about English classes), and I can certify that none of them have any idea what they're talking about (except, maybe, Anaya, who kind of spoke some sense for once). AMLO's 'views' on education are particularly horrifying, especially since it's pretty clear he has no idea what he's talking about and buys into claims that the education reform is some sort of sordid neoliberal plot imposed by the IMF (when in reality the education reform is a whole bunch of nothing which had good intentions on paper but has amounted to jack squat in practice).
 

How interesting.  Any thoughts from you on the education reform EPN put in place? SNTE is up in arms over that and it seems is backing their ancient enemy AMLO just to overturn it.  Do you think AMLO will overturn those reforms if and when he gets into office ?
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you have voted? Mexico on: June 14, 2018, 11:56:00 am
2006: Roberto Madrazo (PRI)

Why on earth would you do such a thing?

Well, mostly voting against AMLO for discrediting elections and calling it rigged though I'll admit I'd that's with hindsight. Without hindsight I guess I might have voted AMLO, though I still wouldn't like his 2006 campaign much.

In 2018 I'd finally give up and vote AMLO as the other 2 don't really seem good but I would vote something else for Congress (maybe PRI)

My specific point was more about Roberto Madrazo, who is basically a cartoon villain; a sleazy priista dinosaur who obtained everything in his life through blatant cheating, fraud, deception (even the 2007 Berlin Marathon!).

Sure... but what you are then saying is that an anti-AMLO Center-Left voter should just abstain. 

On a side note I always found cheating on 2007 Berlin Marathon to be quite funny since some of the times Madrazo achieve for certain segments broke world records.  How can he believe that he cannot get caught.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: June 13, 2018, 09:22:06 pm
Ettoday poll for Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)

KMT Shu(徐榛蔚)        44.4%
DPP Liu(劉曉玫)          19.0%


Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20) is one of the most pro-Blue counties although recently DPP have been gaining ground here, especially with the non-Aborigine vote.  Shu(徐榛蔚) is the wife of the pro-KMT independent incumbent and seems set to win.   
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish snap election, June 2018 on: June 13, 2018, 02:55:33 pm

Aren't İYİ and the Felicity Party in an alliance with the CHP, so that they would benefit from the new law as well, in the same way the MHP would?

In any case case İnce seems to be a strong candidate who can attract many voters, mainly from İYİ of course.

Good point.  I forgot about that.  So no risk of İYİ falling below 10%.  So the party at risk is really HDP.  It seems the opposition alliance is CHP-İYİ-SP-DP with the later two having a fairly small voting base. 
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish snap election, June 2018 on: June 13, 2018, 10:36:01 am
I think a major risk to Erdoğan-AKP would be the AKP alliance with MHP would turn off Kurdish voters.  If Erdoğan-AKP have an below average election night this factor could make the difference between victory and defeat for Erdoğan-AKP.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Turkish snap election, June 2018 on: June 13, 2018, 10:20:20 am
Bloomberg sponsored a poll which has Erdoğan-AKP in a strong position

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/erdogan-fights-to-keep-power-as-bloomberg-poll-shows-tight-votes?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Prez
Erdoğan    50.8%
İnce          30.1%
Demirtaş   10.5%
Akşener      8.0%

Looks like Akşener dropped a lot during the campaign.

Parliament
AKP         46.0%
CHP         27.5%
HDP         11.7%
İYİ            9.0%
MHP          4.8% (in alliance with AKP)

Looks like AKP-MHP in a strong position to get a solid majority with HDP and İYİ at risk of falling below 10% threshold.  The new election law that allows alliances was built to help MHP which is unlikely to cross 10% but now will get seats since it will be on a join AKP-MHP list.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexican Elections 2017-18 on: June 13, 2018, 10:06:26 am
Third debate took place.  Was suppose about economic issues but ended up with all 3 major candidates throwing accusations of corruption at each other.   Net winner should be AMLO since the narrative of the election really did not change.  Even pro-PAN massive caller poll seems to have AMLO winning the debate.

19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you think Erdogan ... on: June 13, 2018, 08:56:00 am
I would say even if Erdogan does not get above 50% of the vote in the first round, as long as AKP-MHP gets close to 50% in the parliamentary election on the same day which should be enough for a majority there will be pressure for  Erdogan to win in the second round from a stability point of view as well as lower turnout by the anti-Erdogan vote discouraged by the AKP-MHP majority should see Erdogan through. 

The way to take down Erdogan is a significant under-performance by Erdogan and  AKP-MHP on  June 24.  Totally possible.  Just unlikely.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: June 13, 2018, 08:48:04 am
Ettoday (slightly pro-Blue) poll for Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (PVI Green +6)

KMT Lin(林姿妙)          41.2%
DPP Chen(陳歐珀)       15.8%
KMT rebel Lin (林信華)  3.9%

Obviously underestimates DPP.  But the gap highlights Lin(林姿妙) strength and the fact that is is the heavy favorite to win in this traditionally DPP county (back in 1980s  Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (PVI Green +6) was the most anti-KMT county).  Lin(林姿妙) could be a future KMT superstar if her tenure as Yilan County(宜蘭縣) (PVI Green +6) county magistrate goes well.  I can see her being on the KMT national ticket beyond 2024.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: June 13, 2018, 08:43:55 am
Chinatimes (pro-Blue) poll for Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

If former KMT County Magistrate Liu(劉政鴻) does not run as a KMT rebel
KMT Shu(徐耀昌)               56.9%
pro-DPP ind Shu(徐定禎)    17.6%

If former KMT County Magistrate Liu(劉政鴻) runs a a KMT rebel
KMT Shu(徐耀昌)               46.5%
pro-DPP ind Shu(徐定禎)    10.3%
KMT rebel Liu(劉政鴻)          8.6%



This is the most pro-KMT county on Taiwan Province.  I suspect if Liu(劉政鴻) does run his vote share is underestimated. Pro-DPP independent is most likely underestimated as well as the pro-DPP vote should be at least 30% if Liu(劉政鴻) does not run.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018 on: June 13, 2018, 07:12:27 am
One interesting aspect of this election is the role played by former DPM and Chief Minister of Johor and now President of PPBM Muhyiddin Yassin



Muhyiddin Yassin was DPM and deputy of Najib Razak.  He broke with Najib Razak in 2015 over 1MDB and left UNMO with Mahathir to form PPBM where  It is always said that Yassin's gambit on 1MDB was an attempt to capture UNMO from Razak which failed and as a result he left UNMO.  Mahathir  is Chairman and Yassin is President and runs the party day-to-day. Yassin was critical to the large swing in Johor from BN to PH just like Mahathir  was for Kedah.

A couple of pictures illustrate this shift.  

Here is Najib Razak with his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin claiming victory in the 2013 elections


And now here is Mahathir with his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin  claiming victory in the 2018 elections


You got to give Muhyiddin Yassin credit for being able to be on the winning side every time.  After Mahathir truly retires and Anwar takes over, Muhyiddin  most likely will be DPM to Anwar and could become Anwar's successor. 
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mexican Elections 2017-18 on: June 12, 2018, 07:04:43 pm
Third and last Prez debate tonight.  Last chance for AMLO to stumble.
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you have voted? Mexico on: June 12, 2018, 06:45:36 pm
1988 PRI
1994 PRI
2000 PAN
2006 PAN
2012 PRI
2018 PRI
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Why did Hillary so poor in Vermont? on: June 12, 2018, 02:37:22 pm
Write-ins were 7.04% of the vote have a lot to do with it.  I guess it is related to bitterness over Dem primary.
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