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October 23, 2017, 02:04:18 pm
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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Congressional Districts - 2016 ACS estimates. on: Today at 07:58:34 am
The Census Bureau has recalculated the 2010 Census results for the 115th Congress (2017-2019) for Virgnia, Florida, North Carolina and Minnesota.

Did something not-so-nice happen in Minnesota?

What did they find?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread: Polls show tight race, McConnell sweating like a Doug on: October 19, 2017, 10:21:55 am
Can we at least make the title punnier?

I'll try.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rep. Pat Tiberi (OH-12) to resign on: October 19, 2017, 06:01:16 am
A leader of the House Ways and Means committee resigns early. Tax reform must be going swimmingly!
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Fox News Alabama senate poll tied on: October 18, 2017, 03:00:47 pm
Should be noted that Jones has been running ads 100% unopposed since in the runoff. Moore and the Republicans have essentially ceded the airwaves to him.

Why is that? Do we know? The Mercers can afford ads.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / VA-Quinnipiac: Northam +14 (LV) on: October 18, 2017, 11:05:59 am
Northam 53 (+2)
Gillespie 39 (-2)
Hyra 2


https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2493

6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Scaramucci strikes again on: October 17, 2017, 08:11:49 pm
Whoever did this must be exposed and fired immediately.

It may be too late to win back all those canceled subscriptions.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump:"You could ask General Kelly if he got a call from Obama." on: October 17, 2017, 03:07:46 pm
I thought I was inured to anything Trump does... but his using General Kelly to make this point when Kelly's son was KIA is making me literally sick to my stomach. This is unbelievable.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VA-CNU: Northam +4 on: October 17, 2017, 09:41:37 am
Gillespie keeps coming in at 44% or 42%. Dems can hope he has a ceiling.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Generic Congressional Ballot Megathread on: October 17, 2017, 09:36:43 am
Unless there is a complete civil war, Republicans will come home and close that gap some.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump mocks Pence about his views on religion, abortion & homosexuality on: October 17, 2017, 08:29:50 am
Obviously a joke, though a ill-chosen one.

Literally gallows humor.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Religious Right hypocrites cheer Trump at summit on: October 17, 2017, 05:39:19 am
If he had run as a Democrat, religious conservatives would have denounced him as a mortal threat to America by pointing to these facts, and quite possibly would have told their congregations that they would go to hell if they voted for him.  Jesus said that we could judge a tree by its fruits.  Does this sound like the kind of fruits of a true Christian?

Hold on a second. Isn't this logic more-or-less criticising Christians for not voting as bigoted sectarians? You're saying that it's hypocritical for Christians to vote for non-Christians regardless of policy as they should only support Presidential candidates they believe are 'saved' by God. That's basically a religious test. To stay consistent, should evangelicals refuse to vote for Sanders in 2020 on the grounds that he's Jewish?

I think evangelical support for Trump should be celebrated by progressives as it shows how admirably non-religious and accepting of cultural liberalism (divorce, sexual liberation) American conservatives are, instead preferring a more wide-based, secular American nationalism. It should be proof, if anything, that liberalism won the culture war of the 90s and 00s.

We're coming off of 30 years of these Republicans criticize Dem candidates for their personal lives and alleged personal sins, and encouraging Republican candidates to promote their own moral values and relationship with Christ. No one is imposing a religious test. We're just noting that they threw away thirty years of saying "personal values matter" when they swooned for Trump.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: South Dakota High School cancels homecoming after racist stunt on: October 14, 2017, 09:30:26 am
I know you're NOT smarter than this, but there is literally zero evidence that people from less diverse areas are more "intolerant" than people from diverse ones.

Dunno, the Pennsylvania 2016 county swing map is pretty compelling. For a different example, the areas that voted heavily for Brexit tended to be places that were not diverse at all or which were historically not diverse, but suddenly had an influx of migrants from Poland or Romania (e.g., East Anglia.)
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: South Dakota High School cancels homecoming after racist stunt on: October 14, 2017, 09:26:17 am
I applaud their intolerance of racism but the vast majority of students are not racist.

[citation needed]
You've met students right?  Sure, some are horrible people, but most aren't racist......


.....oh, I see you're from MA.  Nevermind.

You must be new to Nebraska if you're shocked and surprised by racism towards Native Americans in places near reservations, I guess. 
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: South Dakota High School cancels homecoming after racist stunt on: October 14, 2017, 07:53:55 am
I applaud their intolerance of racism but the vast majority of students are not racist.

[citation needed]
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Religious Right hypocrites cheer Trump at summit on: October 14, 2017, 07:51:09 am
Meanwhile, liberal hypocrites in Hollywood lecture us on ''women's rights'' and the evils of Trump while their industry is chock full of sexual predators. Where is your criticism of their hypocrisy? These people routinely help finance liberal campaigns, so you can't say they have no significant political influence.

1. When the news about Weinstein came out, everyone in Hollywood disowned him quickly, and he disappeared. Compare that with the Access Hollywood tape, where Republicans dropped Trump for a week and then came rushing back to defend him, and still love him.

2. Republicans who are gleeful about Weinstein like it's the Democratic AH tape (wtf? He's not a politician) are absolutely clueless how bad their behavior makes them look because it just reminds everyone about President Pussygrabber's bragging and behavior. You've been buying the Republican applause line that "Hollywood is the Democratic party" that you missed that it's not actually true.

By by all means, people like Donald Trump, Jr. and Tucker Carlson should continue to express outrage about Weinstein, it just gives more opportunities to remind America what they support and make apologies for in their own leader. 
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: US withdrawing from UNESCO at the end of 2018 on: October 12, 2017, 09:34:19 am
U.S. has been on the outs with UNESCO for a really long time. I'm surprised we're still members.

Anyone remember which former Republican presidential candidate based his run on his extensive experience with UNESCO?
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Most influential year or 12-month period in US history? on: October 10, 2017, 08:38:11 am
4)1864: The Civil War wasn't won until the following year, but it was pretty much decided in 1864. The election was also important; I'm not sure how different President McClellan would have been from President Johnson, but a more Democratic Congress probably wouldn't have ratified the 13th Amendment and certainly would have handled Reconstruction differently.

I was going to nominate this one. 1861 and secession could be said to be driven by long-term events, but 1864 is when history reached a fork and the Union could have given up on the war effort.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: ME Sen. Susan Collins (R) Considering Retirement on: October 10, 2017, 08:33:18 am
Considering the odds she'll be serving in the minority after 2020, and better than even odds with a Democratic president, staying in D.C. can't be that appealing.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WY-SEN (NYT): Erik Prince considering Barrasso primary on: October 10, 2017, 08:32:18 am
Senator John Barrasso? I didn't know that there were Italians in Wyoming.

There are at least two...
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Congressional Districts - 2016 ACS estimates. on: October 09, 2017, 12:36:23 pm
Armory Houghton is still alive at age 91, so I guess carving up NY-23 is still forbidden.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump wants border wall, other restrictions to be paired with DACA on: October 09, 2017, 09:36:31 am
Who was The Last Guy Trump Talked To who caused this u-turn? Miller, Cotton, or both?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WY-SEN (NYT): Erik Prince considering Barrasso primary on: October 08, 2017, 08:38:21 pm
Whenever I've seen Barrasso on tv, he's been the most bloodless, consistent, down-the-line conservative a Republican could hope for.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th) on: October 05, 2017, 10:22:20 pm
Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"



lol, what

I don't think Gillespie really wanted his dog whistle to get picked up by Trump's bullhorn... but maybe if we're lucky Ralph will get a "nickname"
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th) on: October 05, 2017, 10:03:49 pm
Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"

25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Congressional Districts - 2016 ACS estimates. on: October 05, 2017, 09:41:31 pm
What district would be lost in Alabama?

Assume with Republican control you have to have:

1. VRA district in Birmingham, Selma, and Montgomery (AL-7)
2. Mobile-based district (AL-1)
3. Suburban Birmingham district (AL-6)
4. Huntsville-based district (AL-5)

1st district has to expand east into the 2nd district.
5th district has to expand south into the 4th district.

AL-3 and AL-4 have the most senior Republicans who also happen to be too young to retire. If driven by personalities and the same people are in office in 2020, I imagine Martha Roby loses her seat with some bits going to the 1st (rural south) and 7th (Montgomery) and the rest merging with the 3rd.

An alternative is to divide up the 4th with the 5th taking a big chunk, the 6th getting rid of rural counties south of Shelby and going west, and the 3rd taking up the populous east of the district.




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