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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 30, 2019, 05:26:46 pm
The key for the opposition from being blown out in the 2019 Upper House elections by the LDP-KP is to form alliances in the 32 single member districts to take on LDP 1-on-1 much like it did in 2016 successfully.  This is critical this year since out of 32 such districts 29 of them have LDP incumbents which will be hard to knock off even in a favorable environment for the opposition.   

This process is harder this year than in 2016 since now we have two medium sized non-JCP opposition parties (CDP and DPP) that first have to come up with a common candidate and then work with JCP to get JCP to stand down.  In 2016 there was just one large opposition DP party and a bunch of micro parties like PLP (now LP) and SDP.  DPP having a separate identity and aligned with anti-JCP Rengo union makes DPP JCP talks harder.

Of course if you look at this chart of all known candidates it seems that some progress has been made even a lot more needs to be done.  The Right hand side are Center-Left opposition parities with light blue being CDP, Deep Blue being DDP and Red JCP.  Middle block are LDP-KP candidate, and the right side of the chart are Third Pole candidates (HP JRP etc etc).  The candidates are color coded according to likelihood of winning.


This chart list out the single member districts on what the non-JCP opposition have agreed to as common candidates with their party ID (CDP is light blue, DPP is deep blue, and independent is Grey).  What is not show is if the JCP has agreed to stand down yet.


It would be somewhat useful to go prefecture by prefecture.  First we have the 32 single member districts.

1) In 青森(Aomori) CDP-DPP has agreed to back a CDP candidate and work is ongoing with to get JCP candidate to stand down.  LDP will have the edge here but opposition has a chance.

2) In 岩手(Iwate) where it is Ozawa territory, JCP has preemptively stood down.  Working out the opposition candidate requires input from LP which has its hands full with DPP-LP merger so I guess the nature of the common opposition candidate will come later.  As long as all opposition parties work together LDP should be at a disadvantage here. 

3) In other Northern and fairly competitive prefecture like 宮城(Miyagi), 秋田(Akita), 山形(Yamagata), and 福島(Fukushima) DPP is stronger but CDP support is rising.  Since these seats are winnable CDP-DPP are still working on the common candidate before working with JCP to get them to stand down.  The LDP is beatable in all of them to different degrees but it will depend on the candidate and how to overcome historical poor relationships between JCP and opposition parities in this region.

4) In both 栃木(Tochigi) and 群馬(Gunma) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a CDP candidate and work is ongoing to get JCP to stand down.  Not sure it matters that much as either way LDP will win.

5) In 山梨(Yamanashi) which is competitive but the LDP just won a governor race by an unexpectedly large margin no common candidate have been agreed upon let alone talks with JCP to get JCP to stand down.

6) In 新潟(Niigata) which will be competitive no common opposition candidate have been agreed to but most likely willl be a CDP candidate.  JCP has already preemptively stood down as there is a very positive relationship between the JCP here and the other opposition parties.  If all opposition parties can unite behind a candidate the LDP might be at a disadvantage here.   

7) In 富山(Toyama) no common opposition candidate has emerged and the race is so hopeless very likely the opposition will hand the seat to JCP to run.

8 ) In 石川(Ishikawa) CDP-DPP has agreed to back a DPP candidate. Work ongoing to get JCP to step down.  Will not matter since LDP will win no matter what.

9) In 福井(Fukui) CDP-DPP has agreed in principle to back a "woman independent with a legal background" but no name has emerged let alone with talks with JCP to get them to stand down.  Will not matter as LDP will win no matter what.

10) In 長野(Nagano) it is simple since there is a DPP incumbent (in 2013 長野(Nagano) was a 2- member district) so he will be the common opposition candidate.  Problem here JCP is quite strong here and have a poor relationship with DPP so getting JCP to stand down would be hard but I guess doable.

11) In 岐阜(Gifu) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a CDP candidate and work is ongoing to get JCP to stand down.  Not sure it matters that much as either way LDP will win.

12) In 三重(Mie) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a regional Mie based party (which is more aligned with CDP) candidate.  Main problem here is the local Mie party is very hostile to JCP so it would be tough to get JCP on board.  As long as they do the LDP will be underdogs here.

13) In 滋賀(Shiga) is the most messed up one of all.  This prefecture is lean LDP but it is not clear how the JRP vote here will go so in theory if could be competitive.  Main problem here is the CDP and DPP are both equally strong here and both have nominated a candidate.  So they have to work that out first.  CDP is on the rise here and would say their candidate should be the common opposition candidate.  DPP says their candidate is an ex-governor and is also a strong candidate.  And we did not even get to the JCP standing down part yet.

14) In 奈良(Nara) and 和歌山(Wakayama) CDP-DPP have agreed to a common candidate in the form of an independent although the independent in 和歌山(Wakayama) has a DPP background. 
 They are still working on JCP standing down.  Depending on how the JRP vote goes 奈良(Nara) might be competitive but overall LDP will win no matter what in both prefectures.

15) In the single district but dual prefecture 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) which is a strong LDP area, there are no common CDP-LDP candidate yet.   Most likely they might just hand this one to JCP since it is hopeless anyway.

16) In 岡山(Okayama) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a CDP candidate and work is ongoing to get JCP to stand down.  Not sure it matters that much as either way LDP will win even though this prefecture in the past had been competitive.

17) In Abe's home prefecture of 山口(Yamaguchi), CDP-DPP have agreed to support a DPP candidate and the JCP already preemptively stood down. Does not matter as LDP will win by a landslide one way or another.

18 ) In the single district but dual prefecture 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi), there is no common CDP-DPP candidate.  JCP is strong in 高知(Kōchi) so they might be handed this district since it is hopeless anyway.

19) In 佐賀(Saga) there is no common CDP-DPP candidate yet but there are talk of this rural prefecture tiring of LDP so there is a tiny chance of upset.  Most likely they will come up with something and then try to work with JCP to stand down.

20) In both 長崎(Nagasaki) and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a DPP candidate and the JCP already preemptively stood down. Does not matter as LDP will win by a landslide one way or another.

21) In both 熊本(Kumamoto) and 大分(Ōita) CDP-DPP has agreed to support an independent while JCP already stood down.  大分(Ōita) is competitive under these circumstances but is at best tossup for opposition while 熊本(Kumamoto) will go LDP no matter what.

22) In 宮崎(Miyazaki) CDP-DPP did not work out a common candidate yet but JCP already have stood down.  Does not matter as LDP is going to win one way or another.

23) In 沖縄(Okinawa) a regional MSCP will run with support of all opposition parties including JCP.  The MSCP incumbent is not running so it will be close and will depend on how the JRP vote goes.  In the end due to the base issue the LDP should be underdogs.
77  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem on: January 30, 2019, 07:54:59 am
I do have a question:  Say The the Cooper amendment which would extend Article 50 to 12/31/19 passed.  Is that something that the UK decide unilaterally?  Even if it passed would not the EU have to agree to that as well ? 

Overall it seems May's strategy is still to get her original deal passed by waiting until the night of 3/29 when it will become clear that there is no majority for No Deal Brexit, no majority for delaying Brexit ergo there has to be a default majority for the May deal.  All the stuff she will be up to talking to the EU is just a smokescreen of showing that "she is trying to get a new better deal."
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 29, 2019, 07:52:08 pm
The nature of the 2014 and 2017 LDP Lower House landslides were a surprise.  It is not reasonable to go back to 2009 since that was a fluke.  On the other hand one would expect 2012 to be a fluke as well with the anti-LDP vote split down the middle between DPJ on the one hand and the JRP-YP on the other hand.  As JRP-YP declined you would have expected a more competitive landscape.  

I looked into this about a year ago after the 2017 Lower House elections when LDP won a large number of district seats.    I used 2003 as a calibration point.    2003 was a "normal" wave-less LDP-DPJ election. In that election DPJ-SDP won 106 out of 300 single member district seats.  While it was not a very large number it was enough to stop LDP-KP far away from 2/3 majority even as LDP-KP won 49.73% of the PR vote.  In 2017, between CDP HP JCP SDP LP and various pro-opposition independents only 59 single member districts were won out of 289 while JRP won 3 seats.    This gave LDP-KP a bare 2/3 majority despite the fact that LDP-KP PR vote share was 45.80%.

I looked at the seats DPJ-SDP won in 2003 and looked into which ones were won by LDP-KP BOTH in 2014 AND 2017 and found 59 such seats.  I looked into why and came up with these following reasons:

1) 2 - were won by DPJ in 2003 as flukes since it involved the LDP vote being split
2) 8 - are still competitive despite LDP winning both in 2014 and 2017 is quite winnable in the next election  
3) 2 - looks like the district swung pretty far to LDP without an obvious reason
4) 7 - Rise of JRP as a regional party split the anti-LDP vote and throw the races to LDP
5) 2 - Rise of JRP as regional party acted as a gateway drug for ex-DPJ voters to vote LDP even though JRP is not competitive
6) 13 - Northern Urban districts where the rise of Third pole parties (JRP and YP) acted as a gateway drug for ex-DPJ but now pro-Third Pole voters to vote LDP even as Third pole parties are not competitive
7) 2 - Southern Rural districts where the rise of Third pole parties (JRP and YP) acted as a gateway drug for ex-DPJ but now pro-Third Pole voters to vote LDP even as Third pole parties are not competitive
8  ) 23 - DPJ winners had some sort of LDP or pro-LDP background and are able to eat into the LDP vote base since many of them were from the great LDP civil war of 1993 but as they left the scene the district reverted

So the relative DPJ success in the 2000s itself was on large fluke based on LDP rebels that ate into the LDP vote and failure to grow a farm league of local prefecture level politicians PLUS the rise of Third Pole parties which split and even shifted anti-LDP votes produced the current world of LDP landslides.  
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 29, 2019, 04:17:52 pm
As to why LDP always seems to win I will go back to what I wrote back in 2015

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200118.msg4832320#msg4832320

Quote
I wrote about this before but it is interesting to talk about the reason/nature of LDP domination of politics in Japan.  It is based on 3 facts which reinforce each other

1) LDP all things equal is the ruling party at the national level
2) LDP dominates local politics at the prefecture level
3) KP is locked into alliance with LDP at the national and local level in thick and thin

These facts are reinforced by the following set of facts

1) LDP has the ability to contain and manage conflicts of various factions all within the LDP ecosystem with a ruthless attention to make sure intra-factional conflict are managed in such a way that everyone that has real grassroots support and can win are still in LDP.  In   In other words the rule: "If you win you are LDP"
2) Prefecture governments cannot run budget deficits so prefecture governments must have relationships with the national governments for funding and subsidies to be able to provide pork to the voting population and various local vested interest.  So an up-an-coming local politician needs to have connections to the national government though some organizational means.
3) National elections are won in small district level where the personal vote are critical to winning. The personal vote is grown by politicians at the prefecture level which is really a farm league for national politics.
4) KP desires above all legitimacy in mainstream society and media.  This is critical especially after the 1995 Tokyo subway sarin attack by the  Aum Shinrikyo cult.  It was after 1995 when the KP which was formed as an anti-LDP force became pro-LDP so it can me seen as mainstream.

So the net affect of all this is:

A rising local politician with local grassroots support all things equal join a LDP faction at the prefecture level and becomes part of the LDP prefecture government.  The range of positions of these LDP factions are such so that it gives the local politician the ability to join the faction that more fits with his ideological and local profile.  He then rises up in the national level adding his personal vote to the LDP+KP vote base to win national elections and add to the LDP majority which in turn is a source of funding for the next generation of rising local politician.   

A key part of all this the state of local prefecture politics in Japan which I spend some time looking at. I will report my findings as I pointed out, LDP success in local politics along with KP support locally as well is a key if not THE key linchpin of LDP domination of Japanese politics.

Since LDP success is built on strong local grassroots support there is no single point of failure of
being depending on one charismatic leader although having one also helps. 

As for why LDP seem to win in landslides that has to do with the FPTP system in Lower House election districts and enough 1- member districts in Upper House elections.  The anti-LDP oppistion are usually unable to unite around a common anti-LDP candidate.   What is especially positive for LDP is in Upper House multi-member districts is where LDP tend to be weaker but the multi-member district nature means the seat allocation is PR-like to ensure LDP and KP get their fair share.  It is 1- member rural districts where LDP tends to be strong and usually sweep.  In the Lower House LDP just sweep all rural districts since the LDP vote there are often above 50%.  In urban districts where the LDP is weaker various populist Right opposition parties are strong and they will have no truck with JCP or even CDP so the anti-LDP vote will be divided there.   
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 29, 2019, 11:23:55 am
The Japanese Upper House MP have 6 year terms and there are elections every 3 years so there are two separate classes of Upper House MPs (like the USA Senate have 3 classes.)  The current class up for re-election 2019 class have history of volatile "wave" like results. While the class that was elected in 2016 have a history of more muted results.

History of Class up for re-election in 2016
1992 - Standard LDP victory
1998 - Significant LDP setback
2004 - LDP-DPJ draw
2010 - Minor DPJ setback - Minor LDP victory
2016 - Minor LDP victory - DP revives

History of Class up for re-election in 2019
1989 - Major and unprecedented LDP defeat at the hands of SPJ-Rengo
1995 - Significant LDP setback at the hands of NPF
2001 - Major LDP and one can argue unprecedented LDP landslide victory
2007 - Major LDP setback at the hands of DPJ and allies
2013 - Significant LDP victory - DPJ nearly destroyed 
2019 - Huh

So other than the 1998 significant defeat of the LDP, all elections relating to the Class who are up for re-election in 2019 are wave elections and all wave elections are in the class who are up for re-election in 2019.

What is interesting is the 2019 election seems a lot like 2016 which is "wave-less."  Of course that could change between now and July.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 29, 2019, 09:01:13 am
An example of how UP INC is trying to cash in on Priyanka Gandhi's Upper Caste appeal.  These posters are coming up in a good part UP where Upper Castes are more numerous.



Note the comparison of Priyanka Gandhi to her grandmother Indira Gandhi and that her picture is more prominent than INC leader and her brother Rahul Gandhi.  And of course there is the religious appeal with Hindu deity mixed in as well.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 29, 2019, 08:51:45 am
idk if there is a separate thread for the general election right now, but I wanted to share the first poll in a very, very long time that the INC is AHEAD in





Yeah, I posted that a few days ago
Generally anti-BJP Deccan Herald did a state by state back-of-the-envelope of each state for the LS election

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/will-narendra-modi-come-back-713960.html

And concluded that if BJP did not get SHS to join it in an alliance, even if INC failed to form an alliance with TDP in AP and AAP in Delhi that the INC+ will edge out BJP+ ~190 to ~170


The analysis seems to assume the the Modi magic is completely gone and BJP has to fight based on basic alliance fundamentals and the ebb-and-flow of anti-incumbency.  One should see this as a floor of the BJP+ bloc and cap of the INC+ bloc. 

It is really not a poll but a survey where Deccan Herald asks political correspondents in each state to give their assessment.  In many ways I am sympathetic to their views, especially in Northern India where poll seems to overestimate BJP, in my view, given the historical cycle of incumbency and anti-incumbency as well as recent assembly election results.  On the flip side, the polls are what they are and a lot of times when the only argument for something is "It cannot be" the answer is often: "It is."   

Anyway the key point here is that this is really not a poll but a projection based on ground reports.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: January 28, 2019, 11:25:27 am
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +8)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate(DPPR18 was the 2018 DPP rebel and IND14 was the 2018 independent)  

                    DPP18 KMT18 DPPR18 IND18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14             26.5     3.4      1.5       0.6       9.3           41.3
KMT14              0.7    29.6     0.3       0.3       0.3           31.2
Non-voters        1.9     4.3      0.2       0.2      21.1          27.7
Total               29.1   37.3      2.0       1.1      30.7

This rural county has historically been dominated by the KMT but the DPP started being competitive here at the national level in the 1990s.  The powerful pro-KMT Chang faction still kept the KMT in charge and was only overthrown in 2005 when the KMT lost the county magistrate seat for the first time ever.  In 2014 the KMT ran the sister of the Chang faction leader who was a very strong candidate but she was defeated in the 2014 DPP wave in the race for an open seat.  The DPP winner went on to alienate certain DPP factions but was expected to win re-election.

The KMT ran the same strong candidate as 2014  and she kept the race close.  In the end she won by a large margin as the 2014 DPP vote splintered  with a very large bloc (9.3) going to non-voters in a anti-DPP wave year.  The KMT candidate also got a solid net swing relative to the 2014 DPP vote  (3.4 vs 0.7) and gained some marginal KMT voters that did not vote in the 2014 DPP wave year but came out to vote this time (4.3)  The DPP rebel did not help but the scale of the KMT victory made it  irreverent to the result.

As for 2020 it is not clear that the power of the pro-KMT Chang  faction will be out in force.  Some of the DPP demobilization relative to 2014 was not part of the anti-DPP wave but anger by local DPP factions against the DPP incumbent.  Most likely some of the 2014 DPP vote that went to non-voters(9.3) will come back in 2020 for DPP.  If the KMT Chang faction goes all out in 2020 then the KMT could potentially fight the DPP to a draw.  If not the DPP should have a small edge here now the the DPP incumbent has been moved from the scene.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 28, 2019, 07:48:02 am
Fuji Evening Times magazine came out with their projection for 2019 Upper House elections.  It is pretty negative for LDP but usually at this time of the year these projections are pretty bad for LDP anyway.  Most of it is about the media company needing to generate sales of their magazine so a "shocking" projection are more likely to generate sales.  So these projections should be seen as some sort of floor of LDP performance.



         District    PR    Total    Implied PR vote
LDP      32        17      49              32.0%
KP         7          7       14             13.5%
CDP      15        15      30             28.5%
DPP       5          3        8               6.0%
JCP        2          5       7                9.5%
HP         1          0        1               1.5%
SDP       0          0        0               1.5%
LP          1          0        1               1.5%
OPPN      9                   9           (Opposition joint candidates)

Which gets LDP-KP to 63 seats a bare majority out of 124 seats up for grabs.   Of course one has to read this as the worst worst possible result for LDP.

The various media outlets will come out with these negative projection for LDP to generate sales and then a couple weeks before the election come out with "real" projections that is much more favorable to LDP and much more likely to be accurate.

Same magazine also did a project for Lower House and came up with LDP losing around 55 seats and CDP gaining 70 seats.
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 27, 2019, 10:28:34 pm
A picture is worth a thousand words

I found this picture at the SP-BSP press conference a few days ago announcing formally the SP-BSP alliance quite interesting


First on both sides there are larger than life pictures of the current leaders of SP(Akhilesh Yadav) and BSP(Mayawati).  It is sort of comical that at a press conference with both these two leaders you still need larger than life pictures of both of them in the same room.  What is also interesting are the picture at the Far Top Left and Far Top Right of the room.  On the BSP side is Dalit icon Ambedkar who really founded the pro-Dalit RPI and not BSP but BSP claims his legacy. On the SP side is old Socialist icon Charan Singh who founded BLD and is the mother party of SP.  Akhilesh Yadav's father and founder of SP Mulayam Singh Yadav was a key sidekick of Charan Singh.

What is important here is that it is Charan Singh that is shown and NOT SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav who has been overthrown by Akhilesh Yadav in 2017 and has been kicked upstairs by his soon.  Of course Mulayam Singh Yadav has came out opposing the SP-BSP alliance but does not seems to any political strength to do anything about it. 

In the same vein BSP founder Kanshi Ram who is Mayawati's mentor is nowhere to be seen.  Part of the reason is that Mayawati has most purged the BSP of Kanshi Ram supporters since Kanshi Ram was kicked upstairs by Mayawati in the late 1990s before passing away.

This picture shows the that how both leaders want to monopolize current and recent past history of their parties and would only acknowledge founding leaders who very distant and could not be a threat to their power within their parties. 
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics on: January 27, 2019, 10:10:58 pm
RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)



Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.



It seems that as Podemos support goes down over the last few month that support should flow to PSOE.  It seems if anything that support if flowing to VOX.  It could be the flows are more complex then that. 
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 27, 2019, 10:04:28 pm
Thinking about the what Rahul Gandhi is up to when he played the Priyanka Gandhi card led me to think more big picture on what the goals of INC are.

The fact of the matter is that despite a good set of 2018 assembly election results the INC are still in an existential crisis.  The INC is structured in a way where it must be seen by its various factions as
a) led by a member of the Gandhi clan AND
b) is the natural party of governance 

The BJP landslide defeat of the INC followed by defeats of the INC in various assembly elections in the 2014-2017 period has called b) into question.  While the view in Southern India (Karntaka, AP, Kerela, TN and Telenagan) this year is that BJP might not and most likely will not come back to power, the view in Northern India is that the BJP led by Modi will come back to power.  If the BJP comes back with a strong Modi government, then various INC factions in Northern India will start to defect over to BJP en masse after the 2019.  As a result the INC goal this year is

a) Ensure that even if BJP emerges as the largest party and forms the government, it must be be seen as getting as setback and the government formed must appear weak AND
b) Ensure that the INC does well enough to be seen as the main alternative to BJP in 2024 or earlier when double anti-incumbency will drag down BJP and hand power back to INC

The fact of the matter is even as all the polls show the BJP now down to some 200s and even if we accept that they might even overestimate BJP in Northern India the BJP will have at worst 180 seats or not that much below that.  Just like projections now show INC at 100 seats.  Even if it does better it will not do THAT much better then that.  So the INC goal this year is to ensure that the BJP forms a weak government then to capture power themselves.  Rahul Gandhi also correctly figured that in 2019 he will not have earned spurs within INC to make a bid for power this year anyway.

In fact I think what is not talked about is that the fact that BJP's Nitin Gadkari who is the current BJP minister of transport now stands almost as much of a chance of being PM as Modi does.  I think the political talking heads seems to underestimate the resentment by various factions within BJP, RSS, and other NDA allies (or potential allies) toward Modi and that if BJP falls below 200 seats they will all come up to demand someone like Nitin Gadkari takes over.


I would say the odds of who will be PM after the 2019 elections are

Modi                 40%
Nitin Gadkari     40%
Other BJP leader 5% (Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh, etc etc)
Rahul Gandhi      5%
Other INC          5%
Third Front PM    5% (Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Chandrababu Naidu etc etc)

The reality is that with BJP at 180 or slightly below that at worst there is a fairly small chance of a non-BJP PM.  It really comes down to who it is.  For INC to survive they need BJP to do poor enough that Modi is most likely out as PM.  In fact if I am right about these media polls as overestimating BJP support in Northern India  then Modi's chances of coming back as PM might be more like 30% not 40%.

For Rahul Gandhi working to stop the BJP juggernaut fufills one condition for INC to survive but then he must demonstrate that the INC is a viable as a natural party of governance.   For that he has to show that INC is at least a top tier two party in UP and not one that is languishing in the single digit support.  This is where Priyanka Gandhi comes in.  Priyanka Gandhi has strong appeals to Upper Caste voters (most of which have shifted over to BJP over the years in UP) as Rahul Gandhi needs to play her as a card now to try to pull in some Upper Caste votes from the BJP and push INC support to at least low double digits in UP.

If so then this strategy is fraught with risk.  Is is true that there are some Upper Caste resentment toward the BJP over the last few years as BJP CM Yogi Adityanath seems to focus more on the non-Yadav OBC base of BJP.  But Upper Caste voters tend to very tactical.  For them to vote INC and risk letting in SP (Upper Caste voters are fairly negative on SP) they have to be sure that INC is on its route to revival in a seat by seeing some of the old INC Dalit and Muslim base shirt over to INC.  So the risk here is for INC to get the Upper Caste vote from the BJP it first has to make a pitch for the Dalit and Muslim votes from SP-BSP and in the process risk throwing the race to the BJP by splitting the anti-BJP vote if the Upper Caste vote does not dutifully defect.  I think the INC will have to play this in UP seat by seat and do its homework on the relative strength of INC vs SP-BSP to see if it worth its while to make a true bid to win by clawing Dalit-Muslim votes from SP-BSP and then deploying  Priyanka Gandhi  to fetch the Upper caste vote from the BJP. Where it cannot do this the INC might be better off running a second tier Upper Caste kamikaze candidate whose only job is to pick up a few small percentage of the vote, mostly from the BJP Upper Caste bloc but it will not be in large numbers and help the SP-BSP in a close race.   If the INC can try to be viable in about a dozen seats and then tactically help SP-BSP then this plan could work.   It is just high risk but I guess Rahul Gandhi figures he has no choice since not going for this optimal result risk the INC falling apart post 2019.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 27, 2019, 09:19:18 pm
Nikkei poll on PR section of 2019 Upper House elections

LDP  41%
CDP  12%
CDP   1%
KP     5%
JCP    4%
JRP    2%
LP     1%
SDP  1%
HP    0%


Note that a similar poll in May 2016 had LDP at 44% and DP at 12% and the PR vote ended up LDP 36% and DP 21%.  The way I would read this poll is to add LDP+KP support and add a couple of percentages to be the LDP-KP PR support rate.  Lots of KP PR voters claim to pollsters that they are LDP supporters. 
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: January 27, 2019, 04:29:15 pm
Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate(KMTR18 was the 2018 KMT rebel)

                    DPP18 KMT18 KMTR18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14             32.5    5.6      0.2          6.7           45.0
KMT14              4.7  20.8      0.6           0.4          26.5
Non-voters        1.0    2.2      0.6         24.7          28.5
Total               38.2  28.6      1.4         31.8

Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +8) is similar to Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) in the sense that it was always dominated by the KMT but suddenly in 1981 both counties flipped to the opposition and since then the DPP or proto-DPP has dominated the county.  The KMT have not won a county magistrate race here since 1993 in a controversial election with heavy KMT negative campaigning against the DPP incumbent Su (and now PM as well as and long time rival of Tsai).  Both Prez Tsai and PM Su are from this county which adds to the DPP strength here.

In 2014 as a part of the DPP wave the DPP won the open seat here in a landslide.  The DPP winner went on to have a fairly strong administration and seems that it will win easily against a fairly lackluster KMT candidate.  The result involved a lot of vote swaps between the 2014 KMT and 2014 DPP vote with a slight net advantage to the KMT (5.6 to 4.7).  The 2014 DPP vote shift to KMT is clear (5.6) as part of the anti-DPP wave.  The 2014 KMT vote shift  to DPP (4.7) is less clear.  Most likely they are local KMT factional voters that shifted to the DPP incumbent as part of deals made between the DPP and the local KMT factions especially given the fact the fairly lackluster KMT candidate was not expected to win.  The strong Pan-Blue bloc performance in the county assembly seems to imply this sort of ticket splitting.   The 2014 DPP vote clearly lost at lot of ground to non-voters (6.7) as the 2014 DPP wave shifts to an anti-DPP wave in 2018.  The KMT in 2018 closed the gap but mostly did not come close to dislodging the DPP due partly to the KMT rebel that split the vote and the fact that it failed to mobilize KMT marginal votes that did not vote to come out to vote in 2018(only 2.2). 

As for 2020 it is clear that DPP will lose a lot of its edge here but it being Tsai's come county the DPP lead here should still be significant. 
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: January 27, 2019, 02:58:19 pm
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Green +1)

All numbers are in % of eligible electorate(KMTR14 was the 2014 KMT rebel, TSU14 was the 2014 ex-TSU independent, DPPR18 was the 2018 DPP rebel, KMTR18 was the 2018 KMT rebel, and TSU18 was the same 2014 ex-TSU independent running again with support from Ko.)

                    DPP18 KMT18 DPPR18 KMTR18 TSU18 Non-voters    Total
DPP14           23.8      7.9      0.5        0.0      0.5           5.3         38.0
KMT14            1.4    23.4      0.1         0.1      0.2           2.8        28.0
KMTR14          0.0      0.4      0.0         0.5      0.0           0.1          1.0
TSU14            0.1      0.5       0.0        0.0      2.6           0.5          3.7
Non-voters      2.1      4.4      0.1         0.1      0.1         22.4        29.2
Total             27.4    36.6      0.7         0.7      3.4         31.1

In 2014 DPP won by a larger than expected margin in an open seat election in a pro-DPP wave election.  The 2014 DPP winner and incumbent went on to have a mediocre administration and was vulnerable in a 2018 election that has any sign of an anti-DPP wave.  It turned out that 2018 saw a large anti-DPP wave and the KMT candidate won a large net swing from the DPP relative to 2014 (7.9 vs 1.4).  The DPP also lost a good chunk of its 2014 vote to non-voters (5.3).  In addition marginal KMT voters that did not vote in 2014 came out to vote in 2018 for the KMT candidate (4.4) to add up to larger than expected KMT victory over the DPP incumbent.

As for 2020 the large scale of DPP defection to the KMT and non-voters plus the return of marginal KMT voters are a fairly bad sign for the DPP.  This county historically has been fairly elastic at the local level but somewhat less elastic at the national level.  That is about the only saving grace for DPP which for sure will face a significant swing against it here but perhaps a smaller scale than these numbers suggest.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 27, 2019, 09:56:43 am
Back to topic of opposition unity.  With DPP and LP in talks with a merger and it seems in response CDP and SDP are in talks to from a common caucus and possible merger.

92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 27, 2019, 09:54:46 am
All votes counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       49.7%
CDP-DPP    41.8% (incumbent)
ex-YP          4.3% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             4.1%

It seems the key aspect of this race was that the LDP-KP candidate was able to consolidate all the pro-LDP forces.  The key factor here is the ex-YP candidate was reduced to 4.3%.  It seems that this 4.3% is almost all anti-LDP voters and all the pro-LDP voters went over to the LDP-KP winner.  This same ex-YP candidate ran in the Upper House election for 山梨(Yamanashi) in both 2013 and 2016 with the results being

2013
LDP          36.1%
pro-DPJ    19.2%
pro-DPJ    15.7%
YP            14.9% (old DPJ incumbent but went over to YP)
JCP            9.1%


While in 2016 the DP and JCP formed an alliance with the JCP backed the DP candidate but the old DPJ incumbent from the 2013 election cycle that went over to YP ran again

2016
DP              43.0%
LDP           37.8%
ex-YP        16.7%
HRP            2.5%

It seems clear that this ex-YP candidate pulled in in 2013 and 2016 15.7% and 16.7% of the vote a good part of seems to be pro-LDP voters.  This time around that entire bloc of voters did not vote for this ex-YP candidate and went back to the LDP leading to the LDP unexpectedly large victory.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 27, 2019, 08:45:24 am
With 89% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       50.2%
CDP-DPP    42.7% (incumbant)
JCP             3.6%
ex-YP          3.6 (have DPJ background as well)
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 ROC local elections Nov 24 on: January 27, 2019, 08:44:10 am
2 Legislative by-elections took place as a result of MPs that resigned as part of the local elections of 2018.  They are

Deep Green Taipei City (新北市) 2nd district (Green +7) and  Taichung City(臺中市) 5th district (Blue +4).

Taipei City (新北市) 2nd district was a disastrous result for the pro-Ko forces as the pro-Ko candidate did poorly which shows the pro-Ko vote is not transferable.  The DPP ran a strong candidate to ensure they do not lose this seat while the KMT and pro-KO candidate are second tier candidates.

DPP        47.76%
KMT       39.03%
pro-Ko    11.99%
pro-NPP    1.11%
Ind.          0.11%

Looking at precinct results it seems that the Green vote consolidated around the DPP candidate this time and the pro-KO candidate if anything took more votes from the KMT candidate.   Assuming the pro-Ko candidate took equally from both Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps the Green-Blue gap is around 10% which in Green+7 district implies a national Blue-Green split of 52/48.


Taichung City(臺中市) 5th district saw the KMT run a solid candidate while the DPP candidate was a second tier candidate.  The result was

KMT        57.78%
DPP        38.62%
Pro-PFP    3.42%
Ind.         0.18%

The Blue-Green lead was over 22% which in a Blue+4 district implies a national Blue/Green split of 57/43.

I think given the differences in candidate quality and the fact that Central Taiwan Province is drifting Blue last election while Northern Urban Taiwan Province is drifting Green the true Blue/Green national split is somewhere in the middle, something like 55/45 which would be consistent with recently polling.

The fact that the DPP was able to win Taipei City (新北市) 2nd district by a significant margin implies that DPP has not collapsed as a result of the 2018 local election anti-DPP wave and that Tsai for sure will certainly be the DPP candidate for Prez in 2020.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 27, 2019, 08:30:35 am
With 78% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       50.3%
CDP-DPP    42.5% (incumbant)
ex-YP          3.8% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             3.4%

It seems the main battle now is will LDP still be above 50% ?
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 27, 2019, 08:15:37 am
With 46% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP           49.3%
CDP-DPP    41.6% (incumbant)
ex-YP          4.8% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             4.4%

Usually for governor races the incumbent have a large advantage.  For LDP to take out this pro-opposition incumbent is a great coup and another feather in the cap of Abe.  This is pretty negative news for the opposition for the upcoming Upper House elections as  山梨(Yamanashi)  is an example a rural 1- member swing district the opposition has to win in order to stop a LDP landslide.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July) on: January 27, 2019, 08:11:31 am
山梨(Yamanashi) governor election seems to have went LDP's way over the CDP-DPP incumbent

Exit poll seems to have the LDP candidate winning around 50% of the vote in a 4 way race


Main reasons of victory (according to NHK breakdown)
Is that LDP supporters formed 46% of the voters while KP formed 3% of the voters most of which went to the LDP candidate.  CDP formed 11% of the voters, DPP 3% and JCP 3%.  The a good part of the critical independent bloc(30%) also voted for the LDP candidate.
98  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Why arent the Liberal Democrats polling better on: January 26, 2019, 10:27:13 am
The UK is like America right now, it's very polarized over Brexit so as a result people aren't willing to vote for third parties right now. Plus, I think the type over voter who would want to vote LibDem still haven't forgiven the party for entering coaltion with the Tories.

Yes, but with Corbyn clearly Eurosceptic even if most of LAB are not, you would think that middle class liberal-progressive pro-Euro votes should migrate to LibDem in polling even if they might tactically vote LAB election day.
99  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Trump recognizes Juan Guaidó as "interim president" of Venezuela on: January 26, 2019, 10:21:26 am
As much as I am a supporter of Trump overall and obviously I have negative views toward Maduro I think Trump made a mistake here.  We should let them fight it out on their own.  Now, if Guaidó  wins out then Trump/USA will "own" the result of Guaidó plus add to the resentment at the local level toward a perceived Yankee Imperialism.   Just like Xi and Putin made a mistake in putting all their eggs with Maduro which now looks like are going down the drain, the USA/Trump should not make the same mistake.  Just stay out of the way and see what emerges.
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections on: January 26, 2019, 10:11:51 am
News Nation poll for Rajasthan LS elections
       
        Seats   Vote share
BJP    16           40% (47% if filter out do not know)
INC     9           35% (41% if filter out do not know)


The C-voter survey a few days ago had it at

        Seats   Vote share
BJP    18           49.4%
INC     7           44.0%


So both polls are similar.  I generally do not buy it.  The trend has been the winner of the assembly election a year earlier then expands on their advantage in the assembly election so I would think the result should be something like INC 15 BJP 10.  Still I guess the entire BJP premise is that Modi is able to pull in an unusual size of marginal votes in Northern India.  I guess we will only know when the results come out.
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