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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to widow of Sgt. La David Johnson: "He knew what he signed up for" on: Today at 03:39:23 pm

Did any of you thing this might mean: He knew what he signed up for and he was brave to go, in spite of knowing.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: They thought they were going to rehab. They ended up in chicken plants on: Today at 03:19:51 pm
hard work builds character.  it is rehab.

The theory that working in a chicken plant is a cure for drug addiction is probably the most mind-blowing thing I've heard this week.

It may an incentive to get off drugs.  There are a number of possibilities levers to pull in getting off of drugs.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: A Republican I was speaking to... on: October 10, 2017, 10:59:19 am
How many conservatives do you believe actually think that registering to vote is any harder than it should be?

In my state, you can fill out a card and mail it in.  It has 10-13 questions. 



ID needed to is either a PA ID (Driver or non-driver), or a number of others, including a utility bill.  It only has to be shown the first time the voter votes in that election district. 

https://www.pavoterservices.pa.gov/documents/VoterApplication_English.pdf

This isn't rocket science. 
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mattis orders Pentagon to allow transgender troops to serve, pending review. on: August 30, 2017, 02:36:11 am
Does this apply to people already serving and prospective service members, or just people already serving?

We don't know yet.

I can understand not wanting to pay for the process, but once it has been paid for, I don't see a problem.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Grade Trump's handling of Hurricane Harvey. on: August 30, 2017, 02:32:04 am
I cant really give him a grade yet. George W. Bush's biggest failures in Katrina were during the aftermath.

This.  He seems to have done a lot of prep, in terms of money and positioning personnel, but it is still too early. 
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump set to remilitarize local police on: August 30, 2017, 02:20:33 am
Is anyone here seriously complaining about police getting bullet proof vests?  Anyone complaining about the vehicles under in Houston to rescue flood victims?

Some of the things I do question, but these things, no way. 
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump confuses two blond Finnish reporters for each other on: August 30, 2017, 02:13:20 am
Imagine the uproar if they weren't white.

Imagine the crickets chirping if Obama had done this.

Are you $hitting us? Fox News would have it on a 72 hour loop, and it'd become the white grandparent's favorite Facebook meme for weeks.

If they weren't white, people would still be pissed, but much as here, just consider it typical Trump being a $hitbag of a human being.

Or, he saw two people that he never met before, in a crowded room, that shared a distinctive feature and mistook one for the other.

8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: (Idiot) Trump tells Texans suffering hurricane: "What a crowd, what a turnout" on: August 30, 2017, 02:07:12 am
The people there seem to like him. 
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump slams Obama for "pardoning" Chelsea Manning, calls Arpaio a "patriot" on: August 30, 2017, 02:05:43 am
Chelsea Manning did literally nothing wrong.

Joe Arpaio is easily the worst living American.

You must be incredibly dumb to believe Arpaio is the worst living American.

Charles Manson? Better.

Ted Kaczynski? Better.

Jared Fogle? Better.



You forgot Jerry Sandusky, et al. 
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Hurricane Harvey - how will Trump's approval weather the storm? on: August 30, 2017, 02:02:49 am
Has anyone noticed how the governor, county judge, and mayor are cooperating and how all the people are pulling together.   
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Hurricane Harvey (non-political) megathread on: August 30, 2017, 01:59:45 am
A levee breached and now Houstonians are being told to evacuate.

This is fast approaching worst-case scenario, and we still have a whole week to go even before the storm stops. It's crazy looking back on it that Katrina only lasted as a hurricane for about 40 hours after landfall, and only about a day after that before it was completely gone.

Most of the bayous are going down.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Hurricane Harvey (non-political) megathread on: August 26, 2017, 02:36:20 pm
Are such summer storms common in the US?
Anyway, I really hope it won't cause too much damage and everyone stays safe.

Yes, the storms are reasonably common.  In 1900, several thousand people dies when a hurricane hit  Galveston, TX, about 190 miles north of Corpus Chisti.  There is a record of one that hit New Jersey in the 18th century.

We keep on getting better at predicting their path. 
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If democrats win PA in 2020, where do they make gains? on: August 24, 2017, 10:43:44 pm
In regard to PA, I think the answer is that Trump, ran up his numbers because of higher turnout in the rural "T" part of the state.  Both times Bush the younger ran, he did better in Phila, as a percentage of the vote, than Trump.  McCain in 2008 did slightly better in Phila than Trump did.  He did worse in Allegheny County than every Republican candidate since 2000.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gun to your head on: August 12, 2017, 10:59:19 pm
Nuclear? No. Conventional? Likely.

This.  We are much closer to a resumption of the Korean War than to a nuclear exchange. 
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Torch-bearing white nationalists march ahead of alt-right rally on: August 12, 2017, 10:57:08 pm
Can we now call the alt right "Radical Christian Terrorists"?
We've heard about "Radical Islamic Terrorists?"
We've heard about atheist Communists and the evil that they have done.

It seems that there are evil people in every "tribe".

I'm fine with that, but I would say Radical White Nationalist Terrorists. 
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: North Korea Mega Thread on: August 12, 2017, 10:43:29 pm
Kim is bluffing, at this point, about the continental US. 

First, North Korea threatened the US mainland.  Then, the next day, they change that to Guam, the closest US possession to  North Korea.  They wouldn't change that if they could strike the continental US.

Beyond that, North Korea can at least hit Guam with conventional weapons, at least.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The TRUMP inauguration thread on: January 20, 2017, 12:26:22 pm
Short speech. Very populist

I wish he would have said "us" instead of "you."

Oh, well, we now have a president that had a guest spot on The Jeffersons

Movin' on up ....
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The TRUMP inauguration thread on: January 20, 2017, 12:19:46 pm

Noticed it as well.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Two Guesses on: December 27, 2016, 01:24:13 am


1. What enduring coalition was formed here? Trump deepened support among working class whites, a demographic that Republicans already had strong ties to and one that is declining in numbers as they age and people become more and more educated. Every year this group's electoral influence shrinks noticeably as college educated white influence increases (at least as a share of the white electorate)

We don't know what coalitions will be permanent or not. 

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2. Trump bombed among the voters that will replace the aging boomers/silent generation people. In fact, he did 4% worse among the 30-44 group than Romney, which is something you'd expect as the more liberal Millennials and younger genx'ers age into that bracket - These voters are heavily Democratic and have shown little movement away from the Democratic Party as they have aged.

And, there is no guarantee that the current 30-44 will not turn to Trump.  For example, in 1984, Reagan won across all demographic groups, except African Americans.  He didn't will all in 1980.

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3. Trump's victory was carried out in major part by peeling off rust belt states that the Democratic nominee was a terrible fit for and due to her brain trust's infinite wisdom, almost completely neglected. In addition to this, these states have been bleeding electoral votes and House seats for years now and are set to continue into the future. This is literally the opposite of an enduring coalition.

Ah, Wisconsin, yes.  Pennsylvania?  Hillary almost moved here.   

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4. In all likelihood Trump is going to have a rough 4 years. He isn't even president yet and influence peddling, stock market tricks and crony capitalism is hanging over his transition like a dark cloud. This has great potential to be the most corrupt administration since Nixon, or perhaps further back. Of course various Trump supporters would dispute this, and I'm not really going to argue it simply because I feel like Trump himself and his transition's comings and goings speak for themselves.

When/if the Trump administration's unsavory activities spill into the limelight and his supporters get increasingly annoyed that he isn't fixing their very real problems, support for him will waver if a proper opposition is formed.

Way to early.

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5. Trump is not going to help Republicans expand their minority outreach. He did better, but doing as good as some pre-Obama candidates is not an achievement. Republicans need to do a lot better to remain viable in a future where the minority share of the electorate continues to surge every 4 years. Any idea of a Republican 'realignment' has to include major inroads with minority voters. That did not happen.

Again, it may not involve any "minority" inroads.

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6. People don't like Trump. They don't trust him and they don't even think he has the temperament, yet they voted for him anyway because his opponent was worse in their eyes. She was the personification of the corrupt establishment and wealthy elite, and there is a good argument in that Trump would have lost to someone like Biden, Warren and so on. This isn't a game-changer. This is a very awful person who got a very lucky break.

Again, we don't know what the future will hold. 


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Plus, I'd also like to state that I think true realignments that occur in just one election are exceedingly rare and often made possible because of existing trends. Realignments in general take place over time and by the time they reach critical mass, usually result in some blowout elections and periods of sustained party dominance. Pretty much nothing suggests any sort of continued Republican dominance. The question now is when they are swept away, not if.

The one thing we didn't have this time was a blowout.  I see realignments taking place over 6 year period (1978-84; 1930-36).  We did have a precursor event in 2014, in the midterms.  We also have a shift in some states.  2018 may be the key.  If we were to see the Republicans hold or increase their numbers in the House and dramatically gain seats in the Senate, we might see a realignment.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Two Guesses on: December 27, 2016, 01:05:02 am

I think that 2016 is certainly the beginning of a realignment ... towards the Democrats.

EDIT: Let me elaborate a bit. The Lincoln Industrial realignment had the North and industrial labor and business behind it, and they were growing. The New Dealers had the working class behind it, which was hugely behind FDR. Reagan had the growing suburban majority. What's the Trump realigning group?

1.  I'm talking about a realignment, but not necessarily a Republican one.  Looking at the original page, it would have been a Democratic one, long term.

2.  Trump seems to have populists, the white working class, and the old social conservatives.  There was not one single group in the famous "New Deal Coalition."

1. Are you of the opinion we're moving towards a Democratic realignment in the coming decade or undecided? Can't really tell from your posts.

2. Interestingly, the groups you list in the Trump coalition are all shrinking. No religion is the fastest growing religious group; white working class folks are shrinking (by educational status), and the populists...well. Any long term GOP populist groups would need Latinos within the GOP coalition. That's true, the New Deal coalition united urban immigrant whites (including the old Polish & Eastern European contingents), African Americans, and the South.

Actually, I am looking at signs to see if one is occurring.  I thought that, if they had been a Republican victory in 2008, we might have seen one 2012.

I am not certain that they are shirking, and least as a percentage of actual voters. 
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Two Guesses on: December 26, 2016, 03:38:47 pm

I think that 2016 is certainly the beginning of a realignment ... towards the Democrats.

EDIT: Let me elaborate a bit. The Lincoln Industrial realignment had the North and industrial labor and business behind it, and they were growing. The New Dealers had the working class behind it, which was hugely behind FDR. Reagan had the growing suburban majority. What's the Trump realigning group?

1.  I'm talking about a realignment, but not necessarily a Republican one.  Looking at the original page, it would have been a Democratic one, long term.

2.  Trump seems to have populists, the white working class, and the old social conservatives.  There was not one single group in the famous "New Deal Coalition."
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Two Guesses on: December 26, 2016, 01:39:08 pm
On the second point, there have been several presidents and major party nominees that have not held elective office. Taylor, Scott, McClellan, Hancock, Grant, and Eisenhower were generals; Parker and Hughes were judges.  Cass, Taft, and Hoover had been in the Cabinet.

Only Wendel Wilkie (R) and Donald Trump had never held elective office, was not a general, a judge, or held a cabinet post. 
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Two Guesses on: December 26, 2016, 12:47:55 pm
A recent article on the possibility of a realignment:  http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/2016/12/donald_trumps_win_was_unusual.html#incart_river_home

There are several indicators, but not an overwhelming number.

1.  The 2014 election was huge, especially in the House.  That can be an indicator, but there are numerous false examples.

2.  In terms of candidate selection, Trump is a rarity in never having held a political office.

3.  In terms of how the election was conducted, Trump's use of Twitter and social media in general would qualify. 

The next thing to look at will be the midterms.  If there is any gain in the House, that would be a clear indication of a realignment.  If the Democrats collapse in the Senate elections, that would be a firm indication.  A Republican gain of 1-2 seats, or a loss, would be a weak indication.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Trump pull off this map if he makes ALL promises in 2020? on: November 12, 2016, 11:43:19 pm
I'd flip Virginia


This, but CT is a possibility. 
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: H. A. Goodman: Bernie to run again in 2020 on: November 12, 2016, 11:39:13 pm
I know this is crass but will he even be around by then?

This is a major concern of mine. In four years Bernie will be 79 (which is the US life expectancy). We need someone who represents a new generation and the new Democratic Party, not just one.

But if he does get the nomination, he'd better pick a good VP. It will be important.

This.

For some reason, both parties nominated olds.  I frankly questioned how likely it was that either candidate to survive this terms (and I liked Pence more than Kaine).

When my father was my age, he was roughly the same age as the incumbent President.  In this election, both candidates were old enough to be my parents (though Hillary would have been a teenage mother). 
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