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March 19, 2019, 12:47:53 am
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kamala basically has to soil Bidenís reputation to get the nomination on: March 11, 2019, 03:15:04 pm
I want someone who can win back PA, MI, and WI, and Biden is that person.  A Biden-Harris ticket is fine for me--and she can take over in 2024.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Joe Biden a racist? on: March 10, 2019, 05:52:45 pm
Biden was wrong with his Clarence Thomas vote, but its on record to be used against him. No one remembers other things; as a result, he apologized to Hill.

Biden voted against Thomas's confirmation.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A new Iowa DMR/CNN/Selzer poll for the Democratic Caucus will be out tomorrow on: March 09, 2019, 04:24:55 am
Prediction: Biden will be higher than expected and Atlas will be very butthurt about it.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will AA turnout be up or down with Bernie as the nominee? on: March 08, 2019, 10:12:03 pm
There will be a drop and will make it hard for the Democrats to retake the trifecta of MI, WI, and PA. 
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Joe Biden a racist? on: March 08, 2019, 09:41:47 pm
He is no more racist (bigoted) than anyone on Atlas Forum.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Joe Biden 2020 announcement megathread on: March 08, 2019, 12:50:12 am
I want to know what is Biden going to say during a debate that's going make him collapse. Not every Democratic voter is Cynthia Nixon.

Yeah, but every Democrat on Atlas seems to be.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Hick files to run on: March 04, 2019, 01:07:47 pm
Why...just why? He has absolutely no chance. Does Hickenlooper not understand that this is not the '90s anymore?

Also, there's way too many people running on the Democratic side. I know a lot of people think that they can beat Trump but many need to understand that not everyone especially moderates (especially on economic policy) can win the Democratic nomination anymore.


This is why I think we are looking to simulate the 1972 election (not in vote totals but the rejection of the leftward turn the Democrats took).  A midterm win in 1970, far too many candidates that thought they could beat Nixon, nomination of someone who appealed to young voters/the base but not to the national mainstream, and a crushing defeat for the Democrats that November. 
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Question for those supporting Sherrod Brown on: March 03, 2019, 11:27:17 pm
Brown is my #1 choice.  Would love to see him run because he comes across as authentic and in sync with the average American--both white and non-white. 

I want someone that will have appeal to independents--because that's the way Trump can be defeated next year. In the group of current Democratic prospects, that leaves Brown, Biden, or one of the potential gubernatorial candidates.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Political future of former Tallahasse, FL Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) on: March 03, 2019, 11:18:59 pm
Rematch against DeSantis in 2022.

He'd lose again--and by a bigger margin than in 2018.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Joe Biden doing so well in all these early polls against other Democrats? on: March 03, 2019, 11:09:15 pm
Reminder that joe Lieberman led in the polls at this point in 2003.

Joe Biden is not Joe Lieberman.  This is not just a name recognition game going into March 2019.  Biden carries a significant reservoir of good will by most Democrats and many independents--which will be critical in defeating Trump next year.   He continues to do well in the early polls, as the response to the currently declared candidates is quite underwhelming.   


11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Is the impact of the 1980 Debate overrated on: March 02, 2019, 11:47:11 pm
The debate probably added a couple of points to the final margin, but the perceived negativity of the October Surprise (that is, no solution to the hostage crisis in Iran) was probably more contributory to the final margin.  This turned a reasonably comfortable victory into a rout for Reagan.  The events of that last week meant the loss of several states (including New York, Massachusetts, and many in the South)--which Carter lost by slim margins. 

Carter was in serious trouble from the start of the general election campaign--with states like Texas and Florida (which he had won in 1976) pretty much out of his reach by early October.  And there were very few (if any) states that he could pick up by that point.

12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden/Cortez-Masto? on: March 02, 2019, 02:26:31 pm
Makes sense.  Would cover a lot of bases.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your reaction to these OH/IA results? on: February 20, 2019, 10:24:36 am
With these numbers, I think Trump will hold at least one of the three (Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/ Michigan)--enough to re-elect.   It also means that Trump may also pick up New Hampshire and Minnesota.   
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: This could be a real map Bernie/Trump on: February 20, 2019, 10:17:02 am
A nice piece of humor to start the day...
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Tulsi Gabbard drop out? on: February 20, 2019, 10:11:28 am
She needs to drop out--and so should others (and there are many) who have no chance at the nomination.  Next year is going to be very tough against Trump.  No need to waste valuable resources and time on taking the eyes away from the prize. 
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Civitas/Harper Polling (R): Trump ahead on: February 19, 2019, 11:07:55 pm
Add GA to that mix as well.  The four states have rapidly growing populations--and everyone talks about the ethnic populations moving in.  But they are effectively matched in a less public way by a significant conservative white influx.   And just about the first thing they will do when they arrive in their new home is register to vote.
No. Republicans in Georgia went +8 to +5 to +1 in the top of the ticket races in the past three cycles. The Republican Party's strangehold on this state is nearly over. Trump probably won't even clear 50 percent here.


The Democrats will be competitive in Georgia and may start to win some races statewide in the future.  But it will follow the pattern of Florida.  The movement into the Villages and the Panhandle and Southwest FL matches the ethnic influx into the Orlando and Miami/Ft. Lauderdale areas.  Likewise, the moves into metro Atlanta are matched by the conservative white inflow into north Georgia counties (either from out of state or "white flight" out of Atlanta).    And again, voter registration within the diverse population lags the white influx for several election cycles.

It will be tight for next year, but Trump will pull it out in Georgia.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Civitas/Harper Polling (R): Trump ahead on: February 19, 2019, 09:42:13 pm
There is some improvement in Trump's poll numbers since the budget shutdown ended. And its reaffirming FL, NC, and AZ leaning towards him. But not the rust belt.

Add GA to that mix as well.  The four states have rapidly growing populations--and everyone talks about the ethnic populations moving in.  But they are effectively matched in a less public way by a significant conservative white influx.   And just about the first thing they will do when they arrive in their new home is register to vote.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Georgia GE 2020: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Who wins? on: February 17, 2019, 05:28:57 pm
It will be reasonably close, but Trump will win it.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Not Repubilcans:do you support Biden for POTUS? on: February 14, 2019, 08:15:09 pm
Absolutely in the general. 
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sherrod Brown: Medicare for all not 'practical' on: February 02, 2019, 10:05:29 am
Medicare for All--if it's a public option (i.e. adding to available private plans), it makes the availability of good quality insurance (95% of physicians accept Medicare+supplemental as complete payment and just about every good quality hospital does as well) to those who are struggling to find affordable insurance.  This is the 50+ population, in which Obamacare premiums have gone through the roof for horrible coverage.  I know this--no tax credits, paying $1800/month for a lousy high deductible plan to cover myself and my family. 

Believe it or not, Medicare is better than all of the Obamacare plans out there.  If this became an option, it would create competition to force private payers to provide better coverage--or get out altogether.

If M4A is a wipeout of everything else, we are talking about a complete restructuring of the system (and a likely nightmare).
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2019 VA: Northam doesn't resign on: February 02, 2019, 08:53:22 am
If the consensus there is for Northam to resign among the state Democrats in Virginia (notably the black politicians), I will accept it.  National Democrats need to stay out of it.  The sanctimony and self-righteousness of the Elizabeth Warrens and Kamala Harrises are already so irritating at every level.

But national Dems will be hammered for it if he doesnít resign

True--they are damned if they do and damned if they don't.  They created this trap for themselves.  Which is why Al Franken is gone--but Steve King and Brett Kavanaugh (as repulsive as they are) are still around.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2019 VA: Northam doesn't resign on: February 02, 2019, 07:55:26 am
If the consensus there is for Northam to resign among the state Democrats in Virginia (notably the black politicians), I will accept it.  National Democrats need to stay out of it.  The sanctimony and self-righteousness of the Elizabeth Warrens and Kamala Harrises are already so irritating at every level.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Texas Republicans fear Trump could lose the state in 2020 on: January 31, 2019, 03:53:30 pm
Not going to happen.  Beto couldn't win it even he somehow became the nominee.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who would win Ohio? on: January 31, 2019, 03:51:46 pm
Brown would win--would be close.  It would add to the 279 electoral votes he wins (Hillary's total plus PA, WI, and MI).
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden vs Trump map on: January 21, 2019, 09:04:15 pm
The OP map is pretty good.  And I think IA really comes into play with the ongoing tariff issue.
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