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126  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 20, 2019, 08:28:53 am
There was a shock prefecture poll  in 高知(Kōchi) which showed Abe Cabinet approval down to 26%



But  political blogger showed a 2017 election campaign Abe Cabinet approval poll which had results per prefecture showing that in 高知(Kōchi) approval rating was in the low 30s but with Abe going on to have a pretty decisive win in the election so this most recent poll does not mean that much
127  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 19, 2019, 07:28:29 pm
WB CM and AITC leader organized a massive anti-BJP in Kolkata.  Pretty much all anti-BJP parties are with different degrees being allied with INC (from an INC ally to seeing BJP as a greater enemy than INC) represented





Parties represented are
INC
BSP (INC as local rival but BJP much greater rival in UP)
SP (INC as local rival but BJP much greater rival in UP)
AITC (INC as local rival but BJP is becoming a greater rival in WB)
JD(S) (INC as local rival but current ally against BJP in Karnataka)
NCP (INC ally in Maharastra to take on BJP)
TDP (INC as local rival but need INC alliance to take on its main rival YSRCP in AP)
AAP (INC as local rival but BJP much greater rival in Delhi)
DMK (INC ally to take on main rival AIADMK in TN)
RJD (INC ally in Bihar and Jharkhand to take on BJP)
LJD (INC ally in Bihar to take on JD(U))
NC (INC ally in J&K)
RLD (SP ally in UP)
JMM (INC ally in Jharkhand)
JVM (INC as local rival but currently ally to take on BJP in Jharkhand)
ZNP (rival of INC in Mizoram but sees BJP ally MNF as an even greater rival)

Parties which are on paper anti-BJP or non-BJP who did not attend are
BJD (Rival of BJP in Orissa but for now sees INC as just as big as a rival)
TRS (On paper anti-BJP but in Telanagna INC is its main rival)
YRSCP (On paper anti-BJP but in is the main rival of TDP in AP who is now pro-INC so YSRCP is anti-INC)
AIADMK (Not even anti-BJP but neutral.  But with its enemy DMK being an ally of INC it will be either a de jure or de facto ally of BJP)
INLD (ally of BSP an sees BJP as an enemy in Haryana but sees INC as just as big of an enemy)
128  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 19, 2019, 07:07:10 pm
In Karnataka the last 2 weeks has been a non-stop crisis for the JD(S)-INC government.

The government vs BJP opposition seat breakdown was

Government
  JD(S)          38
  INC             80
  BSP              1
  KPJP             1
  pro-INC Ind  1
------------------------
                 220

Opposition
  BJP          104

But simmering beneath the surface there are 4 concurrent battles
1) JD(S) (which mostly represents Vokkaligas) vs INC rivalry as the CM is JD(S)'s Kumaraswamy and both JD(S) and INC MLAs are fighting for what they see as their fair share of resources and ministries
2) INC infighting between pro-Siddaramaiah (ex-CM and old JD(S) rebel and mostly lower caste) and anti-Siddaramaiah factions (most upper castes)
3) BJP vs INC struggle for the national narrative as the national party with momentum going into the 2019 LS elections
4) Internal BJP infighting between pro-Yeddyurappa (ex-CM who represents Lingayats) and anti-Yeddyurappa forces.

Due to JD(S)-INC battles as well as INC infighting some INC factions seems, starting a couple of weeks ago, to break away from INC.  Then the KPJP and pro-INC independent both broke away from the government which made the government-opposition balance  218-206.  Then 4 INC rebel MLAs disappeared and there seems to be talk that they might defect to BJP.  The BJP itself seems to be divided to push to overthrow the JD(S)-INC government.  BJP's Yeddyurappa is the mastermind of this most recent BJP attempt to take control of the government as this is his last chance to become CM while anti-Yeddyurappa BJP factions feel that doing so would only hurt BJP chances in the LS elections.

Main issue now is will more INC MLAs defect since 4 is not enough.  The Anti-defection law means that all such defectors will be expelled from the assembly and have to run for re-election.  So if the balance is 218-206 right now then the BJP has to get 12 MLAs to defect.  Some can be bribed with money.  Others can be bribed with giving them BJP nominations for LS elections coming up.  But all things equal this seems like a tall order.  Also INC-JD(S) can counterattack by trying to poaching BJP MLAs.

Both INC and BJP have been reduced to "Resort Politics" with to avoid their MLAs to be poached, all of them have been put in luxury resorts with strict control  over outside communications.    The cost of these hotel stays are over $400 a day for each MLA which is a large sum of money in India.  I guess it is worth given how much resources are stake. 
129  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 19, 2019, 06:42:36 pm
https://www.bloombergquint.com/bq-blue-exclusive/sp-bsp-alliance-why-mayawati-akhilesh-said-no-to-rahul-gandhi-and-erred-versus-modi#gs.mZyIN6E3

Makes the argument that UP SP-BSP alliance did not take INC into the the alliance because past history  shows that the INC Upper Caste base is not transferable to its allies.  Namely the 1996 BSP-INC alliance and the 2007 SP-INC alliance.


It also shows that the social bases of the SP-BSP alliance is roughly equal to the BJP+ base.


It also makes an argument that SP-BSP is not completely right since it argues that the OBC and Dalit bases of INC is transferable. 

I mostly agree but I think the transferable nature of the the INC vote really depends on the communal nature of the INC candidate and its ally.  The best way for SP-BSP and INC to take down the BJP is for a tactical alliance where in areas of INC strength the INC runs a Upper Caste candidate to cut into the BJP vote.  In the few BJP-INC marginal seats the SP-BSP should run a Upper Caste candidate to cut into the BJP vote.   Also a SP-BSP-INC alliance might play in the BJP trap of making the election more "Presidential" where Modi's relative popularity and name recognition could help the BJP.
130  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 18, 2019, 02:16:20 pm
For the Jharkhand Grand alliance it seems out of 14 LS seats INC will contest 6 seats, JMM 4, JVM 2, RLD 1, CPI 1.Not sure where that puts CPM or the Maoist CPI(ML) MCC although as I suspected they were not able to be accommodated.  On the whole I am surprised how little JVM got but I guess that reflects the revival of INC in Jharkhand which seems came at the expense of JVM.   


For the assembly JMM will clearly contest more seats as Hemat Soren will be projected as the CM candidate of the grand alliance.  This seems to be the repeat of the paradigm set in the INC-AIADMK alliance in TN in the 1980s and BJP-SHS allaince in Maharashtra in the 1990s and 2000s where the national party contest more LS seats but yields most seats in assembly elections to the regional party. 
131  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: January 18, 2019, 01:53:14 pm
Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate (IND14 and IND18 is the a non-aligned independents in 2014 and 2018 respectively)

                    DPP18 KMT18 MKT18 IND18  Non-voters    Total
DPP14            15.8     4.3       6.5      0.1      2.6             29.3
KMT14             1.6    20.0      8.5      0.1       0.6            30.8
IND14              0.5     0.5       2.9      0.9      0.8              5.6
Non-voters       0.6     0.5       3.5      0.1     29.7            34.4
Total              18.5   25.3     21.4      1.2     33.7

The KMT has historically dominated this deep Blue county and had only lost the county magistrate seat once in 1968 before the the 1980s when the DPP was able to win 3 times in a row as it was able to eat into the KMT Hakka base as well as take advantage of KMT local factional splits.   The KMT by the 2000s had restored order but the factional battle continued.   In 2014 a key KMT factional leader (and ex-county magistrate) ran as a DPP backed independent and took a good part of the KMT base with him to lose narrowly to the KMT candidate who is his old rival.  In 2018 The DPP ran the KMT factional leader's on who clearly does not have the same pull on the KMT base as his father while the KMT incumbent retired on a 2 term limit making this an open seat.  KMT splinter MKT also ran and seem to be the favorite to win before KMT pulled it out

The Ko backed MKT candidate had cross partisan appeal and looked to pick up a large bloc of the 2014 DPP vote.  In the end the 2014 DPP vote had defections to the KMT (4.3) and MKT (6.5)  and lost some to become non-voters (2.6) but kept almost half of its 2014 vote (15.8 ).  It kept enough of the 2014 DPP vote to prevent MKT from winning.  The KMT ran a fairly unknown lightweight as a compromise candidate to balance between different local factions and lost a bunch of votes to MKT (8.5).  Marginal KMT voters that failed to vote in 2014 in the DPP wave did not come out that strongly and mostly went to MKT(3.5).  But the KMT strategy worked.  By keeping the KMT camp outside of MKT unified, losses to MKT was made up by the fact that 2014 DPP defection to MKT was lower than expected.  

As for 2020 it is clear that it really depends on if Ko will run.  If Ko runs then part of the MKT vote could go Ko especially the part that came from the 2014 DPP vote (6.5).  If not most of that will go back to the DPP but the rest will all go KMT.  Just like every election Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +14) will be very strong for KMT at the national level.
132  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: January 18, 2019, 01:31:47 pm
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate (KMTR18 is the KMT rebel in 2018 and IND18 is the a non-aligned independent in 2018)

                    DPP18 KMT18 KMTR18 IND18  Non-voters    Total
DPP14              24.0   10.9     2.1       0.4         6.4          43.8
KMT14               0.7   21.1     2.2       0.1         0.6          24.7
Non-voters         0.9    1.1      3.0       0.4        26.0         31.4
Total                25.6   33.1     7.3       0.9        33.0


The KMT had dominated this county historically but lost it to proto-DPP in 1981 in a shocking defeat.  After that the local factions had drifted to DPP and the KMT only won once since (in 2005.)    2014 was a DPP wave year just like 2018 is a KMT wave year.    Here the 2014 DPP vote had huge defections to the KMT(10.9) and KMT rebel(2.1) and another 6.4 became non-voters.   Only the flit side the 2014 KMT vote was is core vote and very little of it defected to the DPP (0.7) or became non-voters (0.6) but some went to the KMT rebel (2.2).  One would also have expected that marginal  KMT voters would have not turned out in 2014 but would turn out in 2018.  It seems most of that increased turnout went to the KMT rebel.

So the KMT rebel hurt the KMT in the sense that the marginal KMT voter who still must harbor some dissatisfaction with KMT high command came out to vote mostly for the KMT rebel.  Separately had the KMT rebel not run most of the 2014 DPP voter that voted for the KMT rebel (2.1) most likely would have not voted or perhaps voted KMT.

What killed the DPP was mostly the massive net defection to the KMT (10.9-.7 = 10.2) and a large chunk just choose not to vote (6.4).  This seems to be the reason why the KMT won by a large margin despite the KMT rebel splitting the KMT vote and capturing a good part of the marginal KMT voter that failed to vote in 2014.

As for what this means for 2020, it was an open seat and the the DPP was very divided in 2018 with the burden of anti-incumbency while the KMT candidate was very popular and has cross partisan appeal.  The KMT could perhaps count on the 2014 DPP vote that failed to vote (6.4) not coming out in 2020 either but a good part of the 2014 DPP vote that defected to the KMT (10.9) most likely will swing back to DPP.  Assuming most of the 2018 KMT rebel vote flow back to KMT in 2020 it seems that the KMT and DPP should be evenly matched in 2020 in Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6).
133  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: January 18, 2019, 01:20:38 pm
I looked over the methods on the ROC political blog
https://whogovernstw.org/2018/12/25/yuchenchang4/
that used Ecological Inference on the precinct data between 2014 and 2018 elections for mayors/county magistrates that computes implied vote flows



The main problem with the analysis is that it treats most 3rd party candidates in the same bucket as Non-voters since its main goal is try to estimate the Blue-Green direct swing between 2014 and 2018.  I took the raw data and refined it to take into account of all third party votes to get a more clear picture and gives a good idea of how significant 3rd party candidates got their votes.  I will present most of them one county and city at a time. 
134  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 17, 2019, 08:20:35 pm
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ranchi/congress-announces-grand-alliance-in-jharkhand-for-lok-sabha-state-assembly-polls/articleshow/67577945.cms

In Jharkhand, INC announces that it has formed a Grand anti-BJP alliance with consist of INC, JMM, JVM, RJD, CPI. CPM, CPI(ML) and MCC.   The same alliance will contest assembly elections later in the year under the leadership of JMM which is led by former CM Hemat Soren.  It is a surprise INC could get the RJD to be in the same bloc as the Maoist CPI(ML) and MCC as the two forces have rival social bases (RJD have support in small landowners while CPI(ML) and MCC have support in landless laborers.)  Anyway the detail will be in the details as like Bihar getting to a workable seat sharing formula will be hard.  I think in the end CPI CPM CPI(ML) and MCC will break away since the larger parties will not be able to accommodate in the seat sharing.  Otherwise this is a coup for INC to get the old rivals JMM and JVM in the same bloc.

This development means that BJP will almost have to get AJSU to be in an alliance with BJP even if it has to give up a couple of extra seats to AJSU.
 
135  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukrainian presidential election, 2019 on: January 17, 2019, 08:52:49 am
I think Poroshenko is most likely under-rated in these polls.   He has access to resources as the incumbent and if the non-Poroshenko field is split between many candidates and no common opposition candidate energies I think Poroshenko should be better than even money to win re-election.
136  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 16, 2019, 04:55:50 pm
There are rumors that Abe is looking to dissolve the Lower House later in the Spring in order to have a double election (both Lower and Upper House election at the same time) in July.  The calculation would be that the opposition seems to be getting ready for an Upper House election but are totally unprepared in the Lower House seats (opposition-JCP common candidates talks.)  A election at the same time woulds stretch Opposition-JCP resources, energy and coordination so the LDP-KP could sweep in to another 2/3 majority in the Lower house and do well enough in the Upper House to retain an 2/3 Constitutional Revisionist majority.

Similar rumors were circulating in the run up to the 2016 Upper House elections.  In that case Abe choose to go with a delay of consumption tax increase as his October surprise.   This time Abe seems to be looking for another X-factor to help him get a landslide victory.  It could be the 2014 Lower House election trick (surprise snap election while the Opposition is not prepared.)
137  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 16, 2019, 10:45:37 am
The Telegu speaking regions war between TDP and TRS is driving all sorts of alliance formation ahead of LS elections.  TDP and TRS are rivals due to the nature of the AP split of 2014 which created Telenaga.   BJP is fairly weak in both states which leads both parties to try to form opposition alliances that tries to isolate the other.

TDP is trying to form an opposition bloc that is friendly to INC and while not endorsing Rahul Gandhi as PM of the alliance for sure does not rule it out.  TDP's main rival in AP is YSRCP and so TDP needs an INC alliance to beat back YSRCP

TRS is trying to form a Fedreal front which is an opposition bloc that is both anti-BJP and anti-INC and is working to exclude INC from the opposition bloc. TRS's main rival in Telengana is INC and is allied with Muslim based AIMIM so there is a need of an anti-BJP element to it especially when BJP is fairly weak in Telangana anyway. 

If we go state by state and look at key regional parties we can sort of map out what each regional party is likely to do:

AP: YSRCP is for sure going to join up with TRS's Federal Front given that TDP is its main enemy.
     TDP is for sure part of the pro-UPA front since it is the party that is trying to push it.

Telengana: TRS is the leader of the Federal front
                 AIMIM is competing with INC for the Muslim vote across India so is with TRS

Assam: AGP just quit NDA.  As long as it does not go back and given it competes with Ahom votes with INC it is likely to join TRS's Federal Front
            AIUDF sees both INC and BJP as rivals so most likely align with Federal Front perhaps with AGP.

WB: AITC's main rival in WB will be BJP with INC as a minor rival and perhaps tactical ally.  More likely to join the pro-UPA front than the TRS's Federal front both TDP and TRS are heavily lobbying for AITC

UP: SP and BSP see BJP as the main rival and INC as a minor rival and perhaps tactical ally.  More likely to join the pro-UPA front than the TRS's Federal front both TDP and TRS are heavily lobbying for SP-BSP.  SP more likely lean pro-UPA while BSP which suspects that INC is out to poach her Dalit base most likely lean TRS's Federal Front

Bihar: JD(U)'s main rival is RJD so it is with BJP this time
          LJP always goes with the side that gives better deal which this time is BJP
          RJD sees JD(U) and BJP are main rivals and is allied with INC so clearly will be for the pro-UPA front
         RLSP and HAM see JD(U) as their main enemy and since JD(U) is with BJP is more likely to be for the pro-UPA front and alliance with INC

Karnataka: JD(S) is part of an alliance with INC since it needs INC support for its state government.  So in the past it JD(S) would be a prime candidate for the Federal Front since it traditionally see both BJP and INC as rivals this time around it will be part of the pro-UPA front.

TN: DMK has a long history of alliance with INC as a way to counter AIADMK and will be in the pro-UPA bloc
      AIADMK sees DMK as it main rival  so it will have to make a call if it should ally with BJP or join TRS's Federal front. Really comes down to SWOT analysis of BJP alliance
     MDMK wants to go with DMK this time so it will be part of pro-UPA bloc
     PMK,DMDK both were allies of BJP in the past and for now is disillusioned with BJP that for now they will not join up with BJP.  Both with try to see if they can join up with AIADMK or DMK and if not look into TRS's Federal front
     AIADMK splinter AMMK tends to be anti-BJP could either look for a reunification with AIADMK in which case there is no way a unified AIADMK would ally with BJP or look to join TRS's Federal front as AMMK does see DMK as a rival and not ally

Maharashtra: NCP is allied with INC and sees BJP as its main rival  so will go with pro-UPA front
                   SHS will have to make a call on alliance with BJP or perhaps aligning with the Federal Front.  Most likely will go with BJP alliance
                   MNS has taken an anti-BJP position and is trying to get into the INC-NCP alliance but will let be let in due to ideological reasons

Delhi:  AAP will have to make a call on if it wants to ally with INC or join Federal Front as it sees BJP as its main enemy

Punjab: SAD clearly is allied with BJP so this one is easy
            AAP here is both anti-SAD and anti-INC so is a prime candidate for Federal Front. But the Delhi AAP have different incentives (BJP is the main enemy) so this conflict will have to be worked out

Haryana: INLD sees BJP and INC as its main enemy and is allied to BSP.  Is a prime candidate for Federal Front

J&K: NC sees PDP and BJP as enemies and allied with INC so that part is easy. 
        PDP left its bizarre alliance with BJP but still sees NC-INC as rivals so is a candidate for Federal Front

Orissa: BJD see BJP and INC as rivals and is a good candidate for the Federal Front.

Chhattisgarh: INC splinter JCC which is allied with BSP sees both INC and BJP as rivals so most likely will be part of Federal Front

Jharkhand: JMM sees BJP as its main rival so will be allied with INC
                 JVM also sees BJP as its main rival so will most likely join INC as an ally but if seat talks break down might end up going to the Federal Front
                AJSU is in theory allied with BJP but it is not clear seats talks will end up well and AJSU might up aligning with the Federal Front
138  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Finnish parliamentary election – 14 April 2019 on: January 16, 2019, 10:12:33 am
If Centre, NCP and Finns Party get a majority between them is there a chance that Finns Party will join the other two form an ruling bloc or is the Blue Reform split mean that there is no way that Finns Party will join a Center-Right government ?
139  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece 2019 elections on: January 14, 2019, 01:29:55 pm
https://www.thenationalherald.com/226687/without-anel-tsipras-has-votes-to-rule-pass-fyrom-deal/

It seems a bloc of ANEL MPs will blot from ANEL leader Kammenos and Tsipras.  I suspect all this is a Tsipras-Kammenos political theater.  If Kammenos led ANEL is seen as backing the North Macedonia deal then ANEL will clearly lose votes to ND in the Oct election.  This way in October ANEL can still keep its core vote yet Tsipras government survives its full term and get its  North Macedonia  name deal.  Not sure it will work out that well though as what is meant to be fake might become reality.
140  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote on: January 13, 2019, 03:17:06 pm
How will the vote work?  

So we have S (100) and MP (16)  vote for Löfven right?  
And we know that M(70), SD(62), and KD(22) will vote against.  
I read that C(31) will abstain.  
Will L(20) vote for Löfven  or abstain ?  
It seems for the math to work Löfven then Löfven will still be outvoted by M+SD+KD unless C or L can vote for Löfven AND V(28) votes for Löfven with V being a big unknown right now.

If so what is the point of C abstaining?  If they are going to take the "hit" of backing Löfven they might as well have it win a majority and go on to rule.  They they abstain and Löfven goes down would they not get blamed from both sides and lose votes to both sides ?

Abstaining from the vote is in practice a yes vote as government only needs to not have (absolute) majority voting against it.

Ah.  Got it.  Thanks for this.
141  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Greece 2019 elections on: January 13, 2019, 03:16:08 pm
In theory elections will be Oct 2019.  But it seems that ANEL has withdrawn support to the  Tsipras government over the Republic of Northern Macedonia name issue.  Now there will be a calls confidence vote and if  Tsipras then most likely there will be early elections.
142  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote on: January 13, 2019, 03:08:35 pm
How will the vote work?   

So we have S (100) and MP (16)  vote for Löfven right? 
And we know that M(70), SD(62), and KD(22) will vote against. 
I read that C(31) will abstain. 
Will L(20) vote for Löfven  or abstain ? 
It seems for the math to work Löfven then Löfven will still be outvoted by M+SD+KD unless C or L can vote for Löfven AND V(28) votes for Löfven with V being a big unknown right now.

If so what is the point of C abstaining?  If they are going to take the "hit" of backing Löfven they might as well have it win a majority and go on to rule.  They they abstain and Löfven goes down would they not get blamed from both sides and lose votes to both sides ?
143  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Modi and the 2002 Gujarat Riots on: January 13, 2019, 02:57:29 pm
I think it is mostly about the police standing down during the riots.  But it is not clear that was on Modi's orders.   Also there are plenty of communal riots (1984 Delhi and 1992 Mumbai riots etc etc) where you can argue that INC politicians were equally or even more implicit than Modi in 2002 Gujarat.    Back in the 1950s and 1960s when INC was much less dependent on the Muslim vote than today there were mini versions of 2002 Gujarat all over Northern India mostly wiped out by INC political leader for political benefit.  In many cases the social background of the police officers themselves make them sympathetic to the riot perpetrators regardless of the position of the CM. 

What I would say is is there is something to "charge" Modi with is the 2002 Gujarat assembly elections where he ran a very communally charged campaign.  He tried to call an election right after the riots to cash in on the Hindu consolidation but was stopped.  On principle there is nothing wrong with that from my point of view but Indian election law does, in theory, say that caste or communal appeals are not allowed in elections but in reality it is ignored by all sides.  So all in all Modi was not saint in this entire process but I can point to plenty of INC politicians that are no better.
144  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Republicans only: IA-04 election, 2018 on: January 12, 2019, 11:07:37 am
King easily.
145  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 12, 2019, 10:41:12 am
New India TV-CNX Opinion Poll for LS which has it at

NDA   245
UPA    146
Other 152


It is basically the same poll it has from Dec but with different UP results since SP-BSP alliance is formalized.  The poll then adjusted NDA seat count from 41 to 29.


NDA at 245 will now for sure need AIADMK (10), YRSCP(19), and TRS(16) to get to a majority in which case it is very likely Modi will be out and I have strong reason to believe that AIADMK at 10 seats seems unlikely unless there can be a AIADMK-AMMK merger or at least alliance before the LS elections.
146  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 12, 2019, 09:51:45 am
In UP, SP and BSP formally announces alliance.  Out of 80 seats it will be split 38-38 between the two.  The alliance will not contest, as per tradition of SP, the 2 INC Gandhi seats.  Other 2 will be for smaller allies.  I assume by these numbers that SP and BSP will work out how to accommodate RLD later which will come from the two 38 38 quotas.



INC will go into a huddle to work out an UP strategy without being in the SP-BSP grand alliance.
147  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: January 12, 2019, 07:31:59 am
DPP PM Lai(賴清德) resigns after the budget was passed to take responsibly for the DPP defeat.   It is possible he might challange DPP Prez Tsai in the DPP primary in the Spring.


Ironically the new Cabinet will be a "cabinet of losers" with the loser of the New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +2) race Su(蘇貞昌) (who is a former head of DPP and former PM) as the new PM


The new DPM will be Chen(陳其邁) who was the loser of the Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +7) race.


It also seems former mayor of Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +0) and loser of his bid for re-election Lin(林佳龍) will be the new Secretary of Transportation


Prez Tsai and PM Su are long time rivals in the DPP and have a open history of personal animosity.  That she will accept Su as PM seems to indicate that she is determined to win the DPP primary and go on to win re-election.   In many ways people like Su, Chen and Lin are top political talent in the DPP so they coming into the cabinet does make sense even as the optics of "cabinet of losers" seems negative.
148  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 10, 2019, 08:21:29 am
More alliance trouble for BJP.

In the Northeast key BJP ally NPP is under pressure to leave NDA over the new citizenship bill.  AGP already left NDA over it.  Main issue here is this new law will open the way for Bangladesh Hindus to migrate to the India Northeast with a path to citizenship.  Northeast regional parties like NPP and AGP were on the same page with the BJP to block Muslim migrants from Bangladesh to move in the the Northeast and in fact roll them back.  But BJP wants continued Hindu migration into the India Northeast which is bitterly opposed by the local parties that represents Ahom Hindus (AGP) and tribal Christians (NPP and others.)

In UP seeing that BJP could be in trouble nationally and in UP given the SP-BSP alliance, small allies like AD(S) and SBSP are upping the pressure for seats and more quotas for their OBC constituents or else they will quit.  Even these small parties figure that the overall political environment for the BJP now is a lot worse than it was in 2017 and 2014  and now is the time to get their pound of flesh.  Most likely BJP will have to accommodate them.  The BJP backup plan seems to be, in case AD(S) and/or SBSP leaves NDA is to lure RLD away from SP-BSP.  Jats tend to vote BJP during strong BJP years so the BJP-RLD alliance makes sense at the social level to consolidate Jats behind BJP.  Not sure RLD will bit though.

In Mahabharata it seems to be a game of chicken between BJP and SHS.   SHS is pretty much spitting venom at the Modi-Amit Shah combine on a daily basis and praising INC at every turn.  SHS also calls the BJP the Gujarat BJP (in reference to the Modi-Amit Shah Gujarat background) in order to show their support to the growing anti-Modi bloc in BJP.   For SHS it seems every political enemy of Modi-Shah is its friend in public.   It seems SHS's endgame is still to ally with BJP but on a seat split formula which is humiliating for the BJP and reassert the SHS as the senior partner in the alliance.  BJP Prez Amit Shah seems to be having none of this and is taking SHS head on saying that if SHS does not want to ally with BJP, then BJP will crush SHS in the LS elections and win 40+ seats on its own which only provokes more escalated vitriol from SHS.  SHS has made it clear that it support suspected anti-Modi cabinet member, ex-Prez of BJP and key member of BJP Maharashtra Nitin Gadkari for PM after the elections making it clear that SHS wants to reduce BJP MP seat count as much as possible so BJP has no choice but to form a broad coalition government where Modi will have to go.  It just seems the level of public vitriol between BJP and SHS could soon get to the point where neither side could back down from the game of chicken and the two cars will crash to the benefit of INC-NCP. 
149  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 09, 2019, 02:31:08 pm
To get a sense on how the CDP and DPP split is working out at the local level with respect to the old DPJ local base I looked at one prefecture, 滋賀(Shiga), where CDP and HP PR vote share were at par in 2017 and has a history of strong local opposition.   I looked at the candidates for the 2019 prefecture elections, looked at those numbers by breaking down the election districts by rural and urban areas and projected what I expect to be the election result.  

Historically 滋賀(Shiga) has a local branch of DPJ called チームしが or Team Shiga(TS).  This is a local party that was formed by a its anti-LDP ex-governor.   DPJ and TS historically worked hand in hand to take on LDP with DPJ candidates sometimes running as TS candidates.  There is a separate small opposition bloc called 良知会 or Rjo-kai Club (RKC) that works outside of TS.

In 2015 the election result were

Urban districts        
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           20             15
KP              2               2
DPJ-TS      11               8
RKC            2               2
JCP             6               3


Rural districts
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           10              6
DPJ-TS        7               7
RKC            1               1


Total
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           30             21
KP              2               2
DPJ-TS      18             15
RKC            3               3
JCP             6               3

With the LDP doing worse in rural areas due to a large number of 2 member districts where it is split 1-1 between and LDP-Opposition whereas in urban areas the larger LDP-KP base has a impact in larger sized districts where seat distribution is more PR like.


For 2019 TS will work hand in hand with DPP while CDP will run separately with some of the old DPJ candidates going over to CDP.  The split has as clear urban-rural bias.


My 2019 projected result

Urban districts        
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           19             15
KP              2               2
DPP-TS        6              6
CDP            5               5
RKC            1               0
JCP             7               2


Rural districts
           Candidates   Winners
LDP             9              7
DPP-TS        6               6
CDP            1               1
RKC            1               0


Total
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           28             22
KP              2               2
DPP-TS      12             12
CDP            6               6
RKC            2               0
JCP             7               2

One of the incumbent RKC MLAs left the prefecture assembly since 2015 to run for mayor of one the cities in the prefecture.   Better nomination strategy by LDP is able to gain it an extra seat relative to 2015.   The DPJ split work where in urban area it is split down the middle between CDP and DPP while in rural areas it is mostly go to DPP.  In urban areas CDP squeezed out RKC and JCP while in rural areas better LDP nomination strategy I expect to kill off the last RKC MLA.

So looking at this one prefecture  滋賀(Shiga) seems to match my main narrative

1) All things equal DPP will get a greater set of the DPJ organization than its party support would otherwise indicate.
2) DPP will be stronger and rural areas and will inherit a majority of the old DPJ base there
3) CDP will be stronger in urban areas and tend to get a restively greater share of the old DPJ base.
4) Overall the relative balance of power between LDP-KP and opposition will be mostly undisturbed but it really depends on where the CDP surge will be at the expense of (other opposition support of LDP-KP.)
150  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 09, 2019, 11:58:18 am
Sorry if you've mentioned this, but how strong is the CDP at the local levels at the moment? Did most municipal and prefecture DP politicians stick with DP at the time of the schism or has the CDP attracted much of the old left wing of the DP?

What are the major left wing cities in Japan? I know Nagoya is pretty left wing?

I would say most of the old DPJ infrastructure at the local level split along lines that align with the relative strength of CDP vs DPP.  So in places like 北海道(Hokkaido), 東京(Tokyo), and 埼玉(Saitama) most of the old DPJ grassroots went over to CDP.  But in the rural Northeast and South they mostly went with DPP.   An CDP will have strength in urban areas and DPP will be stronger in rural areas.
 This is why DPP will most likely over-perform polls in terms of results and CDP will under-perform since in many rural districts DPP will be the only non-JCP opposition in town and CDP voters will just have to vote DPP.

As for what cities lean Left, I would say

1) Most cities in 北海道(Hokkaido)
2) 盛岡市(Morioka), capital of  岩手(Iwate)
3) 仙台市((Sendai), capital of 宮城(Miyagi)
4) 福島市(Fukushima city), capital of 福島(Fukushima)
5) Most cities in 埼玉(Saitama)
6) 船橋市(Funabashi) and 市川市(Ichikawa) in 千葉(Chiba)
7) 横浜市(Yokohama), capital of  神奈川(Kanagawa)
8 ) The urban parts of 東京(Tokyo)
9) 新潟市(Niigata city) capital of 新潟(Niigata)
10) 長野市(Nagano City) capital of 長野(Nagano) where JCP is fairly strong
11) 名古屋市(Nagoya) capital of 愛知(Aichi)
12) 四日市市(Yokkaichi) in 三重(Mie)
13) Urban parts of 京都(Kyoto) where JCP is fairly strong
14) Urban parts of 大阪(Osaka) used to be very Left have have more turned to a regional populist Right JRP
15) 神戸市(Kobe) capital of 兵庫(Hyōgo) used to be very left but a good chunk of that support has turned to the regional populist Right JRP
16) 高知市(Kōchi city) capital of 高知(Kōchi) where JCP is fairly strong
17) 大分市(Ōita city) capital of 大分(Ōita) where SDP is fairly strong
18) Urban parts of 沖縄(Okinawa) which is more about the USA base issue

Note that in some of these areas like 大阪(Osaka), 名古屋市(Nagoya), 神戸市(Kobe), 東京(Tokyo) the populist Right also has done well in the past so some of these Leftist impulses might be more about opposition to the existing Establishment of Clientelism politics of the LDP.
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