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1  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Fremont Voting Booth : November 2018 Special Election on: December 03, 2018, 12:32:47 am
1. Lumine
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which is more likely to flip? Arizona and Georgia or Iowa and Ohio on: November 29, 2018, 01:40:33 am
Arizona and Georgia, no question.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which departing senator will you miss most? on: November 17, 2018, 03:28:18 pm
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Did Republicans fail in the Senate this cycle? on: November 14, 2018, 01:08:05 pm
Yes.  They should have been able to lock-down AZ and been more competitive in OH and PA.
WV and MT, too.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Virginia 8-3 Democratic Map on: November 13, 2018, 01:00:01 am
Img

Img

VA-01: D+1: Charlottesville to Williamsburg. Drifting more leftward
VA-02: R+3, but I have no doubt Virginia Beach and Chesapeake will continue to trend leftward. Maybe winnable in a GOP wave, but unlikely.
VA-03: D+ Safe D black seat.
VA-04: D+ Black plurality, another VRA seat, also Safe D
VA-05: R+13, Danville/Lynchburg/west Chesterfield County.
VA-06: R+13. Shenandoah Valley seat
VA-07: D+2. Rural + Swampburbs
VA-08: D+21. The swampiest of the Swampburbs
VA-09: R+20. Rural hick vote sink.
VA-10: D+1. Some rural counties, plus Loudoun, and some of PW/Fairfax
VA-11: D+9. The fourth swampburb seat

Thoughts? Tried to make it as clean as possible. To shore up some of the shakier seats, diluting VA-8 is needed, but since they're on the edge of the state, it would make it ugly (not that that matters). Also, taking some of the more Republican parts of VA-02 away is tough, since they're tucked into the corner of the state.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate elections by congressional district on: November 12, 2018, 09:25:18 pm
I saw somewhere a map of the Virginia Senate results by congressional district by now I can't relocate it.  Does anyone have it and can post it again?

Anyone know how to find Senate election results by CD?

Here is one:

Img


In all honestly not a bad gerrymander to still get 4 seats when you lose 57 41.
Especially considering how VA-09 is basically a natural Republican vote sink.
Anyway, the future of VA-01 and VA-05 look concerning, as a Republican.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: US Senate elections, 2024 on: November 12, 2018, 08:18:16 pm
I think Troy Balderson makes Ohio start at least Lean R. The state is trending more and more Republican, and he already has the name recognition, he's become a darling on the right for holding the seat in the special election, and has shown he can win tough races. He'd be the top recruit for Republicans, I believe.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is Martha McSally a sore loser? on: November 12, 2018, 08:16:48 pm
Not at all. She’s entitled to wait until all votes are counted, even if the math for her is very unfavorable.

This demand that people concede immediately is stupid.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Republican Targets 2020 on: November 11, 2018, 01:17:03 pm
Can they legally cut Bishop's seat?
They can replace it with another minority vote sink seat in the Atlanta-area, I think. It would keep the same number of VRA seats, and also help shore up GA-07.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV-3: Ojeda Suceeded on: November 09, 2018, 02:40:49 pm
Has anyone noticed that some Democrat named Talley Sergent in WV-2 actually did better than Ojeda?
Alex Mooney is a carpetbagger, and a terrible candidate. He always underperforms. I bet when WV drops down to 2 seats next decade, he'll be the "odd man out" and lose renomination. Geographically, his district will obviously be the one split.

Didn't he only win by 2 points in 2014 of all years even when Rahall got BTFO.
Yes he did.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV-3: Ojeda Suceeded on: November 09, 2018, 02:38:12 pm
Has anyone noticed that some Democrat named Talley Sergent in WV-2 actually did better than Ojeda?
Alex Mooney is a carpetbagger, and a terrible candidate. He always underperforms. I bet when WV drops down to 2 seats next decade, he'll be the "odd man out" and lose renomination. Geographically, his district will obviously be the one split.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV-3: Ojeda Suceeded on: November 09, 2018, 02:34:36 pm
Ojeda did fine, but as a non-incumbent in a very Trumpy area that's only becoming more friendly to Republicans, I don't think he has a chance.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Could you see Josh Hawley being a presidential candidate in 2024? on: November 09, 2018, 02:33:30 pm
He would have had 6 years of being in the Senate and he's a young veteran.
Hawley is not a veteran.

I see him most likely running for re-election, he's young enough to be a candidate (or at least a big GOP name) in the 2030's/40's.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Favorite new U.S. Senator on: November 08, 2018, 11:29:01 pm
Scott hasn’t won yet.

Anyway, even if he does, it’s Braun for me.
Ranking the ones on the list (2-5 were SUPER tough, TBH)
1. Braun
2. Cramer
3. Scott
4. Blackburn
5. Hawley

6. Romney


7. Rosen
8. Sinema


15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Vote tampering exists at 100% confidence level in MI, IN, MO, and FL Senate race on: November 08, 2018, 02:34:21 pm
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT-SEN 2018: Close race on: November 07, 2018, 05:39:15 am
On Decision Desk, 96.26% reporting.
Matt Rosendale   193,479   48.90%   
Jon Tester (inc)   190,809   48.22%

Park County (all), Yellowstone (3 precincts), Gallatin (1 precinct), Cascade (2 precincts) withstanding
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) on: November 07, 2018, 12:18:42 am
Montana is getting close, but tester is still leading
Surprised it hasn't been called for him. You can't win statewide in MT as a Republican by barely carrying Yellowstone county by a mere 63 votes. Very sad, I was a big fan of him, but c'est la vie.
18  Election Archive / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Nelson +7 on: November 05, 2018, 10:30:59 am
D+5 sample seems a little too off. Not getting my hopes up high for Scott, but I'm assuming a more or less split electorate in Florida. That said, I'd "adjust" to Nelson +2.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 4 on: November 04, 2018, 11:34:09 pm


Partisanship is a hell of a drug
Well, conservatives sure as hell ain't voting for someone who they disagree with on almost everything (and vice versa). That's what you see now that the two parties are basically on polar opposite ends.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Final: Senate Election Predictions on: November 04, 2018, 01:19:28 pm
SENATE: R +2 • Dems flip AZ • GOP flips MO, IN, ND

HOUSE: Dems pick up 15-25 seats, Tossup about who has majority

GOVS: Dems win Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, but lose Georgia.

Serious question, how do the Dems flip AZ but not NV? I want to think Heller has a real shot, but remember, NV's polling history. Democrats are ALWAYS underestimated.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Impact of Trump/Republicans' new racist ad? on: November 02, 2018, 12:13:44 am
Nobody cares
This, and it's not even racist.

Woah, where've you been? Been a while long time no see.
I still read most of what goes on. I've been back as an "active" (logging in) member for maybe 2 weeks, mostly doing PM's with MT Treasurer.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Impact of Trump/Republicans' new racist ad? on: November 02, 2018, 12:07:53 am
Nobody cares
This, and it's not even racist.
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2018 Federal Election on: October 20, 2018, 03:09:29 pm


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24  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Petition to unban Eharding on: July 18, 2018, 04:03:19 pm
Greedo needs to be unbanned, as his ban was totally unfair and wrong. It was his brother with an account from the same IP. Why would he want a sock if he had a main account that was not banned.

Eharding, no, no, no. I've disavowed my past support for him and rescind any past calls for his unbanning. On Discord a few months ago he revealed to me how racist, bigoted, and hateful he truly is, and he's told me he wants to come back to Old Atlas. No, keep him out, and watch out for a potential sock account. I support free speech and usually oppose censorship, but his is the exact type that should not be allowed.
25  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Let's talk about Beet on: July 18, 2018, 03:59:06 pm
I volunteer to be beets replacement if necessary.
Endorsed
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