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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2 on: Today at 01:48:08 pm
More on Iger:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/bob-iger-president-disneys-political-cat-mouse-game-1049423

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Those who know and work with Iger in Hollywood say he is seriously considering a presidential bid, which would be perfectly timed with his plans to step down as Disney CEO in 2019. One fellow media titan tells THR that Iger would be a great candidate if he decides to run but stops short of saying he is encouraging him to do so. Iger told THR in June 2016 that "a lot of people" have urged him to run for office, though that was a political lifetime ago.
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At a Vanity Fair conference Oct. 3, Iger looked visibly uncomfortable when writer Nick Bilton polled the audience on whether the superstar CEO should run. After a divided response, Iger guaranteed that his wife, Willow Bay, dean of the USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism, was not on the side cheering for the idea. It was a canny way of confirming that the topic has at least been broached within the Iger household while withholding any details of what actually has been discussed. To be clear, no reporter has been able to get Iger to say whether he wants to be president, including The Times' Jim Rutenberg, who cornered Iger at a cocktail party after the panel but couldn't get the exec to say more than he did onstage. (Iger did not respond to requests to comment.)
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And Iger of late has begun sounding more like a politician, with strong statements on issues like gun control and immigration. On Sept. 5, he released a statement calling Trump's plan to end the DACA immigration program a "cruel and misguided decision." At press time, he's the only CEO of a publicly traded media company to denounce Harvey Weinstein.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ed Kilgore to Dems: Please don't nominate someone older than Trump on: Today at 08:30:13 am
The youngest potential candidates; Zuckerberg, Booker, Castro, are all god-awful.

Garcetti and Murphy are younger than Booker, as are the House crew (Gabbard, Moulton, Ryan).  In any case, I think the point here wasn't that you should go as young as possible, just that you should think carefully about picking someone who's way at the other end of the age spectrum.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ed Kilgore to Dems: Please don't nominate someone older than Trump on: Today at 08:19:58 am
No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie.

Name recognition doesn't matter in the general election, since the very process of winning the nomination gives you ~100% name recognition among voters.  I mean, heck, Sanders himself was not well known among regular voters outside Vermont four years ago, but his run for president itself gave him high name recognition, and if he'd been the nominee, he would have gone into the general election with ~100% name recognition.  Same for anyone who wins the presidential nomination of one of the two major parties.  No one goes into the voting booth in November not knowing who the Democratic nominee for president is.


I'm talking about the primary. If you're a progressive with low name recognition and the DNC doesn't want to help you, and the media is ignoring you, you have a problem.

If you win one of the early primary states (or possibly even if you just start polling well in one of them), then you get high name recognition.  We don't yet know who's going to catch on and end up with high name ID by the time we get to primary voting because the campaign hasn't started yet.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ed Kilgore to Dems: Please don't nominate someone older than Trump on: Today at 07:48:54 am
No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie.

Name recognition doesn't matter in the general election, since the very process of winning the nomination gives you ~100% name recognition among voters.  I mean, heck, Sanders himself was not well known among regular voters outside Vermont four years ago, but his run for president itself gave him high name recognition, and if he'd been the nominee, he would have gone into the general election with ~100% name recognition.  Same for anyone who wins the presidential nomination of one of the two major parties.  No one goes into the voting booth in November not knowing who the Democratic nominee for president is.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ed Kilgore to Dems: Please don't nominate someone older than Trump on: Today at 12:40:32 am
Either way, if their age is truly an issue then people will simply decline to vote for them. Over dramatic op-eds will not be a deterrent if the people truly want them.

He's suggesting that it might end up sinking them in the general election even if it doesn't sink them in the primary.  (I'm not saying he's right.  But that's the case he's making.)

"If their age is truly an issue then people will simply decline to vote for them."  Well yes, but if you, as a primary voter, think that something might end up being enough of an issue in the general election that other voters will simply "decline to vote for" the candidate in question, then that could be a legit reason not to support them in the primary, no?
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Ed Kilgore to Dems: Please don't nominate someone older than Trump on: October 22, 2017, 11:20:09 pm
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/democrats-shouldnt-run-anyone-in-20-whos-older-than-trump.html

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Biden 2020 or Sanders 2020 is a really bad idea, for reasons that go beyond the anomaly that either would make the oldest man ever elected president the youth candidate in his reelection bid. There are certainly octogenarians who are physically fit, sharp as a tack, and as competent at work as any whippersnapper. But it’s no secret that when people, particularly men, get to that age, the risk of mortality rises significantly (a 75-year-old man has a 22 percent chance of dying within six years), and along with it the possibility of cognitive deterioration (an estimated 15 percent of people between the ages of 80 and 84 suffer from some form of dementia). If voters fear any of that happening, it could (particularly with some encouragement from the kind of intensely hostile conservative media that Sanders and Biden were spared in 2016) affect their electability in ways that are not easy to anticipate in scope and power. And even more obviously, if a 77- or 79-year-old candidate suffers from any real or perceived impairment, the issue could take over the campaign to an extent that makes Hillary Clinton’s email problem look minor.

Setting some “cap” on the age of presidential candidates is inherently an arbitrary exercise. But in terms of 2020, the logical rule would be that Democrats should not consider as nominees anyone older than Trump himself, who will turn 74 during the general-election campaign. Democrats should let him be the one to parry questions and concerns about age and health.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2 on: October 22, 2017, 11:03:42 pm
Mark Cuban was on Harvey Levin's Fox show tonight and said he would rather run as a Republican if he was forced to choose between the two parties.

Yeah, here is more info:

https://www.mediaite.com/uncategorized/mark-cuban-on-possibly-entering-2020-presidential-race-ill-probably-run-as-a-republican/

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He prefaced the question of his possible presidential run by saying that it’s “a big decision” that he had not made yet. Later adding that on a scale from 1-to-10 the likelihood of his run is at a “four.”

“Considering, yes. Made a decision? Far from it,” said Cuban.

When asked about his party affilation, the Dallas Mavericks’ owner described himself as “fiercely independent.” But Levin managed to force Cuban off his non-partisan fence and admit that he would most likely run as a Republican.

“[I’ll] Probably [run as a] Republican… Because I think there’s a place for somebody who’s socially a centrist but I’m very fiscally conservative,” said Cuban.
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As for his family’s thoughts on his potential run, Cuban said, “My kids love it, my wife hates it.”
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Institute of Funny Partial Thread Titles You've Seen on Atlas on: October 22, 2017, 06:54:41 pm
Today at 06:52:52 pm
in Re: Sherrod Brown says h...
by Holmes

I thought the title was going to turn out to be "Sherrod Brown says hi", like maybe he had just registered on Atlas to say hello to all of us.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chance that at least one woman will be on the Democratic ticket? on: October 22, 2017, 05:14:37 pm
Out of the plausible male presidential nominees, which one is the *least* likely to pick a woman as his running mate?

My gut says Sanders.  Because of Sanders's age, he might put more of a premium on picking a running mate who is simpatico with him on governing vision, since the prospects of someone that old having to step down part way through his term is very real.  And there are only so many feasible choices in that regard.

For every one of the other plausible male Dem. presidential nominees, I think the probability of them picking a woman as veep is very high.  Even for Sanders it's high, just not quite as high.


What male and plausible nominee is more ideologically compatible with him than the female Warren?  Merkley, maybe?

I don't know that he'd want to pick someone else who's over 70 years old, so I'm not sure Warren would be a given.  He might pick Merkley or Brown instead.  Whereas if Biden is the presidential nominee, then I think there's a >90% chance he'd pick a female running mate.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2 on: October 22, 2017, 04:10:32 pm
Sherrod Brown is asked about running as veep rather than president:

http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1710/22/sotu.01.html

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BASH: Final question, Senator Elizabeth Warren did a fundraiser for you in Cleveland recently. Is there any chance we might see an Elizabeth Warren/Sherrod Brown ticket in 2020?

BROWN: There's no chance of that, but thank you for asking.

In other news, Cory Booker wades into the Maryland gubernatorial race:

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/10/booker_takes_aim_at_christies_bff_the_auditor.html

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U.S. Sen. Cory Booker has waded into the Maryland governor's race, endorsing a Democratic challenger to incumbent Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, who won his seat with the help of Gov. Chris Christie and then endorsed him for president.

Booker announced his endorsement of Ben Jealous, former president of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and one of several Democrats seeking the nomination to take on Hogan next year.

"I'm grateful to receive Senator Booker's support as we continue building a movement to get Maryland back to doing big things again," Jealous said. "Senator Booker is a great friend and a fierce advocate for working families."
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chance that at least one woman will be on the Democratic ticket? on: October 22, 2017, 02:34:17 pm
Out of the plausible male presidential nominees, which one is the *least* likely to pick a woman as his running mate?

My gut says Sanders.  Because of Sanders's age, he might put more of a premium on picking a running mate who is simpatico with him on governing vision, since the prospects of someone that old having to step down part way through his term is very real.  And there are only so many feasible choices in that regard.

For every one of the other plausible male Dem. presidential nominees, I think the probability of them picking a woman as veep is very high.  Even for Sanders it's high, just not quite as high.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How old were you when your parents got married? on: October 22, 2017, 12:25:43 pm
-1

I was conceived just a few weeks after they got married.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GCS Poll of 2020 Presidential Election with Sanders running as an Independent on: October 22, 2017, 09:35:37 am
GCS samples usually have a huge shortage of female respondents, so unless it's weighted, it's probably not very accurate. If it's unweighted, you're basically just seeing a poll of white men.

The OP says it's weighted to match the demographics of US adults.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2 on: October 21, 2017, 11:57:30 pm
Garcetti's in Las Vegas for the DNC meeting, and is (of course) asked about running for president:

https://www.scpr.org/news/2017/10/21/76904/la-mayor-garcetti-takes-his-gig-national/

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"I have a job I love," Garcetti says as he makes the rounds at the Democratic National Committee's annual meeting in Nevada on Saturday. But the 46-year-old mayor adds that he wants Democrats to have "a wide open field" in 2020, and he argues that the party needs "new energy" and "a generational moment" at all levels if it hopes to counter President Donald Trump.

He was also asked about health reform, and said that he's for single payer.  I don't remember if he's said that before.  There are too many candidates to keep track of.  Tongue
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GCS Poll of 2020 Presidential Election with Sanders running as an Independent on: October 21, 2017, 10:52:00 pm
Donald Trump (R): 42% (+10)

Bernie Sanders (I): 32%

Kamala Harris (D): 26%


What would the electoral map look like with those numbers?
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Age When Your Parents Got Married on: October 21, 2017, 10:48:33 pm
I was -1 years old when my parents got married.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2004 without 9/11 on: October 21, 2017, 09:25:00 pm
If there's no 9/11 and no Iraq War, then it's unclear that Kerry would win the nomination.


http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/10/oneill.bush/

Well, it's speculative as to whether there would be an Iraq War without 9/11.  But even if there were one, a 9/11-less Iraq War might not have led to the nomination of Kerry.  Maybe the war in that timeline is less popular, and leads to the nomination of someone more dovish than Kerry.  Dean's collapse in support just before Iowa may well have precipitated in part from the timing of the capture of Saddam Hussein.  If that had been different, who knows.  No way to know if the same field of candidates would have run if Bush was less popular, for that matter.  Maybe Gore would have run if he thought he had a stronger chance of winning this time.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2004 without 9/11 on: October 21, 2017, 06:34:59 pm
If there's no 9/11 and no Iraq War, then it's unclear that Kerry would win the nomination.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2 on: October 21, 2017, 04:12:33 pm
Harris's campaign committee ramped up its spending on the online media firm Revolution Messaging (whose previous clients include the 2016 Sanders presidential campaign) in the third quarter even though she doesn't face reelection until 2022:

http://freebeacon.com/politics/kamala-harris-doubles-campaign-cash-to-media-firm-that-boosted-bernies-profile/

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Sen. Kamala Harris (D., Calif.) more than doubled her spending in the third quarter on an online media firm that played a major part in boosting the national profile of Sen. Bernie Sanders (D., Vt.) during his run for the Democratic presidential primary, Federal Election Commission filings show.

Harris, who is regularly floated as a Democratic candidate for president in 2020, paid Revolution Messaging LLC, a Washington, D.C.,-based online media firm, $255,000 from her campaign committee, Kamala Harris for Senate, between July 1 and September 30, according to its October quarterly report.

The campaign spent a majority of this money—$234,737—on web advertisements, the filings show. The remaining $21,000 went toward campaign consulting. Harris's campaign reported spending $508,270.03 the last three months, meaning that the $255,737 that went to Revolution Messaging accounted for more than half of its expenditures.

Again, she does not face reelection until 2022, yet her campaign spent half a million dollars in the third quarter of 2017 alone.  Lol.
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of flip flops on: October 21, 2017, 03:10:57 pm
I don't necessarily mind flip flops per se.  But they can certainly be problematic in some circumstances.  E.g., John Kerry's flip flop on the $87 billion funding for Iraq and Afghanistan turned out to be a problem for him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esUTn6L0UDU


what

Kerry's flip flopping was a major problem for him in the 2004 presidential election, and it's not my fault that most of the posters here were barely even old enough to be alive for that election, and thus don't mention it in a thread about flip flopping.  But I'm here to set you all straight about flip flops.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2 on: October 21, 2017, 01:42:10 pm
The author of this piece was covering Tulsi Gabbard's trip to Iowa this week, and claims she told him that she's not running for president:

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/opinion/blogs/at-liberty-by-adam-sullivan/tulsi-gabbards-substance-welcome-20171020

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Gabbard told me plainly she is not running for president when we spoke this weekend.

But without an exact quote to offer any context, I'm not going to put much stock in it.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Democrats do you think will actually run for President? on: October 21, 2017, 01:16:30 pm
Would Cory Booker run considering his re-election in 2020?

I missed this part of your post earlier, but I think yes, Booker is probably going to run despite the fact that his Senate seat is up in 2020.  The filing deadline for his Senate seat is April 2020, so he has the option to "pull a Rubio", and run in the presidential primaries at least through Super Tuesday, and then if it looks like he's not going to win the presidential nomination, he can drop out and switch to the Senate race.

Maybe that won't fly with New Jersey Dems, and some other candidate will take his place in the Senate race, but I don't know that he cares enough about the Senate seat for that to stop him from running for president.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Democrats do you think will actually run for President? on: October 21, 2017, 01:13:11 pm
What does deter people from running is when they're no longer convinced that they can win.  (Though some of them are not self aware enough to ever realize this.  O'Malley will probably think he can win no matter what.) 


Or maybe you just don't have anything else to do.  I mean, I can't believe that O'Malley is that delusional about his chances, but obviously he's not going to come out and say that, and what else does the guy have to do with his time?

That's true.  I think Julian Castro and Terry McAuliffe might be in that category as well.  (Not that they're as likely to run as O'Malley, but that if they do run, it'll be in part because there's nothing else for them to do.)  Castro's already out of office, and not really making any moves on any other office except possibly president, and McAuliffe will be out of office next year and in the same situation.  Neither of them is old enough to retire yet, so unless there's some other office that they want to run for (and those options may be limited) why not run for president?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Tulsi in Iowa, impresses many. on: October 21, 2017, 12:00:32 pm
That being said, her chances at the nomination are pretty minuscule, no matter how many people were "impressed" by her in IA.  She simply does not have enough appeal among the demographic groups required to win the nomination.  There is a narrow band of support in the party that does like her a heck of a lot, but I have yet to see any evidence that this faction has any wider influence in the party.

I don't think she's going to win, but I do think a Ron Paul-esque ~4th place or so with a cult following is very possible.  I do think there's a minority of the primary electorate who would be drawn to a candidate on the basis of them being maximally "anti-establishment", and if Sanders isn't running, then I'm not sure Warren would be seen as sufficiently "anti-establishment" for some of these folks.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Democrats do you think will actually run for President? on: October 21, 2017, 11:54:42 am
Considering their relationship do both Harris and Warren run, and who bows out for whom?

Would Cory Booker run considering his re-election in 2020?

Will Kirsten Gillibrand run against her Governor Andrew Cuomo?

John McCain and Fred Thompson were also friends, but that didn't stop them from running against each other in 2008.  And everyone figured that Rubio wouldn't run against mentor Jeb Bush, yet he did.

I don't think these kinds of relationships tend to end up being as important as they're often made out to be.  If you want to be president, and you think you have a shot at winning, then you run.  These folks also tend to have enormous egos, so they're usually convinced that they'd be much better candidates than their "friends", and so would assume that their friend should defer to them rather than the other way around.

What does deter people from running is when they're no longer convinced that they can win.  (Though some of them are not self aware enough to ever realize this.  O'Malley will probably think he can win no matter what.)  And sometimes your "friend" running might hurt your own chances of winning the nomination, to the point where you figure you might be better off waiting until next time.

E.g., maybe Harris thinks she can win only if she has unified support from the black community, and Booker or someone else also being in the race thus convinces her not to run, because it splits her base too much.  Or maybe Gillibrand needs big $ donors from New York state, and if Cuomo runs, then she figures she's not going to be able to get enough of them to have a chance.  I'm not saying that's going to happen, as I definitely think we might get both Cuomo and Gillibrand in the race at the same time (ditto with Booker and Harris), but those are the sorts of things that will factor into their thinking.
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