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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 04:32:23 pm
Good riddance.

To the Greens (I guess) ?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 04:25:53 pm
Also:

While Strache/FPÖ did not achieve the 26.9% of Jörg Haider in 1999, they easily passed Haider in raw votes by about 100.000 votes - because of high turnout and more eligible voters than 18 years ago.

The 1.34 million votes is a new record high (excl. the 2.3 million votes for Norbert Hofer of course).
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 04:10:29 pm
It is official:

The Greens have been obliterated by the Austrian voter and will not be represented in the next parliament.

There are some 50.000 votes left to count and the Greens need 17.000 more to pass the 4% threshold. Or every 3rd remaining vote.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 04:00:12 pm
Only Salzburg City's estimated 13.000 postal ballots remain + the count on Thursday of an estimated 30.000 to 80.000 ballots that were cast in another electoral district than the own.

Turnout stands at 79.2% right now on the BMI results page.

80% is still possible.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 02:57:34 pm
Is there any chance that NEOS will enter the coalition?

No, but they could vote with an ÖVP/FPÖ government for a constitutional deficit and debt brake, which all 3 parties strongly want.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 02:43:31 pm
Only the postal count from Vienna, Graz and Salzburg City are missing.

The BMI results page has been updated to 4.87 million counted votes.

The 3 cities above will deliver another 220.000 counted votes, which means only 30-40.000 votes are missing for 80% turnout. That is possible for the Thursday count.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 02:14:06 pm
For 80% turnout, we'd need exactly 798.000 counted postal ballots.

Not totally impossible, but I guess we'll just fall short of this big important threshold in democratic participation.

Probably 79.8% or sonething, which would still be +5%.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 01:33:32 pm
Tender, has an Austrian newspaper ever come up with a title Die k.u.k. Republik in the last 12 months? Tongue

No, why ?

Kern & Kurz are unlikely to work together.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 01:30:23 pm
The seat projection has been adjusted, based on the progress in the postal vote count:

http://www.vol.at/briefwahl-auszaehlung-koennte-bis-morgen-dauern/apa-1438707478

The FPÖ will lose 2 seats because of the postal votes, while ÖVP and NEOS will gain 1 each.

The constitutional supermajority for ÖVP/FPÖ/NEOS (123/183 seats) could hold.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 01:18:20 pm
Even in the City of Linz, where the Greens got 24% in the postal vote last time, they crashed to 8% this time.

But the Greens need 8% in the postal vote in all of Austria to pass the 4% threshold.

So, if they cannot manage more than 8% in one of their strongholds ... they are done.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 01:08:18 pm
Postal ballots are counted today, but the results will only be published at 10:30 pm CET or later.

Ballots cast outside their original regional constituency (which are probably less than 100,000) will be counted on Thursday, hence the final result will be published on Thursday evening. Keep in mind that the demographics that cast a ballot outside their own constituency tend to be very different, often university students etc., so it might be wise to wait for them, even though they are very few.

It is possible that counting in some districts/states resumes tomorrow, if the mail-in votes are not counted by 10pm.

Everyone is especially carefully when it comes to counting postal ballots this time, after the CC ruling last year.

Some 50-100k votes will be counted on Thursday anyway, like you said, so ... there is no hurry.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: Today at 01:03:41 pm
Carinthia and Burgenland have finished their mail-in counts and their results definitely mean that the Greens are out of parliament.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Election Prediction Contest 2017 on: October 15, 2017, 03:29:53 pm
ÖVP: 32.5%
FPÖ: 26.0%
SPÖ: 24.1%
NEOS: 5.2%
Greens: 4.9%
Pilz: 4.7%

Congrats.

It seems you had the best prediction ... Wink
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 03:25:47 pm
Of 583k Green voters in 2013, 147k voted for the Greens again. 161k went to SPÖ, 84k to the ÖVP (!!), 67k to Pilz and 57k to NEOS.

Judgement Day.

PS: according to the ORFs Special 10pm news report, the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition will come quickly.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 02:56:49 pm
Kurz to deliver his victory speech soon.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 02:34:48 pm
Election Day Survey (= our "Exit Poll") in English:



http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2017_aut-national-election_charts.pdf

Quote
On Sunday, October 15, Austria has elected a new Parliament. – After this evening, the majority of voting cards (889.193 have been issued) still remains to be counted from Monday, October 16.

Analysis and motives

The ORF/SORA/ISA election day survey among 1.219 eligible voters shows which motives moved voters in this election.

Dissatisfaction and wish for change mark this election

As the election day survey shows, dissatisfaction with the government and the country’s path in the past five years have marked the mood among voters:

When asked about Austria’s development in the past, more than four out of ten respondents (45%) say that there has been a negative trend. (only 17% perceive improvements, and 37% see no changes).

Therefore, 72% of respondents say that they are not satisfied with the work of the Federal Government (46% rather not, 26% not at all).

Although being part of the government, the List Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) has been successful in translating this mood into votes:

Kurz receives 34% of the vote among those not satisfied with the government, that is similar to the Freedom Party (35%) and much more than the Social-Democrats (SPÖ, 14%).
Therefore, the List Kurz can mobilise traditional conservative voters as well as some of the protest vote.

Asylum and integration on top of the agenda

Throughout the election campaign, the topics of asylum, migration and integration have been most discussed in TV confrontations and have been on top of the agenda of the ÖVP Liste Kurz and the Freedom Party (FPÖ).

As the election day survey shows, asylum/integration has also been the most discussed topic in the electorate (58% say they discussed it “very often”).

Second most discussed topic are “social benefits” (49% “very often”), a topic that has often been linked to asylum in arguments for cutting social benefits for asylum seekers.
Further voting motives

Kurz with personalisation strategy

When asked about the “main reason” for voting for their party, 42% of Kurz-supporters said it was the “leading candidate”. Far less important was the motive of “party positions” (15% “main reason”).

The topics most discussed among Kurz-voters have been asylum/integration (55% very often discussed) and social benefits (41%). Kurz has promised taking a strict stance on both issues.

Social-democrats: party positions and leading candidate equally important

For SPÖ-supporters, leading candidate Kern as well as the party’s positions have been important voting motives.

Throughout the election campaign, SPÖ-voters discussed most about social benefits (57%), asylum/integration (48%), jobs (45%) and health care (41%).

Freedom Party: protest and pessimism

86% of Freedom Party (FPÖ) voters perceive Austria’s development in the past five years negative and 81% are pessimistic about the future, i.e. they say that the younger generation’s lifes will be worse than today.

Asked about their main voting motive, 34% of FPÖ-supporters said it was party positions followed by the FPÖ being a watchdog (12%). Leading candidate Strache was mentioned by only 5% as their main voting motive.

Often discussed topics among FPÖ-voters during the campaign were asylum/integration (88%), security (69%) and social benefits (60%).

Separate analysis for other parties not possible due to sample size.

Who voted for whom? Voting by socio-demographic groups

The election day survey shows differences in voting behaviour of various socio-demographic groups.

Differences by age

Both ÖVP and SPÖ performed better among older (60+) than younger voters (16-29 year-olds). Freedom Party and Greens, on the other hand, performed better among the young.

Differences by formal education and occupational status

Among blue-collar workers, the Freedom Party came in first with 59% of the vote (SPÖ: 19%, ÖVP: 15%)

Therefore, the FPÖ succeeded most in speaking to the political mood among blue-collar workers: More than 80% of blue-collar workers are dissatisfied with the Federal Government, and 54% say that Austria is rather an “unjust” society.

Among white-collar workers, the List Kurz receives 31%, among self-employed 41%.

Among voters with secondary degree or university education, the List Kurz receives 38% of the vote in front of social-democrats (27%).

Which party in a coalition government

Respondents were also asked which parties they would prefer in a coalition government.

Among all respondents, 64% want the ÖVP in the government, 43% the FPÖ and 44% the SPÖ.

ÖVP-supporters prefer a coalition of the ÖVP with the FPÖ (39%).
FPÖ-supporters prefer a coalition of the FPÖ with the ÖVP (60%).

Feelings about democracy and the EU

Concerning Austria’s EU membership, respondents want to stay but want Austria pursue its national interest stronger:

42% agree strongly and 26% fairly with the statement „There are more benefits than drawbacks for Austria being a member of the EU“.

62% agree strongly and 24% fairly with the statement „Austria should pursue its national interest in the EU much stronger”

Finally, respondents show a strong support for democracy:

72% agree strongly and 22% fairly with the statement “Democracy may have its problems but it is better than any other form of government”.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 02:31:08 pm
Vote movement analysis between 2013 and 2017:

http://orf.at/wahl/nr17/#migration
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 02:27:16 pm
Tender regarding immigration what was FPÖ platform on the issue? Considering the  FPÖ would likely give the ÖVP most of what it wants on economic issues in return for them supporting their measures on immigration.

Being hard-line against further illegal immigration (they want zero immigration from economic migrants and swift deportations of criminal migrants) and a huge welfare cut for foreigners to zero (only a roof over the head in shelters, food and basic medical treatment).

That is something the ÖVP could work with, after Kurz adapted most of the FPÖ's platform in the past months.

New sites reporting that the OVP underwent a revamp to make it more anti-immigrant and euroskeptic. I thought just the opposite. I thought they were trying to ape Macron. Is there some truth to these claims or is it just the media trying to make every story conform to their narrative of the "the far right rising"?

Still want an answer to this question. Also, what is the difference between the Greens and PILZ?

See my post above.

The differences between the Greens and Pilz are not all too big, with the main difference being that Pilz is not as naive as the Greens on illegal immigration and the threat of political Islam in Austria.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 02:22:19 pm
I find it more likely that the FPÖ loses more due to postal votes than the ÖVP wins and that therefore one seat would go from the FPÖ toward SPÖ, NEOS or PILZ.

The SORA/ORF projection including the postal ballots still have a 123/183 seat majority (67.2%) for ÖVP-FPÖ-NEOS though.

But yeah, it will really come down to the Greens crossing the 4% or not and if the FPÖ loses a lot in the postal ballot count. I think it is unlikely that the Greens make it, because Pilz will also gain a good share in that count. But will he get an additional seat ? Don't know.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 02:15:07 pm
I find it more likely that the FPÖ loses more due to postal votes than the ÖVP wins and that therefore one seat would go from the FPÖ toward SPÖ, NEOS or PILZ.

Hopefully, the ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS supermajority holds. I really like the idea of a constitutional deficit and debt break, like the Swiss have it.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 02:13:44 pm
Because of that it can be fairly said that the RIGHT clearly won this election.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 02:10:53 pm
With the Greens currently out of parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS would have a 2/3 majority in parliament, a constitution-changing supermajority. By 1 seat.

In parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS recently voted YES on a proposal to introduce a constitutional deficit and debt brake (but in the outgoing parliament they had no supermajority).

So it will depend on the Greens if their 1-seat supermajority holds ... Tongue
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 02:04:49 pm
The pollster OGM (which has historically been the best pollster), has nailed it once again:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Austrian_legislative_election,_2017

They only overestimated the ÖVP by 1% and underestimated the FPÖ by 1% - but absolutely nailed every other party.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 02:01:59 pm
FINAL result (without the 800.000 returned postal ballots which are counted tomorrow and on Thursday):

31.4% ÖVP (will rise to 32% with postal ballots)
27.4% FPÖ (will drop to 26%)
26.7% SPÖ (will remain at 27%)
  5.0% NEOS (will rise a bit)
  4.1% PILZ (will rise a bit)
  3.3% Greens (will rise, but it will be a cliffhanger if they make the 4% threshold)
  2.1% Others

Turnout will rise to some 80% with the postal ballots.

https://wahl17.bmi.gv.at
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: October 15, 2017, 01:51:43 pm
All 2100 cities are now fully counted, the last city in Tyrol (=> Kufstein) has come in 5 minutes ago.

The Interior Ministry still has to update their page though:

https://wahl17.bmi.gv.at
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