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October 17, 2017, 06:55:40 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox News Alabama senate poll tied on: Today at 05:12:21 pm

That's not hard to believe, tbh.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread: Jones (D) v. Moore (R) on Dec. 12 on: Today at 05:10:45 pm
Fox News Freedom Poll





Outlier until we get confirmation.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1 on: Today at 05:07:14 pm
@IceSpear: In case you're not aware, the official excuse for Dems not being able to beat Assaulterforte in MT (I refuse to call him by his real name after his actions), is that most of the vote was cast during early voting.

I'm pretty sure most Democrats agree that it had more to do with the fact that Quist by all accounts proved to be a piss-poor candidate despite initially looking solid on paper.

Why is it that the Dems need stellar candidates to win, but the GOP can nominate and elect Trump, Greg Gianforte, Roy Moore, Roy Blunt, Sam Brownback, Pat Roberts, Thom Tillis, Rick Scott, Paul LePage, etc. etc. without repurcussions?

I think Dems need to start accepting that deplorables are unwinnable and Republicans are far more "locked in" than Democrats are. Times have changed drastically since Akin/Mourdock, both of whom were exceptions to begin with. If Democrats routinely nominated candidates as piss poor as that above list we'd be a permanent minority. Even lazy but otherwise harmless milquetoasts like Martha Coakley and Anthony Brown end up losing in the most Democratic states in the country. When Dems imported some rich guy to run in an evenly split upstate NY seat, something Republicans do on the regular with occasional success, he lost by like 57 points, lol. The double standard is real.

Roberts was in hindsight never gonna lose, Gianforte would've lost to a better candidate, Moore hasn't won yet and is being held to single-digits by a weak b-lister in most polls in friggin' Alabama.  The rest of those races would've been won by Democrats had they not taken place in a Republican wave year (or in Trump's case, had we run a remotely competent candidate).
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH: Mingo Out on: Today at 04:23:33 pm
Fresh off the heels of State Rep. Palenda's announcement she would not continue to seek the Secretary of State's office, Franklin County Auditor has announced he will not seek the State Treasurer's office. This leaves the Republicans with no contested primaries other than the Gubernatorial. (And the Senatorial, but wrong thread.)

Also, greater Toledo-area State Senator Cliff Hite has unexpectedly resigned without elaboration. I'm actually fairly saddened by this, as he was one of few Republicans in the state legislature that could be worked with on energy issues.

Told ya Tongue 

Just means FCDP needs to hurry up and recruit somebody. After O'Brien hanging on last cycle, can't take this spot for granted.

*begins foaming at the mouth in anger at the mention of O'Brien's name*
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1 on: Today at 04:22:05 pm
@IceSpear: In case you're not aware, the official excuse for Dems not being able to beat Assaulterforte in MT (I refuse to call him by his real name after his actions), is that most of the vote was cast during early voting.

I'm pretty sure most Democrats agree that it had more to do with the fact that Quist by all accounts proved to be a piss-poor candidate despite initially looking solid on paper.
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: TV series you used to love and now hate on: Today at 04:17:02 pm
The West Wing and Law & Order/Law & Order SVU.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now) on: Today at 04:16:03 pm
I will postpone judgment on this until I see the actual bill.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXvOGR027GY
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1 on: Today at 04:12:47 pm
Monmouth is an A+ pollster on 538. Great momentum for Ed.
Sweet

That reminds me, has anyone checked to see whether this guy is Krazen's sock?  I've been meaning to ask about this.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH: Mingo Out on: Today at 04:08:11 pm
Fresh off the heels of State Rep. Palenda's announcement she would not continue to seek the Secretary of State's office, Franklin County Auditor has announced he will not seek the State Treasurer's office. This leaves the Republicans with no contested primaries other than the Gubernatorial. (And the Senatorial, but wrong thread.)

Also, greater Toledo-area State Senator Cliff Hite has unexpectedly resigned without elaboration. I'm actually fairly saddened by this, as he was one of few Republicans in the state legislature that could be worked with on energy issues.

Told ya Tongue 
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Has McCain eclipsed Goldwater as THE Arizona Senator on: Today at 03:38:08 pm
For anyone who's had a memory since around 1980...yes.

For anyone else, it's still Goldwater.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment Megathread on: Today at 02:48:21 pm
Michigan House Democrats leader Rep. Tim Greimel (D - Troy) is in for MI-11



Easily our best possible recruit; this race now goes straight to toss-up (and could well end up tilt-D, depending on who the Republicans nominate).
12  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Concert of Europe: Rules and General Discussion Thread on: Today at 02:45:40 pm
I am so proud of all the glorious chaos I've unintentionally caused Smiley
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you prefer the posts of Wulfric or ProgressiveCanadian? on: Today at 02:34:48 pm
As incredibly awful as ProgressiveCanadian is, has he unironically made a petition to ban McDonalds or an Atlas "resolution" to impeach Trump?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressional Fundraising Megathread on: Today at 02:32:07 pm
Amusing:

Quote
Check this out: GOP ex-Rep. Richard Hanna gave $1,000 to Dem Anthony Brindisi, who's running against Hanna's successor, Claudia Tenney #NY22

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/920329180025380865

This is actually a big deal as Hanna had been considering a third-party bid before Brindisi got in which would've liked resulted in Tenney's re-election.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1 on: Today at 02:29:24 pm
Like any outlier, I'm gonna wait for confirmation before getting too worried.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Weird dreams you've had involving politicians on: Today at 06:54:21 am
I had a dream Phil Bredesen came out of retirement to run for President in 2020 and was leading Trump in every national poll by exactly 7%.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressional Fundraising Megathread on: October 16, 2017, 08:42:19 pm
BOLD PREDICTION: Flake will be forced to retire and Mcsally will run.

I think they're keeping her on reserve for whenever McCain dies.  Fortunately, unlike Sinema, Stanton should be strong enough to beat McSally (who may well go down this year).

If you think Sinema is "weak"(even though she isn't, she's a stronger candidate than most democrats incumbents) wait until news drops about Stanton's involvement wasting hundreds of millions of tax payer money to buy a hotels some sort of government run business. It hasn't hit the news much yet and I assume you havent heard about it but now that Stanton is running for congress the republicans will go to town for wasteful spending like this. AZ is not a place thats nice to fiscal irresponsibility. I can already see the ads telling voters about Stanton's irresponsible stunt to make a communist government owned business with our tax dollars and then eventually loosing tens of millions.

I never said Sinema was a weak candidate, so I'm not sure why that is in quotes.  However, unlike Stanton, she has some major baggage.  I actually did know about the hotel thing (I looked it up because you mention it almost literally every time someone mentions Stanton's name Tongue ).  I don't think it is anywhere near as bad as you've made it out to be, at least politically.  I don't think it'll cause Stanton any real problems during his political career although I get that you are personally really pissed about it.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Wisconsin Megathread - Walker far underwater on: October 16, 2017, 08:31:01 pm
Quote
Jason Stein‏
Verified account
@jasonmdstein

Former U.S. Herb Kohl is about to endorse @WISuptTonyEvers in the Democratic primary for governor, one of the bigger endorsements so far.

That's BIG, but it doesn't surprise me. Evers is a powerhouse in Wisconsin.

I wonder if Evers will try to convince Vinehout to run in the LG primary as sort of a unity non-Madison/Milwaukee-based ticket. I think they'd be well-balanced geographically.

That would be an interesting choice, and would absolutely neutralize Walker's talking points.
*snip* I wonder if Evers will have access to any of that sweet sweet Herb Kohl money.

I highly doubt it since Dan Kohl is running a pretty competitive congressional campaign against Grothman.  That's probably the priority for the Kohl family this cycle.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Let's take a moment to appreciate what we had on: October 16, 2017, 05:47:36 pm
I see three cardinal virtues in political leadership: kindness, caution, and conscience. The lack of any one of these creates trouble. Kindness is necessary for acting human ely, Caution keeps one out of problems that result from rashness. Conscience causes  one to make morally correct, if difficult choices.

Obama had all three. Trump has none of these. 

In fairness the only one Hillary had was caution and even that is somewhat debatable.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th) on: October 16, 2017, 05:45:30 pm

Oh, please. I know you're disappointed that I don't support Northam, but if you seriously think a random YouTube video is going the change the way I think.....

I don't particularly care who you support since you're a Minnesotan and thus cannot vote in the race.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th) on: October 16, 2017, 05:32:27 pm
Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: North Korea Mega Thread on: October 16, 2017, 05:28:20 pm
Rumors of a launch and/or above ground nuke test for possibly the 18th.

NK rejects diplomacy with the US: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkKZZ3ckbwo

I mean, let's look at the third-world dictatorships widely condemned for their WMD programs.  Gaddafi and Saddam ended their WMD programs and were overthrown due to U.S./western military action.  Iran negotiated with us, kept their end of the deal, and we broke a treaty we'd made with them less than a year ago for literally no reason.  In other words, we proved that America can no longer be trusted to honor it's treaty obligations even if the other country does everything it agreed to do.  Now let's look at Assad who not only refused to abandon his WMD program, but gassed his own people after the U.S. basically threatened him with military action if he did so.  Assad is still going strong and now has a superpower (Russia) backing him while the U.S. has simply washed its hands of the whole conflict. 

If you're a rational actor in Kim Jong-Un's position, the logical thing for you to do is to refuse to even negotiate about your WMD program and bet that you can either keep the game of chicken going until Trump loses in 2020 or simply scare Americans badly enough with your saber-rattling that war of any sort with North Korea is politically unfeasible for Trump's administration.  Honestly, I think Kim Jong-Un is far more of a rational actor than Trump.  Kelly, Mattis, etc are rational actors, but Trump clearly isn't.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congressional Fundraising Megathread on: October 16, 2017, 05:05:57 pm
I think the fact that so many Republicans are getting outraised (some like Barr, Freelinghuysen, Bishop, Grothman, etc getting absolutely crushed) is another sign that there is a real wave building and a big one.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TN-SEN: Corker retiring on: October 16, 2017, 04:56:43 pm
Bredesen isn't going to win lol

He could beat Blackburn in a wave; it'd be a very tough race, but not impossible.
So you really believe it is lean rep for now?

I mean, TN has become considerably more republican since he was first elected as Governor...

No, I didn't say that.  First, Bredesen hasn't actually declared yet Tongue  But if he does, it still starts as likely R.  I'm just saying I think Bredesen is 1) a really strong candidate, 2) Blackburn strikes me as a rather over-rated candidate who will likely prove to be something of a gaffe machine, 3) Karl Dean will give us a strong and well-funded Democrat at the top of the ticket, and 4) I think 2018 will be a pretty big Democratic wave at this point.  In other words, a lot would have to go right and it'd take both a wave and Blackburn shooting herself in the foot a few more times (she just had a pretty nasty scandal regarding her role in crippling the FDA's ability to combat the opioid epidemic; Tom Marino was involved too and it has probably sunk his DEA nomination), but Bredesen definitely has a path to victory against Blackburn.  

I'd also add that (IIRC) Blackburn is on really bad terms with the "moderate" (read: very right-wing but not batsh!t insane) wing of the TN Republican Party.  Haslam and especially Corker probably wouldn't do much to help her beyond minimal lip service to party loyalty.  I mean, there's a reason the state party establishment is recruiting Steve Fincher to run in the primary: Blackburn is a loose cannon who doesn't play well with others, so to speak.  I don't think Bredesen has a path to victory against Fincher although the Republicans might have to waste some money even then.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TN-SEN: Corker retiring on: October 16, 2017, 04:36:15 pm
Bredesen isn't going to win lol

He could beat Blackburn in a wave; it'd be a very tough race, but not impossible.
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