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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The American Montfort (1812–13 election) on: Today at 05:58:58 am
Straight ultra-federalist

And I thought I was a Republican hack lol
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics 2.0 (General Elections on April 28, 2019) on: March 25, 2019, 05:12:54 pm
Why are CC on the right? Couldn't they support a PSOE government?

Could? Absolutely, but it's not the most likely thing in the world.

Relations between CC and PSOE are quite bad since CC kicked out PSOE of the regional government in 2016 (since then CC has led a weak minority government in the islands). CC also dislikes UP a lot. However, CC could support a PSOE government, especially a PSOE-Cs one, but not a PSOE-UP one.

On the other hand, I don't think CC would prop up a PP-Cs-Vox government either.

CC is nominally centrist, but clearly much closer to the right than the left. Still their placement is incorrect on the graph. If we were doing a graph based on ideology, my proposal would be:

Bildu-ERC-UP-PSOE-PDECat-PNV-CC-Cs-Navarra Suma-PP-Vox
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: PyroTheFox for Lincoln on: March 25, 2019, 06:56:49 am
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE BILL: Foreign Animal Products Act (In need of Sponsor) on: March 25, 2019, 06:56:21 am
I also support the bill and motion for a final vote
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Senator tack50 on: March 24, 2019, 01:29:03 pm
Img

Statement on the Atlasia-UK common market

This morning, we learned that the president wants Congress to introduce legislation to repeal the Atlasia-UK common market agreement.

I am firmly opposed to said attempts. This agreement has been great for the United Kingdom and the Republic of Atlasia, strengthening our economies and bringing our people together. If the president insists on this course of action, I will demand a referendum so that it is the people who get the final say, and will campaign to remain in the Common Market.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Elections of 2019-You Decide: Indonesian General on: March 24, 2019, 10:59:39 am
PSI / Wiodo

Both presidential candidates are horrible though but Wiodo is the lesser evil
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The American Montfort (1809–10 election) on: March 24, 2019, 09:46:47 am
Republicans (not a warmonger)
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: FT 10-22: Resolution on SB 9010 (Debating) on: March 24, 2019, 09:44:11 am
Quote
A RESOLUTION
That this chamber voices its matter on SB 9010.
Quote
Whereas, the Senate is voting on SB 9010: Fulfilling Railway Promises Act.
Whereas, this bill establishes a useless passenger rail connection along a thinly populated route solely to make a stupid meme into reality.
Whereas, this service would strongly impinge on the rights of the governments of both Canada and Fremont to regulate and operate their passenger as they see fit.
Resolved, that this Parliament objects in the strongest possible terms to SB 9010.
Further Resolved, that this Parliament urges the Federal Congress to reject this idiotic legislation.
Further Resolved, that this Parliament urges all Senators and Representatives who reside in this region to vote Nay on this legislation.
Further Resolved, that this Parliament objects to the use of any funds of the Government of Fremont to be used to finance this ridiculous project.
Further Resolved, that the Government of Fremont categorically refuses to spend a single cent on funding this absurd project.


I introduce the following amendment.

Well, that is very harsh language, yikes!
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: What is your county named after? on: March 24, 2019, 09:43:47 am
It's named after palm trees, there were a lot apparently when the Spanish came and there still are a lot.

10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Congressional Discussion Thread on: March 24, 2019, 07:09:47 am
In speaking with the UK's prime minister today and a mutual understanding of a strong relationship between our nations moving forward, I urge a member of Congress to sponsor a bill that would repeal F.L. 2-8: Atlasian-United Kingdom Common Market Agreement.

So we are going to do Brexit here as well? Tongue
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SB 9108: Paycheck Fairness Act (Voting) on: March 24, 2019, 04:39:47 am
Aye
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SB 9108: Paycheck Fairness Act (LT Version - Debating) on: March 23, 2019, 09:53:13 pm
No objection to a vote here then
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is the most expensive items that you own? on: March 23, 2019, 08:27:47 pm
That I purely 100% own, my laptop, followed by my phone.
14  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE RESOLUTION: Expulsion Vote Length... (At Final Vote) on: March 23, 2019, 07:53:59 pm
Aye
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics 2.0 (General Elections on April 28, 2019) on: March 23, 2019, 06:37:10 pm
Also, since I was speaking about Spanish electoral geography, I guess I should mention that GAD3 and ABC published a poll where they split their results by province.

They claim they will release full results by autnonomous community for some of them tomorrow or on Monday.

But today they released their poll with maps

Img


The map both confirms and dismisses some of the claims I've made about trends. The blocks map clearly shows how Catalonia and the Basque Country are strong left wing areas (then again not surprising as PP has always had problems there). Andalucia is split. It's still a very left wing area even if it's trending right. I guess it's still not enough to get anything other than a tie out of it.

Surprisingly, the Canary Islands vote left! They have always been a right wing stronghold or at worst a tossup. So to see them going left is surprising to say the least.

As for the party map, it's a PSOE landslide. They even win in several places that weren't even won by Felipe González in 1982 (Lugo and Pontevedra in Galicia and Soria in Castille-Leon) despite a much bigger popular vote gap (48-27 compared to what, 31-21 at best here?). Of course back then there was a more marked 2 party system, sort of.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, Brexit imminent...maybe... on: March 23, 2019, 06:29:00 pm
On paper, even if the entire May cabinet (minus may herself of course) resigned, May could stay as PM right?

Just name new cabinet ministers, I guess there will be at least a dozen tories willing to go down with her. If necessary, she could even appoint them from the House of Lords? (where they wouldn't even need to worry for reelection)
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: SENATE RESOLUTION: Expulsion Vote Length Senate Rules Amendment (Debating) on: March 23, 2019, 06:25:19 pm
I second the call for a final vote.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Kalwejt - The Bada$$ Mod on: March 23, 2019, 05:16:46 pm
Your mixing up of decimal points and commas in numbers is infuriating.

Isn’t that how it is in most of Europe lol?

In French speaking Europe you use a space instead of a period.

For example I'd write 6.000 for you or 6,000 for an American as 6 000 (or here as it's below 10 000, 6000 works as well).

But I think France and Austria are the same in that 6,000 (with a comma) means 6 for us lol

I think the space is what international associations use?
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Tender Branson on: March 23, 2019, 04:21:23 pm
42% FF rating ?

Not bad.

But I guess it would be 55% if 150 people voted.

Your approval is exactly the same as Trump's lol. That gives me an idea for a poll Tongue
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics 2.0 (General Elections on April 28, 2019) on: March 23, 2019, 04:00:17 pm
Thing is, 1 election is an outlier, but several elections make a trend.

Even if you did a hypothetical 2000-2011 map (the only election you did not mention), it wouldn't be terribly different from that one for the most part.

I think the movement in Catalonia and the Basque country is not based on the Spanish left performing better, but instead on a nationalist realignment.

Think about this, in 2000, Batasuna was banned and both EA and ERC were very small compared to PNV and CiU. In 2016, ERC is actually larger than PDECat and Bildu is much larger than the old EA.

While the result of the election is very unclear, I think the geographic trends are very clear and will actually accelerate in 2019. I think there will now be a realignment based on the division between a left wing periphery and a right wing centralist Spain.

Honestly the most striking result for me is not the fact that the periphery is moving left and the center/Castillian Spain is moving right, but the north-south division within Castillian Spain.

Places like Cantabria or La Rioja have barely moved at all while Andalucia has moved right very fast. It's not even that "they were conservative already and they had nowhere to go"; as conservative stronghold Murcia was actually the place that moved the furthest right alongside Andalucia (from Right+11 in 2000 to Right+27 in 2016 for a trend of 16 points)
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Hypothetical 2019 U.S. Election- Parliamentary Israeli System on: March 23, 2019, 12:11:14 pm
Still Meretz/Progressive Party, but now Labour would be an even more tempting possibility. Bridge/Gesher also sounds really interesting.
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The American Montfort (1806–07 election) on: March 23, 2019, 12:09:36 pm
What happens if no one gets a majority of Electoral votes?
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: FT 10-22: Resolution on SB 9010 (Debating) on: March 23, 2019, 12:07:44 pm
I PMed YE and both our senators for their opinion on the railway and didn't receive any responses, so I would like input from other members of the Fremont government.

In my opinion, the bill would be of more benefit to Canada than Fremont and the cities of Whitefish, and especially Shelby, MT, are too small for the region to benefit and therefore we would likely be hit with a loss if we were to agree to fund it.  There is also no set amount for how much we would need to shell out for this project and so Parliament would have to approve those funds at a later time.  So for those reasons, I lean opposed to SB 9010.

For what's worth, I decided to extend the line all the way up to Seattle. That was already a possibility, but made it a mandate instead in the ammendment. (otherwise the route wouldn't make sense). I think the Seattle-Calgary part would see decent traffic, as well as the parts of the line in Canada up to Winnipeg.

The only part of the line that I could see bleeding money is anything further east than Winnipeg, but that would be in Canada anyways.

Of course, the resolution could end up being meaningless as the vote in the Senate right now is 2-2 (with Devout Centrist abstaining and Sen. ON Progressive not having voted yet). So either ON Progressive (who represents Fremont in the Senate) or Vice President Lumine (a Fremont citizen) will break up the tie.

24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is the UK ready for an American Earl of Essex? on: March 23, 2019, 11:04:11 am
Could this ammendment still be ratified? Tongue

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titles_of_Nobility_Amendment

Quote
If any citizen of the United States shall accept, claim, receive or retain, any title of nobility or honour, or shall, without the consent of Congress, accept and retain any present, pension, office or emolument of any kind whatever, from any emperor, king, prince or foreign power, such person shall cease to be a citizen of the United States, and shall be incapable of holding any office of trust or profit under them, or either of them
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics 2.0 (General Elections on April 28, 2019) on: March 23, 2019, 11:00:06 am
So is the Spanish left realigning, losing its support in various fiefdoms in the south to urban areas and more urban/high cost of living areas?

I would say yes and no. The left is definitely losing its support in the southern fiefdoms, but it's not necesarily gaining in urban areas, but instead areas that aren't fully "culturally Spanish/Castillian"

I didn't publish them here, but I've been doing PVI graphs for all Spanish autonomous communities. And one of the maps I made was a 2000-2016 trend map:

Img


Take the map with a huge amount of caution as I included parties like the Basque PNV or the Catalan CiU/PDECat on the right even if they would never support a PP government (especially not now, in 2000 it was a lot more likely)

Also keep in mind that the results in the African cities and the Canary Islands are distorted by unusually strong performances by GIL (in Ceuta/Melilla) or a quite left wing CC in the Canary Islands (led by Román Rodríguez back then, who is clearly a lefty at least now and even split from his former party)

Still, the PVI evolution is striking. Especially the fact that the South has trended a lot more than the North.

Fun fact I got from my graphs: 2016 was the first time Extremadura voted to the right of the nation since 1979. It also saw the worst results ever for the Spanish left in Andalucia, with a PVI of Left+5 (in 2000 it was at Left+24).

If you wonder why the left lost Andalucia, an important part is its march to the right. Since the current national polling average seems to be around Right+8; it's far from weird that Andalucia flipped.

I could share the full Excel sheet or the graphs if you want.

Still, while the left seems to be losing its old fiefdoms, it isn't winning necesarily in urban areas. I would expect small town places like Castellón or Álava to flip well before Madrid does.

Borrowing Atlas terms, it seems the Spanish left is losing its Andalusian #populists Purple heart while gaining among Barcelona/Valencia Catalan coastal elitists.
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