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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Awaiting Trump's coal comeback, miners reject retraining on: November 04, 2017, 09:00:02 pm
"Let them eat Code" - people in this thread.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand 2017: Maps on: October 29, 2017, 07:27:15 pm
Here is an interactive mapping the results in every voting booth in NZ. It also shows the swings from 2014.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/27-09-2017/interactive-mapping-every-booths-votes-from-the-2017-general-election/


I like how the Labour vote nearly quadrupled on Stewart Island from 2014.

EDIT: Same on the Chatham Islands #actually.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Japan Oct 22 2017 on: October 26, 2017, 11:56:16 pm
To hazard a guess: I imagine that young Japanese are far less likely to be strict pacifists and, thus, are liable to be sympathetic to Abe's push for constitutional reforms, which can be framed as "modernizing" Japan, whereas elderly Japanese - at least, the left-inclined ones - who grew up in the shadow of WWII, are far more likely to be strict pacifists or to take issue with militarism. Further, Abenomics is rather radical in its thrust - constituting a break from ill-advised half-measures and the schizoid nature of post-90s crisis management in Japan - so I can see why young people in Japan would back the LDP, who are seeking to bring Japan out of its ~30 year period of malaise.

The LDP is a terrible party and Abe is a bit of a nutcase but they deserve credit for reviving the Japanese economy.



I think a better explanation is that turnout among the youngest age groups is utterly dire so those who do show up are unusually 'committed'.

Although the successes of the Abe government are undoubtedly factors as well.
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you have voted in the previous election? New thread on: October 26, 2017, 01:02:26 pm
Protest for the Commies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_general_election,_1923
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is March 29, 2019 going to be the worst day in UK history? on: October 26, 2017, 01:00:43 pm
No

Although fwiw it could turn out to be one of the most humiliating in the history of British governance. But that's not the same thing, at all.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Polygamous Marriages be legalized? on: October 26, 2017, 12:58:24 pm
Marriage, now shorn of its traditional markers and the rights-of-passage associated with it (which were always largely stylized anyway), is fundamentally a legal contract.

Good luck trying to re-write the law of any western country to recognize marriages where the number of parents is n>2
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite current Anglosphere leader on: October 26, 2017, 12:56:36 pm
Ardern is the only acceptable one.
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Jacob Rees-Mogg on: October 26, 2017, 12:40:21 pm
Anyway, JRM is basically a 4chan meme as a person so you can guess what my opinion is.
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Jacob Rees-Mogg on: October 26, 2017, 12:39:59 pm
I guess HP. I disagree with him in almost everything.

As someone said, if he becomes the Conservative leader, the next election will be between 1950's Labour and 1950s Conservatives

This is the opposite of truth.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem on: October 26, 2017, 12:37:30 pm
Besides its a silly comparison: there's been a reduction in the number of by-elections in time (62 between 1959-1964; 30 between 1974O-1979, 24 between 1987-1992; 18 between 1992-1997; 14 between 2005-2010, and 21 between 2010-2015 - but that includes two by-elections where Tory MPs stood down after defecting to UKIP and a few where Sinn Fein MPs stood down to either end double jobbing or to contest Dail seats so I'd to loath to include them: also limiting my sample to parliaments that went at least four and a half years although the shortest lasting of these was the 1974-79 one) as MPs are typically younger, tend to live longer and are also healthier than they once were.

There's also the factor that the main difference between this parliament and the 1992-1997 one is that then the Tories went in to the parliament with a majority of over 20 which generally is workable in most cases and only lost that late in their term after eight by-election losses (four to the Liberals, three to Labour, one to the SNP: they retained no Tory-held by-election seats) and three defections (Alan Howarth to Labour, Emma Nicholson to the Liberals, and George Gardiner technically to the Referendum Party although he never spoke in parliament as a Referendum Party MP) while in this one they need to get a few opposition votes to pass anything, and the deal with the DUP isn't a coalition or anything strong: its supply and confidence and that's no guarantee for ordinary legislation.  Even in the 1992-1997 parliament it took until October 1996 for them to officially lose their majority for good (technically lost it a few times before that as they suspended the whip from Tory MPs, but they still mostly voted with the government in this time) and then they got through the next few months with support from the UUP.  The DUP aren't likely to pull their support from the Tories until after March 2019 but once they do the government is defeated: and the DUP - especially the parliamentary DUP which is incredibly old and very very odd - are exactly the sort of party that would probably pull their support over something incredibly odd.

As I wrote on AAD, the big issue here could be Farm Subsidies.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Macron to form new European Parliament political group on: October 24, 2017, 10:03:34 pm
Fianna Fail are Liberal Democratic in the Japanese Sense.

This will go nowhere, nobody really cares about the EU in a political sense.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: October 03, 2017, 10:30:43 pm
Why don't people get that with MMP, there are no winners or losers until a government is formed.

There's still a lingering FPP mindset, and given that there hasn't been a situation where the biggest party lost, the automatic assumption is that the biggest party wins. Hopefully that is disproven this election.

Relevant historical comparison: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_general_election,_1948
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Catalan Crisis Megathread on: October 01, 2017, 03:23:47 pm
Do we have any idea when there might be results?
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: high-tech authoritarian country (eg. China) vs. agrarian democracy (eg. Ireland) on: September 23, 2017, 06:43:56 pm
*laughs hysterically*
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 16, 2017, 08:24:24 pm
I'm a strong believer in a form of the way that Ireland does things - the election of an impartial Speaker who is automatically elected without needing to contest a seat.  Ideally this would lead to the seat that they were elected to becoming vacant and there being a by-election in the constituency or the next person filling any list seat - would make sure that there were was no partisan change in the composition of parliament based on whoever is chosen as speaker.

I'm not a great fan of the system but for New Zealand there is an easy solution to this - ensure that the Speaker is a list MP.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 14, 2017, 11:49:45 pm
Hahaha that test was terrible and I couldn't answer half the questions because I would need more details about how things work in New Zealand before answering

Anyhoo...

TOP - 60% (looool)
Green - 59%
Labour - 57%
Maori - 49%
Mana - 46%
National - 46%
ACT - 45% (45 too high, the test is bad, see)
Legalise Cannabis - 44%
United Future - 42% (are they even running now?)
New Zealand First - 37%
Conservative Party - 32% (better)
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem on: September 14, 2017, 11:23:14 pm
After the election some commentators (intellectual, wise) claimed that the hung parliament result would mean a Softer Brexit and made no attention to any other political issue that may come by this parliament while it is in session.

Instead the reality is Brexit-related legislation is going to pass through parliament fairly easily. Everything else will not.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 07, 2017, 11:47:28 pm
Link Broken
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 03, 2017, 06:38:48 pm
Yes, but I said Auckland Central was the only National held one. Given the polls, I wouldn't expect much Labour held electorates to be in danger of flipping.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why did Trump do better among Northern surburban voters, worse among southern? on: September 03, 2017, 06:37:19 pm
He didn't, it's just that wealthier Southern whites in the suburbs were traditionally more likely to be GOP than those in the North. On the election day therefore some - more economically cautious and liberal minded - of that persuasion flipped in the South while a similar person in the North had been voting for the Dems in Presidential races for quite some time.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dark Horse candidates for 2020 on: September 03, 2017, 05:40:05 pm
I could totally imagine, if Bernie doesn't run, a random House member like Jayapal (or even somebody elected in 2018) inheriting a large chunk of his coalition.

People who remember that far back, how long did Bachmann telegraph her intentions to run in 2012?

I don't think Jayapal is eligible?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 03, 2017, 04:54:18 pm
Thanks. Although I note there is only one National held electorate with a majority smaller than 1,500: Auckland Central.

(God, the margins on the some of the Suburban and Rural held National seats are enormous).

Also one of these days I would like someone to explain to me the patterns in the flag referendum. I see that all the electorates in favour of safe National ones, but why those ones? What was going on?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 03, 2017, 03:05:16 pm
Is there a list of marginal seats anywhere? I know it's MMP so it doesn't matter so much but judging from the map of the last election there doesn't seem to be that many marginals.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 03, 2017, 02:54:43 pm
NZ first holds an electorate seat, so they will be able to still claim list seats even if they slip below threshold.

The Greens really should have made that part of their initial deal with labour - to be granted a constituency somewhere so they also wouldn't have to worry about the threshold.

It would be foolish to assume that Northland is safe.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New Zealand Election 2017 on: September 03, 2017, 12:42:09 pm
Newshub/Reid Research Poll

Aug 22 to Aug 30

National 43.3% (-1.1%)
Labour 39.4% (+6.3%)
NZ First 6.6% (-2.6%)
Greens 6.1% (-2.2%)
TOP 1.9% (-0.1%)
Māori 1% (-0.5%)
ACT 0.6% (---)

Changes from Aug 2-8 poll.

Since WINston's superannuation (pension) "scandal" broke, his numbers have been on the decline. Historically NZ first has done better than their polls and the Greens have done worse, but apparently at least some of the pollsters have been attempting to compensate for that.

Looking forward to the possibility of there only being two parties in parliament, just like the old days.
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