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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Democrats target AZ and GA in 2020? on: November 13, 2016, 08:22:27 pm
Should Democrats target AZ and GA in 2020?

Both state trended Democratic despite Hillary being a terrible candidate.

In fact, AZ and GA were closer than IA and OH.
I think you're ignoring that Trump was also a poor candidate, especially for these two states that have large metro areas with a large suburban white population that will likely swing back to the GOP in 2020. Arizona is more promising for Democrats than Georgia.
A "poor candidate" doesn't crack the electoral walls in WI, MI, and PA.  That's not the resume of a "poor candidate".

I agree that AZ is more promising than GA, but GA is increasing its black population at a rapid rate, and it's a more middle class black population that votes more often.  It's white population is also changing, and becoming (slowly) more liberal, as white working professionals move into metro Atlanta. 

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/11/01/white-voter-registration-sinks-below-57-percent-in-georgia/
http://onlineathens.com/local-news-uga-mobile/2016-06-21/georgia-growth-super-concentrated-atlanta-half-states-counties-are

- Whites are down over 90K in Georgia since 2012, the only group in decline.
- Half of the state's counties are losing population.

https://www.georgiapol.com/2016/11/09/cobb-county-trumpophobic/
https://www.georgiapol.com/2016/11/10/analysis-election-gwinnett/

Henry County was expected to flip to Clinton, but no mainstream experts expected Gwinnett to, never mind Cobb. The white vote is a little flexible it seems in Georgia, at least in Atlanta.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread** on: November 08, 2016, 07:08:25 pm
GA exit looks surprisingly close!

Men 57-38 Trump
Women 54-41 Clinton

But 55% of the electorate is women, so...


That's what the polls show and the actual turnout is.
http://sos.ga.gov/index.php/Elections/voter_turn_out_by_demographics

Because Black females greatly outvote Black men.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 03:08:55 pm
Florida is a done deal at this point. Trump should win IA, though.

How do we know? Are the GOP counties reporting in real time? Are the current numbers skewed by Democrats reporting fast?
4  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / GA-20/20 Insights (D): Trump +3 on: November 08, 2016, 01:29:16 pm
http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2016/11/08/a-final-final-georgia-poll-donald-trump-johnny-isakson-lead/

Chris Huttman of 20/20 Insight, a Democratic-oriented firm, just tossed us the results a small poll he conducted from Nov. 1 to 7 so it just wrapped up last night. He worked with 541 respondents, so the margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.

Republican Donald Trump, 48 percent;
Democrat Hillary Clinton, 45 percent;
Libertarian Gary Johnson, 3 percent;
4 percent still undecided.

I have no idea how to read the crosstabs.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 08, 2016, 01:24:08 pm
Hope for Clinton in North Carolina. 21% of Republicans voted on election day, vs 17% of Democrats and 19% unaffiliated. Not a huge difference...

https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/796052564466958336

Img
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 08:29:39 am
http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/GetVoterTurnout.php?county=broward&election=213#
Broward

Img


http://www.livevoterturnout.com/Hills/ElectionDayCheckinsPerHourTable.html
Hillsborough

I found via https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher
7  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis: Trump leads AK, AZ, GA, OH, SC // Clinton leads WI, PA, CO, OR, NY on: November 07, 2016, 09:30:05 pm
Adjusting for house effect, Clinton wins AK and AZ. Wow.

https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/795680507610664960

John Hagner from Clarity Campaign Labs, who just released the Trump +16 poll in Missouri, says don't be surprised at Alaska Surprise
8  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Gravis: Trump leads AK, AZ, GA, OH, SC // Clinton leads WI, PA, CO, OR, NY on: November 07, 2016, 09:19:34 pm
http://www.gravispolls.com/2016/11/multi-state-polls.html
https://www.scribd.com/document/330352697/Multi-state-Results-November-7-2016-v3#from_embed

Alaska
Clinton 41
Trump 44

Arizona
Clinton 43
Trump 45

Colorado
Clinton 44
Trump 43

Georgia
Clinton 44
Trump 48

Ohio
Clinton 42
Trump 48

Oregon
Clinton 44
Trump 40

Pennsylvania
Clinton 46
Trump 40

South Carolina
Clinton 43
Trump 48

Wisconsin
Clinton 47
Trump 44

New York
Clinton 55
Trump 36

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 07, 2016, 08:25:40 pm
Ds really need to figure out their appeal to white voters they clearly haven't hit the bottom with them. Dems seem stuck at 30-33% in NC which results in narrow losses for them, 20-25% in GA etc.

The latest polls seem to have her improving...
2008 Georgia exit polls had it Obama 23%, McCain 76% (R+53%)
Landmark's final 2014 poll had Nunn at 22%, Perdue at 74%, a margin of 52%.

Landmark's final 2016 poll has Clinton at 26%, Trump at 68%, a margin of 42%.
Marist/NBC's recent poll has Clinton at 27% Trump at 65%, a 38% margin.
Quinnipiac's recent poll has her 23-65, 42%.

At least from Landmark/Marist, she's doing better with whites a little, and Johnson is taking Trump's support. Whether that will hold up on election day though...
10  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA-Landmark (final): Trump +3 on: November 07, 2016, 08:09:07 pm
https://www.georgiapol.com/2016/11/07/trump-isakson-lead-georgia-ahead-tuesdays-elections/#more-7582

I found crosstabs at GeorgiaPol

White
Trump 68
Clinton 26

Black
Trump 9
Clinton 88

Republican
Trump 85
Clinton 10

Democrat
Trump 8
Clinton 89
11  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Gravis/Breitbart: Clinton leads FL +1, NM +8, VA +5, NC +1, MI +5 on: November 07, 2016, 07:06:58 pm
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/07/exclusive-breitbart-gravis-polls-swing-state-roundup/

Virginia
Clinton 47
Trump 42

North Carolina
Clinton 46
Trump 45

Michigan
Clinton 46
Trump 41

New Mexico
Clinton 45
Trump 37

Florida
Clinton 46
Trump 45
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 07, 2016, 06:51:41 pm
http://www.l2political.com/blog/2016/11/07/early-voting-battleground-states-oh-az-nc-fl-wi-co-ga-nv-new-registrants-nationwide-mi/

I took their non partisan #s, did the math of the lean, and added it to the D/R #.

OH
Democrats: 50.3%, Republicans 49.5%

AZ
Democrats: 44%, Republicans 47%

NC
Democrats:51%  Republicans: 48%

FL
Democrats: 48% Republicans 52% (missing weekend data)

GA my state
Republican 43.5% // Democrat 32.7% // 23.6% Non-partisan (Likely leaning among non-partisans: 65.3% D // 34.6% R)
Gender 57.6% F // 42.3% M

Net GA Democrats 48% Republicans 52%

Clark County, NV Early Voting Returned Ballots as of 11/4/16
Republican 33.0% // Democrat 45.9% // 16.0% Non-partisan (Likely leaning among non-partisans: 39.2% D // 60.7% R)

Net Clark County Democrats 57% Republicans 43%
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 07, 2016, 06:37:54 pm
Forsyth is also shocking on the opposite side but understandable given demographic change.

I live in Forsyth County, and there is clearly less enthusiasm for Trump here than for past Republican nominees.  Certainly there are some zealous Trump supporters, but many of the more affluent and highly educated Republicans are put off by Trump.  I know some normally certain R voters who'll leave the top spot blank, a couple voting for McMullin, and at least one voting for Clinton.  In addition, the county has seen demographic change as you mentioned; there are more AA and Latino residents here than ever before.

Not that I expect Forsyth to be close (that would be the biggest election shock ever), but it won't be the blowout of the last two elections.  Romney won 81-18 and McCain 78-20.  I really doubt that Trump will break 70%; perhaps something like 68-27.

68-27 in Forsyth seems like a landslide for Clinton statewide! Is there any evidence that the surge in white voters is just cannibalization, or is North GA really growing their vote to vote Trump, and offset his losses among the educated?

I'm still encouraged by the close race among the live caller polls Smiley
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 07, 2016, 06:15:40 pm
Georgia

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/a-breakdown-of-georgias-record-number-of-early-vot/ns5HH/

Share of vote
Blacks are down from 34% in 2012 to 28.4% this year.
Whites are up from 59% in 2012 to 61%
Latinos are up 0.8%
Asians are up 0.7%

Counties where the share of early voting by whites dropped the most:
Forsyth (Obama 18 Romney 81) 12%
Whitfield (O27 R72) 5%
Rockdale (O58 R41) 4%
Gwinnett (O45 R55) 3%

Counties where the share of early voting by blacks dropped the most:
The top ones are all rural, but
DeKalb County where rolls are now 53 percent black fell 11%
---
No idea what's going on in Dekalb... Obama won 78% to 21%, so maybe excited white hippies for her? Forsyth is also shocking on the opposite side but understandable given demographic change.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/794566786960199680
Michael has also noted, more Blacks have voted in Georgia, it's just that a surge in white early voters are pushing their share down. If a lot of that is cannibalization, it may not be so bad for her.
15  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / FL-Opinion Savvy: Clinton +2 on: November 07, 2016, 11:50:05 am
http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/07/poll-florida-race-narrows-to-clinton-2/
Florida 11/5-11/6   

Clinton - 48% (49)
Trump - 46% (45)
Johnson - 3%
Stein - 1%

Clinton still leads the early vote by roughly 8%

Clinton still wins the <45 demographic by significant margins (15%-20%)

Trump has consolidated some of the 45-64 demographic, in which he leads by nearly 10%

Trump appears to have improved his standing among independents, with whom he trails Clinton by less than five points
16  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Monmouth Final National Poll: Clinton +6/+6 on: November 07, 2016, 11:14:00 am
Republican
Clinton 9
Trump 84

Independent
Clinton 42
Trump 44

Democrat
Clinton 92
Trump 5
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton supporters, what state are you most worried about? on: November 07, 2016, 11:12:32 am
I chose Florida, because it's tight but looks still winnable, unlike North Carolina.
18  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Monmouth Final National Poll: Clinton +6 on: November 07, 2016, 11:05:38 am
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_110716/

White
Clinton 37
Trump 54

White women
Clinton 44
Trump 49

White men
Clinton 30
Trump 59

19  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / GA-Landmark (final): Trump +3 on: November 07, 2016, 08:21:29 am
http://landmarkcommunications.net/landmarkrosetta-stone-releases-final-sunday-poll-of-georgia-voters-for-president-senate/

https://www.georgiapol.com/2016/11/07/trump-isakson-lead-georgia-ahead-tuesdays-elections/#more-7582

Trump 49 (48)
Clinton 46 (46)
Johnson 3 (4)
20  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie on: November 07, 2016, 08:19:32 am
I thought it would be tight. The difference between this poll and others was the white margin, and now it's in line with other polls.
21  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3 on: November 06, 2016, 11:05:03 pm
http://targetsmart.com/news-item/tswmp-ohio-survey-early-voters/

The survey shows Clinton captured the support of 10 percent of self-described Republicans who voted early, while 81 percent voted for Trump. In contrast, Trump received the support of 4 percent of self-described Democrats who participated early, with 90 percent voting for Clinton.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread on: November 06, 2016, 10:45:18 pm
OHIO

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage."

Per TargetSmart, Clinton up 7, 48-41 in early voting, Clinton up 23 with women (55-32)
https://twitter.com/_targetsmart/status/795471106471772161
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 08:54:51 pm
As of today's early voting figures. Florida crosses the 70% threshold and NC comes very close, too.

'16 EV as a % of '12 Total:


Img


Code:
NV 75.87%
FL 72.61%
AZ 69.18%
NC 68.96%
TN 68.16%
GA 61.00%
CO 60.45%
OR 59.35%
MT 56.35%
TX 56.28%
WA 54.21%
-----------
UT 47.21%
AR 46.89%
NM 45.93%
IA 37.68%
MD 36.16%
ND 34.82%
DC 34.50%
KS 32.43%
CA 32.22%
ME 30.51%
WV 27.43%
ID 26.85%
LA 26.31%
WI 25.32%
IN 24.31%
IL 24.04%
MA 22.14%
SC 21.71%
SD 21.61%
NE 21.58%
HI 21.03%
-----------
OH 18.90%
MI 18.10%
AK 17.41%
WY 16.33%
VT 15.13%
OK 14.77%
MN 14.22%
VA 12.52%
DE 5.41%
NJ 4.73%
KY 4.08%
RI 3.78%
NH 3.64%
MO 2.01%
MS 1.08%
AL 0.12%
-----------
CT 0.00%
NY 0.00%
PA 0.00%


Cool! There's been lots of hand wringing about Black turnout, and though the share has been down, the turnout hasn't been (except North Carolina due to the GOP).

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/794566786960199680

Georgia race comparison to 2012 same day
Afr-Am +28,935 (+5.2%)
White +292,321 (+29.6%)

With whites up bigly in the Georgia early vote, wonder if they'll be weaker on election day, or if this is new voters for Trump.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 04:03:56 pm
https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/795358638730858496

For everyone nervous about the collapse in Black turnout in North Carolina

2012: It is only 5% Black, but Obama carried it over Romney 69% to 29%, with 3,670 votes cast in the precinct that year.

This year through Friday, November 4 there have already been 4,354 votes cast in early and mail-in voting, a 73.1% turnout of registered voters. Analyzing it by party it's even more stark. Here's the turnout by party:

Democratic 79.7%
Republican 65.0%

Unaffiliated 69.6%*
Libertarian 59.3%
25  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Internal poll megathread on: November 06, 2016, 10:12:43 am
https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan
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