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February 17, 2019, 05:09:53 am
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The case for Steve Bullock on: February 16, 2019, 01:27:40 pm
Thanks Tender for sharing this excellent analysis. This why I've been saying early on, why Steve Bullock should be the Democratic nominee for president. Not only would he have a great chance to beat Trump, and beat him badly, he would also be an effective president that the country needs.

In addition, I might say, Steve Bullock has also no baggage and he is fresh face with enough experience to get the job done. I hope for 1976 style wonder and see him winning the nomination. He shoud then pick Kamala Harris as his running mate.
Doesn't he have that Staffer scandal?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: TX-PPP (D): Cornyn +2 against Beto on: February 15, 2019, 05:49:08 pm
TBH Id expect Beto to be leading especially in a PPP poll but then again it is Texas which has the same problems as Nevada.


3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Whatís more likely: GOP winning CA or Democrat winning ID? on: February 15, 2019, 05:12:50 pm
The one where the opposite party came within 3% in a Superintendent race.
How did Cindy Wilson do so well in such a red state?

A lot of red state voters dislike the GOP on education issues
Our forum resident there is Alabama_Indy
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: VA-09 in 2022 on: February 15, 2019, 05:04:31 pm
*gets the popcorn

This gonna be gud.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Amazon pulls out of NYC on: February 15, 2019, 05:02:37 pm
Yes, I'm sure AOC's 77% Clinton, 82% non-white, $58k-in-NYC-money-median-income district will be very receptive to a Bloombergist-Bezosist primary challenger.

A poll showed the Amazon HQ2 project was more popular among blacks and hispanics than among whites in NYC.  Though how strongly held that support was, I don't know.

Ironically the people let in by Amazon HQ2 would have been more supportive of AOC.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do recessions cause polarization? on: February 15, 2019, 05:00:24 pm


No


https://www.politico.com/story/2008/10/racists-for-obama-014691
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone VII: Insert Something Philosophical Sounding Here on: February 15, 2019, 04:59:14 pm
People at my working class job in Portage County were talking about how horrible Trump is and blaming him for people not ordering anything from the business. I was almost fooled into thinking they're not going to vote for him next year. Fortunately, because I am an enlightened member of USElectionAtlas Dot Org, Trump can be safe knowing they are in his column because Ohio is Missouri now.

Those Trump-Dewine voters will flock to Kamala.

but they voted for Brown over Jim "Fitzgerald with a license" Renacci.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY 2020 senate Megathread on: February 15, 2019, 11:53:02 am
It's super weird.  The only reason that the Dems have a chance is because Mitch McConnell is running (because of his unpopularity), but the reason that they will probably lose is because Mitch McConnell is running (because he's an amazing campaigner).


The reason they will lose is because Mitch McConnel has an R next to his name and its Kentucky.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: What is Josh Mandel's political future? on: February 15, 2019, 08:40:30 am
Any Ohio seat held by a Democrat, with the possible exception of Tim Ryan's district, is safe. He'd need to move elsewhere to get into the House.


Eh kapturs shoukd be unpacked a bit to what tim ryan has rn
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gillibrand trashes on Beto in Iowa on: February 15, 2019, 08:20:39 am
As a huge fan of OíRourke, if thatís true I do consider it extremely shortsighted of him and his campaign, but we can only be so harsh when he is pretty much the reason Texas Dems made such huge gains in 2018.
Fear not
I was slightly off and was thinking something like 50k but out of the 80 mil he raised he has 300k left which is less than 0.5%


Gillibrand had 11 million spare from 2018.
https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033540




Its clear he helped every texas d to a great degree.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gillibrand trashes on Beto in Iowa on: February 15, 2019, 08:07:09 am
I mean, can any Beto supporter pretend that what she said isn't true?
Not a supporter but more a gillibrand hater(not for franken who probably deserved the boot.)
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/10/20/nyregion/gillibrand-campaign-spending.amp.html


Beto had a few  thousand left from his campaign. He basically spent it all.
Gillibrand had 11 million left in her campaign account.
Beto also shared money with texas ds
Beto didnt hoard a penny.

Gillibrand should have gome after beto not endorsing GOJ
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: February 2019 Federal Election on: February 15, 2019, 02:12:21 am
President
1.Tmthforu94/Lumine
2. MB298/KoopaDaQuick

House
1.Tea Party Hater
2.Louisville Thunder
3.CMB222
4.Vern1988
5.Pericles
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: 2019 February Lincoln Regional/Senate General Election on: February 15, 2019, 02:05:11 am
Senate
1. Louisville Thunder
2. Misteer

Governor:
1.ReaganClinton20XX
2.Peanut
Assembly
1. lfromnj
2.BG-NY
3. Ishar

Referendrum:
1.Lobster Rolls
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rate Tippecanoe County, IN on: February 14, 2019, 10:52:31 pm
Lean R although a Beto like campaign/candidate could push it all the way to Likely D.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate votes to confirm William Barr as AG on: February 14, 2019, 10:47:26 pm
Why Doug Jones, why!? Voting for him won't get you re-elected! Meanwhile, Sinema continues to disappoint. And Manchin is being Manchin. You know something's wrong when Rand Paul makes you look bad.

You may not have that extra seat from Arizona if Sinema had not run. And you definitely would not have Manchin's seat, as that would have been an automatic Republican pickup if he had not run for reelection.

D's still would have won that. People voted for Sinema because she was a D. Any crossover support she got was lost by the Green vote. It still amazes me how liberal Jon Tester acts.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Election 2020 on: February 14, 2019, 10:44:02 pm
https://www.facebook.com/Mark-B-Graham-for-President-2020-198600924264442/

Bronz would endorse him.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY 2020 senate Megathread on: February 14, 2019, 10:42:47 pm
McConnell would have lost in 2014 if Romney was president.
Just like Barr lost in 2018 cuz Trump was President


That district is trending D though.
Its a bit like Oh 12th and NC 9th.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Give a bronz4141-style response on the preceding topic on: February 14, 2019, 02:57:14 pm
The Green New Deal is crazy and she is too anti white. Some of her economic policies are fine but overall she is too extreme for this country.

bronz for president.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump Cabinet confirmation hearings **live commentary thread** on: February 14, 2019, 02:54:17 pm
I love how Tester is more liberal than Sinema.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Republican Majority Alaska State House Votes For a Democratic Speaker on: February 14, 2019, 02:53:07 pm
LMAO HOLY sh**t

Its Willie Brown 2.0


Alaska D's = one of the best state parties in the country

The Alaska Democrats really have been running circles around the Republicans in the state legislature despite minority status for over a decade now.

yeah its honestly better than the NY GOP which had to get a gerrymandered state senate.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Republican Majority Alaska State House Votes For a Democratic Speaker on: February 14, 2019, 02:47:58 pm
LMAO HOLY sh**t

Its Willie Brown 2.0


Alaska D's = one of the best state parties in the country
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Amazon pulls out of NYC on: February 14, 2019, 01:53:52 pm
Good for the country overall and sends a message but bad for NYC.

Its a prisoners dilemma situation.
I donít know about you, but every renter in NYC just sighed for relief just now.

IMO the net benefit is greater than the cons for NYC overall.
However the country loses more overall.

23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why did El Paso swing D while the RGV swing R in 2016? on: February 14, 2019, 01:52:32 pm
I've also wondered this. We saw similar trends in the 2018 elections in Texas. I think it because places like McAllen, Mission, Brownsville, etc. are moreso bedroom communities where people are more religious and therefore more socially conservative. El Paso is a much bigger city and as such more liberal in nature. But I haven't looked into it that deeply.

I think we can exclude El Paso itself from the 2018 races because of the hometown effect Beto had but Lupe Valdez did worse than Wendy Davis in the RGV suggesting that there may be an actual R trend in this region especially because then you can't use turnout as an excuse.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/30/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-texas-rio-grande-valley/

There was this article.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Wisconsin Megathread v2: Bye Felicia! on: February 14, 2019, 01:49:27 pm
https://www.wisn.com/article/wisconsin-supreme-court-brian-hagedorn-augustine-academy-gays/26343309

Well, looks like the Republicans picked the wrong wagon to hitch themselves to for the supreme court election.


In these random spring elections you want to get your base to turnout

25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Amazon pulls out of NYC on: February 14, 2019, 01:45:42 pm
Good for the country overall and sends a message but bad for NYC.

Its a prisoners dilemma situation.
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