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November 24, 2017, 07:46:15 am
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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101  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: latest Betfair odds on: November 15, 2017, 06:50:29 pm
Of course, I could be doing this all wrong, but I think I understand (1/last price matched).

Edit: I think something is wrong, as Elizabeth Warren has 15 price matched for Next President to Kamala Harris's 17.5, but for Democratic Nomenee they are tied at 6.4. I guess I am reading wrong or something. Sad

No, that is the right idea.  It is 1/last price.  But the nomination and general election don't always match very well because it's still very early so volume is low.  I think winning individual volume is a bit better than the nomination markets.

I tend to use Oddschecker's price list for Betfair Exchange:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner

Numbers tend to be slightly different from what's on Betfair's website, but the layout of Betfair's website kind of annoys me.  Here's where we're at right now on winning individual:

Trump 28.4
Pence 8.4
Warren 7.5
Harris 7.0
Biden 5.7
Sanders 4.8
The Rock 4.0
Zuckerberg 3.7
M. Obama 3.3
Booker 3.1
Winfrey 2.5
P. Ryan 2.3
102  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls on: November 15, 2017, 05:32:10 pm
Has the latest accusation been mentioned in this thread yet?

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/11/new_roy_moore_accuser_he_didnt.html
103  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: In the wake of the Roy Moore scandal... on: November 15, 2017, 05:13:29 pm
To be fair, I would not be surprised if DW Perry attempted to pursue teen girls. It's just that he probably failed.

He's not interested in teen girls.  Only adult Senators.  He's already said that he'd be up for an affair with Kirsten Gillibrand or Mary Landrieu:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=75679.msg1554721#msg1554721

Landrieu is out of the Senate now, but if he wins this special election for US Senate, he'll be able to strike up an office romance with Gillibrand!
104  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would you buy or sell on PredictIt’s odds of these candidates running? on: November 15, 2017, 04:52:21 pm
Honestly, at those prices, I'd probably either push or sell on everyone.  Sell on all the Republicans, Indies, and non-politicians like Zuckerberg.  Sell on Biden, Sanders, and probably Cuomo.  All of the remaining Dems then are close enough to having reasonable prices that it's not worth betting on them.  E.g., I think in my personal odds a few weeks ago, I gave Klobuchar a 45% chance of running.  But 43% vs. 45% is a tiny enough difference to not worry about.
105  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Would you buy or sell on PredictIt’s odds of these candidates running? on: November 15, 2017, 03:41:53 pm
PredictIt’s current probabilities for these potential candidates running for president in 2020 (that is, formally filing the paperwork for a presidential campaign, not just doing pseudo-campaign events in early primary states years in advance, as many of them are already doing):

Cory Booker 75%
Andrew Cuomo 73%
Kamala Harris 70%
Kirsten Gillibrand 65%
John Kasich 62%
Elizabeth Warren 60%
Joe Biden 49%
Bernie Sanders 46%
Amy Klobuchar 43%
Mike Pence 39%
Mark Cuban 34%
Ted Cruz 28%
The Rock 23%
Mark Zuckerberg 21%
Tim Kaine 18%
Paul Ryan 14%
Joe Scarborough 10%

Would you buy or sell each of these at the listed price?
106  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico / Morning Consult national poll: Biden 46% Trump 35% on: November 15, 2017, 03:27:20 pm
Trump wins 3% of Clinton ’16 voters

Who in that ^%&#$& are these people?

We supposedly have one right on this forum:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=277314.msg5910126#msg5910126

Presumably, there are some #NeverTrump Republicans / Republican leaners who voted for Clinton because they thought Trump would start World War III or something, and now see him governing enough like a generic Republican that they're up for voting for him next time.  Or maybe some of them just had some particular reason for backing Clinton (like "first woman president") that wouldn't apply if Trump's opponent is Biden or someone else.
107  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Richard Cordray 2020? on: November 15, 2017, 02:32:34 pm
If Cordray wins the governorship, then Sherrod Brown will probably be the frontrunner to be the 2020 VP nominee, simply because a Dem. winning the governorship of Ohio means that Brown is free to give up his Senate seat without handing it over to the GOP.

But I don't think Cordray himself will be a short lister for VP, let alone the presidency.
108  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Among which demographic did Gary Johnson perform well in? on: November 15, 2017, 02:20:03 pm
I'm still annoyed by the fact that there was no "Who did you vote for in the *last* presidential election?" question in the exit poll this time.  They usually include that question, but left it out in 2016.  I'd love to know, of the 2016 3rd party voters...

what % voted Obama in 2012?
what % voted Romney in 2012?
what % voted 3rd party in 2012?
what % voted didn't vote in 2012?
109  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls on: November 15, 2017, 01:54:44 pm
Apparently McConnell wants Sessions to run a write-in campaign.

Good luck with that.

Why is that so unlikely? Just because Sessions would have to take a risk by stepping down as AG first?

Yeah, while Sessions has not had the best of tenures as AG so far, I see nothing that says he would consider stepping down for a write-in campaign where he would split the vote and be a definite underdog. No rumors of him considering quitting on Cloakroom or the likes, either.

What if Trump straight up fires him on the pretense that Sessions is the only candidate who can win a write in campaign in Alabama?  Tongue
110  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico / Morning Consult national poll: Biden 46% Trump 35% on: November 15, 2017, 11:16:26 am
Crosstabs:

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015f-b7ca-d250-a7ff-bfef15c60002

men: Trump +3
women: Biden +24
age 18-29: Biden +31
age 30-44: Biden +19
age 45-54: Biden +8
age 55-64: Biden +2
age 65+: Trump +2
under $50k income: Biden +14
$50-100k income: Biden +9
over $100k income: Biden +6
white: Biden +1
Hispanic: Biden +29
black: Biden +61
urban: Biden +24
suburban: Biden +14
rural: Trump +5

Northeast: Biden +19
West: Biden +15
Midwest: Biden +9
South: Biden +6

Biden wins 11% of Trump ’16 voters and 12% of Romney ’12 voters.
Trump wins 3% of Clinton ’16 voters and 12% of Obama ’12 voters.

That said, here’s how this sample claims to have voted in the past two elections:

2016:
Trump 38%
Clinton 36%
someone else 9%

2012:
Obama 45%
Romney 27%
someone else 5%
didn’t vote 23%
111  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Politico / Morning Consult national poll: Biden 46% Trump 35% on: November 15, 2017, 08:12:00 am
Morning Consult national poll, conducted Nov. 9-11:

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/biden-trump-2020-elections-244900

Biden 46%
Trump 35%
112  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls on: November 15, 2017, 12:44:25 am
https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT/status/930613618328076288

Quote
"Moore's gonna win this because God has chosen to punish the GOP with horrible soul-destroying "victories," not defeats."
113  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2 on: November 15, 2017, 12:37:40 am
Re: Cuomo's Hollywood trip:

http://deadline.com/2017/11/andrew-cuomo-hollywood-fundraiser-bob-iger-jeff-shell-les-moonves-2020-1202208117/

Quote
“He’s got the name recognition, the solid executive experience, and stronger than ever relationships out here,” one top check-writing Hollywood supporter told Deadline of the ambitious Cuomo. “Now, he is starting to feel and look like a real contender. Folks are sizing him up in a new light as someone they can back who can pack a punch against Trump,” the insider added.

In town this evening from a breakfast fundraiser with the Silicon Valley crowd in San Francisco, that assessment will see Cuomo pocketing hundreds of thousands of dollars ostensibly for his 2018 state campaign at Shell and spouse Laura’s Beverly Hills pad. Along with the Universal executive and his wife, the “intimate evening” is being chaired by a cascade of longtime and well heeled Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton supporters including Iger, CBS’ Les Moonves, Jeffery Katzenberg and wife Marilyn, Warner Bros’ Kevin Tsujihara, Fox’s Stacey Snider and Paramount’s Jim Gianopulos. Progressive Hollywood’s favorite political fixer Andy Spahn is a host for the event which sports a price tag of $10,000-$50,000 a couple.
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In the just more than a year since Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump, Hollywood has mostly seen lower-ranking politicians and a few Sen. Tim Kaine drive-bys when it comes to the fundraising circuit. Cuomo is the first of the potential Democratic POTUS candidates to come knocking since Clinton’s defeat last November.
114  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Assuming Trump is the GOP nominee...will 2nd place in the primaries endorse him? on: November 14, 2017, 04:18:43 pm
Did Randall Terry and John Wolfe endorse Obama? I don't think so...
My *guess* is that at least one person will be challenging Trump in the primaries who will have enough of an organization to get ballot access in more than half the states.  I think even a McMullin could pull that off.  That's my guess, but I wouldn't call it a sure thing....

I think there will be several challengers. Kasich, Cruz, Martinez, McMullin and maybe even Romney.

I don't know.  Barring extraordinary circumstances, there are only going to be so many voters willing to vote for a non-Trump candidate in the GOP primaries, and once one challenger announces their candidacy, it might deter others from jumping in and diluting the anti-Trump vote.  We'll see.  Or multiple candidates might begin the race, but only one would get enough traction to merit staying in the race once the voting starts.

Most likely scenario for multiple challengers would be if you had one representing the "RINOs" (probably Kasich) and another representing either the "true conservatives" or "libertarians" (possibly Amash?).  But even coming from different wings of the party, they would still probably dilute the anti-Trump vote if they were both in the race at once.
115  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Assuming Trump is the GOP nominee...will 2nd place in the primaries endorse him? on: November 14, 2017, 03:44:33 pm
Did Randall Terry and John Wolfe endorse Obama? I don't think so...

OK, edited my previous post to say that past primary challengers who actually made it on the ballot in most states have tended to endorse the winner.  I don't think any of the primary challengers to Bush '04 or Obama '12 made it onto the ballot in more than a handful of states.

My *guess* is that at least one person will be challenging Trump in the primaries who will have enough of an organization to get ballot access in more than half the states.  I think even a McMullin could pull that off.  That's my guess, but I wouldn't call it a sure thing....
116  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls on: November 14, 2017, 03:34:07 pm
I honestly do not see why Mitch wouldn't expel Moore if he won. He is a massive stain on the GOP brand and the kind of Senator who is prone to grandstanding and general disruption. He's just not reliable and is a drag on their party. More importantly though, booting him out of the Senate wouldn't be painful. Alabama is not going to rebel in any electorally significant way, if at all.

I don't know. You don't think those Moore supporters in Alabama would be pissed about the Senate telling them you know what, no thanks on your candidate? I think they would be. I'm not sure what they could do, but I guess they could make life difficult for the "establishment."

Well I do think a lot of diehard Moore supporters would be pissed, but Alabama is so polarized and deeply Republican that it can absorb a lot of temporary partisan rebellion. However for as mad as they might get, I just don't think most of them would try to take that out on the party by voting for a Democrat, because, well, Democrats are EVIL BABY KILLING SATAN WORSHIPPERS!

Maybe not but they could primary Republican incumbents or rebel with write-in campaigns like they did with Martha Roby last year and knocked her under 50% of the vote. That could have sent a democrat to Washington if enough people did it.

I highly doubt that's going to happen.  And furthermore, other than Shelby, the Republican Senators making the decision aren't from Alabama, so they're not going to be thinking about longshot scenarios like that.  A Roy Blunt or a Tim Scott or whoever cares about Republican voters in their own states, not Republican voters in Alabama.  No one in Missouri is going to abandon Blunt if he votes to expel Moore.  A year from now, his voters won't even remember who Moore is.  Thus, he is free to vote to expel Moore and avoid a situation where Moore is sticking around in the Senate, embarrassing his party on a daily basis.
117  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls on: November 14, 2017, 02:04:12 pm
Roy Moore is apparently not popular with voters nationally.

Luckily for him, only the opinions of Alabama voters matter.

For getting elected in the first place, true.  But for getting expelled from the Senate by his fellow Senators, polls like this will be a green light to kick him out.
118  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Assuming Trump is the GOP nominee...will 2nd place in the primaries endorse him? on: November 14, 2017, 02:00:43 pm
If someone else actually ends up winning delegates, they'd have to REALLY hate Trump...

Past primary challengers to incumbent presidents who actually made it on the ballot in most states (Reagan '76, Kennedy '80, Buchanan '92) all ended up endorsing the president they were running against in the general election.

That said, Trump is a weird case.  ~1/5th of the GOP caucus in the Senate didn't endorse him in the GE last time, and he won anyway.

Also, if, say, Kasich is running against Trump in 2020, the question will be posed both ways: Kasich will be asked if he'll endorse Trump in the GE if Trump is nominated, and Trump will be asked the same of Kasich if Kasich is nominated.  I doubt Trump agrees to endorse Kasich in the unlikely event that Kasich is nominated, so Kasich might just reciprocate and say he wouldn't endorse Trump either.....

How the RNC chair responds to candidates refusing to pledge support for the party regardless of who win the nomination, I don't know.  Aren't there even some state primaries where such a pledge is required for ballot access?
119  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Assuming Trump is the GOP nominee...will 2nd place in the primaries endorse him? on: November 14, 2017, 01:43:04 pm
?
120  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PPP: 14 more polls of competitive House districts on: November 14, 2017, 01:24:20 pm
It'd be hard to deny that a wave is building; New Jersey and Virginia were only a taste of what's to come next year. But, even more important (at least in the long-term) is whether Democratic gains will be limited almost entirely to urban and suburban Congressional Districts or if it'll extend to rural ones as well.

Doesn't really seem like it if you go by the Virginia results. Obviously that is just one region though, and rural areas in other states could drift back a little to Democrats, but at least right now it seems like the party has a lot of work to do on that front.

Another significant issue is whether suburban areas becoming increasingly Democratic are primarily due to Whites with a college degree or more minorities living in the suburbs. Didn't Whites with a college degree constitute a higher share of the vote in Virginia's state elections than in 2016? Does anyone know if they voted more Democratic than in 2016?

If you go by the exit polls, Northam won Virginia by a larger margin than Clinton did last year largely because whites with a college degree supported him more than they did Clinton, and because they constituted a larger share of the vote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/local/virginia-politics/governor-exit-polls
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/virginia/president

%age of the Virginia electorate who are white / no college degree in 2016: 29%
%age of the Virginia electorate who are white / no college degree in 2017: 26%

%age of the Virginia electorate who are white / college degree in 2016: 38%
%age of the Virginia electorate who are white / college degree in 2017: 41%

2016 margin among whites without a college degree: Trump +47
2017 margin among whites without a college degree: Gillespie +46

2016 margin among whites with a college degree: Trump +4
2017 margin among whites with a college degree: Northam +3
121  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Foreign policy differences among 2020 Dems on: November 14, 2017, 10:46:00 am
The House passed a resolution declaring that US military assistance to Saudi Arabia in its fight against Yemen is not authorized under the 2001 AUMF:

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/13/house-yemen-civil-war-authorization-244868
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2017/roll623.xml

Seth Moulton and Tim Ryan voted for it, while Gabbard voted against it.  Delaney wasn't present for the vote.
122  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls on: November 14, 2017, 10:34:49 am
What does "dropping out of the race" even mean?  It's too late to get his name off the ballot, or to have it replaced by another name, right?  So even if Moore was playing ball on this, what would he do?  Promise to resign on day 1, in the event that he's actually elected, and endorse the write in candidacy of another Republican?
123  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden’s book release and book tour thread on: November 14, 2017, 10:29:54 am
Full video of Biden's appearance on Colbert:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ls31TkGSQGA
124  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Roy Moore accused of sexual abuse on: November 14, 2017, 01:27:45 am

Until/unless Roy Moore is forced out of the race, I can't don a blue avatar with any dignity.


The Republican Party has hit a moral low. Let's just hope it's not a bottomless pit.



Post Trump Moore being elected wouldn't be the least bit surprising to me. Not sure what the rules are for being expelled from the Senate (namely what kind of majority is necessary) so I don't know about that. 

A 2/3 majority must vote to expel.

Okay, that's not going to happen.

It's quite likely to happen, IMHO.  The Senate GOP just cuts Moore loose, and he gets replaced by another interim Senator who is also a Republican (and probably more likely to cooperate with them on policy than Moore).  So it's not like they have to sacrifice a Senate seat here.


I thought Powell v. McCormack eastablished that the Senate could not reject duly-elected Senators?

Everything I've read online says that the Senate can expel its members, and the Senate's own website mentions the expulsion proceedings against Bob Packwood, which took place after Powell vs. McCormack:

https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Expulsion_Censure.htm

Or maybe it's a distinction between "reject" and "expel"?
125  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2 on: November 13, 2017, 11:28:52 pm
Hickenlooper still deferring on any decisions about his political future:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/359816-hickenlooper-sees-victory-for-centrists-and-model-for-dems-in-virginia

Quote
He’s not going to announce a decision about his next career move anytime soon. But he’s not discounting anything, either, whether that’s challenging Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) or running for president in 2020.

“The moment I start running for a higher office or even talking about it — Am I going to run for Senate? Would I run for president? What am I going to do? — if we do a good enough job creating this model of how a state can operate, then I can go run a foundation, who knows what I can do,” Hickenlooper said.

“I can have lots of choices.”
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