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October 18, 2017, 10:46:09 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread: Jones (D) v. Moore (R) on Dec. 12 on: Today at 09:30:32 pm
Good for Bill Kristol.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are the "Bernie wing" and "Clinton wing" of the Democratic Party real things? on: Today at 09:17:38 pm
No. The "divide" has been overstated by supporters of Sanders to give their personal feelings more legitimacy. The 2020 primaries will show that.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Perez removing Ellison supporters from DNC on: Today at 09:14:36 pm
About time Zogby was given the boot; Perez continues to prove himself the right man at the right time Smiley
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to widow of Sgt. La David Johnson: "He knew what he signed up for" on: Today at 04:16:31 pm
White House says Trump already sent the check by mail.

Generally it's a good policy to assume Trump is lying until proven otherwise.

I interpreted it as he sent the check today because he got caught lying.

Ah, I misunderstood.  I thought you meant they'd claimed to have already sent the check before the article.  My bad.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to widow of Sgt. La David Johnson: "He knew what he signed up for" on: Today at 04:12:18 pm
White House says Trump already sent the check by mail.

Generally it's a good policy to assume Trump is lying until proven otherwise.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Gillespie really will win this on: Today at 03:30:57 pm
Three of the past four major election cycles have been Republican waves (2012 was a moderately Democratic-leaning neutral cycle), so it's not surprising, honestly. 

I assume you meant 2016 as part of the 3 Republican waves? I have to disagree. Republicans only barely won the House PV (an inverse of 2012), actually lost seats in the House and Senate, and gains across the country were not too spectacular. Even Trump's electoral college win was at best a comfortable win, and perhaps less so when you look at his razor thin pluralities in the states that carried him to the finish line.

In my opinion, it was just a modest Republican-leaning year, but by no means a wave.

There was almost nothing left for them to win by then in the House; it was inevitable some of the lowest hanging fruit would flip back.  In the Senate they had essentially the reverse of the Democrats' map situation this year and only lost one seat.  And Donald Trump won the Presidency.  It was a small wave, but a wave all the same.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to widow of Sgt. La David Johnson: "He knew what he signed up for" on: Today at 03:13:28 pm
Worth a read:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-offered-a-grieving-military-father-25000-in-a-call-but-didnt-follow-through/2017/10/18/8d4cbc8c-b43a-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html?tid=sm_tw&utm_term=.fb024dc76779
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Gillespie really will win this on: Today at 03:08:19 pm
I love it how right-wingers (including myself) always seem to be much more confident about their side winning for some reason Smiley

Three of the past four major election cycles have been Republican waves (2012 was a moderately Democratic-leaning neutral cycle), so it's not surprising, honestly. 
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH: Mingo Out on: Today at 02:29:58 pm
Playing with data from the BOE, it looks like Clinton got ~20,000 more votes than Trump across the 3rd. The issue is down the ballot. Miller only got ~3,000 more votes than his Republican opponent in the 17th, Bishoff only got ~4,000 more votes in the 20th, and Gonzales beat her Democratic opponent by nearly ~10,000 votes in the 19th. Winnable, but again, not sure who the Democrats would run.

Gonzales is also kinda nuts though.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1 on: Today at 08:30:13 am
This is just one poll showing Gillespie in the lead (and then only within the MoE), and you all are going apesh**t over it?  Really?  Roll Eyes

If we start seeing a trend within the next few weeks, then we can all get excited (or panicked) about it.  Until then, let's all chill for a bit. 

Good to see someone else is being rational about this Tongue
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: Today at 06:33:09 am
Yeah, that's a district with lots of blue-collar workers, so Democrats were expected to have at least some difficulties here. Feeney association with Sanders was, probably, an asset here - many such workers hated Hillary, but loved Bernie...

Plus there was a left-wing independent candidate.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH: Mingo Out on: Today at 06:31:57 am
Huh. I suppose the 3rd could be competitve. Though I'd be surprised if Mingo wouldn't have to go up against Anne Gonzales in a primary. Dem's bench here seems sort of weak. Adam Miller underperformed the 17th last cycle and Brown was only just appointed to the 20th. It's a real shame we lost Bischoff.

True, Bishoff definitely would've won.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to widow of Sgt. La David Johnson: "He knew what he signed up for" on: October 17, 2017, 10:03:02 pm
As it says, it's a developing story, but my interpretation is that he was saying that the soldier, may he rest in peace, knew the risks of the job.  Saying "but when it happens it hurts anyway" is saying that such travesty looms over everyone's heads, and while many prepare for the worst, they are still hit hard.

I would like more context, however, than a third-hand account.

I am so sick of you defending this vile monster.

It is NEVER okay to say that to a widow on the day of her husband's funeral!

Again, I WOULD PREFER CONTEXT. From what I read, it looked like he was trying to console her and say that this is a job that he took and he knew the risks of doing it and that he signed up to defend the nation.  The sergeant, rest in peace, was an honorable man.  Am I wrong about what Trump was trying to say through the comment? That's very possible, but again, I would like to see full context.  If I'm wrong and he did mean this in an extremely disrespectful manner, then I will 100% admit that I am wrong.

And I do not consistently defend him.  He has been doing a f***ing horrible job and is easily one of the worst presidents this nation has had.  I want him out as badly as the next guy.  The s*** he says puts me in horrible moods.  He is a horrible, horrible, horrible president.

I think the issue is more that even in that context, this was still an incredibly cruel and insensitive thing to say.  Trump displayed a complete lack of even the most basic degree of empathy.  That said, I do think it's unfair to act like The Saint some sort of mindless Trump stooge.  He definitely gives him the benefit of the doubt too often and seems to have a real blind spot with regard to the GOP's racism, but he's also not part of Trump's unthinking personality cult.  That alone puts The Saint well above many on the forum in my book.  Maybe it's a low bar, but it's one a disturbing number of Americans can't seem to pass.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH: Mingo Out on: October 17, 2017, 09:35:37 pm
Mingo is running for State Senate, according to what I've heard.

Nice!  Democrats might actually have a good shot at picking up OH-3 in that case.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump to widow of Sgt. La David Johnson: "He knew what he signed up for" on: October 17, 2017, 09:32:05 pm

I can't imagine anyone I've ever met in my life saying this, much less any other President.
16  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Concert of Europe: Rules and General Discussion Thread on: October 17, 2017, 08:37:38 pm
I have to drop out for cognitive rest due to a mild concussion. Probable full LOA until Saturday for the whole site.

Get well soon!
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: FBI uncovered Russian bribery plot on: October 17, 2017, 08:27:53 pm
I knew this would be a troll post before I even clicked on it.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox News Alabama senate poll tied on: October 17, 2017, 05:12:21 pm

That's not hard to believe, tbh.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread: Jones (D) v. Moore (R) on Dec. 12 on: October 17, 2017, 05:10:45 pm
Fox News Freedom Poll





Outlier until we get confirmation.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1 on: October 17, 2017, 05:07:14 pm
@IceSpear: In case you're not aware, the official excuse for Dems not being able to beat Assaulterforte in MT (I refuse to call him by his real name after his actions), is that most of the vote was cast during early voting.

I'm pretty sure most Democrats agree that it had more to do with the fact that Quist by all accounts proved to be a piss-poor candidate despite initially looking solid on paper.

Why is it that the Dems need stellar candidates to win, but the GOP can nominate and elect Trump, Greg Gianforte, Roy Moore, Roy Blunt, Sam Brownback, Pat Roberts, Thom Tillis, Rick Scott, Paul LePage, etc. etc. without repurcussions?

I think Dems need to start accepting that deplorables are unwinnable and Republicans are far more "locked in" than Democrats are. Times have changed drastically since Akin/Mourdock, both of whom were exceptions to begin with. If Democrats routinely nominated candidates as piss poor as that above list we'd be a permanent minority. Even lazy but otherwise harmless milquetoasts like Martha Coakley and Anthony Brown end up losing in the most Democratic states in the country. When Dems imported some rich guy to run in an evenly split upstate NY seat, something Republicans do on the regular with occasional success, he lost by like 57 points, lol. The double standard is real.

Roberts was in hindsight never gonna lose, Gianforte would've lost to a better candidate, Moore hasn't won yet and is being held to single-digits by a weak b-lister in most polls in friggin' Alabama.  The rest of those races would've been won by Democrats had they not taken place in a Republican wave year (or in Trump's case, had we run a remotely competent candidate).
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH: Mingo Out on: October 17, 2017, 04:23:33 pm
Fresh off the heels of State Rep. Palenda's announcement she would not continue to seek the Secretary of State's office, Franklin County Auditor has announced he will not seek the State Treasurer's office. This leaves the Republicans with no contested primaries other than the Gubernatorial. (And the Senatorial, but wrong thread.)

Also, greater Toledo-area State Senator Cliff Hite has unexpectedly resigned without elaboration. I'm actually fairly saddened by this, as he was one of few Republicans in the state legislature that could be worked with on energy issues.

Told ya Tongue 

Just means FCDP needs to hurry up and recruit somebody. After O'Brien hanging on last cycle, can't take this spot for granted.

*begins foaming at the mouth in anger at the mention of O'Brien's name*
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1 on: October 17, 2017, 04:22:05 pm
@IceSpear: In case you're not aware, the official excuse for Dems not being able to beat Assaulterforte in MT (I refuse to call him by his real name after his actions), is that most of the vote was cast during early voting.

I'm pretty sure most Democrats agree that it had more to do with the fact that Quist by all accounts proved to be a piss-poor candidate despite initially looking solid on paper.
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: TV series you used to love and now hate on: October 17, 2017, 04:17:02 pm
The West Wing and Law & Order/Law & Order SVU.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now) on: October 17, 2017, 04:16:03 pm
I will postpone judgment on this until I see the actual bill.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXvOGR027GY
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1 on: October 17, 2017, 04:12:47 pm
Monmouth is an A+ pollster on 538. Great momentum for Ed.
Sweet

That reminds me, has anyone checked to see whether this guy is Krazen's sock?  I've been meaning to ask about this.
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