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3401  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Rasmussen: CT Gov - Rell (R) 65%, Malloy (D) 21%, DeStefano (D) 19% on: January 01, 2006, 03:32:40 pm
Rowland received 62.90% to be annoyingly precise. Its on this website: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/GOVERNOR/index.html.

I guess Joe Lieberman will be running for re-election; Lieberman is popular amongst both Republicans and Democrats and in 1994 and 2000 garned margins above what Rowland received. In 2006, in what is likely to be a Democratic year, he could got 62%-68% I feel. That would affect Rell's chances of hitting Rowland's 62.90% (likely) or above and around Lieberman's (67% in 1994, 63% in 2000) (unlikely)
3402  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Rasmussen: CT Gov - Rell (R) 65%, Malloy (D) 21%, DeStefano (D) 19% on: January 01, 2006, 02:59:07 pm
So do you think Rell can hit 65% re-election mark? Even 70% against a no-name Democrat who is poorly funded?
3403  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Rasmussen: CT Gov - Rell (R) 65%, Malloy (D) 21%, DeStefano (D) 19% on: January 01, 2006, 01:13:07 pm

This is almost not worth posting. But Rell holds what Rasmussen describes as 'in Command' and and 'huge lead' in two matchups with:

Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy who wins 21% to her 65%;

New Haven Mayor John DeStefano, Jr. has 19% to Rell who remains on 65%.

Rell's approval is currently at 87%; 81% believe she's doing a good job.

3404  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Robert Novak: Will the Supreme Court Cost the GOP the House of Representatives? on: December 31, 2005, 01:41:42 pm
Will the Supreme Court Cost the GOP the House of Representatives?
By Robert Novak
Dec 31, 2005    

WASHINGTON -- James P. Hoffa faces a possible challenge for re-election as president of the Teamsters in 2006 from the union's Southern leader, Tyson Johnson of Dallas.

The threat is considered serious enough by Hoffa for him to meet secretly with Johnson, a Teamsters vice president for the Southern Region, Dec. 21 at the Phoenix airport. The meeting's results were described by union sources as inconclusive, and Johnson has not definitely committed himself to running.

Hoffa has led the Teamsters out of the AFL-CIO for the second time and has been a national leader among union chiefs seeking a new direction to energize the labor movement. However, Hoffa has come under fire inside his union from erstwhile allies such as Johnson.


Before the Senate refused to close debate on the defense appropriations bill containing a provision to permit oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska several times assured the White House that he had the votes to invoke cloture.
The White House relied entirely on Stevens, president pro tempore of the Senate as the chamber's senior Republican, to get the votes. But he did not collect the two-thirds of senators needed to force the bill to a vote, and ANWR was removed from the military bill.

Stevens admitted defeat with an unusually bitter speech Dec. 21, the last night the full Senate was in session. "I don't deserve some of the comments that have been made by some senators," he said, referring to criticism for inserting ANWR in the defense bill. He indicated he especially resented criticism by Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd, the Senate's senior member.


The biggest Republican concern about future control of the House rests with the Supreme Court's decision in the Texas congressional redistricting case.

Republican leaders were stunned when the court agreed to a review. They had thought the issue was settled when the justices, by five to four, refused to consider a similar case in Pennsylvania. But Justice Anthony Kennedy, who cast the decisive vote on the Pennsylvania case, is a swing vote who could go the other way on Texas.

Even if the Supreme Court rules against the redistricting orchestrated by Rep. Tom DeLay, it might come too late to affect the 2006 election. Republicans gained six House seats from Texas after the redistricting.


Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress who is now serving his 12th term from upstate New York, might not seek re-election in 2006 if he is shut out from committee chairmanships.

Boehlert is serving his last year as Science Committee chairman thanks to term limits. Although he is next in line to head the Transportation Committee (a principal dispenser of pork), current Chairman Don Young of Alaska is expected to block Boehlert's ascension. Boehlert's lifetime support record by the American Conservative Union is only 40 percent.
A footnote: Rep. Tom Petri of Wisconsin is next in line at Transportation after Boehlert, but he may be stopped because of his support for a gas tax increase. That choice chairmanship could fall to Rep. John J. Duncan Jr. of Tennessee.


In sessions preceding their holiday recess, Democratic members of Congress peppered their floor speeches and press releases with references to Republicans as "Scrooge" and the "Grinch."

Rep. Bennie Thompson of Mississippi said the Republican budget bill was "a gift from an extremist Grinch." Rep. Dave Obey of Wisconsin said "Scrooge-onomics" best described Republican budget policy. "Bah humbug!" bellowed Sen. Edward M. Kennedy in two floor speeches. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said comparing Republicans with Scrooge "gives Scrooge a bad name." At least 19 members engaged in such rhetoric.

A footnote: Responding to this Democratic holiday-bashing, Republican Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire declared: "Let me point out that 'How the Grinch Stole Christmas' is a wonderful story. A fellow who went to school in New Hampshire wrote it. It is a fantasy."

News Analysis
Robert Novak is a Fox News Commentator and a columnist who writes Inside Report.

Copyright 2005 Creators Syndicate, Inc.
3405  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA Attorney General recount: McDonnell (R) wins with margin of 323 votes on: December 31, 2005, 05:49:41 am
Does this now set McDonnell up as the Republican nominee for Governor in 2009 now then?
3406  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / President Kerry - Election Night 2004. on: December 30, 2005, 05:49:19 pm
After a long and protracted night of returns, on 3rd November 2004, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts is declared the winner of the U.S. Presidential election. Kerry carries Ohio by 59,300 votes to win the Electoral College 271-266 over President George W. Bush.

However, a curious feat has repeated itself; in 2000, when Bush defeated Vice President Al Gore, he won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. Now, Kerry has done the same. As the 3rd November dawns Bush leads in the popular vote. TV news reports Kerry the winner, tentatively, as NBC, ABC, CBS and finally FOX agree that Kerry will become the nation's 44th President. Following this confirmation, at 2.53am Kerry walks out of his Boston home hand in hand with his wife Teresa, followed by his two daughters and his wife's three sons.

Kerry gives a short speech claiming victory, saying "I spoke with George Bush on the phone a few minutes ago, and he congratulated me as the winner of our contest. I would like to thank him for his graciousness and to claim victory for myself. It has been a tremendous effort on both sides. Our nation has expressed a desire for change; the right kind of change, change that recognises our values and traditions while building the road ahead to the rest of the 21st century. I would like to say thank you to my country and to say this also, I will try to vindicate the decision you have made. I know that as a people, we have some divisions in America today yet when I govern I will do all I can to heal them. God bless you all and God bless our great country."

While the crowd in Boston enthusiastically chears, on television some analysts express surprise that Kerry claimed victory before Bush officially conceded. Republican strategist Ed Rollins tells FOX "Its a disappointment to lose, but its a greater disappointment when your opponent kicks you when your down. This kind of reaction isn't worthy of the American system or her people". There are also briefly expressed fears that the spectacle of the 2000 election will be recreated; recounts, suits and political uncertainty in the country. These doubts are soon allayed, however, when cameras pan to the White House where at 3.03am President Bush appears to concede.

"Let me first say that I offer Senator Kerry my congratulations. We spoke on the phone a while ago and I wished him well. I would like to thank my supporters for all their hard work in recent days, and to ask them to pray for America and for the Senator. I would like to thank and bless the American people as a whole. This is their decision, and I respect them." The President appears solemn and speaks carefully, at his left shoulder stands his wife Laura who smiles between her husband and the cameras. The President's daughters are also present. At the end of his statement the President grasps his family firmly, and they embrace before the cameras.

As the night draws on, Vice President Dick Cheney and Vice President-elect John Edwards issue statements to the press. Cheney's, issued at 3.12am, reads: 'The people have made an important decision tonight. The President and I are honoured to have served our nation during testing times. While thanking all those citizens who voted for us, we would like to congratulate Senator Kerry and give him a smooth period of transition as President-elect. God bless America. Senator John Edwards himself appears outisde the Sheraton Hotel in Washington, D.C. at 3.36am. Standing alone, the Vice President-elect reads from a short bulletin "God bless you all and God bless America. President-elect Kerry and I are honoured to have been given the opportunity to govern this great nation. President Bush has been a spirited opponent, and his concession was noble in the great spirit of our Republic. We wish him all the best and pray for him. The people have spoken, and we are ready to hear them again." Edwards then proceeds to answer questions from the press. On a night in which the Republicans gained 4 seats in the Senate and 3 in the House of Representatives, Edwards is asked if the new President will find it hard to govern and pass his legislative programme, and if he will find it hard to preside over a Congress controlled by the opposition. "Well I think we will have to work together for the country. We are a nation at war, and there is much that needs to be done. We are very keen to begin the transition process and to meet with Congressional leaders to oversee a cooperative new session." He is also asked, how, as it appears to be becoming more clear that Kerry will be a President with no popular electoral mandate, he can hope to lead and unite a divided nation. "We have just held a very important contest", replies Edwards. "But now its over. We are ready to do business and ready to take up the reins come January. I think that the fair spirit of the people means that they will give us a chance and get behind us for the good of America." A follow-up is asked to the last question, has the defeat of the incumbent President, elected without an electoral mandate and also in the midst of a war, set a precedent? "I do not know if precedent is the right word. Americans have made a choice, but we are aware that there our differences of opinion in this nation. Together, we believe we can lead all the people to peace and prosperity under the flag of America, united." Following this Edwars says he will answer no more questions, and, waving to the crowds, goes back inside the Sheraton.

3407  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Who was the rightful winner of the 2000 election? on: December 30, 2005, 05:01:51 pm
The division here is going to be purely based on party lines. Having said that: Gore.
3408  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Jon Corzine on: December 30, 2005, 04:58:11 pm
Can someone explain why Republicans and some Democrats widely dislike Corzine? What is it that he's done? Hasn't he in some ways restored trust and fairness in New Jersey and is credible because he is not a Democratic machine candidate?
3409  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2007 Gubernatorial Races on: December 29, 2005, 04:47:30 pm
I did mention Mitch Landrieu in my post.
3410  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Jon Corzine on: December 29, 2005, 03:45:38 pm
When he ran for Governor of New Jersey this year, did Corzine give up a good position in the Senate because he believes he can run for President in 2008? They mentioned on The Beltway Boys that he could well have ambitions.
3411  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2007 Gubernatorial Races on: December 29, 2005, 03:29:35 pm
Landrieu is a Senator, not a governor.

But I pretty much agree with you. Blanco and Fletcher are likely to be defeated and Barbour is likely to be re-elected (although there's also a good chance he'll run for president).

Sorry. Duh! I thought that might have gone wrong somewhere.
3412  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / 2007 Gubernatorial Races on: December 29, 2005, 03:24:34 pm
Is it more or less fair to say that both Governors Kathleen Blanco (D-LA) and Ernie Fletcher (R-KY) are likely to be defeated in 2007 as Governor Haley Barbour (R-MS) is re-elected?

In the recent SurveyUSA - 50 State Gov Approval, Blanco ranked 47th in approval 63% Disaproval to 33% Approval while Fletcher ranked at 48th - 63% Disapproval to 31% Approval. By contrast, Barbour's ratings in Mississippi are 55%-38% in his favour. Thus it seems likely that Democrats and Republicans switch the Louisiana and Kentucky Governor's Mansions in 2007 while the GOP holds Mississippi.

Then, who do you think will be the likely winners in these contests in the two states? I guess in Louisiana a Democrat could challenge Blanco in the primary - Congressman Jefferson, Melancon or Lieutenant Governor Landrieu? In LA for the Republicans, both Senator David Vitter and Bobby Jindal would be the favourites. Jindal lost to Landrieu in 2003 and now serves in the District Vitter represented before he was elected in 2004. But both Landrieu and Vitter have only served since January 2005, which appears to be a very short amount of time before you decide to run for something else.

In Kentucky, like in Jindal, Representative Chandler, who lost to him in 2003 could challenge Fletcher. I think the Democratic bench in Kentucky is quite shallow, apart from Daniel Mongiardo or Ken Lucas who else is there with the statewide recognition?

What do you think?
3413  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Maine county swings and 'trends' v. the nation on: December 29, 2005, 03:10:18 pm
That was really interesting analysis; thank you.
3414  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senators by party over the last 50 years. on: December 29, 2005, 05:40:32 am
Thats interesting. Is Nebraska about to go very light red if Nelson is re-elected in 2006? Virginia is a surprise to me; I guess there will be no Democrats there until 2008 if Warner retires and Allen is elected President.
3415  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Maine county swings and 'trends' v. the nation on: December 28, 2005, 05:59:37 pm
I can't actually see any of those. Maine seems difficult to predict due to the character it shares with New Hampshire and Vermont; I imagine it will continue voting Democratic but it go narrowly for John McCain if he campaigned there and given the right circumstances.
3416  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you have voted for... on: December 28, 2005, 05:57:54 pm
1904 Roosevelt

1908 Bryan

1912 Wilson

1916 Wilson

1920 Cox

1924 LaFollette

1928 Smith

1932 Roosevelt

1936 Roosevelt

1940 Roosevelt

1944 Roosevelt

1948 Truman

1952 Stevenson

1956 Stevenson

1960 Kennedy

1964 Johnson

1968 Humphrey

1972 McGovern

1976 Carter

1980 Carter

1984 Mondale

1988 Dukakis

1992 Clinton

1996 Clinton

2000 Gore

2004 Kerry
3417  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Novak: If Trent Lott Retires, Democrat Moore Would Win His Seat on: December 28, 2005, 05:53:25 pm
Out of interest, does any one know whether John Stennis was ever pushed close by a Republican challenger?

Stennis was re-elected unopposed in 1952, 1958, 1964 and 1976. In 1970 he defeated Independent candidate William R. Thompson 88%-11%. In 1982 he defeated Hayley Barbour in what would be his last and his closest race by 64%-35%.
3418  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps on: December 28, 2005, 05:26:49 pm

Dems pick up 7 seats and retake the Senate.  You heard it here first.
Vermont is Sanders.
3419  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Future Senators on: December 28, 2005, 05:12:41 pm
Hey this is my first post. Who do you expect to become a Senator eventually? I have some predictions -

If John McCain is elected President in 2008, a possibility could well be Governor Janet Napolitano, if she decides to complete her term as Governor though, Attorney General Terry Goddard would be the leading Democrat in a race.

We know that Sam Brownback has pledged to retire to run for President in 2008. My guess is that Governor Kathleen Sebelius would appoint herself to his seat, she would also have a fair chance of holding it in the election.

Carl Levin could well retire in 2008, if he does so then the most likely bet appears to be Representative Candice Miller running for his seat. Miller is broadly electable and considered so by the statewide GOP, who attempted to get her to run against Debbie Stabenow in 2006.

New Mexico
If, like Levin, Senator Pete Domenici retires in 2008, Representative Tom Udall could well be a likely candidate to run for the Democrats; another possibility might be Patricia Madrid, currently State Attorney General and a candidate against Heather Wilson in 2006.

If Arlen Specter dies or retires, I think Governor Rendell would appoint Barbara Hafer to the seat. This could happen before 2010.
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