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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands on: April 13, 2018, 09:59:00 am
The bellwether municipality of the general election last year was Apeldoorn, which nonetheless voted yes in the referendum. Perhaps this suggests that the referendum would have passed had there been a local election in every municipality.
On the other hand, the municipality of Heemskerk (which also has some fame as bellwether municipality) voted no.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands on: April 11, 2018, 01:46:39 am
Did that fringe anti-revisionist Communist remnant hold its seats?
NCPN, the New Communist Party of the Netherlands:

They gained one and lost one:

De Fryske Marren: 2 seats (+1)
https://verkiezingensite.nl/uitslag/de-fryske-marren/GR2018

Heiloo 1 seat (-1)
https://verkiezingensite.nl/uitslag/heiloo/GR2018

In their former stronghold Oldambt, the NCPN doesn't participate anymore. However, the VCP (United Communist Party), that broke away from the NCPN does take part. That party won 3 seats (-1)

https://verkiezingensite.nl/uitslag/oldambt/GR2018
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: An unexpected "No" in the referendum on: March 30, 2018, 08:08:49 am

I always though SGP was the party of the former Gereformeerde Kerken while CU was the party of the former Hervormde Kerk, but apparently there isn't much of a difference (did some quick background research). Still, CU vote is geographically clustered (not as extreme as the SGP) so I imagine there isn't a lot of CU/other party crossover. Interestingly enough there are some places in the Northern parts of the country where CU does really well but SGP scores only 2% or so. Maybe it does have to do with (former) church denomination after all? I think a large chunk of CU voters were born in GPV/RPF voting families (just like SGP voters) instead of being swing voters (they did manage to win a couple of seats in 2006 though). CU/SGP voters (especially SGP voters) may be the last pillar remaining. Until DENK came along and won 75% of voters with a Turkish background in Amsterdam Tongue.
SGP voters are mainly a member of six denominations:

Three more or less exclusively SGP denominations descended from early 19th century splits of the Hervormde Kerk (just like the Gereformeerde Kerken):
- Gereformeerde Gemeenten
- Gefeformeerde Gemeenten in Nederland (split from the Gereformeerde Gemeenten in 1953)
- Oud-Gereformeerde Gemeenten
- (and independent churches with similar history, that never joined one of these denominations)

Furthermore the Christelijke Gereformeerde Kerken, which has a similar history as the first three, but is a bit more moderate (CGK members also vote CDA or ChristenUnie).
The remaining group of SGP voters remained a member of the Hervormde Kerk, as a more or less separate group, the Gereformeerde Bond. After the merger of the Hervormde Kerk into the Protestantse Kerken, a large part of the Gereformeerde Bond left, and formed the Hersteld Hervormde Kerk.

ChristenUnie is a merger of GPV and RPF.

GPV was founded after the 1944 split of the Gereformeerde Kerken Vrijgemaakt from the Gereformeerde Kerken, a particularly messy split. Especially in the North, in Bunschoten-Spakenburg and in the parts of Overijssel and Gelderland, this church is strong.

The SGP didn't have much to do with the former Gereformeerde Kerken. The party of the Gereformeerde Kerken used to be the ARP, which merged into CDA. The ARP moved to the left in the 70s. Disgruntled ARP voters  then founded the RPF. Not that many from the Gereformeerde Kerken, which was quite main stream. RPF voters were typically from the more right wing Christelijke Gereformeerde Kerken, the Nederlands Gereformeerde Kerken (a split from the Gereformeerde Kerken Vrijgemaakt) and also evangelicals and other small denominations. Initially they wanted to join the GPV, but that was denied.

The Hervormde Kerk was a big tent church. Some more liberal members voted for non-christian parties, more conservative ones usually voted CHU (and the members of the Gereformeerde Bond voted SGP, ARP and later RPF).

From Wikipedia:

4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hungary parliamentary election April 8 2018 on: March 16, 2018, 07:00:21 am
  Couldn't find a thread about this so thought we should start one.  I'm most intrigued whether the opposition forces will be able (is there still time?) to unite behind one candidate in the first past the post district seats, and whether such an alliance would include Jobbik.

Two stupid questions:
A) How does the Hungarian system work?
B) Why would anyone on the world apart from fascists join forces with Jobbik?
It's a parallel system, so there's 106 first past the post seats and 93 PR seats, but the results of one do not affect the results of the other. In other words, it isn't compensatory. In terms of the FPTP seats, last time Fidesz won 96 out of 106 - as they also won about a third of the PR seats, this gave them a supermajority from 44% of the vote.
It is not completely parallel. 'Surplus votes' from the FPTP seats are added to the party list vote totals.



Source: Hungarian National Election Office
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: 21 March local elections + referendum on: February 13, 2018, 01:42:15 pm
Was Berkmoes the assistant or just a source?

Reminds me of something out of House of Cards...

Well, she never said that. She just said that something happened, which can mean a lot of things. And Berckmoes was a MP, so she couldn't have been the assistant.

I badly want Hans van Baalen as Foreign Minister btw.

Can't MPs be junior ministers in some capacity? Or do they always fill purely legislative functions?
Not at the same time. Banned by the constitution:

Quote
Article 57
1. No one may be a member of both Houses.
2. A member of the States General may not be a Minister, State Secretary,  member of the Council of State, member of the Court of Audit (Algemene  Rekenkamer), National Ombudsman or Deputy Ombudsman, member  of the Supreme Court, or Procurator General or Advocate General at the  Supreme Court.

3. Notwithstanding the above, a Minister or State Secretary who has  offered to tender his resignation may combine the said office with  membership of the States General until such time as a decision is taken on such resignation.
4. Other public functions which may not be held simultaneously by a person who is a member of the States General or of one of the Houses may be designated by Act of Parliament.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: 21 March local elections + referendum on: November 13, 2017, 08:11:26 am
For reference: this is the Peil.nl poll of March 9, 2014. The Peil.nl poll closest to the local elections 2014 that I could find.

7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands 2.0: New govt, new thread on: November 09, 2017, 03:33:43 pm
There are commies outside of Groningen Shocked? GL and SP aren't represented in their municipal council, perhaps the commies are in because GL and SP didn't run? Heiloo also isn't that left-wing, the VVD got 35% in 2012 and 30% in 2017.
NCPN Heiloo is a one-man operation by Willem Gomes. Only in 2014, the party had more than one candidate.

In 2014 a second councillor was elected, but he left soon after. An interesting article about Gomes is found here: https://www.trouw.nl/home/de-eenzame-communist-van-heiloo~a036c527/

Heiloo never had a history of communism, most NCPN votes are essentially personal votes for Gomes. Previously there was 1 CPN councillor 1946-1953, and CPN never returned (as in so many municipalities).
NCPN/Gomes did gain some votes though when the local GroenLinks chapter was liquidated in 2014.  In the past GroenLinks (and predecessors) were represented in the council from 1982-2010 with 1 or 2 seats. In 2010 there was a joint list with D66.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands 2.0: New govt, new thread on: October 26, 2017, 09:17:44 am
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15 on: August 17, 2017, 08:43:13 am
About 9% of Austria's 6.4 million eligible voters have a migration background.

What is the definition of a migration background? Born abroad, one of the parents born abroad, or something different?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: VVD-CDA-D66-CU negotiations on: July 17, 2017, 02:30:57 am
Are the negotiations taking longer than usual or is this pretty typical for Dutch cabinet formations?
No, it is clearly taking longer than usual. The average duration of government formations since 1946 has been somewhere between 72 and 90 days (different sources come up with different figures). This time I think we're somewhere around 150 already. But this level of fragmentation is unprecedented, and the last time a government involving more than three parties had to be formed was in the 1970s.

Different figures, because of different definitions. Formation of government after elections took 88 days on average, between 1946 and 2012. If caretaker governments (Balkenende-III, Van Agt-III, Zijlstra, Beel-II) and regular governments formed without elections (Cals, Drees-II) are included, the average decreases to 72 days.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Formation of GreenRight on: April 06, 2017, 06:14:51 am
PVV will stand in 60 communes. All out assault on South Limburg, the PVV heartland.
Based on the map in the newspaper article it wouldn't be an "all-out assault": in South Limburg they would only stand in Maastricht, Stein, Sittard-Geleen, Kerkrade, Landgraaf and Heerlen (but not in Onderbanken and Brunssum, two of the smaller municipalities where they perform very well).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8oUOXuXgAIiX4R.jpg
Participating in Edam-Volendam next year will be a bit of a challenge, there were early elections in 2015 because of the merger with Zeevang. The next elections are planned in 2022.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Formation of GreenRight on: April 02, 2017, 11:22:14 am
The PVV today announced that they will stand in five additional municipalities in the local elections, which will take place in March 2018. Since 2010 the PVV have been part of the municipal councils in Almere (where they are the largest party) and The Hague (where they are the second party), but next year they will also give it a shot in Enschede, Almelo, Twenterand, Urk and Rotterdam. Enschede and Almelo are historically industrial cities in Eastern Overijssel; while Almelo is truly in decline, Enschede seems to have found a way to "reinvent" itself and is the home of Twente University. The PVV did well in both municipalities in the general election: 18% in Almelo, 15.6% in Enschede. Twenterand is a rural municipality (Freek could probably tell us more about it); they got 15.6% there. I don't really know why they picked this place; perhaps they think they have some talented people there. Urk is the heart of the Bible Belt. They will get 2-3 seats at most there.

PVV choosing Twenterand is quite interesting. It is unlike the other rural municipalities in Twente. Villages as Vriezenveen, Vroomshoop or Westerhaar were founded for peat extraction (similar to Drenthe) and later people worked in the textile industry and in construction. It is still relatively poor, with higher than average unemployment, but it is not as bad as in Eastern Groningen. Politically it is on the edge of the Bible Belt (CU+SGP 14% together), and also PVV scores higher than in other municipalities in Twente (but still around the national average).
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Formation of GreenRight on: March 31, 2017, 09:33:47 am
Is there a polling district map for 2012, to compare?
There is this one, but the pop up windows that show the results in detail are broken

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2012/10/03/wat-stemden-uw-buren-a1483984
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Belgian Politics & Elections on: March 31, 2017, 04:37:54 am
Wow. In the Netherlands people continue to spread the urban myth that your vote ends up with the largest party if you don't vote, but apparently a blanc vote in Belgium does exactly that. Does an invalid vote (e.g. by voting for candidates on different lists) have the same effect?


This link (a Belgian federal government website) mentions that blank ballots are treated just the same as in the Netherlands: http://www.elections.fgov.be/index.php?id=3260&L=1
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Formation of GreenRight on: March 30, 2017, 02:43:16 pm
Good catch. Lewis told me about this polling station on AAD but I hadn't looked it up yet. The ones where the PvdA truly won are in Amsterdam-Zuidoost, Zaandam and Menameradiel.
And one in Winsum.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Formation of GreenRight on: March 30, 2017, 12:39:01 pm
Good catch. Lewis told me about this polling station on AAD but I hadn't looked it up yet. The ones where the PvdA truly won are in Amsterdam-Zuidoost, Zaandam and Menameradiel.

Buurthuis Sam Sam in the Schilderswijk, The Hague has DENK at 60.25%. Don't think any other polling station can top that.
Probably not.

The polling stations won by Artikel 1 are actually  quite interesting. I have been thinking about it, and I can't imagine there have been many other examples in the past of parties that failed to win a seat, but won individual polling stations. At first I thought maybe somewhere in Groningen in 1986, when CPN dropped out of parliament. But then PvdA won 60% in Beerta and Finsterwolde, so I think that is ruled out. Only possibility I can think of is maybe a polling station in Bunschoten in 1959 (or earlier), when GPV just missed out on a seat.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Formation of GreenRight on: March 30, 2017, 12:21:12 pm
Results per polling station (for all municipalities) on a map: https://maps.nrc.nl/tk2017dev/tk2017sb.php
Thank G-d that they managed to compose this despite municipalities being annoying with publishing the results by polling station this time. This is a goldmine. You can lock me up with this for three days and I won't care.

Post funny results here, y'all.

Polling station 'Dorpshuis', Zeddam, Montferland municipality. PvdA largest party, with 23% of the vote. Probably a tabulation error, in the other polling station in this village PvdA scored 3%, and in 2012 PvdA scored 24% in this polling station.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Formation of GreenRight on: March 30, 2017, 10:06:35 am
Results per polling station (for all municipalities) on a map: https://maps.nrc.nl/tk2017dev/tk2017sb.php
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: March 21, 2017, 09:12:23 am
How is it possible that some parties have more votes according to ND than in the final results as calculated by you?
Errors in reporting in preliminary results I guess. Or I made a typo somewhere. Smiley
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: March 21, 2017, 08:37:25 am
According to Nederlands Dagblad, there are the final results including numbers of raw votes. Final turnout would be 81.3% (+6.9%).


I think that's not the real final result, but all preliminary results added up. When I add up all final results from the electoral districts, this is my result (not sure if completely correct though):

Code:
VVD 2238256
PvdA 599795
PVV 1372821
SP 955730
CDA 1302156
D66 1285837
ChristenUnie 356277
GroenLinks          959481
SGP 218950
PvdD 335150
50PLUS 327160
Ondernemersp. 12569
VNL 38215
DENK                 216026
Nieuwe Wegen 14365
Forum voor Dem  187179
Burger Beweging   5221
Vrijzinnige P. 2938
GeenPeil 4944
Piratenpartij        35502
Artikel 1 28708
Niet Stemmers 6026
Libertarische P.     1491
Lokaal in de K. 6858
Jezus Leeft      3099
StemNL 527
MenS/BIP/VR 726
VDP 177
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: March 21, 2017, 08:26:16 am

On the subject I'm wondering if they release excel sheets of the vote share per gemeente like in Belgium.

Sure. Maybe not today though. The Kiesraad is planning to upgrade its results website sometime this year, not sure if results will still be added to the old website.

Results per municipality 1918 - 2012 you can download here: http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1
(select a year, do not select a province, click 'csv' bottom right).
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: March 18, 2017, 02:45:28 pm
Judging by the results I think the PVV "won" Hindustanis

1. lol

2. That's an amusingly old fashioned phrasing (I presume a literal trans. from Dutch). Where in India are these people from?
Their ancestors were from what is currently Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: March 14, 2017, 02:32:45 pm
Solid choice Smiley Never thought I'd say it, but I'm looking forward to seeing the CDA govern again.

I will cast my vote in parliament, for Theo Hiddema, #2 on the FvD list. This will be the fifth party I vote for. Pretty weird idea considering that there are plenty of people in their 70s and 80s who voted for only one or two (KVP and CDA...) parties.
Yes, I voted VVD 1998 - 2003, and CU/SGP for European Parliament since 2004. Otherwise always CDA.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: March 14, 2017, 02:16:35 pm
Nice, Dutch Conservative! Will fill it out myself after the debate, together with my seat prediction.

I am volunteering in a polling station again tomorrow, which includes counting. That's the part I am not looking forward too. Especially the first part (opening a ballot, find the red dot, sort, repeat) is hard work.
I do this in second-order elections (in my parents' suburb) but prefer to go to a watchparty with friends this time, since it's the general. May be making some shorter posts here occasionally from my phone, the quality of which will progressively decline as I drink more.

What's it going to be for you tomorrow, Freek, if I may ask? Smiley
CDA, as usual.

Not a big fan of Buma, I didn't like his style of opposition. Not a big fan of the current program, I am more liberal than the party. But I am also too conservative for D66, and in my opinion VVD is only interested in money and cars (i.e. the political wing of the Telegraaf) . Things I am not interested in. Which only leaves CDA, in my opinion. I am voting for Anne Kuik, #11.

I grew up on a farm in Tubbergen municipality, maybe that is the reason for my CDA preference.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: March 14, 2017, 01:34:36 pm
I am volunteering in a polling station again tomorrow, which includes counting. That's the part I am not looking forward too. Especially the first part (opening a ballot, find the red dot, sort, repeat) is hard work.
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