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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Re-elect Map? on: February 23, 2018, 12:41:54 pm
I think MN, NH and NV are all in play for Trump the next time around and perhaps provide some cushion if MI and WI go the other way.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald vs. Bernie: Who would win? on: February 23, 2018, 12:40:08 pm
The map looks like it does in 2016.  Nevada and Minnesota and Virginia could tilt right.  Bernie could win back WI and MI and probably ekes out NH
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Andrew Cuomo vs. Donald Trump on: February 23, 2018, 12:38:38 pm
Trump adds New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada and Maine.

Michigan and Virginia toss-ups

But I don't see how the Dems nominate Cuomo
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If you were told Trump was going to win on: September 13, 2017, 10:01:07 pm
My election morning prediction was Trump winning with 276-284 EVs.. i figured he'd win either MI or PA, not both, and perhaps NH as a bonus.  WI stunned me.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump's re-election inevitable? on: December 02, 2016, 01:33:56 pm
Probably adds MN, NH and NV to his column.  Outside chance at CO, ME and VA

Favored to win with somewhere between 320-345 EVs.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If a seer told you before election that Trump would get 46%... on: December 01, 2016, 01:35:49 pm
My election morning pick was Clinton by 2 point and Trump to win with 280 EV, so I would have thought Trump could win with 46
7  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12 on: November 30, 2016, 12:56:13 pm
Polls like this led to the meltdowns and sobbing at the Javits Center and elsewhere on Election Night.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When did the betting markets/projections/cw turn on Election Night? on: November 30, 2016, 12:53:31 pm
Between 7 and 8 pm Central, Florida was obviously trending Trump but the TV analyst seemed to ignore the evidence and were sticking with the narrative that the Latino surge and Broward, Miami Dade would pull Clinton through.

The numbers showed Trump ahead but Krauthammer was on with O'Reilly saying Clinton essentially had Florida in the bag.

MSNBC of all networks seemed to have figured out around 8:40 ET or 7:40 CT that Trump was on his way to winning Florida.

The same thing occurred with Ohio.  Most of the networks talked about a tight race there that could go either way, even when Trump was 7-9 points ahead.  It was like they couldn't believe the numbers.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When did panic set in with Clinton camp? on: November 28, 2016, 11:53:33 pm
Where is this AAD thread?
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / When did panic set in with Clinton camp? on: November 28, 2016, 01:13:47 pm
Going hand-in-hand with my previous topic, when did the Clinton camp realize things were seriously awry?

I would love to hear an inside account of what took place in the Clinton bunker between 7 pm ET, when the projection of a 320-350 EV win was prevalent, to 11 PM or midnight, when defeat was imminent.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / When did the betting markets/projections/cw turn on Election Night? on: November 28, 2016, 01:11:46 pm
Looking back at Election Night, I'm curious to find out when the tide turned and when the markets, convention wisdom turned toward Trump.

From my own recollection, between 7 and 8 pm ET, the talking heads on TV were speaking in code as if Clinton would win, based on the exits, their talk of a Latino surge, the idea that FL was going Clinton's way.  I can recall even at 7:30 or 7:45 ET, the betting market odds on RCP had Clinton still at an 85 percent chance to win. As a Trump supporter, I was down.  I hadn't given up hope but from appearances, tweets (Frank Luntz), etc., it seemed like Clinton was on her way to a comfortable win.

For me, the realization that Trump could indeed win set in around 8:30 PM ET, with Trump starting to pull ahead in FL.   Numerous networks were still going with the spin that Clinton would win FL (even Krauthammer on FOX) even as the vote totals showed Trump gaining.  The Virginia vote also gave me some optimism.

Between, 9 PM and 10 PM it became obvious to me that Trump would win FL, NC and OH and this started to sink in with the TV analysts, much their shock.  Hearing that my own state, MN, was too close to call, and hearing about the Trump strength in WI, PA, MI and even NH made me a believer.  The stock market plunge, while unsettling, provided further confirmation.

12  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8 on: November 17, 2016, 01:30:54 am
Well this poll was proven to be absolute garbage, despite Lawrence O'Donnell singing its praises to high heaven.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: SNL's beautiful, non-comedic tribute to 2016 Election and Leonard Cohen on: November 14, 2016, 01:34:06 pm
Typical left-wing propaganda

14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / EXIT POLLS on: November 12, 2016, 06:24:55 pm
Perhaps I missed it, but I don't know how, but I didn't see any state-by-state exit polls during the 6 PM ET to 8 PM ET time period, or right before the results came in.

Seems like in years past, there were releases on Drudge and elsewhere.  Drudge had a 4-5 PM ET release showing Clinton up in PA and Trump up in IA, GA, OH, AZ, but there were no hard numbers.

Were there exit polls leaked in that time frame that showed anything? Either wrong in Clinton's favor or showing what was to come later in the night with Trump on top?
15  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 1 on: November 11, 2016, 01:26:56 pm
And when someone like me would point to a poll like this, I was mocked and ridiculed on this board.
16  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Monmouth Final National Poll: Clinton +6/+6 on: November 09, 2016, 08:49:22 pm
Well this poll proved to be a pile of garbage.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why was Atlas so delusional about the election? on: November 09, 2016, 08:47:33 pm
Well I made more than a few statements about Trump's path to victory, the Clinton corruption, Donna Brazile and polls showing Trump doing well.  Usually within minutes I was attacked, mocked, ridiculed.

I'm enjoying today's victory lap and the prospect of a Trump presidency.

MAGA!
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Congratulations To President Donald J. Trump on: November 09, 2016, 08:42:54 pm
who to thank:
Weiner
Huma
Podesta
Donna Brazile
Lawrence O'Donnell and the rest of the sanctimonious media types who tried to shame a nation into voting for Hillary
Project Veritas
and Hillary herself
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When did you realize that it was almost certain that Trump would win? on: November 09, 2016, 08:40:18 pm
Hopeful - seeing the big early lead in Virginia;

In the ballgame - Florida lead of 100,000 votes with over 90 percent in.

Ecstatic - North Carolina moving Trump's way and the big lead in Ohio.

Exuberant and jumping for joy that it was won - Leads in Wi, MI and  PA and seeing a Dem acquaintance look as white as a ghost.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How do you feel right now ? on: November 09, 2016, 08:37:20 pm
Exuberant.  Simply exuberant.

What a great day to be an American.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Over/Under: Clinton +5 nationally on: November 07, 2016, 07:05:15 am
Clinton by 2.6
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Trump win MI? on: November 07, 2016, 07:04:44 am
And Hillary led Bernie by 20.

If black turnout is down, Trump can pull the upset here.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 36 hours out - do you foresee any surprises? on: November 06, 2016, 08:20:19 pm
Pennsylvania is immediately deemed "too close to call."   Michigan as well.  One will be called for Trump before midnight.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WI, PA, GA on: November 04, 2016, 09:34:34 am
Georgia Trump +5
Wisconsin Clinton +4
Pennsylvania Trump +0.4
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CO, NC, and FL on: November 04, 2016, 08:10:42 am
Flip one state on the RCP map - Florida - and Trump wins.

This looks a lot like Bush vs. Gore right now.  Trump wins Florida and Pennsylvania, he wins.   Trump wins only Florida, he needs a Hail Mary such as Michigan or both NV/CO.
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