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101  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 11, 2019, 06:24:35 pm
News nation poll

          Seats  Vote share
NDA      270      34%
UPA      134      28%
Others  139      29%

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State level results

TN
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Karnataka
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Maharastra
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Chhattisgarh
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Bihar
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WB
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Odisha
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Gujarat
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Jharkhand
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MP
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J&K
The BJP is expected to win 3 of the 6 seats. Congress, NC and PDP may win one seat each.


Assam
BJP - 7 seats, Congress - 4 seats, AIUDF - 2 seats


UP
BJP may win 35 seats, SP-BSP-RLD may win 43 seats.  I guess INC 2


Uttarakhand:
BJP - 4 seats, Congress - 1 seat


Haryana:
BJP - 6 seats, Congress - 2 seats, INLD - 1 seat, JJP - 1 seat (INLD splinter)


HP:
BJP - 4 seats, Congress - 0 seats


Delhi:
BJP - 4 seats, AAP - 3 seats
102  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 11, 2019, 09:23:19 am
Zee 24 Taas poll

             Seats
NDA        264
UPA         165
Others     114
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Some state details

Uttar Pradesh: 80 seats
BJP - 50
INC - 5
SP-BSP - 25


Bihar: 40 seats
NDA - 28
UPA - 10
Others - 2


Jharkhand: 14 seats
NDA - 7
UPA - 7

 
Chhattisgarh: 11 seats
BJP - 4
INC - 7


Punjab: 13 seats
NDA - 3 (SAD -2 BJP -1)
INC - 10


Haryana: 10 seats
BJP - 6
INC - 3
Others - 1 (I assume INLD)

 
Gujarat: 26 seats
BJP - 24
INC - 2

 
Maharashtra: 48 seats
NDA - 30  (BJP 16 SHS 14)
UPA - 17 (INC 7 NCP 10)
Others - 1

 
Karnataka: 28 seats
BJP - 8
UPA - 20


Jammu and Kashmir: 6 seats
BJP - 3
UPA - 2 (INC 0 JKN -2)
PDP - 1
103  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: March 10, 2019, 07:41:03 pm
On ROC's somewhat lean Green but mostly youth political discussion board PTT the prediction contest on the New Taipei City (新北市) 3rd District (Green +7) and Tainan City (臺南市) 2nd District (Green +16)  3/16 by-election results are

New Taipei City (新北市) 3rd District (Green +7) 77% likely KMT win
Tainan City (臺南市) 2nd District (Green +16) 93% likely KMT win

It seems the board is more impressed by KMT superstar candidate Hsieh(謝龍介) in Tainan City (臺南市) 2nd District (Green +16) and the DPP split than the natural lean of the two districts. 
104  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 10, 2019, 04:55:22 pm
C-voter poll for LS elections (change from Jan 2019 poll)

           seats        vote share
NDA     264(+31)    41.1%(+3.5%)
UPA     141(-26)     30.9%(-1.3%)
Others 183(-5)       28.0%(-2.2%)
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Most of the NDA gains especially with respect to vote share are from alliance with AIADMK in TN and alliance with SHS in Maharashtra. Of course the BJP surge in the Hindi heartland also adds to the gain in seats relative to Jan 2019.

By state
Bihar
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Gujarat
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Kerala
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Assam
UPA- 7
NDA-6
AIUDF- 1
UPA- 42.6%
NDA-42.5%
AIUDF- 3.9%
Others-11%


UP
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Maharashtra
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MP
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Rajasthan
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Odisha
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Haryana
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Punjab
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WB
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HP
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TN
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Jharkhand
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Karnataka
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Delhi
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AP
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J&K
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Telangana
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Goa
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Uttarakhand
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Chhattisgarh
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Manipur
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Arunachal Pradesh
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Meghalaya
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105  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 10, 2019, 03:08:09 pm
Map an details of the 7 LS phases

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Phase 1
Last date of polling: April 11
Andhra Pradesh - 25
Arunachal- 2
Assam - 5
Bihar - 4
Chattisgarh - 1
Jammu Kashmir - 2
Maharashtra - 7
Manipur - 1
Meghalaya - 2
Mizoram - 1
Nagaland - 1
Orissa - 4
Sikkim - 1
Telangana - 17
Tripura - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 8
West Bengal - 2
Andaman Nicobar Islands- 1

Phase 2:
Last date of polling: April 18
Asaam - 5
Bihar - 5
Chattisgarh - 3
Jammu and Kashmir - 2
Karnataka  - 14
Maharashtra - 10
Manipur - 1
Orissa - 5
Tamil Nadu - 39
Tripura - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 8
West Bengal - 3
Puducherry - 1

Phase 3:
Last date of polling: April 23
Assam - 4
Bihar - 5
Chattisgarh - 7
Gujarat - 26
Goa - 2
Jammu and Kashmir - 1
Karnataka - 14
Kerala - 20
Maharashtra - 14
Orissa - 6
Uttar Pradesh - 10
West Bengal - 5
Dadar and Nagar Haveli - 1
Daman and Diu - 1

Phase 4:
Date of counting: May 23
Bihar - 5
Jammu and Kashmir - 1
Jharkhand  - 3
Madhya Pradesh  - 6
Maharashtra  - 17
Orissa - 6
Rajasthan - 13
Uttar Pradesh - 13
West Bengal - 8

Phase 5:
Last date of polling: May 6
Bihar- 5
Jammu and Kashmir- 2
Jharkhand  - 4
Madhya Pradesh - 7
Rajasthan - 12
Uttar Pradesh - 14
West Bengal - 7

Phase 6:
Last date of polling: May 12
Bihar - 8
Haryana - 10
Jharkhand - 4
Madhya Pradesh - 8
Uttar Pradesh - 14
West Bengal - 8
Delhi - 7

Phase 7:
Last date of polling: May 19
Bihar - 8
Jharkhand  - 3
Madhya Pradesh - 8
Punjab - 13
West Bengal - 9
Chandigarh - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 13
Himachal Pradesh - 4
106  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 10, 2019, 02:06:58 pm
Now that poll dates are announced a bunch of polls came out.  The first one is India TV-CNX  which has it at

            Seats    Diff vs 2014     Diff vs Jan 2019 poll   
NDA        285         -70                     +28
UPA         126         +46                    -20
Others     132         +24                     -8
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                          BJP   NDA      INC  UPA      Pro-NDA       Anti-NDA      Total
MP                      23                  6                                                        29
Chhattisgarh         6                   5                                                       11
Rajastahan          20                   5                                                       25
Punjab                        SAD:3     9                                      AAP:1         13
Haryana               9                   1                                                        10
Bihar                  15    JD(U)12   2  RJD:8                                             40
                                 LJP:3                                           
WB                     12                  0                                      AITC:30      42
                                                                                       Left:0
Odisha                 7                   0                BJD:14                             21   
Gujarat              26                   0                                                        26
Karnataka          13                 13  JD(S):2                                           28
AP                      0                   0   TDP:3     YSRCP:22                          25
Kerala                 1                   8  MUL:2                           Left:5          20
                                                   KEC(M):1                      Left Ind: 2
                                                   RSP:1
TN                      1  AIADMK:12 5  DMK:16                        AMMK:2      39 
                              PMK:2                                               NMN:1
UP                    40   AD:1         4                                      SP:18         80
                                                                                       BSP:16
                                                                                       RLD:1
Maharashtra      22   SHS:10     9  NCP:7                                              48     
Delhi                  7                   0                                       AAP:0           7
J&K                    2                   1  NC:2                             PDP:1            6
Assam                8                   4                                      AIUDF:2       14     
Northeast           3  MNF:1        3                                      Left:1           11
                             SDF:1                                               
                             NPP:1
                             NDPP:1
UT                    4   AINRC:0    2                                                           6
Telengana         0                    2                   TRS:14        AIMIM:1       17                   
Jharkhand         8                   2  JMM:3                           JVM:1          14
Goa                  2                   0                                                           2
Uttarakhand      5                   0                                                           5
HP                    4                   0                                                           2
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 Total              238  47           82  45             50               81              543


I think this poll still does not categorize JVM correctly as UPA and also still counts TDP as UPA when TDP does not have an alliance with INC in AP.

Overall NDA lost ground in the Northeast due to the Citizenship bill but gained ground in the Hindi North due to the Pakistan conflict and also gained in TN due to AIADMK-BJP alliance.  I am still skeptical that AIADMK-BJP can do so well in TN given the anti-Hindi sentiment there.  Also J&K result of (BJP 2 INC 2 JKN 1 PDP 1) does not make sense.  It implies that INC or BJP would win a seat in Kashmir when that is not possible.  Overall the trend of this poll relative to Jan does seem to make sense and the momentum so far is with BJP.
107  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: March 10, 2019, 08:56:00 am
The April Unified Local elections will be April 7th for all the 11 governor races, all the prefecture assemblies, head of 6 specialized cities and 17 specialized city assemblies.   April 21st will be less interesting since that will be most of the village heads and village assemblies.
108  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 10, 2019, 08:50:36 am
Based on this schedule one should expect exit polls to come out 5/19 and counting to take place 5/23.
109  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 10, 2019, 08:35:10 am
ECI announces LS election dates which will be 7 phases between April 11 to May 19

Date      April 11 April 18 April 23  April 29   May 6   May 12  May 19
States       20     13           14          9           7          7            8
Seats        91       97         115        71         51        59          59

There will be 543 LS seats, the number of eligible votes are around 900 million, there will be around 1 million polling stations and around 11 million polling staff.

For assembly elections AP, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Odisha (Orissa) will be held at the same time as the LS but not J&K.  The opposition in J&K (JKN PDP INC) are crying foul saying that this is an attempt to lower turnout in J&K and help BJP.
110  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 09, 2019, 10:15:26 am
More alliance news which mostly are favorable to BJP

1) In Jharkhand BJP-AJSU alliance formed.  BJP will contest 13 out of 14 seats and AJSU will contest 1 seat.  I am surprised that AJSU was willing to accept 1 seat but this does give BJP a fighting chance in Jharkhand to win a majority of seat against INC-JMM-JVM-RJD.

2) In Delhi there are still on again off again INC-AAP talks but most likely they will fight separately and BJP should sweep all 7 seats.

3) In UP RJD has joined SP-BSP alliance so it will be BSP 38 seats SP 37 seats 3 RJD with the alliance not running in the 2 Gandhi INC seats.  There are still rumors of ongoing talks between SP-BSP and INC.  I still think the most likely outcome are for a tactical alliance where SP-BSP vacate 5-6 more seats where INC is fairly strong and INC vacate 30-40 seats where INC is more likely to split the anti-BJP vote and run in other seats where INC has Upper Caste support to ensure that those votes does not go INC.  

4) In TN it seems DMDK has agreed to join AIADMK-BJP-PMK-PT alliance where it will contest 4 seats.  This is not confirmed but if so then this is a big climb-down for DMDK.  Of course the 2016 TN assembly election results show the true size of the DMDK base without the novelty factor of 2006-2009.

5) In AP it is pretty clear now that TDP and INC will run separately so TDP can run a clear anti-Telengana  campaign by pinning YSRCP as a puppet of TRS given the recent de facto alliance between YSRCP and TRS.

6) In Assam it is still not clear of AGP will join the BJP alliance now that the new citizenship bill has been withdrawn.  There are rumors of INC-AGP alliance talks but most likely in the end AGP will go with BJP.

7) Former BJP head of Kerala Kummanam Rajasekharan who is now the governor of Mizoram has resigned as governor and it is said he will contest for the BJP in Thiruvananthapuram of Kerala which is BJP's strongest district.  This gives BJP a clear shot at winning its first seat ever in Kerala if the INC and Left Front vote are evenly split.

8  ) In Maharashtra it seems SHS splinter NMS which has turned to a harsh anti-Modi stance is unlikely to contest and de facto throw its support behind NCP (although taking a more neutral stance on INC).  Not sure how this will work out on the ground but should give INC-NCP a chance to fight BJP-SHS to a draw here.

9) In WB there has been on again off again talks between INC and Left Front for an alliance.  At this stage that no longer seems possible but there could be some sort of tactical alliance where INC and Left Front support each other in some seats but have "friendly fights" in other seats.  Main problem here is geographical.  Some of the INC strongholds happens to have strong Left Front presence with AITC and BJP far behind.  So the idea here is where INC and Left front can form an alliance both are so weak as not to be able to take on AITC nor BJP.  Where INC or Left Front are strong both are strong so they view each other as the enemy as opposed to AITC and BJP.

10) In Karnataka INC-JD(S) talks are getting heated there is danger of the entire alliance breaking down with both sides sticking to their guns.  I suspect this is a game of chicken and a INC-JD(S) alliance will be formed.

11) In Bihar it is the same in RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP talks where INC insist on 12-14 seats out of 40 while RJD only could part with 10 given the need to accommodate other allies like RLDP HAM VIP and perhaps CPI CPM CPM(ML).  RJD has made a final offer of 11 seats to INC but it seems INC insist on at least 12.  I suspect this is just a game of chicken since if this alliance splits then for sure BJP-JD(U)-LJP will sweep Bihar.
111  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: March 08, 2019, 07:45:43 pm
News Nation poll for Bihar and Jharkhand.

For Bihar it has
 
            Seat   Vote share
NDA       27         45%
UPA       12          37%
Other      1

which seems reasonable given the relative sizes of the social bases of the two blocs.
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For Jharkhand  it has

           Seat   Vote share
NDA      10         42%
UPA         4         34%

Which given the INC-JMM-JVM-RJD grand alliance is surprising.  One would expect UPA to at least fight BJP to a draw.  If this poll is true then it implies UPA allies are not able to transfer votes to each other.
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Separately VPA came out with a projection that NDA will win 240-260 seats.  Back in early Feb VPA projected 242 seats for NDA.  If so it seems NDA gained around 10 seats from the conflict with Pakistan which implies that impact of the conflict with Pakistan is already wearing off.
 
112  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019 on: March 08, 2019, 12:58:40 pm
Looks like Zehut is past the threshold for a couple of polls now.  Assuming they make it in will they back a Right-Religious government  ?  I though the leader of Zehut is a rival of Netanyahu so will Zehut demand that Netanyahu goes as part of its condition to join up a Likud led Center-Religious government ?
113  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: March 06, 2019, 08:29:17 pm
Latest Chinatimes 2020 Prez polls seem pretty good for Chu

It has

KMT Han    31.9
Ko             22.9
DPP Tsai     15.6
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KMT Chu    31.0
Ko             25.7
DPP Tsai     12.2
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The bad news for Tsai is that she loses support when Chu is running since part of the anti-Chu DPP base switches to Ko relative to if Han ran for KMT.  This seems to indicate that even the core DPP vote accepts that Tsai will be 3rd.  Chu only polls 1% less than Han which is an excellent result for him.
114  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: March 05, 2019, 09:58:06 am
In TN DMK-INC alliance talks done:  In Puducherry the alliance will back the INC candidate.  In the 39 TN seats it will be DMK 20 INC 9 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 2 MDMK 1 IJK 1 IUML 1 KMDK 1.
MDMK is also allocated a Upper House seat when the TN elect its next batch of Upper House MPs in June.

What is striking about this distribution is the relative weakness of MDMK in these talks. I would have expected MDMK to get 2 if not 3 seats.  CPI and CPM getting 2 seats each is way above what they are worth but I guess DMK is betting that the small CPI and CPM vote base are more transferable so it makes sense to get them on board.

On the AIADMK side it already have BJP PMK and PT in the alliance and there are talks with DMDK to bring them in.  Both PMK and DMDK held talks with DMK but they are went nowhere because DMK has a winning hand and saw no need to give up large number of seats to either PMK nor DMDK.  AIADMK with AMMK splitting the AIADMK base and taking an the anti-BJP mood in TN is more desperate and willing to deal.

Even if AIADMK ropes in DMDK most likely DMK bloc will have the upper hand if not sweep the state.  On risk for DMK-INC bloc is if AMMK and upstart NMN ends up eating into the anti-BJP vote letting in AIADMK bloc in some seats.
 
115  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019 on: March 05, 2019, 09:47:36 am
Panels poll for Walla:

Blue & White 36
Likud 31
Hadash-Ta'al 9
Labour 8
UTJ 7
URWP 7
New Right 6
Meretz 6
Kulanu 6
Shas 4

YB (2.8%), Gesher (2.7%), Zehut (2.6%), Balad-Ra'am (1.6%) and others below threshold

Right-religious 61
Center-left-coalitionable Arab 59

Is it me or are the Arab parties losing support relative to 2015.  Balad-Ra'am  at 1.6% and Hadash-Ta'a at 9 seats seems to indicate that they lost support since 2015 when compared to Joint List.  Where did those votes go or it this more about lower Arab turnout ?
116  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: March 05, 2019, 06:20:40 am
CNX poll for UP after the India-Pakistan conflict (change relative to early Feb poll)

NDA                41 (+12)
SP-BSP-RLD    35 (-14)
INC                  4 (+2)
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Like I guessed, the India-Pakistan conflict tends to help both BJP and INC relative to regional parties.  If India-Pakistan conflict now dies down I suspect the impact of this will be fairly small as level of support might revert over the next month or so.
117  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: March 04, 2019, 09:33:31 pm
Can the DPP recover in time for the 2020 Presidential Elections ?

Well after the 2018 election defeat Tsai is an underdog for re-election but I think her chances are underestimated.  Firstly she has refused to step aside (a la Hollande 2017) and insist on running for re-election.  I think this is a smart move.  Stepping side is basically telling your supporters  that the KMT is right and you have failed so 2020 would see DPP perhaps even implode to minor party status.  Tsai insisting on running for re-election also prevents any other DPP challenger because a wounded Tsai or overthrow of Tsai would also mean a meltdown of DPP in 2020.  So Tsai meet the first criteria which is most likely she will lead a weakened but united DPP in 2020.

A lot will depend on what will take place in the 3/16 by-election.  Lets assume DPP loses both New Taipei City (新北市) 3rd District (Green +7) and Tainan City (臺南市) 2nd District (Green +16) narrowly which would be bad but most likely survivable.  One theoretical hope for Tsai would be if the KMT gets into a bitter primary season would lead to a rebel Pan-Blue candidate.  This is unlikely.  The Pan-Blue always split when they are in power (1996 2000 2012 2016 elections) but are always united when they are out of power (2004 2008).  I think it is reasonable to assume the KMT will united the Pan-Blue behind a strong candidate (Chu or Han.)

Another factor is if Ko will run.   The danger for Tsai is Ko runs is that he might drive Tsai and DPP to a humiliating weak third (like what happen to Yao in Taipei City 2018) but a Ko run could be what it takes to give Tsai a narrow path to victory.

If it ends up being DPP Tsai vs KMT Chu it would most likely be

KMT Chu  55
DPP Tsai   45

If somewhat KMT drafts Han (very unlikely if Ko does not run) it would most likely be

KMT Han 57
DPP Tsai  43

Now if Ko gets into the race with KMT running Chu I think it will be

KMT Chu  36
Ko           34
DPP Tsai   30

And if Ko somehow has a partial implosion on the Pan-Green flank Tsai could pull of an astounding  victory

If Ko gets into the race and Chu falls behind Ko in the polls the KMT could draft Han where I think it will be

KMT Han  40
Ko           32
DPP Tsai  28

Where Han would win by a solid margin. 

A lot of this decisions will become circular.  Ko will run if he is sure the KMT will not run Han and the KMT will not draft Han unless Ko runs and is ahead of Chu in the polls.  So it might end up being a game of chicken between Ko and KMT on who shows their hand last.  All these maneuvers could give Tsai the space to consolidate the Pan-Green came to stage a comeback.
118  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: March 04, 2019, 02:25:45 pm
The 2014 J&K assembly election saw the JKN and INC fight separately to to prevent the PDP and BJP surge in Kashmir and Jammu respectively.  To some extent they recovered some votes but it was clear that PDP and BJP came out ahead in their respective regions as the anti-incumbent wave was too strong.

2014 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            86                12             18.20%

INC rebel                         0               0.48%
 
JKN+          86               16             21.13%

JKN rebel                         0              1.21%

PDF             3                  1              0.73% (JKN splinter)

PDP+         85                28             23.32%

PDP rebel                         0             0.22%

JKDPN+        5                 0              0.61% (PDP splinter)

BJP             75               25            23.22%

BJP rebel                         1              1.14%

JKPC          26                 2              1.95% (Separatist)

BSP           50                  0             1.42%

JKNPP        60                  0             2.01% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            3                  1              0.50%

AIP             1                  1              0.38% (Separatist)

Just to give a sense of the relative strength of the parties in each region the results by region are



2014 J&K assembly election (Kashmir)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            45                 4             12.92%

INC rebel                         0               0.56%
 
JKN            46               12             29.58%

JKN rebel                         0              2.04%

PDF             3                  1              1.66% (JKN splinter)

PDP            46               25             37.91%

PDP rebel                         0             0.50%

JKDPN+        5                 0             1.39% (PDP splinter)

BJP             34                 0             2.27%

JKPC          25                 2              4.43% (Separatist)

CPM            2                  1              1.11%

AIP             1                  1              0.87% (Separatist)

The battle was mostly PDP vs JKN but it seems some of the anti-JKN INC vote that went PDP in the LS election came back.  Turnout in Kasmir assembly elections are at lot higher than LS elections which should have helped PDP and Separatist parties but JKN and INC running separately did seem to help to retain the core vote bases from PDP.




2014 J&K assembly election (Ladkah)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC              4                  3            51.25%
 
JKN+            3                 1             13.90%           

PDP              3                 0             11.89%

BJP               4                 0            22.37%

Without directly LUTF support BJP support fell a bit and the INC was able to consolidate its Buddhist  and Muslim base to win 3 out the 4 seats while PDP managed to split the JKN Muslim vote.



2014 J&K assembly election  (Jammu)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            37                 5             21.01%

INC rebel                         0              0.44%
 
JKN            37                 3             14.51%

JKN rebel                         0              0.59%

PDP+         36                  3             11.87%

BJP            37                25             40.47%

BJP rebel                         1              2.13%

BSP           36                  0             2.45%

JKNPP        34                  0             3.43% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

The BJP wave continued from the 2014 LS election.  In theory it should be a BJP clean sweep in Hindu areas with INC-JKN split but the INC was able to gain back some anti-JKN votes to dent the BJP vote share to retain a few seats.

With the assembly hopelessly hung months of debates and talks produced a bizarre PDP-BJP government with PDP leader Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as CM again. Despite the contradictory nature of this alliance  it managed to continue until 2016 when Mufti Mohammad Sayeed passed away.
 Again after several months of talks PDP-BJP government was reformed with now PDP leader  Mehbooba Mufti as CM.    The PDP-BJP alliance clearly hurt PDP in Kashmir as the anti-BJP Muslim vote must have drifted to JKN.    In the meantime JKN-INC restored their alliance.

Then in June 2018 PDP and BJP had a finally falling out and J&K was put under "Governor's rule" which is really rule from the federal government.  The 2019 J&K assembly election will most likely seen BJP vs PDP vs JKN-INC.  It is clear that in Kashmir JKN should defeat PDP and in Ladkah INC should defeat BJP as Buddhist Ladkah LUTF seems to have drifted away from BJP.  The real question will be in Jammu on if the BJP can hold on to the Hindu vote against the INC.  All things equal a JKN-INC government will be formed after the assembly election.  The question is with how large of a majority which is a function of Jammu results.
119  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: March 04, 2019, 01:37:37 pm
The 2014 LS elections where held with INC credibility shot and the surge of the Modi wave.  In J&K JKN-INC ran as allies to no avail as there was also anti-incumbency against the JKN-INC government.  The result was a PDP sweep of Kashmir and BJP sweep of Jammu.  In Ladkah INC splinter LUTF ran on the BJP ticket and won with an INC rebel to split INC vote.

2014 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          6                  0              34.29% (JKN was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0               1.33%

PDP+         6                  3              21.52% (Ladkah Muslim ISK was part of PDP+)

BJP            6                   3             32.65%

JKPC          1                   0              2.01% (Separatist)

BSP            4                  0              1.53%

JKNPP        5                   0             1.23% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

AIP            1                   0             0.62%  (Separatist)

Just to give a sense of the relative strength of the parties in each region the results by region are



2014 J&K LS election (Kashmir)

JKN           3                  0              34.86% (JKN was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0               1.41%

PDP           3                   3             46.89%

BJP            3                   0              1.38%

JKPC          1                   0              6.25% (Separatist)

JKNPP        3                   0             0.80% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

AIP            1                   0             1.94%  (Separatist)

In Kashmir it is mostly PDP vs JKN (backed by INC).  With the situation deteriorating in Kashmir the Muslim vote swung over to the sovereignists PDP on an anti-incumbent wave.  The Separatist vote is also growing.  BJP is very weak here as there are very few Hindus left in Kashmir.
 


2014 J&K LS election (Ladkah)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           1                  0              22.60%

INC rebel                        0             26.60%

ISK            1                  0              24.17% (Ladkah Muslim ISK was part of PDP+)

BJP            1                   1             26.63% (Buddhist Ladkah LUTF ran on BJP ticket)

Here the Muslim vote split between the ISK and INC Muslim rebel.  LUTF running as BJP was able to win enough of the Buddhist vote away from the INC candidate to win.



2014 J&K LS election (Jammu)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            2                  0              34.60% (backed by JKN)

PDP            2                  0                8.73%

BJP            2                  2              48.56%

BSP           2                  0                2.09%

JKNPP        2                  0               1.51% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

Here it is INC (backed by JKN) vs BJP with PDP taking some votes in Muslim areas.  The Hindu vote clearly swung over to BJP by a large margin leaving it with a clear victory.

After the LS election a BJP government was formed at eh federal level.  The INC-JKN alliance ended given the disastrous election results.  The thinking in both parties was that part of its base defected to BJP (for INC) or PDP (for JKN) given the negativity toward the other ally.  And for the upcoming J&K assembly election it is best to part ways to try to save as many votes as possible.  
120  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: March 04, 2019, 12:40:33 pm
One of the accomplishments  that PM Abe was hoping lock down in 2019 to help the LDP in upcoming elections is some sort of deal with Russia over the Kuril Islands (known in Japan as the Northern territories (北方領土)) north of 北海道(Hokkaido) which was taken over by USSR in 1945.  There are 4 islands in all that Russia now still controls.   Pretty much no Japanese lives there anymore but a lot of Japanese ancestral graves are on these islands.
Img


Abe's strategy seems to be to get Putin to give back 2 of the islands now in return for Japanese economic investments in Russia with more talks on what is the status of the other 2.  Problem is Japanese public opinion has only 22% supporting such a plan.  While 42% want 2 islands returned asap and then economic help for Russia be linked with the the return of the remaining 2 islands.
Img


Of course this entire thin s is a no go because Russian public opinion is opposed to anything like this where it is 77% against, only 9% for any deal where any island is given to Japan in return for economic benefits for Russia.
https://fom.ru/Mir/14152

I doubt this would go anywhere in the era of rule by the masses.  In earlier times when it was the rule of royalty some deal like this could work but not this era.
121  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: March 04, 2019, 08:49:15 am
Latest TVBS polls have DPP in trouble for the 3/16 by-elections.

In  New Taipei City (新北市) 3rd District (Green +7) it has it at

KMT  40
DPP   36

And that is with the DPP candidate Yu(余天) being the former MP from this district and have very high name recognition due to him being an entertainment superstar.   Given both TVBS's pro-Blue bias plus Yu(余天) out sized  name recognition this will be neck-to-neck with a slight KMT edge.
Img


In Tainan City (臺南市) 2nd District (Green +16) the TVBS poll is a shock

KMT        38
DPP         26 (New Tide)
DPP rebel 13 (anti-New Tide)

Note that back in 2016 Tsai won 78.1% of the vote in this district which made it her strongest district.  The DPP MP candidate Huang who was just elected Tainan City mayor back in Nov 2018 won 76.5% of the vote (with a minor radical pro-Taiwan independence party winning 2.4% of the vote.)  Even in the KMT landslide of 2008 Huang won here 59.2% to KMT backed NPB 40.8%.

The good news for the DPP is that a lot of undecided must be pro-Ex-Prez Chen Deep Green voters that are still deciding between the DPP candidate and the anti-New Tide DPP rebel.  The bad news is that it seems ex-DPP Prez Chen and Ko both which are out for blood against the New Tid faction are implicitly backing the DPP rebel so the DPP rebel vote would not collapse last minute.  Most likely this will end up neck-to-neck with a slight KMT edge. 
122  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: first presidential election you remember? on: March 01, 2019, 09:11:51 pm
1980.  I was eight and on ROC and heard that Reagan was pro-ROC versus that traitor Carter that recognized Chinese Communist.   Then I got the news that Reagan won.  As far as elections were concerned I did have some memories of the 1977 ROC local elections when I was five and recall hearing my family debating/arguing who to vote for during family gatherings  There are pro-KMT and anti-KMT branches of my family and they were clearly on display during these debates.
123  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019 on: March 01, 2019, 01:53:59 pm
Kan and Channel 13 poll

Kahol Lavan – 37
Likud – 29
Hayamin Hehadash – 7
Hadash-Ta'al – 7
United Torah Judaism – 7
Shas – 6
Labor – 6
Meretz – 6
Ra'am-Balad – 5
Union of Right-Wing Parties – 5
Kulanu – 5

61 seats for the center-left, as opposed to the right's 59.
124  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: March 01, 2019, 01:02:43 pm
The next trial of strength would be the 3/16 legislative by-elections. 3 out of the 4 by-elections are because sitting MPs were elected to country magistrate/mayor positions back in Nov 2018.  They are Jinmen County(金門縣) (Blue +38), Changhua County(彰化縣) 1st District (Green +1), and Tainan City (臺南市) 2nd District (Green +16).  The last one is New Taipei City (新北市) 3rd District (Green +7) where the sitting DPP MP was convinced of corruption and removed.

The Jinmen County(金門縣) (Blue +38) race will be KMT vs KMT rebel which most likely will go KMT.  In  Changhua County(彰化縣) 1st District (Green +1) it seems the KMT will win with ease.  The other two are the interesting ones.  

Even though New Taipei City (新北市) 3rd District (Green +7) is a DPP stronghold (it went DPP narrowly even in the 2008 KMT landslide) the DPP felt that they are in danger of losing so they put in an DPP ex-MP of this district Yu(余天) who is a well known singer in the entertainment world.  
Img


The KMT candidate is not well known but due to the KMT Han wave and the anti-DPP tide it seems that the KMT has a narrow edge here and could very well win.

In Tainan City (臺南市) 2nd District (Green +16) the KMT ran its superstar of the city Hsieh(謝龍介) who is the leader of the KMT city assembly caucus.   Hsieh is an expert in the Minnan dialect and has strong appeal to the traditionalist (but not radical independence) DPP voter base.
Img


The DPP also ran a city council member but is seen as not as charismatic as Hsieh.  The main DPP problem here is the DPP candidate is from the New Tide faction.  This provoked a DPP rebel candidate Chen(陳筱諭) who is the daughter of a pro-DPP  ex-city assembly member. Chen has youth and beauty appeal and is close to the ex-DPP Prez Chen and is expected to pull in the DPP anti-New Tide vote.
Img


The net effect of a KMT superstar candidate and an anti-New Tide candidate now risk the DPP losing a district which has the largest pro-Green lean on the entire Taiwan Province.  If anything the chance of the DPP losing ainan City (臺南市) 2nd District (Green +16) might be greater than New Taipei City (新北市) 3rd District (Green +7).

If the DPP loses both by-elections I can see a second wind of the anti-Tsai rebellion with DPP.  In Jan 2019 Tsai was mostly able to quell a rising anti-Tsai rebellion in the DPP by provoking a war of words with PRC Prez Xi.  But it might start again if the DPP loses both by-elections.

After the 3/16 by-elections can we consider the ROC 2018 local elections "over" and the 2020 ROC Prez/Legislative race to start.
125  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: March 01, 2019, 12:42:16 pm
The 2008 J&K assembly election saw the INC and PDP alliance fall apart and running separately.  The INC lost ground across the board due to anti-incumbency at the federal level with BJP making gains at the expense of INC in Jammu.

2008 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          82                17             18.71%

INC rebel                         0               3.38%
 
JKN+          87               29             23.61% (Buddhist Ladkah LUTF was part of JKN+)

JKN rebel                         0              1.91%

PDF            27                 1              1.80% (JKN splinter)

JKANC        56                 0              1.02% (JKN splinter)

PDP            78               21            15.33%

PDP rebel                         0             1.40%

JKDPN        25                 1              1.25% (PDP splinter)

BJP             64               11            12.44%

BJP rebel                         2              1.36%

JKPC            2                 0              0.38% (Separatist)

BSP           83                  1              3.67%

JKNPP        36                  3             3.33% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            8                  1              0.80%

AIP             1                  1              0.20% (Separatist)

This election saw the participation of separatist outfits for the first time since the 1980s.  After some haggling JKN and INC formed an alliance and formed the government with JKN's Omar Abdullah  as CM as JKN leader Farooq Abdullah continued to work at the federal level.  

This JKN-INC alliance continued in the 2009 LS election where where INC outperformed in Northern India as well as Jammu leading to JKN-INC victory.

2009 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          6                  5              43.78% (JKN was part of INC+)

JKN rebel                        0               0.94%
INC rebel                        0               1.25%

LUTF           1                  1                0.87% (Buddhist Ladkah party)

PDP            6                  0              20.05%

BJP            4                   0             18.61%

JKPC          1                   0              2.51% (Separatist)

BSP            5                  0              3.10%

JKNPP        2                   0             2.81% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

In Ladkah INC and JKN rebels running against the INC candidate threw the election to LUTF  which is really a Buddhist Ladkah INC splinter.  INC won re-election at the federal level as well.  Once again JKPC which is a Separatist party also ran in this election.
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