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726  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush 47 / Kerry 45 / Nader 2 (LVs) Says CBS on: October 18, 2004, 06:04:04 pm
Vorlon, did you notice the differences between the CBS and ABC job approval numbers?  ABC has it 53% while CBS has it at 43%.  Ten points is quite a lot.  Also, Kerry just can get past the middle forties.
727  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Matthew Dowd says Bush up by 4 nationally on: October 18, 2004, 04:01:48 pm
Whether Matt Dowd is right, I don't know.  I did find it interesting to see both Tad Devine and Matt Dowd on CNN today.  Prior to the first debate, Dowd was showing confidence while Devine was very frustrated and unhappy. 

As the debates progressed, Devine seemed happier while Dowd took a softer tone.  Today, their body language suggested the roles were reversing again.  Dowd was more confident and Devine seemed more frustrated than he had been.

It leads me to believe that Dowd is closer to right.  I'm no body language expert though.
728  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Tracking polls on: October 18, 2004, 02:18:57 pm
Of the four or five tracking polls out there, which do you think is the best or at least the closest to that word?


I'm not going to include Battleground since we don't see the numbers until the end of the week.
729  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rasmussen: We're tied again (10-18) on: October 18, 2004, 11:03:37 am
Has anyone broken down the daily samples of Rasmussen's poll over the last week?
730  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / TIPP Numbers on: October 18, 2004, 11:00:52 am
Well, I'm confused now.  Rasmussen has it tied at 47-47, but TIPP has it 49-45 for Bush.  We all expected the Zogby result.  Weekends are tricky times for polling, but it's two to one for camp Kerry.

The move in the Rasmussen poll caught me off guard because both actually moved up yesterday.  It's easy to say that Kerry had one great day, but that line gets old even for me.  Kerry hasn't been ahead since late August in that poll and my guess is he'll get there tomorrow.

I hope I'm wrong.
731  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New "Battleground" - Bush +3/+4 on: October 17, 2004, 10:24:03 pm
The interesting thing about the Battleground numbers come from the internals.  On the last day polling was conducted, each of the underlying questions were back to levels Bush had when he enjoyed an eight point lead in the poll.  Thursday must have been a dynamite day for Bush.  Maybe these were the numbers Charlie Cook was refering to on "Hardboiled" Friday.  I wish they would release these numbers daily now that there are 16 days to go.
732  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: Pat Buchanan to endorse Bush tomorrow on: October 17, 2004, 10:16:12 pm
I'll tell you the one reason why he's endorsing Bush.  It's Hillary Clinton.  His big fear and mine is that Kerry may appoint Hillary Clinton Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court.  I would say, "God help us", but she might decide God can't be said in public.
733  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New "Battleground" - Bush +3/+4 on: October 17, 2004, 09:15:23 pm
This poll seems to show what we saw in the ABC and WAPO polls. Kerry entered the week with some momentum, but it quickly swung back to Bush. If you look at the trend lines for each topic, they all moved strongly in Bush favor on the last day of polling. That seems to fit what we have seen this weekend, but we won't know what Battleground found until next week. Crap!
734  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Battleground numbers out on: October 17, 2004, 09:09:04 pm
Battleground released it's new numbers tonight and they have Bush ahead by three and by four on the unaided ballot.  Interestingly, Bush trailed Kerry by a point in the middle of the week at 48-47, but quickly turned it around to a 49-46 lead.  The poll ended on Thursday so if there has been movement to Bush we won't know until next when they release new numbers.  At the end of the week, Bush's job approval had risen to 53 which is the highest it has been in the poll.
735  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kuwaiti News Agency says Abu Musaab ‏Zarqawi captured on: October 17, 2004, 09:04:02 pm
I would like to believe it, but I saw someone else on another site said that the U.S. military denied the story in a Rueters press release.  Sorry.
736  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Battleground Poll on: October 17, 2004, 05:07:36 pm
Are we going to get their results today?  Normally, they release their results at 5:00 PM.  Maybe we'll have to wait until tomorrow.
737  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kerry Surges to 3% lead in first Post Debate Zogby Survey... on: October 17, 2004, 09:39:20 am
I fully expect to see Bush trailing in the Zogby poll tomorrow.  His poll has moved all over the place in the last two weeks.  The nasty side of me believes this was all a setup to say that Kerry is surging because of the debates.
738  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Time Bush 48 Kerry 46 Nader 3 (LV 10/14-10/15 Internals are confusing ) on: October 16, 2004, 01:53:10 pm
That's what I'm talking about.  Battleground can shed some light on all of these fliskering bulbs.  That's unless I don't like the numbers!!!
739  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / National poll and Electoral votes on: October 16, 2004, 01:51:46 pm
Now that we're in the homestrech, I thought I would ask a question about how national vote percentages relate to electoral votes. Does anyone know if there is a relationship between the two? In other words, does a gap of four percetage points, say 50-46, equate to a certain number of electoral votes? I know it's a state game, but the national numbers do provide at least a general sense of the national mood.
740  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Newsweek: Bush +2 among RV's on: October 16, 2004, 10:36:36 am
I think the most interesting line had to do with the gender breakdown. Bush leads among women 49-43 yet trails among men. Based on the past, it's very hard to believe that Bush is behind among men. I just can't believe that.
741  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Bush Kerry gap on 10/17/2004 on: October 16, 2004, 09:36:21 am
I'm surprised by the Rasmussen numbers.  It looks like Bush is starting to slip.  Weekends are always volitile, but Kerry looks to be gaining.
742  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Rasmussen daily samples on: October 15, 2004, 09:16:18 pm
I was just curious if anyone's going to post the daily Rasmussen samples.  I saw last weeks samples posted on Saturday, but haven't seen any since.  Is this just a once a week post?  Thanks.
743  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Rasmussen in 2002? on: October 15, 2004, 04:01:00 pm
Vorlon, did Rasmussen poll senate, house, and govenor races in 2002?  If he did, do you know how his results compared to the actual results?  I thought someone mentioned that he was better in 2002 than his bad performance in 2000.
744  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush +4 says Zogby on: October 15, 2004, 10:39:36 am
As soon as I saw the numbers, I laughed.  I wish they were true, but let's get serious.  Unless a couple million people were turned off by the Mary Cheney comment, this won't last.

I've been following Rasmussen's poll since early January, and I think it has done remarkably well.   It has been very consistent, and it's moves have coincided pretty well with the general sense of the public.  Remember, that's just my opinion.
745  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rasmussen out with Ohio on: October 14, 2004, 04:48:10 pm
Didn't know all that.  Thanks!
746  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Rasmussen out with Ohio on: October 14, 2004, 04:13:43 pm
Rasmussen released ne Ohio numbers.  He has Bush at 49 and Kerry at 47.  What happened here.  The numbers Pollwatch99 posted from the premium section didn't show this.  Does this a difference come from leaners?
747  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / New Washington Post numbers on: October 14, 2004, 04:05:50 pm
The new numbers are 48-48.  Registered voters are 47-47.  I'm not sure what that means about yesterday's results.  With a debate, it's tough to say.  Any guesses.
748  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TIPP: Bush +3 and +4 on: October 14, 2004, 02:43:53 pm
Well, I was just about to ask Vorlon what he thought of the TIPP poll.  I followed the 2000 election closely, but not like this year.  I find all of these tracking polls interesting, but painful to follow.  The ups and downs are too much.

Vorlon, what's your impression of Battleground?  They seem to have done well in 1992 and 1996, but missed the DUI story in the last days of 2000.  What do you know about the techniques and tendencies?
749  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rasmussen State BOT's: 10/13 on: October 13, 2004, 06:17:41 pm
Thanks for posting those numbers.  As a Bush fan, I'm concerned about the Florida number.  Bush's is leaking a little oil.  By the way, do you have the daily Rasmussen national numbers?  Thanks!
750  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tracking vs. Standard on: October 13, 2004, 05:18:26 pm
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