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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-18: DesJarlais 2: Electric Boogaloo on: October 03, 2017, 08:25:28 pm
Lot of pro-life Catholics in WPA who won't look kindly on this

They all voted for Trump. They won't care about personal behavior if he votes as they like.
27  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Congressional Districts - 2016 ACS estimates. on: October 03, 2017, 08:23:48 pm
Is it possible that Illinois will only be required to have 2 BVAP majority districts? 

The question is more whether the Democratic legislature would draw a map going down from 3 to 2.
28  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Post Ironic facts about US Political Geography here on: October 03, 2017, 03:52:40 pm
Disney World is in Orange County, and Disneyland is in another Orange County.  Both of these Orange Counties had long, uninterrupted streaks of voting for Republican presidential candidates, and when those streaks were finally broken they voted for different Democrats who each lost the election despite winning the PV.  (Orange County, CA voted Democratic in 2016 for the first time since 1936; the Florida one did so in 2000, a first since 1944).

The Orange candidate lost Orange County, CA.
29  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Congressional Districts - 2016 ACS estimates. on: October 03, 2017, 03:51:48 pm
Surprised AZ-7 is the fastest growing district in the state.
30  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Conservative political correctness on: October 02, 2017, 07:11:34 pm
The incessant pearl-clutching over literally everything to do with the LGBT+ community, especially when it comes to media visibility and representation. Four words of pure steer-derived manure for the ages: THINK OF THE CHILDREN

This is so much less of a problem than it was in the 90s, happily.

This is used by both the left and the right though.  Michelle Obama's highly praised 2016 convention speech covered a number of topics, but the parts that received the highest praise were 'THINK OF THE CHILDREN.'

Wasn't that about Trump's sexual harassment and mocking a disabled reporter, though? That's different than "gays should disappear."
31  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Conservative political correctness on: October 02, 2017, 04:45:24 pm
The incessant pearl-clutching over literally everything to do with the LGBT+ community, especially when it comes to media visibility and representation. Four words of pure steer-derived manure for the ages: THINK OF THE CHILDREN

This is so much less of a problem than it was in the 90s, happily.
32  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Congressional Districts - 2016 ACS estimates. on: October 02, 2017, 04:33:06 pm


12 North Carolina   849  Charlotte
4 North Carolina    847  Raleigh


Pretty impressive to have two Democratic vote sinks also be the two fastest-growing districts in the state. Although I suppose the NC Leg had the 2015 or 2014 data in hand when they redistricted based on 2010 Census data so it's not a coincidence.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread: Jones (D) v. Moore (R) on Dec. 12 on: October 02, 2017, 04:30:37 pm
Libertarian Ron Bishop is running as a write-in candidate. Could he be a potential spoiler by siphoning a small number of votes from Moore?

More likely to hurt Jones by splitting the anti-Moore vote that Jones would need to sop up to have any hope of winning. He'd be like Gary Johnson to Hillary.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alabama Megathread: Jones (D) v. Moore (R) on Dec. 12 on: October 02, 2017, 04:29:57 pm
35  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump's Katrina: The ongoing crisis in Puerto Rico on: October 02, 2017, 08:20:13 am

Yeah, but I remember that this was supposed to happen in 2016....
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Weirdest congressional races since 2000? on: October 02, 2017, 08:19:28 am
NJ-Sen 2002 was pretty wild at the end, with Republicans feeling robbed of the opportunity to run against Torricelli.
37  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: GOP Prepares for Intraparty Civil War on: October 02, 2017, 08:13:34 am

If he actually does it, I will be extremely impressed.  But I think it's unlikely.

He's a pretty down-the-line conservative by the standards in place before Trump. I wonder if he would go further than not supporting the national Republican party or rebranding himself an "Independent Republican." I can't imagine that the Democrats or any third parties would appeal to him.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WI Senate 2018 - John Bolton endorses Nicholson on: September 30, 2017, 11:59:30 am
Trolling and replies to trolling deleted. --Mod.
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tom Price plane "scandal" on: September 28, 2017, 11:00:04 pm
He's going to be gone. Tomorrow more likely than not.

Republicans really, really do not want confirmation hearings for a new head of HHS, nor can I imagine who would want that job in the current policy environment.
40  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Tom Price plane "scandal" on: September 28, 2017, 10:28:37 pm
What's with the scare quotes?

I'm not the OP, but my interpretation was that this would be a major scandal in any other administration.  But there have been so many in this administration that this is barely noticeable.

I was thinking that people like Price lose their jobs in normal administrations because they distract the government from passing legislation and launching new initiatives and sap the president's political capital. Since this administration has no real goals or plan to execute beyond undoing Obama's regs and supporting energy companies, and Trump is already down to minority support, it hardly matters if a cabinet secretary causes an embarrassing news story.
41  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1 on: September 28, 2017, 10:15:08 am
Fox News, Sep 24-26, 1017 RV (change from last month)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (-2) (New low in this poll)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Do you think Donald Trump has the temperament to serve effectively as president? (change from Dec.)

Yes 37 (-7)
No 59 (+7)

Remarkable that "strong" got worse while overall ticked up.

That's consistent with a bump from DACA and debt deal.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AL-SEN Megathread: Trump calls Strange "tallest human being Iíve ever seen!" on: September 28, 2017, 05:16:07 am
1) Demonstrate how McConnell is corrupt and incompetent.  I won't dispute the claims if you articulate how.

He's not particularly corrupt by Republican standards, but in 2017 he's amply demonstrated his incompetence in actually passing legislation or doing anything constructive, as opposed to his deep strategic and tactical competence in obstructing a Democratic majority or President from accomplishing anything. Look at the budget process, health care repeal, and so far what little he's contributed to moving forward tax "reform."
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early AL-SEN 2017 predictions? on: September 27, 2017, 10:41:03 am
Heart says Safe R, brain says Likely R only because Moore is such an unpredictable candidate in an unpredictable year. I think I would still be absolutely shocked if Moore lost because it's Alabama.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: September 27, 2017, 10:37:51 am
Why was the Dem performance so poor in the Florida House race yesterday? Was it because Diaz had his machine to pull out voters for the Senate race in his old district?
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TN-SEN: Corker retiring on: September 27, 2017, 07:35:26 am
I know it has not been mentionned but what about Tipper Gore, Karenna Gore or Kristin Gore for the Democrats?

Karenna lives in NY, Kristin in LA.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment Megathread on: September 26, 2017, 08:45:14 pm
Is there a chance the Dems could convince Myrth York to run? She'd have to move.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: September 26, 2017, 08:44:20 pm
Apparently Rockingham HD 4 is the 4th most GOP seat in the entire state of New Hampshire.

Really? At only 59% Trump?
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: September 26, 2017, 08:36:02 pm
David Nir is updating the DKos chart as I type and the swings to R in the Florida seats are deceptively huge. -14% for Senate, -37% for House against Clinton-Trump.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: September 26, 2017, 08:22:45 pm
The insurerís allure
For valor were pure Kari Lerner (D, Rock 4)
50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread on: September 26, 2017, 08:21:42 pm
Unofficial: Lerner (D) 901; Headd (R) 862; Jarvis (L) 41

Lerner wins 50%-48% vs. Trump beating Clinton 59%-36%.

+25% swing in win margin toward the Democrats over Trump-Clinton!
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