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11276  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Lastest news from 2004 Taiwan pre-election shooting on: March 12, 2005, 11:44:30 am
Item: Update from the 3/19/2004 pre-election "shooting" of Republic of China (ROC) President Chen Shui-Bien

Background:  Chen Shui-Bien was running about 10 point behind in the polls in the run up to the 3/20/2004 election.  On the day before the election, while campaigning with the Vice-President Lu Shiu-Lien his home county of Tainan, both were shot twice while in a car.  The shooter was not caught.  Both Chen and Lu were slightly injured but the government news wires led people to belive that the injuries were far worse than reality.  Chen-Lu were reelected the next day by a 0.2% margin.

Update:  Earlier this week, the police announced the case as solved.  Two suspects were identified and one was identified as the shooter.  Both had committed "suicide" already.  A third suspect that was identified earlier last year also commited "suicide."  The shooter was identified as Chen Yi-Shiung of Tainan.  He was a small business owner and was displeased with the poor economy.  He then decided to shoot to President on the day before an election he was going to lose to get even.  He then supposedly, put in a bright yellow jacket with his martial arts club logo on it and shot the President from a crowd.  He fired two bullets in .65 seconds and both were right on the mark (a shot various experts could not duplicate on Taiwan Province.)  He then hid the rifle and then continued to follow the President's car for a while before going home.  He then admitted to his wife that he did the deed.  Ten days later he wrote a confession note (which was destroyed by his wife) and then put on a new suit and jumped into a river comitting suicide despite the fact that he was an expert swimmer.  His body was cremated and the rifle was never found.  His wife just recently confessed to her husbands statments.

I see another "JFK" movie coming up Smiley
11277  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Cornering the Dragon: Cold War Redux on: March 11, 2005, 06:49:49 pm
Below is from the editorials of The Hindu.   I could not have said it better myself.     

Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai !!!

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CONTRARY TO ALL the hype, China's anti-secession Bill under consideration by the National People's Conference the country's parliament for enactment during its current session appears to be a measured step. It is a response to provocative calls for Taiwan's independence by politicians in the island over the past year, leading to heightened tensions in the entire region. The Bill is a reiteration of China's longstanding and consistent position on Taiwan. Beijing justly views Taiwan as a dissident province that, given time and diplomatic effort, will eventually reunify politically with the mainland. The decision to give the "one China" policy a legal basis through an Act that envisages, as the last resort, military intervention to preserve its territorial integrity, came after President Chen Shiu-bian of Taiwan ran his 2004 re-election campaign on the promise to change the Constitution by a referendum to underline the island's "sovereign and independent" status. Although he toned down the separatist rhetoric following his re-election, it resurfaced in the island's legislative elections last December. Clearly, by including in the draft Bill a provision for the use, should the need arise, of "non-peaceful methods," China wants to put in place a deterrent to any plan for drastic action splittist politicians in Taiwan might have up their sleeves, thus making a military confrontation between the two sides less likely than it seemed in the past.

Taiwanese pro-independence leaders have predictably described the proposed anti-secession law as a design by China to annex the island by force. But the draft Bill makes it clear that Beijing favours only a peaceful reunification, emphasising that only this "best serves the fundamental interests of all Chinese people, the Taiwan compatriots included, as it is conducive to fostering a warm affection among compatriots on both sides, to peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation." Among the peaceful methods the Bill envisages are greater contacts between the people on both sides, closer economic ties, direct air and shipping services, and exchanges in education, science and technology, culture, health, and sports. Indeed, the Chinese Government has already demonstrated a willingness to promote friendly relations with Taiwan by permitting during the recent Spring Festival the first cross-Strait direct charter flights in 55 years. While the draft Bill sets out what is non-negotiable the "one China" principle it provides plenty of room for manoeuvre through the "one country, two systems" formula, specifically to take into account the history of Taiwan and the aspirations of its people. Even the decision to call it an "anti-secession" law rather than a "reunification" law is an indication that China's parameters on the Taiwan question are broad and allow for flexibility.

The Taiwanese regime should view the proposed law, which stresses that "any issue" can be discussed provided the one China principle is adhered to, as an opportunity to begin a dialogue with the Chinese Government to end the cross-Straits hostility. This is what the people of Taiwan desire. Going by President Chen's re-election by the narrowest of margins, and the poor performance of his party in the legislative elections, Taiwanese voters have tired of irresponsible leaders who advocate a collision course with Beijing. Should Mr. Chen decide to persist with adventurism, he will find himself isolated in the international community. The United States clearly does not want to be pushed into a confrontation with China, one of its key economic partners. It is time Taiwan's leaders read the writing on the wall, both at home and abroad. There is not the ghost of a chance of their getting away with any declaration of independence.

11278  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Most influential election on: February 17, 2005, 01:06:10 pm
1864.  After Lincoln's victory and the various "reforms" after that you could say that the USA entered into its "Second Republic."  After 1864 it is just a different country on the relationship of federal government, state government, and citizen with each other.
11279  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What Asian city would you most prefer to live in? on: February 07, 2005, 09:08:53 am
Been to all of them except for Vadlidoskok and Calcutta.  Easy.  Shanghai hands down.  I would have voted for my home town of Taipei a few years back but it has been clearly been overtaken by Shanghai.
11280  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Most stolen election of 2004 on: February 01, 2005, 04:28:03 pm
The March 19 2004 "shotting" of Chen Shui-Bien followed by a 0.22% margin of victory on the election the next day truely pushes the boundaries of how to steal elections.  All polls showed Chen about to lose by a 10% margin but a win was pulled out on a massive sympathy wave. 

The ROC oppsition controlled legislature, after Chen was "re-elected" formed a Warren Commission like entity to look into the events of March 19.  The ruling bloc boycotted the commission and did the utmost to block it from carrying out its duties.  First wave findings from the comission are on www.the139.org (which is in Chinese.)   It concluded that the shooting was for the purpose of influencing the election and that the shooting itself might have been fake and very well staged.  Since this comission was boycotted by the ruling Pan-Green allianace, the results are seen as partisan with Pan-Blue supporters accepting the findings and Pan-Green supporters rejecting.  Chen's approval rate is around the high 30s and lows 40s.  He will keep that base of support no matter what the commission finds.
11281  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Taiwan legislature December 10 on: February 01, 2005, 04:19:12 pm
Vote for Speaker of the LiFaYuan was today with victory for the Pan-Blue Alliance.

It was a 123-101 Pan-Blue victory for Speaker
and 122-102 Pan-Blue victory for Vice-Speaker.

Like I said, even though the LiFaYuan is split 114 to 101 in the Pan-Blue Pan-Green balance but the 10 independents are almost all pro-Pan-Blue.  In the 2001 LiFaYuan, it was 115 to 100 in favor of Pan-Blue but  the 10 independents are almost split down the middle between the two camps.  Despite predictions of defeat, including my, the Pan-Blue camp came out stronger in this the election of 2004 than 2001.

11282  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: "He was, as great a leader, as a Chairman Mao." on: January 31, 2005, 08:29:00 pm
Mao was one of the worst leaders in Chinese history.  Namely the Great Leap Forward was one the greatest fiascos ever.  I will give him credit for coming up with the atomic bomb and building an independent foreign policy that showed some flexiblity in forming an de facto alliance with the USA.  His irrational hostility to the USSR in the late 1960s and early 1970s should be condemed.
11283  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: What are all the political parties in Iraq? on: January 28, 2005, 09:31:58 am
All the parties in the Kurdish areas are going to run on an united front.  This means the will most likely get 99% of the vote or something like that because there is no other choice.  Reminds me of the various Saddam Hussain votes they used to have.
11284  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: China Loses Faith in the Dollar! on: January 27, 2005, 04:44:28 pm
You are such a g idiot. The value of the dollar is based on our productivity divided by the number of dollars we print.

China dropping the dollar does not lower our productivity.

You have some imaginary, 3-year old version of economics.

Homeownership is at an all time high, we have a record low unemployment rating, and you're talking about a "much lower standard of living."

Actually it does make a difference.  If the likes of PRC, Japan and others switches away from the $ as a reserve currency they will buy a lot less US Treasuries.  This would in turn mean that long term interest rates in the USA will surge and put an end to the real estate bubble.  This in turn will hit USA consumption patterns and bring on a recession.  If the 2001-2002 recession should not be called the Bush Recession like the GOP claims, the recession that comes a result of what I describe above certainly should be.

11285  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Replacement for William Rehnquist on: January 25, 2005, 11:56:15 am
Thomas
11286  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What is the worst piece of legislation signed in the last fifty years? on: January 25, 2005, 11:54:53 am
Civil Rights Act 1964. 
11287  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Did the "FDR" Re-alignment really begin in 1928? on: January 25, 2005, 11:48:46 am
This is a major theme in Kevin Phillips' Emerging Republican Majority written in 1969.  Phillips claims that the New Deal Realignment has its roots in the 1928 election just like the 1968 realignment has its roots in the 1964 election.
11288  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Death of Zhao Ziyang on: January 18, 2005, 09:10:43 am
You may have never heard of him- but he deserves recognition.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2989335.stm

A former secretary-general of the Chinese Communist Party, Zhao Ziyang was a leading reformer. But he was toppled in 1989, after trying to find common ground with the student demonstrators in Tiananmen Square.



I just laugh at that.  Zhao Ziyang tried to take advantage of the Student demostrations to capture power at the center.  His scheme was defeated by his mentor Deng Xiao-Ping he was ousted from his position and deserved his fate for trying to use a crisis to expand his power base.
11289  General Discussion / History / Re: The Importance of One Vote on: January 12, 2005, 10:53:46 pm
The National Democratic Alliance lost in April 1999 a vote of confidence in the Indian Lok Shaba by one vote 269-268 I believe.
11290  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The Buyer's Remorse begins on: January 12, 2005, 07:07:59 pm
A two party system is worse than a one party system?

I'm pretty sure Hittler, Saddam, and Stalin would all agree with you 100%.

USA is in many way a One Party System on the Congressional level.  Vast sections of House Seats are uncompetitive.  In State Legislative elections, almost 40% of seats are uncontested.  40% of USA on the State Legislative level are One Party regimes, although at different places the "One Party" is different.
11291  General Discussion / History / Re: Did South Vietnam deserve to be destroyed? on: January 12, 2005, 07:03:05 pm
I had great sympothy with Republic of Vietnam just like my Republic of China on Taipei as a non-Communist alternative to our rivals.  On the other hand it failed mainly because on the grass roots level its main supporters are the rich and powerful Chinese populations in South Vietnam (they got to have their own seperate laws, often acting like a superclass.)  The nexus of Chinese money and American military/economic aid with Republic of Vietnam government made it puppet regime both in popular image and indeed reality.  The Chinese in Vietnam that bought access to the Republic of Vietnam government served it ill as they were targets of persecution after the victory of North Vietnam.
11292  General Discussion / History / Re: Kosovo War on: January 12, 2005, 06:57:43 pm
The thing that was funny about the Kosovo War was that during the war we heard about how much the Yugoslav military assets were destroyed in the bombing.  In the end the NATO forces destroyed hundreds of dummy tanks, dummy air fields, dummy airplanes.  By counting the number of Yugoslav tanks and AFV that pulled out of Kosovo after the cease fire, I think only three (count them, three) Yugoslav tanks were destroyed by NATO bombing.
It really reminds me of the whole Vietnam "body count" thing and now the Iraq "hundreds of insurgents killed" line.
11293  General Discussion / History / Re: Kosovo War on: January 12, 2005, 06:54:15 pm
For sure.  I opposed the Kosovo War from the beginning back on 1998 just like I equally opposed the Iraq War from the beginning back in 2003.
11294  General Discussion / History / Re: Would you have supported John Brown? on: January 12, 2005, 06:53:20 pm
He was a true rebel if there was ever one.  Had to hunted down and executed.  He deserved what happend to him.
11295  General Discussion / History / Re: Do You Support Slavery in the American South? on: January 12, 2005, 06:50:42 pm
For sure I oppose slavery in the South but would oppose a war that forces them to give it up.
11296  General Discussion / History / Re: Do You Support Slavery in the American South? on: January 12, 2005, 06:49:34 pm
Shrug. I remember learning in history class (with an outdated textbook) that most of the South didn't own slaves, and of those that did, most of them owned only one or two. It was a while ago though.

I know a very low % owned slaves.  On the other hand I would put that much trust in history class books.  I remember in Junior High my American history book taught me that Thomas Jefferson was the smartest man that ever lived. 
11297  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Best African Rulers on: January 11, 2005, 07:25:58 pm
Seretse Khama of Botswana.  First head of state for Botswana and set the stage for stable political development and very rapid economic growth.  From the 1960s to 1990s Botswana had one of the fastest rates of economic growth in the world and was called the "African Tiger."
11298  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Index of Economic Freedom on: January 09, 2005, 08:03:31 pm
there public transport is amazing. Nothing is even 30 seconds late, and it is extremely frequent-like a train every three minutes.

Also, the city center is virtually void of cars.

But, that said, it is still a semi-fascist government.

Let us be clear.  Year in year out the population of Singapore vote for the People's Action Party.  No cheating no rigged elections no chads and so on and so on.  The People's Action Party is guilty of gerrymandering to artifically hold down the number of seats of the opposition but on the whole they won all their elections fair and square.  In fact the opposition parties collectively always contests less than a majority of the seats for the fear that if the PAP's postion as the ruling party is endangered no one would risk voting non-PAP. 

On the whole I support the PAP and their no-nonsense approach.  They should take advantage of their political invincibilty to create a socity without dependency and avoid the road of the welfare that other more competitive populist systems conversage toward.  Atlas the PAP still does the same.
11299  General Discussion / History / Re: Abraham Lincoln on: January 09, 2005, 05:01:04 pm
1  One of the worst presidents ever. 
11300  General Discussion / History / Re: The fraudulent 14th amendment? on: January 09, 2005, 04:59:47 pm
14th Amendment is a complete fraud.  For an admendment to pass 3/4 of the State Legislatures must pass it.  In mid 1867 there were 37 states in the Union so that is 28 states needed for ratification.  The Federal Secretery of State got official documents from the states by mid 1867 on the response to the proposed 14th Admendment.  22 states voted yes 12 voted no and 3 did not vote.  Mississippi's rejection did not reach DC in time and was counted as not voting.  So with 13 states opposed the 14th admendment should be dead on arrival. 

I am afraid not.  For the US congress then voted to 1) Declare the Southern States outside of the erstwhile indivisible Union 2) Deny majority rule in the Southern states by the disfranchisement of large numbers of the white population 3) Require the Southern states to ratify the 14th admendment as the price of getting back into the union from which heretofore they had been denied the right to secede.

Southern states were not the only ones that was opposed to the 14th admendment.  New Jersey, Ohio and Oregon all repealed their ratification of the 14th admendment.  To headoff a defeat of the 14th admendment even after cheating tactics with expelling Southern States from voting, more tricks had to be applied. 

Right after the election 1868 state legislative elections of Oregon it passed the 14th Admendment.  But it was done with fraud.  Two anti-14th admendment representitives from Grant County were refused their seats and two imposters filled their seats and voted for the 14th admendment which won by a margin of one vote.  Three days after the vote, and after it is too late, the real representitives were seated and the imposters expelled.

Such is the history of how the 14th admendment was passed.  Bad law, bad tactics.
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