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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 19, 2019, 08:18:06 pm
If Modi wins the election but is denied a majority, how likely is it that another candidate will he able to form a government and become PM?

BJP will have to be below 200 seats and even 180 seats.  Then Modi is out with someone in BJP like Maharashtra key BJP leader Nitin Gadkari. 

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Another less likely BJP leader would be ex-UP CM and BJP heavyweight Rajnath Singh
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Both are in the Modi cabinet today but both have connections with other pro-BJP parities to be able to rally a majority for a NDA government in case BJP falls far short of majority. 
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: March 19, 2019, 05:59:44 pm


Is the DPP in big trouble if Tsai loses the Primary ? I know some anti-Tsai people want the KMT back in control of the Presidential Office Building.

I have a new thread for the ROC Prez election

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=316096.0

But to answer your question, I would say DPP is in trouble one way or another.  I think if it ends up being KMT Chu vs DPP Tsai then chances are Tsai will lose.  If Ko gets into the race Tsai has a chance but it is just as likely she ends up in a humiliating and weak third pace dragging down the DPP with her.  Lai winning the DPP primary at least reshuffles the deck.  The DPP hand could get worse but since they are the underdog you always rather a shuffle of the deck.  Ideally it becomes DPP Lai vs Ko vs KMT Chu.  Lai I think could get to a strong second place and perhaps win if he can provoke the PRC into doing something stupid during the general election campaign.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: March 19, 2019, 02:12:36 pm
There are talks from LDP high command that Abe might run for a 4th term when his 3rd term is up in 2021.  When Abe ran for a 3rd term in 2018 it was already breaking with LDP precedent.    What Abe seems to want to do is that he feels fairly confidant that he will win 2018 Upper House elections and now want to lead the LDP into the next general elections in 2021.

Latest Ashai poll has it at 56-27 opposed to Abe getting a 4th term as LDP Prez.  Note that when asked to name an alternative to Abe within the LDP most respondents could not.  What is key to note that LDP voters are for Abe getting a 4th term as LDP Prez in 2021.
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29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 19, 2019, 12:37:41 pm
Ok, so the word from Bihar is that INC-RJD finally reached a "new deal" after some of the smaller allies revolved at the "first deal."  Now it is going to be RJD 19 INC 9 RLSP 4 HAM 2 LJD 2 VIP 1 CPI(ML) 2.  I guess CPI got cut.  CPI(ML) at 2 make sense as there are 2 seats where CPI(ML) is fairly strong (Siwan and Arrah).  LJD at 2 is out of proportion with LJD strength as LJD is just a Sharad Yadav personality party.  Sharad Yadav has a pretty positive image but no real mass base.  I think RJD "overpaid" for LJD but most likely they wanted the image benefits of Sharad Yadav on the stump.

On the WB front I think the Left Front is making one last effort to at have at least a partial alliance with INC.  With alliances in seats where INC and Left Front are strong they are likely to repeat the 2014 performance of INC 4 seats and Left Front 2 seats (out of 42.)  If it is an all out war I project INC at 1 seat and Left Front at 0.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 19, 2019, 10:56:15 am
In Chhattisgarh it seems BJP has dropped all 10 BJP MP (out of 11 in the state) to prevent a similar meltdown they experienced in the 2018 Chhattisgarh  assembly election at the hands of INC.  That BJP can do this with what they view is limited blow-back from these sitting BJP MPs from running for INC or  as BJP rebels shows the level of discipline and determination the BJP has to winning this election. 
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020 on: March 19, 2019, 09:38:51 am
One thing I never really get about the Lai challenge is that he clearly has become the candidate of pro-independence bloc within the DPP.  The pro-independence bloc which is also allied with DPP ex-Prez Chen has been unhappy with DPP Prez Tsai since 2017 hand have been scheming to try to overthrow Tsai one way or another since then.  

What is not clear to me is why is the pro-independence bloc doing this?   DPP Prez Tsai is pretty much going as far as she reasonably can to push the pro-independence and anti-unification agenda.  

One theory is that the pro-independence bloc are purists and demand that with a DPP legislative majority Tsai should just abolish ROC and declare the creation of a Republic of Taiwan.  I am not sure what is the level of sanity of the pro-independence bloc if this is the case because if she did that the PLA will be forced to invade and the USA will view the PRC as being provoked and mostly stay out of the way.

Another theory is more conventional.  The pro-Independence bloc actually include key wealthy individuals with large industrial and landed interests.  Early in the Tsai administration many of them asks for roles in the government for their cronies and most of those requests were rejected by Tsai and her PM Lin.  This provoked a conflict between Tsai and the pro-independence bloc.

One last theory has to do with the social conservationism of the pro-independence bloc.  There are two types of Taiwan Independence.  Left Independence and Right Independence.  Left Independence is a lot larger and mostly are for Independence due to different social economic and political systems between ROC and PRC.  They tend not to reject their ethnic identity as Chinese but view Taiwan as a separate Chinese state (like Egypt is a separate Arab state) and does not rule out unification if the PRC and ROC social systems somehow converge.  Right independence are socially conservative and tend to reject the Chinese identity at the ethnic and for some even at the biological/genetic level.   Right Independence size are small but a lot more organized and contains a bunch of wealthly individuals.  It is Right Independence that make up most of the money and organisation of the pro-independence bloc.  This group at some level is resentful of Tsai as a women (and unmarried at that) leader and earlier in 2016-2017 also held pro-gay marriage positions which she mostly quietly retracted.  Of course the Right Independence bloc knows that DPP is the only game in town to make progress on Taiwan Independence and part of the DPP coalition does include urban progressives so Right Independence tends to keep quite about their socially conservative views.  But what they can do is to overthrow DPP leaders that does not jive with their socially conservative views  using the excuse that they are not "pure" enough on Taiwan Independence.

The fact is even if Lai wins the DPP nomination and becomes ROC Prez in 2020 unless he wants a full scale invasion from the PLA his policies will be pretty much the same as Tsai today as far as Mainland China policy is concerned.
32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020 on: March 19, 2019, 08:59:06 am
DPP Prez "primary" schedule. 

3/18-3/22 Candidates register.  ex-PM Lai already registered and DPP Prez Tsai is expected to register within the next day or two.
3/27-4/2 DPP party tries to facilitate discussion between the candidates to see if any want to stand down in favor of the other.
4/4-4/9 Televised debates between the candidates
4/10-4/12 Several pollsters conduct polls on behalf of the DPP whose results and then averaged
4/17 Poll results announced and DPP announces the DPP candidate for Prez.

This "primary" will be an "open primary" in the sense that the pollsters will ask "who do you support to be the DPP candidate for Prez?  Tsai or Lai" with no filter for only just DPP or just Pan-Green supporters.   Since there is no KMT candidates yet the poll will not test  how Tsai or Lai does with general election opponents as the 2012 DPP "primary"  did since in 2012 KMT's Ma was the incumbent president. 

Since yesterday a bunch of non-New Tide DPP office holders came out to back Tsai while only some Southern New Tide faction office holders came out to back Lai.  Tsai is clearly winning the enforcement battle.    Of course part of it is moral.  It is just seem as bad form for so many DPP MPs who got elected in 2016 on the Tsai tailcoat to come out for Lai.  I would read any silence by DPP office holders are being de facto pro-Lai.   In an "open primary" it seems Lai should have the edge given the negativity of Pan-Blue and independent voters toward Tsai.

So now Tsai has a strategic dilemma.  If she goes ahead with the primary she faces a likely defeat and humiliation.  One way she can win is to shift to the center and attack Lai as a pro-Taiwan Independence and turn Pan-Blue and independent voters against Lai pro-Taiwan Independence agenda.  The problem is that if she does that she just handed a powerful weapon to the KMT in the general election who will just replay all of Tsai's attacks on Lai against the DPP candidate, regardless of who it ends up being.  So Tsai has a decision to make before 4/2.  Either she starts to catch up to Lai in the polls before 4/2 or she should go all out to attack Lai for his pro-Taiwan Independence position or she should consider dropping out to avoid a humiliating defeat in the DPP "primary" as a sitting president (like LBJ in Jan 1968.)

Lai has his own problems.  His run is based on a premise that the Tsai administration has gone wrong but he was the PM of the Tsai regime for over a year so how does he wash himself of this.  Also just like Michael Heseltine in 1990 UK CON party leadership race, the one that commits regicide usually does not end up with the crown even if it was necessary for the party to survive.  In many ways Ed Miliband turning on his brother in 2010 stained his image with an immoral act that he was not able to win a winnable election in 2015.  Many in DPP might be relived at Lai showing up to give the DPP a chance in 2020 but once Tsai is removed they will all start saying "what have we done?" and start turning on Lai.   
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020 on: March 19, 2019, 08:20:34 am
ROC CEC announces that Prez and Legislative elections will be on Jan 11 2020.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 19, 2019, 07:49:39 am
Times-Now VMR poll has it at

              Seats
NDA         282
UPA         136
Others      125
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This poll also gave state-by-state prediction.  I added up their numbers and got NDA at 280 and not 282.  I think for Meghalaya they falsely counted ex-BJP allies NPP-UDP as NDA when I count them as pro-NDA.   They did not have polls for A&N and D&D both of which should be 1 BJP each which also makes the numbers add up.

Overall I think the poll assumes a Modi wave in Northern Hindi Upper Caste heavy regions.  I question this but if every poll shows this I might have to accept it as fact.  Some of the small state poll results shows some of the polling for small states are just made up and in a sloppy way that does not even take rudimentary political developments in those states into account.   SAD !!!

State by state are

TN which seems to match what I think should take place
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Kerala seems reasonable
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AP seems reasonable
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Telangana - the 1 OTH winner is obviously AIMIM.  I find it hard to believe BJP can win 2 seats here.  They have a shot at winning Secundrabad and nowhere else in my view.
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Karnataka - this seems to assume INC-JD(S) vote base does not jell which is very possible
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WB - vote share and seat seems reasonable given no INC-Left Front alliance.  I do think INC should hold on to Baharampur for 1 seat
                   Seats       Vote share
AITC              31              39%
BJP                11              32%
Left Front        0               15%
INC                0                 8%


Bihar - seems reasonable, if INC-RJD alliance falls apart it could be a NDA clean sweep
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Jharkhand - I think UPA should do somewhat better than this
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Odisha  - this is a shock.  BJP is surging but I assumed that BJD should have the upper hand
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Assam - poll does not take BJP-AGP alliance into account, still seat share seems reasonable
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Maharashtra - I am going to stick to my guns and say UPA does better then this as NMS would tactically support UPA and the BJP-SHS war still has scars
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Gujarat  - vote share seem right.  INC could get a couple of more seats in my view
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UP - I think SP-BSP-RLD core vote are jelling well so unless we have another Modi wave I say SP-BSP-RLD does a bit better than this
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Uttarakhand  - lots of Upper Castes voters here so I guess this is somewhat reasonable.  Still 2014 was such a Modi peak I find it hard that BJP can replicate it.
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MP - seems possible if repeat of a Modi wave
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Rajasthan - list like MP, seems possible if there is a Modi wave in Hindi belt
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Chhattisgarh: INC 6 BJP 5


Delhi - seems reasonable - INC-AAP alliance could have beaten back BJP but that is not to be
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Haryana - find these results hard to believe and seems to imply a Modi wave.  The Haryana  BJP government is not popular.  Agreed INLD imploded but most of the INLD vote should have gone to JJP and not BJP.   Also AAP should do better here than in 2014
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Punjab - I think overstimulates INC.  AAP vote share too high most of which should go to SAD.  It is true that SAD is in shambles as well but the anti-incumbency vote should see SAD through to win some seats.  
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J&K.  JKN at 4 seats make no sense. BJP at 2 which is Jammu seems right.  JKN willing all 3 Kashmir seats seems logical.  I find it hard to believe JKN can win Ladakh.  I guess INC and BJP split the Buddhist vote down the middle and the entire INC and PDP Muslim base goes over to JKN ?
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HP - seems reasonable but not consistent with Haryana and Uttarakhand.  If there is a Modi wave in Hindu Upper Caste dominate areas which Haryana and Uttarakhand poll results seem to show then HP should be a BJP sweep as well.  HP to be fair is not that elastic but in theory Modi wave conquers all according to the poll results in other Hindi states.
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Now comes some small states

Chandigarh
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Puducherry
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D&N H
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Lakshadweep
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Tripura - this is a clear mistake/typo.  No way INC vote share can be in the 30s.  It should be in the low single digits.  BJP will win both seats but its main opponent should be Left Front.
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Sikkim - this poll counts SDF as part of NDA.  It is not clear if that is the case.  BJP broke of its alliance with SDF to ally with SKM who then dumped the BJP the day after the alliance was announced.  The state is SDF vs SKM but it is not clear what are the alliances these parties will belong to before and after the election.
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Arunachal Pradesh
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Goa
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Manipur
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Meghalaya - as mentioned before NPP-UDP (which I assume is the OTH 1) broke off their alliance with BJP but we should view them still as pro-NDA.
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Mizoram - MNF is an ex-BJP ally and should be viewed as pro-NDA
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Nagaland - this results shows that for small states this poll is just making things up.  Just like Tripura INC is now down to single digits.   NPF has since broken up with BJP who is allied with NPF splinter NDPP.  This election will be NDA NDPP vs NPF vs INC where INC is in single digits and NDPP winning by a small to medium margin over NPF.
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35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 2020 on: March 18, 2019, 03:49:54 pm
In Jan 2020 there will also be legislative elections.  There are 73 FPTP seats, 6 aborigine seats (2 3- member districts for Mountain and Plains aborigines respectively) and 34 PR seats (meant to represent Overseas Chinese and also ROC territory on Mainland China but these days are just regular PR seats.)

I wrote something a while ago on the results based on the aggregate lean of districts.  Even if Ko were to run for Prez he will most likely have very few solid FPTP candidate for the "Ko Party."  Right now the election in 2020 looks like a Blue +4 to Blue +6 election so most likely it will be something like Pan-Blues 77 Pan-Green 36 which would be a 2012 election redux.

Looking ahead to 2020 Legislative elections, one can use the same PVI logic on ROC districts to see what would be generic results of the ROC legislative races given a particular Blue-Green lean.  ROC Legislature is made up of 73 FPTP seats, 6 Aborigine seats, and 34 PR seats.  Overall the 73 FPTP seats are fairly symmetrical in terms of seat distribution given a particular lean.  The 6 Aborigine seats lean heavily toward Blue camp while the 34 PR seats lean toward the Green camp since the NP has a floor of 3% but is unlikely to cross the 5% threshold while other smaller Pan-Green either are tiny or, like NPP, will pass the 5% threshold for sure.

I look at the Blue+8 Blue+6 Blue+4 Blue+2 Even Green+2 Green+4 Green+6 Green+8 scenarios.

                  Blue    Green    Blue        Green     Blue  Green   Blue  Green
                 FPTP     FPTP  Aborigine Aborigine    PR     PR      Total  Total
Blue+8         58        15        6            0            20     14        84    29
Blue+6         56        17        6            0            19     15        81    32
Blue+4         50        23        6            0            18     16        74    39
Blue+2         43        30        6            0            17     17        66    47
Even            36        37        5            1            16     18        57    56
Green+2      29        44        5            1            16     18        50    63
Green+4      24        49        5            1            15     19        44    69
Green+6      17        56        5            1            14     20        36    77
Green+8      16        57        4            2            13     21        33    80

If we look at the 2008 2012 2016 results (2008 was the first year ROC had this FPTP system versus multi-member districts)

                  Blue    Green    Blue        Green     Blue  Green   Blue  Green
                 FPTP     FPTP  Aborigine Aborigine    PR     PR      Total  Total
2008            60        13        6            0            20     14        86    27     Blue+8 election
2012            46        27        6            0            18     16        70    43     Blue+4.5 election
2016            20        53        5            1            14     20        39    74     Green+6.5 election

Which matches the chart above fairly well.

For 2020 I think the most likely scenario right now is a narrow Tsai re-election with a Green+1 election and a very narrow Pan-Green legislative majority.  In such a case the DPP regime will need the support of Pan-Green "ally" NPP to pass laws.

                  Blue    Green    Blue        Green     Blue  Green   Blue  Green
                 FPTP     FPTP  Aborigine Aborigine    PR     PR      Total  Total
2020           33        40        5            1            16     18        54    59     Green+1 election
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 2020 on: March 18, 2019, 03:33:58 pm
Lai jumping into the DPP Prez primary could end up destroying the all powerful DPP New Tide faction.  The New Tide factions is really co-led by Lai and ex-Kaoshiung mayor and DPP Prez Tsai COS Chen (陈菊).
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Now Chen is in a difficult situation of having to pick her co-leader of New Tide over her boss DPP Prez Tsai.  Of course one reason why Tsai picked Chen to be her COS is for her to "manage" New Tide faction for her.

The old New Tide faction MO is "do not be King but be Kingmaker".  New Lai is breaking with tradition.  I think New Tide faction might break down the Middle where Southern New Tide/Tainan sub-faction of New Tide will back Lai and the Northern New Tide/Chen sub-faction will back Tsai.  In which case the New Tide faction splits down the middle.  And Lai better win the primary because if he losses it is as if a key Satrap tried to overthrow the emperor and fails.  The said Satrap and his family and the region he lead will be in big political trouble. 

Lai is taking a huge gamble in doing this.  It is said that key New Tide members who knew about Lai's decision have  been trying desperately to get him not to throw his hat into the ring and instead wait for 2024.  They argue, potentially correctly, that Tsai will most likely lose 2020 so Lai can pick up the pieces to lead DPP in 2024.  I guess Lai felt that a) 2020 still might be winnable b) Potential winners from outside the DPP like Chu, Ko or Han could come to power and make a deal with the PRC which he felt he had to come in and stop and c) If someone like Chu or Ko or Han wins in 2020 then it will be very hard to defeat them in 2024 when they run for re-election and that means Lai's chance is 2028 in which case he will be old News and not even in the running to lead the DPP.
37  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Elections of 2019- You Decide: Indian General on: March 18, 2019, 03:22:25 pm
Tactical vote for UPA.

I want a Modi-less NDA government.   Since NDA clearly have the edge, tactical vote for UPA to reduce the NDA margin of victory so Modi is moved out in favor of someone else from the BJP.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 2020 on: March 18, 2019, 01:58:13 pm
With Lai getting into the DPP primary it seems Prez Tsai is not backing down so we will have a contested DPP primary.  Everyone seems to think Lai will win easily.  It does not look that way to me.

The pro-Lai pro-Independence think-tank Taiwan Braintruest just came out with a poll which was done before Lai announced.  These numbers are pretty much as good as it is going to get for Lai and as bad it is going to get for the KMT.

DPP Prez Tsai approval/disapproval:  28.2/53.4
DPP "primary" between Tsai vs Lai: Lai 50.9 Tsai 29.2 (but for DPP supporters it is Lai 48.1 Tsai 43.1)
KMT "primary" between Chu vs Wang vs Wu: Chu 43.8 Wang 33.8 Wu 6.1 (but for KMT supporters it is Chu 67.0 Wang 14.5 Wu 7.8 )
Party support: KMT 36.8 DPP 24.6 NPP 15.6 PFP 1.7 NP 1.2

Prez trial heats
KMT Chu vs DPP Tsai: Chu 51.1 Tasi 37.9
KMT Han vs DPP Tsai: Han 50.1 Tsai 41.6 (Han does worse than Chu)
KMT Chu vs DPP Lai: Lai 46.6 Chu 44.1
KMT Han vs DPP Lai: Lai 48.6 Han 44.6
KMT Chu vs DPP Tsai vs Ko: Chu 33.9 Ko 30.9 Tsai 29.0
KMT Han vs DPP Tsai vs Ko: Han 35.4 Tsai 30.6 Ko 27.9
KMT Chu vs DPP Lai vs Ko: Lai 35.1 Chu 31.8  Ko 27.9
KMT Han vs DPP Lai vs Ko: Lai 35.3 Han 34.7 Ko 24.1

So even the most pro-DPP pro-Lai poll has Lai ahead of Tsai in DPP voters 48.1 vs 43.1.  Even in trial heats Lai does a bit better than Tsai.    This means if Tsai really hits back against Lai over the next month this small gap could be close I can see Tsai winning this "primary."  She might end up being damaged but in March April Tsai and Lai primary campaign would push up media coverage of the DPP race and if Tsai manages to defeat Lai it might even enhance her position relative to Ko and Chu in the general election.  Granted a sitting incumbent facing a primary challenge is not good but Tsai is already in a dire situation and any reshuffling of the cards is a chance for her to improve her position.

One way or another it does not see like a slam dunk that Lai will defeat Tsai in the DPP "primary."  A lot will depend on the rules.  Will it be Lai vs Tsai series pf polls ? Will such polls filter out only DPP supporters?  Will the polls be more Prez trial heats? Either way Tsai is withing striking distance of Lai even in a pro-Lai poll.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 2020 on: March 18, 2019, 01:51:41 pm
Then we have Ko (柯文哲) who was elected in 2014 as Taipei mayar as a pro-DPP independent and won re-election in 2018 narrowly after breaking with the DPP in a 3 way race with KMT and DPP.  He is unconventional and represents anti-politics with appeal to the cynical youth who have rejected conventional politics.  He was pro-Green in terms of Mainland China  but take flip flopped several times  and has played himself as having connections with the CCP who he can "manage" without giving away the farm.  
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Ko has great personal appeal but seem to struggle in transferring his support to others.  This means if he runs and wins he will have almost no MPs in the legislature to push his agenda.  Ko's strategy seems to be wait and see if DPP or KMT falls apart.  If either one does he will come in and try to win over most of that party's base and win enough of the other party's base to win the election in a 3 way race.
40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 2020 on: March 18, 2019, 01:46:20 pm
On the KMT side the front runner is Chu (朱立倫) who ran and lost badly to Tsai in 2016.  The consensus in the KMT was that 2016 was due to the meltdown of the Ma regime and Chu should be given a second chance.
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Chu's main opponent for now is ex-Speaker Wang(王金平).  Wang is from the South and has great networks within the KMT and outside the KMT.  His main problem is that he is seen as not "pure" enough in opposition to the DPP and does not seem to stand for anything other than to make friends with everyone.
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KMT Chairman Wu (吳敦義) who is also ex-PM and ex-VP could also run but he is so far behind in the polls that most likely he will not try. Wu was always better as a backroom broker than a mass leader so him not running might be for the best.
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Then we have Kaohsiung mayor Han (韓國瑜) who was the hero of the 2018 local elections.  Han is a KMT outsider and ex-MP whose political career was mostly washed up by the early 2000s.  But was asked by Wu to run for the Kaohsiung mayor  position in 2018 and was able to catch fire as a symbol of the anti-DPP wave.    There is a view that if Taipei mayor Ko gets into the race and KMT's Chu polls behind Ko then there will be a "Draft Han" move.
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Also in the pan-Blue camp we a pro-KMT independent and ex-PM Chang(張善政).  He is an academic who then went on to run computer giant Acer but with clear pro-KMT views.  He served as PM under the Ma administration in 2016 and received good marks across the political spectrum.   He seems to want to run as a pan-Blue candidate.    Most likely if the KMT candidate polls well he will not push his case and will try to get himself on the KMT ticket as VP or work out a deal where he gets the PM position again in a KMT administration.  If the KMT nominated candidate does not poll well then Chang will asked that he runs as a pan-Blue independent that can appeal to independents.  
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41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020 on: March 18, 2019, 01:36:11 pm
With the end of the 3/16 by-elections and now that DPP ex-PM Lai has thrown his hat into the DPP "primary" and challenge DPP Prez Tsai I think the boundary has been crossed from the 2018 ROC local elections to the ROC 2020 Jan Prez and Legislative elections.

DPP Prez Tsai (蔡英文) has low approval ratings (mid to high 20s) and saw a big defeat in 2018 local elections (although not as big as many make it out to be).  Since Jan 2019 she has been slowly recovering in the polls based on pushing the anti-unification line and seemed determined to run for reelection.
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Today she got a big shot when New Tide faction and ex-PM Lai(賴清德) threw himself into the DPP "primary".
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Just a word on ROC "primaries."  They are usually a series of polls which are done on behalf of the party in question (be it DPP or KMT) which are then averaged for the party chairperson to use to make a call on which candidate to nominate.  Sometimes these polls are "which candidate in said party do you favor", sometimes the results are filtered for just those supporters of said party.  Sometimes they are trial heats vs other party candidates to see which candidate would do better in teh general election.

DPP Prez Tsai starts out behind but Lai is not that much head of her and she can clearly make up ground by the end of the "primary" in mid April when DPP Chairperson (who is pro-Tsai) will make a call based on polling results.  As expected New Tide DPP office holders are coming out for Lai and anti-New Tide DPP office holders are coming out for Tsai.  

It also seems those that back DPP ex-Prez Chen are mostly coming out for Lai. Ex-Prez Chen was arrest and jailed for corruption back in 2009 after he left office and has been out on medical parole which is a total sham.   Ex-Prez Chen has been pushing Tsai to pardon him and Tsai has refused based on the fact it will cost her independent votes in her re-election campaign.  Lai is making pardoning ex-Prez Chen as part of his plank which would put more pressure on Tsai.  
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Everyone is saying that Lai would win the DPP primary.  I do not think it is a slam dunk.  Tsai has the power of the office and an entire month to turn this around.  
42  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, Brexit imminent...maybe... on: March 18, 2019, 12:02:47 pm
The currency market seems to be discounting this.  After the news came out on Bercow's decision GBP fell 0.3% but came right back.  I suspect the currency markets was already pricing in May's deal not passing this week anyway so no vote does not make that much of a difference.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 18, 2019, 11:52:48 am
The alliance news last couple of days have been a disaster for INC.  First it seems the WB alliance with Left Front has broken down.  Had Left-Front and INC formed an alliance I figured that INC and Left front could retain their 4 and 2 seats from 2014.  Now if both INC and Left front contest everywhere I  figure INC could be down to 2 or even 1 seat and Left Front will be wiped out.  It will be mostly BJP that will gain these seats.  In the end I suspect they will work out at least some tactical deals but they are cutting it close.

In Bihar the RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP-LJD-CPI-CPI(ML) seems close to falling party.  The smaller parties like HAM VIP and CPI(ML) are demanding more seats which RJD is willing to accept by giving up a few seats as long as INC also so as well.  But INC insist on at least 11 seats (RJD is saying that INC will have to go down to as low as Cool and the alliance is at the brink of falling apart with some of the smaller allies going with RJD and others with INC.  This could mean that BJP-JD(U)-LJP will sweep Bihar with 38 or more seats out of 40.   I think in the end they will come up at least a tactical alliance but the perception that the alliance cannot get its act together will harm both RJD and INC.

In J&K it seems for now JKN and INC alliance talks have fell apart.  I think given the Kashmir terrorist attack in Feb the BJP is is going to win the 2 Jammu seats anyway.  But if INC takes on JKN in Kashmir it could throw the race to PDP despite a clear JKN advantage there and if JKN runs in Ladakh it could throw the race to the BJP despite a clear INC advantage there. 

In Delhi it does not look like the INC-AAP alliance talks are going anywhere given the anti-alliance position of the Delhi INC.  Most likely it will not take place and the BJP will sweep Delhi.

In UP all signs are that the SP and BSP vote bases are consolidating while the BJP is holding on to its Upper caste and OBC base.  That leaves INC with very little chance of winning seats beyond the two Gandhis.  INC position of 15+ seats pretty much put off SP-BSP for any alliance talks.   The only question now is will INC play spoiler to  SP-BSP or BJP which would depends on the type of campaign and candidate INC runs.  In a couple of seats where SP-BSP are very weak there might be  chances of anti-BJP tactical voting to help INC from SP-BSP but if INC goes all out to take on SP-BSP this will most likely not take place.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 18, 2019, 11:40:58 am
What has happened with the Left front?! A total collapse. Losing support first to AITC in West Bengal and now to BJP?! A losing Tripura to BJP! Are voters realy moving straight from CPI/CPM to BJP?

The Left Front in WB came into power in 1977.  Then despite their Left position at the national level they co-opted the urban middle and industrial classes to create a clientist system to ensure that the Left Front stays in power.  So the Left Front vote base by the 1990s became actually pretty center-right.  What kept the Left front in power was that post-1991 its main rival INC needed the Left Front help to fight against the BJP and did not go all out to dislodge Left Front.  The AITC split from INC to take on Left Front.  AITC too the center-right approach by allying with the BJP which did not generate results in this fairly Leftist state.  The big Left Front mistake was in 2008  when they broke with INC over the USA nuclear deal.    INC then joined AITC who dropped BJP since the INC vote base was larger.  Then AITC shifted dramatically to the left to attack the Left front from the Left flank.  This was wildly successful since by the 2009 the Left Front became a Centrist outfit with both Left wing activists but also a strong Middle and industrial class base.  AITC took the left vote from Left front.  Then the BJP came in to 2014-2019 take the right vote from Left front leaving it a hollow shell.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Thai general election - March 24, 2019: WTF?!?! on: March 18, 2019, 11:33:24 am
So the 4 parties in the running are

Pheu Thai -  pro-Thaksin populist
Democrat Party- anti-Thaksin and pro-establishment
Palang Pracharath - pro-Junta
Future Forward - Center-Left Progressive

The polls have Pheu Thai ahead with a small lead but it does not look like any party will form a majority. Most likely a  Democrat Party and Palang Pracharath post-election coalition government but that is a wild guess.   What Pheu Thai  has to hope for is that pro-Thaksin voters in the rural North are afraid to tell pollsters their preferences but come out in large numbers election day to vote Pheu Thai to sweep the North.
46  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, Brexit imminent...maybe... on: March 18, 2019, 11:16:49 am
It seems Bercow has banning another vote on May's deal unless it changes significantly which will for sure not take place by 3/29.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: March 18, 2019, 09:53:59 am
With Lai getting into the DPP primary it seems Prez Tsai is not backing down so we will have a contested DPP primary.  Everyone seems to think Lai will win easily.  It does not look that way to me.

The pro-Lai pro-Independence think-tank Taiwan Braintruest just came out with a poll which was done before Lai announced.  These numbers are pretty much as good as it is going to get for Lai and as bad it is going to get for the KMT.

DPP Prez Tsai approval/disapproval:  28.2/53.4
DPP "primary" between Tsai vs Lai: Lai 50.9 Tsai 29.2 (but for DPP supporters it is Lai 48.1 Tsai 43.1)
KMT "primary" between Chu vs Wang vs Wu: Chu 43.8 Wang 33.8 Wu 6.1 (but for KMT supporters it is Chu 67.0 Wang 14.5 Wu 7.8 )
Party support: KMT 36.8 DPP 24.6 NPP 15.6 PFP 1.7 NP 1.2

Prez trial heats
KMT Chu vs DPP Tsai: Chu 51.1 Tasi 37.9
KMT Han vs DPP Tsai: Han 50.1 Tsai 41.6 (Han does worse than Chu)
KMT Chu vs DPP Lai: Lai 46.6 Chu 44.1
KMT Han vs DPP Lai: Lai 48.6 Han 44.6
KMT Chu vs DPP Tsai vs Ko: Chu 33.9 Ko 30.9 Tsai 29.0
KMT Han vs DPP Tsai vs Ko: Han 35.4 Tsai 30.6 Ko 27.9
KMT Chu vs DPP Lai vs Ko: Lai 35.1 Chu 31.8  Ko 27.9
KMT Han vs DPP Lai vs Ko: Lai 35.3 Han 34.7 Ko 24.1

So even the most pro-DPP pro-Lai poll has Lai ahead of Tsai in DPP voters 48.1 vs 43.1.  Even in trial heats Lai does a bit better than Tsai.    This means if Tsai really hits back against Lai over the next month this small gap could be close I can see Tsai winning this "primary."  She might end up being damaged but in March April Tsai and Lai primary campaign would push up media coverage of the DPP race and if Tsai manages to defeat Lai it might even enhance her position relative to Ko and Chu in the general election.  Granted a sitting incumbent facing a primary challenge is not good but Tsai is already in a dire situation and any reshuffling of the cards is a chance for her to improve her position.

One way or another it does not see like a slam dunk that Lai will defeat Tsai in the DPP "primary."  A lot will depend on the rules.  Will it be Lai vs Tsai series pf polls ? Will such polls filter out only DPP supporters?  Will the polls be more Prez trial heats? Either way Tsai is withing striking distance of Lai even in a pro-Lai poll.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: March 18, 2019, 05:16:16 am
In a shock DPP ex-PM Lai filed his papers to enter into the DPP primary to challenge DPP Prez Tsai.  One assumption of Tsai's relative poll recovery and DPP avoidance of a catastrophic 3/16 by-election was that Tsai should have a clear path toward getting the DPP nomination a primary challenge.  Lai entering into the primary race throws all those assumptions out the window.  Perhaps DPP's non-catastrophic performance in the 3/16 by-election convinced Lai that DPP could have a chance in 2020 and he figured that if he takes out Tsai he could lead DPP to victory in 2020.  Of course this could backfire and destroy DPP ahead of time.  I think this move increases the chance of a Ko 3rd party run and increase the chances of a draft Han movement in the KMT.

Before this move I thought things were headed toward DPP Tsai vs KMT Chu.  Now DPP Lai vs Ko vs KMT Ko chances have gone up.     
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 17, 2019, 08:30:57 pm
In WB where current talks between Left Front and INC for an alliance which tentatively has it at  Left front 25 INC 17 has broken down for now with INC in a huff saying that Left Front was not serious about a deal. I do not know why.  Both Left Front and INC have bleed so much support to BJP the last couple of years that even if the Left Front vacated all seats other than a dozen seats that make up the Left Front strongholds I doubt the INC will not win any of them beyond the 4 seats which form the INC strongholds in Northern WB.  I think in the end there will still be at least a partial tactical alliance.  The fact that Left Front and INC are talking about an alliance shows how much both have fallen since 2004 when BJP and AITC were allies fighting Left front.

2004 WB LS elections (AITC alliance with BJP)     
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC+       42          1         29.11%
AITC         29          1          21.04%
BJP           13          0           8.06%

Left Front  42        35          50.72%

INC+        41          6          15.15%

AITC then formed an alliance with INC to take on Left Front after the falling out between INC and Left Front in 2008-9 at the national level.

2009 WB LS elections (AITC alliance with INC)
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC+      42          26         45.67%
AITC        27          19         31.18%
INC         14            6         13.45%
SUC          1            1           1.04%

Left Front 42         15          43.30%

BJP          42           1           6.14%

Then AITC and INC had a falling out in 2012 after AITC-INC took power at the state level followed by the Modi wave which had the effect of a BJP surge at the expense of Left Front and to some extent INC.

2014 WB LS elections
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC         42         34        39.79%

Left Front  42          2         29.94%

INC          42           4          9.69%

BJP           42          2        17.02%


After that a tactical alliance between Left Front and INC were defeated by AITC in the 2016 assembly elections which further weakened both with BJP eating into both and making it the main opposition to AITC.   Assuming that Left Front has an alliance with INC in 2019 my current projection has it at

2019 WB LS elections
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC          42        26        38.2%

Left Front+ 42         6         23.9%
Left Front   25         2         13.8%
INC           17         4          10.1%

BJP           42        10         34.8%

where Left Front and INC forming an alliance was just enough to save their strongholds but them losing support to BJP across the board allows BJP to capture a bunch of AITC seats.

It is just amazing how much Left Front and to some extent INC have fallen since 2004.
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019 on: March 17, 2019, 04:19:44 pm
BJP CM of Goa Manohar Parrikar passed away after being critically ill for some time.  This comes a a bad time for the BJP in Goa as the current BJP led government is formed by cobbling together various INC splinters/rebels and local BJP sometimes ally and sometimes rival MAG.  With INC splinter GFP already pulling support for the BJP government is pretty much already in minority. 

Now the BJP will have to pick a successor and get a vote of confidence through.  Most likely a series of political and most likely monetary bribes will be needed to get get such a vote through (like getting the lone NCP MLA to go over to the BJP camp.)  One way or another it will look ugly.  But the cost of losing CM position to INC is even worse for the BJP.
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